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  1. The Twins tried to trade him last winter and got no bites. He has minimal trade value because other teams can see all the numbers and indicators I've shared above, and no one wants to give up prospects for the right to pay $8M for that.
  2. This is not a reaction to yesterday's game, or the last week, which is why much broader statistics were used to make the case that Rosario has been a sub par contributor dating back to last year. And no, if Kepler would've done the same the article would not have been published since, A: Kepler is under contract for several years, not a non-tender candidate in the offseason; and B: Kepler was arguably the team's most valuable player last year, Rosario probably not in the top ten. For your talk about "cherry-picking categories" (I literally shared his entire Statcast profile, which is almost all below average, and fWAR which is an all-consuming performance metric) you sure seem to be zeroing in on non-existent argument here and ignoring the one that was actually made. This ain't about the "eye test." Look at the numbers. They speak for themselves.
  3. It's been clear for some time that Eddie Rosario's days with the Twins are numbered, as a result of several converging factors: top prospects on the rise, impending free agency, and – most significantly – his own declining performance. The latter of these issues is becoming so unignorable it should be accelerating his exit timeline. The Twins can start making preparations now.His gaudy HR and RBI numbers on a historically explosive offense last year obscured the reality: he was a mediocre player showing some seriously diminished skills. Rosario's .300 on-base percentage ranked as the eight-lowest among MLB hitters and his defense rated near the bottom of all outfielders. Among 135 qualified big-league position players last year, Rosario ranked 114th in fWAR. This was a big year for the left fielder, who knew he needed to turn around his declining performance trend and build his case for free agency. Before the season he announced his intentions to address weaknesses in the statistical categories that modern front offices care about. "Defense, walks, OPS, those are the numbers in the game right now that are bad for me. OK. I want to try to change that. That's it," he said. To his credit, Rosario has made definitive improvements to his plate patience. He's chasing out of the zone less, whiffing less, and has more than doubled his paltry 3.7% BB rate from a year ago. Unfortunately, this hasn't led to an uptick in overall production – quite the contrary, in fact. His OPS is down 70 points, and his defense rates as poorly as ever. The notion that last year's drop-off owed to an ankle injury hasn't been substantiated (unless the ankle is still bothering him, which is possible but hardly reaffirming). He's a below-average runner and Statcast's Outs Above Average metric places him in the 5th percentile among all fielders. Download attachment: rosariostatcast97.png His range is awful and the strong arm doesn't come close to making up for it. It all adds up to this: Among 158 qualified big league position players this year, Rosario ranks 122nd in fWAR. On top of this, he continues to be a maddeningly undisciplined and reckless player on the field; on Sunday he blatantly blew through a stop sign at third, getting thrown out easily to stifle a big rally, and then later watched a caromed ball sit in front of him in left field as runners circled the bases because he (wrongly) assumed it was a ground rule double. On Monday he ran into another out on the bases, attempting to stretch a double into a triple and getting thrown out by a mile. He's doing all this for a prorated salary of $7.75 million this year, and figures to command a similar amount in 2021, his final year of arbitration. How do you justify that expense with multiple top prospects waiting in the wings behind him? You don't. Eddie is on his way out. So why keep feeding him everyday playing time when you could be prepping those future fixtures who do not have the benefit of playing minor-league games this year? To an extent, this becomes a moot point with Max Kepler sidelined, but if he returns – and even up until then – it would behoove the Twins to start mixing in Rosario's replacements to both get them familiar and, frankly, improve the production from left field. A bit of exposure to an intense September stretch run atmosphere in the majors could benefit Alex Kirilloff or Trevor Larnach greatly, if they are expected to be a big part of Minnesota's championship plans for 2021. Brent Rooker is of course already here, and demonstrating that it's possible to acclimate quickly from the alternate site. I get that Rosario is a streaky player. It's entirely possible he'll get on a roll and validate his consistent nods at the heart of the batting order. But it's also very possible he won't. There's only so much time left to turn around his lackluster performance, and many underlying signs suggest that Rosario's decline is more attributable to diminishing athleticism than bad luck or the standard ebbs and flows of baseball. The Rosie ride has been a wild one over these past six years, filled with plenty of thrills and frustrations. Now, as that ride reaches an end, it's time for the Twins to prep themselves for the future in left field. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
  4. His gaudy HR and RBI numbers on a historically explosive offense last year obscured the reality: he was a mediocre player showing some seriously diminished skills. Rosario's .300 on-base percentage ranked as the eight-lowest among MLB hitters and his defense rated near the bottom of all outfielders. Among 135 qualified big-league position players last year, Rosario ranked 114th in fWAR. This was a big year for the left fielder, who knew he needed to turn around his declining performance trend and build his case for free agency. Before the season he announced his intentions to address weaknesses in the statistical categories that modern front offices care about. "Defense, walks, OPS, those are the numbers in the game right now that are bad for me. OK. I want to try to change that. That's it," he said. To his credit, Rosario has made definitive improvements to his plate patience. He's chasing out of the zone less, whiffing less, and has more than doubled his paltry 3.7% BB rate from a year ago. Unfortunately, this hasn't led to an uptick in overall production – quite the contrary, in fact. His OPS is down 70 points, and his defense rates as poorly as ever. The notion that last year's drop-off owed to an ankle injury hasn't been substantiated (unless the ankle is still bothering him, which is possible but hardly reaffirming). He's a below-average runner and Statcast's Outs Above Average metric places him in the 5th percentile among all fielders. His range is awful and the strong arm doesn't come close to making up for it. It all adds up to this: Among 158 qualified big league position players this year, Rosario ranks 122nd in fWAR. On top of this, he continues to be a maddeningly undisciplined and reckless player on the field; on Sunday he blatantly blew through a stop sign at third, getting thrown out easily to stifle a big rally, and then later watched a caromed ball sit in front of him in left field as runners circled the bases because he (wrongly) assumed it was a ground rule double. On Monday he ran into another out on the bases, attempting to stretch a double into a triple and getting thrown out by a mile. He's doing all this for a prorated salary of $7.75 million this year, and figures to command a similar amount in 2021, his final year of arbitration. How do you justify that expense with multiple top prospects waiting in the wings behind him? You don't. Eddie is on his way out. So why keep feeding him everyday playing time when you could be prepping those future fixtures who do not have the benefit of playing minor-league games this year? To an extent, this becomes a moot point with Max Kepler sidelined, but if he returns – and even up until then – it would behoove the Twins to start mixing in Rosario's replacements to both get them familiar and, frankly, improve the production from left field. A bit of exposure to an intense September stretch run atmosphere in the majors could benefit Alex Kirilloff or Trevor Larnach greatly, if they are expected to be a big part of Minnesota's championship plans for 2021. Brent Rooker is of course already here, and demonstrating that it's possible to acclimate quickly from the alternate site. I get that Rosario is a streaky player. It's entirely possible he'll get on a roll and validate his consistent nods at the heart of the batting order. But it's also very possible he won't. There's only so much time left to turn around his lackluster performance, and many underlying signs suggest that Rosario's decline is more attributable to diminishing athleticism than bad luck or the standard ebbs and flows of baseball. The Rosie ride has been a wild one over these past six years, filled with plenty of thrills and frustrations. Now, as that ride reaches an end, it's time for the Twins to prep themselves for the future in left field. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
  5. The Twins carried a five-game losing streak into the past week, and extended it to six with a brutal series-opening loss against the White Sox. From there, Minnesota managed a 180-degree turnaround, sparking a five-game winning streak to stay right in the thick of a very tight AL Central race. Let's break it down. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/31 through Sun, 9/6 *** Record Last Week: 5-2 (Overall: 25-17) Run Differential Last Week: +7 (Overall: +34) Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (1.5 GB) Bomba Counter: 56 (Pace: 80) It wouldn't be a week in the 2020 season if there weren't some significant injury news to report. This time around it was Max Kepler going down, placed on the Injured List with a left adductor strain. It marks the first time in his career Kepler has landed on the DL/IL. Keeping in mind what happened late last year, when the right fielder was hampered by a shoulder injury in September and rendered almost totally ineffective in the playoffs, it would make sense if the Twins take a very cautious approach and keep him sidelined for most of the month. Donaldson never looked quite right early in the season, seemingly hampered by the calf issue that eventually forced him into a month-long IL stint, but the version we're seeing now is bringing the rain. It's crystal-clear that nothing is more important to the Twins' chances of a deep postseason run than keeping Donaldson and Buxton healthy and effective. They'll need some help, though, and the past week brought plenty of promising signs on that front. Big Mike made a big impression in his return to the fold Tuesday, allowing two runs over six innings while racking up a whopping 16 whiffs on 81 pitches. Pineda was efficient and in control throughout, picking up right where he left off in 2019 and looking very much like a playoff starter. The same can be said, thankfully, for José Berríos, who seems to be distancing himself from some early-season struggles. The righty was masterful in Wednesday's win over the White Sox, tossing six innings of one-run ball with eight strikeouts. His last three starts have all come against relatively strong opponents (Milwaukee, Cleveland, Chicago) and Berríos has allowed only four earned runs in 17 ⅔ innings. Opponents are hitting .175 against him with one home run during that span. Toss in another shutdown performance from Randy Dobnak (five scoreless innings on Friday) plus the continued excellence of Kenta Maeda (eight strikeouts in a quality start Saturday), and the Twins are looking pretty strong on the rotation front. The bullpen is mostly holding up too (Sunday notwithstanding), thanks in large part to some unlikely heroes. Caleb Thielbar and Matt Wisler each had a pair of key appearances as they continue to prove themselves as critical low-key additions to the Twins bullpen. Thielbar picked up the win in Minnesota's slump-snapping victory against Chicago on Tuesday, with a scoreless seventh in relief of Pineda. Thielbar added two more shutout frames in the back end of Friday's doubleheader, lowering his ERA to 1.38 in 13 total innings. He has 17 strikeouts and four walks. Amazing. Wisler, meanwhile, has been phenomenal in the opener role – I praised him for it in last week's column – and now he's shown he can close too. He picked up the save with a scoreless ninth on Tuesday, and he too tossed two clean innings Friday. Wisler has a 0.96 ERA and 24-to-11 K/BB ratio in 18 ⅔ innings on the season. Opponents are hitting .125 against him and his all-powerful slider. Not enough can be said about what incredible offseason pickups these were by the front office, costing essentially nothing and delivering enormous returns. LOWLIGHTS Wisler and Thielbar continuing to excel has been all the more vital as other bullpen fixtures falter. The unit hit its low point of the season on Sunday when Trevor May, Tyler Duffey, Sergio Romo and Devin Smeltzer combined to cough up eight earned runs on 11 hits in four innings against an unspectacular Detroit offense. May has given up home runs in three of his last four appearances and his ERA has ballooned to 5.74. Taylor Rogers had another rough outing on Monday, although the three runs scored against him were all unearned due to Kepler's outfield drop. Opponents are hitting .391 against Rogers in his past 10 appearances. Regression is surely a factor for this bullpen, which was performing at an absurdly high level early on, but it doesn't help that relievers are constantly working in stressful, high-leverage situations thanks to an offense that continues to so rarely create separation. Coming in, the Twins were viewed as one of the league's best offensive teams not only because of their depth in the lineup, but also their depth beyond the lineup. Ehire Adrianza was coming off a career-best season with the bat, while Marwin Gonzalez is here largely because of the offensive ability he brings along with his defensive versatility. Neither one is doing anything at the plate, and it's a huge problem for this team. Adrianza was hitless in his past 12 plate appearances before doubling high off