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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks, forgot about 2011. In any case, Cuddy's post-game presser magic that year did not make it any more bearable. (What made it bearable, at least more than 2012-2014, was the recency of our 2010 success, and the fact that we climbed to only 5 games back of the division lead in late July.)
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    No doubt that Rasmus's career started promisingly. But achieving an .800 OPS once or even twice doesn't mean you have the talent to be a perenniel .800 OPS hitter. Both came with extreme career high BABIPs, and the latter of which came with an almost 30% K rate. And his history doesn't suggest this is a recent trend. He wasn't all that great in AAA at age 21 or MLB at age 22, and his K rate explosion at age 23 arguably helped him finally achieve the ISO and BABIP spikes that have kept him in the majors this long. Some guys are just boom and bust. And some guys just bust. And Torii Hunter providing a welcoming clubhouse presence isn't going to change that much. I just fear the spate of articles blaming Hicks even more for not listening to Hunter if his performance doesn't turn around this year.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    I am guessing you never had to listen to an interview of Cuddy or Hunter during a last-place season. Nor did they ever have to give one. (Well, maybe Hunter as a rookie, or Cuddyer in Colorado -- do you think Rockies fans were placated by Cuddy's post-game musings the past 3 years?) Just like how Souhan said the Twins missed Hunter's presence the past 4 years... conveniently ignoring the previous 3 years when Hunter was gone but we still won and nobody complained much about clubhouse culture and team attitude.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    I think the Rasmus stuff might be convenient narrative -- do we really know he has "all the talent in the world"? I think for a lot of guys, failure or even streaks of success and failure are pretty much their full potential. Not everyone can succeed or sustain success, that's just not the way MLB or life works. I certainly wouldn't dedicate a lineup spot and $10 mil to enlist an attitude adjuster to try to achieve that ideal. And the examples often cited around Hunter -- Puckett to Hunter, Hunter to Span, Hunter to Trout -- seem pretty mild in this regard. I am sure the mentored player appreciated it, but none of those guys experienced the wild on-field performance trough/swings of a Hicks or a Rasmus. In this field, and at this level, that's not something a friendly mentor is really going to make a dent in. On the field, the overwhelming factors are your own talent and skill, with the possible wildcard of expert level coaching which I wouldn't expect from anyone let alone a fellow active player.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    The salary was probably close to "market rate." MLBTR estimated 2/22 for him. Alex Rios got 1/11 from KC. I think we would have waited to sign him, though, if on-field production was really the chief concern. You may not have gotten a better/cheaper player, but I think it was important to at least try to find a more complimentary skill set for our current roster. Our first priority this offseason definitely should not have been another corner-only, bat-first player. Someone who could realistically slide over to center if needed, someone who won't need to take DH at-bats (we have perhaps 4 of those guys on the roster already).
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Baseball might be the most individual "team" sport there is. Garnett can actually play against his teammates in practice, feed them opportunities during games, contribute to the playbook on their behalf, etc. Hunter is basically just another coach who can observe and comment, which can be helpful but is also incredibly difficult once you start talking about individualized hitting/pitching mechanics that have taken years to develop. (I think that's why hitting/pitching coach positions are often so tenuous too.) I think the most tangible effects such a player can achieve in baseball are defensive advisor and clubhouse greeter.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Rosario had a .407 BABIP and only .080 ISO in the AFL (not to mention roughly a 5% BB rate and 20% K rate). It was encouraging after his rough season, but that is not "elite" or "breakout" in any sustainable way, certainly not worthy of skipping him to MLB right away.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Triples are definitely more fun, but they are also more fickle. Less sustainable, faster to fade, etc. I would take the HR for his long-term value.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Not sure if the Dodgers offered him anything, though.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Mack was hurt to begin 1994, not at the end. Although he did seem to break down within a few years anyway.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Milone's road ERAs look like Correia's Twins ERAs. They aren't that great in the current run environment (although if he was 5th by performance, meaning 4 guys were better, that would be nice but wouldn't have much to do with Milone).
