Nick Nelson

The Twins are in first place and on track to reach the postseason for the first time in three years. In that regard, things are going exactly to plan! In most other regards, they are not. Looking at the team's top 10 most valuable position players up to this point (per Wins Above Replacement) shows just differently things have shaken out for this team compared to expectations. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports With 140 games in the books, the Minnesota Twins are 73-67. There have been many ups and downs over the course of the season, but as we coast toward the finish line they are on pace to essentially meet their preseason win expectations – they were projected to win 83 games, per BetMGM, and are tracking for 84 this season. That will likely be enough to win the AL Central handily, because all other teams in the division flopped to varying degrees. In this article, we'll use the FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement (fWAR) metric to break down the most 10 valuable contributors on the offense this season. In doing so, we'll find encouraging signs of emerging youth, uplifting tales of redemption, and a few players whose absences from the list speak volumes. Before listing the top 10 Twins position players by fWAR for 2023, let's take a look back at last year's top finishers, to reset our expectations regarding where the team was planning to receive impact. Top 10 Twins Position Players in fWAR, 2022 Carlos Correa (4.3) Byron Buxton (4.0) Luis Arraez (3.1) Gio Urshela (2.3) Max Kepler (2.0) Jorge Polanco (1.8) Nick Gordon (1.5) Gary Sanchez (1.3) Jose Miranda (1.1) Trevor Larnach (1.1) In looking at that list, it becomes dauntingly clear just how much offensive value the Twins ultimately would need to backfill this year – from departing players (Arraez, Urshela), massive drop-offs (Correa, Buxton), and complete disappearances (Gordon, Miranda). Here's how they made it happen. Top 10 Twins Position Players in fWAR, 2023 (through 140G) 1. Ryan Jeffers (2.0) Jeffers just missed the top 10 last year, finishing 11th on the team with 0.9 WAR. The fact he was even close to making the cut, in a season where he played 67 games and batted .208, shows how much credit catchers receive for merely being capable. (So does the fact that Sanchez ranked eighth.) The Wins Above Replacement metric reflects a basic truth in baseball: good two-way catchers are incredibly hard to come by, and tremendously valuable when you find one. That's why the breakout from Jeffers this year is so hugely invigorating. His standout bat (.269/.368/.462, 10 HR) combined with steady defense behind the plate enables Jeffers to lead all Twins position players in WAR, despite ranking TWELFTH in plate appearances. 2. Edouard Julien (2.0) Julien was viewed as one of the best and most polished bats in the system, a key reason the front office was okay with trading Arraez. Sure enough, the impact Julien has made since being called up for good in May has done much to offset the loss of Minnesota's cherished batting champ. Julien's OPS+ this year (127) is almost identical to Arraez's from last year (128), and he has fulfilled a very similar functional role as a second baseman, designated hitter, and now first baseman. 3. Max Kepler (1.9) During the offseason, many people wanted Kepler gone. As the first half of this season unfolded, even more people wanted Kepler gone. The Twins front office held strong through all of it, and their faith has been paid off handsomely. On June 15th, Kepler's OPS fell to a season-low .625 as he went 0-for-2 with a pair of strikeouts. His WAR had sunken into the negative. At that moment, a switch seemed to flip in Kepler. He got the next day off, then came back and homered three times in his next four games. He's been on a tear ever since, slashing .287/.355/.543 with 14 homers, 15 doubles, and the usual stellar defense in right field. As a result, Kepler easily leads all Twins players with 2.0 fWAR during this span. His $10 million team option for next year is suddenly very appealing. The front office insisted that the trade market didn't meet their standard last offseason, and now will surely find a much more favorable one if they choose to shop Kepler this winter. Meanwhile, he's quickly solidified himself as their best left-handed power bat for the postseason. 4. Michael A. Taylor (1.8) The Twins traded for Taylor in late January, seemingly viewing him as a nice luxury: quality fourth outfielder and Buxton insurance policy. As it turns out, they've needed to cash in that insurance policy in a huge way, and Taylor has answered the call. His defense in center field has been phenomenal, often channeling shades of Buxton. At the plate, Taylor has created a lot of outs as usual (.281 OBP) but he's bringing tons of power with a career-high 20 home runs. In past years we've seen an injured Buxton give way to guys like Gilberto Celestino and Jake Cave, so the impact of having Taylor play to the level of a solid regular can hardly be overstated. 5. Royce Lewis (1.7) Recovering from a second consecutive ACL tear, Lewis spent the first two months of the season rehabbing and building up. He joined the Twins at the end of May, played brilliantly for a month, then went down with an oblique injury that cost him six weeks. Despite all of these setbacks, which cost him more than half of this season (after missing nearly all of the previous two), Lewis has consistently played at an All-Star and borderline MVP level when on the major-league field. In just 46 games he's produced 1.7 WAR, which equates to a 5.5-WAR full-season pace. At long last, the former No. 1 overall draft pick is fulfilling his destiny, with the looks of a long-term franchise centerpiece. 6. Willi Castro (1.5) Discarded by the Tigers after posting a 0.7 WAR in 112 games last year, Castro was scooped up on a minor-league deal in December. The signing received little fanfare, and few expected him to make the Opening Day roster all the way up until the end of camp. Even then, the speedy utilityman's time appeared limited. A placeholder. Instead, Castro has turned himself into a mainstay for Rocco Baldelli, filling in all over the field and adding value with his ability to run and switch-hit. Castro has spent time at seven different positions, including pitcher, and is 30-for-34 on stolen bases, adding an element that is otherwise almost completely amiss on the Twins. Castro's WAR is already a career high and he has likely carved himself out a role as a very handy bench player going forward. 7. Donovan Solano (1.4) Much like Taylor, Solano felt like a late-offseason afterthought, signing for $2 million with spring camp already underway. The Twins felt he was a worthwhile add given the uncertainty around Alex Kirilloff, their lack of proven right-handed bats, and their extreme swing-and-miss profile. Boy were they right on all counts. Solano has been an essential force in the Twins offense, avoiding the strikeout-fueled slumps that have consumed other players and consistently producing all year long. Solano has batted .299 against lefties, and slashed .366/.511/.535 with RISP. His presence at first base, where he leads the team in starts, has kept the position from becoming a black hole in Kirilloff's absence. What a pickup. 8. Jorge Polanco (1.3) Polanco almost always provides value when on the field; he's just so rarely there nowadays. Twins fans have been reminded lately just how much of a difference-maker a moderately healthy Polanco can be, as he's retaken and revitalized the No. 2 spot in the batting order. Over the past calendar month he's slashing .304/.412/.554 with 21 RBIs in 26 games. Keeping Polo healthy for October is utterly paramount. 9. Kyle Farmer (1.2) Acquired via trade from Cincinnati in November, Farmer is one of the few players on this list who's lived up to expectations pretty much exactly. He was worth 1.9 fWAR in 2021 (147 G), 1.5 in 2022 (145 G), and is at 1.2 through 100 games this year, which would equate to a 150-game pace of 1.8. He's been fine. A mediocre hitter and good infield glove who fits reasonably well in a backup role. Even with that being the case, he has still outperformed the next guy on this list, which is really the story. 10. Carlos Correa (1.1) In the first year of his new $200 million contract, the biggest free agent signing in Minnesota Twins history has been their 10th-most valuable position player. Considering the methods and means by which they were acquired, the fact that Correa has been significantly outperformed by the likes of Taylor, Solano and Castro is nothing short of stupefying. Correa's been less valuable than the uninspiring placeholder shortstop option he supplanted (Farmer). The only reason Correa even cracks the top 10 on this list is sheerly due to volume of playing time. WAR is a cumulative stat and Correa has played by far more than any other Twins position player, with his 546 plate appearances edging the second-highest (Kepler) by 130. To some extent, Correa deserves credit for staying on the field and playing through his plantar fasciitis condition. But this statistic, especially framed against the rest of the team and the rest of his career (he's never finished with a sub-3.4 WAR in a full season), really underscores how much of a toll that injury has taken. The Twins have found big value in unexpected places. What really stands out about this list, especially in contrast to last year, is the names that are NOT on it. No Gordon, no Miranda, no Kirilloff. Most critically: no Buxton. Buck currently ranks 15th on the team with 0.7 WAR, despite managing to make the third-most plate appearances of his career (346). The Twins are on track to improve their record from last year by six wins and capture the division despite getting a combined 1.8 WAR from Correa and Buxton, who totaled 8.1 WAR between them in 2023 and are the team's highest-paid, highest-upside players. Losing six wins from those two could've easily reduced the Twins to Cleveland's current level, putting them in an arduous dogfight for the final month. But instead, they've been able to rise above and separate, thanks in large part to young breakthroughs and sneaky good offseason pickups by the front office. If Correa and Buxton can bounce back to anything resembling prime form next year (or better yet, in the playoffs) this franchise is going to be in good shape. View full article

