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AlwaysinModeration

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Everything posted by AlwaysinModeration

  1. AlwaysinModeration
    Ten votes posted in the last 24 hours after Christmas. Not doing a full update, but I think it’s worth noting this development in the voting pattern: Helton 81.4% Mauer 81.4%. Mauer pulls even with Helton for the first time, by getting 9 of 10 ballots from 50 to 60, while Helton only got 6 of those 10. Last year Helton fell just 11 votes short of enshrinement, with 72.2% of the vote. His public total via the tracker last year was 78.6%, so he lost 6.4% of that public total when the actual vote totals were released. This year so far, Helton has a net loss of one of his votes from last year—remember he only needs to add 11 measly votes to get in. Historically, if a player is right at the cusp, a bunch of voters add him to their ballot the next year and they get in the following year. This is definitely worth tracking - if Mauer can keep even with Helton, he’s got a good shot of eking in this year on the first ballot.
  2. AlwaysinModeration
    50 votes in: Beltre: 98% (not unanimous) Helton 86% Mauer 80% ————————- Sheffield 74% Wagner 72% A Jones 66% Beltran 62% Utley 52% Everyone drifting down a bit.
  3. AlwaysinModeration
    One other thing helping his candidacy—Ichiro played in the season opening two-game series in Japan at the Tokyo Dome in March of 2019. Those two games delayed Ichiro’s eligibility from this year’s ballot to next year’s. If Ichiro and Beltre were both on this ballot, I think Joe would be receiving less support. It’s still going to be close this year, but fingers cross he can stay above 75%.
  4. AlwaysinModeration
    25 vote mark: Beltre, still 100% Helton, 88% (22 votes) Mauer, 84% (21) Sheffield 76% (18) ———————————- Wagner 72% (17) Andruw Jones 68% (16) Beltran 68% (16) Utley 60% (14)
  5. AlwaysinModeration
    I’m not sure where exactly to start here
  6. AlwaysinModeration
    And Jason Kelce says the play is an absolutely brutal, draining play.
  7. AlwaysinModeration
    Who liked her?
  8. AlwaysinModeration
    That was a remarkable catch. That no KC Chief makes.
  9. AlwaysinModeration
    He was trying to avoid a sack and go out of field goal range. Incredible unfortunate it wound up being a pick.
  10. AlwaysinModeration
    Yeah, and Reader is out. Run the ball.
  11. AlwaysinModeration
    Vikings win, and sit back and watch the rest of the playoff contenders falter the rest of the weekend.
  12. AlwaysinModeration
    While I agree that seems likely to be the ultimate outcome, which is great, “first ballot Hall of Famer” is quite the distinction. Last year there were 8 blank ballots and 12 1-vote ballots.
  13. AlwaysinModeration
    15 votes in. Top Ten currently; Beltre 100% Helton 93.3% Mauer 80% Sheffield 80% Wagner 73.3% Andruw 66.7% Utley 60% Beltran 53.3% ARod 46.7% MannyBManny 40% So far, so good. Hopefully there aren’t too many of those curmudgeonly “Zero!” voters this year.
  14. AlwaysinModeration
    The Hall of Fame voting is underway, and while there have been countless debates on these pages about Joe’s Hall of Fame credentials, we finally have some actual, real, live votes being cast that, you know, matter. Ryan Thibadoux does an annual tabulation of publicly available ballots; many writers post their ballots online, write articles about it, justify their votes, etc. Thibadoux also manages to get ahold of some anonymous ballots as well. The tracker website is here: http://www.bbhoftracker.com As of today, with 11 total votes cast; Joe has 8 of 11 votes, for 72.7%. He needs 75% of the 300+ expected votes. Beltre has 11 of 11, and Helton has a 10 of 11 (91%). Sheffield is tied with Mauer at 72.7%, while others of note, like Billy Wagner, ARod, Andrew Jones, and Chase Utley trail. It’s early days in the voting, but the early signs are quite encouraging.
