Otto von Ballpark

Pretty sure Nick examines TR's past actions in his article, and also discusses future actions he hopes for. But I will simply drop this line of discussion rather than tell you to re-read anything.

I don't think all teams are participating in Cuban or Asian free agent markets, no. Over half of MLB teams have bought notable Cuban or Asian free agents since TR took over in 2011. I do not think they were reactive.

That's great, but to use your charitable interpretation of TR's comments, you have to look at his actions too I don't think anyone EXPECTING to play meaningful games in September would settle for the Twins recent offseason hauls. I have no doubt he was HOPING to play those meaningful games, but hope is cheap.

100% a reaction to their farm system? Is that why over half of MLB teams have bought international FA during the last 3 years? Were all of them reacting to their farm systems, or did they see an immediate risk-reward opportunity that wasn't available to them anywhere else?

Well, acquiring talent is part of his job. If he's been trying for 3 years and has been shutout (or the biggest spend he could make was Ricky Nolasco), that's hardly a mark in his favor as GM of a MLB team.

I thought the same about Hughes last offseason, but he took a 3 year deal (admittedly less AAV than $12 mil). Hughes had very similar career earnings at that point as Rasmus too. Maybe that's the balance between getting some decent money/security now, and still being able to hit the market again before age 31. Although according to B-Ref, Hughes was at best a 2 WAR starter with NYY, while Rasmus has been basically a minimum ~2 WAR starter his whole career outside of a disastrous debut with Toronto in 2011.

They also said: Which suggests he will have a host of similar one-year offers to choose from. Not saying he's necessarily a bad target, but you will want to be comfortable with your backup plan.

Uh, I specifically mentioned Hughes and Suzuki in the context of being the good moves. And regardless of the specifics of the White Sox situation, their (relatively modest) cash-only risk on Abreu was mutually exclusive of their prospects and farm development.

I've seen Rasmus' name mentioned by fans of other teams too. Suggests he could cost more than you think, and it may take some luck to land him.

How innocuous is it when his efforts to follow through on the statement amount to Hughes and Suzuki and then a pile of Mike Pelfrey (twice!), Kevin Correia (for two years!), Nolasco, Kubel, midseason Kendrys Morales, etc.? While a division rival found an impact bat and leapfrogged us in the standings too? If you don't want to criticize the statement for being disingenuous during a rebuild, you can certainly criticize the results.

That's pretty good. I would even leave out the "I don't believe free agency will bring us to a playoff team" part -- nobody reasonable is arguing that, they just want the team to get BETTER, and free agency can certainly help in that regard (especially when the front office does their job of identifying and acquiring good free agents -- good meaning quality or upside/value). While no particular moves are mandated at any time, reasonably available MLB payroll and free agents should always be considered to help solve the puzzle, just as much as high draft picks and amateur bonus slots.

Pretty sure most professional baseball players are working hard to get better. But they can't all get better. At this point, I am more likely to ask, are we judging Pinto's current performance levels fairly?

Mostly right, although Pinto tore up rookie leagues at age 19-20, very much like Eddie Rosario did but without the draft pedigree. I know that's when he entered my prospect radar, and given the dearth of hitting talent at the catcher position, Pinto was pretty likely to reach MLB after that point, barring injury. And of course, since repeating high-A at age 23, Pinto has been pretty darn steady the last 3 seasons at every level. Here are his Fangraphs wRC+ values from each of his stops since the start of 2012 (MLB in bold): 136, 153, 152, 124, 168, 131, 101

Finally, given the previous dismissive comments about the "stats guy" and the on-field MLB results the past few years, it is very hard to view this research team policy of complete non-disclosure as more of a cover for a project that is some combination of incomplete and ineffective. I should know, because I employ such a strategy all the time. Basically everything else about the Twins lately has been deflecting from incomplete and ineffective work, so I am not sure why we would expect any different from its research team (even the Gardy "reassignment" has felt, to me, like mostly a deflection so far).

Also, I don't think one has to disclose any valuable details/models to offer a little glimpse to fans. Demonstrate the database/interface you've worked on... let the players and coaches talk in general terms about how it has helped them. Something like a puff piece with a little teeth, really. Heck, even just the manager/GM saying, "we're going to look at this stuff because we need all the help we can get" would put the Twins in a positive light, stat-wise (and be a refreshing bit of honesty and self-realization).

I probably used mainly Cuban as examples, but in my larger point, I tried avoiding focusing on any particular players to avoid the dreaded "so-and-so wouldn't have signed here for X reason" response. In doing some research for my post, I've actually surprised myself at the number of big international signings there have been over the past 3-4 years, and how many teams found themselves in on the action.

I guess this is your usual "he'll make the adjustments and be OK" line about players, translated for front office personnel?