Just as quickly as he splashed onto the scene and entrenched himself as a central figure in the Minnesota Twins' plans, José Miranda has written his way out of them. Even if he can rebound from this disastrous age-25 season, how might Miranda fit in going forward with so many young infielders passing him by? Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports It's kind of wild now to go back and look at pictures from the unveiling of the new Twins branding back in November. The vision for the team's future was so different then from what it turned out to be, as illustrated by Luis Arraez and Jose Miranda bookending the five-player uniform showcase that also featured Jorge Polanco, Joe Ryan and Byron Buxton. Arraez and Miranda had established themselves as foundational to the Twins lineup, which might help explain why the team's offense was so foundationally dysfunctional in the first half, searching for an identity in their absence. Arraez is gone this year and that's largely true of Miranda as well, except not quite: he was worse than gone. Miranda produced a negative-0.6 fWAR in 40 games before going on the injured list, damaging the Twins with both his bat and glove. He was bad at third base and abysmal at the plate, producing a 56 OPS+ in 152 plate appearances. Going forward, Arraez obviously will not be a part of the franchise's plans, due to a strategic decision that so far looks pretty good. Will the same be true of Miranda, who is now very much at risk of getting lost in the shuffle? It's tricky to see a path forward for the 25-year-old, whose future here looked so promising so recently. Miranda was placed on the 60-day injured list last week, and with a lack of status updates, it seems all but understood his season is over. A spring shoulder injury that was deemed mild at the time has ended up derailing his season and casting a major cloud over Miranda's major-league future. While he's been sidelined, some major developments have taken place around him. Royce Lewis returned to the fold and has taken a star turn at third base, powering the offense as a rookie in a way that makes Miranda's 2022 campaign pale by comparison. Meanwhile, last year's first-round pick Brooks Lee is already on the doorstep of the majors. He's playing a mix of short and third in Triple-A, but with Carlos Correa entrenched as shortstop it appears Lee's future is at the hot corner, which always profiled as his best defensive position anyway. That means Lewis will eventually need to relocate – possibly to second base or the outfield. Needless to say, there's a good bit of a lot of competition at third base within the emerging core and Miranda has put himself squarely behind multiple players in that race. His days at the position might've already been numbered, given how bad he's looked defensively at third. Will the Twins even bother trying to bring him back there next year? Miranda's clearest path to returning to the picture, it seems, is first base or designated hitter. But these spots are also well staked in Minnesota's young nucleus, with Alex Kirilloff looking like the (hopeful) long-term fixture at first, and a multitude of quality bats vying for designated hitter time – Edouard Julien, Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach among them. Notably, those players are all left-handed hitters, which affords them an edge given the vastly higher number of righty pitchers in the league. Miranda faces a pretty high bar as a right-handed hitter with a spotty track record and unexceptional defensive chops. To understand how readily available this player type is, look no further than Donovan Solano, who was available on a $2 million deal in late February. To be clear, the version of Miranda we saw for a brilliant stretch of summer 2022 – seemingly backing up his monster 2021 campaign in the minors – is worth making room for. From May 20th to the end of July last year, a rookie Miranda slashed .335/.374/.571 in 50 games, launching 20 extra-base hits and driving in 37. He did so in pretty convincing fashion during that altogether brief period of time, too. Miranda would never be confused by anyone for a disciplined hitter, but he made consistently made hard contact while showing an ability to drive the ball oppo. His spray chart via Statcast illustrates an inclination for pull power with an ability to dump singles and doubles the other way on outside pitches. Usually, that's a pretty safe formula for success, so it's easy to see why Minnesota started looking at Miranda as a building block type. Unfortunately, the success evaporated this season, as he was overcome by the same limitation that kept him on the fringes of the prospect radar for years: too much soft, useless contact. Getting the bat on everything isn't helpful if you're producing easy outs, and that was the story of Miranda's 2023 season up until he was shut down in July. The combination of anemic offense and rough defense made him one of the least valuable players in the league. So that's what Miranda is working back from, at a time where the Twins are ushering a historic rookie class with numerous players solidifying their own places in the franchise's future. In short, it's hard to imagine how this season could've gone worse for José Miranda. And as a result, it's now hard to envision how he finds his way back into the team's plans going forward, barring some significant injury to another building block type. As Twins fans know, that's hardly a long-shot. Kirilloff specifically has struggled to stay off the injured list, and the system's depth at first base behind him is relatively sparse. That position seemingly holds the best chance to create another opening for Miranda, but again – even IN the depressing scenario where AK is continually sidetracked by injuries – Miranda still needs to turn around his own narrative as a poor fielder whose hitting prowess appears flatlined. It'll be very interesting to see how Miranda is viewed and handled heading into the 2024 season. For those who recall how impactful he was at his best, in the not-so-distant past, Miranda will be an intriguing wild-card factor in the franchise's bright overall outlook. View full article

