Nick Nelson

This is a very valid argument, and it's one I had with myself quite a bit while compiling the rankings. Everything you mentioned is a very legitimate knock against his case. In my initial pass, Rooker didn't make the cut. Here's why I eventually changed my mind: I think really highly of Rooker's offensive upside. More highly than most probably. I see his power as being a notch above most good slugging prospects, and see him developing pretty decent patience down the line. Once he reaches full form, I don't think we'll be viewing him as the kinda talent you can go out and find readily. I also look at the Twins' situation specifically. They do have an ostensible glut of bat-first corner defenders, but when you look at their established RH bats? Sano, Donaldson, Buxton, Garver. All have proven to be injury prone, and all are getting expensive and/or closer to free agency. Rooker is the only developed righty hitter providing depth behind them so I see that as a bit of a value booster as well.

As we kick off our countdown of the Minnesota Twins' top 20 player assets, this first batch features a little of everything: from a raw and unproven teenaged prospect to a highly paid MVP-winning veteran. Let us begin.First, you can get up to speed on the 'why and how' behind these rankings by reading Monday's introductory post. If you're already hip, proceed to find my choices (and reasoning) for the 16th-through-20th most valuable assets under Minnesota's control as 2021 gets underway. 20. Keoni Cavaco, SS 2020 Ranking: NR The 20th spot in these rankings is one I always wrestle with most. There are so many different players with good arguments to appear on the list; this selection becomes a battle between many semi-critical assets, whose competing qualities are fundamental to this exercise. Which is more indispensable to the Twins' plans: a proven MLB commodity with a relatively low ceiling (i.e. Randy Dobnak, Jake Cave), versus a near-ready prospect with moderate upside (i.e. Travis Blankenhorn, Edwar Colina), versus a more distant and uncertain project with game-changing potential? Ultimately, I landed on the latter, best represented in the system by Keoni Cavaco. No, he hasn't done anything of note as a professional yet, posting a paltry .470 OPS in his first turn at rookie ball in 2019. But the Twins believed in him enough to take him 13th overall – the highest pick this regime has made outside of Royce Lewis (No. 1) in 2017 – because they so value Cavaco's athleticism and long-term ceiling. I have no special insight or information on the 19-year-old, especially coming off a lost minor-league season, but frankly I trust this front office enough to consider him an important part of the big picture going forward. Needless to say, 2021 will be a key year for Cavaco. 19. Brent Rooker, OF/1B 2020 Ranking: NR The former first-round pick reached the majors in 2020, just three years after being drafted, and was exactly as advertised: an advanced bat with big bop, exhibiting no signs of intimidation against MLB pitching. Rooker has factors working against him in the context of this list – namely, a lack of asset scarcity. Big, immobile sluggers who can only play first base and corner outfield are not hard to come by. He also happens to be a bit extreme in the traditional flaws of this profile: a sub-par defender and extremely strikeout prone. But on the flip side (pun intended), his raw power is at the highest end of the spectrum and Rooker shows potential to develop into a reasonably disciplined hitter. Although he only made 21 plate appearances as a rookie before breaking his forearm, he made a strong enough impression to solidify his place in the club's plans going forward. Rooker is inexpensively controllable for years to come. 18. Josh Donaldson, 3B 2020 Ranking: NR Donaldson signed after this list came out last year, so I didn't have to struggle with the challenging task of ranking him as an asset. It goes without saying he would've been higher at that point then he is now. The first year of Donaldson's historic contract was theoretically supposed to deliver the greatest value for the Twins, but was mostly a bust. Now, he's entering his age 35 season with magnified durability concerns, still owed $70 million in guaranteed money over the next three years. In the scope of this discussion, Donaldson's huge salary is a significant drawback, limiting the front office's ability to build around him within payroll constraints. The need to prioritize adding depth behind him, due to his unreliable health, is also a negative. And yet ... to an extent, this is all counterbalanced by the monumental impact he's capable of making. Donaldson is the only former MVP on the roster, and someone who was elite both offensively and defensively just two years ago. He showed signs of being that same player while on the field in 2020. It's possible no other team would take on Donaldson's contract at this moment if they had the chance, which is why he ranks as low as he does here. But his presence will be crucial if Minnesota's is to capitalize on the current championship window. 17. Taylor Rogers, LHP 2020 Ranking: 12 One year ago, Rogers was a top-end closer, set to earn less than $5 million, yet he still didn't crack the top 10 in these rankings. That says a lot about the relative value of relief pitchers, who are – for better or worse – among the game's most fungible assets. (The Twins, having made a habit of letting quality bullpen arms walk, seem to live by this credo.) Rogers is now a year older and closer to free agency, although the Twins still control him for two more seasons. He's also coming off a tough campaign, albeit it a shortened one where his peripherals and underlying indicators remained strong. Set to earn $6 million, he's no longer the clear-cut bargain he once was. The lefty's value has surely dropped but his price isn't unreasonable, all things considered, and he remains an integral piece of this bullpen – especially with Trevor May moving on, and guys like Sergio Romo and Tyler Clippard (for now) out of the picture. 16. Jorge Alcala, RHP 2020 Ranking: NR Like Rogers, Alcala has shown the ability to dominate out of the bullpen. The similarities end there. Whereas Rogers is a polished, experienced, time-tested relief fixture, Alcala is an up-and-comer with a sparse MLB track record. But that track record has yielded a 2.45 ERA and 9.8 K/9 rate in 25 ⅔ innings. The right-hander didn't exactly come out of nowhere. He was a big-ticket international signing by the Astros out of the Dominican Republic in 2014, and was the prospect headliner in a trade that sent Ryan Pressly to Houston in 2018. Though he predictably fizzled out as a starter, Alcala shows all the signs of a quality back-end reliever, and he's under team control for the next five seasons. If he can firmly establish himself as a lights-out setup man or closer in 2021, he'll move up this list. THE TOP 20 TWINS ASSETS OF 2021 20. Keoni Cavaco, SS 19. Brent Rooker, OF/1B 18. Josh Donaldson, 3B 17. Taylor Rogers, LHP 16. Jorge Alcala, RHP 11-15: Coming tomorrow! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

You would argue that 32-year-old Michael Pineda, on a one-year $10 million deal, is more valuable than 26-year-old Jose Berrios on a two-year ~$16 million deal? I would, um, love to hear your case. Dating back to 2017, only 8 pitchers have thrown more innings than Berrios with a better ERA: deGrom, Cole, Greinke, Scherzer, Corbin, Nola, Verlander, Bauer. But yeah... #3 at best...

