Nick Nelson

I was joined via live-stream by Andrew Gebo and David Youngs as we looked over the free agent landscape at catcher and infield. We each hrought a few names to the table that we view as good fits, and those targets were discussed and debated. You can tune into future live broadcasts via Twins Daily's Twitter, Facebook, or YouTube page. It's be an interactive show where viewers help steer the conversation via comments and questions. You can catch what you missed via audio by subscribing to our podcast. Who are the names to watch in free agency this year? Find out with us. In the meantime, check out previous episodes of Offseason Live and see what's upcoming: Ep 1: (Thurs, 10/8) Ep 2: (Tues, 10/13) Ep 3: (Thurs, 10/15) Ep 4: (Tues, 10/20) Ep 5: (Thurs, 10/22) Ep 6: Free Agency – Outfield & DH (Tues, 10/27) Ep 7: Free Agency – Starting Pitchers (Thurs, 10/29) Ep 8: Free Agency – Relief Pitchers (Thurs, 11/5) Ep 9: Twins Trade Targets (Tues, 11/10) Ep 10: Offseason Blueprints (Thurs, 11/12)

On Tuesday night's episode of Offseason Live, I talked through each of the Twins' arbitration-eligible players with Matt Braun and Matthew Trueblood. You can watch it below, or keep scrolling for a written breakdown. We know for sure that these seven players are eligible for arbitration: Mitch Garver, C (1st year of of 3) Tyler Duffey (2 of 3) Matt Wisler (2 of 3) Jose Berrios (2 of 3) Taylor Rogers (3 of 4) Byron Buxton (3 of 4) Eddie Rosario (3 of 3) We're not sure about Caleb Thielbar. His service time puts him right on the border of Super 2 status, but that's a murky line as is, made only cloudier by this shortened season. If he is arbitration-eligible for the first time, he is in line for about $1 million, and a no-brainer to bring back. Here's a look at the respective situations of the other seven players (2020 salaries based on full season, 2021 salary estimates via Twins Daily's guesses and those posted at MLB Trade Rumors): Mitch Garver, C 1st year of 3 in Arbitration 2020 Salary: $600K Key Stat: Career .275/.371/.522 hitter versus left-handed pitchers. Arbitration Salary Estimates: Twins Daily: $2M | MLBTR: $1.9M The Lowdown: As he enters arbitration for the first time, Garver's price will be kept in check coming off a lost season. Despite his discouraging campaign, keeping the 2019 Silver Slugger around next year is clearly a no-brainer at this price point, barring a trade. His ability to hit southpaws (which endured through his struggles in 2020, as he stilled slashed .304/.385/.435 vs. LHP) is particularly valuable. At this point it seems likely he'll head into next season slated for a 50/50 timeshare with Ryan Jeffers at catcher. Tyler Duffey, RP 2nd Year of 3 in Arbitration 2020 Salary: $1.2M Key Stat: Ranks 4th among MLB relievers in fWAR since 2019 All-Star break. Arbitration Salary Estimates: TD: $2.5M | MLBTR: $2.6M The Lowdown: Duffey was the Twins' best reliever and one of the best relievers in the American League, so he should at least double his 2020 salary in arbitration. Still, at somewhere in the range of $2.5 to $3 million, he'll be a tremendous bargain. With free agency only two years away, this might be an opportune time for the Twins to pitch his agent on an extension. Matt Wisler, RP 2nd Year of 3 in Arbitration 2020 Salary: $725K Key Stat: 1.07 ERA and 12.4 K/9 in first year with Twins (25.1 IP) Arbitration Salary Estimates: TD: $1.5M | MLBTR: $1.8M The Lowdown: The Twins claimed Wisler off waivers last offseason, seeing promise in his slider, and were rewarded to the fullest. He threw that pitch a career-high 83% of the time in his first season as a Twin, and completely dominated with it, holding opponents to a .143/.141/.221 slash line. It was the nastiest pitch on the Twins and one of the nastiest in baseball. Due to his lack of a track record prior to 2020, Wisler will still be quite cheap – likely under $2 million. Obviously he's back, though it's worth wondering how highly the Twins are prepared to slot him in the bullpen hierarchy. José Berríos, SP Year 2 of 3 in Arbitration 2020 Salary: $4.025M Key Stat: Since his debut on April 27th, 2016, only 11 MLB pitchers have logged more innings than Berríos. Arbitration Salary Estimates: TD: $7.5M | MLBTR: $7.5M The Lowdown: Durability has been Berríos' calling card as an MLB starter, and it shined through again in 2020 as he made a team-leading 12 starts. He took a bit of a step backward performance-wise (4.00 ERA and 1.32 WHIP were both the highest since his rookie year in 2016), but not enough to prevent him from getting a hefty raise. With free agency approaching at the end of 2022, the Twins are running out of leverage in extension talks, but they've had a hard time finding traction in those discussions during the past couple winters. Byron Buxton, CF Year 3 of 4 in Arbitration 2020 Salary: $3.075M Key Stat: Since start of 2018, Twins are 102-52 (.662) with Buxton, and 113-117 (.491) without. Arbitration Salary Estimates: TD: $6M | MLBTR: $5.9M The Lowdown: Durability has ... not been Buxton's calling card. He's been one of the biggest difference-makers in the game when on the field over the past three years, but has missed about 60% of the team's games during that span. The 2020 season, like most others, ended with Buxton injured and unable to play. This both diminishes his earning power in arbitration, and complicates the long-term picture. Can the Twins afford to go all-in on him when he has so consistently proven unable to stay healthy? Will his injury history make him more open to the security of a contract extension? Taylor Rogers, RP Year 3 of 4 in Arbitration 2020 Salary: $4.45M Key Stat: In 2018 & 2019, ranked 4th among MLB relievers in fWAR and 6th in