A coalescing young core, a pitching staff with staying power, and a star-studded farm system – all in a complete mess of a division. The Twins are set to embark on another AL Central dynasty. Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports Watching events unfold on Monday and Tuesday night at Progressive Field was no doubt a painful experience for Guardians fans. The Twins obliterated Cleveland by a combined score of 28-9, sealing up the division in uncontested fashion as the hapless home team endured one of the most embarrassing high-stakes beatdowns I've ever seen. But that's only the start of it. On Tuesday night, the Twins effectively sewed up their third division title in five years. Based on the landscape of the American League Central, there are likely going to be more on the way. For Guards fans, getting shoved all over their home yard in the biggest series of the year was bad enough. But worse yet, these blowouts were being driven by emerging young stars, set to power the Twins offense for years to come. Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien and Matt Wallner have been leading the charge for a revitalized Minnesota offense, which obviously bodes very well for the future. On the same day, Brooks Lee launched a grand slam at Class-AAA St. Paul, while Walker Jenkins tripled and walked twice at Class-A Ft. Myers, improving his OPS to 1.192. Those two currently rank 18th and 16th on MLB.com's list of global top prospects, and it'd no surprise to see one or both reach the top 10 next spring. Going through a pair of losing seasons (2021-2022) sucks, but for the Twins, it yielded two of the most heralded young talents in the game. On the other side of the clobbering in Cleveland, a much bleaker outlook is taking shape. Legendary manager Terry Francona has made clear he is retiring at year's end. A major turnover is about to take hold, and based on the front office's 'sell' moves at the deadline – dealing two quality vets who were under control for 2024 – they don't seem inclined to make a push next year. Cleveland will surely continue to pump out solid young arms, but as we've seen this year, that's not enough on its own. Their system lacks the star power of the Twins, and their present club can't remotely contend with Minnesota's young talent nucleus. Despite their major flaws and question marks, the Guardians still seem like the most credible short-term threat in the division. Detroit's supposed emergence from the darkness was derailed this year as they fell flat again, heading toward a seventh straight sub-.500 finish. They have some promising young players but in reality it's shown no signs of coming together. (Aside from when they're playing the Twins, that is.) The White Sox just zapped their front office as they crawl toward the end of a disaster campaign that currently has them 30 games under .500. The contention window they built toward by trading their stars and enduring seven years of cellar-dwelling resulted in one division title and zero postseason advancements; now they're back to the drawing board. In classic Sox fashion, Chicago conducted no meaningful outside search for fresh outside leadership and hired Chris Getz internally. A culture shakeup! We don't even really need to talk about the Kansas City Royals. I'm truly glad they got that title in 2015 because their fans deserve it, based on the endless purgatory they've endured before and since. This sad rudderless franchise, trudging through another 100-loss season, has no real hope of a turnaround in the remotely near future. Realistically, is there anything that can happen during the coming offseason that would give any of these teams – Guardians, Tigers, White Sox, Royals – even a .500 projection for the 2024 season? They're bad! These franchises aren't rebuilding, they're smoldering. Then you have the Twins. They're gonna run away with the division this year despite getting very little from the centerpiece players they just signed to long-term contracts. Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton are down but they are not out – MVP-caliber talents who haven't yet turned 30. They'll be surrounded by a core of young talent that includes Lewis, Julien, Wallner, Lee, Ryan Jeffers and Alex Kirilloff. Guys like Jose Miranda and Trevor Larnach should not be counted out. The farm is rock-solid. And for the first time in forever, the Twins actually have some stable continuity on the pitching side. Pablo López is locked down for years to come, as a durable 27-year-old All-Star starter with elite swing-and-miss stuff. He's accompanied by Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober as controllable and proven mid-rotation starters, as well as a returning Chris Paddack who will be 28 and full-go next year. That's only the starting point! In the bullpen, there's work to be done long-term but Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax form a rock-solid base. When the Twins hired him seven years ago, Derek Falvey spoke of building a model for sustainable contention – a concept that felt foreign to a franchise six years removed from its last playoff appearance, and reeling from a 103-loss Total System Failure. Today we can safely say we've seen Falvey's vision take hold. Assuming they finish the job this month, 2023 will mark Minnesota's fourth postseason berth in seven years under Falvey and Thad Levine. It's easy to feel confident there are more on the way, given all we've discussed. Yes, that owes in part to the utterly dismal state of the American League Central. But who cares? All that matters is taking advantage of the situation you're in, and the Twins are very well poised to do just that. The longest postseason drought in pro sports lies in the crosshairs. The Minnesota Twins are likely about the to get a bunch of shots at conquering their demon. The first is suddenly less than a month away. View full article

