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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Is this still true? I feel like they might be coasting in this regard too. The "Get to Know 'Em" campaign was fun back in the day, but it doesn't feel like they've had a particularly notable ad campaign or promotion since then. Might be part of the tone-deafness -- like they still expect the team to sell itself like it was the 2002-2010 team (as hinted at in Dave St. Peter's response to Olbermann), and the stadium to sell itself like 2010 every year. Great article, by the way!
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    We've been hearing variations of this for the last few years, though. "Player X is likely to regress some, sure, but Player Y is likely to improve too." Problem is, Player X has often regressed more than we like, and Player Y's improvement doesn't always materialize. It doesn't help that the "game changers" are always prospects 1-2 years away. I like this year's mix better too, but it's probably misleading to say that the Twins have only one major need to address this offseason. If that's the approach, they are unlikely to see significant improvement in 2015, which suggests they have more holes than that (even if we don't know all of them yet!).
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Me too. Obviously he's much younger and is still a good prospect, but he still has yet to dominate AA hitters, which is a big achievement gap from Meyer.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    I would be shocked if Berrios made the Twins out of spring training. Actually, I would be surprised if he even opened in AAA. I think he gets another couple months at AA first.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Bernier already has 85 days MLB service, most of it from 2013 with the Twins.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I would guess AA again for Berrios (Liriano path).
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Oliveros gives me a Jim Hoey vibe. Minor league flamethrower, missed age 25 season, assigned to AA past when his age would suggest... although to be fair, Hoey's control really took a nosedive after that missed season, while Oliveros has thus far maintained his career rates. Could help him in a MLB transition. Glad we are giving him a look. (And would have had nothing against giving Hoey a look -- as a waiver claim or minor league free agent, NOT a trade centerpiece... arg...)
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Herrmann could easily be safe for 2015. The Twins currently have nothing notable at catcher at either AA or AAA, outside of Herrmann and Pinto (not to mention nothing of note as MLB backup). Heck, not much for AAA outfielders either, at least not to open 2015. Bernier, Rule 5? You are aware of his age?
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Minor correction: Thompson was already called up a couple days ago. Also, Romero (or Guerra, or whomever) not being on the 40-man should not be an issue at this point, given the names of the non-callups you list. Florimon is a lock to be removed from the 40-man after the season anyway, no reason he could not be removed now. Pino as well, in light of his injury. Cola and Johnson probably too, even though they technically still have options for 2015, they are not the age/quality of players you generally want to protect on the 40-man for multiple offseasons (both were already protected last winter, and provided little benefit in 2014 -- unlikely that repeats itself). None of those guys should have any trade value in the next 2 months either, so there is no real benefit to waiting to cut them... although aybe we're hoping to sell them to South Korea again...
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Won't all those guys become (minor league) free agents at the end of season anyway, if they are not on the 40-man? I think Oliveros, Romero, and Guerra were all (minor league) free agents last offseason, and simply re-signed with the Twins (they all have 6+ years of minor league service). At this point, a month of MLB service and salary might be good incentive for them to sign back here (if we want them back), even if they are taken back off the 40-man roster.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, last year at this time, Mauer was largely considered a "set" option at catcher, just temporarily shelved. At that time, plenty of people here also thought Florimon was an asset going forward at SS. And lots of people here also said we shouldn't bother getting a new OF for 2014, because we had guys in the corners and our CF of the future would be up by midseason (perhaps he was, just not the guy people were referring to ). Last year at this time, people were also probably asking, how can we improve on ~105 OPS+ at 1B? Sounds like this year too. The rotation outlook was indeed worse -- god bless Phil Hughes! -- and I like our position player mix better now, but there are some similarities.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Methinks you picked the wrong team to be a fan of! Or perhaps more accurately, the team picked the wrong fan.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I actually wouldn't mind that, I suppose, if Pinto was actually playing a lot of catcher in AAA and could honestly expect to assume a good share of MLB catching duties in the near future. Does not appear to have been the case this year...
