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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I think Cleveland is on the hook for Belisle's salary, less the minimum while he is on our roster. I think we could release him with nothing further owed.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I guess it starts tomorrow (Sunday): http://m.startribune.com/odorizzi-might-have-the-matchup-he-needs-to-get-going/486355651/
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    No, Magill is out of options.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    From that link: Too bad that drug dealer didn't accidentally FaceTime Matt Belisle instead...
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Here's the valuation link again: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/valuing-the-2017-top-100-prospects/ I think you'd need at least one 55 FV position player or 60 FV pitcher to lead the package. The only Twins prospect meeting that definition right now is Lewis.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I appreciate your research. I dug it up again because I was curious: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/30185-article-three-potential-catcher-upgrades-on-the-trade-market/?p=755853 I think you may have made a mistake: Gonsalves and Gordon were both 50 FV in the 2018 Fangraphs preseason list. Using the values at the link you posted, that would only be $34 mil value, not $50 mil. (Gordon was listed at 55 FV last year, but downgraded this year, which I guess is also an example of how hard it is to peg values on these guys.) And I don't think you can just add another 45-50 FV prospect to make up the difference either, or you will really be promoting quantity over quality. 50 FV prospects aren't that rare -- across the Fangraphs preseason lists, there were 97 this year. (Plus 42 more at 55 or better.) Virtually every team in baseball could match the package you proposed for the Twins, at almost any time. What would incentivize the Marlins to accept it right now? Additionally, the leader in 50 FV prospects? The Marlins, with 7. They probably need additional 50 FV prospects less than any other team in baseball. (Especially one like Gordon, who was also listed as "low variance" meaning he has a higher floor rather than a higher ceiling.)
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    The other poster quoted total playoff odds, including wild card.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Aren't we talking about Realmuto? What does it matter if people would trade Dozier or Reed or Odorizzi or whomever for Graterol?
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    The Marlins could definitely wait. They didn't trade Realmuto in their purge last winter, and they still have 2 years control after this one. But they might not get any more for him by waiting. Acquiring teams would lose the benefit of having him in the 2018 pennant race / postseason, and Realmuto's performance could regress too (note his current superlative 140 wRC+ consists of largely the same peripherals as last year's more pedestrian 105 wRC+, except for +.053 ISO -- is that more real power development, or a half-season statistical variation?). Not to mention the increased injury risk for catchers -- Lucroy's 2015 season is a reminder of that (a foul ball broke his toe, then later in the season he had a concussion).
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Graterol is an exciting pitcher with very little experience in low A. That's worth something, but it's not exactly a rare currency in baseball either. There's a reason he's not in top 100 lists quite yet.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I wouldn't put a whole lot of stock in Keith Law vs the consensus of BA, BP, and MLB. Additionally, I hadn't looked before, but Sickels had Ortiz ranked 80th before 2016, and 120th before 2017 (although noted he was in a group who could have a case for the 80's). He was 20 in AA but not particularly effective or durable. (Note he's almost 23 now, still in AA, and still hasn't thrown 100 innings in a pro season...) It's quite possible both the Rangers and the Marlins valued him closer to BA/BP/MLB/Sickels. Jeffress has had an interesting career. He's had quite an effective run out-performing his peripherals in Milwaukee. It just didn't work out in Texas, and they were out of the race in 2017 and probably not interested in taking him to arbitration again. I also wouldn't put too much stock in the age/control difference between 2018 Realmuto and 2016 Lucroy because the 2016 Rangers didn't have the option of trading for 2018 Realmuto in 2016. Age and control are absolutely points in 2018 Realmuto's favor, but how that translates to market value in 2018 is quite an open question. Obviously I don't think it's reasonable to suggest Realmuto could be had for Kepler or Graterol, but I also don't think we can use Keith Law's ranks for Brinson and Ortiz as some kind of gold standard either.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I assumed this was going to become the "Not-So-Fun With Numbers" thread. Here's another one: Matt Belisle as a Twin vs. the Red Sox has allowed 12 runs in only 4.1 innings. That's 12 runs vs 13 outs, for a 24.94 RA9. (3 runs were scored as unearned so his ERA is only 18.71, although it was a 2 out error followed by a 3 run HR situation, make of that what you will.)