  15. AlwaysinModeration
    He got 3/71 in 2021 as a 30 year old free agent. He’s not getting more than that as a 32 year old coming off a marginal year (as Bowden says 3/77). MLB Trade Rumors says his floor is 2/34 and that maybe something in the Keuchel contract range from last year (3/55) would be reasonable. Here’s an offer exactly along those lines than I would think reasonable that the Twins might offer: 2 years, 35 million, plus an option year for another 20 million. I think he has upside and be worth adding. Plus, it would be fun when Stroman and Simeon Woods-Richardson are both in the rotation this year.
  16. AlwaysinModeration
    Yes, I see that now too. I’d include either Kepler or Polanco plus a young arm for Manoah. I think he easily has #2 upside.
  17. AlwaysinModeration
    He was suspended for two games earlier this year—this was his first game back. Could have made a big difference in that game if that fumble is called back.
  18. AlwaysinModeration
    I wrote this in another forum, so reposting in this Manoah thread: … Manoah’s fastball and slider are both down 1mph this past season. His walk rate skyrocketed last year, and Ks were down. Maybe he regressed, but maybe he was playing injured. He seems like exactly the sort of multi-year, buy-low trade candidate the Twins might go after. (They usually target trades for guys with more than one year of control.) He’s got four years of control left, so even if he didn’t bounce back right away, he’d have time. A think a reasonable trade would have to start with either Kepler or Polanco. Then then throw in a decent pitching prospect, like Raya, Prielipp, or Canterino. Baseball Trade Values, for what it’s worth, bears this out. Manoah: 14.4 Kepler: 8.9 Raya: 6.9 Prielipp: 5.7 Canterino: 5.2 Also…Winder 4.9, Varland 4.9, Polanco: 4.5. Kepler / Prielipp sounds fair, or if they are in win now, maybe Winder or Varland instead of Prielipp?
  19. AlwaysinModeration
    Kareem Jackson was just suspended 4 games for the hit in Dobbs that cause the fumble on the first drive. The hit that wasn’t even called a personal foul during the game.
  20. AlwaysinModeration
    So, Manoah is listed as the 19th “top trade candidate” by MLB Trade Rumors, and the Blue Jays say they will give him every chance to win the 5th spot in the rotation. MLB Trade Rumors speculates that a trade for a lower ceiling, higher floor arm might be desirable to Toronto. I looked over his numbers. His fastball and slider are both down 1mph this past season. His walk rate skyrocketed last year, and Ks were down. Maybe he regressed, but maybe he was playing injured. If there is any chance the Twins could trade for him, it seems like he could be the sort of multi-year, buy-low trade candidate the Twins could go after. He’s got four years of control left, so even if he didn’t bounce back right away, he’d have time. What would it take? I would think they’d have to start with either Kepler or Polanco, and then throw in a pitching prospect, like Raya, Prielipp, or Canterino. Baseball Trade Values, for what it’s worth, bears this out. Manoah: 14.4 Kepler: 8.9 Raya: 6.9 Prielipp: 5.7 Canterino: 5.2 Also…Winder 4.9, Varland 4.9, Polanco: 4.5. Kepler / Prielipp for Manoah, would that work? Or if they are in win now, would including Winder or Varland be workable?
  21. AlwaysinModeration
    I don’t think it’s worth the bickering. Piranha put together a very tantalizing list of comps for Walker Jenkins to show his immense ceiling, which is definitely higher than Lee’s, Jocko pointed out that 26 games is an extremely small sample size. Eager to see how those comps look after Jenkins puts in a full season. The Twins aren’t trading Jenkins OR Lee. It just won’t happen. So I’m not sure it really matters at the end of the day. In my view, Corbin Burnes isn’t a realistic target.
  22. AlwaysinModeration
    I think the Broncos are favored.
  23. AlwaysinModeration
    Vikings just signed Anthony Barr to their practice squad. Jordan Hicks having some sort of leg surgery.
  24. AlwaysinModeration
    It seems like there would be a way you could game this to use this rule to your advantage.
  25. AlwaysinModeration
    So, first down catch inbounds with 2:19 to go. Flag down, against the defense. Declined. And…the clock doesn’t start? That seems like a situation where the clock should run. They either need to use a timeout or go to the 2:00 warning. That cost the Vikings 40 seconds later on.
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