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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    It doesn't matter if they avoid arbitration or not -- I think all one-year contracts for arbitration-eligible players have the same provisions for termination pay. One of the more notable recent cases of a player being cut with termination pay was Emilio Bonifacio, and that was after he and the Royals agreed to a deal to avoid arbitration: https://kingsofkauffman.com/2014/01/17/royals-avoid-arbitration-eric-hosmer-luke-hochevar-emilio-bonifacio/ https://kingsofkauffman.com/2014/02/10/royals-request-release-waivers-emilio-bonifacio/ Not that I expect the Twins to cut Cron. In fact, it is probably safe to assume that any arb deal for that much money is effectively guaranteed, because cuts with termination pay are so rare at that level.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    As a baseball nerd, I love Rule 5, and I love rooting for underdogs like Rule 5 picks, but honestly, I think I'd rather see my favorite team have a better plan for talent acquisition and roster construction these days.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    $100k seems cheap, but in modern Rule 5, you're not buying much. Take a look at the recent results: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_5_draft_results The last couple years, it's like maybe 1 useful guy out of 18 picks. By comparison, there are quite a few far more successful/valuable guys signed on minor league deals every year -- like Brandon Morrow for the Dodgers a couple years ago, Kintzler for the Twins, etc. Dereck Rodriguez, even. And those guys actually cost LESS than $100k (not to mention not requiring a 25 man roster spot). You'd probably be better off trying to identify those guys and enticing them to sign with the roster spot you would have used on a Rule 5 pick instead. It comes down to, what's the best 40-man I can assemble in the offseason? And what's the best 25-man I can field to start the season? Talent can be scarce, but not so scarce that Rule 5 picks need to be part of those roster equations, at the low odds of recent Rule 5 results. There's enough potential/talent available, in free agency, trades, etc., that it's easy to see why it's preferable for most teams to opt against drafting/rostering Rule 5 guys.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Justin Haley threw 7.2 innings of mop-up duty for the Red Sox in June, was nowhere near their MLB roster in the second half of the season much less the postseason, and cleared waivers and was outrighted off the 40-man by Boston on Nov. 1st, before he elected minor league free agency on Nov. 2. So if you want him back, here's your chance! You can give him a spot instead of another Rule 5 guy.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    "MLB, Fox Sports Reach Reported $5.1 Billion Rights Agreement" https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/mlb-fox-sports-reach-reported-5-1-billion-rights-agreement.html Apparently a 36% annual increase over the previous deal.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    "will listen to trade offers" https://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/status/1058421239704887299 I imagine they would be looking for quite a haul on Kluber and Carrasco -- new cheaper talent to quickly complement Lindor and Ramirez.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, per Wikipedia, White Sox catcher Omar Narvaez and Marlins/Phillies 1B Justin Bour were selected in the minor league phase of the 2013 Rule 5 draft. Alexi Ogando and Aejandro De Aza are two more names I recognized when scanning the list. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_5_draft_results Still, the odds are quite low.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Former Twins 3B Brian Buscher:
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Cano, and Pujols before him. Stanton signed a 13 year extension since then.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    How about neither hand?