the right field wall in his first at-bat Sunday. His two hits in that game were his only ones of the week. For the season, he is batting .190, and is 1-for-18 with runners in scoring position. Gonzalez went 2-for-17 on the week, dropping his overall line to a miserable .218 /.301/.306. He inexplicably batted cleanup on Tuesday, despite being one of the weakest bats on the roster. Gonzalez hasn't collected an extra-base hit in two weeks while playing almost everyday. The Twins have little choice but to play both regularly right now, with Kepler injured, Arráez aching, and both Buxton and Donaldson being eased in. The inability of either Adrianza or Gonzalez to make anything happen at the plate is greatly suppressing the lineup and hurting the team. Download attachment: gleemanWPAtweet.png TRENDING STORYLINE The Twins called up Ryan Jeffers, and now Rooker. Is anyone else from the alternate site going to be joining the action here in the final month? If any other players are expected to possibly play a role in the postseason picture, the Twins will basically need to make that decision within the next week; in order to be eligible for the playoffs, players must be on the active roster by Tuesday, September 15th. Will we see additional young talents factor for the Twins in the remaining weeks? It's worth noting that pitching prospects Jordan Balazovic and Matt Canterino were added to the 60-man player pool last week, though it seems highly unlikely either would jump straight to the majors at this juncture. A bat seems more plausible, especially given the struggles of Minnesota's depth players, and the ongoing injury concerns in the outfield. LOOKING AHEAD It's going to be a weird week. On Monday, the Twins wrap up their four-day, five-game home series against Detroit. Then, they travel to St. Louis for two games in one day on Tuesday. This is followed by two consecutive days off, and then a massive home series against Cleveland over the weekend. MONDAY, 9/7: TIGERS @ TWINS – RHP Michael Fulmer v. RHP Michael Pineda TUESDAY, 9/8 (1): TWINS @ CARDINALS – Jose Berrios v. TBD TUESDAY, 9/8 (2): TWINS @ CARDINALS – TBD v. TBD FRIDAY, 9/11: INDIANS @ TWINS – RHP Shane Bieber v. RHP Randy Dobnak SATURDAY, 9/12: INDIANS @ TWINS – RHP Zach Plesac v. RHP Kenta Maeda SUNDAY, 9/13: INDIANS @ TWINS – RHP Triston McKenzie v. RHP Rich Hill Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 36 | CWS 8, MIN 5: Drop KickGame 37 | MIN 3, CWS 2: Pineda, Buxton Shine in Return to RosterGame 38 | MIN 8, CWS 1: Berríos Dominates, Bats Bust OutGame 39 | MIN 2, DET 0Game 40 | MIN 3, DET 2Game 41 | MIN 4, DET 3: Fashionably LateGame 42 | DET 10, MIN 8: Bullpen Finally BreaksMORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
  6. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/31 through Sun, 9/6 *** Record Last Week: 5-2 (Overall: 25-17) Run Differential Last Week: +7 (Overall: +34) Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (1.5 GB) Bomba Counter: 56 (Pace: 80) It wouldn't be a week in the 2020 season if there weren't some significant injury news to report. This time around it was Max Kepler going down, placed on the Injured List with a left adductor strain. It marks the first time in his career Kepler has landed on the DL/IL. Keeping in mind what happened late last year, when the right fielder was hampered by a shoulder injury in September and rendered almost totally ineffective in the playoffs, it would make sense if the Twins take a very cautious approach and keep him sidelined for most of the month. Joining Kepler on IL was Alex Avila, who is dealing with lower back soreness (perhaps helping explain his 1-for-17 stretch at the plate leading up the move). He was replaced by Willians Astudillo, who brings some energy and hitting ability but is a major downgrade defensively. Luis Arráez experienced a setback with his balky knee, limping out of Wednesday's game against Chicago, but it appears relatively minor as the Twins didn't put him on the shelf and he returned to the lineup on Sunday. This is just something the second baseman will be dealing with, and the Twins will be attempting to manage, the rest of the way. Fortunately, the past week's negatives were counterbalanced and then some by refreshingly positive news on the health front. Josh Donaldson and Byron Buxton made their highly anticipated returns and wasted no time impacting the club, helping turn around a dire cold spell. Michael Pineda debuted in triumphant fashion. Kepler going on IL also opened the door for Brent Rooker to get called up from St. Paul, giving the Twins a much-needed righty power bat infusion. He debuted on Friday, playing both ends of the doubleheader, and has made a fast impression with three hits and three RBIs in his first four games. Ahead, we'll discuss the contributions of returning stars, as well as some other positive developments in a big rebound week for the Twins. HIGHLIGHTS As the Twins skidded into the trade deadline last Monday, and then passed on the opportunity to bring in any help, our collective hopes were pinned on the returns of key sidelined players, who were hailed as saviors for a spiraling squad. They ... pretty much lived up to the billing. Buxton came blazing back onto the scene Tuesday, robbing a home run and driving in the winning run as Minnesota snapped its six-game losing streak with a 3-2 win. There really is a different energy and vibe to this team when Buxton is on the field, which helps explain why the dramatic difference in the Minnesota's record when he plays (79-33) and when he doesn't (47-45) dating back to the start of last year. His abilities to impact games defensively and punish the ball are obvious difference-makers, but what really strikes me is the speed element he brings this a team, which otherwise has very little (the Twins rank last in the majors in steals and attempts). Since returning, Buxton has already reached on two grounders that would've been fairly standard outs for almost any other hitter, and the second of those was a biggie. He puts pressure on the defense. He turns routine infield choppers into base hits. These are the kinds of things that can be game-changers for a slumbering offense as much as a monster home run. That said, we'll also take the monster home run. Donaldson delivered one of those in his second game back – an atom smash to straightaway center field – after coming through with a two-run double in his return on Wednesday. Like Buxton, he quickly made his presence known both on offense and defense. Donaldson never looked quite right early in the season, seemingly hampered by the calf issue that eventually forced him into a month-long IL stint, but the version we're seeing now is bringing the rain. It's crystal-clear that nothing is more important to the Twins' chances of a deep postseason run than keeping Donaldson and Buxton healthy and effective. They'll need some help, though, and the past week brought plenty of promising signs on that front. Big Mike made a big impression in his return to the fold Tuesday, allowing two runs over six innings while racking up a whopping 16 whiffs on 81 pitches. Pineda was efficient and in control throughout, picking up right where he left off in 2019 and looking very much like a playoff starter. The same can be said, thankfully, for José Berríos, who seems to be distancing himself from some early-season struggles. The righty was masterful in Wednesday's win over the White Sox, tossing six innings of one-run ball with eight strikeouts. His last three starts have all come against relatively strong opponents (Milwaukee, Cleveland, Chicago) and Berríos has allowed only four earned runs in 17 ⅔ innings. Opponents are hitting .175 against him with one home run during that span. Toss in another shutdown performance from Randy Dobnak (five scoreless innings on Friday) plus the continued excellence of Kenta Maeda (eight strikeouts in a quality start Saturday), and the Twins are looking pretty strong on the rotation front. The bullpen is mostly holding up too (Sunday notwithstanding), thanks in large part to some unlikely heroes. Caleb Thielbar and Matt Wisler each had a pair of key appearances as they continue to prove themselves as critical low-key additions to the Twins bullpen. Thielbar picked up the win in Minnesota's slump-snapping victory against Chicago on Tuesday, with a scoreless seventh in relief of Pineda. Thielbar added two more shutout frames in the back end of Friday's doubleheader, lowering his ERA to 1.38 in 13 total innings. He has 17 strikeouts and four walks. Amazing. Wisler, meanwhile, has been phenomenal in the opener role – I praised him for it in last week's column – and now he's shown he can close too. He picked up the save with a scoreless ninth on Tuesday, and he too tossed two clean innings Friday. Wisler has a 0.96 ERA and 24-to-11 K/BB ratio in 18 ⅔ innings on the season. Opponents are hitting .125 against him and his all-powerful slider. Not enough can be said about what incredible offseason pickups these were by the front office, costing essentially nothing and delivering enormous returns. LOWLIGHTS Wisler and Thielbar continuing to excel has been all the more vital as other bullpen fixtures falter. The unit hit its low point of the season on Sunday when Trevor May, Tyler Duffey, Sergio Romo and Devin Smeltzer combined to cough up eight earned runs on 11 hits in four innings against an unspectacular Detroit offense. May has given up home runs in three of his last four appearances and his ERA has ballooned to 5.74. Taylor Rogers had another rough outing on Monday, although the three runs scored against him were all unearned due to Kepler's outfield drop. Opponents are hitting .391 against Rogers in his past 10 appearances. Regression is surely a factor for this bullpen, which was performing at an absurdly high level early on, but it doesn't help that relievers are constantly working in stressful, high-leverage situations thanks to an offense that continues to so rarely create separation. Coming in, the Twins were viewed as one of the league's best offensive teams not only because of their depth in the lineup, but also their depth beyond the lineup. Ehire Adrianza was coming off a career-best season with the bat, while Marwin Gonzalez is here largely because of the offensive ability he brings along with his defensive versatility. Neither one is doing anything at the plate, and it's a huge problem for this team. Adrianza was hitless in his past 12 plate appearances before doubling high off the right field wall in his first at-bat Sunday. His two hits in that game were his only ones of the week. For the season, he is batting .190, and is 1-for-18 with runners in scoring position. Gonzalez went 2-for-17 on the week, dropping his overall line to a miserable .218 /.301/.306. He inexplicably batted cleanup on Tuesday, despite being one of the weakest bats on the roster. Gonzalez hasn't collected an extra-base hit in two weeks while playing almost everyday. The Twins have little choice but to play both regularly right now, with Kepler injured, Arráez aching, and both Buxton and Donaldson being eased in. The inability of either Adrianza or Gonzalez to make anything happen at the plate is greatly suppressing the lineup and hurting the team. TRENDING STORYLINE The Twins called up Ryan Jeffers, and now Rooker. Is anyone else from the alternate site going to be joining the action here in the final month? If any other players are expected to possibly play a role in the postseason picture, the Twins will basically need to make that decision within the next week; in order to be eligible for the playoffs, players must be on the active roster by Tuesday, September 15th. Will we see additional young talents factor for the Twins in the remaining weeks? It's worth noting that pitching prospects Jordan Balazovic and Matt Canterino were added to the 60-man player pool last week, though it seems highly unlikely either would jump straight to the majors at this juncture. A bat seems more plausible, especially given the struggles of Minnesota's depth players, and the ongoing injury concerns in the outfield. LOOKING AHEAD It's going to be a weird week. On Monday, the Twins wrap up their four-day, five-game home series against Detroit. Then, they travel to St. Louis for two games in one day on Tuesday. This is followed by two consecutive days off, and then a massive home series against Cleveland over the weekend. MONDAY, 9/7: TIGERS @ TWINS – RHP Michael Fulmer v. RHP Michael Pineda TUESDAY, 9/8 (1): TWINS @ CARDINALS – Jose Berrios v. TBD TUESDAY, 9/8 (2): TWINS @ CARDINALS – TBD v. TBD FRIDAY, 9/11: INDIANS @ TWINS – RHP Shane Bieber v. RHP Randy Dobnak SATURDAY, 9/12: INDIANS @ TWINS – RHP Zach Plesac v. RHP Kenta Maeda SUNDAY, 9/13: INDIANS @ TWINS – RHP Triston McKenzie v. RHP Rich Hill Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 36 | CWS 8, MIN 5: Drop Kick Game 37 | MIN 3, CWS 2: Pineda, Buxton Shine in Return to Roster Game 38 | MIN 8, CWS 1: Berríos Dominates, Bats Bust Out Game 39 | MIN 2, DET 0 Game 40 | MIN 3, DET 2 Game 41 | MIN 4, DET 3: Fashionably Late Game 42 | DET 10, MIN 8: Bullpen Finally Breaks MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
  7. The thing about the ball not being as juiced is that everyone's hitting the same balls. The Twins aren't just worse than they were last year -- they're vastly worse relative to the competition. I mean for cripes sakes the Royals and Tigers have been better offensive teams this year.
  8. For sure. I'd never claim to be a nitty-gritty nuts and bolts hitting analyst like Parker. This is a very high-level overview, sparked simply by my reaction to going over the Statcast charts for a number of hitters throughout the lineup and noticing this striking trend. It matches my eye-test, which has been telling me they are frequently making very weak contact in situations where last year they were keying in and crushing. To your point about the situational spots, I went through some Baseball Ref numbers and found that while the Twins are still very successful when ahead in the count, the biggest discrepancy is in even counts. Last year: .292/.299/.528 This year: .233/.244/.378 Is this meaningful? Who knows. The sample is obviously small. But it kinda jibes with my perception that a certain tentativeness is at play in situations where hitters seemed much more comfortable & authoritative last year.