You're the one who has limited this to "Cuban outfielders" and specifically just two of them. Let me preface this by saying I'm not criticizing TR for not signing any specific guy, but since TR took over in 2011, here is a list of "major" international free agents which TR has taken little or no documented interest in: Darvish Cespedes Iwakuma Chen Wada Aoki Soler Ryu Puig Gonzalez Abreu Diaz Arruebarrena Guerrero Castillo Despaigne That's just off the top of my head. The max guarantee in this group was $72 mil for 6-7 years, but most of them for around Willingham money (~$25 mil) or less, almost all controllable for 6+ years. 13 different organizations signed the above guys, some of them signed multiples. Expand it a couple years earlier (and throw in the Yankees/Tanaka blockbuster, which I intentionally excluded), and you will find a majority of MLB organizations made some kind of major Cuban/Asian player investment. Yet some unknown modest offer to Sosnick-Cobbe client Iwakuma (who ultimately signed with Seattle for $1.9 mil guaranteed, although he left money on the table) is the only documented interest I can find from TR. Why? No room in our 2012-2015+ organization? Liked the domestic FA market better? Doesn't like bidding? Bill Smith's bad experience with Nishioka? Fear of the unknown? And I will repeat: I don't necessarily think this is a fireable offense, but in combination with his actions and statements about the domestic FA market, it's an area I would question TR's strategy (or lack thereof), certainly in light of his recent negative assessment of Gardy's role in the rebuild (the topic of this thread).

What does the passage you quote have anything to do with Ortiz? I am confused. Again, you asked if there was anything TR could have done differently to speed the rebuild and return to contention. I replied that instead of treading $100 million worth of 30+ year old water in domestic free agency (and complaining about getting stymied in your efforts to spend more there), similar investments in high-ceiling international free agents would have been better. Small-market Oakland did it; division rival White Sox did it. Rebuilding Cubs did it; Orioles tried it; I-don't-know-how-to-classify-them Seattle did it too. Evidence suggests TR did nothing more than dip his toes into the Iwakuma pond, briefly, at the start of his new tenure. If you didn't want to hear that answer, why did you ask the question? Nowhere did "huge organizational deficiency" or David Ortiz come up.

Hey! I just remembered! Haven't there been a few decent starting pitchers to come out of Japan, Korea, and Taiwan recently? I see TR was in the mix for Iwakuma (Sosnick-Cobbe client) in his first months back as GM, but he declined to blow away Seattle's modest offer. I do not recall us pursuing any other international free agent pitchers.

I'm actually not picking on TR's international scouting. The problem was he has invested $130 million the past three years on domestic free agents, $100 million of that on players age 30 and over, that did very little to further the rebuild or bring us back to contention. Now, pocketing that money doesn't really get us back to contention quicker either. So the international free agents I listed were just examples of how he could have better used that money to get potential impact players and long-term assets, rather than treading water with an admittedly weak domestic FA crop.

Yeah, let's compartmentalize the roster. No sense even bidding on impact talent that's not starting pitchers. It's not like that talent could be traded for a starting pitcher, or allow you to trade other players/prospects for starting pitchers.

The Twins have never been 5th in international signings and development, outside of perhaps some window centered on Sano and 2009. And when TR took over the team in 2011, they certainly were not 5th by any measure of overall talent acquisition. That was the whole premise of this discussion -- what could TR have done differently, beginning in the fall of 2011, to speed up the rebuild and return to contention? And the fact that they have a top-5 minor league system today is fantastic, but given the immense advantage of 3 consecutive top 5 draft picks and draft/spending caps, it's not at all clear they have been top-5 in talent acquisition adjusted for opportunity since 2011 either.

You're basically falling back on, "I like our top 10 prospects." Which is great, but it has nothing to do with: why did the rebuilding Twins participate in domestic free agency for modest returns, when they could have easily participated in international free agency for potentially elite players at similar prices? This whole thing started when you asked, what could TR have done differently so far in his second tenure that would have made the Twins better and competitive faster? "Seriously bid on the major international free agent talent instead of modest domestic free agents" is, I think, a valid answer to that question, and one that does not require any hindsight benefit (the bidding and consensus opinions suggest these international players had great long-term potential, which was of far greater benefit to the 2012-2014 Twins than safe short-term mediocrity).

I sorta get what you're saying, but I can't agree. Signing Miguel Sano for $3.15 million in 2009 was great, and a welcome change from the Twins international efforts pre-2009, but it's really a different ballgame than targeting major Cuban/Asian talent. (Actually, on that note -- the Nishioka signing certainly drags down the Twins 2009-2014 international ranking, no?) The Twins, as a rebuilding club shedding salary obligations, with a depleted farm system and new ballpark resources, had a clear opportunity to get potentially elite talent for mid-tier domestic FA prices. By all accounts, they chose not to participate (or at least not bid seriously). I don't see why they don't deserve some criticism for that, especially when Cuban/Asian talents are still being signed, and the most recent results still suggest solid value in them.