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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Projections already account for age and regression (and somewhat for injury, in terms of past playing time). Here's Fangraphs take on them right now: http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=6 That's a projected 82 win team, most of it on offense. That's with Miguel Cabrera having his worst WAR season since 2008. That's with Kinsler having the worst season of his career. That's JD Martinez's WAR dropping by half in his age 28 season. That's with a pitching staff projected to be 4th worst by WAR in all of MLB, including Jordan Zimmermann projected to have the worst season of his career, prospect Michael Fulmer contributing only 9 innings, and their 3 new bullpen acquisitions dropping from 3.7 WAR in 2015 to 1.6 for 2016. Sometimes, it feels like you are double-counting the regression here...
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Someone else noted this in another thread, but Detroit actually had strong offensive components last year. OPS+ of 106 (2nd in the AL), 1st in AVG, 2nd in OBP, 5th in SLG. But only 11th in runs per game. Not sure how or why it happened, but I suspect they could score more runs in 2016 even if they wind up with worse components. (So to Brock's point, Cabrera could regress and Victor Martinez fail to bounce back, and they could still score more runs.) Run prevention will be the bigger challenge, particularly in the back half of their rotation. Will they get "good Pelf"? Can Norris, Fulmer, etc. effectively fill it out?
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    See markos' post and my previous posts. They were basically .500 at the end of July, and had already suffered a lot of blows by that time (Victor Martinez, Simon, and Sanchez were all terrible, Cabrera had missed a month, Verlander was missing and/or bad up until that point, their bullpen was a mess, etc.). You want to pile more bad luck on top of that? It could happen, that can be your pessimistic projection, but it's nothing like a neutral luck projection right now, which has to be close to .500. At that point, getting a few games above .500 doesn't take much -- a dead cat bounce from V-Mart, or Cabrera staying a little ahead of his aging curve, etc. Not a return to 2011-2014 greatness, but definitely projects to be relevant in the division and/or wild card races.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Zimmermann and Upton have averaged almost exactly 7.5 WAR combined per season over the last 4 years.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Further expanding on my above post, the Tigers were 50-52, 3.5 games out of the second wild card, a 79.5 win full season pace when they traded Price, Cespedes, and Soria at the deadline. Given that they've replaced those 3 with Zimmermann, Upton, and K-Rod, not to mention a few other moves (Lowe, Wilson, Salty, Maybin), 79-80 wins is probably a better "baseline" to use for judging their 2015 performance going forward. Furthermore, they lost Cabrera for a month and a half on July 3, at which point they were 40-39, only 1.5 games out of the postseason. They didn't get much of anything from Verlander until August either. Obviously they could lose Cabrera again, etc., but the point is, they were fully in the mix in the middle of 2015 even with a lot of dreadful performances, injuries, etc. Given their present roster, I see no reason they shouldn't project to fully be in the mix again for 2016-2017, which seems a lot better plan for them than whatever alternatives have been suggested here (rebuilding? standing pat and saving cash?). They obviously don't project to be a 90+ win team, but few teams ever do, and I'm not sure that's the most meaningful goal or target.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Cespedes, career OPS+: 122 Upton, career OPS+: 121 If your point was that Upton merely offsets the loss of Cespedes, Upton doesn't offset Cespedes and leave them as a 74 win team. When they dealt Cespedes last year, they were still 50-52, about 5 full wins ahead of where they actually finished. David Price, career ERA+: 126 Jordan Zimmermann, career ERA+: 118 I'd say that's remotely close.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    In those two deals, the Brewers would be giving up 2 guys from their 40-man roster, and taking back 6. That's not happening, especially not for a rebuilding team like Milwaukee clearly would be.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Nitpicks aside, very fun article!
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    That seems light. Oswaldo Arcia is pretty worthless right now to the Brewers, who are set in the OF corners and can't use a DH, and he's out of options coming off a bad season at AAA so they can't exactly flip him, and Del Rosario is obviously a lottery ticket. Gonsalves is a nice prospect, but he's a B- by Sickels and is a long ways away yet, and if all it took was him and filler, I suspect Smith would have been dealt already. With Giles, Kimbel, Chapman, etc. already dealt, Smith would probably be the top reliever on the market if the Brewers made him available. And with 4 years of control left and just now becoming a closer, I don't think the Brewers are in a rush to move him either.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Mejia wouldn't count towards the 40-man roster right now while suspended, but this trade wouldn't open up a 40-man roster spot for the Twins. Duda would take Plouffe's place, and the team would still be at 40. You'd have to move someone to sign Venable.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    The Tigers had four straight first place finishes before last season. I'm not sure one season is enough to show that "the formula didn't work". What exactly would be the better approach? They've got too many good players to just blow it up or do nothing, so why not try to add a few more pieces? Especially in an offseason when your first round pick is protected. They have a very good chance to be in the mix for the division race, which is kinda the whole point, isn't it? Blowing it up or doing nothing hurt those chances, and doesn't exactly offer a clear path to a better team in the future either.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    They've definitely had bullpen issues, but I like their pen moves this winter. K-Rod keeps getting the job done, Mark Lowe was a nice signing, and Justin Wilson had a very strong season for the Yankees. K-Rod and Lowe are the only 30+ year olds in their pen, and even they're only 33 and 34 and coming off very strong seasons. Lowe even pitched pretty well in the playoffs last year for Toronto.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes. The full version is archived here: https://web.archive.org/web/20100331074828/http://overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2010/03/twins-and-statistical-analysis.html
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I was with you up until the extension. Abad has been downright awful vs LHB 3 of the 4 seasons. I don't think he will find great success here, and I worry we might miscast him as a lefty specialist too.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, it gets back to the philosophical thing. I wouldn't necessarily care about adding a FA reliever if I felt like this team was really working hard to improve the pen (and not necessarily at the expense of the rotation). They've obviously been drafting relievers, but closer to the MLB level it seems more like they are just doing the same old, same old, and crossing their fingers hoping for those draftees to come in and save the day. I don't think the MLB bullpen should really be subject to the exact same long-term "rebuilding" strategies as, say, the lineup or the rotation.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Until Piazza, the HOF had gone 13 years since it last inducted a catcher, but I'm not sure anyone cared all that much. Assuming Mauer retires at the end of his current contract, there will only be 7 years between him and Pudge hitting the ballot. And with the overall backlog and steroids era issues, I wouldn't be so confident that Pudge sails in that quickly. Posada might get some love at the same time as Pudge too, and Victor Martinez could hit the ballot at the same time as Mauer.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes. Especially since few if any of the younger guys will be ready opening day, and a number of our returning pitchers (Jepsen, May, and Fien) aren't locks to be in our 2017 pen anyway.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not sure relievers (at least, non-closers) have much interest in a "prove it" deal, even if they are good they aren't going to break the bank trying again next winter. That said, I also agree he wouldn't have much interest in an option year either. Last we heard, Bastardo wanted 3/18 and apparently that is not happening. He could still get something like 2/10, 2/12, or 3/13.5, etc., no?