The Minnesota Twins missed a golden opportunity to slam the window on Cleveland at home, leaving a glimmer of hope in the division race. But they bounced back with a strong weekend in Texas to keep their distance in the Central, with a five-game lead. Now comes the final head-to-head showdown. Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/28 through Sun, 9/3 *** Record Last Week: 3-3 (Overall: 71-66) Run Differential Last Week: +4 (Overall: +51) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (5.0 GA) Last Week's Game Results: Game 132 | MIN 10, CLE 6: Lewis Grand Slam Keys Comeback Game 133 | CLE 4, MIN 2: Offense Comes Up Empty in Loss Game 134 | CLE 5, MIN 2: Twins Fall in Extras, Waste Gray Gem Game 135 | MIN 5, TEX 1: Homers and Bullpen Power Victory Game 136 | MIN 9, TEX 7: Resilient Offense Picks Up Keuchel Game 137 | TEX 6, MIN 5: Spirited Comeback Fall Shorts This Time NEWS & NOTES The Twins missed out on an unexpected waiver bonanza on the final day of August, as their waiver priority position kept them just out of range for key veterans who became freely available due to salary dumps. Making matters more painful, the Guardians – who effectively kept their hopes alive by winning two of three from Minnesota last week – claimed two relievers that could've definitely helped the Twins: Reynaldo Lopez and Matt Moore. Absent any external help, the Twins made a pair of promotions on September 1st when rosters expanded, adding reliever Brent Headrick and outfielder Andrew Stevenson. These might both be temporary additions, with some notable reinforcements on the way. Alex Kirilloff is rehabbing in St. Paul and looking about ready for a return – although the team is claiming they don't intend to activate him for the upcoming Cleveland series, preferring he get more at-bats to validate the recovery of his shoulder. Jorge Alcala, Chris Paddack and Brock Stewart are all trying to make it to the Twins bullpen in September, with varying levels of optimism. More immediate is the potential arrival of Louie Varland, who appeared in relief for the Saints for the first time on Thursday and looked phenomenal, touching 100 MPH multiple times. It appears Varland is being groomed for a short-burst bullpen role, in which he could be highly effective. With all these moving parts in motion, the Twins also made a pair of IL moves last week: Oliver Ortega was placed on the shelf with a lumbar strain, and replaced by Kody Funderburk, who had an eventful first week in the majors. Michael A. Taylor, who's been bothered by a hamstring issue that flared up on Saturday night, also went on the injured list, conveniently making room for the return of Willi Castro. Jose Miranda went on the 60-day IL to create 40-man space for Stevenson, likely putting the stamp on a lost season for the 25-year-old. HIGHLIGHTS In a familiar story for the second half, the bats paved the way for Minnesota's success, with the lineup scoring 24 runs in their three victories to overcome some shaky pitching performances. And, in a familiar story for pretty much the whole season, Donovan Solano was the scrappy veteran plug sparking the offense. Solano fueled the big comeback win on Saturday night, going 4-for-5 with a homer and four RBIs. It was one of three multi-hit games in a week that saw him finish 9-for-17, lifting his OBP to .379. Few could have guessed when they signed him in late February for $2 million, essentially an offseason afterthought, that Solano would become such a pivotal and indispensable fixture on the 2023 roster. But he most definitely is. Royce Lewis has the looks of an instant superstar, repeatedly delivering game-changing hits in pressure-packed spots. His rookie jolt has energized the entire team. Lewis' theatrics over the past week included a go-ahead grand slam on Tuesday, a game-tying three-run blast on Sunday, and then another game-tying single later in that same game. Another key contributor to the offense, and a critically important one, was Jorge Polanco. The long-tenured Twin is finally starting to find his groove after a long season of rehabbing and shaking off rust. He was simply a monster against Cleveland and Texas, picking up six hits in 21 at-bats including two doubles and two homers. Polanco drove in seven and also drew six walks. His productivity has revitalized the No. 2 spot in the order. Often overlooked by fans for whatever reason, Polanco has been a standout hitter for most of his career – and a clutch one, too. His absence in the first half was a major reason for the offense's persistent struggles. As he's showing, Polanco's return alongside Lewis can be a crucial factor in their ongoing emergence, with big moments looming ahead. Much maligned over the past couple weeks, the Twins bullpen enjoyed some healthy redemption. They picked up Kenta Maeda and Dallas Keuchel after rough outings on Monday and Saturday, rattling off clean innings and setting the stage for comeback victories. Friday night's win in Texas offered a hopeful preview of Rocco Baldelli's successful October formula: Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar and Jhoan Duran following six good innings from the starter with three perfect frames to close it out. Nine up, nine down. The starter in that game, Joe Ryan, was stellar for a second straight time after coming off the injured list, striking out seven with no walks over six innings of one-run ball. From all appearances (and results), he looks like his old self, which is a welcome development as Maeda and Keuchel go off the rails. Ryan is lining himself up for a place in a potential postseason rotation that would almost certainly be fronted by Sonny Gray, the American League ERA leader. Gray was brilliant once again in a huge game against Cleveland on Wednesday, firing seven shutout innings in an (unsuccessful) effort to will his team to a possibly season-clinching win. Gray has been downright phenomenal all year, setting himself up for a big free agent pay-day. I'd imagine he's got a pretty tight grip on Game 1 starter status at this point. For all the manufactured drama about Baldelli and the quick hooks, Gray pitched into the seventh in four of his six August starts, and ranked third among all major-league pitchers in innings thrown for the month, behind only noted workhorses Framber Valdez and Sandy Alcantara. LOWLIGHTS In spite of all the big-time relief performances last week, the bullpen's defining moment was unfortunately its worst: allowing Gray's gem on Wednesday to go to waste. That game was a medley of disaster moments – Jax and Thielbar giving up big hits, Duran skipping a wild pitch with victory a strike away, Funderburk coughing up the back-breaking home run in extras. You can't expect a bullpen to be perfect, even when going good, and these kinds of things happen. However, this latest breakdown occurred at the most inopportune time, as the Twins sought to snuff out any legitimate hope for the Guardians and instead gave them a gasp of air. Cleveland channeled that momentum into a series victory against the Rays over the weekend, and now the Guardians will be hosting Minnesota at Progressive Field this coming week with a chance to whittle the division lead down to striking distance. Annoyingly, Cleveland will be upgraded since the showdown at Target Field a week prior, with Lucas Giolito set to start on Monday, and Lopez and Moore now available in relief. Losing just one game in the standings, the Twins mostly kept their distance over the past week, but they also didn't create any further ground, meaning no one can get comfortable. The ongoing stakes of each game provide cause for apprehension, as the back end of Minnesota's rotation unravels and close games keep slipping away. I fully believe the Twins are built favorably for a postseason run: a top-heavy squad with strengths at the front of the rotation, the top of the lineup and the back of the bullpen. But they need to get there first, and they need to do it without wearing down the cornerstones they'll be counting on. TRENDING STORYLINE Are the Twins really going to leave Kirilloff in Triple-A for the Cleveland series, given its immense stakes? Especially when the alternative is sticking with Joey Gallo, who is bottoming out at the end of another bad season? Gallo is hitless in his past 23 plate appearances, and he committed multiple frustrating gaffes on the bases in the past week. He's un-rosterable at this point. The front office's odd gamble from last offseason cannot be viewed as anything more than a total failure, and yet Gallo has hung around into September anyway. Now the assorted developments that prolonged his stay are coming full-circle, with Kirilloff mashing on his rehab stint and looking ready to supplant the struggling vet. It sounds like the Twins are just not quite ready to make that move. Bafflingly. I very much understand the general sentiment to take it slow with Kirilloff, but these are special circumstances. If he's healthy, he's healthy, and wasting swings in Triple-A seems counterproductive when doing so means downgrading the quality of the Twins roster in such a significant way. The Twins cannot afford to have Gallo receiving any meaningful playing time in Cleveland this week while Kirilloff keeps playing to form in the minors. If that scenario plays some role in an undesirable result in the series, the Twins would be about as rippable for their overly conservative approach here as at the deadline. Of course, stated plans can change. We'll see what happens on Monday. Kirilloff started in St. Paul on Sunday night (where he homered for a second straight day), seemingly suggesting he will not be heading to Cleveland, at least for the opener. LOOKING AHEAD It's all on the line this week. Both the Twins and Guardians are in position to make a decisive stand in Cleveland. A sweep for the Minnesota would all but lock down the division. A sweep for Cleveland would reduce the lead to two with 22 to play. Any other result will more or less keep this race vaguely alive. The Twins will be throwing their top three starters in a series that figures to have postseason vibes. Buckle up. MONDAY, 9/4: TWINS @ GUARDIANS – RHP Pablo Lopez v. RHP Lucas Giolito TUESDAY, 9/5: TWINS @ GUARDIANS – RHP Sonny Gray v. RHP Tanner Bibee WEDNESDAY, 9/6: TWINS @ GUARDIANS – RHP Joe Ryan v. RHP Gavin Williams FRIDAY, 9/8: METS @ TWINS – TBD v. LHP Dallas Keuchel SATURDAY, 9/9: METS @ TWINS – RHP Kodai Senga v. RHP Kenta Maeda SUNDAY, 9/10: METS @ TWINS – LHP David Peterson v. RHP Pablo Lopez View full article

