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The Minnesota Twins kept on rolling, and embarked successfully on the most critical stretch of their schedule. With just two weeks left in the regular season, the Twins are getting closer to full strength and cracking open the Sota Pop. Let's recount the bombas and break down the race for first place. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 9/7 through Sun, 9/13 *** Record Last Week: 5-1 (Overall: 30-18) Run Differential Last Week: +14 (Overall: +48) Standing: 2nd Place in AL Central (1.0 GB) Bomba Counter: 74 (Pace: 93) After watching him limp around and battle through a bad knee for two months, the Twins finally moved Luis Arráez to the Injured List on Tuesday, retroactive to September 9th. There was no indication of a specific setback, so it seems as though they're just trying to give his legs a break as the playoffs approach. He's eligible to return next weekend. Brent Rooker hit his first major-league home run on Tuesday, but on Saturday suffered a forearm fracture when he was hit by a pitch, ending his season. It's a really tough break (literally) for the rookie, but he can take comfort in knowing he made a great first impression, slashing .316/.381/.579 in 21 plate appearances, and will surely be a factor in next year's plans. Jose Berríos, who figures to follow in Game 2, is 3-0 with a 2.78 ERA in his past four starts after notching a victory over St. Louis on Tuesday. Michael Pineda has a 20-to-4 K/BB ratio in 17 ⅔ innings over three starts since rejoining the club. With that trio leading the rotation, and the offense in attack mode, you've gotta feel good about how the Twins are currently shaping up for October. We saw it all come together in a convincing weekend sweep against Cleveland, a team Minnesota could very well face in the playoffs. LOWLIGHTS Nearly every time he's taken the mound as as big-leaguer, things have gone swimmingly for Randy Dobnak. That's how you arrive at a 2.80 ERA through 68 MLB innings. Of late, however, the right-hander has encountered his first bouts of adversity. Three starts ago he was knocked around by the Tigers, who piled up six earned runs on 12 hits in 4 ⅓ innings. In his latest turn, facing the Cardinals in St. Louis on Tuesday, he coughed up an early lead and took the L, yielding five earned runs in 2 ⅔ frames. This time around, his root problem was very different – not so much being hittable (he only allowed two), but completely erratic. In the third inning he loaded the bases on a single, hit-by-pitch and walk, then allowed runs in on another HBP and walk, followed by a fielder's choice and RBI single. It was an uncharacteristic unraveling from the typically poised Dobnak, who wasn't crushed in the outing by any means. Given that he was pitching on three days' rest, I'm inclined not to weigh it too heavily, but seeing the two worst outings of his career within 11 days of one another isn't great. The fact that Dobnak's one inning of struggle was really the only noticeable low point in the entire week says a lot of about what kind of roll the Twins are on right now. TRENDING STORYLINE Aside from trying to stay healthy and take the division, charting out the pitching staff's postseason hierarchy will be the key directive for Rocco Baldelli and his staff in these final two weeks. While the top three starters are well established as we covered earlier, it's unclear who might get the nod as a fourth starter if one is needed. Dobnak didn't help his case last time but he'll get another shot in a big spot against the White Sox on Tuesday. A strong performance against the league's top offense, on the road, would make quite a statement. Presumably, the plan is for Odorizzi to take the ball opposite Lucas Giolito on Wednesday as he makes a late push for a significant role in October. And two days later it'll be Rich Hill going up against the formidable Kyle Hendricks and the Cubs. Facing frontline starters on playoff teams will be a fitting test for these hurlers, as they make their bids to do just that in a few weeks. The bullpen pecking order, too, must be sorted. Just as in the rotation, the top guys are essentially locked in, but the next tier is fluid. Will Jorge Alcala earn high-leverage looks? What about Matt Wisler and Caleb Thielbar? They've looked amazing, albeit in small samples. Can Cody Stashak prove he's sharp enough to be a factor, or will his time spent sidelined cost him a postseason roster spot? Many questions remain to be answered, and the urgency in figuring them out may be increased if the status of Trevor May – who was lifted from Sunday's game due to back cramps – is going to be in question for the playoffs. LOOKING AHEAD The fate of the 2020 regular-season Minnesota Twins could be decided in Chicago this week. First up, it's four games against the White Sox, who carry a one-game division lead into the series. Then the Twins head to the North Side for three games against another first-place team at Wrigley. After that, only five games remain. The Sox are in the driver's seat entirely because of their success against the dregs of the division – they're 18-2 against the Royals and Tigers, 12-14 against all other opponents – so this is their chance to prove it for real and put clamps down on the Central. Minnesota has won both of the first two head-to-head matchups, and if they can do it again here, they'll come out leading the division with 10 days to go. It's all on the line in Chi-town. Should be fun. MONDAY, 9/14: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Jose Berrios v. RHP Dylan Cease TUESDAY, 9/15: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Randy Dobnak v. RHP Dane Dunning WEDNESDAY, 9/16: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – TBD v. RHP Lucas Giolito THURSDAY, 9/17: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Kenta Maeda v. TBD FRIDAY, 9/18: TWINS @ CUBS – LHP Rich Hill v. RHP Kyle Hendricks SATURDAY, 9/19: TWINS @ CUBS – RHP Michael Pineda v. RHP Alec Mills SUNDAY, 9/20: TWINS @ CUBS – RHP Jose Berrios v. RHP Yu Darvish Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 43 | MIN 6, DET 2: Pineda Pitches 7 Innings, Twins Take 4 of 5 Game 44 | MIN 7, STL 3 Game 45 | STL 6, MIN 4 Game 46 | MIN 3, CLE 1: Buxton, Jeffers Sting Bieber; Maeda Sails Through 7 Game 47 | MIN 8, CLE 4: Return of the Bomba Squad Game 48 | MIN 7, CLE 5: Twins Complete Sweep, Shift Focus to White Sox MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
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Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 9/7 through Sun, 9/13 *** Record Last Week: 5-1 (Overall: 30-18) Run Differential Last Week: +14 (Overall: +48) Standing: 2nd Place in AL Central (1.0 GB) Bomba Counter: 74 (Pace: 93) After watching him limp around and battle through a bad knee for two months, the Twins finally moved Luis Arráez to the Injured List on Tuesday, retroactive to September 9th. There was no indication of a specific setback, so it seems as though they're just trying to give his legs a break as the playoffs approach. He's eligible to return next weekend. Brent Rooker hit his first major-league home run on Tuesday, but on Saturday suffered a forearm fracture when he was hit by a pitch, ending his season. It's a really tough break (literally) for the rookie, but he can take comfort in knowing he made a great first impression, slashing .316/.381/.579 in 21 plate appearances, and will surely be a factor in next year's plans. While they'll be without Arráez for a while, and Rooker for good, the Twins are inching closer toward being whole again. Max Kepler returned from IL on Sunday, batting leadoff and playing right field in the sweep-clinching win against Cleveland. It sounds like Mitch Garver could be activated in the coming days, and Jake Odorizzi is also on his way back after throwing an intrasquad game on Friday. With a playoff berth all but assured, Minnesota's primary goal is to be at full strength by the time the first round gets underway. Winning the division is perhaps secondary to getting and staying healthy, but it's an important priority nonetheless, and the Twins are currently in the middle of a decisive stretch toward that end. Here's a look at where their excellent past week has brought them, and where they're headed next. HIGHLIGHTS The Bomba Squad moniker felt more apropos than it has in past weeks, as the awakening Twins offense launched 18 home runs in six games against two of the league's best pitching staffs. Seventeen of 18 runs scored in the sweep over Cleveland came on long balls. Among the contributors to last week's power parade: Byron Buxton mashed three homers in his four starts, including a pair of critical two-run blasts in the Cleveland series. His aggressive swing-at-everything approach is working well as opponents continue to oblige him by serving pitches over the plate. The Twins have won 10 of the last 11 games Buxton has started, including seven straight. What a difference-maker. While Garver's return will be welcomed, Ryan Jeffers is more than taking care of business in his absence. Over the past week, Jeffers did a fine impression of the 2019 Silver Slugger, popping off for three home runs including a rocket shot off the league's best pitcher (Shane Bieber). In fact, he had two of the hardest-hit balls off Bieber all season, in within the span of a few innings. The kid can crush, and his defense behind the plate remains stellar. Even more so than Rooker, Jeffers has firmly entrenched himself in the 2021 picture with his tremendous showing as a big-league rookie. Taking a .200/.279/.281 slash line into Saturday's game, with two singles to show for his past 38 plate appearances, Marwin Gonzalez was badly in need of a slump-breaker. He found it on Saturday with a two-run homer to open the scoring, then put his team on the board with another two-run jack Sunday, later adding a sac fly. Gonzalez has as many RBIs in his past two games (5) as he did in his previous 17. Hopefully this is the start of a hot streak for him; the Twins could sure use it with Arráez out. Also delivering multiple home runs over the past week, some of the usual suspects: Nelson Cruz (3), Josh Donaldson (2), Miguel Sanó (2). When these guys are all doing their things and people are getting on base in front of them, this lineup is scary. Meanwhile, the rotation has been steady and occasionally sensational. Kenta Maeda keeps looking the part as a No. 1 starter. He was magnificent on Friday, out-dueling Bieber with seven shutout innings. Maeda is now 5-1 with a 2.43 ERA and league-leading 0.74 WHIP. He's all but guaranteed that to be Minnesota's Game 1 starter in the postseason. Jose Berríos, who figures to follow in Game 2, is 3-0 with a 2.78 ERA in his past four starts after notching a victory over St. Louis on Tuesday. Michael Pineda has a 20-to-4 K/BB ratio in 17 ⅔ innings over three starts since rejoining the club. With that trio leading the rotation, and the offense in attack mode, you've gotta feel good about how the Twins are currently shaping up for October. We saw it all come together in a convincing weekend sweep against Cleveland, a team Minnesota could very well face in the playoffs. LOWLIGHTS Nearly every time he's taken the mound as as big-leaguer, things have gone swimmingly for Randy Dobnak. That's how you arrive at a 2.80 ERA through 68 MLB innings. Of late, however, the right-hander has encountered his first bouts of adversity. Three starts ago he was knocked around by the Tigers, who piled up six earned runs on 12 hits in 4 ⅓ innings. In his latest turn, facing the Cardinals in St. Louis on Tuesday, he coughed up an early lead and took the L, yielding five earned runs in 2 ⅔ frames. This time around, his root problem was very different – not so much being hittable (he only allowed two), but completely erratic. In the third inning he loaded the bases on a single, hit-by-pitch and walk, then allowed runs in on another HBP and walk, followed by a fielder's choice and RBI single. It was an uncharacteristic unraveling from the typically poised Dobnak, who wasn't crushed in the outing by any means. Given that he was pitching on three days' rest, I'm inclined not to weigh it too heavily, but seeing the two worst outings of his career within 11 days of one another isn't great. The fact that Dobnak's one inning of struggle was really the only noticeable low point in the entire week says a lot of about what kind of roll the Twins are on right now. TRENDING STORYLINE Aside from trying to stay healthy and take the division, charting out the pitching staff's postseason hierarchy will be the key directive for Rocco Baldelli and his staff in these final two weeks. While the top three starters are well established as we covered earlier, it's unclear who might get the nod as a fourth starter if one is needed. Dobnak didn't help his case last time but he'll get another shot in a big spot against the White Sox on Tuesday. A strong performance against the league's top offense, on the road, would make quite a statement. Presumably, the plan is for Odorizzi to take the ball opposite Lucas Giolito on Wednesday as he makes a late push for a significant role in October. And two days later it'll be Rich Hill going up against the formidable Kyle Hendricks and the Cubs. Facing frontline starters on playoff teams will be a fitting test for these hurlers, as they make their bids to do just that in a few weeks. The bullpen pecking order, too, must be sorted. Just as in the rotation, the top guys are essentially locked in, but the next tier is fluid. Will Jorge Alcala earn high-leverage looks? What about Matt Wisler and Caleb Thielbar? They've looked amazing, albeit in small samples. Can Cody Stashak prove he's sharp enough to be a factor, or will his time spent sidelined cost him a postseason roster spot? Many questions remain to be answered, and the urgency in figuring them out may be increased if the status of Trevor May – who was lifted from Sunday's game due to back cramps – is going to be in question for the playoffs. LOOKING AHEAD The fate of the 2020 regular-season Minnesota Twins could be decided in Chicago this week. First up, it's four games against the White Sox, who carry a one-game division lead into the series. Then the Twins head to the North Side for three games against another first-place team at Wrigley. After that, only five games remain. The Sox are in the driver's seat entirely because of their success against the dregs of the division – they're 18-2 against the Royals and Tigers, 12-14 against all other opponents – so this is their chance to prove it for real and put clamps down on the Central. Minnesota has won both of the first two head-to-head matchups, and if they can do it again here, they'll come out leading the division with 10 days to go. It's all on the line in Chi-town. Should be fun. MONDAY, 9/14: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Jose Berrios v. RHP Dylan Cease TUESDAY, 9/15: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Randy Dobnak v. RHP Dane Dunning WEDNESDAY, 9/16: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – TBD v. RHP Lucas Giolito THURSDAY, 9/17: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Kenta Maeda v. TBD FRIDAY, 9/18: TWINS @ CUBS – LHP Rich Hill v. RHP Kyle Hendricks SATURDAY, 9/19: TWINS @ CUBS – RHP Michael Pineda v. RHP Alec Mills SUNDAY, 9/20: TWINS @ CUBS – RHP Jose Berrios v. RHP Yu Darvish Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 43 | MIN 6, DET 2: Pineda Pitches 7 Innings, Twins Take 4 of 5 Game 44 | MIN 7, STL 3 Game 45 | STL 6, MIN 4 Game 46 | MIN 3, CLE 1: Buxton, Jeffers Sting Bieber; Maeda Sails Through 7 Game 47 | MIN 8, CLE 4: Return of the Bomba Squad Game 48 | MIN 7, CLE 5: Twins Complete Sweep, Shift Focus to White Sox MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
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Although I'm not a robo-umps advocate in general, I actually agree that this year offered the perfect opportunity to test it out (while enhancing safety as well). It seems the biggest issue they're running into is clearly communicating calls in a rapid fashion. For example: Let's say it's a called third strike and a guy is stealing second. When the ump is immediately barking the out call, the catcher can put the ball in his pocket. When you have to look to a board and see it, they might be whipping it down to second while a runner is barreling in needlessly, creating injury risk, confusion, etc. That's just one of many examples. There are probably ways to solve this, but doing so in rushed fashion for an already abnormal season was probably a bit much.