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Correct me if I am wrong, but the implication was that by not signing a FA reliever, those pitchers would be called up when ready, and the Twins were expecting that to be early. If you're not calling them up when ready, not signing a FA reliever, and giving nice long leashes to Fien, Pressly, and Tonkin... arg...
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I wasn't aware the Twins could only afford one or the other. Also, Park has yet to actually demonstrate he is an MLB hitter to the degree that Bastardo has demonstrated he is a MLB pitcher, not to mention whether a DH really helps the Twins with Sano ticketed for the OF. "Not wretched" is a uselessly low standard when building the bullpen of a hopefully competitive team. And it's not just an issue of quality -- it's also depth, both in 2016 and beyond. We all love Perkins, Jepsen, and May at the moment, but one of those guys has recently seen his health and career go in the wrong direction, and the other two quite possibly won't be a part of the 2017 Twins bullpen. You might need 2 guys to emerge soon as plus relievers from your minor leagues just to offset those losses and maintain the "not wretched" status quo. It would be even more difficult to actually try to make a plus bullpen soon out of these parts.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    So if Rogers is ready, Tonkin deserves two months, and Fien and Pressly are both worth sticking with, that doesn't leave much room for Burdi, Chargois, or Melotakis by May 1st as suggested in another thread, does it? Also, how much trust and upside do you realistically have in Tonkin, Fien, and Pressly at this point? Even if they stick and contribute something, it's getting harder and harder to envision a scenario where those guys help at the top of the pen, which was sort of the problem with the 2015 bullpen to begin with. Fien, Pressly, and Tonkin were fine in 2015, Boyer was great, even Duensing, Graham, and Thompson managed to be decent for stretches -- yet none of those acceptable performances mattered much when we needed help at the top of the pen in the stretch drive. Frankly, this team should be adding a guy who could realistically and immediately be trusted to slot in near the top, and letting the above guys duke it out for the lower leverage spots with the new faces looking to get their feet wet. With so few guaranteed contractual commitments, we're at no risk of too many talented players for too few spots. But we need help at the top right away, and we need an opportunity to evaluate guys for future top end, high leverage duty.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    See my post above -- Bastardo is only the primary option now (with Clippard, I guess) because the Twins have already passed on many other better and perhaps cheaper options. If the Twins had a case against signing Bastardo, but understood they needed immediate help in the pen, they should have acquired someone else long ago. They simply don't believe they need immediate help in the pen.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Not to mention, Bastardo wasn't the only option. Tony Sipp, Shawn Kelley, etc. Our division rival signed Mark Lowe for 2/11, got K-Rod in a salary dump for 2/13.5, and traded for Justin Wilson (from the Yankees just after we made our own deal with the Yankees). The Mariners got Benoit as a 1/8 salary dump. Trevor Cahill (11.6 K/9 with the Cubs late last year, 8 K's in 5.1 IP in the playoffs) signed for 1/4. No evidence the Twins pursued any of these options, many of which would have only required a one or maybe two year commitment. The Twins aren't simply choosing between internal options and Bastardo, or rationally avoiding 3 year deals, or exceptionally confident in their sleeper relief prospects. They are primarily overrating their current group of MLB relievers and guys like Abad, and under-rating how poor and untrustworthy much of their 2015 bullpen actually was.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Of course, Jepsen is FA after 2016, Perkins is coming off an injury and pretty disastrous finishes the past two seasons, and it's not clear quite yet that May shouldn't be starting. We could use help there right now, and will probably need additional help there in 2017. No need to wait for Burdi to pitch himself into that mix (which might be mid-2016 before he could arrive, and maybe 2017 before he's actually comfortable and trusted in a key role). Plenty of room to sign a FA now, and still accommodate any prospects emerging.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I might agree with you if we actually saw the young pitchers last year. Rogers (or Berrios) and Meyer clearly showed with their 2015 performance that they deserved a chance to help bolster the pen late in the year. Why should we trust the 2016 team to aggressively promote guys who haven't even reached that level of accomplishment yet?
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