LA Vikes Fan

I think LF is Gordon's spot to lose after this year unless they decide he has to hold down SS until Lewis is ready. Gordon has played the best of any of them at the MLB level and it isn't even very close.

One more thought on next year. I think in this series against Cleveland is a good microcosm for the season. Given the quality of the starting performances, they win the game 2 started by Bieber and we win game 4 started by Ryan 90% of the time. What happened in the other three games? Games 1 and 3 were competitive and we lost both. Why? We could not hit well enough and our bullpen wasn't good enough. Today's game is hard to put into the calculation since Gray couldn't go more than two innings with his hamstring. Although, again we didn't score very many runs and the bullpen was pretty poor. The common thread this season has been bullpen issues and and an inability to score runs. Yes, we have had injuries. Yes, the starting pitching has been inconsistent at best. My view is let's try to solve the two big problems this off-season by getting another bat and at least 2 quality bullpen arms. That's where I think we should put our money. Sorry for the rants. I'm done now and will go watch the Vikings game. Speaking of possible disappointment . . .

Interestingly, while I think the lineup is much worse than you do I don't that the pitching staff is quite as bad as you make it out. As you acknowledge, the starting rotation has two roughly #2/3 guys in Gray and Mahle and you acknowledge that Ryan is basically a solid #4. I think he's more of a solid #3 but we can agree to disagree on that because it really depends on whether he continues to improve next year, as I think, or has reached his ceiling at 26 years old, as you think. Maeda is absolutely a question mark coming back from TJ but I think looking around at other success stories he's likely to be back or close to what he was when we got him from the Dodgers – a solid #3/4 starter for about 130-150 innings who then becomes a good bullpen pitcher down the stretch.. Ober is better than most team's #5 starter and if he falters we do have some depth with with Winder, Varland, and SVR. Yes, the bullpen is a mess - we have about half a good bullpen - and that's why I said we should really put some money into two or three quality bullpen arms for next year. By my count, we have roughly 4 pitchers who can and should be #2-4 starters on a competitive rotation in Gray, Mahle, Ryan, and Maeda. They are backed up by at least 4 young arms that did potentially be the #5 starter or even force their way into the rotation ahead of one of the top four over the course of next season. Plus Paddack will be back by mid-season. That is frankly more than most teams have. Yes, we are missing a true #1 starter. So are about 20 other teams in MLB. Here is the real rub - there aren't any true #1 starters likely to be available in free agency other than deGrom and Verlander, both of whom are likely to sign with their current teams and would not come to the Twins in any event. Trying to sign a guy like Carlos Rodon, Aaron Nola, Taillion, Clevinger, Sale, Kyle Gibson, etc. is more likely than not to be spending a lot of money on guys that aren't any better than the guys you already have. They really do nothing but fill in a full rotation of #3 type starters instead of leaving that one spot open for one of the young guys. The young guys might be worse, they might develop to be better. We won't know if they don't pitch. I've said all year that this team is only a few players short - a strong middle of the order bat, a true #1 starter, and two more quality late inning relievers. We're not going to get all those spots filled in one off-season and couldn't afford it even if the players were available and willing to come to the Twins. I think we have to choose. My view is getting a true #1 starter is about the same price as getting a solid middle of the order bat +1 or 2 quality relievers. Both cost roughly $25-35m a season. I would rather have the bat and relievers because I think you have a better chance of actually hitting on your acquisitions. I also think that level of addition gets us to a competitive team with a shot to win 90+ games.