  9. Last year, it seemed as though the Twins' philosophy at the plate could more or less be boiled down to a simple mantra: grip it and rip it. They were aggressive early in counts, they swung hard, and they punished opposing pitchers on a daily basis. I don't know if that philosophy has materially changed this year, but the numbers certainly suggest it has.Under the terminology of MLB's Statcast system, a "Barrel" is defined as "a well-struck ball where the combination of exit velocity and launch angle generally leads to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage." In other words, it is the highest quality of contact. In 2019, the Twins led all of baseball in Barrel % at 10.1%. In 2020, they rank 21st in baseball at 6.6%. They've dropped from third to 13th in Average Exit Velocity (AEV). What is causing this drop-off in detonations for the Bomba Squad? One might surmise it is the result of injuries forcing lesser players into the lineup, and that is certainly a partial factor, but hardly the driving force. The biggest problem is that many of Minnesota's key sluggers from a year ago are hitting the ball with minimal authority, seemingly because they are sacrificing power for contact. The prime example is Jorge Polanco. He's been one of the toughest hitters in the majors to strike out, ranking in the 97th percentile for both K-rate and whiff rate. But his Barrel % and AEV are both in the 7th percentile. His Hard Hit % is in the 5th. Download attachment: polancostatcast.png Last year, Polanco piled up 69 extra-base hits and slugged .485. This year he's at eight and .388. He has improved his zone coverage and is making more contact, but there's little evidence that he's benefiting from it. Next up: Max Kepler, who often accompanies Polanco at the top of the lineup. Kepler too has been tough to fan this year – he's in the 89th percentile for whiff rate and 72nd for K-rate. But he too has lost some punch. His Barrel % is below average (48th percentile) and his AEV (36th percentile) and Hard Hit % (30th percentile) are around the bottom third of all hitters. Last year he was solidly above-average in all three categories. Download attachment: keplerstatcast.png Even Eddie Rosario, who sometimes reflects the embodiment of a "grip it and rip it" approach, has really come to profile as more of a slap hitter. He's been very tough to strike out (87th percentile for K-rate) and doesn't have much swing-and-miss in his game (71st percentile for whiff rate) ... but every Statcast measure rates his quality of contact as low. He's 24th percentile in Barrel % and around the bottom third for AEV and Hard Hit %. His xwOBA, xBA, xSLG ... all well below average. Download attachment: rosariostatcast.png Finally it's worth mentioning Luis Arráez. His profile this year is more typical and expected, but it's worth calling out the stark contrast: 95th/99th percentiles for strikeouts and whiffs, 22nd/4th percentiles AEV/Hard Hit %. Download attachment: arraezstatcast.png Whereas Miguel Sanó and Nelson Cruz are both swinging out of their shoes, striking out frequently but plastering the ball upon contact, nearly every other Twins player falls starkly on the other side of the spectrum. The result, as we're seeing, is an offense that has not been particularly threatening or intimidating on whole. Many fans have wondered whether the change in hitting coaches may be a contributor to the team's offensive drop-off. The answer, based on these insights: maybe. James Rowson seemed to be a champion of the aggressive approach that spurred the lineup's success last year, but that's not to say Edgar Varela isn't. One way or another, several Twins hitters could benefit from taking a page from Cruz and Sanó – often the lineup's only productive players of late – and sacrificing some contact for power. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
  10. Under the terminology of MLB's Statcast system, a "Barrel" is defined as "a well-struck ball where the combination of exit velocity and launch angle generally leads to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage." In other words, it is the highest quality of contact. In 2019, the Twins led all of baseball in Barrel % at 10.1%. In 2020, they rank 21st in baseball at 6.6%. They've dropped from third to 13th in Average Exit Velocity (AEV). What is causing this drop-off in detonations for the Bomba Squad? One might surmise it is the result of injuries forcing lesser players into the lineup, and that is certainly a partial factor, but hardly the driving force. The biggest problem is that many of Minnesota's key sluggers from a year ago are hitting the ball with minimal authority, seemingly because they are sacrificing power for contact. The prime example is Jorge Polanco. He's been one of the toughest hitters in the majors to strike out, ranking in the 97th percentile for both K-rate and whiff rate. But his Barrel % and AEV are both in the 7th percentile. His Hard Hit % is in the 5th. Last year, Polanco piled up 69 extra-base hits and slugged .485. This year he's at eight and .388. He has improved his zone coverage and is making more contact, but there's little evidence that he's benefiting from it. Next up: Max Kepler, who often accompanies Polanco at the top of the lineup. Kepler too has been tough to fan this year – he's in the 89th percentile for whiff rate and 72nd for K-rate. But he too has lost some punch. His Barrel % is below average (48th percentile) and his AEV (36th percentile) and Hard Hit % (30th percentile) are around the bottom third of all hitters. Last year he was solidly above-average in all three categories. Even Eddie Rosario, who sometimes reflects the embodiment of a "grip it and rip it" approach, has really come to profile as more of a slap hitter. He's been very tough to strike out (87th percentile for K-rate) and doesn't have much swing-and-miss in his game (71st percentile for whiff rate) ... but every Statcast measure rates his quality of contact as low. He's 24th percentile in Barrel % and around the bottom third for AEV and Hard Hit %. His xwOBA, xBA, xSLG ... all well below average. Finally it's worth mentioning Luis Arráez. His profile this year is more typical and expected, but it's worth calling out the stark contrast: 95th/99th percentiles for strikeouts and whiffs, 22nd/4th percentiles AEV/Hard Hit %. Whereas Miguel Sanó and Nelson Cruz are both swinging out of their shoes, striking out frequently but plastering the ball upon contact, nearly every other Twins player falls starkly on the other side of the spectrum. The result, as we're seeing, is an offense that has not been particularly threatening or intimidating on whole. Many fans have wondered whether the change in hitting coaches may be a contributor to the team's offensive drop-off. The answer, based on these insights: maybe. James Rowson seemed to be a champion of the aggressive approach that spurred the lineup's success last year, but that's not to say Edgar Varela isn't. One way or another, several Twins hitters could benefit from taking a page from Cruz and Sanó – often the lineup's only productive players of late – and sacrificing some contact for power. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
  11. An ugly week on the road knocked the Minnesota Twins out of their customary perch atop the division while fueling concerns around the team's ability to rise to the occasion here in this abbreviated campaign. Let's sort it all out as the trade deadline bears down and a key series against first-place Chicago looms. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/24 through Sun, 8/30 *** Record Last Week: 1-5 (Overall: 20-15) Run Differential Last Week: -13 (Overall: +27) Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (1.5 GB) Bomba Counter: 47 (Pace: 81) This 2020 season has been shortened and repeatedly shaken by events taking place outside of the baseball world. Last week became another example, with the Twins joining several other major-league teams in choosing to postpone a game in protest of the nation's enduring social injustice issues. I think our Friday post from RandBalls Stu succinctly and powerfully summarized the significance and palpable takeaway behind a statement such as this. Interestingly, the White Sox have been tied to both those pitchers, as well as Cleveland's Mike Clevinger, who appears somewhat likely to move tomorrow. That would qualify as good news in a sense, as the Indians would be losing a key weapon for any potential postseason match-up, but of course, adding Clevinger to a Sox rotation already fronted by Lucas Giolito would make Minnesota's other chief division rival all the more dangerous. Whether or not they make a trade for a starting pitcher, the Twins will get some rotation help in the coming week with Michael Pineda's suspension reaching an end. He's scheduled to make his season debut on Tuesday against Dallas Keuchel and the White Sox. LOOKING AHEAD The Twins return home with their tails between their legs, but on the bright side, they are 12-3 at Target Field this year. They'll have their work cut out for them in the first half of the week. Coming off a dominant no-hitter in his last outing, Giolito will toe the rubber in Monday's series opener as Hill tries to build upon his solid results from the past week. Pineda's return on Tuesday will be key, both for Minnesota's chances of winning the series and their outlook for the rest of the season and playoffs. If the Clevinger-to-Chicago rumors come to fruition, we could very well be looking at a second matchup between Jose Berríos and Mr. Sunshine within a week's time on Wednesday. A four-game set against Detroit at Target Field next weekend (with the Tigers lining up as "home team" in Friday's nightcap) will offer the Twins a chance for some much-needed redemption. MONDAY, 8/31: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Lucas Giolito v. LHP Rich Hill TUESDAY, 9/1: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – LHP Dallas Keuchel v. RHP Michael Pineda WEDNESDAY, 9/2: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Reynaldo Lopez v. RHP Jose Berrios FRIDAY, 9/4 (G1): TIGERS @ TWINS – LHP Matthew Boyd v. RHP Randy Dobnak FRIDAY, 9/4 (G2): TIGERS @ TWINS – TBD v. LHP Tarik Skubal SATURDAY, 9/5: TIGERS @ TWINS – RHP Casey Mize v. RHP Kenta Maeda SUNDAY, 9/6: TIGERS @ TWINS – RHP Spencer Turnbull v. LHP Rich Hill Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 30 | MIN 3, CLE 2: Bullpen Bends, Does Not BreakGame 31 | CLE 4, MIN 2: Cleveland CounterpunchGame 32 | CLE 6, MIN 3: Cleveland Gets To Romo, Takes SeriesGame 34 | DET 8, MIN 2Game 35 | DET 4, MIN, 2Game 36 | DET 3, MIN 2: This Is Not What You WantMORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
  12. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/24 through Sun, 8/30 *** Record Last Week: 1-5 (Overall: 20-15) Run Differential Last Week: -13 (Overall: +27) Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (1.5 GB) Bomba Counter: 47 (Pace: 81) This 2020 season has been shortened and repeatedly shaken by events taking place outside of the baseball world. Last week became another example, with the Twins joining several other major-league teams in choosing to postpone a game in protest of the nation's enduring social injustice issues. I think our Friday post from RandBalls Stu succinctly and powerfully summarized the significance and palpable takeaway behind a statement such as this. It certainly wasn't the motivator, but taking Thursday night off in Detroit had the benefit of giving Minnesota's roster some rest in the middle of this grueling stretch of the schedule, and Friday's doubleheader rainout extended the break. Any extra bit of time off helps as the beleaguered Twins try to get healthy and move back toward full strength. In this case it sure seemed to help Max Kepler, who raised alarms when he exited Wednesday's game after fouling a ball of his foot. Not only was he back in the lineup for both games on Saturday, but he even started the first one in center. Unfortunately, while the respite may have been good for Kepler's health, it didn't seem to help the team at large as they put forth an utterly lackluster showing in Detroit, suffering an embarrassing sweep as their offense fell further into the pits of despair. The injury carousel kept spinning as Eddie Rosario was forced out of Saturday's nightcap, with his left ankle starting to bark. This is troubling as it's the same ankle that hampered him last season and – by his own admission – sapped his performance, especially on the defensive side. Rosario did come back to make a late pinch-hitting appearance on Sunday, which is somewhat relieving. In a bit of potentially positive news, there seems to be some optimism that Josh Donaldson is nearing a return, with Rocco Baldelli hinting that the third baseman could be activated during the team's upcoming homestand. To say the lineup could use his presence would be putting it very mildly. Let's run back the past week's developments, which weren't ALL bad. HIGHLIGHTS After starring in the previous week, Kenta Maeda got this past one off to a (short-lived) good start with five innings of one-run ball against the Indians, paving way for Minnesota's lone victory in Cleveland. The bullpen backed him up nicely in a 3-2 victory, with Caleb Thielbar, Trevor May, Sergio Romo and Taylor Rogers combining to allow one run over four innings. On Tuesday, Rich Hill backed up Maeda's strong start in the series opener, allowing one run over five innings himself. Hill looked rough in the first frame, missing his spots and giving up a bunch of hard contact, but then settled in to cruise through the next four, handing a 2-1 lead to the bullpen. It was a hugely encouraging rebound for the veteran following his rocky return from IL six days earlier. Outside of Maeda and Hill, the Twins' best starter over the past week was ... Matt Wisler? He served as opener once again in the back half of Saturday's doubleheader, and as usual he got the job done. It wasn't as clean as some of this past performances – he gave up three walks and a hit over 1 ⅔ innings – but Wisler once again kept the opponent off the board to set a bullpen game in the right direction. The offseason waiver pickup has been nothing short of sensational through the first half of his first season with the Twins. Through 16 ⅔ innings he has a 1.15 ERA and 19-to-10 K/BB ratio with just eight hits allowed. He has recorded more than three outs in every appearance since his first. In a bullpen that's had some ups and downs, and been asked to cover a whole lot of innings, Wisler's value can hardly be overstated. Minnesota's plan of fully ramping up his slider usage has paid off brilliantly. He's throwing the pitch 80% of the time and it's holding opponents to a .133 average and .200 slugging percentage, with a 37.8% whiff rate. In terms of both limiting contact, and limiting the loudness of that contact, he's elite. Nelson Cruz hit three more home runs and continues to be the sole source of consistent output on this offense. He finished the week tied for the MLB lead with 13 long balls and is having a special season at age 40. If only Cruz was getting any kind of support from those around him. LOWLIGHTS It's getting tougher and tougher to be patient with this lineup, which failed to score more than three runs in any of the past week's six games. Coming up fairly quiet against Cleveland and its world-class pitching staff is one thing, but the following flat effort over the weekend against Detroit was flat-out flabbergasting. The Twins' first game of the series, coming off two days rest with a heavily favorable pitching match-up, was perhaps their most vexing loss of the entire season thus far. Tigers started Matthew Boyd entered the game with an 0-4 record, 8.48 ERA and 1.74 WHIP. Opponents had slashed .317/.380/.610 with eight homers against the embattled left-hander. Seemingly a perfect opportunity for the Bomba Squad to get right. Instead, they simply helped Boyd get right as he mowed through their lineup three times, holding Minnesota to one earned run over six innings with six strikeouts, no walks, and four hits allowed. It was Boyd's best start this year and the worst performance yet from the Twins, who were dominated on both ends in an 8-2 laugher, getting outhit 16-to-4 over seven innings. The offense's continued inability to get going is growing into a bigger problem as the pitching staff starts to show some warts. Randy Dobnak's career-worst outing against Detroit sealed their fate in Saturday's series-opening blowout loss. In the nightcap, Tyler Duffey's first real hiccup of the season proved crippling as a two-run homer from Miguel Cabrera buried the Twins 4-2. On Sunday, Maeda had the gall to allow three runs over six innings, and that was of course enough to get tagged with a loss. Earlier in the week, on Tuesday, Jorge Alcala's spectacular rookie season hit a pothole when he coughed up three runs in the sixth inning, turning a 2-1 lead into a 4-2 loss. The following night it was Romo who turned into a pumpkin, yielding three runs to Cleveland in the eighth to shatter a tie. It's too soon to be gravely concerned about the Twins bullpen, but seeing regression catch up there while the underperforming offense fails to balance out in the opposite direction is taking a toll. Among the culprits: The Twins are getting nothing from the catcher position, which was such a huge strength in 2019. The past week saw Alex Avila go 1-for-9 with six strikeouts. Ryan Jeffers is still looking for his first walk or extra-base hit as a big-leaguer. Pressed into everyday duty, Marwin Gonzalez is not delivering. He went 3-for-19 with three singles and eight strikeouts in six games, always while batting near the heart of the order. Rosario was 3-for-17, with a double representing his only XBH. After notching six home runs in his first 17 games, he's gone deep once in 17 games since. Luis Arráez finished 4-for-18 with one double, zero walks, one run scored, and one RBI. It's the same story here as with many others: no patience or power to support an empty (and altogether underwhelming) batting average. Jorge Polanco went 5-for-20, and sports a sub-par .702 OPS even after homering on Sunday. His inability to square the ball up and drive it with any kind of authority is almost completely negating the value of his ability to put it in play and avoid strikeouts: I haven't yet even mentioned any of the fringy backups being funneled playing time as a result of regulars being sidelined. And yes, it's true that Jake Cave (3-for-12), LaMonte Wade Jr. (1-for-10), Ildemaro Vargas (0-for-4) and Ehire Adrianza (2-for-7) have failed to help the cause much. But focusing on them obscures the ultimate reality, which is that this offense won't simply be fixed by Donaldson, Byron Buxton or Mitch Garver re-entering the fold. The Twins need the guys in those bullets above to snap out of their funks, because right now this just isn't a very impressive team. Since opening the season 10-2, the Twins have gone 10-13. They are 5-8 against the Royals and Tigers. Conversely, the White Sox – who leapfrogged Minnesota in the standings over the weekend – are 11-2 against those clubs. If you can't take advantage of the Central's soft underbelly, you're not going to win the division. Plain and simple. So far the Twins have come up woefully short in this department. TRENDING STORYLINE Donaldson's possible return will certainly be a key narrative in the coming days, but in the immediate picture, all attention is on the trade deadline, suddenly here on Monday. Reports suggest that the Twins are showing interest in frontline starting pitching, including a couple of ace-types from the AL West: Dylan Bundy of the Angels and old "friend" Lance Lynn of the Rangers. Interestingly, the White Sox have been tied to both those pitchers, as well as Cleveland's Mike Clevinger, who appears somewhat likely to move tomorrow. That would qualify as good news in a sense, as the Indians would be losing a key weapon for any potential postseason match-up, but of course, adding Clevinger to a Sox rotation already fronted by Lucas Giolito would make Minnesota's other chief division rival all the more dangerous. Whether or not they make a trade for a starting pitcher, the Twins will get some rotation help in the coming week with Michael Pineda's suspension reaching an end. He's scheduled to make his season debut on Tuesday against Dallas Keuchel and the White Sox. LOOKING AHEAD The Twins return home with their tails between their legs, but on the bright side, they are 12-3 at Target Field this year. They'll have their work cut out for them in the first half of the week. Coming off a dominant no-hitter in his last outing, Giolito will toe the rubber in Monday's series opener as Hill tries to build upon his solid results from the past week. Pineda's return on Tuesday will be key, both for Minnesota's chances of winning the series and their outlook for the rest of the season and playoffs. If the Clevinger-to-Chicago rumors come to fruition, we could very well be looking at a second matchup between Jose Berríos and Mr. Sunshine within a week's time on Wednesday. A four-game set against Detroit at Target Field next weekend (with the Tigers lining up as "home team" in Friday's nightcap) will offer the Twins a chance for some much-needed redemption. MONDAY, 8/31: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Lucas Giolito v. LHP Rich Hill TUESDAY, 9/1: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – LHP Dallas Keuchel v. RHP Michael Pineda WEDNESDAY, 9/2: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Reynaldo Lopez v. RHP Jose Berrios FRIDAY, 9/4 (G1): TIGERS @ TWINS – LHP Matthew Boyd v. RHP Randy Dobnak FRIDAY, 9/4 (G2): TIGERS @ TWINS – TBD v. LHP Tarik Skubal SATURDAY, 9/5: TIGERS @ TWINS – RHP Casey Mize v. RHP Kenta Maeda SUNDAY, 9/6: TIGERS @ TWINS – RHP Spencer Turnbull v. LHP Rich Hill Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 30 | MIN 3, CLE 2: Bullpen Bends, Does Not Break Game 31 | CLE 4, MIN 2: Cleveland Counterpunch Game 32 | CLE 6, MIN 3: Cleveland Gets To Romo, Takes Series Game 34 | DET 8, MIN 2 Game 35 | DET 4, MIN, 2 Game 36 | DET 3, MIN 2: This Is Not What You Want MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
  13. Regarding the 40-man: I'm not totally positive, but I believe Nick Gordon is on the restricted list as he's been battling COVID. (For multiple months it sounds like, which is scary and concerning.) Regarding Arraez's knee: You're correct. He missed almost the entire 2017 season with a torn ACL. I dunno if that's at all related to what is going on now but it's something to keep in imnd.
