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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I would have claimed Danny Hultzen over both of them earlier this winter.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Friedrich is out of options which complicates things. You'd have to drop someone from the 40-man to add him right now, then you'd have to give him evaluation opportunities in spring training (presumably taking away opportunities from other relief options) before you'd have to make a decision to put him on your opening day roster or waive him again yourself. Just looking at his age and numbers, that seems like too much of a commitment right now. If he clears waivers and the Rockies outright him, you might get a crack at him as a minor league free agent after the season anyway if you are still interested.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    That's why I use ERA- at times in these discussions, Fangraphs lets you get those stats for starters and relievers separately. You can also easily make custom player lists there for comparison. Here's your list at Fangraphs by career relief ERA-: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2015&month=0&season1=2005&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=7441,6033,3840,10534,4301,6324,8110,2895,6475,3926&sort=14,a
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Teams rarely trade value for a struggling player who is out of options. There is a decent chance that Arcia will be available for pennies on the dollar in March. The Twins don't have a good comparable for Dickerson right now, which means it's very possible the Rays would have asked the Twins for more (i.e. Kepler) or just not be interested at all.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    When one player can cause your bullpen to be near replacement level (Twins relievers 0.3 WAR combined in the 2nd half), that's not a deep pen. That's why I wanted some insurance, another good pitcher who could help us hold steady if Perk had trouble again, or Jepsen regressed, or Fien, or May was needed for rotation duty, etc. And if those guys all came through, with another top arm you'd have a decent chance at a top 10 bullpen. Instead we backfilled, again, with Abad.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know, there were a lot of times when we just didn't have a pitcher we trusted late in the season. May wasn't available all the time, Jepsen was saved for ninth, etc. Didn't have a good long man, didn't always play matchups well, etc.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Is it that frequent? Seems like most of the time, the injury or surgery happens before this point (Baker, Diamond, Nathan, etc.). I think pitchers get babied the next couple months. Unless someone is hiding something, I think all of our starters finished 2015 (Nolasco just barely).
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I have seen that logic before but I still don't buy it. A 2/12 contract to fill out your pen in modern MLB is not the time to start taking a firm stance on ROI. By thag logic, giving up prospects for the privilege of paying Jepsen a similar salary must have been a terrible move? Nobody blinks when you invest that kind of money in a starter coming back from injury, or an international guy. A reliever's potential upside is limited by his role, true, but he also often comes with a higher floor than those guys too.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think the Twins can stash a starter on the DL to open the season, I doubt the starter would agree to it. Unless you are predicting someone gets hurts between now and then, but how many spring training MLB SP injuries have we had? Probably less than 1 per year average, no? You are probably right on Tonkin. They repeatedly picked Stauffer among others over him last season, I don't think their opinion of him will change just because he is out of options.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I agree that is probably points 1 and 2 of their plan (Perkins and Abad), but I am not so sure about #3 yet. As you note, O'Rourke was here in the 2nd half, he just wasn't used properly. They have thus far declined to use Rogers in relief despite obvious opportunity. Melotakis hasn't thrown a competitive pitch in 17 months now, and only had 16 IP at AA before then, so as much as they like him, I don't think he's competing for a spot this spring.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I think the larger point stands -- the Twins bullpen was still very suspect in the 2nd half, and it's largely the same group projected here.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes. Abad's and Nolasco's spots that should easily be in play for the kids. Tonkin and Fien too, probably -- the former has just never been trusted, and the latter is nearly priced out of his role anyway.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I think Clippard has been pretty quiet. Many predicted he'd get 3 years, and he's resisted one year offers. I'd guess he'd have to settle soon for a 2 year deal for a little more than Bastardo? Or maybe he's waiting for an opportunity to close? He wasn't on top of my list this winter, but he's got to be considered as a value play now.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, some of his work last year was as a reliever. Fangraphs has him at a 117 ERA- as a starter last year (with the FIP and xFIP to match), versus 54 as a reliever. (Lower is better for ERA-.) Maybe still not horrible, but closer to Kevin Correia 2014 than Kevin Correia 2013. Although one year at $7 mil for a reliever might have been nice too.