It's that time again. With the arrival of a new year, we like to take stock of the Twins' organizational talent by revisiting and updating our rankings of the franchise's top 20 player assets. On Tuesday, the countdown begins. Today: an introduction, preview, and look back at past rankings.This will be my fourth time compiling and publishing these rankings, which always publish right around New Year's Day. You can find the previous lists (and some reflections) below, but here are the links if you want to quick-jump to past installments: Top 20 Twins Assets: 2018Top 20 Twins Assets: 2019Top 20 Twins Assets: 2020Here's a breakdown of the methodology and caveats for this exercise:Things that are factored into these rankings: production, age, upside, pedigree, health, length of team control, favorability of contract, positional scarcity (within the system, and generally).Players are people. Their value to the organization, and its fans, goes well beyond the strictly business-like scope we're using here. But for the purposes of this list, we're analyzing solely in terms of asset evaluation. Intangible qualities and popularity are not factors.The idea is to assess players' importance to the future of the Minnesota Twins. In this regard, it's not exactly a ranking in terms of trade value, because that's dependent on another team's situation and needs. (For instance, Jake Cave and LaMonte Wade Jr. would be more valuable to many other teams than they are to the Twins, who are rich with short-term and long-term corner outfield depth.)This is a snapshot in time. Rankings are heavily influenced by recent trends and where things stood as of the end of 2020.Current major-leaguers and prospects are all eligible. The ultimate goal here to answer this question: Which current players in the organization are most indispensable to fulfilling the vision of building a champion?Before we proceed, a note that will hopefully but these rankings in the proper context: Two years ago, I had Fernando Romero ranked as the sixth-most valuable player asset in the Twins organization. Last month, he was released so he could go play in Japan. It's obviously an extreme example, but illustrates a simple reality: these rankings are subjective and timebound. That's what makes them worthy of putting together each year. It's interesting to track the ups and downs, and to debate where different players might fit in or how their stock has changed. You'll see many examples of dramatic rises and falls from the past three years by looking over these previous lists: 2020 20. Ryan Jeffers, C 19. Eddie Rosario, OF 18. Michael Pineda, RHP 17. Nelson Cruz, DH 16. Tyler Duffey, RHP 15. Jake Odorizzi, RHP 14. Trevor Larnach, OF 13. Jhoan Duran, RHP 12. Taylor Rogers, LHP 11. Miguel Sano, 3B 10. Luis Arraez, 2B 9. Alex Kirilloff, OF 8. Jordan Balazovic, RHP 7. Byron Buxton OF 6. Mitch Garver, C 5. Royce Lewis, SS 4. Brusdar Graterol, RHP 3. Jose Berrios, RHP 2. Max Kepler, OF 1. Jorge Polanco, SS 2019 20. Nick Gordon, SS 19. C.J. Cron, 1B 18. Adalberto Mejia, LHP 17. Jake Cave, OF 16. Wander Javier, SS 15. Stephen Gonsalves, LHP 14. Miguel Sano, 3B 13. Kyle Gibson, RHP 12. Trevor May, RHP 11. Mitch Garver, C 10. Taylor Rogers, LHP 9. Max Kepler, OF 8. Eddie Rosario, OF 7. Jorge Polanco, SS 6. Fernando Romero, RHP 5. Brusdar Graterol, RHP 4. Alex Kirilloff, OF 3. Byron Buxton, OF 2. Jose Berrios, RHP 1. Royce Lewis, SS 2018 20. Alex Kirilloff, OF 19. Trevor May, RHP 18. Wander Javier, SS 17. Jason Castro, C 16. Tyler Duffey, RHP 15. Taylor Rogers, LHP 14. Adalberto Mejia, LHP 13. Nick Gordon, SS 12. Fernando Romero, RHP 11. Trevor Hildenberger, RHP 10. Stephen Gonsalves, LHP 9. Ervin Santana, RHP 8. Brian Dozier, 2B 7. Max Kepler, OF 6. Jorge Polanco, SS 5. Eddie Rosario, OF 4. Miguel Sano, 3B 3. Jose Berrios, RHP 2. Royce Lewis, SS 1. Byron Buxton, OF As mentioned, we'll start rolling out the 2021 rankings tomorrow with my choices for Nos. 16-through-20. But first, I thought I'd muse a bit on the last three years of rankings, and what insights or lessons we might take away from them. The Fall of Rosario In the first edition of these rankings, following the 2017 season, Rosario was pegged as the organization's fifth-best asset. The next year he dropped to eighth, then 19th, and now he's been non-tendered. This reflects broader implications of MLB's compensation system, and how it degrades player asset value en route to the open market. But Rosario also contributed to his own drop, by stagnating if not declining in the midst of his purported prime. Among the top seven players listed in 2018's rankings, Rosario is the only one gone. All others will be in this year's top 20. (Spoiler alert WOMP WOMP.) The Rise (and Departure) of Graterol Brusdar Graterol shows how premium assets can emerge out of nowhere. He wasn't on the 2018 list, and not really even on the radar at that point – an oft-injured teenager who'd thrown zero innings above rookie ball. His meteoric ensuing season launched him to No. 5 on the 2019 list, and in 2020 he moved up a spot to No. 4. Sadly, Graterol is now gone, although I'm guessing he's not so sad about it, World Series ring and all. The Twins took advantage of Graterol's sky-high stock by trading him for another highly valued asset in Kenta Maeda. Maeda is on this year's list. And, not to give anything away, but he's higher than the guy he replaced. Guess you'd call that a win. Steady José Only one player has appeared in the top three for all three years of rankings. That's José Berríos, the top pitching prospect turned good (at last) who continues to prove his worth. The right-hander never quite ascended to bona fide Ace™ status, but has been a consistent top-shelf starter with almost unrivaled durability. He has also been a supreme bargain, though that's finally starting to change as he inches toward free agency. Will the ticking service clock and rising pricetag bump him from his entrenched position in the top three this year? Riding with Buxton and Sanó Had these rankings existed in the five years before I started them, there's no doubt