  14. It was a wild week for the Minnesota Twins, filled with invigorating highs, painful lows, and injury woes. One starting pitcher flirted with a no-no, as others were more of a no-go. The offense showed more glimpses, driven mainly by the Sanó show. (Yes, this is a rhyming roller coaster.) By the end of the ride, the Twins found themselves in first place still, with a critical series in Cleveland on deck. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/17 through Sun, 8/23 *** Record Last Week: 5-2 (Overall: 19-10) Run Differential Last Week: +5 (Overall: +40) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (1.5 GA) Bomba Counter: 42 (Pace: 90) It was not a great week healthwise for the Twins. Rich Hill returned from his hiatus on Wednesday but looked sluggish, allowing four earned runs on four hits and two walks in just 2⅔ innings. Homer Bailey was moved to the 45-day Injured List, confirming that his return is nowhere near. Jake Odorizzi took a line drive off the ribs in Friday's loss, and later in the same game Zack Littell exited with elbow soreness. Both landed on IL, replaced by relievers Sean Poppen and Danny Coulombe. Late in Sunday's game, Tyler Clippard took a line drive off his pitching arm, and while initial imaging came back negative, Rocco Baldelli said of Clippard after the game, "I can’t imagine he’s going to be throwing a baseball anytime in the very near future." So it'd be no surprise to see another reinforcement called in. Given the offense's continued struggles to find a rhythm, losses in the lineup loom even larger than the litany of injuries plaguing the pitching staff. Luis Arráez started just two games as he continues to battle knee soreness, but the team has bigger concerns. After Wednesday's game, Byron Buxton and Mitch Garver both landed on the Injured List, subtracting two right-handed bats from a unit that has been oddly ineffective against southpaws. There are silver linings with these two key cogs going on the shelf. Buxton has reportedly been bothered for some time by his surgically repaired shoulder, not to mention the foot he sprained during Summer Camp. And while there's been no indication that Garver was hampered by the intercostal muscles that left him wincing after a swing in Wednesday's game ... it would make a lot of sense, given his inexplicably extreme lack of production. A spell of rest may well do them both some good. And their departures create opportunities for deserving players in Ryan Jeffers and LaMonte Wade Jr., who shuttled over from the alternate site in St. Paul. Jeffers was put quickly to work, appearing in all four games since his call-up and starting three of them. Wade Jr. got his first start of the season on Sunday and went 2-for-4 with a double. HIGHLIGHTS The week started with ageless wonder Nelson Cruz once again leaving us in awe, notching his second two-homer game of the season in 4-1 victory over Kansas City. It was merely an appetizer. The following night, Kenta Maeda was pure magic. Taking his dominant start with the Twins to new levels, Maeda carried a no-hitter into the ninth inning against Milwaukee before giving up a weakly-hit single to Eric Sogard and exiting with a career-high 115 pitches. Along the way, Maeda set a franchise record by striking out eight consecutive hitters. He finished with 12 strikeouts and 21 whiffs in eight-plus innings. In this absolute gem, Maeda posted a Game Score of 86, which stands as the highest by a Twins starter since Jose Berríos put up the same number on Opening Day of 2018, with a three-hit shutout against the Orioles. Ranking seventh among major-league starters in fWAR, Maeda has embodied the ace label thus far by any definition. But speaking of Berríos, it was nice to see the rotation's presumed frontman finally look the part on Thursday, breaking off six shutout innings with nine strikeouts and only one hit allowed against Milwaukee. This big step forward for Berríos, combined with the continued excellence of Maeda and consistent quality from Randy Dobnak, makes the rotation's setbacks a bit easier to stomach. With all that being said, the most encouraging development over the past week from my view is Miguel Sanó's explosion at the plate. Last time in this space we pointed to his improving plate discipline as a hugely positive sign, even if the production wasn't quite showing up yet. "As he starts making more contact, Sanó is going to do immense damage." Since then, Sanó has done DAMAGE. (Literally.) Starting all seven games over the past week, the first baseman went 12-for-26 (.462) with eight doubles, five RBIs, and an atom bomb in KC that might've actually left a dent in the wall of Kauffman Stadium's Hall of Fame Museum: He's crushing the meatballs and finally starting to make things happen with those offerings that aren't straight in his wheelhouse. It is almost as noteworthy to me that Sanó reached out and made solid contact on two pitches away and outside the zone in his first two ABs Sunday – resulting in a double and single – as his obliterating a mistake from Brady Singer on Saturday. To provide a sense of closure and cosmic balance, Cruz ended the week as he began it: homering off the Royals. This one, an eighth-inning solo shot off a 100-MPH fastball from Trevor Rosenthal, delivered crucial insurance in an eventual 5-4 victory. LOWLIGHTS The lineup as a whole is definitely starting to come on – they scored seven runs as many times last week (twice) as in the previous three weeks – but it's still been pretty choppy sailing for the bats. Ehire Adrianza, pushed into semi-regular duty with the all the attrition, hasn't risen to the occasion. He went 2-for-14 last week and is at .186/.271/.209 on the season. Newcomer Ildemaro Vargas has quickly established himself as a more intriguing option for the same role, so one wonders how secure Adrianza's roster spot will be as injured players begin returning the fold. Max Kepler went just 4-for-22 (.182) although he did draw six walks to keep the OBP pumping. He hasn't been bad by any means, but his power has conspicuously diminished; since homering his first two at-bats of the season, Kepler has a .379 slugging percentage. He's also 2-for-27 (.074) with a .272 OPS against lefties, so he's been a major contributor to the team-wide deficiency on this front. Seeing a big uptick in playing time with Buxton on the shelf, Jake Cave isn't bringing a lot of juice. He delivered an empty 5-for-18 with five singles last week, and is hitting .150/.227/.175 with one RBI in 44 PAs since a good opening weekend in Chicago. It's hard to see Cave finding much success with his utter lack of discipline at the plate – he struck out six times with no walks last week, and has a 20-to-2 ratio on the season. In this regard, Wade Jr. offers a big upgrade, so I'll be curious to see whether the balance of playing time shifts in the days ahead. Like the offense, the pitching staff experienced some rough patches to go along with the shining moments. Taylor Rogers swiftly sucked the energy out of Maeda's gem on Tuesday, coughing up three runs (one charged to Maeda) while blowing the save and forcing extra innings. Since opening his season with four scoreless appearances, Rogers has allowed six earned runs on 13 hits in 6⅓ innings, blowing two of five save chances and flirting with disaster in Sunday's successful conversion. As I wrote a few days ago, the left-hander had developed a reputation as one of the most reliable high-leverage relievers in baseball, but actually has a negative Win Probability Added since last year's All-Star break. This begs the question: Where should he sit in the current bullpen pecking order? Almost certainly not at the top. On the other end of the bullpen leverage spectrum, exploitable soft spots have begun to surface. Lewis Thorpe punched his ticket off the roster on Wednesday with a brutal outing: 4 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 3 K, 2 HR. He has looked rough basically from the jump this season. So has Littell, who inflated his ERA to 9.95 while allowing another home run on Thursday before landing on IL with elbow inflammation. With a key reliever still sidelined in Cody Stashak, and alternate-siters like Poppen and Coulombe now occupying spots, the bullpen will be pressed to keep getting the job done as the grind of a 21-games-in-20-days stretch marches on. Ten straight days of games still remain in the gauntlet, with six coming against Minnesota's top challengers in the AL Central. TRENDING STORYLINE The trade deadline is now just a week away, coming up on Monday the 31st. The Hot Stove started to heat up over the weekend with Philadelphia pulling the trigger on a deal to acquire Red Sox closer Brandon Workman. Will the Twins be active in these next eight days as they set themselves up for the stretch run and postseason? It seems unlikely that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will give up any big-ticket prospects for a rented difference-maker in this abbreviated season. A playoff berth is all but assured, and it's clear that the Twins' best hope for a high-impact infusion is simply getting their own banged-up players back at full capacity. With that said, it wouldn't surprise me to see a lower-level or move or two as the team looks to navigate the final month at diminished strength. The move to acquire Vargas has already paid dividends, with the utility infielder playing a fairly significant role since coming from Arizona. Another pickup like that might make sense, depending on how things unfold over the next week. Of course, on the day of the trade deadline, Michael Pineda is eligible to return from his suspension, which will factor into the rotation's needs. LOOKING AHEAD The Twins will open this coming week with a monumental series against the Indians, representing the only visit to Cleveland this season. It's a key opportunity for Terry Francona's club, trailing Minnesota by just a game and a half in the standings. Shane Bieber looms in Game 2. From there, the Twins will head to Detroit to FINALLY see the division's weakest team. After facing them zero times in the first 32 games, Minnesota will get Ron Gardenhire and the Tigers 10 times in the final 28, accounting for roughly one-third of their remaining schedule. Theoretically this should be a very beneficial thing, but it requires capitalizing on the opportunity. The Twins will have their first chance in next weekend's four-game set. MONDAY, 8/24: TWINS @ INDIANS – RHP Kenta Maeda v. RHP Aaron Civale TUESDAY, 8/25: TWINS @ INDIANS – LHP Rich Hill v. RHP Shane Bieber WEDNESDAY, 8/26: TWINS @ INDIANS – RHP Jose Berrios v. RHP Adam Plutko THURSDAY, 8/27: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Randy Dobnak v. LHP Matthew Boyd FRIDAY, 8/28: TWINS @ TIGERS – TBD v. LHP Tarik Skubal SATURDAY, 8/29: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Kenta Maeda v. RHP Casey Mize SUNDAY, 8/30: TWINS @ TIGERS – LHP Rich Hill v. RHP Spencer Turnbull Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 23 | MIN 4, KCR 1: Nelson Cruz Continues to Defy LogicGame 24 | MIN 4, MIL 3: Kenta Maeda Carries No-No Into 9th Inning; Twins Win In ExtrasGame 25 | MIL 9, MIN 3: Hill Follows Maeda's Gem With a ClunkerGame 26 | MIN 7, MIL 1: It's a Blessed Jose Berríos Day!Game 27 | KC 7, MIN 2: Royal PainGame 28 | MIN 7, KC 2: Rosario, Sano Power Twins Win in KCGame 29 | MIN 5, KC 4 : Bullpen Steps Up AgainMORE FROM TWINS DAILY— Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
  15. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/17 through Sun, 8/23 *** Record Last Week: 5-2 (Overall: 19-10) Run Differential Last Week: +5 (Overall: +40) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (1.5 GA) Bomba Counter: 42 (Pace: 90) It was not a great week healthwise for the Twins. Rich Hill returned from his hiatus on Wednesday but looked sluggish, allowing four earned runs on four hits and two walks in just 2⅔ innings. Homer Bailey was moved to the 45-day Injured List, confirming that his return is nowhere near. Jake Odorizzi took a line drive off the ribs in Friday's loss, and later in the same game Zack Littell exited with elbow soreness. Both landed on IL, replaced by relievers Sean Poppen and Danny Coulombe. Late in Sunday's game, Tyler Clippard took a line drive off his pitching arm, and while initial imaging came back negative, Rocco Baldelli said of Clippard after the game, "I can’t imagine he’s going to be throwing a baseball anytime in the very near future." So it'd be no surprise to see another reinforcement called in. Given the offense's continued struggles to find a rhythm, losses in the lineup loom even larger than the litany of injuries plaguing the pitching staff. Luis Arráez started just two games as he continues to battle knee soreness, but the team has bigger concerns. After Wednesday's game, Byron Buxton and Mitch Garver both landed on the Injured List, subtracting two right-handed bats from a unit that has been oddly ineffective against southpaws. There are silver linings with these two key cogs going on the shelf. Buxton has reportedly been bothered for some time by his surgically repaired shoulder, not to mention the foot he sprained during Summer Camp. And while there's been no indication that Garver was hampered by the intercostal muscles that left him wincing after a swing in Wednesday's game ... it would make a lot of sense, given his inexplicably extreme lack of production. A spell of rest may well do them both some good. And their departures create opportunities for deserving players in Ryan Jeffers and LaMonte Wade Jr., who shuttled over from the alternate site in St. Paul. Jeffers was put quickly to work, appearing in all four games since his call-up and starting three of them. Wade Jr. got his first start of the season on Sunday and went 2-for-4 with a double. HIGHLIGHTS The week started with ageless wonder Nelson Cruz once again leaving us in awe, notching his second two-homer game of the season in 4-1 victory over Kansas City. It was merely an appetizer. The following night, Kenta Maeda was pure magic. Taking his dominant start with the Twins to new levels, Maeda carried a no-hitter into the ninth inning against Milwaukee before giving up a weakly-hit single to Eric Sogard and exiting with a career-high 115 pitches. Along the way, Maeda set a franchise record by striking out eight consecutive hitters. He finished with 12 strikeouts and 21 whiffs in eight-plus innings. In this absolute gem, Maeda posted a Game Score of 86, which stands as the highest by a Twins starter since Jose Berríos put up the same number on Opening Day of 2018, with a three-hit shutout against the Orioles. Ranking seventh among major-league starters in fWAR, Maeda has embodied the ace label thus far by any definition. But speaking of Berríos, it was nice to see the rotation's presumed frontman finally look the part on Thursday, breaking off six shutout innings with nine strikeouts and only one hit allowed against Milwaukee. This big step forward for Berríos, combined with the continued excellence of Maeda and consistent quality from Randy Dobnak, makes the rotation's setbacks a bit easier to stomach. With all that being said, the most encouraging development over the past week from my view is Miguel Sanó's explosion at the plate. Last time in this space we pointed to his improving plate discipline as a hugely positive sign, even if the production wasn't quite showing up yet. "As he starts making more contact, Sanó is going to do immense damage." Since then, Sanó has done DAMAGE. (Literally.) Starting