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No signs? Rosario by fWAR: 2017: 2.6 2018: 3.5 2019: 1.2 2020: 0.4 (162-G pace: 1.2) Rosario by bWAR: 2017: 1.5 2018: 4.1 2019: 1.7 2020: 0.5 (162-G pace: 1.5) As illustrated in the article, underlying batted ball and fielding data show that his declining offensive and defensive metrics are no mirage. I guess you could say there's no drop-off coming in the "near future" in that it's already happening right now.
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I was a major skeptic of Major League Baseball's ability to carry out a 2020 season of record. I won't run away from it. As I stared down the immense challenges ahead in early April, my conclusion was that we needed to give up the ghost. Six months later, I can officially say: I was wrong. And I couldn't be more pleased.The concerns were valid, and the sailing has not always been smooth. But one by one, MLB has managed to navigate every foreboding obstacle. Overwhelming logistical barriers. The league's exhaustive protocols have been sound. There were a couple of early outbreaks, affecting the Marlins and Cardinals, but the virus seemingly never spread between clubhouses, and for the most part cases have been minimized. The traveling restrictions, the in-game considerations, the testing cadences ... they all seem to be working. Player and public health implications. Some players and personnel have gotten sick, yes. But can anyone realistically argue that the number would not be far higher if all these individuals were left to their own devices? The latest testing results yielded a new positive rate of 0.008%. I suppose the resource drain could be criticized, but to my knowledge, shortage of testing supplies is not a nation-wide issue. There doesn't appear to be much if any collateral damage from baseball being played. Playing in empty stadiums under altered rules. It's been strange, yes, but I still find myself enjoying the product. The league and its broadcasters have all-in-all done a tremendous job of delivering a familiar experience. Caliber of play has been high, and as a fan I've been looking forward to each night's game. Many of the new twists, like extra-inning men-on-second and an extended 60-man player pool, are intriguing and fun in their own ways. Validity of a shortened and contorted season. This is the one thing I'm still a bit stuck on. Should a 60-game season, with warped schedules and an expanded playoff format, really be counted the same as a typical one in the game's annals? At this point last year, the World Series Champion Washington Nationals were 16-25, and would've been outside the playoff picture. Presently, they are ... 16-25, and all but certain to miss the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Yankees are in real danger of missing out. And while this gives me great joy as a Twins fan, it gives me pause as a baseball fan. This is clearly one of the best teams in the league, eliminated from October because of some injuries and slumping in what would've normally been the first third of the schedule? How am I gonna feel if the Twins get ousted by the White Sox 2-1 in a first-round playoff series? It's all a little tough to come to grips with, but you know what? I can deal with it all. As a fan who cherishes the sport's legacy and tradition, I can accept it. Despite my reservations coming in, I just find myself happy to have baseball. It has proven an invaluable distraction from the state of the world, and the dynamic of a concentrated 60-game sprint only plays up this benefit. There's rarely a night off or a moment to take a breath, which is why – during the current odd two-day break – I find myself struck by a sense of sadness in the Twins' absence, and a looming dread at the spectre of an approaching finish line. I'll be honest, when I listened to Rob Manfred and Co. wax poetic about the game's power to heal and restore normalcy – while at the same time embroiled in a highly publicized money dispute – I almost gagged at the schmaltzy sentimentality. But for me personally, the return of baseball has been a very wonderful thing, more than I ever expected. I'm extremely grateful for it. MLB's successful experiment even gives me hope that the NFL can pull off its season, set to get underway on Thursday night. If not for baseball successfully paving the way, I would have minimal confidence. To the players, coaches, trainers, umpires, media, staffers, executives and – yes, even owners and commissioner – who have come together to make this season happen under extraordinary difficulty: thank you. So much. And to Mr. John Bonnes ... Yes, I am loving watching baseball this year. You were right, I was wrong. Yeah yeah. Luckily, I'm sure you won't get a big head about it. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
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The concerns were valid, and the sailing has not always been smooth. But one by one, MLB has managed to navigate every foreboding obstacle. Overwhelming logistical barriers. The league's exhaustive protocols have been sound. There were a couple of early outbreaks, affecting the Marlins and Cardinals, but the virus seemingly never spread between clubhouses, and for the most part cases have been minimized. The traveling restrictions, the in-game considerations, the testing cadences ... they all seem to be working. Player and public health implications. Some players and personnel have gotten sick, yes. But can anyone realistically argue that the number would not be far higher if all these individuals were left to their own devices? The latest testing results yielded a new positive rate of 0.008%. I suppose the resource drain could be criticized, but to my knowledge, shortage of testing supplies is not a nation-wide issue. There doesn't appear to be much if any collateral damage from baseball being played. Playing in empty stadiums under altered rules. It's been strange, yes, but I still find myself enjoying the product. The league and its broadcasters have all-in-all done a tremendous job of delivering a familiar experience. Caliber of play has been high, and as a fan I've been looking forward to each night's game. Many of the new twists, like extra-inning men-on-second and an extended 60-man player pool, are intriguing and fun in their own ways. Validity of a shortened and contorted season. This is the one thing I'm still a bit stuck on. Should a 60-game season, with warped schedules and an expanded playoff format, really be counted the same as a typical one in the game's annals? At this point last year, the World Series Champion Washington Nationals were 16-25, and would've been outside the playoff picture. Presently, they are ... 16-25, and all but certain to miss the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Yankees are in real danger of missing out. And while this gives me great joy as a Twins fan, it gives me pause as a baseball fan. This is clearly one of the best teams in the league, eliminated from October because of some injuries and slumping in what would've normally been the first third of the schedule? How am I gonna feel if the Twins get ousted by the White Sox 2-1 in a first-round playoff series? It's all a little tough to come to grips with, but you know what? I can deal with it all. As a fan who cherishes the sport's legacy and tradition, I can accept it. Despite my reservations coming in, I just find myself happy to have baseball. It has proven an invaluable distraction from the state of the world, and the dynamic of a concentrated 60-game sprint only plays up this benefit. There's rarely a night off or a moment to take a breath, which is why – during the current odd two-day break – I find myself struck by a sense of sadness in the Twins' absence, and a looming dread at the spectre of an approaching finish line. I'll be honest, when I listened to Rob Manfred and Co. wax poetic about the game's power to heal and restore normalcy – while at the same time embroiled in a highly publicized money dispute – I almost gagged at the schmaltzy sentimentality. But for me personally, the return of baseball has been a very wonderful thing, more than I ever expected. I'm extremely grateful for it. MLB's successful experiment even gives me hope that the NFL can pull off its season, set to get underway on Thursday night. If not for baseball successfully paving the way, I would have minimal confidence. To the players, coaches, trainers, umpires, media, staffers, executives and – yes, even owners and commissioner – who have come together to make this season happen under extraordinary difficulty: thank you. So much. And to Mr. John Bonnes ... Yes, I am loving watching baseball this year. You were right, I was wrong. Yeah yeah. Luckily, I'm sure you won't get a big head about it. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
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Oooookay, hold the phones here. Let's break this down. Rosario's 7 RBIs over the past week: 2-run HR against CWS when they were already up 6-1RBI single and solo HR in losing effort against DET on Sunday3-run double on Monday on a grounder down the first base line that (fortunately) hit the bag instead of turning into an out During this span he also cost the Twins runs by missing plays in the outfield and making multiple outs on the base paths. So, no, he did no by any stretch of the imagination "save the season." Meanwhile, as the Twins lost six straight games in the previous week, Rosario went 2-for-17 with zero XBH and zero RBIs.
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This is not a reaction to yesterday's game, or the last week, which is why much broader statistics were used to make the case that Rosario has been a sub par contributor dating back to last year. And no, if Kepler would've done the same the article would not have been published since, A: Kepler is under contract for several years, not a non-tender candidate in the offseason; and B: Kepler was arguably the team's most valuable player last year, Rosario probably not in the top ten. For your talk about "cherry-picking categories" (I literally shared his entire Statcast profile, which is almost all below average, and fWAR which is an all-consuming performance metric) you sure seem to be zeroing in on non-existent argument here and ignoring the one that was actually made. This ain't about the "eye test." Look at the numbers. They speak for themselves.