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    It seems to be a part of most major packages. Here are some estimates from 2015: https://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/reference/list-of-how-many-homes-each-cable-network-is-in-as-of-february-2015/ TBS was at 82.9% of households with a television. Basically the same as CNN, Weather Channel, etc. -- so virtually every cable/satellite/streaming subscriber has TBS. FS1 was at 72.9% overall, similar to Fox News, Hallmark, NatGeo -- those aren't quite universal but still pretty common. That's 88% of the TBS figure.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, here are Heyman's predicted contracts from last offseason: https://web.archive.org/web/20171110221324/https://www.fanragsports.com/inside-baseball-how-much-will-the-top-80-free-agents-get/
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Seems doubtful. TBS is part of virtually every cable/satellite/streaming package, and FS1 is pretty darn close too. MLB Network is a little harder to find -- but they only carried 2 games, all the way back in the division series. Virtually every regular season game is already on pay TV too. I am an antenna guy, and personally I would love if more games were on free TV. But I am under no illusion that it is all that important in terms of visibility/interest/revenue in 2018.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Reed might be better than Granite, but Granite has options. We won't be able to shuttle Reed back and forth from AAA. (So he pretty much has to be back end of the 25 man rather than 40 man)
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Reed was also repeating both AA and AAA last year. Not that he's super old or anything, but prior to his breakout last year, he already had 590 career PA at AA, and 640 more at AAA. Reed is also 16 days older than Jake Cave. He turns 26 on Nov. 18, while Cave do so on Dec. 4.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Also worth noting Reed has been optioned each of the last 3 years (2016, 2017, 2018). So he will be out of options next spring -- which is probably why the Braves were waiving him. A team has to ask itself: worth rostering the guy all winter, if there is a reasonable chance he doesn't make your club and you lose him on waivers next spring? Of course, some teams have more roster room than others... Edit to add: Cave just used his first option year in 2018, so he still has 2 more.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah. Reed's BABIP in the minors this year looked to be about .460. Which is impressive, but also nowhere near sustainable.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know. Manfred also says he is confused about why the games take so long (or why the no-pitch intentional walk and mound visit limits didn't help). I think "confused"/concerned is his default public position about any topic. Seriously, I think MLB will always give lip service to shortening games, improving TV ratings, making the ballpark experience more affordable and family-friendly -- but they know they don't really need to pursue any of those goals as much as our segment of fans would like to believe. (And given their position as a monopoly in the sport, with taxpayer-funded stadiums all over, they are probably right, unfortunately.)
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    This year's postseason was pretty dismal all around, from an excitement/interest standpoint, compared to last year. Not just WS, but CS rounds too. I don't expect that was the primary factor, but it probably didn't help. Maybe there is some BoSox burnout too? I was surprised their 2013 series ratings weren't all that great either. And they were in control of each series this postseason, and clearly no one thinks they are cursed anymore. I suspect we'll get more of the same low ratings next year too, barring NYY/Cubs and some extra postseason excitement.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I totally agree on an aesthetics level. But on a practical level, I just can't believe our personal aesthetics are really any kind of notable ratings/moneymaking difference.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Once you are a billion dollar industry, stagnant TV ratings probably don't hurt that much. Especially since there are ratings challenges all across the spectrum of TV programming, and the sport's strength appears to be local anyway. And I don't think it's all that likely that MLB can exert a whole lot of control over modern national TV ratings trends either. Sure, I'd personally love faster paced, shorter games, but to the extent they could improve ratings, I'm not sure if you could differentiate the effect from countless other small factors. MLB can sell ad time between pitches now, sadly.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Is it actually in that group, or close to being in it? Or is it closer to the NBA and NCAA, and staying around there for the foreseeable future? Genuinely curious, if you have any references. I see a lot of ratings for individual years and series, but not a whole lot about long-term trends (and how meaningful they are, compared to overall TV viewership decline). I don't have an angle, it's just that this "spin" seems rather incorrect/misleading -- it's not "another ratings dip", it's back to the 2008-2015 status quo. All this particular news item confirms is that the 2016 ratings jump wasn't permanent, particularly for a less-competitive series, which shouldn't be surprising or all that troubling to anyone on its own. I don't think that's splitting hairs at all, but obviously we disagree so I'll drop that particular line of discussion.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Do you know of any good resources for that comparison? Particularly historical trends (over a number of years), not smaller sample year-to-year shifts that are prone to stuff like the 2015-2018 MLB numbers. I'd be curious to see it. I don't think it's particularly a problem for MLB to be 3rd in that race anyway. Just due to the nature of the sport (longer season/series, local focus), I'd only expect it to be #2 at best (behind the NFL). And the NBA is no slouch either, plus pro basketball and football both have pretty compelling feeder leagues (colleges). I don't imagine the data is anywhere near severe or conclusive enough to suggest MLB will soon be trailing the NHL or MLS or whatever in US national TV ratings.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    First of all, comparing a 5 game series to the first 5 games of last year's series is hardly "rosy spin" -- it's actually a more proper comparison than comparing a straight average from a 5 gamer and a 7 gamer. And of course, more proper would be to use more than a couple years of data, if you have it. And looking at the data beyond the last 2 years, yes, it could be correct to say that 2018 just lost Joe Schmo who turned off his TV from baseball way back in 2008 and later turned it back on for 2016-2017. Could still be disappointing in some contexts, but particularly bad/unexpected news.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks. Note this passage from Fangraphs, which is pretty much exactly what I've been saying here:
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