all seven games over the past week, the first baseman went 12-for-26 (.462) with eight doubles, five RBIs, and an atom bomb in KC that might've actually left a dent in the wall of Kauffman Stadium's Hall of Fame Museum: https://twitter.com/Twins/status/1297534058616905728 https://twitter.com/CoryProvus/status/1297331194808459264 At 115.8 MPH, it was the hardest hit ball of Sanó's career, the second-hardest hit home run by a Twins player in the Statcast era (c. 2015), and the highest exit velocity posted by a Twins hitter this year. Sanó dominates that list: https://twitter.com/NickNelsonMN/status/1297330079861743616 He's crushing the meatballs and finally starting to make things happen with those offerings that aren't straight in his wheelhouse. It is almost as noteworthy to me that Sanó reached out and made solid contact on two pitches away and outside the zone in his first two ABs Sunday – resulting in a double and single – as his obliterating a mistake from Brady Singer on Saturday. To provide a sense of closure and cosmic balance, Cruz ended the week as he began it: homering off the Royals. This one, an eighth-inning solo shot off a 100-MPH fastball from Trevor Rosenthal, delivered crucial insurance in an eventual 5-4 victory. LOWLIGHTS The lineup as a whole is definitely starting to come on – they scored seven runs as many times last week (twice) as in the previous three weeks – but it's still been pretty choppy sailing for the bats. Ehire Adrianza, pushed into semi-regular duty with the all the attrition, hasn't risen to the occasion. He went 2-for-14 last week and is at .186/.271/.209 on the season. Newcomer Ildemaro Vargas has quickly established himself as a more intriguing option for the same role, so one wonders how secure Adrianza's roster spot will be as injured players begin returning the fold. Max Kepler went just 4-for-22 (.182) although he did draw six walks to keep the OBP pumping. He hasn't been bad by any means, but his power has conspicuously diminished; since homering his first two at-bats of the season, Kepler has a .379 slugging percentage. He's also 2-for-27 (.074) with a .272 OPS against lefties, so he's been a major contributor to the team-wide deficiency on this front. Seeing a big uptick in playing time with Buxton on the shelf, Jake Cave isn't bringing a lot of juice. He delivered an empty 5-for-18 with five singles last week, and is hitting .150/.227/.175 with one RBI in 44 PAs since a good opening weekend in Chicago. It's hard to see Cave finding much success with his utter lack of discipline at the plate – he struck out six times with no walks last week, and has a 20-to-2 ratio on the season. In this regard, Wade Jr. offers a big upgrade, so I'll be curious to see whether the balance of playing time shifts in the days ahead. Like the offense, the pitching staff experienced some rough patches to go along with the shining moments. Taylor Rogers swiftly sucked the energy out of Maeda's gem on Tuesday, coughing up three runs (one charged to Maeda) while blowing the save and forcing extra innings. Since opening his season with four scoreless appearances, Rogers has allowed six earned runs on 13 hits in 6⅓ innings, blowing two of five save chances and flirting with disaster in Sunday's successful conversion. As I wrote a few days ago, the left-hander had developed a reputation as one of the most reliable high-leverage relievers in baseball, but actually has a negative Win Probability Added since last year's All-Star break. This begs the question: Where should he sit in the current bullpen pecking order? Almost certainly not at the top. On the other end of the bullpen leverage spectrum, exploitable soft spots have begun to surface. Lewis Thorpe punched his ticket off the roster on Wednesday with a brutal outing: 4 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 3 K, 2 HR. He has looked rough basically from the jump this season. So has Littell, who inflated his ERA to 9.95 while allowing another home run on Thursday before landing on IL with elbow inflammation. With a key reliever still sidelined in Cody Stashak, and alternate-siters like Poppen and Coulombe now occupying spots, the bullpen will be pressed to keep getting the job done as the grind of a 21-games-in-20-days stretch marches on. Ten straight days of games still remain in the gauntlet, with six coming against Minnesota's top challengers in the AL Central. TRENDING STORYLINE The trade deadline is now just a week away, coming up on Monday the 31st. The Hot Stove started to heat up over the weekend with Philadelphia pulling the trigger on a deal to acquire Red Sox closer Brandon Workman. Will the Twins be active in these next eight days as they set themselves up for the stretch run and postseason? It seems unlikely that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will give up any big-ticket prospects for a rented difference-maker in this abbreviated season. A playoff berth is all but assured, and it's clear that the Twins' best hope for a high-impact infusion is simply getting their own banged-up players back at full capacity. With that said, it wouldn't surprise me to see a lower-level or move or two as the team looks to navigate the final month at diminished strength. The move to acquire Vargas has already paid dividends, with the utility infielder playing a fairly significant role since coming from Arizona. Another pickup like that might make sense, depending on how things unfold over the next week. Of course, on the day of the trade deadline, Michael Pineda is eligible to return from his suspension, which will factor into the rotation's needs. LOOKING AHEAD The Twins will open this coming week with a monumental series against the Indians, representing the only visit to Cleveland this season. It's a key opportunity for Terry Francona's club, trailing Minnesota by just a game and a half in the standings. Shane Bieber looms in Game 2. From there, the Twins will head to Detroit to FINALLY see the division's weakest team. After facing them zero times in the first 32 games, Minnesota will get Ron Gardenhire and the Tigers 10 times in the final 28, accounting for roughly one-third of their remaining schedule. Theoretically this should be a very beneficial thing, but it requires capitalizing on the opportunity. The Twins will have their first chance in next weekend's four-game set. MONDAY, 8/24: TWINS @ INDIANS – RHP Kenta Maeda v. RHP Aaron Civale TUESDAY, 8/25: TWINS @ INDIANS – LHP Rich Hill v. RHP Shane Bieber WEDNESDAY, 8/26: TWINS @ INDIANS – RHP Jose Berrios v. RHP Adam Plutko THURSDAY, 8/27: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Randy Dobnak v. LHP Matthew Boyd FRIDAY, 8/28: TWINS @ TIGERS – TBD v. LHP Tarik Skubal SATURDAY, 8/29: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Kenta Maeda v. RHP Casey Mize SUNDAY, 8/30: TWINS @ TIGERS – LHP Rich Hill v. RHP Spencer Turnbull Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 23 | MIN 4, KCR 1: Nelson Cruz Continues to Defy Logic Game 24 | MIN 4, MIL 3: Kenta Maeda Carries No-No Into 9th Inning; Twins Win In Extras Game 25 | MIL 9, MIN 3: Hill Follows Maeda's Gem With a Clunker Game 26 | MIN 7, MIL 1: It's a Blessed Jose Berríos Day! Game 27 | KC 7, MIN 2: Royal Pain Game 28 | MIN 7, KC 2: Rosario, Sano Power Twins Win in KC Game 29 | MIN 5, KC 4 : Bullpen Steps Up Again MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
  16. On Opening Day last year, Jose Berríos pitched 7 2/3 shutout innings against Cleveland before giving way to Taylor Rogers, who notched the final four outs in perfect fashion to slam the door on a 2-0 victory. It was a fitting start in another season where Berríos would be the rotation's frontman and Rogers would anchor the bullpen. This year has been a very different story for the two. What gives?When the All-Star Game rolled around last summer, Berríos was there representing the Twins, thanks to his 3.00 ERA and 1.11 WHIP through 18 starts. The closer Rogers easily could have joined Minnesota's No. 1 starter on the All-Star roster with his 1.82 ERA and 2.84 Win Probability Added, which ranked fifth among MLB relievers. Since the 2019 All-Star break, Berríos has a 4.93 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 19 starts. Rogers has a 3.96 ERA with six homers allowed and a negative WPA (-0.18) in 38 2/3 innings. It's been strange and saddening to watch these former stalwarts stall out and show their warts. Both are great stories who've earned their way into the hearts of Twins fans – Berríos a scrappy spark plug known for his heart and relentless work ethic, Rogers a washed-out starter who reinvented himself as an elite bullpen arm. They were rightfully viewed coming into this season as the entrenched leaders on a staff poised for championship contention, but both have come up noticeably short during the first month of action. Whatever is afflicting these hurlers, the symptoms are similar. They're getting hit, hard. A look at their batted-ball profiles shows a clear shift away from soft/medium contact and toward harder contact. Berríos First Half 2019 – Soft: 21.0% | Medium: 43.7% | Hard: 35.3% Since Then – Soft: 15.4% | Medium: 44.2% | Hard: 40.4% Rogers First Half 2019 – Soft: 18.4% | Medium: 52.0% | Hard; 29.6% Since Then – Soft: 22.0% | Medium: 43.0% | Hard: 35.0% Last year, batters barreled up 6.5% of offering from Berríos, this year it's up to 12.3%. Rogers is up from 6.4% to 11.1%. What is at the root of these struggles? In neither case has there been a significant drop-off in velocity or stuff. Quite the opposite in Berríos' case; he's up a couple ticks of MPH across the board (perhaps to his detriment). Physically, these guys both seem okay, and whatever issues they're going through look to be correctable. Rogers in particular has been overtly a victim of bad luck, paper-cut to death by bleeders and bloopers in a couple of his rough outings. His 2.29 FIP and 2.36 xFIP, compared to a 4.82 ERA, serve as evidence. I can't say I'm especially worried about the long-term outlook for either of these pitchers. They're 26 and 29 years old, both healthy. The performance dips are ultimately covering small samples in contrast to their impressive bodies of work in years preceding, and neither has lost the ability to reach the mid-90s or miss bats. The real takeaway for me here is that even with the incumbent ringleaders on the Twins' pitching staff this year both dragging down rather than lifting up their respective units, this team is still shutting down opposing offenses consistently. Entering play Wednesday, Minnesota ranked second in the AL, behind Cleveland, in ERA and runs allowed. That speaks to the admirable job this front office has done in proactively adding talent to supplement Berríos and Rogers, as well as the coaching staff in developing pieces around him. The emergence of Randy Dobnak and Tyler Duffey during the same period as those two have slid, for instance, has provided a stark counterbalance – not to mention the additions of Kenta Maeda and Sergio Romo. The Twins now have a variety of "ace" candidates for both the rotation and bullpen, relieving pressure on Berríos and Rogers while also allowing the Twins to be patient as the duo seeks to find their grooves once again. With that said, it'd sure be nice to see the lapsed leaders of this pitching staff could emphatically reclaim their titles, and soon. I miss watching them dominate, and I know I'm not alone. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
  17. When the All-Star Game rolled around last summer, Berríos was there representing the Twins, thanks to his 3.00 ERA and 1.11 WHIP through 18 starts. The closer Rogers easily could have joined Minnesota's No. 1 starter on the All-Star roster with his 1.82 ERA and 2.84 Win Probability Added, which ranked fifth among MLB relievers. Since the 2019 All-Star break, Berríos has a 4.93 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 19 starts. Rogers has a 3.96 ERA with six homers allowed and a negative WPA (-0.18) in 38 2/3 innings. It's been strange and saddening to watch these former stalwarts stall out and show their warts. Both are great stories who've earned their way into the hearts of Twins fans – Berríos a scrappy spark plug known for his heart and relentless work ethic, Rogers a washed-out starter who reinvented himself as an elite bullpen arm. They were rightfully viewed coming into this season as the entrenched leaders on a staff poised for championship contention, but both have come up noticeably short during the first month of action. Whatever is afflicting these hurlers, the symptoms are similar. They're getting hit, hard. A look at their batted-ball profiles shows a clear shift away from soft/medium contact and toward harder contact. Berríos First Half 2019 – Soft: 21.0% | Medium: 43.7% | Hard: 35.3% Since Then – Soft: 15.4% | Medium: 44.2% | Hard: 40.4% Rogers First Half 2019 – Soft: 18.4% | Medium: 52.0% | Hard; 29.6% Since Then – Soft: 22.0% | Medium: 43.0% | Hard: 35.0% Last year, batters barreled up 6.5% of offering from Berríos, this year it's up to 12.3%. Rogers is up from 6.4% to 11.1%. What is at the root of these struggles? In neither case has there been a significant drop-off in velocity or stuff. Quite the opposite in Berríos' case; he's up a couple ticks of MPH across the board (perhaps to his detriment). Physically, these guys both seem okay, and whatever issues they're going through look to be correctable. Rogers in particular has been overtly a victim of bad luck, paper-cut to death by bleeders and bloopers in a couple of his rough outings. His 2.29 FIP and 2.36 xFIP, compared to a 4.82 ERA, serve as evidence. I can't say I'm especially worried about the long-term outlook for either of these pitchers. They're 26 and 29 years old, both healthy. The performance dips are ultimately covering small samples in contrast to their impressive bodies of work in years preceding, and neither has lost the ability to reach the mid-90s or miss bats. The real takeaway for me here is that even with the incumbent ringleaders on the Twins' pitching staff this year both dragging down rather than lifting up their respective units, this team is still shutting down opposing offenses consistently. Entering play Wednesday, Minnesota ranked second in the AL, behind Cleveland, in ERA and runs allowed. That speaks to the admirable job this front office has done in proactively adding talent to supplement Berríos and Rogers, as well as the coaching staff in developing pieces around him. The emergence of Randy Dobnak and Tyler Duffey during the same period as those two have slid, for instance, has provided a stark counterbalance – not to mention the additions of Kenta Maeda and Sergio Romo. The Twins now have a variety of "ace" candidates for both the rotation and bullpen, relieving pressure on Berríos and Rogers while also allowing the Twins to be patient as the duo seeks to find their grooves once again. With that said, it'd sure be nice to see the lapsed leaders of this pitching staff could emphatically reclaim their titles, and soon. I miss watching them dominate, and I know I'm not alone. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
  18. No denying that's been the case thus far. Last year Sano batted .299 and slugged .729 against fastballs, with a 26.7% whiff rate. This year his whiff rate on FBs is up to 46.3%. So he has either fundamentally lost the ability to hit them at age 27 for some reason, or his timing is off and he's still catching up because he had a shortened training camp. Which do you think is more likely?