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It's been clear for some time that Eddie Rosario's days with the Twins are numbered, as a result of several converging factors: top prospects on the rise, impending free agency, and – most significantly – his own declining performance. The latter of these issues is becoming so unignorable it should be accelerating his exit timeline. The Twins can start making preparations now.His gaudy HR and RBI numbers on a historically explosive offense last year obscured the reality: he was a mediocre player showing some seriously diminished skills. Rosario's .300 on-base percentage ranked as the eight-lowest among MLB hitters and his defense rated near the bottom of all outfielders. Among 135 qualified big-league position players last year, Rosario ranked 114th in fWAR. This was a big year for the left fielder, who knew he needed to turn around his declining performance trend and build his case for free agency. Before the season he announced his intentions to address weaknesses in the statistical categories that modern front offices care about. "Defense, walks, OPS, those are the numbers in the game right now that are bad for me. OK. I want to try to change that. That's it," he said. To his credit, Rosario has made definitive improvements to his plate patience. He's chasing out of the zone less, whiffing less, and has more than doubled his paltry 3.7% BB rate from a year ago. Unfortunately, this hasn't led to an uptick in overall production – quite the contrary, in fact. His OPS is down 70 points, and his defense rates as poorly as ever. The notion that last year's drop-off owed to an ankle injury hasn't been substantiated (unless the ankle is still bothering him, which is possible but hardly reaffirming). He's a below-average runner and Statcast's Outs Above Average metric places him in the 5th percentile among all fielders. Download attachment: rosariostatcast97.png His range is awful and the strong arm doesn't come close to making up for it. It all adds up to this: Among 158 qualified big league position players this year, Rosario ranks 122nd in fWAR. On top of this, he continues to be a maddeningly undisciplined and reckless player on the field; on Sunday he blatantly blew through a stop sign at third, getting thrown out easily to stifle a big rally, and then later watched a caromed ball sit in front of him in left field as runners circled the bases because he (wrongly) assumed it was a ground rule double. On Monday he ran into another out on the bases, attempting to stretch a double into a triple and getting thrown out by a mile. He's doing all this for a prorated salary of $7.75 million this year, and figures to command a similar amount in 2021, his final year of arbitration. How do you justify that expense with multiple top prospects waiting in the wings behind him? You don't. Eddie is on his way out. So why keep feeding him everyday playing time when you could be prepping those future fixtures who do not have the benefit of playing minor-league games this year? To an extent, this becomes a moot point with Max Kepler sidelined, but if he returns – and even up until then – it would behoove the Twins to start mixing in Rosario's replacements to both get them familiar and, frankly, improve the production from left field. A bit of exposure to an intense September stretch run atmosphere in the majors could benefit Alex Kirilloff or Trevor Larnach greatly, if they are expected to be a big part of Minnesota's championship plans for 2021. Brent Rooker is of course already here, and demonstrating that it's possible to acclimate quickly from the alternate site. I get that Rosario is a streaky player. It's entirely possible he'll get on a roll and validate his consistent nods at the heart of the batting order. But it's also very possible he won't. There's only so much time left to turn around his lackluster performance, and many underlying signs suggest that Rosario's decline is more attributable to diminishing athleticism than bad luck or the standard ebbs and flows of baseball. The Rosie ride has been a wild one over these past six years, filled with plenty of thrills and frustrations. Now, as that ride reaches an end, it's time for the Twins to prep themselves for the future in left field. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
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His gaudy HR and RBI numbers on a historically explosive offense last year obscured the reality: he was a mediocre player showing some seriously diminished skills. Rosario's .300 on-base percentage ranked as the eight-lowest among MLB hitters and his defense rated near the bottom of all outfielders. Among 135 qualified big-league position players last year, Rosario ranked 114th in fWAR. This was a big year for the left fielder, who knew he needed to turn around his declining performance trend and build his case for free agency. Before the season he announced his intentions to address weaknesses in the statistical categories that modern front offices care about. "Defense, walks, OPS, those are the numbers in the game right now that are bad for me. OK. I want to try to change that. That's it," he said. To his credit, Rosario has made definitive improvements to his plate patience. He's chasing out of the zone less, whiffing less, and has more than doubled his paltry 3.7% BB rate from a year ago. Unfortunately, this hasn't led to an uptick in overall production – quite the contrary, in fact. His OPS is down 70 points, and his defense rates as poorly as ever. The notion that last year's drop-off owed to an ankle injury hasn't been substantiated (unless the ankle is still bothering him, which is possible but hardly reaffirming). He's a below-average runner and Statcast's Outs Above Average metric places him in the 5th percentile among all fielders. His range is awful and the strong arm doesn't come close to making up for it. It all adds up to this: Among 158 qualified big league position players this year, Rosario ranks 122nd in fWAR. On top of this, he continues to be a maddeningly undisciplined and reckless player on the field; on Sunday he blatantly blew through a stop sign at third, getting thrown out easily to stifle a big rally, and then later watched a caromed ball sit in front of him in left field as runners circled the bases because he (wrongly) assumed it was a ground rule double. On Monday he ran into another out on the bases, attempting to stretch a double into a triple and getting thrown out by a mile. He's doing all this for a prorated salary of $7.75 million this year, and figures to command a similar amount in 2021, his final year of arbitration. How do you justify that expense with multiple top prospects waiting in the wings behind him? You don't. Eddie is on his way out. So why keep feeding him everyday playing time when you could be prepping those future fixtures who do not have the benefit of playing minor-league games this year? To an extent, this becomes a moot point with Max Kepler sidelined, but if he returns – and even up until then – it would behoove the Twins to start mixing in Rosario's replacements to both get them familiar and, frankly, improve the production from left field. A bit of exposure to an intense September stretch run atmosphere in the majors could benefit Alex Kirilloff or Trevor Larnach greatly, if they are expected to be a big part of Minnesota's championship plans for 2021. Brent Rooker is of course already here, and demonstrating that it's possible to acclimate quickly from the alternate site. I get that Rosario is a streaky player. It's entirely possible he'll get on a roll and validate his consistent nods at the heart of the batting order. But it's also very possible he won't. There's only so much time left to turn around his lackluster performance, and many underlying signs suggest that Rosario's decline is more attributable to diminishing athleticism than bad luck or the standard ebbs and flows of baseball. The Rosie ride has been a wild one over these past six years, filled with plenty of thrills and frustrations. Now, as that ride reaches an end, it's time for the Twins to prep themselves for the future in left field. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
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The Twins carried a five-game losing streak into the past week, and extended it to six with a brutal series-opening loss against the White Sox. From there, Minnesota managed a 180-degree turnaround, sparking a five-game winning streak to stay right in the thick of a very tight AL Central race. Let's break it down. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/31 through Sun, 9/6 *** Record Last Week: 5-2 (Overall: 25-17) Run Differential Last Week: +7 (Overall: +34) Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (1.5 GB) Bomba Counter: 56 (Pace: 80) It wouldn't be a week in the 2020 season if there weren't some significant injury news to report. This time around it was Max Kepler going down, placed on the Injured List with a left adductor strain. It marks the first time in his career Kepler has landed on the DL/IL. Keeping in mind what happened late last year, when the right fielder was hampered by a shoulder injury in September and rendered almost totally ineffective in the playoffs, it would make sense if the Twins take a very cautious approach and keep him sidelined for most of the month. Donaldson never looked quite right early in the season, seemingly hampered by the calf issue that eventually forced him into a month-long IL stint, but the version we're seeing now is bringing the rain. It's crystal-clear that nothing is more important to the Twins' chances of a deep postseason run than keeping Donaldson and Buxton healthy and effective. They'll need some help, though, and the past week brought plenty of promising signs on that front. Big Mike made a big impression in his return to the fold Tuesday, allowing two runs over six innings while racking up a whopping 16 whiffs on 81 pitches. Pineda was efficient and in control throughout, picking up right where he left off in 2019 and looking very much like a playoff starter. The same can be said, thankfully, for José Berríos, who seems to be distancing himself from some early-season struggles. The righty was masterful in Wednesday's win over the White Sox, tossing six innings of one-run ball with eight strikeouts. His last three starts have all come against relatively strong opponents (Milwaukee, Cleveland, Chicago) and Berríos has allowed only four earned runs in 17 ⅔ innings. Opponents are hitting .175 against him with one home run during that span. Toss in another shutdown performance from Randy Dobnak (five scoreless innings on Friday) plus the continued excellence of Kenta Maeda (eight strikeouts in a quality start Saturday), and the Twins are looking pretty strong on the rotation front. The bullpen is mostly holding up too (Sunday notwithstanding), thanks in large part to some unlikely heroes. Caleb Thielbar and Matt Wisler each had a pair of key appearances as they continue to prove themselves as critical low-key additions to the Twins bullpen. Thielbar picked up the win in Minnesota's slump-snapping victory against Chicago on Tuesday, with a scoreless seventh in relief of Pineda. Thielbar added two more shutout frames in the back end of Friday's doubleheader, lowering his ERA to 1.38 in 13 total innings. He has 17 strikeouts and four walks. Amazing. Wisler, meanwhile, has been phenomenal in the opener role – I praised him for it in last week's column – and now he's shown he can close too. He picked up the save with a scoreless ninth on Tuesday, and he too tossed two clean innings Friday. Wisler has a 0.96 ERA and 24-to-11 K/BB ratio in 18 ⅔ innings on the season. Opponents are hitting .125 against him and his all-powerful slider. Not enough can be said about what incredible offseason pickups these were by the front office, costing essentially nothing and delivering enormous returns. LOWLIGHTS Wisler and Thielbar continuing to excel has been all the more vital as other bullpen fixtures falter. The unit hit its low point of the season on Sunday when Trevor May, Tyler Duffey, Sergio Romo and Devin Smeltzer combined to cough up eight earned runs on 11 hits in four innings against an unspectacular Detroit offense. May has given up home runs in three of his last four appearances and his ERA has ballooned to 5.74. Taylor Rogers had another rough outing on Monday, although the three runs scored against him were all unearned due to Kepler's outfield drop. Opponents are hitting .391 against Rogers in his past 10 appearances. Regression is surely a factor for this bullpen, which was performing at an absurdly high level early on, but it doesn't help that relievers are constantly working in stressful, high-leverage situations thanks to an offense that continues to so rarely create separation. Coming in, the Twins were viewed as one of the league's best offensive teams not only because of their depth in the lineup, but also their depth beyond the lineup. Ehire Adrianza was coming off a career-best season with the bat, while Marwin Gonzalez is here largely because of the offensive ability he brings along with his defensive versatility. Neither one is doing anything at the plate, and it's a huge problem for this team. Adrianza was hitless in his past 12 plate appearances before doubling high off the right field wall in his first at-bat Sunday. His two hits in that game were his only ones of the week. For the season, he is batting .190, and is 1-for-18 with runners in scoring position. Gonzalez went 2-for-17 on the week, dropping his overall line to a miserable .218 /.301/.306. He inexplicably batted cleanup on Tuesday, despite being one of the weakest bats on the roster. Gonzalez hasn't collected an extra-base hit in two weeks while playing almost everyday. The Twins have little choice but to play both regularly right now, with Kepler injured, Arráez aching, and