The Cleveland Guardians snagged both impact waiver relievers away from the Twins on Thursday, leaving Minnesota with no remaining external answers to its rapidly deteriorating bullpen corps. Help might be on the way for that unit from within, via recovering or converting arms, but it's the offense's reinforcements that should make fans most confident in the Twins avoiding a bullpen-fueled disaster in September. Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports Over their past 16 games, the Twins have gone 9-7. In doing so, they've barely nudged their AL Central lead – from 4 ½ games on August 12th to 5 games on August 31st. They're not in a bad situation, but it could feel a lot safer. And one can easily argue that if not for the bullpen's lapses in August, it would feel a lot safer. Five of the team's seven losses over the aforementioned span have seen a reliever tagged with the "L," reflecting how many games have pivoted from win (or tie) to loss on the bullpen's watch. We all have memories etched in our heads from recent weeks of key relief pitchers imploding on the mound, with disastrous results. From Dylan Floro's batting practice session to Griffin Jax's multiple meltdowns to Jhoan Duran's costly wild pitch this week, it's been a rough slog. There's no question the bullpen has been lagging and running thin, causing the front office's complacency at the deadline to look even worse than it did at the time. But that's now water under the bridge. So is the missed waiver claims. I'm not here to tell you that the bullpen hasn't been bad – only that they haven't been as bad as you might think. I'm also not here to tell you that September reinforcements are going to magically turn the bullpen around – only that it might matter less than you think. Given how many Twins games took a turn for the worse with relief pitchers on the mound lately, you'd think their bullpen ranked near the bottom of the league for August in Win Probability Added (WPA). But they didn't; they ranked 12th-highest in the majors, or better than average. (Granted, still behind almost every true contender.) By WPA, the bullpen had an overall neutral effect on the team's outcomes this past month. Again: that's not to say they've been good. They just haven't been flat-out sabotaging the team as some would like to believe. The reason it SEEMS like the relievers have been blowing everything is a familiar story from the first half: slim margins being created by the offense leaving almost no margin for error. Wednesday's game against Cleveland was a perfect example. Handed a two-run lead from Sonny Gray after seven, relievers gave up single runs in the eighth and ninth inning to tie the game, then things unraveled in the 10th. Should they have really ever been in the 10th, putting rookie Kody Funderburk in that unfortunate and ill-fated spot? They wouldn't have been, if not for the lineup going 1-for-9 with runners in scoring position, with the top five hitters combining to go 2-for-18 in the game. This has fortunately been less frequent in the second half, with the offense emerging to make stretches like Tuesday and Wednesday – where they scored four runs in 19 innings – more the exception than the norm. The better news is that Minnesota's offense has a chance to become substantially better in the very near future. I'm trying not to get myself hyped on the idea of both Byron Buxton and Alex Kirilloff – currently at Triple-A on rehab stints, with the potential to return as soon as next week – stepping in and immediately performing at their peak level. But ... is it that unthinkable that one or both could be somewhere close? They're rested up after spending some time on the sidelines. They're feeling good enough that Buxton's playing center field and Kirilloff is playing back-to-backs out of the gate on rehab. When these two are healthy and on, you can make a pretty good case they are the two best hitters on the team, and it's not like we haven't seen glimpses (I'll be it unsustained glimpses) of this prowess from both at times in 2023. Yeah, I'm intrigued by the idea of trying Chris Paddack as a reliever, or converting Louie Varland to the bullpen, or hoping Brock Stewart can come back healthy and at the same level. But those are all somewhat experimental long shots. Buxton and Kirilloff are proven commodities and cornerstone players. Their returns to the roster are likely far more imminent than the others. And while getting them back might not directly improve the bullpen, it can definitely reduce the bullpen's negative impact by reducing its pressure to constantly perform. Even with the relievers wobbling, when the Twins score, they win – they went 10-3 in August when putting up five or more runs. Reduced pressure on the bullpen also means reduced reliance on the high-leverage options at the back, which would potentially provide guys like Duran and Jax with some needed rest ahead of the postseason. If you're hoping the bullpen can be saved from within, then you should keep an eye on the reinforcements making their way back from injury. Just maybe not the ones you're thinking of. View full article

After striking out at the trade deadline, the Minnesota Twins received a surprising second chance to add key pieces, with non-contenders unloading contracts on waivers and making them available to the highest-priority bidder. The Twins were unable to take advantage of this opportunity, but the team trailing them in the Central did. Image courtesy of © Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports (Reynaldo Lopez) The Los Angeles Angels initiated the talent dump earlier this week, with word coming out that they were placing Lucas Giolito, relievers Reynaldo Rodriguez and Matt Moore, and outfielders Hunter Renfroe and Randal Grichuk on irrevocable waivers. Among other players who ended up joining this out-of-nowhere collection of quality veterans suddenly hitting the open market: Yankees OF Harrison Bader, Mets RHP Carlos Carrasco and White Sox RHP Mike Clevinger. The Twins found themselves in a favorable position as a first-place team with a record barely holding above the .500 mark. Since waiver priority is based on team record (from worst to best), Minnesota was ahead of most other contending teams who might have interest in acquiring these players for nothing but salary. Most, but certainly not all. It seems their position wasn't quite favorable enough. While the Twins reportedly placed claims on multiple players, apparently none of their targets made it to them in the waiver process, with fringe contenders readily scooping up these essentially free assets. Among those contenders, the Cleveland Guardians, trailing the Twins by five games in the AL Central with a month to go. Cleveland added Giolito to the rotation as well as Lopez and Moore to their bullpen, quickly bringing a pair of familiar foes back to the division while upgrading their small postseason chances a bit. While it's hard to blame the Twins for this particular instance, given their limited ability to influence the outcome, this really does underscore the front office's lack of action at the deadline, when they had full control over their ability to add talent. Jordan Luplow has been horrendous in the RH outfielder role and the bullpen is springing constant leaks. The Twins could've desperately used several of the players that went through waivers today, and while that's not necessarily at fault, they did put themselves in this position of desperation to begin with. Instead, they'll have to hope Byron Buxton and a handful of relievers on the comeback trail will be enough to offset their current depth weaknesses and keep Cleveland at bay. There's no more external help coming. View full article