WPA. In 2020, ranked 33rd and 169th (out of 173). Arbitration Salary Estimates: TD: $7M | MLBTR: $6.9M The Lowdown: For several years, Rogers was as good as it gets. He was a shutdown bullpen reliever, and essentially match-up proof, consistently coming through in the clutch to rank as one of the game's best high-leverage performers. In late 2019, that started to change, and this year the negative trend continued. His 2020 numbers weren't all that bad, on the surface – 4.05 ERA, 2.84 FIP, 6.00 K/BB ratio, just two home runs allowed – but Rogers was not a dependable back-end arm. And while there's a good chance he bounces back, the pricetag of around $7 million is quite high, especially with the Twins (probably) scaling back payroll and looking for cost savings. Eddie Rosario, LF Year 3 of 3 in Arbitration 2020 Salary: $7.75M Key Stat: Ranks 98th out of 128 qualified MLB players in fWAR since start of 2019. Arbitration Salary Estimates: TD: $10M | MLBTR: $12.9M The Lowdown: We were a little more conservative on Rosario's salary estimate than MLBTR, who foresees him making nearly $13 million in his final year of arbitration. At either number, it's going to be tough to justify keeping Rosario around. While he's been a reliable source of home runs and RBIs, he rates as a roughly average player overall, with poor defense and declining speed offsetting much of the (checkered) value he offers at the plate. Given the presence of multiple cheap replacement options – including Alex Kirilloff, who successfully debuted in the playoffs – it's tough to imagine the Twins keeping Rosario around ... unless they can non-tender him and reach agreement on a lower number. Would you keep Rosario and/or Rogers around at the heightened price tags? Where do you stand with the other arbitration-eligible players and contract extension candidates? Weigh in below. ~~~ You can tune into the next Offseason Live broadcast via Twins Daily's Twitter, Facebook, or YouTube page. It'll be an interactive show where viewers help steer the conversation via comments and questions. You'll also be able to watch the replay tomorrow here on the site, or via audio by subscribing to our podcast. In the meantime, check out previous episodes of Offseason Live and see what's upcoming: Ep 1: (Thurs, 10/8) Ep 2: (Tues, 10/13) Ep 3: (Thurs, 10/15) Ep 4: (Tues, 10/20) Ep 5: Free Agency – Catchers & Infield (Thurs, 10/22) Ep 6: Free Agency – Outfield & DH (Tues, 10/27) Ep 7: Free Agency – Starting Pitchers (Thurs, 10/29) Ep 8: Free Agency – Relief Pitchers (Thurs, 11/5) Ep 9: Twins Trade Targets (Tues, 11/10) Ep 10: Offseason Blueprints (Thurs, 11/12) MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

I was joined via live-stream by Matt Braun and Matthew Trueblood on Tuesday at 8:00 PM as we broke down the situations for each of Minnesota's eight (or nine) arbitration-eligible players, including their longtime left fielder and closer. Watch it below: You can tune into future live broadcasts via Twins Daily's Twitter, Facebook, or YouTube page. It's an interactive show where viewers help steer the conversation via comments and questions. You can also catch any episodes you miss via audio by subscribing to our podcast. Check out previous episodes of Offseason Live and see what's upcoming: Ep 1: (Thurs, 10/8) Ep 2: (Tues, 10/13) Ep 3: (Thurs, 10/15) Ep 4: (Tues, 10/20) Ep 5: Free Agency – Catchers & Infield (Thurs, 10/22) Ep 6: Free Agency – Outfield & DH (Tues, 10/27) Ep 7: Free Agency – Starting Pitchers (Thurs, 10/29) Ep 8: Free Agency – Relief Pitchers (Thurs, 11/5) Ep 9: Twins Trade Targets (Tues, 11/10) Ep 10: Offseason Blueprints (Thurs, 11/12)

On Thursday night's episode of Offseason Live, I chatted with fellow Twins Daily writers Matthew Taylor and David Youngs about the players hitting free agency this winter. The Twins are facing the prospect of losing eight players to the market, or possibly nine, depending on what they decide to do with Sergio Romo's team option. You can watch the episode below, or scroll down for a quick overview of the nine players in question, their situations, and a key stat to keep in mind for each. Feel free to share your opinions on who should stay or go in the comments. Sergio Romo, RP 2020 Stats: 20 IP, 4.05 ERA, 4.34 FIP, 1.15 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 The Situation: The Twins traded for Romo at the 2019 deadline as a pending free agent, and then brought him back last winter on a one-year deal with a $5 million option for 2021. Activating that option seemed like a no-brainer midway through the season, as he was dominating with his slider and siphoning save opportunities from Taylor Rogers, but Romo faltered down the stretch and in the playoffs. He turns 38 in March, and $5 million is a pretty penny for a relief pitcher if you don't think he'll be a major asset. Declining Romo's option would give the Twins more flexibility to try and retain the following players. Key Stat: 1.03 WHIP and 10.4 K/9 in 51 appearances with Twins Alex Avila, C 2020 Stats: 62 PA, .184/.355/.286, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 0.2 fWAR The Situation: The Twins tabbed Avila as Mitch Garver's backup last offseason, signing him to a one-year deal worth $4.75 million. The veteran ended up playing a fairly minor role for the Twins, accruing only 30% of PAs among catchers, and he didn't hit a lick. That said, he was reliable defensively and his .355 OBP tied for fourth-best on the team (50+ PA). If the Twins want to carry three catchers in 2021, they could do a lot worse than bringing Avila back on a cheap one-year deal. Key Stat: Started 19 of 63 games (including playoffs) for Twins and batted .184 Ehire Adrianza, UTIL 2020 Stats: 101 