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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, but you can't use their 2019 options until you commit to keeping them on the 40-man all winter.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    How many lottery tickets get moved in August trades anymore? It's pretty much just salary relief, org filler, and/or Alex Presley fringe 40 man types these days, no?
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    The flip side of that is, this is the last chance they get to use Austin at AAA. If they are confident they will keep him on the roster over the winter anyway, there is not necessarily any rush to get him to MLB this season.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    25-27% K rate isn't bad for a power hitter in MLB. But if it's below league average at AA, that suggests there could be further trouble up the line. He's not Adam Brett Walker but it's a concern, especially for a guy whose only value is going to have to come through his bat. (And Rooker's jump in walk rate since June 1st suggests he could be getting pitched around as his bat has warmed up, which might be contributing to his lower K rate in that time?) In any case, I don't see him as a good Plan A for MLB opening day 2019, and he's not Rule 5 eligible, so it seems like bad roster management to add him to the 40-man right now. If you want to challenge him a little yet this season, move him to Rochester just to see how he adapts to a different league again -- that's been a bit of an issue for him too.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    The front office must simply be planning to remove Busenitz, Duffey, and Curtiss from the 40-man roster following the season. They're probably just being kept on the roster for now to improve their chances of clearing waivers. (Although Duffey would be eligible for minor league free agency too.) Similarly, Nick Anderson and Kohl Stewart can be controlled beyond this season even without a 40-man roster spot, as long as no one selects them in Rule 5. Bard, like Duffey, will be eligible for minor league free agency if he's not on the 40-man this offseason, but Bard is having a garbage season at AAA anyway. So I guess Duffey could be the priority? But they've had plenty of looks at him over the years, so I don't know...
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I like seeing new players, and lord knows the Twins could use a phenom rocketing to MLB, but I think I'd be pretty upset rather than excited if Rooker debuted in MLB yet this season, given everything we know. He still has some contact issues, so I wouldn't want to trust him to skip AAA and be ready to contribute for opening day 2019, and it would be very poor 40-man roster management to add him this early.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Keep in mind Field is 26 years old, it is his 3rd year in AAA, and that's a very small sample. (And it's mostly BABIP -- his isolated power is actually just under the International League average.) And the Twins passed on claiming him on July 24 before claiming him a few days ago. He's also been eligible for selection for the last two Rule 5 drafts and has gone unclaimed. Before he debuted in MLB this season, Field was projected for a 77 wRC+ by ZiPS. I guess this season has meant progress, because he now has a 80 wRC+ rest-of-season projection. Extremely small sample, but defensive metrics liked his work in Tampa's outfield this season. Maybe he's like Grossman but with defense instead of walks? Still around replacement level.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    This is Austin's last option year, so he'll be out of options next spring.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. WPA is a story stat. Not unlike pitcher wins/losses, RBIs, etc. A player's WPA is highly context dependent -- as Fangraphs says, "A player with a high leverage index may have a higher WPA simply because they happened to come up more often when the game was on the line." (Same applies to pitchers who happened to pitch more often when the game was on the line.) If you want to use WPA beyond telling the story of a game, to compare two players by WPA, you would want to divide by Leverage Index. See here: https://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/wpa-li/
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    The new front office's record on relievers is really, really weird. Yeah, they've only been on the job for 2 seasons, but modern bullpen pieces can be made (and lost) pretty rapidly. After 2 years, you should have something to show for your work in that department. Here are the current relievers that the new front office has added to the 40-man roster: Belisle (twice) Busenitz Curtiss Drake Hildenberger Magill Moya Reed Rodney And departed ones they had added to the 40-man roster: Breslow Duke Gee Haley Kinley Rucinski Turley They also re-added Wimmers in 2017, after dropping him following the 2016 season.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Performance-wise, keep in mind Detroit has had Hicks for almost 3 full seasons now, and he has only 32 starts at catcher. He has 84 starts at 1B/DH in that time. So it's not clear how viable he is, behind the plate. Which is an important distinction, because his 97 OPS+ with Detroit does not make him an asset at 1B/DH. (Even if it is marginally better than Morrison so far in 2018 -- entering 2018 with Hicks as first or second string 1B/DH would have been universally considered a terrible plan.) Likewise, as mentioned upthread, Goodrum has been playing all over for Detroit, but poorly by the metrics. Maybe he's marginally better (offense + defense) than Forsythe's 2018 season right now, but only because Forsythe's 2018 season has been really, really bad at the plate. That alone doesn't make Goodrum an asset. He's worse than Adrianza, Polanco, Sano, and the recently traded Escobar and Dozier in our infield, Mauer at 1B/DH, Rosario, Kepler, and Cave in our OF, etc.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    It's not quite apples to apples. To keep Goodrum or Hicks would have required giving them a 40-man roster spot, a long time before we had to roster Wilson or Forsythe. Detroit claimed Hicks on waivers in April 2016. For the Twins to use Hicks to replace Wilson in May 2018, we would have had to keep Hicks on the 40-man for over 2 years, including 2 offseasons where the roster can be a bit tighter (no 60-day DL in the offseason). Goodrum would have been a bit easier to keep, with a 40-man roster spot last offseason. But it still would have been a waste -- where would Goodrum have played in Minnesota? We had a much better infield and lineup than Detroit. (Worth noting Detroit didn't even guarantee him a roster spot -- they signed him to a minor league deal and promoted him just before opening day. It's quite possible Minnesota offered him the same minor league deal and he chose Detroit for the better opportunity.)