both Buxton and Donaldson being eased in. The inability of either Adrianza or Gonzalez to make anything happen at the plate is greatly suppressing the lineup and hurting the team. Download attachment: gleemanWPAtweet.png TRENDING STORYLINE The Twins called up Ryan Jeffers, and now Rooker. Is anyone else from the alternate site going to be joining the action here in the final month? If any other players are expected to possibly play a role in the postseason picture, the Twins will basically need to make that decision within the next week; in order to be eligible for the playoffs, players must be on the active roster by Tuesday, September 15th. Will we see additional young talents factor for the Twins in the remaining weeks? It's worth noting that pitching prospects Jordan Balazovic and Matt Canterino were added to the 60-man player pool last week, though it seems highly unlikely either would jump straight to the majors at this juncture. A bat seems more plausible, especially given the struggles of Minnesota's depth players, and the ongoing injury concerns in the outfield. LOOKING AHEAD It's going to be a weird week. On Monday, the Twins wrap up their four-day, five-game home series against Detroit. Then, they travel to St. Louis for two games in one day on Tuesday. This is followed by two consecutive days off, and then a massive home series against Cleveland over the weekend. MONDAY, 9/7: TIGERS @ TWINS – RHP Michael Fulmer v. RHP Michael Pineda TUESDAY, 9/8 (1): TWINS @ CARDINALS – Jose Berrios v. TBD TUESDAY, 9/8 (2): TWINS @ CARDINALS – TBD v. TBD FRIDAY, 9/11: INDIANS @ TWINS – RHP Shane Bieber v. RHP Randy Dobnak SATURDAY, 9/12: INDIANS @ TWINS – RHP Zach Plesac v. RHP Kenta Maeda SUNDAY, 9/13: INDIANS @ TWINS – RHP Triston McKenzie v. RHP Rich Hill Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 36 | CWS 8, MIN 5: Drop KickGame 37 | MIN 3, CWS 2: Pineda, Buxton Shine in Return to RosterGame 38 | MIN 8, CWS 1: Berríos Dominates, Bats Bust OutGame 39 | MIN 2, DET 0Game 40 | MIN 3, DET 2Game 41 | MIN 4, DET 3: Fashionably LateGame 42 | DET 10, MIN 8: Bullpen Finally BreaksMORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
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Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/31 through Sun, 9/6 *** Record Last Week: 5-2 (Overall: 25-17) Run Differential Last Week: +7 (Overall: +34) Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (1.5 GB) Bomba Counter: 56 (Pace: 80) It wouldn't be a week in the 2020 season if there weren't some significant injury news to report. This time around it was Max Kepler going down, placed on the Injured List with a left adductor strain. It marks the first time in his career Kepler has landed on the DL/IL. Keeping in mind what happened late last year, when the right fielder was hampered by a shoulder injury in September and rendered almost totally ineffective in the playoffs, it would make sense if the Twins take a very cautious approach and keep him sidelined for most of the month. Joining Kepler on IL was Alex Avila, who is dealing with lower back soreness (perhaps helping explain his 1-for-17 stretch at the plate leading up the move). He was replaced by Willians Astudillo, who brings some energy and hitting ability but is a major downgrade defensively. Luis Arráez experienced a setback with his balky knee, limping out of Wednesday's game against Chicago, but it appears relatively minor as the Twins didn't put him on the shelf and he returned to the lineup on Sunday. This is just something the second baseman will be dealing with, and the Twins will be attempting to manage, the rest of the way. Fortunately, the past week's negatives were counterbalanced and then some by refreshingly positive news on the health front. Josh Donaldson and Byron Buxton made their highly anticipated returns and wasted no time impacting the club, helping turn around a dire cold spell. Michael Pineda debuted in triumphant fashion. Kepler going on IL also opened the door for Brent Rooker to get called up from St. Paul, giving the Twins a much-needed righty power bat infusion. He debuted on Friday, playing both ends of the doubleheader, and has made a fast impression with three hits and three RBIs in his first four games. Ahead, we'll discuss the contributions of returning stars, as well as some other positive developments in a big rebound week for the Twins. HIGHLIGHTS As the Twins skidded into the trade deadline last Monday, and then passed on the opportunity to bring in any help, our collective hopes were pinned on the returns of key sidelined players, who were hailed as saviors for a spiraling squad. They ... pretty much lived up to the billing. Buxton came blazing back onto the scene Tuesday, robbing a home run and driving in the winning run as Minnesota snapped its six-game losing streak with a 3-2 win. There really is a different energy and vibe to this team when Buxton is on the field, which helps explain why the dramatic difference in the Minnesota's record when he plays (79-33) and when he doesn't (47-45) dating back to the start of last year. His abilities to impact games defensively and punish the ball are obvious difference-makers, but what really strikes me is the speed element he brings this a team, which otherwise has very little (the Twins rank last in the majors in steals and attempts). Since returning, Buxton has already reached on two grounders that would've been fairly standard outs for almost any other hitter, and the second of those was a biggie. He puts pressure on the defense. He turns routine infield choppers into base hits. These are the kinds of things that can be game-changers for a slumbering offense as much as a monster home run. That said, we'll also take the monster home run. Donaldson delivered one of those in his second game back – an atom smash to straightaway center field – after coming through with a two-run double in his return on Wednesday. Like Buxton, he quickly made his presence known both on offense and defense. Donaldson never looked quite right early in the season, seemingly hampered by the calf issue that eventually forced him into a month-long IL stint, but the version we're seeing now is bringing the rain. It's crystal-clear that nothing is more important to the Twins' chances of a deep postseason run than keeping Donaldson and Buxton healthy and effective. They'll need some help, though, and the past week brought plenty of promising signs on that front. Big Mike made a big impression in his return to the fold Tuesday, allowing two runs over six innings while racking up a whopping 16 whiffs on 81 pitches. Pineda was efficient and in control throughout, picking up right where he left off in 2019 and looking very much like a playoff starter. The same can be said, thankfully, for José Berríos, who seems to be distancing himself from some early-season struggles. The righty was masterful in Wednesday's win over the White Sox, tossing six innings of one-run ball with eight strikeouts. His last three starts have all come against relatively strong opponents (Milwaukee, Cleveland, Chicago) and Berríos has allowed only four earned runs in 17 ⅔ innings. Opponents are hitting .175 against him with one home run during that span. Toss in another shutdown performance from Randy Dobnak (five scoreless innings on Friday) plus the continued excellence of Kenta Maeda (eight strikeouts in a quality start Saturday), and the Twins are looking pretty strong on the rotation front. The bullpen is mostly holding up too (Sunday notwithstanding), thanks in large part to some unlikely heroes. Caleb Thielbar and Matt Wisler each had a pair of key appearances as they continue to prove themselves as critical low-key additions to the Twins bullpen. Thielbar picked up the win in Minnesota's slump-snapping victory against Chicago on Tuesday, with a scoreless seventh in relief of Pineda. Thielbar added two more shutout frames in the back end of Friday's doubleheader, lowering his ERA to 1.38 in 13 total innings. He has 17 strikeouts and four walks. Amazing. Wisler, meanwhile, has been phenomenal in the opener role – I praised him for it in last week's column – and now he's shown he can close too. He picked up the save with a scoreless ninth on Tuesday, and he too tossed two clean innings Friday. Wisler has a 0.96 ERA and 24-to-11 K/BB ratio in 18 ⅔ innings on the season. Opponents are hitting .125 against him and his all-powerful slider. Not enough can be said about what incredible offseason pickups these were by the front office, costing essentially nothing and delivering enormous returns. LOWLIGHTS Wisler and Thielbar continuing to excel has been all the more vital as other bullpen fixtures falter. The unit hit its low point of the season on Sunday when Trevor May, Tyler Duffey, Sergio Romo and Devin Smeltzer combined to cough up eight earned runs on 11 hits in four innings against an unspectacular Detroit offense. May has given up home runs in three of his last four appearances and his ERA has ballooned to 5.74. Taylor Rogers had another rough outing on Monday, although the three runs scored against him were all unearned due to Kepler's outfield drop. Opponents are hitting .391 against Rogers in his past 10 appearances. Regression is surely a factor for this bullpen, which was performing at an absurdly high level early on, but it doesn't help that relievers are constantly working in stressful, high-leverage situations thanks to an offense that continues to so rarely create separation. Coming in, the Twins were viewed as one of the league's best offensive teams not only because of their depth in the lineup, but also their depth beyond the lineup. Ehire Adrianza was coming off a career-best season with the bat, while Marwin Gonzalez is here largely because of the offensive ability he brings along with his defensive versatility. Neither one is doing anything at the plate, and it's a huge problem for this team. Adrianza was hitless in his past 12 plate appearances before doubling high off the right field wall in his first at-bat Sunday. His two hits in that game were his only ones of the week. For the season, he is batting .190, and is 1-for-18 with runners in scoring position. Gonzalez went 2-for-17 on the week, dropping his overall line to a miserable .218 /.301/.306. He inexplicably batted cleanup on Tuesday, despite being one of the weakest bats on the roster. Gonzalez hasn't collected an extra-base hit in two weeks while playing almost everyday. The Twins have little choice but to play both regularly right now, with Kepler injured, Arráez aching, and both Buxton and Donaldson being eased in. The inability of either Adrianza or Gonzalez to make anything happen at the plate is greatly suppressing the lineup and hurting the team. TRENDING STORYLINE The Twins called up Ryan Jeffers, and now Rooker. Is anyone else from the alternate site going to be joining the action here in the final month? If any other players are expected to possibly play a role in the postseason picture, the Twins will basically need to make that decision within the next week; in order to be eligible for the playoffs, players must be on the active roster by Tuesday, September 15th. Will we see additional young talents factor for the Twins in the remaining weeks? It's worth noting that pitching prospects Jordan Balazovic and Matt Canterino were added to the 60-man player pool last week, though it seems highly unlikely either would jump straight to the majors at this juncture. A bat seems more plausible, especially given the struggles of Minnesota's depth players, and the ongoing injury concerns in the outfield. LOOKING AHEAD It's going to be a weird week. On Monday, the Twins wrap up their four-day, five-game home series against Detroit. Then, they travel to St. Louis for two games in one day on Tuesday. This is followed by two consecutive days off, and then a massive home series against Cleveland over the weekend. MONDAY, 9/7: TIGERS @ TWINS – RHP Michael Fulmer v. RHP Michael Pineda TUESDAY, 9/8 (1): TWINS @ CARDINALS – Jose Berrios v. TBD TUESDAY, 9/8 (2): TWINS @ CARDINALS – TBD v. TBD FRIDAY, 9/11: INDIANS @ TWINS – RHP Shane Bieber v. RHP Randy Dobnak SATURDAY, 9/12: INDIANS @ TWINS – RHP Zach Plesac v. RHP Kenta Maeda SUNDAY, 9/13: INDIANS @ TWINS – RHP Triston McKenzie v. RHP Rich Hill Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 36 | CWS 8, MIN 5: Drop Kick Game 37 | MIN 3, CWS 2: Pineda, Buxton Shine in Return to Roster Game 38 | MIN 8, CWS 1: Berríos Dominates, Bats Bust Out Game 39 | MIN 2, DET 0 Game 40 | MIN 3, DET 2 Game 41 | MIN 4, DET 3: Fashionably Late Game 42 | DET 10, MIN 8: Bullpen Finally Breaks MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
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The thing about the ball not being as juiced is that everyone's hitting the same balls. The Twins aren't just worse than they were last year -- they're vastly worse relative to the competition. I mean for cripes sakes the Royals and Tigers have been better offensive teams this year.
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For sure. I'd never claim to be a nitty-gritty nuts and bolts hitting analyst like Parker. This is a very high-level overview, sparked simply by my reaction to going over the Statcast charts for a number of hitters throughout the lineup and noticing this striking trend. It matches my eye-test, which has been telling me they are frequently making very weak contact in situations where last year they were keying in and crushing. To your point about the situational spots, I went through some Baseball Ref numbers and found that while the Twins are still very successful when ahead in the count, the biggest discrepancy is in even counts. Last year: .292/.299/.528 This year: .233/.244/.378 Is this meaningful? Who knows. The sample is obviously small. But it kinda jibes with my perception that a certain tentativeness is at play in situations where hitters seemed much more comfortable & authoritative last year.