PA, .191/.287/.270, 0 HR, 3 RBI, -0.1 fWAR The Situation: Adrianza heads into free agency for the first time with a thud. He seemed to be shaking his rep as a no-hit utilityman over three seasons in Minnesota, posting a respectable .260/.321/.391 slash line from 2017 through 2019 and enjoying a career year in the latter (.765 OPS). But Adrianza fell apart at the plate in a 2020 season where he appeared in 44 of the team's 60 games. The 31-year-old may struggle to find a major-league league deal, though his ability to play a quality shortstop is a differentiating strength. Key Stat: Career-low .557 OPS in 2020 Marwin Gonzalez, UTIL 2020 Stats: 199 PA, .211/.286/.320, 5 HR, 22 RBI, 0.2 fWAR The Situation: Playing out the last year of his two-year, $21 million contract with the Twins, Gonzalez was an all-out disaster in 2020. Injuries forced the team to lean on him heavily – he started 51 of 60 games, and ranked fifth on the team in PAs – but he let them down in a big way, grading as one of the worst regulars in all of baseball. He turns 32 in March, has seen his OPS+ drop in three consecutive seasons, and his athleticism is rapidly declining (his sprint speed has fallen from the 39th to 27th to 20th percentile). Add in the taint of involvement with the cheating Astros, and it seems very unlikely Gonzalez will have a remotely welcoming offseason market. Key Stat: Ranked 137th out of 142 qualified MLB players in OPS in 2020 Tyler Clippard, RP 2020 Stats: 26 IP, 2.77 ERA, 2.65 FIP, 0.89 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 1.4 BB/9 The Situation: Signed to a $2.75 million deal last offseason, Clippard was an unheralded hero of the Twins bullpen. He led all relievers in innings, started two games as opener, finished another, and was altogether an incredibly versatile and reliable arm. Minnesota signed him to be a weapon against lefties, and he was, but he also shut down right-handed hitters. Given the valuable role he played on this year's club, Clippard would seemingly be very appealing to the Twins (and other teams) on a similar contract. Key Stat: Held LH batters to .213 average (.479 OPS) in 2020. Held RH batters to .191 average (.607 OPS). Trevor May, RP 2020 Stats: 23.1 IP, 3.86 ERA, 3.62 FIP, 1.16 WHIP, 14.7 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 The Situation: In his career as a reliever, May has averaged 12.0 K/9 with a 3.49 ERA over 188 ⅓ innings. He's one of the best strikeout pitchers in the league, and in 2019 he set new personal records for strikeout rate, whiff rate, and fastball velocity. His proneness to home runs (five allowed in 23 ⅓ frames) was the lone blemish on a remarkably dominant season out of the bullpen. A top-tier power arm hitting his stride just as he hits free agency at 31, May is likely to be in high demand. Can the Twins afford to keep him around? ... Can they afford not to? Key Stat: His career 10.5 K/9 rate is 2nd-highest in Twins history (min. 300 IP), behind Joe Nathan Rich Hill, SP 2020 Stats: 38.2 IP, 3.03 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 4.0 BB/9 The Situation: At times, it looked like Hill might not have it anymore. The Twins knew they were gambling on the left-hander, who signed an incentive-laden one-year contract coming off elbow surgery at age 40. He had his rough patches. His control worsened, his strikeout and whiff rates plummeted, and at one point his shoulder acted up. But by the time September rolled around, Hill had rounded into form, looking every bit like the gritty difference-maker of repute. Whether he can do it again, at age 41 in what figures to be a more full-length season, is very much an open question. Key Stat: In 4 September starts, posted 2.38 ERA and .190 BAA Jake Odorizzi, SP 2020 Stats: 13.2 IP, 6.59 ERA, 6.12 FIP, 7.9 K/9, 2.0 BB/9 The Situation: Returning to the Twins after accepting a qualifying offer for $17.8 million a year ago, the 2020 season was a complete wash for Odorizzi. He opened on the Injured List, and saw two attempted comebacks stymied by misfortune: first, a line drive to the ribs, and then a bloody blister opened on his finger. His ability and talent have been plain to see when healthy, but it's going to be hard for Odorizzi to command what he probably deserves coming off a lost season. If the Twins can find a sensible way to bring him back, he'd be a hell of a fourth starter. Key Stat: Holds lowest overall FIP (3.88) of any Twins SP since 2011 Nelson Cruz, DH 2020 Stats: 214 PA, .303/.397/.595, 16 HR, 33 RBI, 2.0 fWAR The Situation: He's been the Twins' best hitter for two years running, and one of the most feared hitters in the major leagues. He's also a clubhouse leader and beloved teammate, credited for helping players around him develop and mature. The thought of losing Cruz is tough, but he'll turn 41 next summer and historically, performance drop-offs have hit rapidly and without warning for players at this age. He also figures to have a fairly favorable offseason market, with the universal DH doubling his potential suitors. If the Twins have ~$30 million to spend this offseason (as our ballparked) can they afford to spend half of it on Cruz with other needs to address? Key Stat: 57 HR and 141 RBIs in 173 games with Twins Offseason Live Schedule Ep 1: (Thurs, 10/8) Ep 2: (Tues, 10/13) Ep 3: (Thurs, 10/15) Ep 4: Twins Arbitration Decisions (Tues, 10/20) Ep 5: Free Agency – Catchers & Infield (Thurs, 10/22) Ep 6: Free Agency – Outfield & DH (Tues, 10/27) Ep 7: Free Agency – Starting Pitchers (Thurs, 10/29) Ep 8: Free Agency – Relief Pitchers (Thurs, 11/5) Ep 9: Twins Trade Targets (Tues, 11/10) Ep 10: Offseason Blueprints (Thurs, 11/12) Follow us on social media to catch the live shows (they're broadcast via Twitter, Facebook, and YouTube) and subscribe to our podcast to receive the audio versions of any episodes you miss. We'll also be featuring the content and embedding the videos in articles here on the site. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

