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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    For the record, Darvish was at 111 pitches, not 120.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    So, Kvasnicka is primarily an OF again? With Rosario at 2B, I only see 4 OF on this roster.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    So Rosario was listed as an outfielder on the MILB.com roster but he's probably still pegged for 2B (Seth has him listed as an infielder here). However, that leaves only 4 OF including Kvasnicka, so maybe the Twins don't have any catching plans for him? In hindsight, that would be a slightly odd trade if it wasn't for catching depth -- Kvasnicka has an almost impossible hill to climb if has to provide value as a corner player rather than catcher.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Nice work, Parker! Fun read.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, Posey was not a catcher until his second year of college. Probably not a huge deal, but it seems to imply a few less "miles" on him. Posey's 2012 is equivalent to Mauer's 2009 in terms of OPS+. I like Posey's proven power (in both his "full" MLB seasons he's had .200+ isolated power, Mauer has never approached that outside of 2009), although Mauer's got better plate discipline and the advantage of DHing. Posey's deal runs through age 34, Mauer's age 35. They're probably about equivalent deals, considering when they were signed (obviously Posey looks better right now as he is 4 year younger). I'd be happy with either on my team, but if forced to choose for a non-Minnesota team (basically, no hometown hero bonus for Joe), I'd probably give the edge to Posey and his contract right now. Although maybe that's mig
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, that 2001 team was in rough shape, pitching-wise, after Radke, Milton, and Mays. Santana was injured (and not yet dominant), Kyle Lohse just got called up from AA I think, Adam Johnson and Brad Thomas had already struggled... And while Lawton was having a solid year (crazy to look back at his K/BB numbers), he had some issues with the Twins front office, was going year-to-year on his contracts, and was up for his final arb season in 2002. I don't think his value was as high as it might seem from the numbers.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Fun stuff, Bob. Thanks for the posts!
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Apparently 11,685 from that very day: August 20, 1978 Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins Play by Play and Box Score - Baseball-Reference.com
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I concur with Mr. Brooks. Remember, Profar is the reigning #1 in BA's Top 100 (also #1 according to mlb.com). It's not often a guy currently ranked that high is traded -- Delmon was already through his (somewhat disapponting) rookie season and thus off the list when he was dealt, and even that trade was a bit of a blockbuster (Garza was ranked #21 and Bartlett was still a pre-arb starting shortstop). Jesus Montero was ranked #3 when traded for Michael Pineda (ranked #16 before a very promising rookie season where he made the all-star team). Paul Konerko was #2 when he was first traded back in 1998. By comparison, Arcia is ranked #41 by BA this year, and only #93 by MLB.com. And he hasn't been ranked previously. Indeed, he only has 1 full year of full season baseball, he's two years older than Profar, and plays a corner position.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks Mike -- it seems I wind up doing that for most sporting events I attend anyway. I like to move around a lot. When did you get the tickets? I am curious if they generally sell out, and if so, how quickly. I suppose I could call the box office to check, and it wouldn't be the end of the world if I had to pony up $10 or whatever for the cheapest reserved seat or a scalped ticket, but hey, I'm cheap.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Congrats to Nick on the spot-on lineup!
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Curious if anyone here has done the half-price "Student Night" standing room tickets on Wednesdays at Target Field? Or any standing room tickets in general at Target Field? They are available at the Twins box office on game day, and I'm guessing that student tickets are more limited as standing room only than at the Dome, when they were in the always-plentiful upper deck general admission seats. How early do you think one has to arrive to score these tickets on a student night? Would game time be good enough? Or gates open? I'm assuming non-marquee games here (not Yankees, Red Sox, or Brewers). Any thoughts and experiences would be appreciated.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I concur about Maturi, but I think some of this is spin. The more logical conclusion is that Teague, like most college athletic directors, doesn't really care about dollars and cents, so he was willing to extend Tubby just to keep up appearances, even though it ultimately cost the university an extra $1+ million less than a year later. I'm guessing Teague views that as chump change in his pursuit of a winning program like the "big boys" of college athletics. But personally, absent any evidence that Minnesota can actually build and sustain such a program, I'd rather see a more realistic (and budget-conscious) focus on stability. Otherwise, we're basically the college equivalent of a pro team cycling through bad free agents, trying in vain to compete with the Yankees. And unfortunately, unlike the pro game where you have to pay some attention to the bottom line, college athletic programs don't seem to have any correction mechanism in place.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Sorry, I am still not seeing this. Last year, the Twins had 3 starters with positive WAR (Diamond, DeVries, and Deduno), and they posted a collective 3.5 WAR in 59 starts. That leaves 103 starts and approximately -8.2 WAR (ugh) for our other 2012 starters. Replace that with the four new guys (2 WAR over 99 starts in 2011/2012), and that's a 10-win improvement. That's a solid improvement, probably optimistic compared to most projection systems, but still less than your lowest projected improvement of 15 wins. (And Duensing and Swarzak aren't making up the remaining 5+ WAR in the bullpen either - probably 2 WAR max there.) You pretty much have to project significant improvement for Hendricks, a strong debut by Gibson, and big rebounds for Worley and Pelfrey to get to 15. I'm not sure how you'd get to your mean projection of 21 -- even if all 162 starts were started by equivalent pitchers to Diamond 2012 (a pretty crazy optimistic projection), that would still only be a 19 win improvement over 2012.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not sure I follow. If you are assuming the new guys are simply replacing the same 54 starts, there is no way they are adding 15 to 26 team wins. The Twins were 20-34 in those 54 starts last year. Your lowest projection has the Twins winning 15 additional games in that sample, apparently going 35-19 with the new guys, which is a winning percentage even higher than the Detroit's winning percentage in Justin Verlander starts last year. That's not happening. I think innings and runs allowed with Pythag records might be the best way to do this. Or even just eyeballing WAR -- the four guys last year posted a combined -4.4 WAR in 54 starts. The replacements posted 2 WAR over 99 starts, or 1.1 prorated to 54. That's a 5.5 WAR spread, so it suggests 5-6 additional wins with the new guys. That seems a lot more reasonable (unfortunately, it only takes the team record up to 71 or 72 wins).
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I like this lineup. At the very least, if used only for Escobar, it would indicate a break from the strict "batting order by position" stuff, which made Mike Redmond a semi-regular #3 hitter for a few years.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Hicks above Cain and De Aza looks optimistic at the moment too. (Where the heck did De Aza come from?)
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Echoing the sentiments about Konerko -- he has had quite the career renaissance, it's hard to bet against him yet. Swisher is pretty good too. And both of these guys have exemplary records of health and consistency. Once that is factored in, I don't see any way you can rank Morneau ahead of them right now in terms of expected 2013 performance. The optimistic 2013 outlook for Morneau looks to be about the baseline for Konerko and Swisher. (Assuming Konerko's deal with the devil does not expire for at least one more season.)
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Beating the Gophers, particularly the Brewster Gophers, should not be listed as a great achievement. I fear that was no small part of how Kill got the job here, not unlike Dan Monson and Gonzaga bouncing the Gophers from the 1999 NCAA tournament. Although that pattern would suggest that Tubby's replacement might be... Tim Miles from Nebraska? Although he was just hired a year ago...
  20. Otto von Ballpark