Byron Buxton and Miguel Sanó would've annually ranked near the very top. The Twins framed their entire rebuild around the two centerpieces. Buxton and Sanó were among the franchise's highest-profile amateur acquisitions of all time, and they both fueled the hype by emerging as top prospects in the game. The major-league chapter hasn't quite followed the same storybook formula. Things looked bright early on; I had them ranked first and fourth coming off an impressive 2017 campaign in which they helped return the Twins to contention. But Buxton and Sanó fell to third and 14th the following year. Most recently they were seventh and 11th. Meanwhile, Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco have risen above them as essential building blocks, merely because they are dependable and durable fixtures with good contracts. In a nutshell, that probably explains why the Twins have flirted with greatness rather than fully realizing it during the past couple seasons. Flawed and subjective as they might be, these rankings do tell an illuminating tale over time. I look forward to breaking down and debating this year's list, starting tomorrow night. BONUS CHALLENGE: If anyone dares take a shot, I'd like to see some predictions for how this year's top 20 will shake out. Share yours in the comments and if someone gets it right (or even close) I'll give a major shout-out in the final edition. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Even in that case, I would say it was more about value than emotion. As I recall, they cut off talks at one point because he wasn't open to what they were offering, then they circled back like a month later and made it happen. On their terms. So, yeah, your point stands.

I don't think it's that rare? Most borderline shortstops start moving down the defensive spectrum at some point – Polanco has arguably hung in there at SS for an oddly long time given his performance. With few exceptions, if you can play a decent a shortstop you're gonna be able to play a fine second and third. They are easier positions and relatively familiar. This ain't exactly like asking Miguel Sano to play RF.

This is a good point. I was actually thinking the other day that if they acquired an SS, Polanco would likely be penciled in as Opening Day DH. It's just hard for me to imagine a scenario where he's not out there for the opener, even with the understanding that he'll see very regular time in the utility role. Down year in 2020 aside, he's been a fixture atop the lineup for years and arguably their most reliable player overall. And he's one year removed from being an All-Star. Zero chance they are done. Don't worry.

As we prepare to flip the calendar to a new year, the Minnesota Twins haven't yet added many new faces to the fold in an offseason defined more by subtraction than addition up to this point. They have made a few pickups, and been involved in some notable rumors, so let's get up to speed as we say goodbye to 2020.After signing reliever Hansel Robles for $2 million on Tuesday (more on that shortly) here's a snapshot of Minnesota's projected 2021 roster and payroll: Download attachment: twinsroster122920.png This accounting does not include the $5+ million that Kenta Maeda is likely to make in incentives, but even still, the Twins are a long way from the $138.3 million mark I had them pegged for in the final update last winter. (They ended up spending a prorated portion of that in the 60-game season.) While it's generally believed that 2021 payroll will be down a shade, there have been no indications the Twins intend to scale back dramatically. They might not have $50 million to spend, but they've got absolutely got the means to make some noise. They haven't yet. And that's hardly unique among major-league teams. But with spring training (ostensibly) less than two months away, and with the San Diego Padres lighting the Hot Stove afire this week, it's time to start getting serious. Here's a rundown on the Twins, and where they stand on several fronts at year's end. Hansel Robles Joins Back End of Bullpen After non-tendering Matt Wisler and letting three key veteran right-handed relievers walk via free agency, the Twins finally made an offsetting addition on Tuesday, signing former Angels closer Hansel Robles to a one-year, $2 million deal plus incentives. The nature of those incentives probably tells us something about how they plan (or hope) to use him. All Quiet on the Nelson Cruz Front In many ways, Minnesota's offseason strategy appears to hinge on the Cruz decision. So far, there's been little known movement. He wants to wait to sign until MLB provides clarity on the DH rule for next year, but there's no sign of getting any in the immediate future. How long can the Twins wait, with their offseason plans mired in limbo? Baldelli made his pitch to the free agent slugger during a media Zoom session earlier this month. "Nelson, if you're watching, which I know you're not, we'd love to see you in spring training, and I'll talk to you soon," he said into the camera with a grin. Goofing around? Sure. But it felt like there was almost a knowingness to Baldelli's casual advance. I'm not saying the Twins and Cruz have a handshake agreement in place that any competing offer on a one-year contract will be matched ... but it wouldn't shock me if they did. We'll keep covering the news here at Twins Daily as it arises. I hope everyone has a happy, safe and healthy New Year. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

There's a difference between being "analytically driven" & having "payroll restrictions" and signing Tony Batista for $1 million to fill a critical need on a WS contender. The Twins were at the extreme ends of both sides during that era, now they've moved to the opposite end of the spectrum. Which to me is worthy of reflecting on during a slow offseason. I guess not to everyone!

I'm not complaining about Terry Ryan. I'm expressing appreciation for the new front office and the transformative change in ownership investment compared to 15 years ago. Thought that was pretty clear?