Nelson Cruz looked like the runaway winner of this award for much of the season. In fact, at times he looked like a serious contender for AL MVP. Ultimately, he came up just short of Maeda, earning 95 points to Kenta's 99 in our balloting. Across 23 panelists, Cruz earned eight first-place votes compared to 13 for Maeda. It was close, but the choice was clear. Maeda was not only the team's best pitcher (and, according to Twitter, also the pick for most improved). He was their best player. Let's break down the numbers: According to FanGraphs' version of the Wins Above Replacement metric (fWAR), Maeda led all Twins players at 2.1, though Cruz narrowly trailed him at 2.0. Maeda's career-high for fWAR came as a rookie, when he put up a 2.9 mark over 32 starts. If you project this year's 2.1 over that many starts, you get 6.2, which would put full-season Maeda in the category of 2014 Phil Hughes and 2006 Johan Santana. According to Win Probability Added, Maeda was the greatest quantifiable single contributor in Minnesota's division-winning season. His WPA of 1.96 towers over all teammates (Max Kepler finished a distant second at 1.17). Only six MLB starting pitchers posted a higher WPA than Maeda. Baseball Reference's WAR measurement (bWAR) actually has Maeda tied with Cruz for second on the team at 1.6 – both behind the leader Byron Buxton (1.9). Buxton did finish third in our balloting with 77 points, and he received a couple of first-place votes. Maeda only played every fifth game, which would be the knock against him in a Most Valuable Player context, but he rose to the occasion every single time out, making an outsized impact. He never allowed more than three runs or six baserunners in a start, and the Twins went 8-3 in his 11 turns. He set a new franchise record for consecutive strikeouts in a game, flirted with a no-hitter, and paced all of baseball in WHIP. He led all Twins pitchers in innings but issued only 10 walks, and never hit a batter or uncorked a wild pitch. He delivered bigtime in Game 1 of the playoffs with five shutout innings – the finest effort from a Twins pitcher in the postseason since Johan's departure. If the argument against Maeda as team MVP is that his contribution was incomplete, compared to an "everyday player," then that same argument must be applied to his competition for the award. Cruz was a designated hitter who offered zero defensive value. Buxton missed more than a third of the team's games. While the bullpen was a crux of Minnesota's success, no reliever threw more than 26 innings. The bottom line is that Maeda was everything the Twins needed: a bona fide ace, a successful Game 1 postseason starter, and a premium arm brandishing elite swing-and-miss stuff atop the rotation. OTHER CANDIDATES Cruz had a tremendous year and that cannot be downplayed. He was a very close second in our balloting after slashing .303/.397/.595 with 16 home runs in 53 games as Twins DH. Buxton checks in third – he was pretty clearly the biggest individual difference-maker on the team, pound for pound, but his season was once again defined by health impediments. Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario and Tyler Duffey were the others to receive double-digit points in the voting. THE BALLOTS Here’s a look at the ballots from our 23 voters. Seth Stohs: 1) Byron Buxton, 2) Nelson Cruz, 3) Kenta Maeda Nick Nelson: 1) Kenta Maeda, 2) Nelson Cruz, 3) Byron Buxton John Bonnes: 1) Kenta Maeda, 2) Max Kepler, 3) Nelson Cruz Tom Froemming: 1) Kenta Maeda, 2) Byron Buxton 3) Nelson Cruz Andrew Gebo: 1) Nelson Cruz, 2) Byron Buxton 3) Kenta Maeda AJ Condon: 1) Kenta Maeda, 2) Byron Buxton, 3) Nelson Cruz Cody Christie: 1) Nelson Cruz, 2) Byron Buxton 3) Kenta Maeda Cody Pirkl: 1) Nelson Cruz, 2) Byron Buxton 3) Kenta Maeda Cooper Carlson: 1) Nelson Cruz, 2) Kenta Maeda, 3) Byron Buxton Jeremy Nygaard: 1) Nelson Cruz, 2) Byron Buxton 3) Kenta Maeda Lucas Seehafer: 1) Kenta Maeda, 2) Byron Buxton, 3) Nelson Cruz Matt Braun: 1) Kenta Maeda, 2) Nelson Cruz, 3) Byron Buxton Matt Lenz: 1) Kenta Maeda, 2) Byron Buxton 3) Nelson Cruz Matthew Taylor: 1) Kenta Maeda, 2) Nelson Cruz, 3) Byron Buxton Matthew Trueblood: 1) Kenta Maeda, 2) Nelson Cruz, 3) Tyler Duffey Nash Walker: 1) Kenta Maeda, 2) Nelson Cruz, 3) Byron Buxton Nate Palmer: 1) Nelson Cruz, 2) Kenta Maeda, 3) Byron Buxton Patrick Wozniak: 1) Nelson Cruz, 2) Kenta Maeda, 3) Byron Buxton Derek Wetmore: 1) Kenta Maeda, 2) Nelson Cruz, 3) Byron Buxton Steve Lein: 1) Kenta Maeda, 2) Byron Buxton, 3) Nelson Cruz Renabanena: 1) Kenta Maeda, 2) Nelson Cruz, 3) Matt Wisler Ted Schwerzler: 1) Nelson Cruz, 2) Kenta Maeda, 3) Byron Buxton Thiéres Rabelo: 1) Byron Buxton, 2) Nelson Cruz, 3) Kenta Maeda POINTS Kenta Maeda: 99 Nelson Cruz: 95 Byron Buxton: 77 Eddie Rosario: 24 Max Kepler: 16 Tyler Duffey: 14 Josh Donaldson: 5 José Berríos: 5 Matt Wisler: 4 Michael Pineda: 3 Ryan Jeffers: 2 Tyler Clippard: 1 Randy Dobnak: 1 Previous Twins Daily MVP Winners 2015: Brian Dozier 2016: Brian Dozier 2017: Brian Dozier 2018: Eddie Rosario 2019: Max Kepler MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

Which players have we seen for the last time in a Twins uniform? Watch the show below to see us break it down. You can catch these broadcasts live on Tuesday and Thursday nights via Twins Daily's Twitter, Facebook, or YouTube page. You'll also always be able to watch the replay tomorrow here on the site, or via audio by subscribing to our podcast.