    The DH

    Otto von Ballpark commented on Badsmerf's blog entry in Blog Badsmerf

    I like it. Willingham is a good option too because he's not incapable of playing in the field like Thome and others, so you still have some flexibility (i.e. you wouldn't need two backup outfielders with Willingham on the roster). I'd be curious if Willingham would be interested -- some players are averse to being a full-time DH, which may be a reason why he came to the Twins in the first place (a team that is historically averse to having a full-time DH). Hopefully Arcia and/or other improving youngsters make this a viable option later this season.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    So I went to look him up, thinking he might be similar to Brian Dozier, and lo and behold -- they were born on the exact same day: May 15, 1987. Their minor league performances do look somewhat similar (prior to Dozier's 2012, of course!). Both college players. Adams actually began his pro career a year earlier (2008) than Dozier (2009) and skipped rookie league ball, but has only made it up to AA so far due to injuries. (Looks like the Yankees have been very conservative with his promotions too, not sure what's up with that.) Also, Adams has exclusively been a 2B/3B in the minors too (no SS like Dozier). The Twins could certainly use another middle infielder with some offensive upside, but I doubt they will pick him up if they have to squeeze him onto the 40-man. What's Rochester's infield looking like this year? It appears all of their primary infielders from last year have been promoted (Dozier, Florimon, Escobar) or released (Nishioka).
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Romero was probably optioned to single-A because that team plays in sunny Florida, as opposed to the Blue Jays AAA affiliate in Buffalo, NY. I have no idea if Romero is being shopped in trade, but the Twins would appear to have little the Blue Jays would need (unless they are willing to cut bait on Adam Lind too, in exchange for Morneau). Blackburn's not going anywhere right now, that's for certain.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, if anyone wants further discussion on the service time issue, I made a blog post here: How important is it to delay service time? - Blogs - Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum (Maybe I would have been better off putting it in the forums, though!)
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    This MLE calculator (Minor League Equivalency calculator) translates Hicks' 2012 to a MLB line of .233/.312/.353, for an OPS of .665. Span was around .685 in 2010-2011, but did rebound to .738 last year (right around his career average to date).
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for the work. I would be interested in seeing more detailed math. How exactly do you apply those extrapolations, both to the new starters and the returning ones? For example, the new starters had 99 starts for their old teams, and they are replacing Twins who only started 54 games in 2012.
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