Otto von Ballpark
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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark
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To be fair, Parker, you've had similar articles this year about Plouffe and Parmelee, both of whom have reverted to career norms shortly thereafter. (Actually, maybe you should stop posting these articles about Twins who are hitting well. Post a few about good White Sox hitters for a change. ) Mechanical changes leading to a temporary different result, while not "luck" in the traditional sense, is probably pretty close to "baseball luck" as commonly understood. That said, I pretty much agree with you, although the ground-ball rate and lack of power trouble me to a degree, especially since the walk rate increase isn't that huge and he's not likely to have a lot of protection in the Twins lineup. Seems like pitchers and fielders are going to have a lot of latitude to adjust on this guy, and I'm not sure if any of his changes are significant enough to withstand those tests. -
Seth, I love your content here, but you keep exaggerating Meyer's issues at AAA, in comparison to other pitchers. "Terrible" control and command? AAA strike percentage, 2014: Pino 64% May 64% Meyer 62% Darnell 62% Johnson 61% For comparison, MLB strike percentage, 2014: Hughes 73% Nolasco 63% Correia 62% Deduno 62% Gibson 61% Terrible is Pelfrey at 55%, or perhaps Liriano at 57% back in 2011. Almost every starter in the league is between 60-66%. Meyer's BB/9 this year is a career high, and about 25% above league average (and K/9 about 40% above average), but even that's a bit unfair to him due to the pitch limit he's had most of the season. Dude's had 11 starts with 0-2 ER allowed this year where he's been pulled with a pitch count around 80 or lower, and his BB/9 in those starts is 3.3, below league average. Basically, the pitch limit gives us the full effect of his poor/wild starts, and limits the quality of his good ones. If he was permitted to continue pitching in these starts like a normal pitcher, he would almost certainly have a walk rate right around his career (and league) average. Nothing about Meyer's season deserves the adjective "terrible" except possibly his lack of an MLB promotion so far.
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- tommy milone
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Royals series aside, we have a team OPS+ of 92 on the season, and a team ERA+ of 94. There are problems on both sides of the ball.
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His bat seems OK, but the metrics are grading his glove as pretty terrible that last two years. I could see his bat falling quickly too as he leaves a good hitting lineup. Probably shouldn't be anything more than a stopgap DH, assuming he's willing to play for cheap. Same goes for defending NL batting champ Michael Cuddyer, really.
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If we call him up at all in 2014, he should make Super-2, thus get 4 arbitration awards rather than the usual 3. That's not really at issue for us (although Oakland could have made a case for leaving him in AAA longer, given their full rotation). The issue is when he becomes eligible for free agency. Probably not as contentious, because it is not as immediate.
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Good catch, I did the math wrong in the original trade thread (I left off the ~5 days he was in MLB at the beginning of July). But yeah, assuming he isn't recalled until his first start later next week, he should have 4 years team control left, through the 2018 season (albeit all at arbitration prices, unless we buy them out).
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I suggested this option some time ago, after others said we had to wait to move Correia before we could call up Meyer/May. No rule against a 6-man rotation (although it would probably be sub-optimal for a contending team). Of course, at this point, with our AAA starters all healthy and Milone added to the mix, we really don't need to keep Correia around and happy as insurance -- if he's not claimed on waivers, send him to the bullpen or grant him his release so he can hopefully latch on somewhere else, maybe even get his foot in the door somewhere for 2015. We have so many more interesting names to start games at this point, and not much time left to see them in 2014.
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I don't know, I kinda like it. The Rays have a pretty good team, no reason they can't contend in 2015 (or even continue their comeback run in 2014). This trade helps that a lot more than some package of prospects.
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Bonifacio and reliever Russell to the Braves from the Cubs.
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Martin Prado to Yankees too. They are snapping up infielders, not bats...
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The Twins are aware the July 31st deadline was for trades, not extensions, right? Jokes aside, it does seem like a weird time to extend a player. Have there been other contract extensions announced on July 31st in past seasons? I don't recall any....
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This used to happen (see my Mientkiewicz example from 2004), but I am pretty sure with tweeting and live blogging, anything that gets to the league office by the deadline is getting to the public within minutes too.
