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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Belisle is proving his versatility -- just last Friday, he showed us he could let a 3 run deficit get out of hand, and today he showed how he could keep a 3 run deficit under control. And young pup Busenitz got to see one of his inherited runners allowed to score by his hero "Matty B", which I'm sure was a thrill!
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Can we stop right here with the "no logic, no substance" stuff? We can disagree without that kind of commentary. All I said was that I think we could potentially use Escobar on a short term, ~$10 mil annual deal, and it wouldn't really preclude upgrading other areas at the same time given our budget. You seem to be treating this as some sort of wild, controversial idea, and I don't know why. And correct me if I'm wrong, but your suggestion seems to be, go after Machado while simultaneously cutting payroll by ~$30 mil? Is that right? If so, I'm going to have to disagree about the wisdom of that, to say nothing of the feasibility.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    And I still don't see how the "preventing super 2" theory jibes with the decision to NOT option Romero after his start on Friday, and instead give him a "free" day of 2018 service time to watch & learn from Jake Odorizzi on Saturday. Every day counts (just ask Eddie Rosario, who fell 3 days short this year).
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Let's look at potential payroll demands for 2021. 3rd and final year of arbitration: Rosario, Sano, Buxton 3rd of 4 years of arbitration (super 2's): Kepler, Rogers 2nd year of arbitration: Berrios, Polanco 1st year: Romero, Hildenberger, Mejia? Zero dollars committed for 2021 so far. Even if Sano and Buxton get back on track, their extended poor health and performance has already suppressed their potential arbitration earnings to some extent. Same for Kepler and Polanco, really. Rogers and Hildenberger are negligible as middle relievers. No one else from our current minor league system can possibly be arbitration eligible by 2021. And the current CBA runs through 2021 so there won't even be a rules change before then either. Heck, even Romero's own performance so far doesn't suggest it's too likely he will command a historically elite first arbitration award in 2021. Might even be lower than the Twins 2018 playoff odds. (Currently 4% using Fangraphs projections, 14% using "season-to-date-stats" mode, and 12% by coin flips.) For a team that can support a $128 mil payroll, there is zero reason to be concerned now about how Romero's super 2 status might affect our payroll flexibility in 2021.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Not even close. Zobrist had 38 career WAR when he hit free agency, Escobar has 6.5 right now. Even just hitting and baserunning, Zobrist averaged 21 runs (~2.1 wins) per year over the previous 7 seasons; this is Escobar's first season over 2 runs (~0.2 wins). Career OPS+ was 117 for Zobrist, and 96 for Escobar. Track record matters -- look at the deal Morrison got coming off his 2017 season. Escobar can do better than that by virtue of his position, but he's not getting a Zobrist deal.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I think this is incorrect, there isn't a multiplier involved. There could be a ripple effect, but that is much lower: https://www.fangraphs.com/library/business/super-two/ Even that probably overstates it for most players, because arbitration isn't an automatic raise, it has some basis in performance. If Romero had a down year or missed some time to injury, that would hold back the raise the next year.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I didn't say spend less than what's available. I think they can spend it all and include an infielder like Escobar, that's all. That won't make our roster equal to NYY or BOS, but neither will reallocating $10 million from Escobar.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Buxton's -3 wRC+ was more than enough justification for a demotion. So was Sano's 81, 40% K rate, and negative defensive value. The Brewers famously demoted JJ Hardy in August 2009 to gain an extra year of control, just before he reached 5 years service time, and he had a 77 wRC+ for the season and positive defensive value at the time. (Of course, they traded him after the season so they didn't have to deal with him personally anymore either.) And it wouldn't be specifically to keep them under that service time threshold. Just some insurance that would provide us with some little benefit in case their minor league sojourn took longer than expected, or they got hurt while in the minors. Odds are, one or both would have been back by August regardless and rendered the earlier demotion moot.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Even if you find enough money for him, Machado is not going to sign with a team that is hemming and hawing about additional investments on the level of Escobar, Reed, and Castro.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Sano and Buxton right now represent "the usual tweaking"?
