Otto von Ballpark

Do you think if the media hadn't focused as much on Columbine or printed the name of the Virginia Tech shooter or whatever, that this kid in Connecticut may have just stayed home last Friday? You're missing the part of these being IMMENSELY irrational people and acts -- there are no easy answers. It doesn't really work to "put yourself in their shoes" so to speak and think these things through logically. There is absolutely no way that "fame" is the tipping point that causes these kind of acts. Again, I'm all for less sensationalized coverage of this or any event, but let's not kid ourselves -- that's not going to help as a deterrant. It's just a matter of taste and etiquette for some of us, maybe/hopefully for the victims too, I don't know.

Lannan is from New York state, so he probably preferred to stay on the east coast and close to his hometown. That said, his arbitration estimate was around $5 million, so Terry Ryan could have offered Washington a PTBNL and gotten Lannan in trade for about 1/5 without needing to bid on him. Probably could have had him for 1/5 guaranteed anyway, against the Phillies 1/2.5 + 2.5 incentives deal.

I get that -- but that's ascribing some really rational behavior to a lunatic. Nobody does this kind of thing just to get his name in the newspapers. Tip-toeing around his name isn't going to act as some kind of deterrent.

Brock, I've heard that sentiment from plenty of people today, and after similar tragedies. But you're applying WAY too much rational thought to what might be the most irrational act a human can perform. This simply isn't something you can ignore and it will go away. However, I'm totally on board with focusing less media attention on such tragedies*, as a means of respect for the victims and to avoid sowing unnecessary fear. I just know I'm going to get some sideways looks when I bring my infant daughter to the local playground during school hours now, and I'm sure schools are going to try to "beef up" security. But it's all going to have about as much effect as taking your shoes off at the airport. * Although the fact that we're posting about it many miles away on a baseball forum suggests that we feed the media attention too, even if we don't feel like "that kind" of media junkie.

Jackson, last 3 seasons: 100 ERA+ Sanchez, last 3 seasons: 109 ERA+ (And for the record, Dempster is at 102 ERA+ for the same period) Games started and innings have been virtually the same over this span (although Jackson was obviously more durable 4+ seasons ago). It will be interesting to see what Jackson gets relative to Sanchez. The Padres rumor has them dropping out if bidding gets to 5/65 which seems like a pretty good estimate for his eventual contract. I don't think I'd give him that if I were the Twins, and I would be stunned if the Twins are actually considered serious bidders for him. Dempster at 2/26 or 2/30 (or perhaps even 3/39 as once rumored) looks pretty nice and conservative by comparison. (Especially if it meant no Correia at 2/10.) It's probably the kind of move the Twins are going to have to start making occasionally if they want to get back into serious contention, unless they get really lucky in prospect development.

I would say no to Anibal Sanchez at that contract. We all hate that the Twins are cheap, but I think we secretly like that they are frugal. I like the fact that when they have a hole/opening on the team, they don't immediately go into the free agent market and start bidding on whatever is available at that position. I think that's how the worst MLB contracts come about -- obviously some huge money deals like Zito and Soriano, but also some lower-level free agent duds too: Gary Matthews, Jeff Suppan, Carlos Silva, Jacque Jones, etc. I have a hard time believing that those guys were truly desired at those prices - but impatient teams with immediate needs boosted their market considerably. Put another way, the Twins never wake up really regretting a free agent tryst from the night before. The problem for the Twins is that they are so averse to signing free agents, they won't sign anybody, or they self-impose a spending cap (which appears to be $5 million for free agent starters) which effectively precludes them from signing anybody decent. They need to identify guys they really want, and if those guys hit free agency and the Twins have a need for them, they need to bid fairly aggressively. Hindsight is 20/20 and all, but Mark Buehrle is the most obvious example that comes to mind: that would have been about three times the largest "true" free agent Twins contract ever (Willingham, I think), but Buehrle is the Grecian ideal of a Twins pitcher if such a thing exists: good control, incredibly consistent and durable, great defense, quiet, low-profile, etc. And the Twins were already looking at some potentially long-term rotation holes last offseason. It could have been a match made in heaven if the Twins had ANY kind of a smart strategy at actually acquiring good players on the free agent market. So basically, yeah, if Sanchez isn't anything special to the Twins (and it doesn't appear that he should be), I fully endorse NOT breaking the bank to get him now. Although the other part of this is, if there isn't a special guy like Buehrle available, and you still have a need, you need to be aggressive trading (which TR has been this offseason) and also more aggressive on short-term deals for GOOD lower-tier pitchers (Brandon McCarthy, possibly Dempster, maybe even Scott Baker, but definitely NOT Kevin Correia). Willingham actually fits this mold on the offensive side of the ledger -- he isn't a superstar, and in many ways is not a stereotypical Twins type of player, but he's good, and the contract just isn't big enough to ever be really regrettable. At minimum, they need to make a move like that on the pitching side of the ledger -- it will likely cost more, but it should still fit the market. But I'm afraid it will be another year, at least, before they realize this.