Interesting. You and I often agree but not here, particularly about the lineup. I think even with full health, a pipe dream regarding Buxton, we are at least one middle of the order bat short even if we keep Correa. Without him, very short. What we have in the lineup right now for next year? Arraez is a great leadoff hitter against right-handed pitching, but doesn't it left-handers very well. He had a great season this year but there's no reason to think he's going to hit .320 again next year. I think Miranda and Corbin made real strides this year and would love to see them hitting in the 6 and 7 holes next year. Polanco can hit 5 and, if he's still here, Correa #2. Buxton can hit 3 or 4 If he isn't hurt, but the Buxton we saw from about June 1 on should hit 6 or 7. So even if you pencil him in AND assume he isn't hurt, we are at least one middle of the order bat short. Without Correa 2 short, without Buxton and Correa, the Royals. Who do we have put in those middle of the order spots? Urshela? Sanchez? Jeffers? Larnach? Kepler? Urshela is a nice player who belongs hitting somewhere between the 6 hole and the 8 hole and Sanchez and Jeffers are end of the order bats with occasional power. Yet hose 3 are the 3 best hitters of the remaining group. Kepler is a very good defensive outfielder who cannot hit. That has now been true for multiple years with 2019 the only real exception. You know, the year of the juiced baseball. He should be the 4th OF or somewhere else. Larnach might be good, he might be average, he might be bad, who knows? He is not been able to say healthy long enough for us to really find that out and he will probably have one of those up-and-down basically rookie year seasons next year. Kirilloff is a complete question mark. as to whether he will ever be able to play baseball at a high level again. They cut off part of his arm bone for goodness sake. I have to believe he will start out the season in AAA and have to show he can play before he even gets a lot of MLB at bats in 2023. Wallner? Who knows, but he's more likely to start the season in AAA and become a major league regular in 2024, if ever. Palacios, Cave, Contreras, just no. I just don't see anyone else that we presently have riding to the rescue. Could Royce Lewis be that guy starting in June or July? Maybe but hard to count on that. I think we have a bottom half of the league offense that can become slightly above average if Correa stays and hits like he did this year AND Buxton has a healthy season. Perhaps more importantly, even if everything comes together we do not have the kind of offense that can carry an average to below average pitching staff. We need at least one middle of the order bat. I will talk about the pitching in a different post.

While I think you're right that we need more pitching I think you badly underestimate Ryan. He has pitched 137 innings at a 3.6 ERA (4.15 FIP) with 9 plus SOs per 9. He's likely to finish a little north of 150 innings. All this in his rookie year; it's a pretty safe bet that this is the floor with a real chance of improvement. He's a solid #3 starter on a contending team and could mature into a #2. Gray already is a #2. Maeda is probably the #3 or #4 starter he was with the Dodgers, not the #1 he was in the short 2020 season. Mahle and Ober both have the potential to be quality back end guys and maybe as high as #3s but at least quality #4 and #5 starters. We should also have Winder, Varland and SVR at AAA to start the season and Paddack back in June/July. Pretty good depth and better IF we stay healthy. As we've seen that's a big IF. I think the starting rotation is competent enough to be the rotation on a 90+ plus win team. We have the same 2 big problems the Twins always have with the starting rotation - no true #1 starter and insufficient depth. We may have that depth with Winder, Varland and SVR, we may not. We clearly don't have the #1 guy. There is very little likelihood one will even be available and then only at inflated prices. Not happening. Let's not overspend on a question mark like Rondon or bring in a bunch of Bundy/Archer types. You can solve that by having a top to bottom good bullpen to back up a better than average but not great rotation. We're probably 3 guys short of that. I would focus on finding 2-3 good relievers and roll with the starters as is. I would then either spend the $35m on Correa if he'll agree to it and add 1 bat or spend some real money on a 1-2 bats. Finding a place to play them is frankly pretty easy. LF is open unless we intend to play Gordon or Larnach there every day. Kepler can move to the bench or be traded to open another or an alternative corner OF spot. Urshela can be traded so Miranda has a spot at 3B and than 1B is open. This is all without a static DH. We can use another Catcher; in fact we need one pretty desperately. That is all without considering any contribution from Kirilloff. I think he's a huge mystery and we shouldn't count on much at all from him next year or frankly in the future at all until he shows he can play. He starts in AAA. There it is. Spend your money on 2 quality relivers and at least 1 quality middle of the order bat. Sit out the starting pitching carousel and run back what you now have hoping for better health,

Cool if Wallner is indeed coming up. I don't get the service time manipulation argument though. I think that even if came up now and stayed for the season he wouldn't get credit for a season of service time. the rule is you have to have 172 days in a year to get a year of service time. I think right now is a free shot but please correct me if I'm wrong We can disagree with how the organization ranks players, but let's not look for conspiracies that don't exist.