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Last year, it seemed as though the Twins' philosophy at the plate could more or less be boiled down to a simple mantra: grip it and rip it. They were aggressive early in counts, they swung hard, and they punished opposing pitchers on a daily basis. I don't know if that philosophy has materially changed this year, but the numbers certainly suggest it has.Under the terminology of MLB's Statcast system, a "Barrel" is defined as "a well-struck ball where the combination of exit velocity and launch angle generally leads to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage." In other words, it is the highest quality of contact. In 2019, the Twins led all of baseball in Barrel % at 10.1%. In 2020, they rank 21st in baseball at 6.6%. They've dropped from third to 13th in Average Exit Velocity (AEV). What is causing this drop-off in detonations for the Bomba Squad? One might surmise it is the result of injuries forcing lesser players into the lineup, and that is certainly a partial factor, but hardly the driving force. The biggest problem is that many of Minnesota's key sluggers from a year ago are hitting the ball with minimal authority, seemingly because they are sacrificing power for contact. The prime example is Jorge Polanco. He's been one of the toughest hitters in the majors to strike out, ranking in the 97th percentile for both K-rate and whiff rate. But his Barrel % and AEV are both in the 7th percentile. His Hard Hit % is in the 5th. Download attachment: polancostatcast.png Last year, Polanco piled up 69 extra-base hits and slugged .485. This year he's at eight and .388. He has improved his zone coverage and is making more contact, but there's little evidence that he's benefiting from it. Next up: Max Kepler, who often accompanies Polanco at the top of the lineup. Kepler too has been tough to fan this year – he's in the 89th percentile for whiff rate and 72nd for K-rate. But he too has lost some punch. His Barrel % is below average (48th percentile) and his AEV (36th percentile) and Hard Hit % (30th percentile) are around the bottom third of all hitters. Last year he was solidly above-average in all three categories. Download attachment: keplerstatcast.png Even Eddie Rosario, who sometimes reflects the embodiment of a "grip it and rip it" approach, has really come to profile as more of a slap hitter. He's been very tough to strike out (87th percentile for K-rate) and doesn't have much swing-and-miss in his game (71st percentile for whiff rate) ... but every Statcast measure rates his quality of contact as low. He's 24th percentile in Barrel % and around the bottom third for AEV and Hard Hit %. His xwOBA, xBA, xSLG ... all well below average. Download attachment: rosariostatcast.png Finally it's worth mentioning Luis Arráez. His profile this year is more typical and expected, but it's worth calling out the stark contrast: 95th/99th percentiles for strikeouts and whiffs, 22nd/4th percentiles AEV/Hard Hit %. Download attachment: arraezstatcast.png Whereas Miguel Sanó and Nelson Cruz are both swinging out of their shoes, striking out frequently but plastering the ball upon contact, nearly every other Twins player falls starkly on the other side of the spectrum. The result, as we're seeing, is an offense that has not been particularly threatening or intimidating on whole. Many fans have wondered whether the change in hitting coaches may be a contributor to the team's offensive drop-off. The answer, based on these insights: maybe. James Rowson seemed to be a champion of the aggressive approach that spurred the lineup's success last year, but that's not to say Edgar Varela isn't. One way or another, several Twins hitters could benefit from taking a page from Cruz and Sanó – often the lineup's only productive players of late – and sacrificing some contact for power. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
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Under the terminology of MLB's Statcast system, a "Barrel" is defined as "a well-struck ball where the combination of exit velocity and launch angle generally leads to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage." In other words, it is the highest quality of contact. In 2019, the Twins led all of baseball in Barrel % at 10.1%. In 2020, they rank 21st in baseball at 6.6%. They've dropped from third to 13th in Average Exit Velocity (AEV). What is causing this drop-off in detonations for the Bomba Squad? One might surmise it is the result of injuries forcing lesser players into the lineup, and that is certainly a partial factor, but hardly the driving force. The biggest problem is that many of Minnesota's key sluggers from a year ago are hitting the ball with minimal authority, seemingly because they are sacrificing power for contact. The prime example is Jorge Polanco. He's been one of the toughest hitters in the majors to strike out, ranking in the 97th percentile for both K-rate and whiff rate. But his Barrel % and AEV are both in the 7th percentile. His Hard Hit % is in the 5th. Last year, Polanco piled up 69 extra-base hits and slugged .485. This year he's at eight and .388. He has improved his zone coverage and is making more contact, but there's little evidence that he's benefiting from it. Next up: Max Kepler, who often accompanies Polanco at the top of the lineup. Kepler too has been tough to fan this year – he's in the 89th percentile for whiff rate and 72nd for K-rate. But he too has lost some punch. His Barrel % is below average (48th percentile) and his AEV (36th percentile) and Hard Hit % (30th percentile) are around the bottom third of all hitters. Last year he was solidly above-average in all three categories. Even Eddie Rosario, who sometimes reflects the embodiment of a "grip it and rip it" approach, has really come to profile as more of a slap hitter. He's been very tough to strike out (87th percentile for K-rate) and doesn't have much swing-and-miss in his game (71st percentile for whiff rate) ... but every Statcast measure rates his quality of contact as low. He's 24th percentile in Barrel % and around the bottom third for AEV and Hard Hit %. His xwOBA, xBA, xSLG ... all well below average. Finally it's worth mentioning Luis Arráez. His profile this year is more typical and expected, but it's worth calling out the stark contrast: 95th/99th percentiles for strikeouts and whiffs, 22nd/4th percentiles AEV/Hard Hit %. Whereas Miguel Sanó and Nelson Cruz are both swinging out of their shoes, striking out frequently but plastering the ball upon contact, nearly every other Twins player falls starkly on the other side of the spectrum. The result, as we're seeing, is an offense that has not been particularly threatening or intimidating on whole. Many fans have wondered whether the change in hitting coaches may be a contributor to the team's offensive drop-off. The answer, based on these insights: maybe. James Rowson seemed to be a champion of the aggressive approach that spurred the lineup's success last year, but that's not to say Edgar Varela isn't. One way or another, several Twins hitters could benefit from taking a page from Cruz and Sanó – often the lineup's only productive players of late – and sacrificing some contact for power. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
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An ugly week on the road knocked the Minnesota Twins out of their customary perch atop the division while fueling concerns around the team's ability to rise to the occasion here in this abbreviated campaign. Let's sort it all out as the trade deadline bears down and a key series against first-place Chicago looms. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/24 through Sun, 8/30 *** Record Last Week: 1-5 (Overall: 20-15) Run Differential Last Week: -13 (Overall: +27) Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (1.5 GB) Bomba Counter: 47 (Pace: 81) This 2020 season has been shortened and repeatedly shaken by events taking place outside of the baseball world. Last week became another example, with the Twins joining several other major-league teams in choosing to postpone a game in protest of the nation's enduring social injustice issues. I think our Friday post from RandBalls Stu succinctly and powerfully summarized the significance and palpable takeaway behind a statement such as this. Interestingly, the White Sox have been tied to both those pitchers, as well as Cleveland's Mike Clevinger, who appears somewhat likely to move tomorrow. That would qualify as good news in a sense, as the Indians would be losing a key weapon for any potential postseason match-up, but of course, adding Clevinger to a Sox rotation already fronted by Lucas Giolito would make Minnesota's other chief division rival all the more dangerous. Whether or not they make a trade for a starting pitcher, the Twins will get some rotation help in the coming week with Michael Pineda's suspension reaching an end. He's scheduled to make his season debut on Tuesday against Dallas Keuchel and the White Sox. LOOKING AHEAD The Twins return home with their tails between their legs, but on the bright side, they are 12-3 at Target Field this year. They'll have their work cut out for them in the first half of the week. Coming off a dominant no-hitter in his last outing, Giolito will toe the rubber in Monday's series opener as Hill tries to build upon his solid results from the past week. Pineda's return on Tuesday will be key, both for Minnesota's chances of winning the series and their outlook for the rest of the season and playoffs. If the Clevinger-to-Chicago rumors come to fruition, we could very well be looking at a second matchup between Jose Berríos and Mr. Sunshine within a week's time on Wednesday. A four-game set against Detroit at Target Field next weekend (with the Tigers lining up as "home team" in Friday's nightcap) will offer the Twins a chance for some much-needed redemption. MONDAY, 8/31: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Lucas Giolito v. LHP Rich Hill TUESDAY, 9/1: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – LHP Dallas Keuchel v. RHP Michael Pineda WEDNESDAY, 9/2: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Reynaldo Lopez v. RHP Jose Berrios FRIDAY, 9/4 (G1): TIGERS @ TWINS – LHP Matthew Boyd v. RHP Randy Dobnak FRIDAY, 9/4 (G2): TIGERS @ TWINS – TBD v. LHP Tarik Skubal SATURDAY, 9/5: TIGERS @ TWINS – RHP Casey Mize v. RHP Kenta Maeda SUNDAY, 9/6: TIGERS @ TWINS – RHP Spencer Turnbull v. LHP Rich Hill Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 30 | MIN 3, CLE 2: Bullpen Bends, Does Not BreakGame 31 | CLE 4, MIN 2: Cleveland CounterpunchGame 32 | CLE 6, MIN 3: Cleveland Gets To Romo, Takes SeriesGame 34 | DET 8, MIN 2Game 35 | DET 4, MIN, 2Game 36 | DET 3, MIN 2: This Is Not What You WantMORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
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- matt wisler
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Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/24 through Sun, 8/30 *** Record Last Week: 1-5 (Overall: 20-15) Run Differential Last Week: -13 (Overall: +27) Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (1.5 GB) Bomba Counter: 47 (Pace: 81) This 2020 season has been shortened and repeatedly shaken by events taking place outside of the baseball world. Last week became another example, with the Twins joining several other major-league teams in choosing to postpone a game in protest of the nation's enduring social injustice issues. I think our Friday post from RandBalls Stu succinctly and powerfully summarized the significance and palpable takeaway behind a statement such as this. It certainly wasn't the motivator, but taking Thursday night off in Detroit had the benefit of giving Minnesota's roster some rest in the middle of this grueling stretch of the schedule, and Friday's doubleheader rainout extended the break. Any extra bit of time off helps as the beleaguered Twins try to get healthy and move back toward full strength. In this case it sure seemed to help Max Kepler, who raised alarms when he exited Wednesday's game after fouling a ball of his foot. Not only was he back in the lineup for both games on Saturday, but he even started the first one in center. Unfortunately, while the respite may have been good for Kepler's health, it didn't seem to help the team at large as they put forth an utterly lackluster showing in Detroit, suffering an embarrassing sweep as their offense fell further into the pits of despair. The injury carousel kept spinning as Eddie Rosario was forced out of Saturday's nightcap, with his left ankle starting to bark. This is troubling as it's the same ankle that hampered him last season and – by his own admission – sapped his performance, especially on the defensive side. Rosario did come back to make a late pinch-hitting appearance on Sunday, which is somewhat relieving. In a bit of potentially positive news, there seems to be some optimism that Josh Donaldson is nearing a return, with Rocco Baldelli hinting that the third baseman could be activated during the team's upcoming homestand. To say the lineup could use his presence would be putting it very mildly. Let's run back the past week's developments, which weren't ALL bad. HIGHLIGHTS After starring in the previous week, Kenta Maeda got this past one off to a (short-lived) good start with five innings of one-run ball against the Indians, paving way for Minnesota's lone victory in Cleveland. The bullpen backed him up nicely in a 3-2 victory, with Caleb Thielbar, Trevor May, Sergio Romo and Taylor Rogers combining to allow one run over