Otto von Ballpark

Ah, thanks, forgot about the LaMarre option!

Per Berardino, here are the moves: "Buxton optioned to AAA. LaMarre DFA. Mejia optioned. Adrianza (hamstring) to DL. Polanco, Littell to 25-man."

I don't think a 1 or 2 game audition would have meant much anyway. Maybe it's better to let him get comfortable for a few days at the plate, in the bullpen, and in the clubhouse first too.

What price is "good enough" for you to trade Rodney? Could you find any examples from past deadlines? There's a lot of reliever for nondescript prospect kind of deals... Obviously Sano and Buxton could help, but I don't think we "need" them to contend next year. Per B-Ref, would could be 2.5 wins better this year just with an average bullpen. We could be gain another win or 2 just from Pythag / BaseRuns luck. That's like a .500 record without any improvement in the lineup or starting rotation, which is usually enough to keep one in the mix for the 2nd wild card if not the division. Keep in mind "contend" is a much lower threshold than clear favorite or anything like that. I don't think we want to be too reckless about selling just because we won't be anyone's favorite in 2019.

Not "suddenly", no, but I think there could be effects. If I'm targeting a Royals reliever next summer, I'm probably less willing to increase my "best" offer to them (or even make my "best" offer to them) if I feel like they undersold Herrera this summer. If a few teams feel the same way, it quite possibly depresses or at least delays his market. Unless you're actually getting something you want -- a prospect you care about, or playing time for a player that is genuinely blocked -- it certainly doesn't help you to deal just to make a deal.

Wilson is almost guaranteed to clear waivers and accept an assignment back to Rochester, though. So there was no urgency to audition Astudillo this weekend -- they can always swap him for Wilson in 2 weeks or whatever.

Definite no to Drury, probably no to Tate as well. Probably yes to Sheffield (even if I think some of his prospect ranking might be Yankee hype), but I don't think the Yankees offer that. The same reasons we'd want to deal Gibson (age, career performance) are the same reasons the Yankees probably wouldn't want him at that price.

There are also a lot of relievers being sold at the deadline. I don't think relievers tend to get the most return, although there have been a few exceptions -- studs like Chapman and Miller, of course, and I guess Matt Capps way back in the day. I wouldn't expect any of the Twins current relievers to fetch more than, say, Chi-Wei Hu circa 2015, or Tyler Watson circa 2017. Rodney's extra year of control might be more valuable to the Twins than to a lot of acquiring teams. For as cheap as he signed last offseason, and as old as he is, and as little non-closing experience as he has recently, his extra year is probably less valuable overall than most.

Didn't mean a qualifying offer, just a potential one-year re-sign. Depends on a lot of factors, of course, but I imagine the odds decrease if we deal him.

Check out the Twins page at Roster Resource: https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-minnesota-twins/ Anybody with "Dec'18" would be new Rule 5 eligibles this winter, like Nick Gordon. (And of course "R5" would mean repeat Rule 5 eligibles, like Kohl Stewart.)

I think if you carry that too far, you will get lower returns. There's a reason teams generally don't trade every single one of their expiring contracts, even when they are out of contention. You dilute the market, weaken your future negotiating leverage, etc. Take Dozier for example. Seems unlikely to return, but Gordon seems less likely to be ready by opening day 2019, even with a few months experience in MLB this year. He has a 70 wRC+ at Rochester. There's not an obvious decision either way. If we're close enough that a marginal win could still be useful in 2018, maybe we'd rather keep Dozier and hope for a hot streak. Or just look for signs that Dozier may not be off the cliff, and retain the inside track at keeping him on a 1 year deal for 2019 while we ease Gordon in. Take Rodney. We actually have a cheap 2019 option on him. Given our suspect pen, we might want to pick that up, if the trade return isn't particularly great (and it probably wouldn't be, Chris Paddack notwithstanding).

Looking back at our 2017 deadline, it definitely looks like Enns was a near future DFA, and Littell was probably someone the Yankees didn't want to invest a 40-man spot on either. Maybe the same for Moya, Arizona has a very good pen and had probably identified better ways to use the 40-man spot than a fringe reliever (specialist?). We really only got Tyler Watson as a non-fringe 40-man guy, and he doesn't appear to have advanced at all in the past year -- K rate has regressed, and he's still in A ball. Still a year away from Rule 5 consideration, but he probably doesn't get you much at this deadline. Likely less than Brandon Kintzler in All-Star form.

With Motter on the DL, we're already short an infielder. And Motter probably isn't a viable option even he's healthy. No way Adrianza gets DFA'd right now, with Escobar still required as the everyday 3B while Sano is out indefinitely (and with Escobar potentially leaving this winter).

