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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Actually, although the shape of their contributions are a little different, Revere is a pretty good overall comp for Borbon -- their career WAR rates are almost identical to date, although Revere hasn't had a chance to play as much CF yet. (In a much smaller sample, Mastroianni compares pretty favorably to both too.) If the Astros pass on Borbon, and there are no lingering health concerns for him, I would be disappointed if the Twins don't grab him. Regardless of what you do with Hicks, Borbon could have some real value.
  2. Borbon has a career 79 OPS+ in MLB in about twice as many PAs, compared to Boggs' 83 OPS+. Fewer walks and not as much power, but it's not as if Boggs is an OBP machine or a slugger -- he hasn't hit more than 11 HR in a season (combined minors and majors) since 2007. Borbon has significantly more steals, half the strikeout rate, and better defense (basically spent a whole MLB season as a positive CF starter). WAR actually shows Borbon has been close to an average MLB player; Boggs and I suspect Wilkin Ramirez are the very definition of replacement level. Even if they are all replacement level with the bat, the ability to play a competent CF is pretty important, and with Mastroianni out, it's much more valuable to the Twins right now than marginal power off the bench.
  3. Agreed. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Twins exercised that 2014 option even if he falls short of 401 PA (assuming he wants to continue playing).
  4. Also, the "Walks Will Haunt" graphic on the jumbotron.
  5. I know, I just thought it was funny that the number was exactly identical, so I had to chime in.
  6. In light of this potential waiver transaction, here's an interesting study: Which GMs Are Most Active On The Waiver Wire?: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com Seems like Terry Ryan has been pretty quiet on the waiver front (only 3 successful claims in the past year), despite having near-top priority. I'd hope that a few of the guys currently on the 40-man would be expendable for a waiver gamble -- Ramirez and Butera look pretty expendable right now (5 catchers on the 40-man?), as well as maybe Thielbar in the bullpen, maybe Robertson too.
  7. I think we all ought to remember that Wilkin Ramirez isn't that good. He's 27 years old, without much of a MLB track record, and struck out once every 3.7 PA in the minors. I'm not sure how well that K rate will play as a pinch-hitting specialist. Yeah, he has a bit of power and could be a better bench player than others we've tried recently, but let's not get ahead of ourselves here. If a guy like Borbon -- CF, contact hitter, good speed, .283 average in almost 700 MLB ABs -- is healthy and available for free, Ramirez probably isn't worth protecting. (Although perhaps you could make a case for him over others on our 40-man roster.) EDIT: Borbon is particularly appealing given that Mastroianni is injured and a lot of his value is speed/defense which may be hampered for awhile.
  8. There's your problem. The Twins philosophy, on both sides of the ball: "Put the ball in play and let God sort it out."
  9. Allow me to pile on here: from 2004-2007, Santana failed to pitch into the 7th inning 37 times. He also pitched into the 8th inning exactly 37 times. But one is rare and the other is common? Ha!
  10. If there were minor league similarity scores, I'm guessing Colabello would be a pretty good match for Randy Ruiz. Ruiz struck out a bit more, but also had more HR power. I'm guessing Colabello will get a call-up to the Twins like Ruiz did in 2008. Hopefully he has a nice little run like Ruiz did for Toronto in 2009 (10 HR in 115 AB).
  11. As long as Correia doesn't take too many 1-0 leads into the 8th inning, I suppose. As impressed as I am with his performance thus far, I don't think that will be a frequent concern going forward...
  12. Actually the only team to "cut" Slowey has been the Indians. The other transactions were trades and simply shifted his arbitration status and awards around. Nobody has cut him again since he was released. And I wouldn't be surprised if the Marlins were not the only team interested in him once he became a cheap free agent; he may have chosen them over others due to the likelihood of opportunity.
  13. Hicks did have more power batting from the right side last year, and his left side batting stats may have benefitted from a spike in BABIP. He also struck out a tick more from the left side, although he also walked significantly more. Makes sense, I suppose, that he would be more patient from his weaker side. His 2010 season was the only one so far that really suggests he might be weakened overall by batting from the left side. And that could have been a one-year blip -- you may be able to find similar variations from other switch-hitters. That's not to say he won't have different success rates from both sides, just that the statistical evidence does not suggest he's a liability due to one side. I think it's fairly clear right now that his problems go far beyond switch-hitting.
  14. If you could count Steve Carlton as a Twin, we might have another pitcher on the list too! What's depressing about that 2-12 playoff record against the Yankees is that cumulatively, after four series and 14 total games against NY, the Twins have yet to win enough games total to have even won ONE 5-game series against them.
  15. Vin Scully is primarily a radio guy, and a play-by-play guy at heart. They generally describe the game more than TV talking heads, who are really just having a conversation (often a stupid or unnecessary one). I'm not trying to defend Dick 'n' Bert, and I never listen to them anymore, I just think it's not really fair to compare them to broadcasters of old, particularly radio broadcasters, on matters criticizing players / promoting the team's opinion.
  16. I think this is false. Look at Justin Morneau. According to BB-Ref, he has 8 full seasons of service time through 2012 (so, 2005-2012). But he also spent partial seasons in MLB in 2003 and 2004. By your suggested rule, he would have accrued a full season of service time in his second partial year of 2004 and would thus have over 9 years of service time through 2012, and been eligible for arbitration and free agency a year earlier, etc. But that's not the case. Basically, you cannot collect MLB service time when you are in the minor leagues (unless it's a rehab stint when you're on the MLB disabled list), as long as you spend 20 or more days in the minors for a season (the JJ Hardy rule). What you are suggesting would actually be a pretty massive change from that, and it would surely be better known if it were true.
