Otto von Ballpark

Please let's not make this into an abstract technical discussion of "sunk costs", I think we all know what the poster meant in baseball terms.

There might be something to that, although the sample is still very small. Apart from hardly having a chance to fully "warm up" as a MLB SP so far, May has also been on a bit of a short leash as SP too, mostly for circumstances outside his control (MLB debut in 2014, then late spring start and some full season innings progression pacing in 2015).

For the record, while I am one of the most vocal proponents of FA relievers around here, I don't have a big problem with May in the pen. (I am less enamored of Nolasco's potential return to the rotation.) My issue is I think the pen could use more immediate help than just May, 3 years and $20 mil is not that expensive even for the Twins, and not all reliever acquisitions this winter have involved commitments that high (Lowe, K-Rod, Benoit, etc.). It should also be noted that Jepsen is set to hit free agency next winter, and Fien is still year to year and might very well not be worth his arb award next winter. Even Perkins is only guaranteed salary through 2017, and those 3 guys represent the sum total of our future salary obligations in the bullpen. So there is still plenty of flexibility in our pen apart from May.

Swarzak actually started the Twins 3rd game of the 2012 season, and stayed in the rotation for a couple more turns until a 2.2 IP, 3 HR, 6 run performance. After a month of long relief, he returned to take Jason Marquis' spot in the rotation again in late May, and gave up 6 runs on 9 hits in 3.2 IP. In spring training that year, he also had 2 starts and 15.1 IP in 6 games total, which was the 6th highest IP-to-G ratio on the staff (behind only starters Liriano, Pavano, Blackburn, Hendriks, and Marquis). http://cleveland.indians.mlb.com/stats/sortable.jsp?c_id=cle#playerType=ALL&elem=%5Bobject+Object%5D&tab_level=child&click_text=Sortable+Player+pitching&game_type='S'&season=2012&season_type=ANY&league_code='MLB'&sectionType=sp&statType=pitching&page=1&ts=1450459756475&team_id=142&sportCode='mlb'&split=&active_sw=&position=&page_type=SortablePlayer&sortOrder='desc'&sortColumn=ip&results=&perPage=50&timeframe=&last_x_days=&extended=0 So presumably he was in the running for a rotation spot throughout that time, had he been able to perform. I had forgotten he had some good starts in 2011, although he also had a few real clunkers too. He finished the year with 6 starts, and despite 4 of them being quality starts, he managed a 5.85 ERA and .323 BAA in that stretch. And of course, all of this was after his atrocious 6.21 ERA full season as a starter at AAA in 2010. Up through that point, he had been an exclusive starter as a pro.

It's interesting that this feeling still persists among pitchers. I know relievers still don't make as much money as starters, but they're definitely way above bench players in the modern game, in terms of respect and value (and even salary). Heck, amateur teams have closers, etc., so it's weird to see some pitchers still resist the move. I guess it's another thing I won't understand about the pro athlete psyche.

Since he is listed at 6'5", I think we'd all have to agree with this statement.

Love the old clip of Kepler, I had never seen that before! That's a swing I can relate to...

Chris Young actually already signed a while ago, two year, $13 mil with Boston: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/12/red-sox-sign-chris-young.html

For the record, the post of yours that prompted the mention of Cervelli (and others) simply asked, "What was Ryan going to do in the last two offseasons to better address the position going forward without selling the farm system?" That bar is, at minimum, having a better complement / Plan B entering 2015 than Pinto, Herrmann, and Fryer. It doesn't take hindsight (or "selling the farm") to clear that threshold of expected contribution. Also for the record, I don't mind the Hicks-Murphy deal now, but that still doesn't excuse the poor planning of a year ago.

Actually, the Cubs owed Sweeney $2 mil upon release (his $1.5 mil salary for 2015, and a $500k buyout on a 2016 option -- I was surprised he was signed for such a long term). The rest of his 2015 story sounds a little like Jason Bartlett circa 2013...

What? Several on this board called for those exact moves. We invested an additional $97 million on the rotation last winter (Hughes extension plus Santana), while only actually adding one pitcher for 2015-2016. It would have been easy to justify $40 mil or even $82 mil to potentially address a position of even greater weakness instead, for a longer period of time, especially if it also meant we wouldn't guarantee $12 mil to Suzuki (thus the net cost of Montero or Martin would have only been 3/28 mil or 5/70 mil respectively). Not to mention targeting a capable backup (not unlike Murphy in that regard) in Cervelli, Castillo, etc. as Suzuki insurance, if not partner or replacement. Catcher is a tough position to fill because you generally can't shift players to it, but when you have a void, it's difficult to capably fill any position externally. Still, you have to try. Ultimately, I would have been fine with Suzuki at 2/15 or 2/18 or whatever, or AJ, or Suzuki at 2/12 plus a veteran backup (like Suzuki circa 2014) if I believed we had put forth our best effort to address the position. The timing of the Suzuki extension and our inactivity that followed at the position, as other catchers changed hands and we spent further on the rotation, suggests that we did not put forth our best effort to address catcher in 2014-2015. I tend to think it was over-rating the familiarly of Suzuki, although misreading the market, mis-prioritizing a Hughes extension, etc. were other potential factors.