There is always much to learn for a rookie first entering the big-league ranks, but it's a steeper curve for catchers. They not only participate in games, but are essentially asked to run them. Catchers must signal for and interact with every pitch, and (as framing metrics illuminate) they can impact game outcomes in deeply subtle ways. Mix in the circumstances that surrounded Jeffers when he joined the Twins in mid-August, and the crash course grows all the more daunting. Think about it: replacing a reigning Silver Slugger (and former Twins Daily Rookie of the Year), on a team battling for first place, with championship aspirations, amidst a sprint of a season just five weeks away from ending. Jeffers had to gel with a new pitching staff, acclimate to major-league competition, and perform at an extremely high level, despite the lack of any opportunity to sharpen up in minor-league games. It's a great deal to ask of a 23-year-old who had played 167 games in the minors since being drafted in 2018, including just 24 above Single-A. Jeffers was up to the task. IMMEDIATE IMPACT For some context, Mitch Garver had played 508 games in the minors before he debuted in the big leagues. Even Joe Mauer, who rocketed through the Twins system as a No. 1 overall draft pick and No. 1 overall prospect, played 277 games in the minors before first reaching the Show. Jeffers, a former second-round pick out of UNC-Wilmington, was barely two years removed from being drafted when the Twins called him over from St. Paul's alternate site on August 20th. The front office's decision to tab him as replacement for an injured Garver was somewhat surprising, given the availability of a familiar and experienced option in Willians Astudillo. But it wasn't THAT surprising, if you've ever heard Twins people sing Jeffers' praises. The young backstop wasted no time making his presence felt. He started in the first game after he was called up, and delivered a go-ahead RBI single in his first MLB at-bat. From that point forward, Jeffers was a mainstay. A DEPENDABLE WORKHORSE After Jeffers was called up, Garver made only 21 more plate appearances, the same number as Alex Avila. Minnesota's veteran backstop depth evaporated halfway through the campaign, making Jeffers an absolutely vital asset. He started 18 of the team's final 35 games behind the plate following his promotion, including nine out of 13 at one point while Garver was sidelined and Avila was hampered. Through it all, Jeffers gained confidence from the pitching staff while proving a reliable battery partner. In 162 innings behind the plate, he was charged with zero errors and only one past ball. Not only did he grade out well defensively according to these traditional statistics, but by advanced metrics as well. Statcast him had as a 90th percentile pitch-framer, and Baseball Prospectus' FRAA pegged him as above-average. Granted, this is all based on a small sample, but it jibes with the rep on Jeffers from the minors, and what we saw with our own eyes as he smoothly received pitches and stole strikes consistently. For his part, Jeffers takes a lot of pride in this aspect of his game. "Every pitch is an opportunity for me to change the count," he told our Seth Stohs in a recognizing him as Rookie of the Year. "I love making a hitter mad." Offensively, Jeffers was more solid than spectacular, but that's still an accomplishment on its own from a rookie who specialized in defense behind the plate. He slashed .273/.355/.436 with three home runs in 62 plate appearances, posting a .791 OPS that ranked fifth on the team among players with 50+ PA. The only higher finishers: Nelson Cruz, Byron Buxton, Josh Donaldson, Eddie Rosario. There was nothing fluky about the rookie catcher's production. He showed excellent discipline, and an ability to crush his pitch. Jeffers generated a Barrel % of 13.9%, higher than any qualified Twin other than Miguel Sanó and Cruz. His average exit velocity was above all teammates save for Sanó, Donaldson, and Garver. Jeffers swung at only 26.7% of pitches outside the zone, which is significantly better than average, and lower than all Twins except LaMonte Wade Jr., Donaldson, Garver, and Avila. On both sides of the ball, Jeffers look like a comfortably seasoned MLB veteran. For that reason, he was our pick for Twins Rookie of the Year – but only by the slimmest of margins. OTHER CANDIDATES As you can see in the ballot results below, Jeffers actually received fewer first-place votes than Randy Dobnak (12-to-9) but managed to narrowly edge him in overall points, 50-to-48. That's about as close as it gets. (Twitter was a little more decisive.) Either one would've been deserving. Why did Jeffers get the nod? https://twitter.com/twinsdaily/status/1315403648361476103 Part of it is recency bias, I'm sure. Dobnak was sensational over the first half, and on a legitimate AL Rookie of the Year path, but his play cratered after that and he was in the minors when the regular season concluded. Jeffers, meanwhile, came along right around the time Dobnak dropped off. He was a fixture the rest of the way and into the playoffs. There's also the fact that, unlike Jeffers, Dobnak wasn't an entirely new commodity. We'd already seen him look great over 28 innings in 2019. Novelty makes an impression. But really, speaking as a Jeffers-first voter, I think it comes down to this: While Dobnak ended up having a good year in a year where many pitchers had good years – on the Twins, and across the Central divisions generally – Jeffers came up and outperformed most others in a lackluster lineup. His comparative edge in OPS+ (118) to Dobnak's ERA+ (108) is telling. And, while Dobnak's performance may have been above-average on balance, there's no downplaying the extreme and dramatic plunge that stamped his ticket. It doesn't negate his outstanding early performance, but