I looked this up and I think Cornholio is correct. Varland was added as thee 29th man for a double header. He was required to be returned to the minors the next day. He can come back up at any time thereafter. He does not have to wait 10 days. As far as service time goes, one year of service time for free agency is defined at 172 days. The Twins could bring up Varland for the rest of the season without him accruing a year of service time for free agency.

I predicted 78-84 at the beginning of the season. I’m a little more optimistic now. I say 83-79.

I think we should avoid a rush to judgment on Ryan. He has been quite good in this hi rookie year and is showing us a floor of a solid #3/strong #4 starter. Not a bad return for 2 months of a declining Nelson Cruz. Typically pitchers develop up over their first 2 years of MLB starting work. He needs to improve his command of his breaking pitches but that is the classic kind of thing that occurs over time. I see a real possibility of him becoming as much as a solid #2 in the future, barring injury.

I think we have to assume that Mahle is not coming back for at least a while. I think Varland earned himself a more extended look. Also, I understand Ober will be starting for the Saints over the weekend. If he pitches well, I would like to see a rotation of Gray, Ryan, Bundy, Ober and Varland for the rest of the year. We could add in archer and go with a 6 man rotation since Ryan is starting to run out of gas but we just don't win his starts so I would drop him. When and if Mahle is ready to actually return I would drop out Varland or Ober, whichever one is performing the worst. I would put Winder in the bullpen for the rest of the year in long relief. His constant shoulder issues are a red flag for trying to start him this year. Having said that, we have a "TBD" starter for Sunday. I'm guessing that's going to be Sanchez. Yet I wonder, would that be a good spot for Ober or Winder or even the two of them in combination? We could drop Sanchez and option Megill or Sands to create the room. Varland pitched Wednesday so that may be a day too soon for him, but I would be tempted to think about him starting on 3 days rest. I just don't want to go through a critical 3 game series and trot out Bundy, Archer, and Sanchez as the starting pitchers.

Always good to have subtlety appreciated.

You may have gotten your wish. Garlick is starting in RF for the first game today against the RH starter German. Kepler not in the lineup.

Bundy deserves to be on this list. He’s been the Twins 2nd or 3rd best starter this year, yet everyone is always trying to get rid of him.

Wallner is a nice story but Palacios is a much more important story. Palacios is probably the Twins starting SS next year if Correa goes, at least until Lewis comes back mid season. He may have a chance next year to cement himself as an MLB SS IF he can hit a little bit. If Correa comes back or is signed long term and Lewis stays on track, Palacios could become a very valuable trade chip - a guy who has already shown he can play SS at an above average MLB level defensively who now has shown he can hit AAA pitching. That asset is worth a AAA pitcher with MLB starter upside in a trade. His hitting improvement at AAA is great to see and great for the organization.

Zambora the gorilla girl? I should not admit this but I’m in my early 60s and I remember Zambora the gorilla girl from going to the state fair when I was a teenager. That can’t still exist. And you’re right, the one where she escaped is much better than the sanitized version. More pathos, more drama, just better. Period.

I think this guy is a 2-3 game experiment and gone when we need a spot. It might be a soon as Saturday when we need to activate Mahle. We DFA the guy, no one claims him, and he finishes the season in St. Paul while we see if he can be fixed.

Interesting that the callup for the extra pitching roster spot turned out to be the newly acquired lefty reliever, Austin Davis, right after we brought in Moran for Smeltzer. It seems like left handers in the bullpen became a priority for September. Moran has to stay the rest of the year or he cold be lost on waivers since he is on his 5th callup. I'm guessing Davis will get his shot and he is the cannon fodder if we need to make another move down the road. So who now goes when Mahle comes off the IL on Saturday? DFA Aaron Sanchez? Archer to the IL? Option Megill? Maybe that's why Davis is on the 26 man now, to go when Mahle gets called up?