On this date 15 years ago, one of the previous front office regime's more memorable offseason moves (for all the wrong reasons) took place. Today, it's worth reflecting back on that ill-fated decision, as a measure of just how far we've come.On December 15th, 2005, the Minnesota Twins announced the signing of third baseman Tony Batista to a one year, $1.25 million contract. The Twins, at this stage, were very much in World Series contention, despite having missed the playoffs for the first time in four years. Minnesota had an elite talent core, highlighted by Johan Santana, Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Torii Hunter, and a strong bullpen led by Joe Nathan. They needed a few pieces to get them over the top. The Twins had a clear hole at the hot corner, having abandoned the "Michael Cuddyer, third baseman" experiment. The choice to fill it was Batista, a long-time big-leaguer who had spent the previous season playing in Japan. At the time, I was a fledgling 20-year-old blogger, still in my first year of co-operating Nick & Nick’s Twins Blog. I recall being fairly ambivalent about the move, seeing it as a low-cost power infusion with glimmers of upside. But I’ll never forget the furious reaction of one Aaron Gleeman, whose blog I’d only recently begun to read with regularity. In a piece titled “Tony F'ing Batista,” Gleeman eviscerated the move. “I have been critical of many Twins trades and signings in the past, but I can't possibly stress just how awful I think signing Batista is," he wrote. "I almost wish I had never disagreed with anything the franchise has ever done before, just so I could save up all of my disapproval for this singular decision." As I’d later learn, he was absolutely right. All these years later, the Batista signing sticks in my memory for epitomizing so many frustrating traits and tendencies of the previous baseball ops department – traits that would endure and hamper the club’s efforts for another decade before a full overhaul in 2016. The Batista signing represented three key downfalls of Terry Ryan and his disciples: Overvaluing traditional statistics. It’s a reflection of their dated evaluative methods, which quickly began to lag behind the times as an analytical revolution took hold of baseball. There was, quite literally, nothing very appealing about Batista other than his HR and RBI totals. He’d put up 32 homers and driven in 110 runs for Montreal two years earlier, but with a .272 on-base percentage, plainly bad defense, and a negative WAR. His performance in Japan the following year was much the same.Inability to assess and project performance from foreign pro leagues. There are many examples of former MLB players who spent a few years playing overseas and were revitalized; Eric Thames comes to mind, as does Miles Mikolas. If that’s what the Twins were hoping to achieve with Batista, they were woefully mistaken. His .263/.294/.463 slash line in one season with the Fukuoka Daiei Hawks, while uninspiring, proved to far exceed what he'd deliver the next year back in MLB. The Twins front office later flopped on high-profile international signings to fill immediate holes: Tsuyoshi Nishioka, and to a lesser extent, Byung-Ho Park.Unwillingness to decisively upgrade a championship-caliber roster. This was by far the most aggravating flaw, though not totally on the shoulders of the front office, since payroll limitations were more stark and suppressive in the Metrodome days. Still, the number of low-wattage veterans and creatively frugal pickups like Batista who were brought in to supplement a championship-caliber nucleus was infuriating – only more so in retrospect as we look back at the relentless playoff failures that defined that era of Twins baseball.I bring all this up not to lament the past, but to appreciate the present. A completely retooled front office has returned the Twins to the top of the division, turning around a 103-loss team in just three years. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have been able to accomplish this largely because they are the antithesis of TR's administration with respect to the three items above. Overvaluing outdated performance metrics? Hardly. This operation is on the cutting edge analytically, which has fueled its immense success. Whereas the previous regime might've well kept around Eddie Rosario, cherishing his gaudy RBI totals and intangibles, it was never even a thought for the current front office. There isn't a direct comparison to be made on the second point, as Falvey's front office has yet to make a significant acquisition from the Asian pro leagues. (The closest thing would be Wilin Rosario, who came back from Japan in 2019 and raked at Triple-A but didn't reach the majors.) But, if and when they do, I trust it'll be made on quality data and valid intel, rather than gut feelings and specious thinking. It's food for thought as KBO star Ha-seong Kim, a talented young shortstop who could potentially suit the Twins' needs quite nicely, is expected to be posted by the Kiwoom Heroes this winter. As for Terry Ryan's penchant for nickel-and-diming his way through the ostensible construction of championship contenders? Here we find the sharpest contrast. And as mentioned earlier, it can't be entirely tied to the man in the GM's chair – things were very different back in 2005, when Carl Pohlad still ran the show and the Dome suffocated revenues. To what extent these realities weighed against Ryan's instinctive frugality, I don't know. All I know is I'm so damn glad the script has flipped. In signing Batista, Ryan spent $1.25 million to address a key need on a team that went on to win 96 games – in SPITE of Batista's brutal six weeks, which set up Nick Punto as a heroic figure by merely becoming an average replacement at third. Take that number, multiply it by nearly 100, and you arrive at the amount committed to Josh Donaldson last winter. Not only was it the kind of emphatic, all-in investment that would've been unthinkable in the previous era, but it didn't even address a clear need. The Twins had a third baseman in Miguel Sano. They signed Donaldson to power up an already outstanding team and put it over the top. We'll see what the current front office has in store this offseason, with the same opportunity still very much at hand and several needs to be addressed. I don't know what they'll do, but I am confident they won't sign the next Tony Batista. If they do, I'll definitely be making a visit to Mr. Gleeman's feed at The Athletic. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Major League Baseball has reportedly advised clubs to proceed under the assumption that DH will return to being AL-only in 2021. This would be very bad news for Nelson Cruz, but potentially very good news for Twins fans who are eager to see the veteran slugger return to Minnesota.If the designated hitter is removed from the National League for next year, Cruz's potential market is sliced in half from 30 teams to the 15. But the reality for Cruz is even grimmer than that; only a select few teams might feasibly target him based on their needs and circumstances. As you size up the landscape of AL teams, their budgets, motivations, and current situations at DH, it becomes evident that Cruz will have a very limited field of suitors this winter. This is not unlike two offseasons ago, when the same dynamic led to him taking a lower-than-expected deal with the Twins. But this time around, the terrain may be even less favorable for Cruz. Below, I've grouped all 15 teams into three tiers, based on the level of interest they're likely to have in pursuing Cruz as a free agent target: YAY NELLY: These teams are bona fide contenders with a fairly evident need at DH, and a reasonable likelihood of spending the money necessary to sign Cruz.MAYBE NELLY: These teams are either borderline contenders, or light spenders, or good clubs without an obvious fit for a pure DH.NAY NELLY: These teams either have zero room for a DH-only player, or are rebuilding with no reason to spend money on a 40-year-old DH (and no appeal to Cruz at this point anyway).There's certainly room for debate, but here's how I see the suitors shaking out: YAY NELLY White Sox: If Cruz signs somewhere other than Minnesota this offseason, I see Chicago as the single most likely destination. They are in the same place as the Twins were two years ago when they signed Nelly – a talented young team on the cusp, in need of veteran leadership and proven production. The Sox declined a $12 million option on Edwin Encarnacion, who was a disappointment at DH in 2020, but I bet they'd happily give that same amount (or a bit more) to Cruz next year. Cleveland: I'm tempted to knock them down into the "Maybe" category, because we have every indication that Cleveland is going to scale back spending even more than usual this winter. The thing is, Cruz would be such a massive difference-maker for this team. They are well positioned to push, with an elite pitching staff led by the reigning Cy Young winner. Shane Bieber finished fourth in MVP voting this year, while Cruz finished sixth. Pairing those two would keep Cleveland squarely in the championship conversation, even if they trade Francisco Lindor and spend minimally elsewhere. Twins: They don't really *need* Cruz, which is a point that Matthew Taylor made well the other day. Minnesota could turn to a rotation of internal options and spend the funds elsewhere. But we'd be kidding ourselves to think they won't seriously pursue a reunion with Cruz. He's been named their Most Valuable Player in two straight years, bringing resounding value both on the field and off it. MAYBE NELLY Angels: Cruz and Mike Trout hitting in the same lineup – could you imagine it?! They rank No. 1 and 2 among all MLB hitters in OPS and wOBA over the past two seasons. And Los Angeles is very much in the business of winning now, as the clock continues to tick on Trout's incomplete legacy. The complication of course is Shohei Ohtani. If the Angels intend to continue using him as a two-way player, they simply can't sign a full-time designated hitter. Doesn't work. If they ditch that plan (against Ohtani's wishes), and move him to the outfield, Cruz suddenly becomes very viable, and LA moves up to the "Yay Nelly" category. It all hinges on Ohtani. Blue Jays: I like the idea of Cruz joining the Jays in that he'd make for a poetic bookend to 21-year-old Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – generational sluggers of Dominican descent, joining forces to help Toronto dethrone New York and take over the East. Cruz competed against Vlad Sr. for many years, and would bring much more than added punch to a talented young Jays lineup. However, even at his young age, the junior Vlad is already almost relegated to DH, and Toronto already has a second defensively limited slugger in Rowdy Tellez. I don't quite see how they make room for Cruz. Rays: Are they a great fit? Absolutely. This team reached the World Series before falling just short, and could desperately use the experience, leadership, and production Cruz would provide. On paper it's a match made in heaven. But here, paper is the problem – as in cash money. Tampa unloads payroll and spends frugally under the best of circumstances. They're also not known for buying high. In this depressed economic setting, with Cruz looking to cash in, I just can't see the Rays ponying up. But he is a great fit here, so they're in the conversation. Rangers: There are some reasons to see Texas as a logical landing spot for Cruz. The Rangers are coming off a really disappointing year and in need of a shakeup. Shin-Soo Choo, who's been a fixture at DH over the past few seasons, is now a free agent. Cruz would be a potentially transformative upgrade to an offense that ranked last in the American League in OPS in 2020. Plus, there's the familiarity – Cruz spent eight seasons playing in Texas and blossomed as a star there. Problem is: Texas seems a few years from contention at least. They finished last in 2020, haven't finished better than third since 2016, and just traded Lance Lynn to the White Sox. Astros: Houston was among the finalists (maybe runner-up) for Cruz when the Twins signed him two years ago. They will once again be targeting a title in 2021, and are facing the losses of a couple key offensive pieces in free agents George Springer and Michael Brantley. You could see how the addition of a star property like Cruz would be appealing. But the Astros have already got Yordan Alvarez. The 2019 Rookie of the Year was already basically a full-time DH before he had surgery on both knees this summer. I guess they could do something like put Alvarez at first base or left field to make room for Cruz, but it doesn't seem likely. NAY NELLY Athletics: Khris Davis is one of the two or three players who is even in the conversation with Cruz as best designated hitter in baseball. He plays for the A's, and is under contract for $16.75 million in 2021. Red Sox: The Red Sox are committed to J.D. Martinez for $19.35 million in 2021, and he's not really an option anywhere other than DH. Martinez is not far removed from producing at a Cruz-like level (which is why Boston gave him his mega-deal) and he's seven years younger. Yankees: Theoretically, I'm sure New York would love to add Cruz to their already power-packed lineup. It'd fit their M.O. But the details are tricky. The Yankees already have Aaron Judge in right, Giancarlo Stanton at DH, and breakout slugger Luke Voit at first base. How would Cruz possibly work into this equation? Orioles: Cruz might have one year left in the tank. He isn't spending it with a blatant rebuilder, with no realistic hopes of contending. Mariners: See above. Tigers: See above, again. Royals: Also basically the same. Kansas City is closer to contention than any of the three above, but they already have Jorge Soler at DH and just signed Carlos Santana. Okay, so what have we learned here? Basically, it's hard to see more than handful of teams making any kind of push for Cruz. Barring unseen developments, his market might amount to two or three teams. Which is be very bad news for him but good news for the Twins. He's a luxury, but perhaps one they can afford. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Who was Jack the Ripper? Where is Jimmy Hoffa? What became of the Ark of the Covenant? On Wednesday night, a new mystery entered the annals of great unknowns: Why did the Twins front office non-tender Matt Wisler, one of their most resounding success stories? Ever the intrepid gumshoe, I set out to investigate.Here are the facts, as we know them: The Twins claimed Matt Wisler off waivers from Seattle on October 29th of last year, and tendered him a $725,000 contract via arbitration. Evidently they saw something they felt they could unlock in the 27-year-old, coming off a 5.61 ERA with the Padres and Mariners.They unlocked it. Wisler enjoyed a breakout season in 2020, albeit in the small sample of 60 games. Relying almost entirely on a fully realized slider, the right-hander was nearly unhittable, posting a 1.07 ERA in 25 ⅓ innings while holding opponents to a 1.65 batting average.Here in his second turn at arbitration, Wisler was expected to make somewhere between $1-2 million, a seemingly nominal fee for a 28-year-old relief pitcher coming off a breakout season. (Especially with Trevor May, Sergio Romo, and Tyler Clippard all cast into free agency.)Everything was lined up such that Wisler was never viewed as much of a question mark. Bringing him back was a given. Even if the Twins looked at Wisler more as a middle reliever than setup man, there was no reason to think he'd be cut loose. And yet. When Wednesday's non-tender deadline came, that is exactly what the Twins did. I was baffled. About an hour after this news dropped, I did a . We strained to make sense of the move but it was tough. Even if the Twins viewed Wisler's 1.07 ERA as an unsustainable fluke (it was), and even if they felt his agent was pushing a little hard, and even if budget constraints are tightening in this offseason of uncertainty ... it's just hard to comprehend why the front office would cut ties with a pickup that was everything they could've hoped. In my state of despair, I wandered over to Wisler's FanGraphs page, with no specific intention. "Maybe I'll just gaze longingly at his swinging strike rate," I thought. But as I arrived at the page... Download attachment: wisler1.png And scrolled down to look at his stats... Download attachment: wisler2.png My eyes suddenly zeroed in on one particular region... Download attachment: wisler3.png Again, we are dealing with a small sample size here. So everything must be taken with a grain of salt, including Wisler's shiny ERA and opponents' batting average. But these underlying numbers make you wonder a little more about those glossy bona fides. .241 BABIP: Opponents were less successful on balls in play against Wisler than ever before, by a longshot. His previous career low was .277, and his 2020 BABIP ranked as second-lowest in the Twins bullpen.99.3% LOB: This represents the percentage of baserunners that Wisler left on base, and if you find yourself exclaiming "WHAT?!" you are not alone my friend. That is an incredible number. As I ventured over to his Baseball Reference splits, I found that Wisler held opponents to a .080/.179/.160 slash line with runners in scoring position, and .119/.260/.190 with men on base. One could argue this signifies cold-blooded clutchness. One could also argue it represents a 25-inning fluke. I think I know which way the Twins lean.5.7% HR/FB: Wisler was one of the league's most extreme fly ball pitchers (his 23.6% grounder rate ranked 6th-lowest out of 323 pitchers with 20+ innings) but those flies only left the yard at a 5.7% rate, compared to the league average of 14.8%.Now, none of these on their own are damning. But each of the above metrics tends to be viewed as relatively random for pitchers ... as opposed to say missing bats, which Wisler did well, or limiting walks, which he didn't. What these numbers do is cast a little more light on why the Twins front office might've disagreed with the assessment of Wisler and his agent, as Derek Falvey put it so diplomatically: So for now, Wisler is out of the picture. Meanwhile, Trevor May has signed a deal with the Mets. Sergio Romo and Tyler Clippard are free agents. The Twins are sticking with Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey, and Caleb Thielbar. As for the rest of their bullpen? Now we have our next great mystery. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

On Wednesday night, a major offseason milestone arrived with the non-tender deadline. This one loomed especially large for the Minnesota Twins, who are facing difficult stay-or-go arbitration decisions on two longtime fixtures. We reacted to those decisions, plus another out-of-nowhere shocker, and analyzed a wave of newly available free agents on Offseason Live.It looks like the Twins are moving on from longtime left fielder Eddie Rosario. But closer Taylor Rogers is sticking around. Shockingly, Matt Wisler was non-tendered despite a seemingly modest price tag coming off a breakout year. Download attachment: twinsinarb.png Minnesota wasn't the only team confronting tough calls on quality players – calls that would perhaps be no-brainers under different circumstances. Numerous players from other clubs suddenly became available, some of them logical fits for Minnesota. I was joined via live-stream by Seth Stohs and David Youngs on Wednesday night, an hour after the deadline, as we reacted to the news and broke it down. Tune into future live broadcasts on Twins Daily's Twitter, Facebook, or YouTube page. (Or by tuning into the YouTube stream above.) It's an interactive show where viewers help steer the conversation via comments and questions. You can also catch every episode via audio by subscribing to our podcast. In the meantime, check out previous episodes of Offseason Live and see what's upcoming: Ep 1: (Thurs, 10/8)Ep 2: (Tues, 10/13)Ep 3: (Thurs, 10/15)Ep 4: (Tues, 10/20)Ep 5: (Thurs, 10/22)Ep 6: (Tues, 10/27)Ep 7: (Thurs, 10/29)Ep 8: (Thurs, 11/5)Ep 9: (Thurs, 11/12)Ep 10: (Tues, 11/17)Ep 11: (Weds, 12/2) Click here to view the article

Well, the idea is to save money, which you'd be doing. Obviously those prospects are all part of the long-term plan but throwing them directly into action for a World Series contender, with almost no combined MLB experience between them, is a bit dicey. There should be plenty of ABs to go around if both Cruz and Rosario are gone. Fair enough, but not sure I'd label either of these guys a reclamation project. Renfroe struggled in a short 2020 season but the power was still there and he was a solidly above-average hitter in 2018-19. Nunez had his best season in 2020 and was above average in each of the prior two. Neither one's power output in 2019 seems like an outlier. Let's look at it this way -- since the start of 2019, Nunez has 43 HR and Renfroe has 41. Only 4 Twins players had more than 41 HR over that span and two of them are Cruz and Rosario.