it does cast serious doubt on the sustainability. Others who deservingly received votes: Jorge Alcala, Brent Rooker, and Cody Stashak. (Had we polled people after the playoff series, Alex Kirilloff might've received a down-ballot vote or two.) THE BALLOTS Here’s a look at the ballots from our 23 voters. Seth Stohs: 1) Randy Dobnak, 2) Ryan Jeffers, 3) Jorge Alcala Nick Nelson: 1) Ryan Jeffers, 2) Jorge Alcala, 3) Randy Dobnak John Bonnes: 1) Randy Dobnak, 2) Ryan Jeffers, 3) Jorge Alcala Tom Froemming: 1) Randy Dobnak, 2) Ryan Jeffers, 3) Jorge Alcala Andrew Gebo: 1) Ryan Jeffers, 2) Jorge Alcala, 3) Randy Dobnak AJ Condon: 1) Ryan Jeffers, 2) Jorge Alcala, 3) Brent Rooker Cody Christie: 1) Ryan Jeffers, 2) Randy Dobnak, 3) Jorge Alcala Cody Pirkl: 1) Randy Dobnak, 2) Jorge Alcala, 3) Ryan Jeffers Cooper Carlson: 1) Randy Dobnak, 2) Ryan Jeffers, 3) Jorge Alcala Jeremy Nygaard: 1) Jorge Alcala, 2) Randy Dobnak, 3) Ryan Jeffers Lucas Seehafer: 1) Randy Dobnak, 2) Jorge Alcala, 3) Ryan Jeffers Matt Braun: 1) Randy Dobnak, 2) Ryan Jeffers, 3) Cody Stashak Matt Lenz: 1) Ryan Jeffers, 2) Jorge Alcala, 3) Cody Stashak Matthew Taylor: 1) Randy Dobnak, 2) Ryan Jeffers, 3) Jorge Alcala Matthew Trueblood: 1) Ryan Jeffers, 2) Randy Dobnak, 3) Jorge Alcala Nash Walker: 1) Ryan Jeffers, 2) Randy Dobnak, 3) Jorge Alcala Nate Palmer: 1) Ryan Jeffers, 2) Randy Dobnak, 3) Brent Rooker Patrick Wozniak: 1) Randy Dobnak, 2) Ryan Jeffers, 3) Jorge Alcala Derek Wetmore: 1) Randy Dobnak, 2) Ryan Jeffers, 3) Jorge Alcala Steve Lein: 1) Randy Dobnak, 2) Ryan Jeffers, 3) Jorge Alcala Renabanena: 1) Randy Dobnak, 2) Jorge Alcala, 3) Ryan Jeffers Ted Schwerzler: 1) Ryan Jeffers, 2) Jorge Alcala, 3) Brent Rooker Thiéres Rabelo: 1) Jorge Alcala, 2) Randy Dobnak, 3) Ryan Jeffers POINTS Ryan Jeffers: 50 Randy Dobnak: 48 Jorge Alcala: 35 Brent Rooker: 3 Cody Stashak: 2 How would your ballot look? Leave a comment and make your case. Previous Twins Daily Rookie of the Year Winners 2015: Miguel Sano 2016: Max Kepler 2017: Trevor Hildenberger 2018: Mitch Garver 2019: Luis Arráez

Kenta Maeda led the Twins in innings with 66 ⅔, but issued only 10 walks with zero hit-by-pitches and zero wild pitches. Maeda's control was fairly mediocre over the past two seasons in Los Angeles (3.0 BB/9), and worse as a starter than as a reliever, which might've been among reasons the Dodgers were open to moving on. The right-hander turned a corner in 2020, joining the league's elite with a 1.35 BB/9 rate that ranked fourth among all MLB starters. Maeda chopped his baseline BB percentage in half, going from 8.1% in 2018 and 8.2% in 2019 to 4.0% in his first year with the Twins. He walked one or zero batters in nine of his 11 regular-season starts, and held opponents to a ridiculous .202 on-base percentage overall. Over the course of his career he hasn't been especially prone to HBPs (one every 27 innings) or wild pitches (one every 39 innings) but we've seen neither from him in a Twins uniform. Maeda was executing on the hill from start to finish in 2020. Opponents batted .167 and slugged .231 against José Berríos' curveball. The curve has always been crucial to Berríos' arsenal, and now more than ever. This season was the first time he threw it more than any other pitch, and his results with it were better than ever. In 84 plate appearances ending in a curveball this year, Berríos allowed only two doubles and one home run. His curve produced the lowest wOBA (.205) and second-lowest average exit velocity (84.0 MPH) of any pitch during any season in his career. It also produced the highest putaway rate (26.9%), meaning he was able to complete a strikeout more than one out of every four times he threw the pitch with two strikes. In the past, Berríos' curveball has generally been quite effective but he's been susceptible to hanging it here and there. He gave up 10 home runs on curveballs in each of the past two years. The 2020 season saw him executing the offering better than ever before, and that's an excellent sign heading into his age 27 season. (The flip side is that Berríos' fastball was far worse than it's ever been – opponents batted .345 and slugged .709 against the righty's four-seamer. Fixing that will be a clear priority for him in 2021.) Michael Pineda allowed zero home runs in 26 ⅔ over five starts. Prior to joining the Minnesota Twins, Pineda was one of the most homer-prone starting pitchers in baseball. From 2015 through 2017, his 1.4 HR/9 rate ranked 12th-highest among qualified starters. He posted the same mark in his first year as a Twin, surrendering 23 long balls across 26 starts in 2019. However, it bears noting that 14 of those home runs came in his first 10 starts. During his final 16 turns last year, Pineda gave up only nine homers, and in his five starts in 2020, he didn't give up a single one. It appears that Pineda has managed to mitigate his biggest weakness. And when he's keeping the ball in the yard, he's a tremendously effective pitcher. In those past 21 starts where he has allowed only nine home runs, he has a 3.23 ERA and 9-2 record. The Twins have gone 16-5 in those games. With Pineda under contract for one more season at a highly reasonable $10 million, the Twins can feel confident taking the field behind him, as well as the other two members of this outstanding rotation-fronting trio. Whatever moves Minnesota makes to improve the starting pitching corps this winter, they'll be building upon a clear strength. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

