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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Fien has trade value, just like Burton had trade value, and Duensing, and Cotts, and Swarzak... If Fien had any meaningful trade value, he would be a better pitcher on the level of Jepsen and we wouldn't even be having this debate.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    That is a little harsh. Park didn't get to negotiate the system that gave a single MLB team so much leverage in these negotiations. I don't care about his Korean team getting a cut, etc., but this old style posting system is definitely not fair to the players.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Given the difference in defensive position and age with Jung Ho Kang, and Kang's limited MLB resume thus far, it's hardly clear yet if teams were scared off by Park's potentially high price tag, or if that was more of a media mismeasurement.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Could be. It does seem like we were more aggressive than other teams with our posting fee bid on Park, which is smart IF you actually want the player under this posting system. Of course, it the player ultimately isn't worth wanting, it's not really an inefficiency that other teams bid less...
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not quite sure if that is true. Ryan Doumit averaged .261 and 16 HR in his two seasons here and wasn't particularly worth the $3.5 mil a year we guaranteed him. The only real value to this deal will be if he notably exceeds those numbers, and he obviously has a shot right now. Will be interesting to watch.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    "Far less accomplished"? These things from Nishioka's Wikipedia page sound like accomplishments (although I am admittedly unsure of "2010 NPB 27 Slug prize record"): 2× Japan Series champion (2005, 2010)5× NPB All-Star (2005–2008, 2010)3× NPB Best Nine Award (2005, 2007, 2010)3× NPB Golden Glove Award (2005, 2007, 2010)2× NPB stolen base leader (2005–2006)2010 NPB batting champion2010 NPB safe hit champion2010 NPB 27 Slug prize recordHe was also a 26 year old shortstop at the time. Compared to 29 year old 1B Park's Wikipedia accomplishments: 2× KBO MVP (2012–2013)3× KBO Golden Glove Award (2012–2014)4× KBO Home Run title (2012–2015)4× KBO RBI title (2012–2015)2× KBO Slugging Percentage title (2012–2013)2014 KBO All-Star Game MVP They are very different accomplishments, for sure, but they don't seem that different in quantity or quality (especially if you grade NBP as a better league).
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Remember, he was locked into negotiating with only the Twins. Very hard to get a player-friendly deal under those circumstances. I expect if Korean players will be coming over here regularly, we will soon see reforms of their posting system, much like we have seen with Japan.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Seth, you qualify May with "probably", Perkins deserves a qualifier too with the way he's finished the past two seasons, and Jepsen himself is only controlled one more year. Yet you want to gamble on all 3 of those guys being in the pen and healthy and effective, AND Fien being healthy and effective in front of them? How does spending ~$15 mil in the FA market on another Jepsen type reliever "not make any sense" for a team in this situation? I know this has come up on other threads, but I still don't get it at all. It seems like Twins fans have become a little too conditioned to seek a bargain if we're not willing to commit ~$5 mil annually for 3 years to help upgrade a dangerously weak bullpen.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, Fien locked into a roster spot makes it very difficult to add another "7th or 8th inning guy" this winter, so you'd almost certainly see him in those situations again, potentially quite early in 2016, just as he has been used in the past. If you really think he should be exclusively a low-leverage, "6th inning" guy, there's really no sense locking him into a roster spot. We've seen in the past few years how locking those guys in takes away a lot of flexibility. I'd rather pay more to sign someone with the potential to be better (another Jepsen type), and if they are all healthy and performing well, not having enough high-leverage innings for them all is a good problem to have. And/or use the low-leverage spots to audition higher upside call-ups or waiver claims for potentially higher upside duty later -- we now have ~10 guys who are on the 40-man roster but potentially ticketed for AAA and need evaluation opportunities.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Exactly. If he gets $2.2 mil, he's pretty much locked into a roster spot as long as he doesn't implode like Stauffer. If we're going to lock veterans into bullpen spots, let's at least have them be Jepsen-level pitchers from now on, okay? If Plans A, B, and C don't work out for some reason and you are really desperate by August, you can almost certainly get another Fien (or another Cotts, or another Duensing) for nothing.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    In what world is Fien a trade candidate? Certainly not this offseason, probably not even in 2016 barring an unexpected level of performance. Relievers of his quality occasionally get moved, but for little or no return; they are not trade assets. Also, the Twins minor leaguers (the ones who did not already appear in the 2015 pen) won't be ready to start the 2016 season -- none even appeared in AAA in 2015, much less dominated AA. The goal shouldn't be temporary "protection" against that likelihood, the goal should be fielding an improved bullpen from day 1 so we're not desperately relying on those minor leaguers figuring it all out by mid-summer, or on the whims of the deadline trade market. Then, if one or more of those minor league arms really does figure it out, they could patch unexpected holes, or elevate our pen from good to great, or free up resources to trade. But you have to aim high now to achieve those goals, you can't go into 2016 with the same failed bullpen approach of the last few seasons.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, not offering Fien would signal a change. No more tolerating Duensing etc. every year because they happen to be under team control. Also, while a 1 year, $2.2 mil contract is less risky than a 3 year deal for a FA, I don't know if Fien offers the upside at this point to really make it a "better investment" from a performance/potential standpoint, which should be the goal of these contending Twins rather than simple risk avoidance.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    What would make more sense for Detroit? They've got commitments, some to still very good players (Cabrera, JD Martinez, plus Kinsler and Verlander finished up pretty well last year). They're not doomed to last place or anything. Doesn't really make sense to blow it all up (if that's even possible, given their commitments) or do little or nothing, that's a recipe for stagnation. Given their question marks, a $200 mil blockbuster contract might not make sense for these Tigers, but that's not what they signed here. They signed a very good pitcher to what looks like a perfectly reasonable deal. It may not be enough to put them back on top by itself, but without a doubt it improves the team, nothing wrong with that.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Clones, delivered by drones?
