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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Romero's average also includes a dud, plus a 4 inning, 3 run start where he was pulled after only 63 pitches, where presumably a veteran would have been allowed to continue. League average quality start percentage is 45%. Twins are at 43%. Romero only logged 3 in 10 starts (30%), but he was pulled one out shy of another in his debut. He seems to have demonstrated average durability over his first 10 starts, I don't think that's why he was sent down.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Escobar was hit by a pitch in the first inning. Gibson hit Sandy Leon leading off the 6th.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    I, for one, believed the front office when they said that was due to Ervin's pacifism, as opposed to any kind of physical limitation.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Turns out that reporting was fairly baseless: https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/ramirez-not-under-federal-investigation-friend-dropped-his-name-hoping-to-avoid-arrest/ar-AAz6iIo?ocid=ob-tw-enus-1508523114409 Interestingly, I think getting released by the Red Sox pretty much confirms that Ramirez wasn't involved. I'm guessing the Red Sox would have rather placed him on the unpaid restricted list.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Update on Polanco from Saturday: https://www.twincities.com/2018/06/23/ervin-santanas-rough-journey-continues-to-drag-on-following-surgery/
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I think they have ample payroll room to invest in both this offseason.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Should we be talking about a promotion for Graterol? I know they will want to limit his innings -- but maybe that makes it more important to move him up the ladder promptly. He's at 8 starts, 41.1 innings this year already. Last year, in his first full pro season, the Astros promoted 19 year old Forrest Whitley out of A ball after just 12 games (10 starts) and 46.1 innings. He actually got all the way to AA by season's end, and was still limited to 92.1 innings total for the season, and was a consensus top 10 prospect in MLB last offseason.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Correct, we got Pearson in exchange for some of our international bonus pool. I knew Pearson was a high school draftee just last summer, but worth noting he's a little old for that group. He turned 19 just before he was drafted, so he is already 20 now. By comparison, he's a full year older than fellow 2017 HS draftee Royce Lewis and 9-10 months older than Enlow.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Polanco was the DH for Ft Myers on Sunday. I think the plan was to have him start at shortstop for Rochester on Tuesday.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    That, and just a general frustration with our performance and standing too. If Profar takes that same HBP and steals that same base with the same 7 run lead, but in some other context than coming off two bad losses* and an embarrassing line from Odorizzi, I might expect a different reaction. Frankly, maybe that is why we didn't retaliate for Escobar on Thursday -- we just won the first two games of that series, and 4 out of 5 games overall. * Of course, I'd prefer our reaction to 2 bad losses to include trying to improve our roster -- you know, like cutting Belisle? Unfortunately, we failed to do that and it looks like we possibly demoted Romero out of frustration instead (I'm thinking Romero should have been demoted after Friday's game if it was purely for Romero-based reasons -- waiting until after Saturday's game suggests other factors were at play).