The Twins faced a big challenge last week, facing off against first-place teams for six straight days as their overworked bullpen continues to falter. They rebounded from a tough series in Milwaukee to take three of four from a potential future playoff foe, the Texas Rangers. In holding their own against tough competition, the Twins held their ground in the AL Central as the clock ticks down on the regular season. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/21 through Sun, 8/27 *** Record Last Week: 3-3 (Overall: 68-63) Run Differential Last Week: +4 (Overall: +47) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (6.0 GA) Last Week's Game Results: Game 126 | MIL 7, MIN 3: Floro Fumbles in Middle Innings Game 127 | MIL 8, MIN 7: Bullpen Blows Lead, Bats Can't Keep Pace Game 128 | MIN 7, TEX 5: Jeffers Delivers Go-Ahead PH Homer Game 129 | MIN 12, TEX 2: Twins Rock Rangers in Dominant, Spicy Win Game 130 | TEX 6, MIN 2: Ryan Solid in Return But Pen Implodes Game 131 | MIN 7, TEX 6: Twins Erase Deficit, Win with Walk-Off BB NEWS & NOTES Last year around this time, the Twins were being constantly bombarded by crushing injury news, setting up a disastrous September that would ultimately remove them from playoff contention. This year, things are trending in a much more favorable direction. Instead of receiving update after update filled with setbacks and sad-trombones, much of the information shared out from the team lately points toward positive progress and momentum. Lately we've learned that: Byron Buxton is tentatively working toward a September return to center field (part-time, at least). Brock Stewart is ramping up again and reporting no pain after a couple of recent bullpen sessions, with the possibility of a rehab stint on the horizon. Chris Paddack, now 15 months removed from his second Tommy John surgery, is throwing in the mid-90s down in Florida and being eyed for a possible bullpen role in October. Alex Kirilloff has been taking swings and building up after giving his shoulder some time to rest. He'll take part in live batting practice on Tuesday and if that goes well, a rehab assignment could follow later in the week. Jorge Alcala (remember him?) is feeling good and will throw live BP against Buxton and Kirilloff. Alcala himself could be in line for a rehab assignment in the near future if things go smoothly. It's probably not reasonable to expect all of these guys to return and make a big impact before year's end, maybe not even most of them. But even just getting back a couple of them at semi-full capacity could make a big difference, given this first place team's makeup and needs heading into September. We're talking about some major proven talents in that mix. Already the Twins have activated Joe Ryan, who tossed five innings of one-run ball in his return against the Rangers on Saturday. Their rotation is essentially at full strength heading into the end of August, albeit with Bailey Ober starting to wobble under his workload a bit and Dallas Keuchel adding an interesting element. With 31 games left on the schedule, Minnesota holds a six-game lead over the Guardians in the Central, as they prepare to host Cleveland at Target Field with their top three starters on the mound. It's getting late early for the Guardians, who will be matching up their .450 road winning percentage against Minnesota's .590 clip at home. HIGHLIGHTS The Twins offense shows no real signs of slowing down. They gave it their all last week, pushing across 36 runs on 53 hits in six games, launching 14 home runs, as they tried to keep pace with a leaky bullpen. Royce Lewis once again took center stage in his second week back. He homered in Wednesday's game against Milwaukee, then homered again as part of a 3-for-3 Thursday night against Texas, and added a game-salvaging grand slam on Sunday. Perhaps most encouraging out of all that: Lewis showed some discipline, drawing three walks against four strikeouts. Monumental as it was, Lewis' slam against the Rangers ranked merely as the second-most exciting home run of the week for Minnesota. It's tough to compete with a pinch-hit, go-ahead, two-run blast in the eighth inning. Yeah, Ryan Jeffers did that. Michael A. Taylor kept the power surge pumping with three home runs. Max Kepler went 8-for-18 with a homer and three doubles, lifting his OPS on the season north of the .800 mark. Kyle Farmer had a much-needed productive offensive week, collecting five hits in 11 at-bats, including a pair of bombs. In a dramatic turnaround from the first half, the Twins now have an offense that can run with the big boys, and that's before you factor the potential returns of Buxton and Kirilloff. They also have a verifiable ace-level performer atop their rotation, which is not something we've been able to say in a long while. Sonny Gray spun another gem on Friday, tossing seven innings of one-run ball to lower his ERA to 3.05. That figure ranks sixth in all of baseball, and Gray is fifth in fWAR behind only Zack Wheeler, Spencer Strider, Zac Gallen and Kevin Gausman. If not for his paltry win total, Gray would be a prime contender for Cy Young consideration. But while the rotation and offense keep offering reasons to believe in this team's viability, the mounting bullpen lapses are preventing that confidence – along with their control of the AL Central – from becoming firmly solidified. LOWLIGHTS This past week, same as the last week, troubling breakdowns in the relief corps were the main source of consternation. On Tuesday, Dylan Floro entered with a one-run lead after Ober's five solid innings, then gave up five runs on six hits in one inning, turning a winnable game into a lopsided loss. The following day, Minnesota's top four relievers – Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar, Emilio Pagán – combined to give up five runs on seven hits in 4 ⅔ innings. On Saturday, Jax had his second total meltdown in 11 days, entering in the ninth of a tie game and giving up four earned while recording just one out as he completely lost command of the strike zone. The week ended on a high note for the bullpen, which came through brilliantly in a 13-inning grudge match on Sunday, but that hardly negates the alarms being raised by this unit. The rough stretches for Thielbar – who gave up two runs in three innings, though he threw a dominant 11th frame on Sunday – and Jax are most worrisome. Jax has a 6.48 ERA and 6.39 FIP in 16 ⅔ innings since the All-Star break, with dwindling strikeout rates and deteriorating control. This isn't just bad luck anymore. If Jax continues to trend in the wrong direction, the long-shot scenarios of Stewart or Alcala coming back and handling high leverage work suddenly become rather essential instead of luxurious. Otherwise the Twins might need to get creative by, say, converting Louie Varland into a short-burst relief role, which they've hinted at. TRENDING STORYLINE Willi Castro started a rehab assignment in St. Paul over the weekend and his return to the Twins is looking imminent, though an anticipated paternity list trip will delay him a bit. Rocco Baldelli will welcome his cherished gadget player, with Castro bringing speed, defensive versatility and switch-hitting ability to make himself a skipper's best friend. The question of course becomes: who goes to make room? The most likely answer seems to be Jordan Luplow, who has cooled off significantly after a hot start for the Twins, batting .080 with one RBI in his past 10 games. That would however leave the Twins lacking for a quality RH outfield bat, which is not a role Castro fills particularly well. Personally, I wonder if the Twins might think about placing their slumping-again shortstop Carlos Correa on the injured list to rest up his feet. He's looked rough lately and was especially brutal on Sunday, where he went 0-for-4 with a GIDP and error. The Twins can get by for awhile with Farmer and Lewis splitting time at short – especially with Castro returning to provide depth at third. They'd miss Correa's glove, but wouldn't be losing much offensively. And if the Twins think this plan would have any real chance of getting C4 into a better place by the time October rolls around, it's worth a shot. LOOKING AHEAD Cleveland is coming to town, with their season more or less on life support. The Guardians could vault themselves back into legitimate contention by sweeping the series, thus closing the gap in the Central to three games, but anything less than a series victory is going to leave them in pretty dire straits. Meanwhile, a sweep by the Twins would essentially seal the deal, leaving them ahead by nine games with 28 left to play. A tough series in Texas follows over the weekend, so needless to say, Minnesota needs to be focused on taking care of business in their final home series against the shabby Clevelanders. Get it done here and you can more or less put it on cruise control for September. MONDAY, 8/28: GUARDIANS @ TWINS – RHP Xzavion Curry v. RHP Kenta Maeda TUESDAY, 8/29: GUARDIANS @ TWINS – RHP Gavin Williams v. RHP Pablo Lopez WEDNESDAY, 8/30: GUARDIANS @ TWINS – RHP Tanner Bibee v. RHP Sonny Gray FRIDAY, 9/1: TWINS @ RANGERS – RHP Joe Ryan v. RHP Max Scherzer SATURDAY, 9/2: TWINS @ RANGERS – RHP Bailey Ober v. LHP Jordan Montgomery SUNDAY, 9/3: TWINS @ RANGERS – RHP Kenta Maeda v. RHP Jon Gray View full article

Hans Birkeland wrote a piece here shortly after the deadline suggesting this very thing. Honestly it's very plausible.