Sure, a hall of fame hitter in Molitor did it, largely by moving to DH and staying healthy. That's a terrible argument for justifying an early, exclusive commitment to catcher Suzuki last year.

2013? The Twins made abundantly clear they didn't trust Pinto in 2014, it didn't take hindsight to know he wasn't a viable option for 2015, concussion or not. None of this is a hindsight argument, you can comb the archives and find me and others questioning the early commitment to Suzuki and sitting out the catcher market last winter. Heck, I would have endorsed signing Suzuki for more than 2/12 if necessary, provided we waited to explore other options first. But committing to him as early as we did, with the suspect internal options behind him, and passing on other external options for at least a calendar year after the extension -- it doesn't take hindsight to question that strategy, no. I am surprised this is a controversial point for some.

No hindsight required to see that committing to Suzuki as your only reasonable option at the position for 2015, while other options were changing hands without requiring much talent in return, was probably a mistake.

There were starters in that list that didn't cost the farm, doesn't that invalidate your claim? Long term answers meeting your ridiculously high standards are hard to acquire at any position. The threshold here is complement to or potentially better than our incumbent starter, no?

So your point is there aren't perfect catchers available for free at all times? That's true for every position. Cervelli, Montero, Castillo, etc. would have, at minimum, represented competent partners for Suzuki, if not potential starting replacements. There is no indication the Twins inquired on them, or any catcher, for nearly 12 months after extending Suzuki. That's a missed opportunity, no?

Miguel Montero, Francisco Cervelli, Derek Norris, and Welington Castillo were all available for modest cost in trade last winter. Russell Martin only cost cash and a 2nd or 3rd round draft pick (depending on if we also signed Ervin Santana). AJ was cheap as usual, and Salty was eventually free, neither was a great bet of course but they at least represented an additional bet, which was better than only placing a single bet on Suzuki. All evidence suggests that TR didn't even look at any of these options after he extended Suzuki in July 2014, at least not until July 2015 and perhaps not in earnest until after the 2015 season ended.

Yeah, but given where Jay is coming from, I'm not really sure he will be in position to be a Plan B in 2016 if he goes into it as a starter. I don't think you'll get enough information from him as a starter at lower levels to know if he can be an MLB pen asset, and if you are waiting for Plan A's to fail, I don't think there will be enough time left to switch him back to an accelerated relief path that ends in MLB in 2016.

I don't get the argument that MLB FA relievers are too unpredictable to be worth $20 mil -- but somehow college relievers are worth a ton of top draft choices? Draft slots are very valuable resources too.

Then why invest a ton of top draft picks for those 60-70 innings? That's my point, you should be drafting to find players that are harder to get by other means. That's generally not the case for relievers, the Royals pen has been comprised of a few failed starters, a 10th round draft pick, an international guy, a minor league free agent, a Rule 5 guy (and now an MLB free agent, in Soria), etc.

The original Suzuki contract was fine, with Mauer out we needed catching depth. And even the over-reliance on Suzuki early that season, in the midst of his career year, was defensible too. But the extension was clearly terrible. Not because it was a financial burden or anything, but because it short-circuited any other attempts to address the position. Suzuki was the everyday starter down the stretch in 2014, and we made zero attempt to change that going into 2015. Basically, the commitment to Suzuki put TR in denial about our catcher needs going forward, a denial which took at least a year-plus to undo.

I don't think the Twins were ever banking on Pinto, except perhaps as a potential Mauer time-share partner pre-concussion (a Doumit replacement, if you will). They left him unprotected as a minor league free agent after 2012, gave him the most meager of looks in 2014, then extended Suzuki basically as soon as they could that season. Those latter two points are critical. At that point, Mauer was no longer an option, the Twins were rebuilding, yet they didn't invest anything in a viable starting catcher of the future, and in fact delayed any such attempts with their extension commitment to Suzuki. (At least until now, hopefully, with Murphy.)

Difference is Jay was a college reliever. He's probably not going to be on a starting pitcher fast track through the minors. He probably won't reach AAA as quickly as Sale or the Cardinals pitchers, which will make it harder to predict if he could actually make the immediate jump to the MLB pen. Heck, if he is still starting come July, they will probably have to think about shutting him down due to an excess of innings rather than aggressively promoting him.

To call up Jay early this season would be quite the rush, though, I don't think the Cardinals have quite done that. I think all of their examples already had success as starters at AAA before joining the MLB pen. Hard to see Jay on that path this year -- he's going to need significant starter innings at a lower level if there is any hope for him in that role. And from there, it might be very hard to gauge when he might be ready to skip up to the MLB pen (and risky because if he wasn't ready for the MLB pen, you'd be starting his option clock early).

Didn't the Twins admit a few years ago that they weren't properly scouting for pitcher health in the draft? http://www.sportsbusinessnews.com/node/2020