The Minnesota Twins are staring down the potential departures of their two most established run producers this winter, with a key decision on Eddie Rosario looming in a few days. Should they be seeking out power bats to replace these lineup fixtures, the Twins may take interest in couple of righty sluggers that unexpectedly hit the market over the past week.Twins fans know all too well that just because a player is waived by one team doesn't mean he can't make a major impact for another one. David Ortiz lamentations aside, there are plenty of more recent examples to illustrate the point. Two offseasons ago, the Twins filled a need at first base by grabbing C.J. Cron after he was placed on waivers by Tampa Bay. While he was slowed by a thumb injury in 2019, Cron lived up to his rep as a quality slugger, playing a key role for an offense that set the all-time home run record. More recently, Minnesota plucked reliever Matt Wisler off waivers from Seattle last October; Wisler went on to become a huge asset and is one of their entrenched bullpen fixtures going forward. The two players we'll cover here already passed through waivers, unlike the two above who were claimed. This only underscores the fact that they are available, and probably at a pretty low cost. Let's take a look at Hunter Renfroe and Renato Nunez. Hunter Renfroe, OF Age 28 Waived by Tampa Bay The Rays have a history of waiving proven offensive producers with marginal defensive value. Cron, mentioned above, is one example. Corey Dickerson is another. Renfroe is a little less surprising than either of them, because he's coming off a rough season, but still – we're talking about a 28-year-old former top prospect with a .486 slugging percentage in the majors. Before his down year in 2020, in which he slashed .156/.252/.393 for Tampa, Renfroe belted 26, 26, and 33 home runs over his first three MLB seasons with the Padres. Most critically: he's a right-handed hitter with a career .258/.339/.573 line against left-handed pitchers. Even amid his struggles in 2020, Renfroe still went deep five times in 51 plate appearances against southpaws. In 2019 he had a .906 OPS against them. His clear strength would offset what was a clear weakness for the Twins in 2020. They slashed just .236/.309/.349 against left-handed pitching, and that was WITH Cruz posting a 1.456 OPS versus lefties. Renfroe is certainly no Cruz, but he'd be a good fit as a rotational player capable of filling in at DH as well as left field and right field (where the starters will presumably both be left-handed regardless of how the Twins decide on Rosario). As a righty power hitter with a somewhat depressed market, Renfroe looks like a nice option for the Twins. But he's not the only player with such a profile to have recently become available. Renato Núñez, 1B/DH Age: 26 Waived by Baltimore Like Renfroe, Núñez had a big offensive season in 2019, piling up 31 home runs and 90 RBIs for the Orioles as a 25-year-old. But unlike Renfroe, he didn't tail off in 2020 – Núñez homered 12 times in 52 games this season, putting up a career-high .256/.324/.492 slash line while splitting time between first base and DH. His price tag wouldn't have been all that high in Year 1 of arbitration (likely in the $3 million range) but the rebuilding Orioles understandably have other priorities than a defensively limited, impatient power hitter. Núñez is not the kind of player who will be in high demand, but he could fit the Twins' needs fairly well if they move on from Cruz. He's an inexpensive right-handed hitter who is in the heart of his prime, turning 27 next April. In his age 25 and 26 seasons, he has hit 43 home runs with a .469 slugging percentage in 203 games. There are two things that make Núñez less appealing than Renfroe for the Twins: Núñez doesn't play the outfield, so he'd be more of a straight-up Cruz replacement at DH, capable of filling in occasionally at first. (He can play a little third base but he's not strong there.)While he swings righty, Núñez hasn't specialized against mashing left-handed pitching. Eleven of his 12 home runs in 2020 came against righties, and he has a better career OPS against RHP.These hold-ups aside, Núñez is a talented player at the peak of his athleticism, and bringing him aboard would add some reliable power production cheaply while enabling the Twins to redirect their savings elsewhere. In an offseason landscape full of intriguing possibilities, we can add a couple more to the list, with the Winter Meetings suddenly just a week away. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Bailey Ober, added to Minnesota's 40-man roster a few days ago, is set to become the latest in a long line of Twins pitchers that are really, really tall. It's a running fascination that traces back through several different front office configurations. Let's explore the recent history of towering Twins hurlers.Tall pitchers have a natural mystique, which is rooted in both romantic and scientific thinking. Scouts cherish a tall young thrower, evoking adjectives like "angular" and "projectable." A mountainous figure on the mound is inherently imposing, and there are also more tangible advantages, like a deeper release point and sharper downward plane. Six-foot-10 Randy Johnson represented the epitome of these qualities, and he's rightly revered as one of the most dominant to ever take the hill. To an extent, you could argue being tall is almost a requisite for greatness. Last year Eli Ben-Porat of The Hardball Times reviewed the top pitchers from 2016 through 2018, and he more or less reached this conclusion. "All seven of the top pitchers over the past three seasons were at least 6-foot-3, with only two of the top 14 (6-foot-2 Aaron Nola and 6-foot-1 Trevor Bauer) shorter than that. Of the top 23, only five are below 6-foot-3, and all are at least 6-foot-1," he wrote. "Marcus Stroman is correct that Height Doesn’t Measure Heart; however, it definitely measures an individual’s potential to be a front-end major league baseball starter, especially in today’s game." Now, there's a difference between being lower-case "tall" and upper-case TALL. While the former is prototypical, the latter is more experimental, and Minnesota's many ventures on this front have been uneven. Standing 6-foot-9, Ober certainly lands in the TALL category. Starting with him, here's a backward-chronological look at some notable altitudinous specimens of the franchise's recent past. Bailey Ober, RHP (6'9"): He was recently added to the Twins' 40-man roster, paving way for a not-too-distant MLB debut. Drafted in the 12th round of the 2017 draft, Ober put up big numbers during his first two professionals seasons (181.2 IP, 2.38 ERA, 11.0 K/9, 1.0 BB/9, 0.94 WHIP), and was lights-out in his 2019 stint at Double-A, where