Your opinion is that trying to upgrade the middle relief on this contending team would be trading for the sake of it? No real need there?

Your advice is noted and dismissed but thanks anyway Van. Do you actually have a point to make or anything interesting to say? Or are you just going to keep objecting to nothing in particular?

Well I was referring more to acquiring him last year as the example to follow – he was a little better at that point, and there were plenty like him on this year's market. But yes, I would feel better about the outlook for the bullpen with Fulmer in it as opposed to without him. That's kinda why I'm so bewildered, it would not have taken much to satisfy the minimum need here. There cupboard is just empty. You wouldn't take Fulmer over Winder/Sands/Ortega/Balazovic?

Yes because the whole point is to take hindsight out of it and evaluate the decisions based on how they were made at the time. Did you think they were horrible trades at the time? If so I'm sure it's documented here since you're a very regular commenter. Let's see it. Maybe the Twins will win the World Series this year in spite of doing nothing at the deadline. It was still bad decision-making, bad process.

This is fair. I was gonna go with an actual hot take headline like "Actually the 2022 Deadline Was Good" but it felt like a bridge too far lol

At the 2022 trade deadline, the Twins front office evaluated their needs honestly, and acted decisively based on the information they had available. Regardless of the outcome, I commend their approach. The opposite is true of this year's downright negligent handling of the trade deadline. We are already seeing the cost, and it threatens to be far greater than a few lost prospects. Image courtesy of Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports With the benefit of hindsight, no one would say Minnesota's big trades at the deadline last year worked out. If they could go back and do it all over again, knowing what they know now, the front office certainly would not have traded away a bunch of prospects for Tyler Mahle and Jorge Lopez. But you know what? They didn't have the benefit of hindsight when they made those moves. All they had was the information available in real-time, which was this: The Twins were in first place in a winnable division, and they had some clear flaws that they needed to address if they were going to make a real run at the thing. Last July, those needs were pretty significant. They needed a credible frontline starter to plug in alongside Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan, and a high-caliber reliever to complement Jhoan Duran in the late innings. The Twins swung big. They gave up decent prospect packages to acquire Mahle and Lopez all along with extra years of service for both. The front office knew the risk factors attached to both players -- Mahle's injury concerns and Lopez's unconvincing long-term track record -- but didn't know both would come fully to fruition. The front office also couldn't have guessed that even if both pickups played exactly up to optimistic expectations, it wouldn't have mattered because the entire roster collapsed in an injury epidemic. All the Twins front office knew at the time was where they were at and what they needed. They acted accordingly. The last takeaway you'd want the club to draw from this experience is that risks aren't worth taking. After all, some of this regime's greatest and most impactful moves have been the payoffs of bold risk-taking, for example: Dealing their 100+ MPH throwing top pitching prospect Brusdar Graterol to the Dodgers for Kenta Maeda. Dealing their 100+ MPH throwing top draft pick Chase Petty to the Reds for Sonny Gray. Trading their reigning batting champ Luis Arraez to the Marlins for Pablo Lopez. Those moves led us to where the Twins are at today, with an elite rotation featuring three playoff-caliber starters. And for some reason, upon reaching this long-awaited moment they've been building toward, the front office passed up the opportunity to provide much-needed help for that unit and the rest of this team as it aims to reach the postseason and snap a 20-year curse. The team's needs at this past deadline were lesser in scale, but no less clearly evident. They needed bullpen help -- ideally a high-leverage arm, but even middle relief depth would help. Injuries to Brock Stewart and Jorge Alcala, combined with Jorge Lopez proving unusably bad, left the team's planned late-inning core severely lacking, in need of support. Adding one or two relatively trusted relief arms of the Michael Fulmer ilk would've done worlds for this unit's depth and stability. The cost for such assets would've been vastly less than a Mahle or Lopez haul. It was, seemingly, a pretty simple assignment. Alas, the Twins front office failed it. Aside from a swap of struggling relievers that brought in Dylan Floro, they sat on their hands. And the negligence of this approach is only growing more apparent and upsetting as the exact scenario they were supposed to be protecting against plays out before our eyes. Minnesota's bullpen has fallen apart since the trade deadline. Over the past 20 days they've collectively been sub-replacement level with a -0.2 fWAR that ranks 26th in the majors. The have a 6.13 ERA during this span, compared to 3.01 for the starters. The relief corps completely melted down in Milwaukee over the past two days, blowing mid-game leads in both losses. Floro was at the head of the struggles with a nightmare outing on Tuesday. Now the Twins head into a four-game series against the Rangers in a beleaguered state, with Duran having thrown 33 pitches in taking the loss Wednesday. I'm not trying to oversimplify things here, by suggesting that one or two reliever additions at the deadline were going to definitively change the course of this bullpen. Maybe the acquisitions wouldn't work out; we've been there. Maybe they wouldn't have made enough difference; if Duran and other late-inning arms can't get on track, there will be no saving this bullpen. But to not even try? To not even add a single impact reliever who might reduce your reliance on Emilio Pagan to succeed in high leverage, or Caleb Thielbar to stay healthy, or Jax and Duran to not get run into the ground? It's truly one of the most baffling things I've ever seen. And if the Twins fall short in the playoffs, AGAIN, because they are one quality relief arm short ... or worse yet, miss the playoffs entirely because their bullpen isn't equipped for the task of holding up down the stretch ... it'll be tough to forgive this bizarrely complacent lapse from a front office that uncharacteristically played scared this time around. View full article

Ah yes, I now I realize that was very devoid of context. It's a snapshot from the rolling xwOBA charts on Statcast, which progressively track hitter success against a pitcher. Basically what that shows is that Duran was holding opponents way below the league average consistently, but it's risen sharply (and sustainably) of late. But starting to dip back down now!