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    You have very little evidence to support this statement thus far. Two of those 16 starts, May was removed after 3 innings for reasons outside his control -- hit by a comebacker in April, and then on a pitch count in his August spot start. He also got a late start on the season (recall he missed much of spring training to illness, and was optioned out for more work only to be recalled shortly thereafter to replace Nolasco). And he was a still a rookie who was on a protectively short leash -- a few times he was pulled when a veteran almost certainly would not have been (April 19, May 23 & 29, perhaps June 3, etc.) -- and he was moved to the bullpen before he could have reasonably earned a longer leash. May wasn't taking himself out of those games, he was being removed by a manager who routinely let Pelfrey and Santana exceed those pitch counts. (And I'm not saying the Twins were wrong to do that, May also only threw 143 innings overall in 2014, given his lack of MLB experience they were probably pacing him for the full 2015 season. I am just saying it greatly affected the small sample of data you are using to judge him.) You might be right that May is better as a pen weapon, but there just isn't enough good data to say he's not one of our 5 best starter right now.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for the recap Seth! I didn't realize Pinto had passed up minor league free agency before he was added in 2012. I wonder why we wouldn't have added him to the 40-man roster a month earlier? If we thought he was worth protecting from Rule 5 on Nov. 20, he was certainly worth adding to 40-man roster on Oct. 20. Probably a function of our suspect farm systems during that period, rather than astute 40-man moves...
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Further analysis: last year, BA published a similar list of 77 minor league guys, and still missed two picks (Odubel Herrera, arguably the best pick last year, and David Rollins). http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/notable-players-available-rule-5-draft/ They did feature 10 "most notable" guys at the top of the list, which included 4 eventual picks.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I can see that. On the other hand, the Twins seem to be taking the opposite approach with Taylor Rogers -- letting him continue to start in AAA, well down the SP depth chart, when it looked for all the world like he could help the bullpen last year...
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    He's still on track to attempt it, according to a MLBTR report 2 weeks ago: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/11/nobuhiro-matsuda-free-agent-kenta-maeda-timing.html The odds must be exceptionally low now, but I'd pretty much be willing to sign him to a non-guaranteed minor league deal every year for the rest of his life.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    If you think you might DFA them after a brief MLB audition, perhaps they're not worth protecting on the 40-man all winter without the audition anyway.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, agreed 100%. Guys at that age and level, with that track record, should absolutely be expected to have an MLB audition before they spend a whole winter on the 40-man roster. (Which Thompson himself did in 2014, as well as Oliveros, and Fryer in 2013, etc.) Likewise, a guy like Gilmartin should probably get that audition too before it is determined that we'd be OK losing him in Rule 5. Worst case, you see something in the audition that makes you not want to keep him on the roster all winter, and without Rule 5 restrictions you can probably flip him for another marginal player to fill a AAA depth role if that's all you wanted anyway.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks, that's a more exhaustive list than the MLB.com Top 10 I posted earlier. Same Twins name on both lists, though (Zach Jones). Note that Pat Dean is older than every pitcher on that list except Kyle Drabek (who just signed as a minor league free agent and has over 2.5 seasons MLB service time).
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    That might have been possible too, had we not extended him. I thought one of the real benefits of Hughes's original 3/24 deal was that it could have played well in pen too, if necessary. Although that deal was probably accompanied by the promise of a guaranteed starting opportunity for the length of the contract. Hopefully the extension at least bought us some more flexibility in that regard, and hopefully the other starter performances render Hughes unnecessary in the rotation too.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Doogie Wolfson tweets that the Twins don't have interest in Thornton: https://twitter.com/DWolfsonKSTP/status/668453949855285248
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Finally found the rule: http://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3517 See the section at the bottom on "Draft-Excluded Players." Emphasis mine. Basically, guys added to the 40-man after August 15th who would otherwise be Rule 5 eligible (including the guys added last week) can't be outrighted between Dec. 10 and roughly March 15 next spring. They can be traded or released at any time, but you can't pass them through waivers and outright them (removing them from the 40-man but keeping them in the organization) during that period. Which effectively means the player's 40-man spot is secured until March 15 -- if a team needs to free a spot in the interim, they will generally trade or try to waive/outright another player (i.e. what we just tried with Achter and Pinto).
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