Interesting. Dempster today is the same age (35) as Tewksbury when he signed with the Twins for 1997. They were both all-stars at age 31. They both were very durable from ages 31-35. Dempster is the better pitcher over that span (114 ERA+ to 103), of course, but Dempster will be making 4 times the league average salary (plus a guaranteed second year), versus 1.5 times for Tewksbury. Maybe pitching is more expensive? Still doesn't excuse the Twins wasting money on Correia, but it is interesting.

Kenny Rogers was a very good signing. It frustrated some people at the time, because it pushed Johan Santana back to the bullpen temporarily, but it allowed Santana to "ramp up" from some partial/bullpen seasons to a full season starting in 2004.

Due to a lack of Kevin Correia discussion on this site lately... Here is a list of Twins free agent starting pitcher acquisitions, by season. This list only includes "true" major league free agents (so no Carl Pavano or other re-signees) who were signed with the expectation of being regular starters at the time (so no Terry Mulholland). All attributed to Terry Ryan unless otherwise noted. 2013 - Kevin Correia 2012 - Jason Marquis 2011 - none (Bill Smith) 2010 - none (Bill Smith) 2009 - none (Bill Smith) 2008 - Livan Hernandez (Bill Smith) 2007 - Ramon Ortiz, Sidney Ponson 2006 - none 2005 - none 2004 - none 2003 - Kenny Rogers 2002 - none 2001 - none 2000 - Sean Bergman (waivers) 1999 - none 1998 - Mike Morgan 1997 - Bob Tewksbury 1996 - none (technically Rick Aguilera was re-signed to start this season, though) 1995 - Greg Harris 1994 - Jim Deshaies (MacPhail) 1993 - Jim Deshaies (MacPhail) 1992 - Bill Krueger (MacPhail) (I stopped before reaching 1991, the Year of Jack Morris.) Excepting the Aguilera experiment, all were paid at or below the league average salary except for Tewksbury, Ortiz (just above average), Hernandez, and now Correia. Interestingly, the Twins seem to be getting both progressively worse results AND worse value on each of these acquisitions. (Some might allege this is evidence that pitching is indeed harder to acquire these days, although that would require a much more thorough analysis -- it would be interesting to analyze what other teams have done over this same time.) In any case, Terry Ryan and the Twins have a pretty clear pattern here in the free agent market: they value health and strictly adhere to a fairly low, short-term spending cap. They largely avoid guys with any recent injury history (Marquis was a rare exception), and they absolutely avoid paying any starting pitchers 50% or more above the league average salary (Tewksbury and Correia will be in the 40% bracket, and the current average salary is about $3.5 million). Prior to Correia, they also strictly avoided going beyond a one-year contract (Deshaies signed consecutive one-year deals, and Tewksbury signed a one-year deal with a club option year). The Twins 2012 rotation was in as desperate condition as any in recent memory, certainly comparable to the 1995 club (after the Tapani/Erickson trades) or the 1996 club (after the Aguilera experiment). The Vance Worley acquisition was a novel approach to addressing the problem, but the Correia signing seems to be a step back -- at best, an over-commitment (two guaranteed years) with an outdated self-imposed salary limitation (~$5 million annually) to secure a pitcher who is clearly worse than what the market offered at those prices in the 1990s. The Twins might be better served by loosening those self-imposed limits, or just sitting out the free agent pitching market altogether if this is the result.

I think teams rarely trade for a non-tender candidate. Odds are they will be cheaper on the open market. Remember David Ortiz? One of the rare examples of a likely non-tender trade was Craig Monroe. Which further illustrates why such trades are generally a bad idea.