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, I will officially put my bullpen acquisition complaints on the shelf for now, and focus on what's to be done going forward. O'Rourke should already be penciled into a strict LOOGY role to open the year, he's shown enough vs LHB at all levels to deserve that, and he's almost 28 years old -- it's time to capitalize on his strengths, not work more on his weaknesses (vs RHB). I want to see Abad held to a VERY high standard in spring training. He's produced solid numbers the past 4 springs, and only produced one valuable season out of the bunch, so I want to see him dominate before he's allowed to make the roster. If he can't do that, let's move on -- we don't need him as a middling lower-leverage arm. http://m.mlb.com/player/472551/fernando-abad?year=2015&stats=career-s-pitching-mlb I also want to see our youngest options get lots of priority innings this spring. Not just Tonkin, Pressly, and Graham, who have already had a relatively decent amount of MLB opportunity, but Meyer (if not starting), Rogers, and Chargois. For that matter, 40-man roster status should not be a limiting factor, and Burdi should get strong consideration too. (Reed, Melotakis, and Williams are such extreme long shots for MLB opening day, we probably shouldn't invest many opportunities in them this spring, although they could be promoted aggressively later.) I'm resigned to the fact that Milone and/or Nolasco may make the opening day bullpen, but I'd prefer to move them aggressively. Nolasco in particular could be a candidate for release. They have usefulness as starter insurance, but their upside isn't so great as to keep them around forever waiting. May should be given consideration for any rotation openings, as should Berrios.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    But there is always that kind of month-to-month variation in player performance, they're not robots. Crediting those short-term variations to external factors is usually a fool's errand, especially for veterans who have long demonstrated similar variations in performance like Pelfrey and Santana.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I had to look it up, but sure enough, Boyer at 47% inherited runners scored was well above league average (30%). If those "extra" inherited runners scored were added to his ERA, he'd be up to 3.32 ERA. Oh, and if he had the same percentage of "unearned" runs allowed as other Twins pitchers, he'd be up to 3.88 ERA (~107 ERA+ rather than his actual 167). Still, I don't think that's the reason Boyer is out of a job so far this winter. It's the fact that even when he has performed decently the past 2 years, his teams still haven't really trusted him in an important role for an extended period. That feels a lot like Abad's upside here too.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    And I have no problem with paying or even over-paying to be risk averse sometimes. Actually, signing a FA reliever this winter would have been paying to be risk averse -- there's a lot of risk to be mitigated in the current Twins 2016-2017 bullpen picture, especially for a team with legit contention aspirations. The Twins too often sit out the market waiting for a bargain, though, or are too eager to try avoiding the market entirely (Suzuki and Hughes extensions). The market can still yield valuable players on fair contracts, perhaps better than what you already have.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Career 99 ERA+ starter posting a 104 (Santana), or a career 88 ERA+ starter posting a 97 (Pelfrey) doesn't need that complicated of an explanation.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    ERA+ is a nice shortcut, but it doesn't tell the whole story, especially for relievers. Among these three, Abad has seen the lowest leverage work, has the worst K rate, the worst performance vs LHB, etc. Sipp and Bastardo also had good seasons earlier in their career, and excellent playoff performances too. (I guess Abad did retire the only batter he faced in the 2014 wild card game. ) By ERA+ the last 3 seasons, Duensing has been 103, 118, and 98. Why not just bring him back too? There's a reason that Sipp and Bastardo got $6 mil for 2016, Duensing is still a FA, and Abad got cut instead of getting an estimated $1.5 mil in arbitration. Marginal wins are very important to teams that want to compete, which hopefully should include the Twins coming off an 83 win season in a wide open division.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Santana was playing a much more valuable position at the time, as evidenced by his much higher salary and guarantee. Of course past PED use and future suspension likelihood is a factor, just like a lot of other factors. It's just not that big of a factor when signing a guy to a 2/12 contract. The whole argument in favor of that deal around here has been its low risk -- it doesn't become notably riskier if there is a very slim chance a player could miss half of the deal unpaid. Also, FYI, such a suspension can only affect one postseason. Jennry Mejia of the Mets will be eligible for the 2016 postseason, despite being suspended for 162 games beginning midseason 2015.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Doesn't "30-year-old relievers... who aren't good enough to be a part of the solution, but not bad enough to lose their jobs" describe Abad perfectly, though? He just turned 30, and his stats absolutely scream this. Career 105 ERA+ in mostly low leverage work -- even last year, he was at 97 ERA+ despite his troubles. In terms of ERA+, almost the spitting image of Brian Duensing who was the poster boy for "not good enough, but not bad enough". Technically Abad is on a minor league deal, but likely in name only as the Twins sort out their 40-man roster this spring before adding him. It's not all that different than bringing back Duensing at a reduced rate, is it? I would think Abad is another strong data point suggesting the bullpen isn't going to get sorted out how you hope in 2016.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Further on this: given that the Twins apparently passed on Lowe (no reports of pursuing him or a similar pitcher, and he signed relatively quickly and reasonably with an AL Central competitor that finished behind us last year), I'm not confident we'll see prudent bullpen moves going forward, even if we "starve the beast."
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Glad to hear it. Keep in mind most of us were advocating for Lowe and similar commitments/talents earlier this winter. I don't think anyone's Plan A was Neal Cotts or whatever is left now.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Starve the beast, eh? I get it, but it's just so speculative at this point. You're waiting for a leopard to change his spots. Signing a FA reliever on the modest scale of Lowe or Bastardo is arguably less of a change of spots (so, more likely), and could obviously have been performed immediately, no waiting required. Heck, we could successfully starve the beast to change his spots, have them prepared to promote the youngsters, just to have too few youngsters healthy and ready to answer the call in 2016-2017.
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