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Again, no. If they really wanted a bat, maybe we'd fetch one of those guys for Willingham, but KC would be a detriment to that deal. Can you imagine the (well-deserved) riot among any contending team's fanbase if they added career 83 ERA+ (peak 97, current 79) "I don't want to pitch out of the bullpen" Kevin Correia? Particularly NY. Maybe a more fringe contender will take him out of desperation in August, but the Twins will get virtually nothing in return but salary relief, mark my words.
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True. This confirms mostly what I've been saying: nobody wants to add a Kevin Correia type at the July 31 deadline. (Although I was a bit surprised that someone wanted to add a Sam Fuld at the deadline. ) Mediocre position players are easier to trade -- usually they offer some kind of positional flexibility (Drew) if not upside. Although Willingham and Suzuki have very limited positional flexibility... in any case, KC level mediocre pitchers are more likely to move in August if someone is desperate (for minimal/no return, of course).
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Reports of the Mientkiewicz deal in 2004 only surfaced after the deadline. Of course, nobody was able to live-tweet it either...
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It appears the dust has settled, and Nick Franklin is the closest thing to a prospect in this deal DET gets David Price SEA gets Austin Jackson TB gets Drew Smyly and Nick Franklin Not crazy about it from the Mariner's perspective. Depending on how you view Franklin, seems kind of low-upside for the Rays considering that Price is still controlled through 2015 (although as I mentioned previously, this return keeps them in the 2014 race more than prospects would have, if that is still a consideration).
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Just saw a good tweet: Smyly and Franklin to Tampa hardly means the Rays are giving up on their 2014 comeback bid either.
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Stephen Drew to the Yankees too, for Kelly Johnson.
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While watching MLB Trade Rumors today, I learned the following: All three of the players the Marlins received last July for Ricky Nolasco have been waived since (two within 3 months of the trade, and two have also been waived multiple times). The Marlins also sent some international bonus slot money to the Dodgers in that deal. So basically, the Dodgers had to give up virtually nothing to get Nolasco for a half-season commitment at $5.5 million salary. 5 months later, the Twins guaranteed him $12.5 million per season for the next four years...
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There is no way the Yankees take both Willingham and Correia, particularly not if they have to give up anything. Actually, maybe taking Correia would be what the Yankees would have to pay to get Willingham.
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I've got news for you John: there is another trade deadline of August 31st! Willingham and Correia are probably more likely candidates for August waiver claims/trades anyway.
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While I tend to agree, Milone would get decent money in FA, it would be better to use ERA+ to compare. He's behind Arroyo in that measure, and just a bit ahead of Feldman. Maybe a Hughes-esque 3/24, up to 3/30? Same age as Hughes last year, obviously better than Hughes 2013, but perhaps less pedigree/upside which still might count for something at age 27.
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Article: Trade Candidate: Brian Duensing
Otto von Ballpark replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I know you are joking -- but I'm not sure I get it (or you are mis-remembering things). Morneau is the only Twin I can recall who was dealt to the Pirates, and he didn't do anything for them. Worley was sold. Liriano signed there as a free agent. -
Article: Trade Candidate: Brian Duensing
Otto von Ballpark replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think the days of Hector Carrasco for Lew Ford have passed, even for Trader Terry. Although come to think of it, we could probably still get Lew Ford for Duensing, assuming we can convince the Long Island Ducks to give up their hitting coach. -
Article: Welcome to the new Twins Daily!
Otto von Ballpark replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Just noticed Seth's "Trade Candidate: Brian Duensing" article in the sidebar... but it isn't listed in the Minnesota Twins Talk forum, despite being from today and having several replies within the past few hours. I saw (and still see) articles from Monday in the forum ("Monday Morning Madness" and Gleeman & the Geek podcast), so maybe it's something about how this particular article is classified? (EDIT: Now I see the Duensing article in the forums, just took an hour or so?) I LOVE how the full "Monday Morning Madness" and Gleeman & the Geek articles show up in the forum view! I use the forum as my gateway to the site, and it was always a pain having to leave a forum thread to read an article, then find my way back to the forum.