four innings. On Tuesday, Rich Hill backed up Maeda's strong start in the series opener, allowing one run over five innings himself. Hill looked rough in the first frame, missing his spots and giving up a bunch of hard contact, but then settled in to cruise through the next four, handing a 2-1 lead to the bullpen. It was a hugely encouraging rebound for the veteran following his rocky return from IL six days earlier. Outside of Maeda and Hill, the Twins' best starter over the past week was ... Matt Wisler? He served as opener once again in the back half of Saturday's doubleheader, and as usual he got the job done. It wasn't as clean as some of this past performances – he gave up three walks and a hit over 1 ⅔ innings – but Wisler once again kept the opponent off the board to set a bullpen game in the right direction. The offseason waiver pickup has been nothing short of sensational through the first half of his first season with the Twins. Through 16 ⅔ innings he has a 1.15 ERA and 19-to-10 K/BB ratio with just eight hits allowed. He has recorded more than three outs in every appearance since his first. In a bullpen that's had some ups and downs, and been asked to cover a whole lot of innings, Wisler's value can hardly be overstated. Minnesota's plan of fully ramping up his slider usage has paid off brilliantly. He's throwing the pitch 80% of the time and it's holding opponents to a .133 average and .200 slugging percentage, with a 37.8% whiff rate. In terms of both limiting contact, and limiting the loudness of that contact, he's elite. Nelson Cruz hit three more home runs and continues to be the sole source of consistent output on this offense. He finished the week tied for the MLB lead with 13 long balls and is having a special season at age 40. If only Cruz was getting any kind of support from those around him. LOWLIGHTS It's getting tougher and tougher to be patient with this lineup, which failed to score more than three runs in any of the past week's six games. Coming up fairly quiet against Cleveland and its world-class pitching staff is one thing, but the following flat effort over the weekend against Detroit was flat-out flabbergasting. The Twins' first game of the series, coming off two days rest with a heavily favorable pitching match-up, was perhaps their most vexing loss of the entire season thus far. Tigers started Matthew Boyd entered the game with an 0-4 record, 8.48 ERA and 1.74 WHIP. Opponents had slashed .317/.380/.610 with eight homers against the embattled left-hander. Seemingly a perfect opportunity for the Bomba Squad to get right. Instead, they simply helped Boyd get right as he mowed through their lineup three times, holding Minnesota to one earned run over six innings with six strikeouts, no walks, and four hits allowed. It was Boyd's best start this year and the worst performance yet from the Twins, who were dominated on both ends in an 8-2 laugher, getting outhit 16-to-4 over seven innings. The offense's continued inability to get going is growing into a bigger problem as the pitching staff starts to show some warts. Randy Dobnak's career-worst outing against Detroit sealed their fate in Saturday's series-opening blowout loss. In the nightcap, Tyler Duffey's first real hiccup of the season proved crippling as a two-run homer from Miguel Cabrera buried the Twins 4-2. On Sunday, Maeda had the gall to allow three runs over six innings, and that was of course enough to get tagged with a loss. Earlier in the week, on Tuesday, Jorge Alcala's spectacular rookie season hit a pothole when he coughed up three runs in the sixth inning, turning a 2-1 lead into a 4-2 loss. The following night it was Romo who turned into a pumpkin, yielding three runs to Cleveland in the eighth to shatter a tie. It's too soon to be gravely concerned about the Twins bullpen, but seeing regression catch up there while the underperforming offense fails to balance out in the opposite direction is taking a toll. Among the culprits: The Twins are getting nothing from the catcher position, which was such a huge strength in 2019. The past week saw Alex Avila go 1-for-9 with six strikeouts. Ryan Jeffers is still looking for his first walk or extra-base hit as a big-leaguer. Pressed into everyday duty, Marwin Gonzalez is not delivering. He went 3-for-19 with three singles and eight strikeouts in six games, always while batting near the heart of the order. Rosario was 3-for-17, with a double representing his only XBH. After notching six home runs in his first 17 games, he's gone deep once in 17 games since. Luis Arráez finished 4-for-18 with one double, zero walks, one run scored, and one RBI. It's the same story here as with many others: no patience or power to support an empty (and altogether underwhelming) batting average. Jorge Polanco went 5-for-20, and sports a sub-par .702 OPS even after homering on Sunday. His inability to square the ball up and drive it with any kind of authority is almost completely negating the value of his ability to put it in play and avoid strikeouts: I haven't yet even mentioned any of the fringy backups being funneled playing time as a result of regulars being sidelined. And yes, it's true that Jake Cave (3-for-12), LaMonte Wade Jr. (1-for-10), Ildemaro Vargas (0-for-4) and Ehire Adrianza (2-for-7) have failed to help the cause much. But focusing on them obscures the ultimate reality, which is that this offense won't simply be fixed by Donaldson, Byron Buxton or Mitch Garver re-entering the fold. The Twins need the guys in those bullets above to snap out of their funks, because right now this just isn't a very impressive team. Since opening the season 10-2, the Twins have gone 10-13. They are 5-8 against the Royals and Tigers. Conversely, the White Sox – who leapfrogged Minnesota in the standings over the weekend – are 11-2 against those clubs. If you can't take advantage of the Central's soft underbelly, you're not going to win the division. Plain and simple. So far the Twins have come up woefully short in this department. TRENDING STORYLINE Donaldson's possible return will certainly be a key narrative in the coming days, but in the immediate picture, all attention is on the trade deadline, suddenly here on Monday. Reports suggest that the Twins are showing interest in frontline starting pitching, including a couple of ace-types from the AL West: Dylan Bundy of the Angels and old "friend" Lance Lynn of the Rangers. Interestingly, the White Sox have been tied to both those pitchers, as well as Cleveland's Mike Clevinger, who appears somewhat likely to move tomorrow. That would qualify as good news in a sense, as the Indians would be losing a key weapon for any potential postseason match-up, but of course, adding Clevinger to a Sox rotation already fronted by Lucas Giolito would make Minnesota's other chief division rival all the more dangerous. Whether or not they make a trade for a starting pitcher, the Twins will get some rotation help in the coming week with Michael Pineda's suspension reaching an end. He's scheduled to make his season debut on Tuesday against Dallas Keuchel and the White Sox. LOOKING AHEAD The Twins return home with their tails between their legs, but on the bright side, they are 12-3 at Target Field this year. They'll have their work cut out for them in the first half of the week. Coming off a dominant no-hitter in his last outing, Giolito will toe the rubber in Monday's series opener as Hill tries to build upon his solid results from the past week. Pineda's return on Tuesday will be key, both for Minnesota's chances of winning the series and their outlook for the rest of the season and playoffs. If the Clevinger-to-Chicago rumors come to fruition, we could very well be looking at a second matchup between Jose Berríos and Mr. Sunshine within a week's time on Wednesday. A four-game set against Detroit at Target Field next weekend (with the Tigers lining up as "home team" in Friday's nightcap) will offer the Twins a chance for some much-needed redemption. MONDAY, 8/31: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Lucas Giolito v. LHP Rich Hill TUESDAY, 9/1: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – LHP Dallas Keuchel v. RHP Michael Pineda WEDNESDAY, 9/2: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Reynaldo Lopez v. RHP Jose Berrios FRIDAY, 9/4 (G1): TIGERS @ TWINS – LHP Matthew Boyd v. RHP Randy Dobnak FRIDAY, 9/4 (G2): TIGERS @ TWINS – TBD v. LHP Tarik Skubal SATURDAY, 9/5: TIGERS @ TWINS – RHP Casey Mize v. RHP Kenta Maeda SUNDAY, 9/6: TIGERS @ TWINS – RHP Spencer Turnbull v. LHP Rich Hill Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 30 | MIN 3, CLE 2: Bullpen Bends, Does Not Break Game 31 | CLE 4, MIN 2: Cleveland Counterpunch Game 32 | CLE 6, MIN 3: Cleveland Gets To Romo, Takes Series Game 34 | DET 8, MIN 2 Game 35 | DET 4, MIN, 2 Game 36 | DET 3, MIN 2: This Is Not What You Want MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
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Week in Review: Riding the Roller Coaster
Nick Nelson replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Regarding the 40-man: I'm not totally positive, but I believe Nick Gordon is on the restricted list as he's been battling COVID. (For multiple months it sounds like, which is scary and concerning.) Regarding Arraez's knee: You're correct. He missed almost the entire 2017 season with a torn ACL. I dunno if that's at all related to what is going on now but it's something to keep in imnd.- 10 replies
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- miguel sano
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It was a wild week for the Minnesota Twins, filled with invigorating highs, painful lows, and injury woes. One starting pitcher flirted with a no-no, as others were more of a no-go. The offense showed more glimpses, driven mainly by the Sanó show. (Yes, this is a rhyming roller coaster.) By the end of the ride, the Twins found themselves in first place still, with a critical series in Cleveland on deck. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/17 through Sun, 8/23 *** Record Last Week: 5-2 (Overall: 19-10) Run Differential Last Week: +5 (Overall: +40) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (1.5 GA) Bomba Counter: 42 (Pace: 90) It was not a great week healthwise for the Twins. Rich Hill returned from his hiatus on Wednesday but looked sluggish, allowing four earned runs on four hits and two walks in just 2⅔ innings. Homer Bailey was moved to the 45-day Injured List, confirming that his return is nowhere near. Jake Odorizzi took a line drive off the ribs in Friday's loss, and later in the same game Zack Littell exited with elbow soreness. Both landed on IL, replaced by relievers Sean Poppen and Danny Coulombe. Late in Sunday's game, Tyler Clippard took a line drive off his pitching arm, and while initial imaging came back negative, Rocco Baldelli said of Clippard after the game, "I can’t imagine he’s going to be throwing a baseball anytime in the very near future." So it'd be no surprise to see another reinforcement called in. Given the offense's continued struggles to find a rhythm, losses in the lineup loom even larger than the litany of injuries plaguing the pitching staff. Luis Arráez started just two games as he continues to battle knee soreness, but the team has bigger concerns. After Wednesday's game, Byron Buxton and Mitch Garver both landed on the Injured List, subtracting two right-handed bats from a unit that has been oddly ineffective against southpaws. There are silver linings with these two key cogs going on the shelf. Buxton has reportedly been bothered for some time by his surgically repaired shoulder, not to mention the foot he sprained during Summer Camp. And while there's been no indication that Garver was hampered by the intercostal muscles that left him wincing after a swing in Wednesday's game ... it would make a lot of sense, given his inexplicably extreme lack of production. A spell of rest may well do them both some good. And their departures create opportunities for deserving players in Ryan Jeffers and LaMonte Wade Jr., who shuttled over from the alternate site in St. Paul. Jeffers was put quickly to work, appearing in all four games since his call-up and starting three of them. Wade Jr. got his first start of the season on Sunday and went 2-for-4 with a double. HIGHLIGHTS The week started with ageless wonder Nelson Cruz once again leaving us in awe, notching his second two-homer game of the season in 4-1 victory over Kansas City. It was merely an appetizer. The following night, Kenta Maeda was pure magic. Taking his dominant start with the Twins to new levels, Maeda carried a no-hitter into the ninth inning against Milwaukee before giving up a weakly-hit single to Eric Sogard and exiting with a career-high 115 pitches. Along the way, Maeda set a franchise record by striking out eight consecutive hitters. He finished with 12 strikeouts and 21 whiffs in eight-plus innings. In this absolute gem, Maeda posted a Game Score of 86, which stands as the highest by a Twins starter since Jose Berríos put up the same number on Opening Day of 2018, with a three-hit shutout against the Orioles. Ranking seventh among major-league starters in fWAR, Maeda has embodied the ace label thus far by any definition. But speaking of Berríos, it was nice to see the rotation's presumed frontman finally look the part on Thursday, breaking off six shutout innings with nine strikeouts and only one hit allowed against Milwaukee. This big step forward for Berríos, combined with the continued excellence of Maeda and consistent quality from Randy Dobnak, makes the rotation's setbacks