Faithful readers and community members may have noticed that for the first time in more than a decade, we're not publishing an Offseason Handbook this year. It's a bummer, because we always love putting that passion project together, but everyone around here had their hands too full to give it the effort it deserved here in the chaos of 2020. There's also this: more than any time in memory, we simply have no idea what to expect in the coming months. That doesn't mean we aren't gonna break it down and discuss this offseason from every angle. And you'll be able to consume it in whatever format you prefer: interactive live shows, videos, podcasts, and of course written content here on the site. Offseason Live is a 10+ part series of live-streamed shows, where Twins Daily writers will discuss critical topics relating to the team's planning and strategy — payroll, arbitration, free agents, trades — on Tuesday and Thursday nights as Hot Stove season fires up. (We expect there will be more episodes after that, based on timely milestones and big news.) You can find an initial schedule below. But first, take our first episode for a spin. Last night, I hosted a game of Offseason Jeopardy and was joined by contestants Andrew Gebo, Matthew Taylor and Nash Walker. The three competed to tackle questions on offseason-related questions from our board, and we used each answer as an opportunity to discuss an element of the offseason ahead. (If nothing else, I recommend checking out the absolute magical moment that took place around the 43:15 mark.) The idea is for this first episode to serve as an overview, scratching the surface of the topics Offseason Live will be exploring much more robustly in future episodes. Here's a (tentative) look at what's ahead: Ep 1: Twins Offseason Jeopardy! (Thurs, 10/8) Ep 2: Projecting the Twins’ 2021 Payroll (Tues, 10/13) Ep 3: Stay or Go? Twins Impending Free Agents (Thurs, 10/15) Ep 4: Twins Arbitration Decisions (Tues, 10/20) Ep 5: Free Agency – Catchers & Infield (Thurs, 10/22) Ep 6: Free Agency – Outfield & DH (Tues, 10/27) Ep 7: Free Agency – Starting Pitchers (Thurs, 10/29) Ep 8: Free Agency – Relief Pitchers (Thurs, 11/5) Ep 9: Twins Trade Targets (Tues, 11/10) Ep 10: Offseason Blueprints (Thurs, 11/12) Follow us on social media to catch the live shows (they're broadcast via Twitter, Facebook, and YouTube) and subscribe to our podcast to receive the audio versions of any episodes you miss. We'll also be featuring the content and embedding the videos in articles here on the site. This is going to be a strange but exciting winter for the Twins and baseball. We're eager to take the journey with you and deliver coverage that is deeper and more expansive than ever before. The offseason is nearly here. Let's do it live. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

1: Will fans be back at at Target Field in 2021? In some ways, this question is more pertinent to fans like myself than it is to the team. I missed seeing games at Target Field this year, and I know I'm not alone. Summer isn't the same without regular trips to the ballpark. I dread the idea of another one stripped of this cherished staple. But, it's also a legitimate factor for the Twins and their planning. The reality is that if ownership and the front office are anticipating another season of no fans in the stands, or severely diminished capacity, it's going to affect revenue expectations. And that is going to impact spending. We'd all like to hope and believe that 2021 will bring a return to normalcy, or something close. But the sad fact is that right now, there is no specific reason to think that'll happen. The world, and especially our country, have a lot of progress to make before packed outdoor venues are a plausible scenario. And, suddenly, spring training is less than five months away. Another key question that falls under the same largely uncontrollable pandemic-related scope: will there be minor league baseball (at least as we've come to know it)? 2: Will Nelson Cruz return? Should he? The Twins have a number of major decisions to make on players, but none loom larger than this one. Cruz has been the heart of this team. He was named Twins Most Valuable Player last year, and was a top 10 finisher for AL MVP. Both will likely be true again this year. Cruz is without question the foremost clubhouse leader, and the outward face of the franchise. (Did you happen to see any MLB postseason promo relating to the Twins?) While some might not like to hear it, there is a fairly good chance the Boomstick is not back in 2021. If it were simply a matter of picking up a reasonably-priced team option, as was the case last year, this would be a no-brainer: he'd be back. But that's not the case. Cruz is hitting the open market as a free agent, and his suitors have doubled since last time around via the universal DH. Minnesota will have far more competition for his services, especially after he put together two of the best seasons of his career here. Cruz indicated in mid-September that he hoped to stay with the Twins, but was angling for a multi-year contract. The good news is that it's now a little hard to envision him getting a guaranteed two-year deal, but the bad news is that — for the very same reason — the Twins may shy away from a competitive bidding war. As incredible and elite as Cruz looked for the vast majority of his time here, he is at an age where baseball players can lose it very quickly. And in the final weeks of the 2020 season, the 40-year-old started to look his age in a hurry. After participating in both ends of a doubleheader on September 8th, Cruz hit .154/.267/.256 with one home run, one double, and two RBIs in his final 11 games. And while he was the team's sole source of offense in the playoffs, driving in two runs on two doubles, it wasn't exactly Nelly Takeover Mode as we've come to know it. The versions of Cruz we saw during the opening series in Chicago, and the final series against Houston, were plainly and obviously very different. It's a small sample, of course, but the timing and circumstances make the drop-off impossible to ignore. Minnesota has a number of young hitters looking for opportunities, and