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    That $5 mil figure was assuming Romero is a healthy superstar ace, and it represents less than 4% of our current payroll. Far more likely is something like $2-3 mil, perhaps less than 2% of our payroll. And he is not particularly close to avoiding super 2 -- he'll need at least 30 days. So waiting a day to send him down could be costly. Lastly, no one plays super 2 games with pitchers. I think the only major one to fall just short of super 2 is Gerrit Cole. The Rays didn't bother with Price or Archer, etc.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Maybe they should have optioned Buxton already? Using rehab to tweak his swing costs service time. Now he is only 18 days away from reaching 3 full years service time. Obviously they would much rather see him start hitting well, but absent that, they might as well have tried to get an extra year of control in case he gets hurt again or it doesn't click for awhile. Same for Sano, although he was 31 days ahead of Buxton in service time already -- but they could have optioned him a few days earlier and had some protection in case he too failed to adjust quickly or got injured in the minor leagues. Crazy to think we will only control these guys for 3 seasons beyond this one.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Stewart is repeating AA for a third year, and his improved K rate is still only league average (23%). Remember, this is a league where Luke Bard struck out 34% last year, and Nik Turley 52%. Strikeouts are a big part of the modern game, but that also means that strikeout numbers aren't necessarily indicative of special talent anymore.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    A list of Twins 40-man guys who are no longer prospects but are playing in the minors might be nice. Although I think they are always mentioned in the game recaps anyway -- I generally just read those and don't check the list at the bottom.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    No. I am saying we probably can't let both Dozier and Escobar leave without signing a replacement. The rose color must be very strong on those glasses if you think Polanco, Gordon, and Sano will be everyday MLB infielders by opening day 2019. Fortunately, assuming a similar payroll to 2018, I don't see other needs that will preclude that modest level of investment.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Coming off his season as a "formidable closer", Belisle failed to get a MLB contract. He's not returning anything of significance in trade.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Why wait a day to demote him then? $5 mil for super 2 seems high. Nobody got more than $3.6 mil this year. Syndergaard was under $3 mil, McCullers was under $2.5. And I may be wrong, but I don't think super 2 sets you up for higher awards years 3-6 -- I thought your comparable reset to the larger service time cohort each year.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Was a reference to your "showcase as many movable parts". If they needed another available reliever, cutting Belisle was a very obvious move, even before the Odorizzi start. Belisle doesn't fit with the "looking ahead to 2019" theory at all.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I hope not, because that makes the decision to wait a day to send him down all the worse. And they hadn't made that decision yet Friday night, but they did make it after the game Saturday? Seems unlikely they would move Mejia at the deadline, I can't think of a guy like him getting dealt in that fashion. He has almost as much control as Romero (both are still under 1 year, but Mejia will pass that with 21 more days in MLB), although Mejia will be out of options next spring. Showcasing Matt Belisle? Good luck with that.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Kurt Suzuki seems to have recovered from that curse nicely. Dozier was an all-star in 2015, and while he had a poor second half that year, he did pretty well for 2016-2017.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    If they're planning for 2019 and beyond, shouldn't that give priority to Romero? Maybe not to keep him in the rotation permanently, but at least prioritize his development decisions (so send him down after his own start, rather than waiting until after Odorizzi's). Service time is not an issue for Romero. It's barely a deal for any pitcher, because of the outsize effects of pitcher injuries, but Romero is already controlled through at least 2024, his age-29 season. They'd have to keep him in the minors until August of next year (2019) to gain any further control. I suppose they could push back his first arbitration season from 2021 to 2022 with ~40 more days in the minors this season, but that seems like a pretty marginal concern. And even if it was, that's more of an argument to option him immediately following his start and not wait a day.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, if there is any "messaging" issue, it seems to be the result of Romero's demotion, rather than Romero's demotion cut it off. To wit, Berardino's opening line for his game story: "Fernando Romero became the immediate casualty of Jake Odorizzi’s latest disappointing start."
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    No, but neither is Graterol -- his surgery was almost 3 years ago now. And I think 92 innings for a full season of a starting pitcher still falls well under the "real careful" umbrella.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Quoting from another thread: This is pretty skewed by selective endpoints. Romero had a terrible start just under a month ago, but has otherwise been acceptable, if rough around the edges. There are absolutely no "messaging" concerns about keeping him in the rotation at this point. I could absolutely see an argument for swapping out Romero for Mejia right now, to control the innings of the former and get a look at the latter. But it troubles me that the decision wasn't made until after Odorizzi's poor start Saturday, which suggests there are other factors (Odorizzi, Belisle, Magill?) driving this decision that probably shouldn't be involved. This should be entirely about Romero and Mejia, in which case Romero should have been optioned after his start Friday night, and a reliever called up to take his place until Mejia was needed.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know -- Molitor might be our best option at DH right now...
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