Thanks for the report. Littell has been kind of middling in 4 starts for Rochester since his MLB debut: 23 IP, 3.52 ERA, but only 17.5% K rate and 8.3% BB rate (K/9 6.65 and BB/9 3.13). Seems to be aided by a 0.39 HR/9 rate, which is in line with his minor league career but we'll see how it plays in MLB.

The prospects that teams want to trade will often be their fringe 40-man / Rule 5 eligible guys already, meaning it would also cost us a roster spot to try to keep them through the winter and beyond.

Actually Pujols is doing all right at 1B so far this year. 0.5 bWAR versus Mauer's 0.6. Like Mauer, he's better off at 1B than DH as long as he can provide decent defense. Likewise, Kinsler (1.2 bWAR) is pretty much equal to Dozier (1.3). Escobar could potentially help them at 3B, maybe Rodney in the pen. Gibson would definitely help but I don't know if we'd want to trade him.

56-26 is a .683 winning percentage. That's pretty much 2006 Twins level. On June 10, they fell to 27-34, then went 57-25 in their next 82 games. (Actually they were exactly at .683 after June 10, 69-32.)

Interesting. I just noticed how little he has been an exclusive catcher too, which might make it hard to judge his framing (sample size). Only his AA season in the Braves org was he predominantly a catcher.

Looking closer at Astudillo's career path... He started out in the Phillies organization, and they indeed had him on a slow track. 4 years in rookie league ball, then a missed season (injury?), followed by a full year at A ball and a full year at high A. They gave him at-bats, and he was consistently posting 120-130 wRC+ figures, but with pretty low power and they weren't really pushing him either. And he wasn't even playing a whole lot of catcher those years either -- only twice in 6 seasons was it his primary position, both in rookie league. So he became a minor league free agent early, after his age-23 season. Then he signed with the Braves. Probably a good destination for him, they were rebuilding at the time and didn't have a lot at catcher, and indeed they pushed him to AA and made him almost exclusively a catcher there -- but he scuffled, his worst pro season at the plate (79 wRC+). So he was a minor league FA again the following winter. After a second consecutive mediocre showing in winter ball, he apparently signed late with Arizona (April 2017). But again, a good destination to target, not a lot of catching, and despite his struggles in AA, they pushed him to AAA right away. But he started slow in April, and hit the DL a few times, finishing with only 128 PA. But they were good ones, as much as anyone could tell in Reno and the PCL. He followed that with a nice rebound performance in winter league ball too. Interesting that he chose the Twins. Obviously we were not deep at catcher, but we were more set at starter than his previous two destinations. Still I suppose there was plenty of room to be third string or even backup or utility.

Motter can be DFA'd while on the DL, but I don't think we could pass him through outright waivers to send him to the minors: https://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3530 "If a player on an MLB or minor league Disabled List is placed on Outright Assignment Waivers during the MLB regular season, he must be eligible to be reinstated from the DL and healthy enough to play." Basically, they don't want teams using health/injuries to help pass guys through waivers. Since Motter went on the 7-day DL last Friday, he's not eligible to be reinstated until this Friday. So we'd have to either trade him or more likely release him.

And I thought the current Adopt a Prospect forum involved too much commitment!

I wouldn't say they necessarily screwed up -- with Escobar's modest history, there may not be a great market for him. No guarantee they could flip him for another Mejia. If the best offer is some more nondescript minor league relievers, maybe the best move is to keep him and hope he re-signs on a short-term cheap deal for our 2019 team which will probably need infield help. (To say nothing of the 2018 benefits if we're still hanging around the fringes on contention at the deadline -- we still have 10 head-to-head games with Cleveland after July 29.)

Why couldn't it be coincidence? Escobar had a .427 OPS over 38 PA in the same time frame (June 22-July 1) in 2017. He has an ample track record to suggest that his early season hitting was unsustainable.

Astudillo was a minor league free agent each of the last 3 offseasons, so front offices have definitely passed on him. But, it's a little more complicated than that. Astudillo didn't become a productive hitter in the high minors until 2017, and that season was marred by injuries / tiny sample (only 128 PA), and also in the notoriously hard-to-read Pacific Coast League. Even his winter league performances in 2015 and 2016 were poor. So it looks like teams were passing on a different hitter than Astudillo is today. (I can't really comment on his defense, although I've seen passing mention of it being below average.)

I think the mistake is assuming that Lynn was likely to return a quality prospect before this start. Yeah, he was on a decent run (although his previous start didn't end well either, and he still has yet to complete 7 innings in a start this season), but he generated little interest last offseason, and I don't think those teams were suddenly going to be particularly forgiving of his slow start. Best case, you were already probably looking at a Jaime Garcia type return for Lynn at the deadline. He could still fetch that, depending on how the rest of the month goes, if the acquiring team needs salary relief, etc. But if he has a middling month here, we might be lucky to unload him for any salary relief at all, maybe in August?