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I think Roster Resource has Alcala's 2018 Rule 5 status wrong. He signed at 19, but he was 18 on the preceding June 5, so he's not eligible until his 5th Rule 5 draft. And because he signed after the 2014 season, his 5th Rule 5 draft will be 2019. Berardino seems to confirm this here: https://mobile.twitter.com/mikeberardino/status/1023235490491891714
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    If someone wants to make a list of potential Rule 5 protections, this is a good resource: https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-minnesota-twins/ Just look for everybody with "Dec. 18" in the Options or Rule 5 status column. With the aforementioned exception of Alcala, who seems to be mislabeled. Also consider "R5" for repeat eligibles (like Kohl Stewart).
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    As long as it's only a metaphorical wall, he should be all right: "Kevin Brown injured punching clubhouse wall" http://www.espn.com/mlb/news/story?id=1874557
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, the Twins have previously passed on claiming both Drake and Field this season -- Field was awarded via waiver claim to a team with a better record than us as recently as July 24; Drake, on May 31.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    League priority is generally only part of trade waivers. For outright assignment waivers, priority is record regardless of league (although league is a potential tiebreaker). Drake and Field were on outright assignment waivers, as their clubs were trying to get them off their 40-man rosters (and in Drake's case, to AAA because he is out of options).
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    As I posted above, even if Drake clears waivers, he can reject an outright assignment and elect free agency. And even if he doesn't reject it now, if he is off the 40-man roster, he can elect to become a free agent at the end of the season. This move only really makes sense if you think we want to give Drake a shot right now with an eye toward keeping him on the roster if he performs, perhaps in place of one of our current AAA relievers.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    White was maybe close. The year before we signed him, 14 Rbat in 400 PA, compared to Morrison's 22 in 601. For projected DHs, they are about the same. Morrison had more health and was a few years younger, but White had much more of a track record. The other names I won't dispute. You could add the holy trinity of Ramon Ortiz, Livan Hernandez, and Sidney Ponson on the pitching side of the ledger. (Although the old Twins did also acquire/re-sign Pavano, who was probably a fair comp for Lynn.)
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Aaron's leadership toward achieving his team's goal has certainly been more successful than Matty B's so far this year.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Matt Magill is going to the paternity list, to make room for "The Drake."
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    If you are referring to Johnny Field, he has zero professional games in the infield. He is an outfielder, contrary to the Twins press release.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    If we don't keep him on the roster, Drake would be eligible to be a minor league free agent. (He's been outrighted before, and his pro contract has been renewed way more than 6 times.) Field would be controllable for one more year (2019), if we are able to outright him.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    FYI, Romero is already past any estimated Super 2 threshold. Even if they called him back up today for the rest of the season, he would only finish the year with ~113 service time days. Last year the cutoff was 123 days, and per MLBTR, it has never been below 122: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/10/projected-super-two-cutoff-6.html
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. Palka has a 112 wRC+ to Morrison's 80. Assuming we didn't play him in the outfield like the White Sox have done (where he has negated much of his batting performance), Palka would be 1 WAR or so ahead of Morrison so far this year.
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