a bit easier to stomach. With all that being said, the most encouraging development over the past week from my view is Miguel Sanó's explosion at the plate. Last time in this space we pointed to his improving plate discipline as a hugely positive sign, even if the production wasn't quite showing up yet. "As he starts making more contact, Sanó is going to do immense damage." Since then, Sanó has done DAMAGE. (Literally.) Starting all seven games over the past week, the first baseman went 12-for-26 (.462) with eight doubles, five RBIs, and an atom bomb in KC that might've actually left a dent in the wall of Kauffman Stadium's Hall of Fame Museum: He's crushing the meatballs and finally starting to make things happen with those offerings that aren't straight in his wheelhouse. It is almost as noteworthy to me that Sanó reached out and made solid contact on two pitches away and outside the zone in his first two ABs Sunday – resulting in a double and single – as his obliterating a mistake from Brady Singer on Saturday. To provide a sense of closure and cosmic balance, Cruz ended the week as he began it: homering off the Royals. This one, an eighth-inning solo shot off a 100-MPH fastball from Trevor Rosenthal, delivered crucial insurance in an eventual 5-4 victory. LOWLIGHTS The lineup as a whole is definitely starting to come on – they scored seven runs as many times last week (twice) as in the previous three weeks – but it's still been pretty choppy sailing for the bats. Ehire Adrianza, pushed into semi-regular duty with the all the attrition, hasn't risen to the occasion. He went 2-for-14 last week and is at .186/.271/.209 on the season. Newcomer Ildemaro Vargas has quickly established himself as a more intriguing option for the same role, so one wonders how secure Adrianza's roster spot will be as injured players begin returning the fold. Max Kepler went just 4-for-22 (.182) although he did draw six walks to keep the OBP pumping. He hasn't been bad by any means, but his power has conspicuously diminished; since homering his first two at-bats of the season, Kepler has a .379 slugging percentage. He's also 2-for-27 (.074) with a .272 OPS against lefties, so he's been a major contributor to the team-wide deficiency on this front. Seeing a big uptick in playing time with Buxton on the shelf, Jake Cave isn't bringing a lot of juice. He delivered an empty 5-for-18 with five singles last week, and is hitting .150/.227/.175 with one RBI in 44 PAs since a good opening weekend in Chicago. It's hard to see Cave finding much success with his utter lack of discipline at the plate – he struck out six times with no walks last week, and has a 20-to-2 ratio on the season. In this regard, Wade Jr. offers a big upgrade, so I'll be curious to see whether the balance of playing time shifts in the days ahead. Like the offense, the pitching staff experienced some rough patches to go along with the shining moments. Taylor Rogers swiftly sucked the energy out of Maeda's gem on Tuesday, coughing up three runs (one charged to Maeda) while blowing the save and forcing extra innings. Since opening his season with four scoreless appearances, Rogers has allowed six earned runs on 13 hits in 6⅓ innings, blowing two of five save chances and flirting with disaster in Sunday's successful conversion. As I wrote a few days ago, the left-hander had developed a reputation as one of the most reliable high-leverage relievers in baseball, but actually has a negative Win Probability Added since last year's All-Star break. This begs the question: Where should he sit in the current bullpen pecking order? Almost certainly not at the top. On the other end of the bullpen leverage spectrum, exploitable soft spots have begun to surface. Lewis Thorpe punched his ticket off the roster on Wednesday with a brutal outing: 4 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 3 K, 2 HR. He has looked rough basically from the jump this season. So has Littell, who inflated his ERA to 9.95 while allowing another home run on Thursday before landing on IL with elbow inflammation. With a key reliever still sidelined in Cody Stashak, and alternate-siters like Poppen and Coulombe now occupying spots, the bullpen will be pressed to keep getting the job done as the grind of a 21-games-in-20-days stretch marches on. Ten straight days of games still remain in the gauntlet, with six coming against Minnesota's top challengers in the AL Central. TRENDING STORYLINE The trade deadline is now just a week away, coming up on Monday the 31st. The Hot Stove started to heat up over the weekend with Philadelphia pulling the trigger on a deal to acquire Red Sox closer Brandon Workman. Will the Twins be active in these next eight days as they set themselves up for the stretch run and postseason? It seems unlikely that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will give up any big-ticket prospects for a rented difference-maker in this abbreviated season. A playoff berth is all but assured, and it's clear that the Twins' best hope for a high-impact infusion is simply getting their own banged-up players back at full capacity. With that said, it wouldn't surprise me to see a lower-level or move or two as the team looks to navigate the final month at diminished strength. The move to acquire Vargas has already paid dividends, with the utility infielder playing a fairly significant role since coming from Arizona. Another pickup like that might make sense, depending on how things unfold over the next week. Of course, on the day of the trade deadline, Michael Pineda is eligible to return from his suspension, which will factor into the rotation's needs. LOOKING AHEAD The Twins will open this coming week with a monumental series against the Indians, representing the only visit to Cleveland this season. It's a key opportunity for Terry Francona's club, trailing Minnesota by just a game and a half in the standings. Shane Bieber looms in Game 2. From there, the Twins will head to Detroit to FINALLY see the division's weakest team. After facing them zero times in the first 32 games, Minnesota will get Ron Gardenhire and the Tigers 10 times in the final 28, accounting for roughly one-third of their remaining schedule. Theoretically this should be a very beneficial thing, but it requires capitalizing on the opportunity. The Twins will have their first chance in next weekend's four-game set. MONDAY, 8/24: TWINS @ INDIANS – RHP Kenta Maeda v. RHP Aaron Civale TUESDAY, 8/25: TWINS @ INDIANS – LHP Rich Hill v. RHP Shane Bieber WEDNESDAY, 8/26: TWINS @ INDIANS – RHP Jose Berrios v. RHP Adam Plutko THURSDAY, 8/27: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Randy Dobnak v. LHP Matthew Boyd FRIDAY, 8/28: TWINS @ TIGERS – TBD v. LHP Tarik Skubal SATURDAY, 8/29: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Kenta Maeda v. RHP Casey Mize SUNDAY, 8/30: TWINS @ TIGERS – LHP Rich Hill v. RHP Spencer Turnbull Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 23 | MIN 4, KCR 1: Nelson Cruz Continues to Defy LogicGame 24 | MIN 4, MIL 3: Kenta Maeda Carries No-No Into 9th Inning; Twins Win In ExtrasGame 25 | MIL 9, MIN 3: Hill Follows Maeda's Gem With a ClunkerGame 26 | MIN 7, MIL 1: It's a Blessed Jose Berríos Day!Game 27 | KC 7, MIN 2: Royal PainGame 28 | MIN 7, KC 2: Rosario, Sano Power Twins Win in KCGame 29 | MIN 5, KC 4 : Bullpen Steps Up AgainMORE FROM TWINS DAILY— Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
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Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/17 through Sun, 8/23 *** Record Last Week: 5-2 (Overall: 19-10) Run Differential Last Week: +5 (Overall: +40) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (1.5 GA) Bomba Counter: 42 (Pace: 90) It was not a great week healthwise for the Twins. Rich Hill returned from his hiatus on Wednesday but looked sluggish, allowing four earned runs on four hits and two walks in just 2⅔ innings. Homer Bailey was moved to the 45-day Injured List, confirming that his return is nowhere near. Jake Odorizzi took a line drive off the ribs in Friday's loss, and later in the same game Zack Littell exited with elbow soreness. Both landed on IL, replaced by relievers Sean Poppen and Danny Coulombe. Late in Sunday's game, Tyler Clippard took a line drive off his pitching arm, and while initial imaging came back negative, Rocco Baldelli said of Clippard after the game, "I can’t imagine he’s going to be throwing a baseball anytime in the very near future." So it'd be no surprise to see another reinforcement called in. Given the offense's continued struggles to find a rhythm, losses in the lineup loom even larger than the litany of injuries plaguing the pitching staff. Luis Arráez started just two games as he continues to battle knee soreness, but the team has bigger concerns. After Wednesday's game, Byron Buxton and Mitch Garver both landed on the Injured List, subtracting two right-handed bats from a unit that has been oddly ineffective against southpaws. There are silver linings with these two key cogs going on the shelf. Buxton has reportedly been bothered for some time by his surgically repaired shoulder, not to mention the foot he sprained during Summer Camp. And while there's been no indication that Garver was hampered by the intercostal muscles that left him wincing after a swing in Wednesday's game ... it would make a lot of sense, given his inexplicably extreme lack of production. A spell of rest may well do them both some good. And their departures create opportunities for deserving players in Ryan Jeffers and LaMonte Wade Jr., who shuttled over from the alternate site in St. Paul. Jeffers was put quickly to work, appearing in all four games since his call-up and starting three of them. Wade Jr. got his first start of the season on Sunday and went 2-for-4 with a double. HIGHLIGHTS The week started with ageless wonder Nelson Cruz once again leaving us in awe, notching his second two-homer game of the season in 4-1 victory over Kansas City. It was merely an appetizer. The following night, Kenta Maeda was pure magic. Taking his dominant start with the Twins to new levels, Maeda carried a no-hitter into the ninth inning against Milwaukee before giving up a weakly-hit single to Eric Sogard and exiting with a career-high 115 pitches. Along the way, Maeda set a franchise record by striking out eight consecutive hitters. He finished with 12 strikeouts and 21 whiffs in eight-plus innings. In this absolute gem, Maeda posted a Game Score of 86, which stands as the highest by a Twins starter since Jose Berríos put up the same number on Opening Day of 2018, with a three-hit shutout against the Orioles. Ranking seventh among major-league starters in fWAR, Maeda has embodied the ace label thus far by any definition. But speaking of Berríos, it was nice to see the rotation's presumed frontman finally look the part on Thursday, breaking off six shutout innings with nine strikeouts and only one hit allowed against Milwaukee. This big step forward for Berríos, combined with the continued excellence of Maeda and consistent quality from Randy Dobnak, makes the rotation's setbacks a bit easier to stomach. With all that being said, the most encouraging development over the past week from my view is Miguel Sanó's explosion at the plate. Last time in this space we pointed to his improving plate discipline as a hugely positive sign, even if the production wasn't quite showing up yet. "As he starts making more contact, Sanó is going to do immense damage." Since then, Sanó has done DAMAGE. (Literally.) Starting all seven games over the past week, the first baseman went 12-for-26 (.462) with eight doubles, five RBIs, and an atom bomb in KC that might've actually left a dent in the wall of Kauffman Stadium's Hall of Fame Museum: https://twitter.com/Twins/status/1297534058616905728 https://twitter.com/CoryProvus/status/1297331194808459264 At 115.8 MPH, it was the hardest hit ball of Sanó's career, the second-hardest hit home run by a Twins player in the Statcast era (c. 2015), and the highest exit velocity posted by a Twins hitter this year. Sanó dominates that list: https://twitter.com/NickNelsonMN/status/1297330079861743616 He's crushing the meatballs and finally starting to make things happen with those offerings that aren't straight in his wheelhouse. It is almost as noteworthy to me that Sanó reached out and made solid contact on two pitches away and outside the zone in his first two ABs Sunday – resulting in a double and single – as his obliterating a mistake from Brady Singer on Saturday. To provide a sense of closure and cosmic balance, Cruz ended the week as he began it: homering off the Royals. This one, an eighth-inning solo shot off a 100-MPH fastball from Trevor Rosenthal, delivered crucial insurance in an eventual 5-4 victory. LOWLIGHTS The lineup as a whole is definitely starting to come on – they scored seven runs as many times last week (twice) as in the previous three weeks – but it's still been pretty choppy sailing for the bats. Ehire Adrianza, pushed into semi-regular duty with the all the attrition, hasn't risen to the occasion. He went 2-for-14 last week and is at .186/.271/.209 on the season. Newcomer Ildemaro Vargas has quickly established himself as a more intriguing option for the same role, so one wonders how secure Adrianza's roster spot will be as injured players begin returning the fold. Max Kepler went just 4-for-22 (.182) although he did draw six walks to keep the OBP pumping. He hasn't been bad by any means, but his power has conspicuously diminished; since homering his first two at-bats of the season, Kepler has a .379 slugging percentage. He's also 