  19. In their third full week of action, the Minnesota Twins went 4-2, with four of their six games decided by a final score of ... 4-2. While the offense is still waiting to click, several key hitters are finding their rhythms, and pitching continues to shine, with one starter building his case for Rookie of the Year and maybe even the Cy Young. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/10 through Sun, 8/16 *** Record Last Week: 4-2 (Overall: 14-8) Run Differential Last Week: +12 (Overall: +35) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (1.0 GA) Bomba Counter: 35 (Pace: 95) Following a week of tough injury news, the Twins had smoother sailing over the past week. Cody Stashak went on the Injured List due to lower back inflammation, but his departure was offset by the return of Zack Littell, who tossed a scoreless inning in his return to action on Saturday. Meanwhile, Rich Hill had a successful throwing session at the St. Paul site on Friday, and there's optimism he'll be able to step back into the rotation in the coming week. Homer Bailey's timeline is less concrete, but he's at least back to playing catch. As for Josh Donaldson ... no return in sight. Last week's Trending Storyline in this column pertained to the search for added infield depth, with Donaldon's absence looking to be an extended one. We floated names of some prospects at the alternate training site, but the problem with that route was always going to be bringing in a completely green rookie who's never faced MLB pitching, and hasn't even been able to play competitive games in the minors this season. So the Twins took a different route. They traded cash considerations to Arizona for Ildemaro Vargas, a versatile defender with considerable big-league experience who has – importantly – been facing MLB pitching already this year (albeit with a .340 OPS in 21 plate appearances). Righty reliever Cory Gearrin was designated for assignment to make room on the 40-man roster for Vargas, who made his debut as a pinch-runner and third baseman on Sunday. A winning week preserves Minnesota's spot atop the AL Central standings (though Cleveland is nipping at their heels), and their plus-35 run differential is tied with the Yankees for tops in the American League. Here's a look back at bright spots and areas of concern from the past week. HIGHLIGHTS As several key hitters stumbled out of the gates, the reassuring mantra went like this: It's early, pitchers are always ahead of hitters in spring training, and no one got a full ramp-up to this abbreviated season. That line of thinking has been supported by the noticeable drop-off in offensive output across the board in the early weeks. Now, with one-third of the season in the books, it looks like two of Minnesota's most critical lineup fixtures are catching up. Byron Buxton had begun to simmer the previous week, when he homered in three straight games, and his hot bat carried forward as he notched a pair of three-hit games in Milwaukee, including a two-homer outburst on Wednesday. Even with an 0-for-9 showing against Kansas City over the weekend, Buxton sports a .790 OPS, and is slugging .703 in his past 10 games. After perpetually getting under the ball in the early going, Buxton is connecting now with much more authority and regularity. Even his outs over the past week tended to be well-struck deep drives tracked down by outfielders (karma?). It would be nice to see a little more discipline – he still has only one walk in 59 plate appearances – but aggressiveness is paying off for Buxton, and the raw power is emerging. LOWLIGHTS The weakest link in this steady rotation is ... not exactly the one we expected. Last year, through five starts, José Berríos was 3-1 with a 2.97 ERA, and holding opponents to a .666 OPS. This year has been quite a different tale. Another rough outing against the the Royals on Saturday (4 IP, 4 ER) dropped Berríos to 1-3 record with a 5.92 ERA through his first five starts of 2020. Opponents are rocking an .854 OPS. In a nightcap loss against Kansas City, the right-hander's issues were all too familiar. His velocity and pitch movement were certainly there, indicating no physical limitations, but his command wavered as he seemed to alternate between missing the zone entirely and leaving hittable pitchers out over the plate. His previously infallible ability to limit hard contact has gone amiss here in 2020: Download attachment: berriosstatcastcomps.png Berríos' margin for error has unfortunately been pretty thin. The Twins have dropped three of his last four starts, scoring two or fewer runs in each of the losses. It'll be hard to feel great about this team's postseason outlook if Berríos can't start to turn things around, but then, it'll be hard to feel confident in their chances with anyone on the mound if the offense can't find some consistent juice. The 12-run explosion against Milwaukee on Wednesday was nice to see, but this remains a feast-or-famine unit, which scored four or fewer in all five other games, and has pushed across more than six in a contest only twice since the opening series. The absence of Donaldson hurts, but the bigger problem is that this lineup rarely seems to have multiple players locked in simultaneously, or for a sustained period. Buxton couldn't buy a hit over the weekend after his big series in Milwaukee. Sanó, despite his positive signs, still hasn't become a difference-maker for the offense yet. Max Kepler was 1-for-16 on the week before his crucial two-run homer on Sunday. Mitch Garver has driven in one run since Opening Day. We keep waiting for this vaunted offense to awaken and start punishing opponents in accordance with their statement from the opening weekend, but it's still not happening. TRENDING STORYLINE The Twins don't have another scheduled day off until September 3rd – more than two weeks from now. Factor in Saturday's double-header, and that's a stretch of 20 games in 19 days. It'll be interesting to see how Rocco Baldelli handled his regulars during this gauntlet, which includes potentially key series against Cleveland and Chicago. More rest? Less? Reinforcements called in to aid the cause? (Willians Astudillo?) Even more so, I'm curious to see how the pitching staff is managed. It'd be unsurprising to see the "revolving door" strategy from last year implemented for the last spot or two in the bullpen, with relievers being swapped out for a fresh arm immediately after taxing appearances. Which players from the alternate training site could we see enter the fold? Sean Poppen, who was 29th man for Saturday's double-header, is a good bet. Could we see debuts from exciting prospects like Jhoan Duran, Dakota Chalmers, or even Edwar Colina (who'd need to be added to the 40-man roster)? It sure seems plausible. LOOKING AHEAD The slate for this coming week looks very familiar, as the Twins run out a string of 17 straight games against the Brewers and Royals. First, Minnesota wraps its four-game home series against Kansas City, then welcomes Milwaukee to Target Field before heading back to Kauffman for the last time. If you're tired of seeing this pesky Royals club, which has gone 4-2 against the Twins through six contests, the good news is that we'll be finished with them after this week. Keep an eye on that "TBD" for the Twins on Wednesday, when Hill could very well jump back into the rotation. MONDAY, 8/17: ROYALS @ TWINS – LHP Kris Bubic v. RHP Matt Wisler TUESDAY, 8/18: BREWERS @ TWINS – RHP Corbin Burnes v. RHP Kenta Maeda WEDNESDAY, 8/19: BREWERS @ TWINS – LHP Brett Anderson v. TBD THURSDAY, 8/20: BREWERS @ TWINS – RHP Brandon Woodruff v. RHP Jake Odorizzi FRIDAY, 8/21: TWINS @ ROYALS – RHP Jose Berrios v. LHP Danny Duffy SATURDAY, 8/22: TWINS @ ROYALS – RHP Randy Dobnak v. RHP Brady Singer SUNDAY, 8/23: TWINS @ ROYALS – RHP Kenta Maeda v. LHP Kris Bubic Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 17 | MIN 4, MIL 2: The Randy and Rosie Show Game 18 | MIL 6, MIN 4: Another Loss for Rogers, Additional Missed Opportunities for Offense Game 19 | MIN 12, MIL 2: Byron Buxton Blasts 2 More Home Runs in Blowout of Brewers Game 20 | MIN 4, KCR 2 Game 21 | KCR 4, MIN 2 Game 22 | MIN 4, KCR 2: Pitching, Defense and Overall Execution Shine in Twins Victory MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
  20. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/10 through Sun, 8/16 *** Record Last Week: 4-2 (Overall: 14-8) Run Differential Last Week: +12 (Overall: +35) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (1.0 GA) Bomba Counter: 35 (Pace: 95) Following a week of tough injury news, the Twins had smoother sailing over the past week. Cody Stashak went on the Injured List due to lower back inflammation, but his departure was offset by the return of Zack Littell, who tossed a scoreless inning in his return to action on Saturday. Meanwhile, Rich Hill had a successful throwing session at the St. Paul site on Friday, and there's optimism he'll be able to step back into the rotation in the coming week. Homer Bailey's timeline is less concrete, but he's at least back to playing catch. As for Josh Donaldson ... no return in sight. Last week's Trending Storyline in this column pertained to the search for added infield depth, with Donaldon's absence looking to be an extended one. We floated names of some prospects at the alternate training site, but the problem with that route was always going to be bringing in a completely green rookie who's never faced MLB pitching, and hasn't even been able to play competitive games in the minors this season. So the Twins took a different route. They traded cash considerations to Arizona for Ildemaro Vargas, a versatile defender with considerable big-league experience who has – importantly – been facing MLB pitching already this year (albeit with a .340 OPS in 21 plate appearances). Righty reliever Cory Gearrin was designated for assignment to make room on the 40-man roster for Vargas, who made his debut as a pinch-runner and third baseman on Sunday. A winning week preserves Minnesota's spot atop the AL Central standings (though Cleveland is nipping at their heels), and their plus-35 run differential is tied with the Yankees for tops in the American League. Here's a look back at bright spots and areas of concern from the past week. HIGHLIGHTS As several key hitters stumbled out of the gates, the reassuring mantra went like this: It's early, pitchers are always ahead of hitters in spring training, and no one got a full ramp-up to this abbreviated season. That line of thinking has been supported by the noticeable drop-off in offensive output across the board in the early weeks. Now, with one-third of the season in the books, it looks like two of Minnesota's most critical lineup fixtures are catching up. Byron Buxton had begun to simmer the previous week, when he homered in three straight games, and his hot bat carried forward as he notched a pair of three-hit games in Milwaukee, including a two-homer outburst on Wednesday. Even with an 0-for-9 showing against Kansas City over the weekend, Buxton sports a .790 OPS, and is slugging .703 in his past 10 games. After perpetually getting under the ball in the early going, Buxton is connecting now with much more authority and regularity. Even his outs over the past week tended to be well-struck deep drives tracked down by outfielders (karma?). It would be nice to see a little more discipline – he still has only one walk in 59 plate appearances – but aggressiveness is paying off for Buxton, and the raw power is emerging. https://twitter.com/Nashwalker9/status/1293937003789156355 Then, we have Miguel Sanó. In contrast to Buxton, it is the improving plate approach that stands out here more than the production. Sanó had only three hits in the last week (including one absolute mammoth home run at Miller Park, see below) but the massive strides in plate discipline are enormously encouraging. https://twitter.com/Twins/status/1293700933835272197 In his 47 plate appearances prior to last Monday, Sanó had drawn one non-intentional walk, compared to 23 strikeouts. In six games since, he's drawn six non-intentional walks compared to eight strikeouts in 18 plate appearances. That's just a night-and-day difference and one that bodes extremely well, even if the first baseman is still having a helluva time making consistent contact. He continues to strike out in nearly half his plate appearances, but here's the caveat worth zeroing in on: When Sanó makes contact, he's barreling up at a higher percentage than any other player in baseball. He ranks fourth in average exit velocity. I feel confident in saying his career-high 18.9% whiff rate is going to come down. The fact that he's suddenly drawing tons of walks indicates he's laying off more bad pitches, which is a key step in that direction. As he starts making more contact, Sanó is going to do immense damage. That'll be appreciated by a pitching staff that continues to carry the load without a ton of support. Randy Dobnak keeps on making do; the team is averaging just 4 R/G when he starts, and yet he has managed to pick up wins in four straight. He rattled off two more victories last week, allowing three runs over 10 1/3 innings. Opponents are batting .178 against Minnesota's unlikely ace through five starts, and his 1.46 ERA ranks as the fifth-best in baseball. He's gotta be viewed as the clear front-runner for AL Rookie of the Year at this point, and a leading candidate for the Cy Young alongside the likes of Lance Lynn (3-0, 1.11) and Shane Bieber (4-0, 1.30). What a story. He and the rest of the Twins' stand-out staff, which allowed just three runs per game on average over the past week, are getting plenty of help from a defense that's been stunningly effective so far. Buxton has been fantastic as usual in center field, and made a number of nice plays over the past week, but he wasn't alone. Check out this sampling of stellar efforts from Eddie Rosario, Marwin González, and the double-play duo of Jorge Polanco and Luis Arráez: https://twitter.com/Twins/status/1295086070489546754 https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/1294765635289976840 https://twitter.com/TFTwins/status/1295091067155550209 LOWLIGHTS The weakest link in this steady rotation is ... not exactly the one we expected. Last year, through five starts, José Berríos was 3-1 with a 2.97 ERA, and holding opponents to a .666 OPS. This year has been quite a different tale. Another rough outing against the the Royals on Saturday (4 IP, 4 ER) dropped Berríos to 1-3 record with a 5.92 ERA through his first five starts of 2020. Opponents are rocking an .854 OPS. In a nightcap loss against Kansas City, the right-hander's issues were all too familiar. His velocity and pitch movement were certainly there, indicating no physical limitations, but his command wavered as he seemed to alternate between missing the zone entirely and leaving hittable pitchers out over the plate. His previously infallible ability to limit hard contact has