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I would agree that power should not be a positional requirement. However, I would also say that improving his power might be the "easiest" way for Rosario to be an acceptable MLB contributor soon. He can't expect to hit .320 in MLB like Santana, nor can he expect his walk rate to reach heights it has never seen before, nor can he expect to be a defensive wizard right away either. His power, on the other hand, was decent at AA last year, was a plus for him at A ball, and a big plus for him in rookie league ball.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Rosario can also post the highest MLB BABIP (min 400 AB) in almost 40 years? Almost no one can be what Danny Santana was last year. Also, Santana had a .153 ISO last year, basically equal to Rosario's AA ISO, better than his 2013 AA ISO, and almost double his 2014 AFL ISO. Rosario is capable of hitting a few more HR but his overall "power" in MLB is unlikely to be better than Santana's 2014 mark.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    His OPS dipped by 70 points, not his SLG. And that dip was basically entirely AVG/OBP -- his isolated power at AA actually increased from 2013 to 2014.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    We had one above-average starter last season, and more or less one each season since 2011. If we suddenly have 3 of them in 2015 before even considering Nolasco (or the hyper-competitive 5th spot), we will be all right. Maybe not leading the division, but probably .500.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    An Anthony Swarzak type won't lead the league in appearances -- that's going to be a higher leverage reliever. Relief innings, perhaps, but they will mostly be low leverage, so an "upgrade" in performance during them isn't very exciting, particularly with big performance questions remaining in our rotation and top of the bullpen.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    This is what bugs me about the Stauffer signing. We didn't have that great of a bullpen last year, and our biggest offseason bullpen upgrade is already projecting as a Swarzak replacement.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, a torn meniscus is much less severe than an ACL tear. The latter sidelined Martinez for a full season a couple years ago (and prompted the Prince Fielder mega-contract). Recovery time for a torn meniscus could be as little as 4-6 weeks. He might miss opening day, but they don't necessarily need to acquire a season-long replacement this time.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I wouldn't read too much into "#3 starter" type projections. Obviously the quality of a #3 starter varies by the quality of the staff/team. And nobody agrees much on "ace" criteria (are aces the top 30 starters in MLB? 15? 45?) so I wouldn't expect much agreement on other rotation spots either. Meyer could achieve this hypothetical "#3 starter" level and still be an acceptable #1-2 on many clubs, easily on this Twins club, and especially if he can reliably repeat that performance.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss 2011. His poor 2009 season was virtually identical to his 2011 one. And even his two good years share many common peripherals with his bad ones -- basically those two years he shaved off about 1 H/9 and 0.5 HR/9, which is obviously good but doesn't strike me as a skill given the rest of his record. By xFIP (which normalizes HR/FB rate), he's basically been the same pitcher his entire career.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Maybe Pelfrey can throw naked batting practice?
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Last spring the competition was much less. Actually a few of the chief competitors (Worley & Diamond) had already been demoted to AAA the previous summer, and none of the options were guaranteed as much as Milone's $2.8 mil, much less Pelfrey's $5.5 mil. I think many of us under-rated Gibson's chances of making the team last spring. Doesn't mean this spring's prospects don't have a much harder hill to climb.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    His career wRC+ was 134 entering the 2014 season. His best ~2 months of 2014 was 125. And even that small sample is worse than every full season of his since his first few years in the league, save for the 2011 lost season. 135 for 2015 is definitely on a limb, but I hope he does it too. In fairness to Mauer, he has scuffled with injury before and rebounded, but the last time was 3 years ago when he had a much lower K rate. (Maybe part of his comeback approach in 2012-2013 forced his K rate higher, which is fine, but that would cast doubt on whether he could successfully double down on that approach in 2015.)
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    That second half 125 wRC+ is still notably worse than his career mark before the season (134), despite being aided by a walk rate and BABIP both higher than his career marks. And his second half .118 ISO compared to his 2013 mark of 153 would still represent his biggest single season drop outside of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011. Mauer's 2012-2013 seasons, while overall results were excellent, were also aided by above career average BABIP and BB% and in spite of skyrocketing K%. Remember, a big question a year ago was whether Mauer could sustain a .320 AVG and 140 wRC+ with a K% almost twice as high as his pre-2012 career mark. At this point, 2014 -- even just the second half -- is almost certainly a data point in favor of "no".
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I think you can pencil it in -- that's why pencils have erasers, my friend. Seriously, we're talking about single season projections. There are so many qualifiers to all of them that a generic "+5% TJ risk" or whatever in any random season due to pitching mechanics is pretty trivial when you are talking about a guy who is presently in good health and made his last 22 starts last year (and was superb in them). Now, if you want to say the White Sox can't count on an annual 5 WAR from Sale over the next 5+ years, I agree. But I would agree to almost the same degree for any pitcher of that level.
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