2-for-27 (.074) with a .272 OPS against lefties, so he's been a major contributor to the team-wide deficiency on this front. Seeing a big uptick in playing time with Buxton on the shelf, Jake Cave isn't bringing a lot of juice. He delivered an empty 5-for-18 with five singles last week, and is hitting .150/.227/.175 with one RBI in 44 PAs since a good opening weekend in Chicago. It's hard to see Cave finding much success with his utter lack of discipline at the plate – he struck out six times with no walks last week, and has a 20-to-2 ratio on the season. In this regard, Wade Jr. offers a big upgrade, so I'll be curious to see whether the balance of playing time shifts in the days ahead. Like the offense, the pitching staff experienced some rough patches to go along with the shining moments. Taylor Rogers swiftly sucked the energy out of Maeda's gem on Tuesday, coughing up three runs (one charged to Maeda) while blowing the save and forcing extra innings. Since opening his season with four scoreless appearances, Rogers has allowed six earned runs on 13 hits in 6⅓ innings, blowing two of five save chances and flirting with disaster in Sunday's successful conversion. As I wrote a few days ago, the left-hander had developed a reputation as one of the most reliable high-leverage relievers in baseball, but actually has a negative Win Probability Added since last year's All-Star break. This begs the question: Where should he sit in the current bullpen pecking order? Almost certainly not at the top. On the other end of the bullpen leverage spectrum, exploitable soft spots have begun to surface. Lewis Thorpe punched his ticket off the roster on Wednesday with a brutal outing: 4 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 3 K, 2 HR. He has looked rough basically from the jump this season. So has Littell, who inflated his ERA to 9.95 while allowing another home run on Thursday before landing on IL with elbow inflammation. With a key reliever still sidelined in Cody Stashak, and alternate-siters like Poppen and Coulombe now occupying spots, the bullpen will be pressed to keep getting the job done as the grind of a 21-games-in-20-days stretch marches on. Ten straight days of games still remain in the gauntlet, with six coming against Minnesota's top challengers in the AL Central. TRENDING STORYLINE The trade deadline is now just a week away, coming up on Monday the 31st. The Hot Stove started to heat up over the weekend with Philadelphia pulling the trigger on a deal to acquire Red Sox closer Brandon Workman. Will the Twins be active in these next eight days as they set themselves up for the stretch run and postseason? It seems unlikely that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will give up any big-ticket prospects for a rented difference-maker in this abbreviated season. A playoff berth is all but assured, and it's clear that the Twins' best hope for a high-impact infusion is simply getting their own banged-up players back at full capacity. With that said, it wouldn't surprise me to see a lower-level or move or two as the team looks to navigate the final month at diminished strength. The move to acquire Vargas has already paid dividends, with the utility infielder playing a fairly significant role since coming from Arizona. Another pickup like that might make sense, depending on how things unfold over the next week. Of course, on the day of the trade deadline, Michael Pineda is eligible to return from his suspension, which will factor into the rotation's needs. LOOKING AHEAD The Twins will open this coming week with a monumental series against the Indians, representing the only visit to Cleveland this season. It's a key opportunity for Terry Francona's club, trailing Minnesota by just a game and a half in the standings. Shane Bieber looms in Game 2. From there, the Twins will head to Detroit to FINALLY see the division's weakest team. After facing them zero times in the first 32 games, Minnesota will get Ron Gardenhire and the Tigers 10 times in the final 28, accounting for roughly one-third of their remaining schedule. Theoretically this should be a very beneficial thing, but it requires capitalizing on the opportunity. The Twins will have their first chance in next weekend's four-game set. MONDAY, 8/24: TWINS @ INDIANS – RHP Kenta Maeda v. RHP Aaron Civale TUESDAY, 8/25: TWINS @ INDIANS – LHP Rich Hill v. RHP Shane Bieber WEDNESDAY, 8/26: TWINS @ INDIANS – RHP Jose Berrios v. RHP Adam Plutko THURSDAY, 8/27: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Randy Dobnak v. LHP Matthew Boyd FRIDAY, 8/28: TWINS @ TIGERS – TBD v. LHP Tarik Skubal SATURDAY, 8/29: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Kenta Maeda v. RHP Casey Mize SUNDAY, 8/30: TWINS @ TIGERS – LHP Rich Hill v. RHP Spencer Turnbull Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 23 | MIN 4, KCR 1: Nelson Cruz Continues to Defy Logic Game 24 | MIN 4, MIL 3: Kenta Maeda Carries No-No Into 9th Inning; Twins Win In Extras Game 25 | MIL 9, MIN 3: Hill Follows Maeda's Gem With a Clunker Game 26 | MIN 7, MIL 1: It's a Blessed Jose Berríos Day! Game 27 | KC 7, MIN 2: Royal Pain Game 28 | MIN 7, KC 2: Rosario, Sano Power Twins Win in KC Game 29 | MIN 5, KC 4 : Bullpen Steps Up Again MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
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On Opening Day last year, Jose Berríos pitched 7 2/3 shutout innings against Cleveland before giving way to Taylor Rogers, who notched the final four outs in perfect fashion to slam the door on a 2-0 victory. It was a fitting start in another season where Berríos would be the rotation's frontman and Rogers would anchor the bullpen. This year has been a very different story for the two. What gives?When the All-Star Game rolled around last summer, Berríos was there representing the Twins, thanks to his 3.00 ERA and 1.11 WHIP through 18 starts. The closer Rogers easily could have joined Minnesota's No. 1 starter on the All-Star roster with his 1.82 ERA and 2.84 Win Probability Added, which ranked fifth among MLB relievers. Since the 2019 All-Star break, Berríos has a 4.93 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 19 starts. Rogers has a 3.96 ERA with six homers allowed and a negative WPA (-0.18) in 38 2/3 innings. It's been strange and saddening to watch these former stalwarts stall out and show their warts. Both are great stories who've earned their way into the hearts of Twins fans – Berríos a scrappy spark plug known for his heart and relentless work ethic, Rogers a washed-out starter who reinvented himself as an elite bullpen arm. They were rightfully viewed coming into this season as the entrenched leaders on a staff poised for championship contention, but both have come up noticeably short during the first month of action. Whatever is afflicting these hurlers, the symptoms are similar. They're getting hit, hard. A look at their batted-ball profiles shows a clear shift away from soft/medium contact and toward harder contact. Berríos First Half 2019 – Soft: 21.0% | Medium: 43.7% | Hard: 35.3% Since Then – Soft: 15.4% | Medium: 44.2% | Hard: 40.4% Rogers First Half 2019 – Soft: 18.4% | Medium: 52.0% | Hard; 29.6% Since Then – Soft: 22.0% | Medium: 43.0% | Hard: 35.0% Last year, batters barreled up 6.5% of offering from Berríos, this year it's up to 12.3%. Rogers is up from 6.4% to 11.1%. What is at the root of these struggles? In neither case has there been a significant drop-off in velocity or stuff. Quite the opposite in Berríos' case; he's up a couple ticks of MPH across the board (perhaps to his detriment). Physically, these guys both seem okay, and whatever issues they're going through look to be correctable. Rogers in particular has been overtly a victim of bad luck, paper-cut to death by bleeders and bloopers in a couple of his rough outings. His 2.29 FIP and 2.36 xFIP, compared to a 4.82 ERA, serve as evidence. I can't say I'm especially worried about the long-term outlook for either of these pitchers. They're 26 and 29 years old, both healthy. The performance dips are ultimately covering small samples in contrast to their impressive bodies of work in years preceding, and neither has lost the ability to reach the mid-90s or miss bats. The real takeaway for me here is that even with the incumbent ringleaders on the Twins' pitching staff this year both dragging down rather than lifting up their respective units, this team is still shutting down opposing offenses consistently. Entering play Wednesday, Minnesota ranked second in the AL, behind Cleveland, in ERA and runs allowed. That speaks to the admirable job this front office has done in proactively adding talent to supplement Berríos and Rogers, as well as the coaching staff in developing pieces around him. The emergence of Randy Dobnak and Tyler Duffey during the same period as those two have slid, for instance, has provided a stark counterbalance – not to mention the additions of Kenta Maeda and Sergio Romo. The Twins now have a variety of "ace" candidates for both the rotation and bullpen, relieving pressure on Berríos and Rogers while also allowing the Twins to be patient as the duo seeks to find their grooves once again. With that said, it'd sure be nice to see the lapsed leaders of this pitching staff could emphatically reclaim their titles, and soon. I miss watching them dominate, and I know I'm not alone. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
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When the All-Star Game rolled around last summer, Berríos was there representing the Twins, thanks to his 3.00 ERA and 1.11 WHIP through 18 starts. The closer Rogers easily could have joined Minnesota's No. 1 starter on the All-Star roster with his 1.82 ERA and 2.84 Win Probability Added, which ranked fifth among MLB relievers. Since the 2019 All-Star break, Berríos has a 4.93 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 19 starts. Rogers has a 3.96 ERA with six homers allowed and a negative WPA (-0.18) in 38 2/3 innings. It's been strange and saddening to watch these former stalwarts stall out and show their warts. Both are great stories who've earned their way into the hearts of Twins fans – Berríos a scrappy spark plug known for his heart and relentless work ethic, Rogers a washed-out starter who reinvented himself as an elite bullpen arm. They were rightfully viewed coming into this season as the entrenched leaders on a staff poised for championship contention, but both have come up noticeably short during the first month of action. Whatever is afflicting these hurlers, the symptoms are similar. They're getting hit, hard. A look at their batted-ball profiles shows a clear shift away from soft/medium contact and toward harder contact. Berríos First Half 2019 – Soft: 21.0% | Medium: 43.7% | Hard: 35.3% Since Then – Soft: 15.4% | Medium: 44.2% | Hard: 40.4% Rogers First Half 2019 – Soft: 18.4% | Medium: 52.0% | Hard; 29.6% Since Then – Soft: 22.0% | Medium: 43.0% | Hard: 35.0% Last year, batters barreled up 6.5% of offering from Berríos, this year it's up to 12.3%. Rogers is up from 6.4% to 11.1%. What is at the root of these struggles? In neither case has there been a significant drop-off in velocity or stuff. Quite the opposite in Berríos' case; he's up a couple ticks of MPH across the board (perhaps to his detriment). Physically, these guys both seem okay, and whatever issues they're going through look to be correctable. Rogers in particular has been overtly a victim of bad luck, paper-cut to death by bleeders and bloopers in a couple of his rough outings. His 2.29 FIP and 2.36 xFIP, compared to a 4.82 ERA, serve as evidence. I can't say I'm especially worried about the long-term outlook for either of these pitchers. They're 26 and 29 years old, both healthy. The performance dips are ultimately covering small samples in contrast to their impressive bodies of work in years preceding, and neither has lost the ability to reach the mid-90s or miss bats. The real takeaway for me here is that even with the incumbent ringleaders on the Twins' pitching staff this year both dragging down rather than lifting up their respective units, this team is still shutting down opposing offenses consistently. Entering play Wednesday, Minnesota ranked second in the AL, behind Cleveland, in ERA and runs allowed. That speaks to the admirable job this front office has done in proactively adding talent to supplement Berríos and Rogers, as well as the coaching staff in developing pieces around him. The emergence of Randy Dobnak and Tyler Duffey during the same period as those two have slid, for instance, has provided a stark counterbalance – not to mention the additions of Kenta Maeda and Sergio Romo. The Twins now have a variety of "ace" candidates for both the rotation and bullpen, relieving pressure on Berríos and Rogers while also allowing the Twins to be patient as the duo seeks to find their grooves once again. With that said, it'd sure be nice to see the lapsed leaders of this pitching staff could emphatically reclaim their titles, and soon. I miss watching them dominate, and I know I'm not alone. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
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No denying that's been the case thus far. Last year Sano batted .299 and slugged .729 against fastballs, with a 26.7% whiff rate. This year his whiff rate on FBs is up to 46.3%. So he has either fundamentally lost the ability to hit them at age 27 for some reason, or his timing is off and he's still catching up because he had a shortened training camp. Which do you think is more likely?
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