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    While this is generally true, it's not a binary judgement, but rather there are different confidence levels. Maybe at 150 PA you can have 90% confidence in judgements based on those peripherals, but you can still have, say, 75% confidence in a judgement at Gordon's current level of 126 PA. And given Gordon's history and underwhelming peripherals across the board, maybe that could be even higher. And for that matter, we can be judging different levels of readiness too, each with its own confidence level -- readiness to perform (I think we can safely say Gordon is unlikely to fit that right now), readiness to be challenged, readiness just to get more experience. Gordon is close enough on that latter point that we should see him in September, or perhaps earlier if an opportunity arises sometime after Polanco's return.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Niko Goodrum chose to leave. We could have kept him with a 40-man roster spot, but it's worth noting that no one else guaranteed him a 40-man roster spot either, even Detroit. We brought in Petit because he was willing to come here without a 40-man spot. Then, once we needed him, we added Motter when he was available on waivers because he gave us a potential infield replacement for Petit if we needed to cut him (I believe Petit is out of options, contrary to Roster Resource), and also Motter has outfield experience too -- less need for Grossman/LaMarre? And while Motter has options, I have to imagine we will likely cut him once Polanco is back, assuming Buxton is back too. And while it's true that Gordon could have taken one of their roster spots, the way he's hitting at AAA (81 wRC+) suggests you'd need to burn an option on him as soon as Polanco comes back. I'd rather not burn an option on him at age 22 chasing a very unlikely performance, and instead keep his potential options available age 23-25. If Polanco and/or Dozier fail to perform in July, Gordon can still be called up for experience around the trade deadline with no need to burn an option this season. The only move in this sequence that doesn't make sense is the guy we added when we cut Petit (Belisle), but for reasons that have nothing to do with Petit.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I think you burst his bubble.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    They may not announce until Tuesday, or at least after the Rochester game today. I suspect Buxton, but it could be Cave if they don't think Buxton is ready to go yet.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, I disagree with this analysis for 2 reasons. 1. Unwritten rules are pretty much subjective by definition. Why would we be surprised if they were noticed/enforced subjectively too? 2. Even granting it more objectivity than it deserves, in 3.5 years of data, ~560 games, you found zero previous instances of a runner stealing with a 7 run lead. In fact, you found zero instances of a runner stealing with a 6 run lead too. Why did this not make it into your conclusion? Only when you defined a "big lead" as 5 runs or more did you find your other 3 data points. Even if we assume some objectivity, what if Molitor thinks 5 runs is okay, but 6 or 7 runs is too much? Subjectively, I'd take it a step further -- the 7 runs plus the fact that we had already removed our SP very early, plus that we were basically stuck riding mopup Magill as long as possible (albeit because of our own poor pen construction for this game), plus that Profar already got a "free" base due to the HBP(s) (was he leaning over the plate? are we combining multiple transgressions?) -- plus maybe that he is a relatively unfamiliar opponent who is not known for stealing... well, I don't know if Molitor ordered the hit, but I see no reason to distrust the quotes where he effectively condoned the third HBP.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    They are not that hard to find. Here's the further quotes from Molitor (and from Bannister first, for context): http://m.startribune.com/index.php/busenitz-up-romero-down-and-take-out-your-unwritten-rule-books-and-turn-to-page-1-379/486368501/
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Gordon has a 81 wRC+ at AAA so far. That's the same as Grossman's mark in MLB so far this season, and right around the nexus of other disappointing 2018 bats (Sano, Morrison, Garver). Maybe you reserve "horrible" for something like Castro/Wilson/Buxton level (39 wRC+ or lower), but Gordon's performance is still bad/poor.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    League average IP per start is 5.5. Romero averaged 5.1 in his first 10 starts.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Magill would have to clear waivers to be sent to AAA (no options remaining). I believe he could elect free agency as well (outrighted previously in his career).
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Didn't we have a similar need for a bullpen arm after Friday? Why play the Saturday game shorthanded for no apparent gain?
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    So they're letting Odorizzi's short start dictate Romero's development?
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think it is that noteworthy. In addition to the exceptions of NYY and SEA, we also lost 2 of 3 to MIL. And as far as bad teams, we are 6-3 vs CHW and 2-1 vs BAL. Our records vs DET and LAA reflect their (and our) overall season records. Seems like a pretty normal distribution for a team with our overall record. Yeah, we are 6-3 vs CLE, but 3-1 vs STL and 2-1 vs BOS and HOU is not unusual for the tiny sample sizes and normal variation.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    The Indians "threw" $1.5 mil away after a month or so. Actually, if Belisle really voided his contract asking for his release from Cleveland, did he throw away $700k? Or was the $800k basically what was left of the $1.5 mil, prorated to the remaining games? The fact that we are even having this discussion would seem to be a black mark on this front office.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    So, many of us thought it was borderline criminal not to cut Belisle after the Friday night game, given the general pen situation. But if they were going to demote Romero, and waited until after the Saturday game to do so, is that even worse? That sounds like a pretty obvious roster bungling. I can't even think of a flimsy, phony rationale for it. What, they would have kept Romero if not for Odorizzi's short start? Or it took them a full 24 hours to process their thoughts on Romero?
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I believe you are correct. Wow, that move was even worse than I thought...
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