no shortage of bats they could theoretically rotate through the DH spot next year. The front office will have to deliberate on just how hard it wants to pursue Cruz this winter. https://twitter.com/AaronGleeman/status/1311708021907693568 3: What is this roster's biggest need? Heading into the offseason a year ago, the Twins' top priorities were fairly well understood: they needed a front-end starting pitcher, and a star-caliber acquisition to build upon their momentum. Many of us assumed those would be one in the same. Instead, Minnesota ended up going two different routes, trading for Kenta Maeda and signing Josh Donaldson. Now, they have already given up one of their premier young talents and committed $23 million over the next three years, for long-term fixtures. When you add in the likelihood of dialed back spending, it's unlikely the Twins will venture quite as far into the aggressive ends of the market this offseason. Besides, it's tough to pinpoint exactly what they need in order to take another step forward. Could they use another high-end starting pitcher? Sure, but it's not the glaring hole it was a year ago. The Twins were one of the best pitching teams in the league, and their starters were lights-out against Houston. I'd trust Maeda, José Berríos and Michael Pineda — all due back in '21 — as my top three in the rotation once again. The lineup underperformed, but there aren't obvious opportunities to resurrect it through offseason tinkering. Mainly they just need guys to stay healthy and get back to producing. I don't know that any starting position player is likely to be replaced from this year's (albeit rarely seen) optimal lineup, with the possible exception of Eddie Rosario. Bench depth, bullpen arms, back-end starters ... all areas that the Twins are likely to address. But as of now, it isn't clear where they would aim to make a true impact addition. 4: Should Edgar Varela be back as hitting coach? There's no way around it: Every Twins hitter took a significant step back in 2020, with performances ranging between mildly disappointing and confidence-shattering. The team's OPS dropped by nearly 100 points. Several mainstays never managed to navigate out of season-long slumps, and in the postseason, Houston's pitching picked Minnesota's long-tenured core apart: https://twitter.com/NickNelsonMN/status/1311430180745949184 What has changed since last year? Well, in a sense, everything. (And that really should be taken into account when assessing anybody's struggles.) But when it comes strictly to the Twins and baseball, we know this: heralded hitting coach James Rowson was fished away by Miami last winter, and replaced by a relatively unknown commodity in Edgar Varela. To what extent were the offense's shortcomings attributable to this change? Personally, I have a hard time believing it's a very significant factor. But in a results-based business, Varela could be vulnerable. Assistant hitting coach Rudy Hernandez might also be on the hot seat, though that seems less likely since he was also here for the 2019 bash-fest. 5: What strategy will drive the Twins forward? This really is the ultimate question. A forum thread here at Twins Daily the other day put it well: Should the team reload, retool, or rebuild? Those three words represent very different paths, and there's an argument to be made for each. On the one hand, this has been a .600+ team over the past two seasons, winning back-to-back division championships. The Twins have the ability to keep things mostly intact if they choose to do so. It's just not a given that they will. Those aforementioned core pieces who came out flat, again, in the playoffs – Kepler, Sanó, Rosario, Polanco? They're all holdovers from the previous regime. So is Byron Buxton, whose game-changing ability on the field is as undeniable as his inability to stay on it. Not to mention Taylor Rogers, who hasn't been a consistently effective reliever since the 2019 All-Star break. To what extent is the Twins front office, under Derek Falvey and Thad Levine, committed to sticking with this group, which has yet to produce a postseason victory in about half a decade of playing together? Falvey and Levine have already begun to filter in some of their own hand-picked pieces, like Ryan Jeffers and Brent Rooker and (most recently) Alex Kirilloff. There are more on the way. Would the Twins consider shipping out ostensible building blocks they inherited, in order to create paths for their own guys? It really comes down to the big-picture strategy. Either the Twins are going to stay the course, making minor moves on the fringes and hoping it all comes together for this (clearly capable) nucleus, or shake things up in a big way. That choice will dictate items two through four on this list, and it could well be dictated by the first one. If the Twins see an unfavorable economic outlook on the horizon, and want to take a more frugal approach in 2021 – giving Cruz's at-bats to the up-and-comers, passing on major offseason additions, allowing Varela more time to settle in as hitting instructor – that can all be explained reasonably. It wouldn't be a bad strategy on its own merits, financial implications aside. At the same time, this current team has played at a 100-win pace over a long period, and the postseason sample – while utterly gut-wrenching – is minuscule. There's also evidence that almost every regular was hampered by injury as things unraveled (although, this recurrent theme is not exactly a point in favor of the status quo). As Falvey himself put it, the Twins have some "soul-searching" to do, and they'll need to do it while swimming through an ocean of unknowns. What to expect in 2021? What to expect in December? What to expect next week? It's going to be an interesting several months ahead. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email