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. Dealing Pinto would drop our 2015 catcher depth to 2011 levels (with an older/worse projected MLB starter, to boot), and we all remember how that went.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I wouldn't advocate Pinto to DH, Mauer to LF, Vargas to 1B full time, but I think it is perfectly acceptable for 50 games a season or whatever, until/unless we get a better LF option.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    That is true, but the gains/losses from defense at 1B are pretty minor. I think the positional/roster flexibilty gains more than cancel it out if you're only doing it 60 games a season or so.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Of course, most of that improvement so far was a BABIP spike in his 3rd season repeating high-A, at an above league average age too. Seems to be off to a good BABIP start at AA, though. Could Michael be another Beresford? Is he considered a legit defender at SS/2B?
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I find it interesting that Arcia is actually younger than Vargas, by about 9 months.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Seems like you're trying to have it both ways -- saying TR didn't sign better guys because of the poor FA market, but then also saying he is limited in his signings by our payroll / media market. I won't dispute that the 2012-2013 FA SP market was fairly thin and that was a factor, but again, there's plenty of evidence that the Twins would have wound up with a similar haul from a better market too, just based on how they prefer to operate, which I feel is a greater factor.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    As much as Target Field revenue is a factor, you can't simply disregard TR's and the franchise's previous actions either. As much as they could be more active in FA now with more revenue, they have an abundant history of conservatism, not just in the FA market either. Also, last offseason TR guaranteed $86.75 million... but over 10 player seasons, covering the next 4 calendar years. That's still pretty modest, given the average salary for a MLB player is almost $4 million and that's obviously held down by pre-arb guys. Looked at in total, he basically signed 3 FAs at average FA prices. And two of them have looked terrible so far... so if your position is that he was biding his time through the previous two offseasons, waiting for perfect time to strike in FA, that reflects fairly poorly on his GM acumen. Again, I think it is more charitable to TR to assume he adjusted his FA budget/mindset after 2013, rather than he just previously didn't think any FA pitchers could deliver the value of 2014 Nolasco and Pelfrey.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Perhaps, although to believe that, you have to believe TR waited three offseason to find his desired pitcher and contract, and that pitcher was Ricky Nolasco at 4 years, $49 million. I think it's more charitable to assume he was too passive for a few years, and had to somewhat force the Nolasco signing to compensate.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed on the premise of the article -- I certainly endorse all of the trades made thus far in 2014. But this Pino trade suggestion is crazy (I know it's not yours, but Berardino's). Dude has been a minor league free agent (or simply sold outright) each of the past 4 offseasons. He just made his MLB debut at age 30 and has a 73 ERA+ in 10 starts. Solarte was traded by the Yankees in July, and he was a recent minor league free agent too, but he only just turned 27, has had an above-league average bat this season, some positional flexibility, and was primarily only traded to immediately replace the player the Yankees were acquiring to replace him (Headley). I know I was skeptical that we could trade Correia, but even he is in a whole different stratosphere of player value than Pino right now. I guess someone might claim Pino and take him off our hands for their own September audition, if we want to open yet another 40-man spot, but I would be shocked if we got anything back for him. (Cue TR making it happen. )
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I second this question, although I suspect Nick meant the Morales and Willingham swaps, not Correia.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I didn't mean to derail this thread, so I will just conclude by saying that this position you describe is not mine at all, nor do I wish to have a discussion on that topic. Again, I was just saying that evidence suggests a thin FA SP market was not the primary factor in TR's signing of Correia. You seem to agree on that point, given your emphasis on the Twins rebuilding process at the time. I'd add a few additional factors too, but suffice to say, I don't think TR or the Twins were looking to add anything more than a Correia type pitcher/contract for 2013 regardless of what was on the market.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    The best players generally don't reach free agency, and the ones that do are staggered over many offseasons. The 20th highest FA contract in any one offseason is not particularly impressive. Anyway, my main point still stands: TR's behavior in the KC offseason was not very different from his previous offseason or any number of his other offseasons. His one move that seemed to really buck the trend was Nolasco and it appears to have been a bit of a reach to compensate for his inactivity in previous offseasons.
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