Yes, they will. An agent's job is to get his client (and himself) as much money as possible. You call back all teams that made an offer in an attempt to drive up the price. I find this to be an interesting point of discussion. What process actually leads to the most money possible? I think keeping teams in the dark might be the best strategy -- that way, the player/agent are the only ones who know the true market, and the teams have to guess at market and might overshoot it. Basically, unless the player/agent has a special relationship with a team/GM, you let them bid blindly the whole time. That means simply disregarding any low-ball offers -- it's almost certainly a waste of time to negotiate with those clubs. You may only come back to a club if you're at a decision point and you have two or more similarly competitive offers (if you come back to a club at all -- optimal strategy may be never). Given this, I am guessing the Twins do not make many offers ever, and probably almost zero offers to anything above bargain-basement free agents. All indications are that they know the free-agent game but choose not to play it. If anyone has any information otherwise though, I'm all ears. It's a fascinating process, I'm sure.

Hicks, Mastroianni, and Benson for Dickey -- I'm calling it now. Who needs a CF?

You can see Meyer's college stats here: http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=alex-meyer-3 His previous high innings total was 101, so perhaps he tired later this season in high-A. He was "shut down" at 129 innings, Strasburg-style. I like that he's already made progress with control -- hopefully the Twins can keep his K rate up. Here's a cool article about him and his pitches: http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120831&content_id=37671602&vkey=news_milb&fext=.jsp

A former first-round pick, he had a very brief but promising first call-up at age 23, then followed by a poor partial season in the majors and a dominant half-season at AAA at age 24. Interesting that the above statement can be applied to both Clements and to Parmelee. Not saying they are equivalent, but Clements' story does serve as a reminder to temper our enthusiasm about Parmelee a bit.

Also, if we're nominating worst Scott Baker moments, I was at this game: http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIN/MIN200608010.shtml And I sat very near the spot where Gary Matthews Jr.'s grand slam landed.

If we are considering games based on team importance in addition to individual achievement, game 162 in 2008 and game 163 in 2009 have to be honorable mentions. (Last regular-season Twins starter in the Metrodome!) It's a shame Baker never got to start for us in the playoffs, although pitching wasn't generally our biggest stumbling block in the postseason.

Problem is, Vizquel could probably start for this team at either 2B or SS...

I don't think Nishioka would be blackballed -- I'm pretty sure international players would be viewed quite differently. He may make less in 2013 this way, but his 2014+ earnings potential is much better if he doesn't waste another season at AAA. Although I agree the odds of him ever returning to the U.S. are very, very low. In theory, if Blackburn were in an identical situation (guaranteed stuck at AAA with Minnesota), he could probably negotiate a buyout so he could try to catch on with another club. But more likely, the Twins would just do him an equivalent favor by trading him and eating the salary. But in Blackburn's case, the Twins are still his best shot to play in the majors in 2013, regardless of contract.

Has any pitcher after Tommy John surgery said their arm feels like garbage? I guess it's good that he's throwing at all, but the rest of it seems pretty meaningless.

So what's the benefit for the Twins? Easy access for rehab assignments, but most players are going to do serious rehab at the complex in Ft Myers anyway so that doesn't really matter. Easy access for viewing some prospects, but it's a low level so there's little need to see them too frequently and the location isn't really a big upgrade over Beloit. Wouldn't the Twins be against it, just from a business competition standpoint? They probably already figure they are losing some sales to the Saints. The Tigers effectively blocked a minor league startup from using old Tiger Stadium for business reasons.

TR has a pretty conservative trade reputation, so I don't know what to expect. He might stand pat, or do something otherwise underwhelming to most fans. (Bill Smith, on the other hand, would have made a major move of dubious quality.) Unless a top starter or starting prospect is available for Span, Morneau, or Willingham (and that's far from clear), I'd be inclined to agree. (In my ideal "standing pat" scenario, Revere would get shifted to 4th outfielder / pinch runner / defensive replacement, barring injury, and everyone below him in the lineup would move up a spot.)

My Slama theory: The Twins plan to add him to the 40-man roster after the season and bring him to spring training next year (or else trade him). However, the same cannot be said for Perdomo, Vasquez, Waldrop, and Walters (and perhaps others). So, they figure it is best to use those guys in September to figure out who is getting cut, and let Slama rest. (The same theory can be applied to Guerra, more or less.) In regards to the one open spot on the 40-man roster, I suspect they want to keep some flexibility in case an interesting player comes across the waiver wire. Is this how I would approach things? Probably not. I would have called up Slama some time ago, I'm sure. But at this juncture, it's not a terrible strategy, considering how meaningless these September games are. If we expose him to the Rule 5 draft, or otherwise lose him for nothing or virtually nothing, then I will be first in line to complain. But I'm willing to give TR a little more benefit of the doubt yet. (One hole in my theory is why Manship wasn't recalled. Hopefully they are just waiting for the right moment to sneak him through waivers.)