This would work just as well, same basic concept - let's piggyback Archer and Sanchez in September since they both look like 4-5 inning starters. I suggested starting Sanchez since I think he has a better chance of getting through 5 but I would be fine with Archer going 4, followed by Sanchez for the next 4-5.

I'm hoping that the next turn for that spot on Monday is a Sanchez/Archer piggyback with Sanchez going to first 4-6 followed by Archer for another 3-4. We have the extra pitcher in September. Archer comes in for a clean inning; if Sanchez needs a mid inning replacement it's handled by Theilbar or Fulmer.

As you saw from my earlier post, I'm waffling on whether or not to keep Urshela if we lose Correa. I think your logic convinced me that we probably should keep him around regardless. He is not a great player but he is a useful player and excellent insurance if Miranda suffers a major sophomore slump, Arraez reverts to a .280 hitter with no power, Kirilloff can't hit, Polanco gets hurt and Arraez plays 2B, etc. $8m is actually not a lot for a slightly above average MLB player and it also won't buy you the #1 starting pitcher we really need.

I think were being a little harsh on Ted. He's right; all 3 additions were positive and all 3 have the potential to really help us in the September stretch run. Moreover, prospect cost was not very high. None of the prospects traded profiles as much more than a decent MLB player and most of them will not ever last long on an MLB roster or even get to one. Moreover, all of the acquisitions except Fullmer are controllable for another year and I suspect that the Twins will make real efforts to sign something long-term with Mahle and Lopez, and at least another one-year deal with Fullmer. The other criticisms are valid, although a little bit overstated, but that's not the real point of the article. This isn't about the Front Office performance for the year, it's about how they did at the trade deadline. They did well. I do agree that we needed another bat and didn't get one. I would love to have seen us trade for Vazquez instead of Leon but I really wonder if we had enough prospect capital to get that done. It's hard to get decent catchers and you generally have to overpay. The cream of our farm system is frankly sitting on the MLB roster or the injured list so the trade capital was limited. Still would've liked another bat though. I think you have to give the FO an A or A- for their performance at the trade deadline. Each of us have our own grades for their performance overall for the year. I suspect those grades would be lower.

Is Jose Palacios related to Jermaine Palacios?

That's why now is the time if you're going to do this . . .

I think the perfect spot to give him a try frankly is Tuesday against Boston. He last pitched Thursday the 26th and went 6 innings, 91 pitches. Archer is gassed and that's his day. Put Archer on the IL for 15 days and give this start to Varland. He is then on the 26 man on 9/1, and is replaced when Mahle comes back on 9/2 or 9/3. If Varland is somehow lights out Tuesday then they can send down Megill or Smeltzer for Mahle, both of whom will have been on the roster on 9/1. If I understand how this works that means all of them are playoff eligible in case of injury, need, etc. There's very little downside and some real possible upside in giving Varland a chance. Best case we catch lightning in a bottle for September in Varland and Archer comes back stronger after 15 days off. Worst case Varland gets torched but how much worse is that than another Archer start in his current condition? We have an off day Thursday so the #5 spot only has to come up twice in the 15 day Archer IL stint and we have Smeltzer if we need another spot start. I say let's do this!

Just went to Urshela's Baseball Reference page and realized he's already 30 and will be 31 in October. I don't know why I thought he was younger than that, but I did. I also saw that his slash line this year of .266/.307/.426 (.733) is right in line with his career average of .270/.314/.428 (.742). His career average is a little inflated by 2019 and 2020, years we aren't going back to with the change in the baseball. Add in his poor defensive ratings and the presence of both Miranda and Gordon to play 3B next year, it's hard to see a good case for keeping Urshela at $8m plus a year next year. IF, and it is a big IF, Larnach is around out play LF next year AND Kirilloff is available to play 1B or the OF it's hard to see a place for Urshela other than as a UTL/DH fighting for playing time with Arraez. It's hard to see a 31 year old, average hitting, poor fielding (at least by the stats) corner INF at $8m plus fitting on the roster. Maybe he would sign for a lesser amount or we can trade him for prospects but committing to him through arbitration is a tough sell.