Royce Lewis delivered in his much-anticipated return from the injured list as the Twins enjoyed a restful, winning week at home and widened their lead in the AL Central to a season-high six games. As we turn toward the home stretch, the Twins are in the driver's seat, with the best odds to win their division outside of the MLB-dominating Dodgers and Braves. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/14 through Sun, 8/20 *** Record Last Week: 3-2 (Overall: 65-60) Run Differential Last Week: +4 (Overall: +43) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (6.0 GA) Last Week's Game Results: Game 121 | MIN 5, DET 3: Wallner Grand Slam Lifts Twins to Win Game 122 | DET 8, MIN 7: Rare Jax Implosion Proves Decisive Game 123 | MIN 5, PIT 1: Twins Cruise Behind Pablo's Gem Game 124 | PIT 7, MIN 4: Early Leads Evaporates for Gray Game 125 | MIN 2, PIT 0: Dallas Deals in Series-Clinching Shutout NEWS & NOTES As expected, Royce Lewis was activated as soon as the Twins returned home from their long road trip, starting at third base and batting third in Tuesday night's series opener against Detroit. To make room on the roster, Willi Castro was moved to the injured list with a mild oblique strain, delaying any hard roster decisions for now. Later in the week, Minnesota swapped out Jordan Balazovic for Oliver Ortega in the leaky bullpen. Joe Ryan started a rehab assignment in St. Paul, where he pitched on Friday night and threw four innings of one-run ball. HIGHLIGHTS The Twins offense has rounded into form. They didn't exactly end the week on a high note, scoring two runs as the Pirates stymied them with a bullpen game, but that kind of day is now more the exception than the norm. Minnesota entered play on Sunday ranked second among American League teams in runs scored since the All-Star break, and first in wOBA. Games like Sunday's, where pitchers need to be near-flawless to win, have become far more rare. The team's improvement is being fueled by an emerging young core of hitters, which is especially exciting. Lewis made a huge impact right off the bat, coming through with a clutch RBI single in his first game back, and then following with a three-hit showing on Wednesday. Edouard Julien opened up with a four-hit game and drove in four runs on the week. Matt Wallner continues to establish himself as a real difference-maker with his power and poise. His game-winning grand slam on Tuesday was without question the biggest highlight of the week, salvaging victory from the jaws of defeat against a Tigers team that weirdly tormented the Twins all year. Wallner almost did it again the next day. Pablo López extended his scoreless innings streak to 18 with another stellar outing on Friday night, shutting out the Pirates over six to improve to 4-0 with a 0.36 ERA in August. A terrific showing, but López he was shockingly upstaged two days later by Dallas Keuchel, who managed to carry a perfect game through six innings before getting chased by a one-out double in the seventh. He finished with 6 ⅓ frames of scoreless one-hit ball, lowering his ERA to a respectable 4.85 after getting clobbered by the Phillies his last time out. Keuchel is obviously very limited by his sluggish velocity and inability to miss bats, but on Sunday he executed his gameplan to perfection against a bad team, attacking the zone and inducing endless grounders. The results were as good as anyone could have asked for. It was fun to watch, and cool to see for a player who's by all accounts a good guy and teammate. That doesn't necessarily mean the Twins should be planning to let him make his next scheduled start, but we'll get to that later. LOWLIGHTS The Twins bullpen is becoming a big problem. And it's one that the front office will increasingly face scrutiny for after failing to address it in any meaningful way when they had the chance. The swap of struggling relievers that brought aboard Dylan Floro – Minnesota's only move resembling a deadline addition – hasn't been all that helpful, as he's posted a 1.64 WHIP through eight appearances as a Twin. Floro came in against Pittsburgh on Saturday and immediately yielded a run-scoring hit, then walked two straight batters in the next inning. Ugly stuff. The idea that a middle of the bullpen carried by the likes of Floro and Balazovic, whose brutal outing on Saturday earned him an immediate demotion to Triple-A, is looking like some very faulty logic from the Twins brass. Worse yet, the shortcomings of the middle relievers are being magnified by the lapsing high-leverage horses in the late innings. Griffin Jax had his worst performance of the season on Wednesday, coughing up four earned runs in one inning against a bad Detroit offense, with each run proving very costly in an eventual 8-7 loss. The appearance raised his ERA from 2.96 to 3.62, just like that. To his credit, Jax did bounce back with a couple of big outings in the Pittsburgh series. Meanwhile, Jhoan Duran has been far from dominant for some time now. His previously unhittable repertoire has been anything but over the past couple months – Duran has gotten through an appearance without giving up a hit only once since June. He gave up four knocks in three appearances last week, including his sixth home run. (The same total he allowed all of last year.) It's tough to know what to make of Duran's diminishing effectiveness in this regard. The velocity and stuff are still there for the most part. He still struck out seven hitters across the three innings of work last week. But opponents are finding ways to solve his arsenal, with nearly a .900 OPS against the flame-throwing right-hander since the start of July. Duran needs to make some adjustments of his own in the remaining weeks of the regular season to turn the tides. It might be fair to say that no other single player on the roster is more pivotal to Minnesota's chances of success in the playoffs. TRENDING STORYLINE Who starts next Saturday, when the rotation spot presently occupied by Keuchel swings back around? That's now the big looming question. It figures to be an important game against a tough lineup with Max Scherzer scheduled as the opposing starter. Do the Twins view Ryan as ready? He only threw 71 pitches on Friday night and while the results were solid, he did give up a home run and was oddly erratic, throwing only 38 of those pitches (53%) for strikes. Keuchel should not be viewed as an option despite his successful results on Sunday against the Pirates. It's almost impossible to envision him putting forth a competitive outing against a Rangers offense that leads the AL in OPS by a sizable margin. Louie Varland is the wild-card here. He's been excellent of late at Triple-A (0.70 ERA in his last four starts) and, while not an ideal matchup against Texas given his HR-proneness, he probably would give the Twins their best chance of the three. Unfortunately, the schedule lines up in a bit of a tricky way for Varland, who last pitched on Wednesday. The Saints are off on Monday, as always, and if he starts Tuesday at Omaha, Varland would be on three days rest for the Saturday turn. I wonder if the Twins will have him make a very short (2-3 inning) start on Tuesday, to keep open the possibility of a weekend promotion. LOOKING AHEAD On Monday, the Twins will have their third day off in a weeklong span. So they'll be as rested as they're gonna be the rest of the way as they head into the most challenging week on the remaining schedule: six games against first-place teams, including four against the Rangers, who lead the AL in run differential (+189). TUESDAY, 8/22: TWINS @ BREWERS – RHP Bailey Ober v. LHP Wade Miley WEDNESDAY, 8/23: TWINS @ BREWERS – RHP Kenta Maeda v. RHP Corbin Burnes THURSDAY, 8/24: RANGERS @ TWINS – LHP Andrew Heaney v. RHP Pablo Lopez FRIDAY, 8/25: RANGERS @ TWINS – RHP Dane Dunning v. RHP Sonny Gray SATURDAY, 8/26: RANGERS @ TWINS – RHP Max Scherzer v. LHP Dallas Keuchel SUNDAY, 8/27: RANGERS @ TWINS – RHP Jordan Montgomery v. RHP Bailey Ober View full article