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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Graterol is currently ranked outside the top 10-20 (and outside the top 50 except by Prospectus, same as Guerra was), yet you included him in your earlier post. Obviously someone might have a personal preference for Graterol over Gomez or Guerra (too many G's ), but it's pretty clear that all 3 could be considered in a similar generic prospect value class.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Keep in mind, Carlos Gomez was a top-50/60 prospect at the time, and considered MLB ready or close to it. He was definitely below Lewis and probably Kirilloff now too, but he was probably a decent value match for Graterol at the moment. Heck, Guerra might have been close to Graterol too --BA ranked him 35th, and Prospectus #79, at the time of the trade. (I still didn't like the trade, but that's because we were contenders, and we effectively swapped prime Johan for Livan Hernandez.)
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    MLB salaries/incentives cannot be performance-based. They can only be based on playing time (games / plate appearances, innings, etc. -- although relievers can also do "games finished" which is often a shorthand for closer performance).
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Maybe it should make you look closer at the data you just posted instead. You posted that Buxton's career OPS is .672 and said that was a black hole in the lineup. Well, MLB CF collectively posted only a .726 OPS in 2018. The league non-pitcher OPS was only .740. In that context, .672 isn't good, of course. But it's not a black hole either, and certainly not anything that good defense and baserunning can't vault to average or even above-average overall performance, which was the contention of the post to which your were originally responding. You don't even need to WAR to see that either -- Buxton's career OPS+ relative to the league is 80, and Greg Gagne's was 83 during his tenure with the Twins. Chuck Knoblauch posted a 90 and 91 in 2 of his first 3 seasons. Nobody really disputed that those guys were still valuable overall performers, with or without WAR (although I feel that WAR is a handy shorthand for illustrating the concept). Buxton is certainly capable of even worse, truly "black hole" type performances in smaller samples, and there are posters here who have argued those bad months have an outsized effect on his overall value. But his overall numbers which you presented, by themselves, don't suggest a black hole that can't be overcome by defense and baserunning.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    B-Ref has it as Feb. 2nd. Jan. 29 was the original date of the trade agreement, contingent on the Mets negotiating an extension within the 72 hour window they were given. So it became final on Feb. 2.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Looks like we're gonna need a bigger napkin (to calculate on the back of).
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Buxton's 162 game average is also 3.7 WAR. That seems like more good than harm.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    If one trusts the Castro projection, and assumes he's a similar framer to Realmuto, the projection difference is just 1.4-1.8 WAR (based on 416-512 PA). If one doesn't trust the Castro projection, you are right that the gap could widen with more playing time for Garver (based on framing). But the gap could also hold steady or even narrow with Astudillo -- Fangraphs said "BP’s framing metrics graded his minor-league receiving in a positive manner": https://blogs.fangraphs.com/another-fascinating-thing-about-willians-astudillo/
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Fangraphs is projecting almost 100 extra PA for Realmuto over Castro, and a 2.1 WAR advantage for Realmuto. Prorated, if Realmuto only played as much as Castro is projected, there would only be about 1.4 WAR between them. If you think Castro would play less, and Garver/Astudillo more, it could be an even smaller difference, because Garver and Astudillo both project better (on a WAR per PA rate basis) than Castro.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, while Fangraphs projects Realmuto at 3.6 WAR, they also project the Twins current catching group at 2.5 WAR. So adding Realmuto may only net us 1.1 WAR by those projections. Although there are certainly more factors that can be considered beyond just the projections. And indeed, the difference in actual catcher WAR between the Marlins and Twins was 2.9 for 2018.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I agree that is how the term should be used, but in practice it seems "extend" is simply any new multi-year deal for a player already under contract. For example, see MLBTR's post from 2015, "Twins Extend Brian Dozier": https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/03/twins-extend-brian-dozier.html
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    If those ace pitchers aren't available, then it's kind of beside the point, isn't it? The point of my response was, if you are really considering pulling the trigger on Realmuto (at whatever price), but you also think "man, I'd rather have an ace for the same price" -- you might still be better off trading for Realmuto, rather than waiting for an ace that may never come. Of course, it doesn't sound like you are really considering trading for Realmuto at this price. Which is defensible too, but it doesn't really have anything to do with aces.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Do you think Realmuto will fetch significantly more than Kirilloff? I've thought that in the past, but after Kirilloff's 2018, and the fact that they are the Marlins, I am not so sure. I think they could be a match.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    The Marlins have a long history of dealing players, often for less than inspiring returns. I think we can all agree that we'd like to see the Twins involved, regardless of what price we are comfortable with.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I know Kirilloff could be the next Yelich -- but it's worth noting that, until last season, Yelich never really achieved much more than what Realmuto is doing right now, and is projected to do this season. There's still value in that, of course, but it's not as lopsided as you might think. Also, Yelich didn't achieve that until year 5 of team control. It also took an extension to make Yelich really valuable. Can the current front office do that?
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know, we've been hearing about Mets pitchers coming available forever. But the Mets have the resources to consistently reload, I don't think you can really count on them to sell.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I disagree. I don't think a Kirilloff-led package would get you either Syndergaard or Kluber right now. Those teams are trying to win (and in Kluber's case, his team is in direct competition with the Twins). I think if you change this from an abstract thought to reality, you will find there are few if any pitchers on that level who would be available for a Kirilloff-led package. (Edit to add: I know Kirilloff raked in 2018 and is ranked well, but he is also a corner player who has yet to play in AA. I think he is a clear step below up-the-middle top prospects like Lewis, which is probably the minimum prospect quality that would be required to pry Syndergaard or Kluber right now.)
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Keep in mind, Lucroy wasn't traded until he was already 30 years old. Realmuto isn't quite yet 28. (It might be a data point against an extension, more than against a trade.)
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Cost certainty has some value, but I highly doubt that it is more important than extra years of control, at least in most cases. Merrifield gave up one FA season, via team option. And he's already 30, so the Royals now control him through age 34 -- quite a bit different than most of the Twins extension targets.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, I could see them going without a no-trade clause, or with a weaker one, especially in Minnesota -- as long as they have opt-out clauses. So then, in theory, you could trade them in a few years just before their opt out, effectively as a rental.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Did I miss a championship? Or did we get one for dollars per WAR along the way?
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    You think Machado didn't try in the World Series? He had a bad 5 games. He's a talented player, but he can't simply will himself to have a good performance any time he wants. I understand concerns about Machado's style of play, but this seems like quite a stretch.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I just saw the new rankings for Graterol, which look good. But, Sheffield is MLB ready to boot. There is value in that too. And the report said they wanted *more* than what Paxton fetched. Even if you led the deal with Graterol, you would probably need to add something else more interesting than Kepler.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    What is your basis for saying this? (FWIW, any long term deal he signs will include an opt out. He'll have plenty of incentive to keep performing even if he wants to leave.)
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