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Did that midseason update include 2016 draftees and international signings? By BA, BP, and MLB, Luis Ortiz's ranking was a bit lower than that and virtually unchanged between 2016 and 2017 (ranging from 64-73 and 62-79, respectively).
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    There's an argument that Lewis/Kirilloff is a better tandem than Brinson/Ortiz -- Brinson is top 20 like Lewis but was having a pretty mediocre season in AA at the time. And Ortiz was only ranked 62-78 that following offseason, and wasn't really rising or answering questions with his performance or durability. The recent revelation about Lewis' health would have to be a factor too, but I could see a fair number of teams preferring Lewis/Kirilloff. And Lucroy was paired with 3.5 seasons of RP Jeffress who was a closer with a 2.22 ERA at the time. Maybe if Miami added Kyle Barraclough? And of course what would you say now if Lucroy hadn't exercised his no-trade clause and was dealt to Cleveland instead for only one 1 top 100 prospect (albeit a catcher, Mejia)? Would that have been the absolute price for predicting future deals? There's a lot of room for variations in valuation beyond prospect ranks. Not enough to call Kepler/Gonsalves/Gordon a headliner -- but enough that it is quite possible this deal won't involve two top 50 prospects.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I absolutely agree with you there's no way Kepler, Gonsalves, or Gordon could headline such a deal. Maybe they could be accessories, but not headliners, even bundled together. I think Kirilloff and Lewis could possibly do it bundled, though. Frankly they're not far from meeting your "2 top 50 prospects" guess -- at MLB.com right now, Lewis is #13 and Kirilloff is #71 -- that doesn't include 2018 draftees yet but I think it also may not fully reflect Kirilloff's fast rise. Houston is about the only club that could match Lewis, and I think they'd be unlikely to include both #10 Tucker and #11 Whitley. If the Astros include one of those two, and #54 Alvarez, that seems pretty close to Lewis/Kirilloff. And a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush -- if the Marlins think the Astros deal has less than a 50% chance of actually coming to fruition, they'd probably be advised to take the Lewis/Kirilloff offer if it's on the table now, even if they pegged it at 10% less value or whatever. Obviously the Marlins would have preferences and valuations beyond prospect ranks but this seems a fair approximation from our vantage point. Beyond Lewis/Kirilloff, I'd guess we could round out the offer with one of our AAA starters, a replacement catcher like Garver, a lotto ticket, etc., same as the Astros would. All that said, I'm not necessarily recommending the Twins make that offer either.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I posted in one of the earlier Belisle threads: Belisle has been a free agent 5 times in the last 3 years (3 offseasons, and twice this year in-season). The Twins are the only team to sign him to a major league contract during that span -- and we've done it twice.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I think some people use "back of the pen" to describe the best relievers on a team. Here is a recent article on the Kelvin Herrera trade that does so: https://sports.yahoo.com/5-things-know-nationals-pitcher-021959562.html To me, it sounds more like the worst, so I just avoid the phrase entirely.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    They could do both, like the 2009 Twins! (I know, technically a tiebreaker and not a playoff)
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Ichiro says your assumption that jerseys can only have last names is flawed.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Through 4 games, batters are hitting .438 off Belisle. He's arguably failed both of his tests as a mop-up man too, only getting 3 outs with a 6 run lead vs Cleveland, and only 3 again today trailing by 5.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    How many "established player for established player" swaps do you see at the deadline? Also, if your relief target has a "good track record" they will probably be near free agency anyway. Might as well keep Lynn if he is performing well and you still want to contend in 2018; or, if you are out of the race for 2018, trade Lynn for a prospect and sign your relief target in the offseason.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    That seems an even sillier criteria than waiting until the MWL all-star break, at least that gives the kid an honor/experience.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Kirilloff should be going to Fort Myers now, right?
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Relief prospects?
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    The "even if they don't make the playoffs" qualifier seems to indicate league MVP, rather than team.
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