he allowed one earned run on 10 hits over 24 innings with a 34-to-2 K/BB ratio. Despite the huge numbers (largely accrued as an advanced college arm facing inexperienced competition), Ober's stuff isn't considered overpowering and his fastball tops out in the 80s. Michael Pineda (6'7"): It wasn't necessarily Pineda's height that attracted Minnesota's front office to him three offseasons ago, so much as a favorable opportunity to land a quality pitcher on a savvy contract coming off surgery. But Big Mike is a big man, and his size certainly plays a role in his standout ability. He's the closest thing to a dominant starting pitcher on this list, which is saying something because while he can throw in the mid-90s and induce a fair share of whiffs, he's more of an efficient strike-thrower than intimidating power arm. Aaron Slegers (6'10"): Terry Ryan's Twins added Slegers in the fifth round of the 2013 draft, viewing him as an interesting project despite his meager strikeout numbers at the University of Indiana. Slegers was fairly similar to Ober in build, and likewise, didn't bring much heat. Unlike Ober, though, Slegers never posted impressive K-rates in the minors, and that has translated to a 5.3 K/9 rate in 58 MLB innings. He did make three appearances in the playoffs for Tampa this year. Mike Pelfrey (6'7"): Six months before Ryan's front office added Slegers in the draft, they added Pelfrey as a free agent. Pelf is the banner example of a tall pitcher whose primary appeal seems to be that he's tall. And to his credit, I guess, it's a trait that carried him through a remarkably lengthy major-league career. He was a first-round draft pick (ninth overall) by the Mets in 2006, and went on to make more than 250 MLB starts, logging nearly 1,500 innings. This despite the fact that he consistently put forth poor strikeout rates, poor control, and generally lackluster results. Pelfrey never struck out even twice as many batters as he walked, and never posted so much as a league-average ERA after his career year in 2010. Despite that, he pitched in the majors through 2017, receiving not one but TWO contracts from TR and the Twins. Alex Meyer (6'9"): One month before signing Pelfrey as a free agent, the Twins acquired Meyer from the Washington Nationals in exchange for Denard Span. Ryan definitely had a type in his second stint as GM. A lean, lanky fireballer with a quirky delivery, Meyer was much more of a high-upside prospect in the theoretical Randy Johnson mold. Unfortunately, his fate was one that befalls all too many tantalizing prodigies of this ilk: erratic control and injuries. They derailed the righty before he could even scratch the surface of his potential. Meyer threw 95 innings in the majors (just six with the Twins) before retiring. Jon Rauch (6'11"): While Terry Ryan clearly had an affinity for tall pitchers, it was his temporary replacement Bill Smith who traded for the tallest pitcher in major-league history. With the Twins racing for a playoff berth run in 2009, Smith acquired Rauch from Arizona in exchange for Kevin Mulvey. Minnesota was one of seven major-league stops for Rauch in an 11-year MLB run spent mostly in the bullpen. While he definitely carved out a nice career for himself, Rauch was known more for steadily solid reliability as opposed to overpowering dominance. His fastball often sat in the upper-80s and he never averaged even a strikeout per inning. Michael Tonkin (6'7"): The Twins took a liking to Tonkin as a high schooler in Palmdale, CA. They chose him with a late-round pick in 2008 and convinced him to sign for a huge over-slot bonus ($230K). At the time, Baseball America spoke highly of Tonkin's "projectable frame" and "ideal build." Fitting more of the prototypical mold for a tall and lanky pitcher, Tonkin used a power fastball to tally big strikeout totals and strong overall numbers in the minors, but he never translated it to sustained MLB success, mainly because of his proneness to home runs. Tonkin made 141 appearances over five seasons with the Twins, posting a 4.43 ERA, then spent 2018 pitching in Japan before returning in 2019 and pitching on a few different minor-league clubs. Still only 31, it's possible we haven't seen the last of him. Loek van Mil (7'1"): If he ever got his shot, Van Mil would've supplanted Rauch from his title as tallest MLB pitcher ever. Minnesota signed the unconventional Dutch right-hander out of the Netherlands in 2005, and he showed occasional flashes while rising through their system, though – much like for Meyer – injuries and control were constant battles. The Twins traded Van Mil to the Angels in exchange for Brian Fuentes in 2010 – incidentally, just two days after they acquired Rauch from Arizona. From there, Van Mil bounced around between a few different organizations, went to pitch in Japan and then the Netherlands, resurfaced in the Twins system for a bit in 2015-16, and then spent a few years pitching in Australia. Tragically, he passed away in July of 2019 at age 34. It's possible I'm missing a name or two, but these are the players that stand out to me from over the past couple of decades. Kyle Gibson (6'6") would be another borderline example but I kind of (arbitrarily) set the threshold at 6-foot-7 or taller. Such pitchers are relatively rare, but as you can see the Twins have found plenty to try and work with. So what have we learned on this journey? Maybe not much, other than that height is anything but a dependable predictor of dominance. While a few pitchers on the list above have managed to carve out lengthy and respectable major-league careers, none did so in a fashion even remotely resembling The Big Unit. In terms of stuff and approach, Ober is fairly comparable to a guy like Slegers, coming consistently over the plate with an arsenal that doesn't sizzle. But Slegers never put up remotely impressive K-rates at any level of the minors, whereas as Ober has shown an exceptional ability to miss bats, all the way up through Double-A. In his four starts at Pensacola to close out the 2019 campaign, Ober struck out 40% of the batters he faced with a 21% swinging strike rate. Velocity or not, those are the kind of flat-out dominant results you dream of from a 6-foot-9 figure on the hill. Even in light of the checkered history of outcomes, I'm really curious to see what becomes of Ober as the latest experiment in sky-scraping pitchers for the Twins. With his tremendous early success in the minors, he carries quite a bit of intrigue in the context of this list. If you want to learn more about the new Twins 40-man addition, in his own words, Seth interviewed Ober shortly after the roster move was announced. You can watch their conversation below on Twins Spotlight: MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article