  17. To be fair, there is a TON more media now than even 10-15 years ago. Especially the TV guys. They have to fill 3+ hours of air time 150+ times per year now, which was not nearly the case for previous generations. So there is a greater chance they will say stupid/insensitive stuff. Furthermore, there are greater records of it now, and we're all a little more sensitive. I have no doubt that Gordon, Carneal, etc. regurgitated some one-sided front office gab back in the day -- I'd be surprised if there was ever an announcer who didn't do that. I'd guess they probably committed that act about as frequently as newspapers of the time, but there simply is no paper trail for the announcers. I will say that recent acts like this have probably increased, due to the vast increase in media coverage and a bit of an "echo chamber" effect. Also, the Twins had a ~10 year run of relevance, which focused that attention further.
  18. Slowey was a 95 ERA+ pitcher for the Twins -- that is about average for a starting pitcher (starters tend to have lower ERA+ than relievers). Even if he wasn't durable, that's pretty good. Obviously not a superstar, but good. His problem was health: missing time in a few seasons, culminating in 2011 when I think his initial move to the bullpen was partly a response to his health issues at the time. He was definitely a different pitcher in 2011-2012. If he's recovered now, I would not be surprised to see him become a league-average starter again. It was frustrating at the time because we never had perfect information, but in hindsight it's definitely hard to fault the Twins for the Slowey saga.
  19. Rich Robertson, your 1996 AL leader in shutouts. Man, I loved that guy.
  20. Pitino certainly has a name -- I could see him being lured away for that, certainly as much as Tubby was courted by other middle-tier programs despite a thin resume after his inherited Kentucky title. Especially if a program slightly bigger/better than the Gophers winds up in the same circumstance of everybody else turning them down.
  21. And the only reason I came back to this thread was that I thought it was interesting in view of the complete series. A bad team -- whose offense and starting pitchers are shaky -- probably shouldn't be trying to "save the bullpen" with a late lead in game 1 of a series, because there is a good possibility they will lay eggs in games 2 & 3 anyway and render any extra bullpen rest irrelevant. This might be an adaptation that Gardy has to make. For 9 seasons, he managed a pretty good team with not many holes; he could better afford to "play for tomorrow" and the big picture. When your team isn't as good, every potential win is a lot more important. (Although fairly irrelevant in the big picture if you're just rebuilding anyway, I suppose)
  22. Just to clarify: I think most of us had no problem with him starting the 8th. He was cruising, pitch count was fine, and the 8-9 hitters were due up to start the inning. But there should have been someone warming, and after the leadoff double by the 8 hitter, and especially with the runner on third, 1 out for the top of the order, he probably should have been pulled. I even think Gardy normally does this -- he's pretty good with bullpens overall -- but he was trying to over-compensate for general weakness in the rotation. Also, he doesn't really know Correia yet. A quick scan of game logs shows that Correia has never completed 8 innings in a tie game or with a lead of less than 4. He's not a pitcher you try to force through the 8th inning, 4th time through the batting order, once there are already runners in scoring position, just to give a non-critical "breather" to your "8th inning guy" in the bullpen. (Not a lot of starters are that kind of pitcher anymore, but Correia's record and skill set are particularly not inclined to that task.) And I suspect Gardenhire learned this the hard way - he lost the game and had to use his "8th inning guy" anyway.
  23. I did an informal survey of MLB ballpark batting practice viewing in the forum, thought I'd link it here too: http://twinsdaily.com/minnesota-twins-talk/5919-15-get-into-bp-early-6.html#post98730
  24. An informal survey of MLB stadium home-team batting practice viewing: [TABLE=class: grid, width: 500, align: center] Home BP viewing # of teams % of teams 15-30 minutes everyday 9 30 15-30 minutes only on weekends 7 23 No regular home BP viewing 8 27 45-60 minutes everyday 6 20 [/TABLE] The Twins fall in that second group (15-30 minutes on weekends). (I haven't gone early to a weekend game in awhile, but essentially this group means the home team starts hitting 2.5 hours before game time, and the gates open 2 hours before game time. Not sure how much actual home BP viewing is practical with that schedule, though -- 15 minutes might be the max for most days.) The best teams? Washington and Cleveland generally open gates 2.5 hours before game time. Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Seattle, and San Diego also seem to open some outfield gates early. The "no regular home BP viewing" teams (less than 10 minutes offered, according to their schedules): Chicago White Sox, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Kansas City, Miami, New York Mets, and Pittsburgh. (Pittsburgh and the LA Dodgers both allow early access to each game for season ticket holders, so they can essentially see full BP. My compiled numbers above just considered access for all fans, though.) Cincinnati was the only team I encountered that had a special ticketing scheme like the Twins proposed -- $17 including museum admission, or $24 to add a ballpark tour too -- although those tickets could be bought in advance of the game and it purported to include ALL of Reds BP, as opposed to the Twins plan, which was game-day sales only and advertised just the "majority" of BP. (As mentioned upthread, Atlanta, Houston, and perhaps others have more expensive deals to watch BP from the field behind home plate -- I didn't consider those in this list.) The Red Sox Nation deal mentioned previously is pretty interesting -- basically the same as a Twins Territory membership, but it also allows you to enter the park 30 minutes before the gates open (and visit the top of the Green Monster), so you could basically see some BP on weekdays and full BP on weekends for just $15 per year. If the Twins did something like Boston, Pittsburgh, or the Dodgers, I envision a real positive fan reaction. As was revealed later by their quick pull, the Twins proposal was definitely half-baked -- I can't imagine any other team would only allow fans to buy this access on game day and also limits the quantities. You'd have people showing up 45-60 minutes early, willing to pay extra, and still potentially getting shut out, just to wait around an hour on the plaza? Contrary to what the team said and other posters here have repeated, my research suggests their proposal was nowhere near a common thing across MLB.
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