gone amiss here in 2020: Berríos' margin for error has unfortunately been pretty thin. The Twins have dropped three of his last four starts, scoring two or fewer runs in each of the losses. It'll be hard to feel great about this team's postseason outlook if Berríos can't start to turn things around, but then, it'll be hard to feel confident in their chances with anyone on the mound if the offense can't find some consistent juice. The 12-run explosion against Milwaukee on Wednesday was nice to see, but this remains a feast-or-famine unit, which scored four or fewer in all five other games, and has pushed across more than six in a contest only twice since the opening series. The absence of Donaldson hurts, but the bigger problem is that this lineup rarely seems to have multiple players locked in simultaneously, or for a sustained period. Buxton couldn't buy a hit over the weekend after his big series in Milwaukee. Sanó, despite his positive signs, still hasn't become a difference-maker for the offense yet. Max Kepler was 1-for-16 on the week before his crucial two-run homer on Sunday. Mitch Garver has driven in one run since Opening Day. We keep waiting for this vaunted offense to awaken and start punishing opponents in accordance with their statement from the opening weekend, but it's still not happening. TRENDING STORYLINE The Twins don't have another scheduled day off until September 3rd – more than two weeks from now. Factor in Saturday's double-header, and that's a stretch of 20 games in 19 days. It'll be interesting to see how Rocco Baldelli handled his regulars during this gauntlet, which includes potentially key series against Cleveland and Chicago. More rest? Less? Reinforcements called in to aid the cause? (Willians Astudillo?) Even more so, I'm curious to see how the pitching staff is managed. It'd be unsurprising to see the "revolving door" strategy from last year implemented for the last spot or two in the bullpen, with relievers being swapped out for a fresh arm immediately after taxing appearances. Which players from the alternate training site could we see enter the fold? Sean Poppen, who was 29th man for Saturday's double-header, is a good bet. Could we see debuts from exciting prospects like Jhoan Duran, Dakota Chalmers, or even Edwar Colina (who'd need to be added to the 40-man roster)? It sure seems plausible. LOOKING AHEAD The slate for this coming week looks very familiar, as the Twins run out a string of 17 straight games against the Brewers and Royals. First, Minnesota wraps its four-game home series against Kansas City, then welcomes Milwaukee to Target Field before heading back to Kauffman for the last time. If you're tired of seeing this pesky Royals club, which has gone 4-2 against the Twins through six contests, the good news is that we'll be finished with them after this week. Keep an eye on that "TBD" for the Twins on Wednesday, when Hill could very well jump back into the rotation. MONDAY, 8/17: ROYALS @ TWINS – LHP Kris Bubic v. RHP Matt Wisler TUESDAY, 8/18: BREWERS @ TWINS – RHP Corbin Burnes v. RHP Kenta Maeda WEDNESDAY, 8/19: BREWERS @ TWINS – LHP Brett Anderson v. TBD THURSDAY, 8/20: BREWERS @ TWINS – RHP Brandon Woodruff v. RHP Jake Odorizzi FRIDAY, 8/21: TWINS @ ROYALS – RHP Jose Berrios v. LHP Danny Duffy SATURDAY, 8/22: TWINS @ ROYALS – RHP Randy Dobnak v. RHP Brady Singer SUNDAY, 8/23: TWINS @ ROYALS – RHP Kenta Maeda v. LHP Kris Bubic Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 17 | MIN 4, MIL 2: The Randy and Rosie Show Game 18 | MIL 6, MIN 4: Another Loss for Rogers, Additional Missed Opportunities for Offense Game 19 | MIN 12, MIL 2: Byron Buxton Blasts 2 More Home Runs in Blowout of Brewers Game 20 | MIN 4, KCR 2 Game 21 | KCR 4, MIN 2 Game 22 | MIN 4, KCR 2: Pitching, Defense and Overall Execution Shine in Twins Victory MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
  21. I knew it was something along those lines. Thanks for the reminder!
  22. By May of 2019, Tyler Duffey had just about reached the end of the line in Minnesota. Optioned to the minors for a 10th time since his initial call-up in 2015, the right-hander had to be looking forward to a fresh start. Thankfully, unlike the two other best relief pitchers in baseball – both former Twins – he didn't need one to turn the corner.The flurry of moves Duffey endured over a three-day span last year must have had his head spinning. I don't recall the exact circumstances around his being recalled, optioned, and recalled again on consecutive days, and I don't recall if he actually traveled back and forth to Rochester. I hope not. Download attachment: duffeymoves.JPG While this roster maneuvering may have been extreme, it was hardly unfamiliar ground for Duffey, who'd grown accustomed to shuttling back and forth between the majors and Triple-A. Following his 10th such turnaround, the 28-year-old seemed to be firmly placing himself in the "Quad-A player" category: Good enough to excel at the highest level of the minors, where he'd posted a 2.90 ERA in 2018 (59 IP), but not good enough for the bigs, where his ERA was 7.20 in 25 innings. I can think of two former Twins pitchers who were once deemed Quad-A players. And incidentally, they now surround Duffey on the list of top-performing MLB relief pitchers since the 2019 trade deadline, according fWAR: 1. Liam Hendriks, OAK - 1.7 2. Tyler Duffey, MIN - 1.5 3. Nick Anderson, TB - 1.4 Granted, it's a bit of a selective endpoint, and fWAR is hardly the be-all end-all measure of relief effectiveness, but I think it's fair to categorize these as the three top bullpen arms in the game based on recent results. Hendriks, of course, reached the majors for the Twins as a fringey starting pitching prospect in 2011. He made 30 appearances for the Twins (28 starts) over three seasons with a 6.06 ERA before moving on. It took another five years for him to emerge as an elite closer in Oakland, at in 2019, at age 30. Anderson followed a different path to stardom, and while he too was borne out of the Twins' organization, his sadly never even passed through Minnesota. (Not professionally, anyway.) The Brainerd, MN native was signed out of an independent league by the Twins in 2015. He performed extremely well in their system, with a 2.25 ERA and 11.4 K/9 rate over four seasons, but for whatever reason, never got a look in the majors – not even in the late stages of a lost 2018 that saw them cycling through various spare arms. (Anderson had put up an 88-to-19 K/BB ratio in 60 innings that year as Duffey's teammate at Rochester.) After that season, the Twins traded Anderson to the Marlins for a bag of peanuts. In 2019, Miami gave the hard-throwing righty a shot and he was an immediate sensation, striking out 69 hitters over 43 2/3 innings with a 3.92 ERA before being deal to Tampa at the deadline. Since that point, as we referenced earlier, he's been the third-best (or so) relief pitcher in baseball. The point here is not to relitigate the past or blame the Twins for misjudging their own talent. There's no way they could've stuck with Hendriks through a half-decade of struggle and mediocrity. And while they certainly should've given Anderson a look in 2018, who's to say it would've made any difference? Even a strong performance in a smattering of appearances wasn't going to entrench him. Keep in mind that Oliver Drake posted a 2.21 ERA in 19 appearances for the Twins around that time, and was let go afterward. (Drake, as it happens, has also since caught on as a pretty good reliever for the Rays. Another "Quad-A" guy.) The bottom line is that evaluating bullpen arms is a fickle endeavor. And the Twins could have so easily gotten it wrong with Duffey. What if that 10th time being optioned to the minors was for good? What if they gave up on him and decided to move on? They didn't. Duffey was recalled the next day, and hasn't looked back. Since then, he has a 2.31 ERA and 82-to-12 K/BB with 41 hits allowed in 58 1/3 innings. And since the start of last August, he's been utterly ridiculous: 0.65 ERA, with 31 scoreless appearances out of 32. In 2020, he's been very nearly perfect. The Twins might've let a couple of MLB's relievers get away. But right now the one they kept looks like the very best, and he's surrounded by plenty of other high-end contributors in a bullpen that's been supercharged over the past 16 months. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
  23. The flurry of moves Duffey endured over a three-day span last year must have had his head spinning. I don't recall the exact circumstances around his being recalled, optioned, and recalled again on consecutive days, and I don't recall if he actually traveled back and forth to Rochester. I hope not. While this roster maneuvering may have been extreme, it was hardly unfamiliar ground for Duffey, who'd grown accustomed to shuttling back and forth between the majors and Triple-A. Following his 10th such turnaround, the 28-year-old seemed to be firmly placing himself in the "Quad-A player" category: Good enough to excel at the highest level of the minors, where he'd posted a 2.90 ERA in 2018 (59 IP), but not good enough for the bigs, where his ERA was 7.20 in 25 innings. I can think of two former Twins pitchers who were once deemed Quad-A players. And incidentally, they now surround Duffey on the list of top-performing MLB relief pitchers since the 2019 trade deadline, according fWAR: 1. Liam Hendriks, OAK - 1.7 2. Tyler Duffey, MIN - 1.5 3. Nick Anderson, TB - 1.4Granted, it's a bit of a selective endpoint, and fWAR is hardly the be-all end-all measure of relief effectiveness, but I think it's fair to categorize these as the three top bullpen arms in the game based on recent results. Hendriks, of course, reached the majors for the Twins as a fringey starting pitching prospect in 2011. He made 30 appearances for the Twins (28 starts) over three seasons with a 6.06 ERA before moving on. It took another five years for him to emerge as an elite closer in Oakland, at in 2019, at age 30. Anderson followed a different path to stardom, and while he too was borne out of the Twins' organization, his sadly never even passed through Minnesota. (Not professionally, anyway.) The Brainerd, MN native was signed out of an independent league by the Twins in 2015. He performed extremely well in their system, with a 2.25 ERA and 11.4 K/9 rate over four seasons, but for whatever reason, never got a look in the majors – not even in the late stages of a lost 2018 that saw them cycling through various spare arms. (Anderson had put up an 88-to-19 K/BB ratio in 60 innings that year as Duffey's teammate at Rochester.) After that season, the Twins traded Anderson to the Marlins for a bag of peanuts. In 2019, Miami gave the hard-throwing righty a shot and he was an immediate sensation, striking out 69 hitters over 43 2/3 innings with a 3.92 ERA before being deal to Tampa at the deadline. Since that point, as we referenced earlier, he's been the third-best (or so) relief pitcher in baseball. The point here is not to relitigate the past or blame the Twins for misjudging their own talent. There's no way they could've stuck with Hendriks through a half-decade of struggle and mediocrity. And while they certainly should've given Anderson a look in 2018, who's to say it would've made any difference? Even a strong performance in a smattering of appearances wasn't going to entrench him. Keep in mind that Oliver Drake posted a 2.21 ERA in 19 appearances for the Twins around that time, and was let go afterward. (Drake, as it happens, has also since caught on as a pretty good reliever for the Rays. Another "Quad-A" guy.) The bottom line is that evaluating bullpen arms is a fickle endeavor. And the Twins could have so easily gotten it wrong with Duffey. What if that 10th time being optioned to the minors was for good? What if they gave up on him and decided to move on? They didn't. Duffey was recalled the next day, and hasn't looked back. Since then, he has a 2.31 ERA and 82-to-12 K/BB with 41 hits allowed in 58 1/3 innings. And since the start of last August, he's been utterly ridiculous: 0.65 ERA, with 31 scoreless appearances out of 32. In 2020, he's been very nearly perfect. The Twins might've let a couple of MLB's relievers get away. But right now the one they kept looks like the very best, and he's surrounded by plenty of other high-end contributors in a bullpen that's been supercharged over the past 16 months. https://twitter.com/NickNelsonMN/status/1293356639777705984 MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
  24. After racing to a 10-2 start, the Minnesota Twins hit a speed bump against what should've been an exploitable soft spot in the schedule. A six-game winning streak gave way to a four-game losing streak as the team is suddenly overcome by sleepy and punchless performances. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/3 through Sun, 8/9 *** Record Last Week: 3-4 (Overall: 10-6) Run Differential Last Week: +1 (Overall: +23) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (0.5 GA) Bomba Counter: 25 (Pace: 94) Everything seemed to take a turn for the Twins on Thursday afternoon in Pittsburgh. With a two-run lead in the eighth inning, they appeared to be headed toward a seventh straight win. But the Pirates rallied to manufacture three runs against Sergio Romo and Taylor Rogers, despite not hitting anything especially hard. Rogers ended up getting walked off on a two-run ground ball single, and the Twins haven't won since. Making matters worse is the rash of negative injury news to emerge over the course of the week. Homer Bailey and Rich Hill were both placed on the Injured List, with fairly ominous issues. Bailey is bothered by right biceps tendinitis and, as of Saturday, had yet to resume throwing. Hill's injury seems more minor, as he's traveling with the team and going through his throwing progressions, but it's unsettling to hear about a 40-year-old experiencing shoulder fatigue after his first start of the season.On Friday the Twins announced that Josh Donaldson, who hadn't played for a week, was being placed on the Injured List retroactive to August 4th, meaning he'll miss most of next week at least. I had written on Thursday night about Donaldson's cursed (and blessed) massive calves, which have given him plenty of trouble in the past.On the bright side, Jake Odorizzi was activated to take Donaldson's place on the active roster, and made his season debut on Saturday. He looked okay, allowing two runs over three innings, but what's most important is that he's healthy and back in this depleted rotation. HIGHLIGHTS With the offense still looking to find its rhythm, pitching continues to steal the show. Granted, the Twins faced a soft slate of opponents over the past week, but their arms still deserve plenty of credit for taking care of business. With the exception of Saturday's lapse, it was another strong week for the pitchers, most notably: Randy Dobnak, who delivered yet another sterling performance with six scoreless innings against Pittsburgh on Wednesday. His ERA sits at 0.60 after three starts.Kenta Maeda, who made one make mistake the following day – a three-run homer – but was otherwise outstanding in delivering another quality start.Jorge Alcala, who joined the bullpen just ahead of the week and made three appearances, totaling five innings. He allowed two earned runs on three hits and struck out eight while walking only one. That last stat is most encouraging – if Alcala can keep his 99 MPH heater and hard slider in the zone, he's going be a difference-maker for the bullpen.Tyler Duffey, who pitched only once but extended his remarkable early-season run with a scoreless frame. On the season, Duffey has faced 16 batters and retired 15 of them – 10 on strikeouts. Very nearly perfect. It's interesting, though, that Alcala threw as many innings this past week as Duffey has all season, and that reflects a broader trend: Rocco Baldelli has seemed more inclined to use his lower-tier relief arms than his top dogs, even when his better options are well-rested. Trying to save as many bullets as possible for later? With Garver and Sanó both failing to click, the lineup's right-handed power threat is severely diminished, which might help explain why the teams is slugging just .339 off southpaws. Last year they had a collective .521 slugging percentage against lefties. Count Luis Arráez as another expected spark plug who's been fizzling of late. Since opening the season on a five-game hitting streak, he's gone just 3-for-25, including 3-for-16 over the past week while missing a couple games due to knee soreness. His plate approach is still just fine – he drew four walks with only one strikeout – but the results aren't there right now for the scrappy second baseman, who basically hit non-stop as a rookie. While the pitching staff has mostly been quite good, an overt outlier is Lewis Thorpe. He got the starting nod against Pittsburgh on Monday and was quite shaky, allowing three earned runs on six hits and four walks over four innings. His second appearance of the week came in relief, as Thorpe came in after Odorizzi's exit on Saturday night, and it was even more brutal: He was charged with three runs on three hits – including a home run allowed to light-hitting second baseman Nicky Lopez – while failing to record an out. This year's version of Thorpe looks very little like the intriguing whiff machine we saw last year; his velocity is now down, his command has been poor, and batters aren't getting fooled as evidenced by a 7.4% swinging strike rate. He frankly doesn't look like a very palatable option right now. One wonders if the Twins would consider swapping in a higher-upside arm like Jhoan Duran from the alternative training site to see if it provides a jolt. TRENDING STORYLINE Speaking of reinforcements, the offense could maybe use some right now. The current 18-to-12 ratio of pitchers to position players is quite lopsided, and a lot of key relievers just aren't getting much work. Perhaps that's by design, to an extent, but there have to be downsides to it in terms of maintaining sharpness. Travis Blankenhorn stands out as a sensible short-term add, given that he can play both infield positions (third and second) where the Twins have players banged up. If the team concludes that Donaldson will be out for a prolonged time, might they consider something a little more drastic? Like, say, shifting Sanó back across the diamond to third and using someone like Alex Kirilloff or Brent Rooker at first? Or even sliding a Jorge Polanco or Arráez to third and giving Royce Lewis a look? Of course, there's also a beloved guy by the name of Willians Astudillo who is now recovered from his COVID bout and ramping up in St. Paul... LOOKING AHEAD The Twins are off to Milwaukee to wrap up their road trip in a border battle against the Brewers. Dobnak will open the week tryin build upon his spectacular start to the season on Monday. After three games against the Brew Crew, the Twins get their only day off in the month of August, and then head back to Target Field for a rematch against Kansas City. MONDAY, 8/10: TWINS @ BREWERS – RHP Randy Dobnak v. RHP Adrian Houser TUESDAY, 8/11: TWINS @ BREWERS – TBD v. RHP Josh Lindblom WEDNESDAY, 8/12: TWINS @ BREWERS – RHP Kenta Maeda v. LHP Eric Lauer FRIDAY, 8/14: ROYALS @ TWINS – RHP Jakob Junis v. RHP Jake Odorizzi SATURDAY, 8/15: ROYALS @ TWINS – LHP Danny Duffy v. RHP Jose Berrios SUNDAY, 8/16: ROYALS @ TWINS – Kris Bubic vs Undecided Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 10 | MIN 5, PIT 4: Nelson Cruz Delivers a Walk-Off Hit to Cap ComebackGame 11 | MIN 7, PIT 3: José Berríos Overcomes Command, DroneGame 12 | MIN 5, PIT 2: Randy Dobnak Delivers 6 Scoreless, Max Kepler Provides Key Insurance HomerGame 13 | PIT 6, MIN 5: Taylor Rogers Blows Save, Win Streak SnappedGame 14 | KCR 3, MIN 2: No Cruz, No Donaldson, No Arráez, No OffenseGame 15 | KCR 9, MIN 6: Brief 2020 Debut for Odorizzi; Royals Bust It Open Against BullpenGame 16 | KCR 4, MIN 2: Bad Day for Berríos, BatsMORE FROM TWINS DAILY— Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
  25. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/3 through Sun, 8/9 *** Record Last Week: 3-4 (Overall: 10-6) Run Differential Last Week: +1 (Overall: +23) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (0.5 GA) Bomba Counter: 25 (Pace: 94) Everything seemed to take a turn for the Twins on Thursday afternoon in Pittsburgh. With a two-run lead in the eighth inning, they appeared to be headed toward a seventh straight win. But the Pirates rallied to manufacture three runs against Sergio Romo and Taylor Rogers, despite not hitting anything especially hard. Rogers ended up getting walked off on a two-run ground ball single, and the Twins haven't won since. Making matters worse is the rash of negative injury news to emerge over the course of the week. Homer Bailey and Rich Hill were both placed on the Injured List, with fairly ominous issues. Bailey is bothered by right biceps tendinitis and, as of Saturday, had yet to resume throwing. Hill's injury seems more minor, as he's traveling with the team and going through his throwing progressions, but it's unsettling to hear about a 40-year-old experiencing shoulder fatigue after his first start of the season. On Friday the Twins announced that Josh Donaldson, who hadn't played for a week, was being placed on the Injured List retroactive to August 4th, meaning he'll miss most of next week at least. I had written on Thursday night about Donaldson's cursed (and blessed) massive calves, which have given him plenty of trouble in the past. On the bright side, Jake Odorizzi was activated to take Donaldson's place on the active roster, and made his season debut on Saturday. He looked okay, allowing two runs over three innings, but what's most important is that he's healthy and back in this depleted rotation. HIGHLIGHTS With the offense still looking to find its rhythm, pitching continues to steal the show. Granted, the Twins faced a soft slate of opponents over the past week, but their arms still deserve plenty of credit for taking care of business. With the exception of Saturday's lapse, it was another strong week for the pitchers, most notably: Randy Dobnak, who delivered yet another sterling performance with six scoreless innings against Pittsburgh on Wednesday. His ERA sits at 0.60 after three starts. Kenta Maeda, who made one make mistake the following day – a three-run homer – but was otherwise outstanding in delivering another quality start. Jorge Alcala, who joined the bullpen just ahead of the week and made three appearances, totaling five innings. He allowed two earned runs on three hits and struck out eight while walking only one. That last stat is most encouraging – if Alcala can keep his 99 MPH heater and hard slider in the zone, he's going be a difference-maker for the bullpen. Tyler Duffey, who pitched only once but extended his remarkable early-season run with a scoreless frame. On the season, Duffey has faced 16 batters and retired 15 of them – 10 on strikeouts. Very nearly perfect. It's interesting, though, that Alcala threw as many innings this past week as Duffey has all season, and that reflects a broader trend: Rocco Baldelli has seemed more inclined to use his lower-tier relief arms than his top dogs, even when his better options are well-rested. Trying to save as many bullets as possible for later? https://twitter.com/SethTweets/status/1292575832234266625 In a quieter week for the bats, there were still some standouts at the plate. Most notable among them is Byron Buxton, who shook off an early-season slump to homer in three straight games, and now finds himself on a six-game hitting streak. He raised his OPS from .167 to .779 from Monday to Sunday. Seeing him start to get rolling at the bottom of the order is a huge positive as so many other players struggle, and injuries take their toll. Another key figure in the lineup, especially with Donaldson absent, is Marwin González, and he has risen to the occasion. He started all seven games last week, manning every infield position other than short and looking sharp at each one while going 8-for-26 with a homer and three RBIs. His .855 OPS on the season ranks behind only Nelson Cruz and Max Kepler, who both also had good weeks. For more on Marwin, check out Cody Pirkl's recent article expressing appreciation for González and what he brings to the table for Minnesota. LOWLIGHTS The Twins lineup still has not been able to get going. They've averaged fewer than four runs per game since the season-opening series in Chicago, and were held almost completely in check by a mediocre Royals staff. As Seth wrote over the weekend, Minnesota's struggles might be a little overstated in the context of the entire league, where offense is down generally, but it's still disturbing to see so many hitters in this vaunted group scuffling. At the head of that list is Mitch Garver, who just cannot seem to find it. He started four of the team's seven games last week and went 0-for-14, dropping his average to .094 on the season. He showed decent discipline, drawing four walks against five strikeouts, but the catcher isn't squaring up anything. According to Statcast, his home run against Cleveland last weekend is the only ball he's barrelled up all year; in 2019, Garver ranked among the league's top 4% of players in Barrel %. Also struggling mightily from the right side is Miguel Sanó. The first baseman hit a double and home run against the Pirates, but otherwise went 0-for-20 on the week with 12 strikeouts. For the year, he has struck out 23 times with only one non-intentional walk. Unlike Garver, Sanó is at least crushing the ball when he makes contact, so I expect him to get into a zone soon as he sees more pitches, but it hasn't happened yet. He went 0-for-11 in the KC series. https://twitter.com/NickNelsonMN/status/1292159138424918021 With Garver and Sanó both failing to click, the lineup's right-handed power threat is severely diminished, which might help explain why the teams is slugging just .339 off southpaws. Last year they had a collective .521 slugging percentage against lefties. Count Luis Arráez as another expected spark plug who's been fizzling of late. Since opening the season on a five-game hitting streak, he's gone just 3-for-25, including 3-for-16 over the past week while missing a couple games due to knee soreness. His plate approach is still just fine – he drew four walks with only one strikeout – but the results aren't there right now for the scrappy second baseman, who basically hit non-stop as a rookie. While the pitching staff has mostly been quite good, an overt outlier is Lewis Thorpe. He got the starting nod against Pittsburgh on Monday and was quite shaky, allowing three earned runs on six hits and four walks over four innings. His second appearance of the week came in relief, as Thorpe came in after Odorizzi's exit on Saturday night, and it was even more brutal: He was charged with three runs on three hits – including a home run allowed to light-hitting second baseman Nicky Lopez – while failing to record an out. This year's version of Thorpe looks very little like the intriguing whiff machine we saw last year; his velocity is now down, his command has been poor, and batters aren't getting fooled as evidenced by a 7.4% swinging strike rate. He frankly doesn't look like a very palatable option right now. One wonders if the Twins would consider swapping in a higher-upside arm like Jhoan Duran from the alternative training site to see if it provides a jolt. TRENDING STORYLINE Speaking of reinforcements, the offense could maybe use some right now. The current 18-to-12 ratio of pitchers to position players is quite lopsided, and a lot of key relievers just aren't getting much work. Perhaps that's by design, to an extent, but there have to be downsides to it in terms of maintaining sharpness. Travis Blankenhorn stands out as a sensible short-term add, given that he can play both infield positions (third and second) where the Twins have players banged up. If the team concludes that Donaldson will be out for a prolonged time, might they consider something a little more drastic? Like, say, shifting Sanó back across the diamond to third and using someone like Alex Kirilloff or Brent Rooker at first? Or even sliding a Jorge Polanco or Arráez to third and giving Royce Lewis a look? Of course, there's also a beloved guy by the name of Willians Astudillo who is now recovered from his COVID bout and ramping up in St. Paul... LOOKING AHEAD The Twins are off to Milwaukee to wrap up their road trip in a border battle against the Brewers. Dobnak will open the week tryin build upon his spectacular start to the season on Monday. After three games against the Brew Crew, the Twins get their only day off in the month of August, and then head back to Target Field for a rematch against Kansas City. MONDAY, 8/10: TWINS @ BREWERS – RHP Randy Dobnak v. RHP Adrian Houser TUESDAY, 8/11: TWINS @ BREWERS – TBD v. RHP Josh Lindblom WEDNESDAY, 8/12: TWINS @ BREWERS – RHP Kenta Maeda v. LHP Eric Lauer FRIDAY, 8/14: ROYALS @ TWINS – RHP Jakob Junis v. RHP Jake Odorizzi SATURDAY, 8/15: ROYALS @ TWINS – LHP Danny Duffy v. RHP Jose Berrios SUNDAY, 8/16: ROYALS @ TWINS – Kris Bubic vs Undecided Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 10 | MIN 5, PIT 4: Nelson Cruz Delivers a Walk-Off Hit to Cap Comeback Game 11 | MIN 7, PIT 3: José Berríos Overcomes Command, Drone Game 12 | MIN 5, PIT 2: Randy Dobnak Delivers 6 Scoreless, Max Kepler Provides Key Insurance Homer Game 13 | PIT 6, MIN 5: Taylor Rogers Blows Save, Win Streak Snapped Game 14 | KCR 3, MIN 2: No Cruz, No Donaldson, No Arráez, No Offense Game 15 | KCR 9, MIN 6: Brief 2020 Debut for Odorizzi; Royals Bust It Open Against Bullpen Game 16 | KCR 4, MIN 2: Bad Day for Berríos, Bats MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
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