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Nashvilletwin

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  1. Nashvilletwin
    Including all players who played for the Twins (so exclude the Senators) and based on their total careers - not just their seasons as a Twin: RF: Olivia CF: Kirby LF: Winfield 1B: Thome 2B: Sir Rodney SS: Molitor 3B: Harmon C: Mauer DH: Big Papi SPs: Bert, Johan, Kaat, Pascual, Sweet Music RPs: Nathan, Aguilera, Reardon, Every Day Eddie, Worthington
  2. Nashvilletwin
    Use our trade capital or cash on pitching - we still need at least a #2 starter and could probably use an inning eating #5-6 type to hedge Paddack and Varland (why do Gray and Maeda just seem to still fit those roles so well?). Filling those two slots is our biggest priority. So we should go internal at 1B. Lots of options and the solution could very well be dynamic over the course of the season. A lot will depend on AK’s health and how Severino, Lee (who should never be a 1B) and Miranda look coming out of spring training and early in the season. We still have too many position players chasing too few spots - so we have the necessary depth to cover it even without Solano (and Polanco if that’s the case) coming back. Btw, nice job Nick not mentioning JG as an option. Geez, I hope that ship has left port never to return.
  3. Nashvilletwin
    My take away from this article is that there are essentially no internal options to adequately replace Gray. The rotation next year starts with Lopez (a clear #1), Ryan and Ober (decent #3’s). Paddack, who could be a #2, #3 or #4 in terms of performance, will be the fourth starter and we will need to see how many innings he can put up over the course of the season. Varland and SWR and others are going to be our spot starters when injuries and needed rest invariably call. So there is a gaping hole for an innings eating #2-#3 type who will need to be acquired from outside the organization. The good news is we have either the trade capital or cash - depending on whom we want to keep - to make that happen. Quite honestly, a bit of an over pay for Gray on a two year deal would be ideal. He fits our need perfectly and likes it here presumably. It shouldn’t be that hard to get done.
  4. Nashvilletwin
    Wondering why they waited until late October when it was pretty obvious in August that surgery was going to be the necessary course of action. We will know more later, but it sounds as if those two months might be quite valuable if the goal is to be ready by or near opening day.
  5. Nashvilletwin
    Super recap Seth. Probably 4-5 solid major leaguers on this list debuting in volume by ‘24 or 25 (maybe Cossetti in ‘26 depending on Vasquez). Jenkins had a short stint, but his hitting was dang good for coming in straight off his senior year in high school.
  6. Nashvilletwin
    I’m not sure that’s right. Let’s assume the Twins win out and get to 89 wins. If any team gets to 90, the Twins are #3. TX already has 89 wins. So let’s assume Seattle sweeps TX; thus, Seattle and TX both end up 89 wins tying the Twins. If the Astros win zero or one game, they don’t get to 89 and it’s a two way tie for the AL West between Seattle and TX. TX wins that tiebreak (which will be the case even if Seattle sweeps this week) and Twins are the #2. This is the only scenario for the Twins to get the #2 seed. If the Astros win two games, all three end up tied for the AL West and, as you point out, Seattle therefore wins the division and the Twins are #3. Seattle and Houston cannot tie by themselves at 89 wins.
  7. Nashvilletwin
    At the moment, there is only one path to us getting the #2 seed: 1. Astros win against Seattle tonight and lose at least 2 of 3 vs. AZ. 2. Seattle lose tonight against the Astros and win exactly 3 of 4 from TX. 3. Texas lose against LAA tonight and lose exactly 3 of 4 against Seattle. 4. Twins win last 5. In this scenario the Twins, Astros, and Rangers all end up with 89 wins and Seattle finishes with 88. Since we own the tiebreak with Texas and Houston, we get the #2 seed. Jim Carey in Dumb and Dumber comes to mind. But hey, one never knows.
  8. Nashvilletwin
    Yes, this order would be fine, but in round 2. Let’s just keep winning this week and see what happens. Who knows?
  9. Nashvilletwin
    No Gallo?
  10. Nashvilletwin
    Maeda followed by Winder in game 3 if necessary. Perfectly fine with that.
  11. Nashvilletwin
    Yeah, let’s get a win tomorrow and pull for an O’s sweep of the Astros. If that happens, three back with the tiebreaker is doable given our schedule - we could go on a little run and maybe win 7 or 8 of the last 9. Who knows?
  12. Nashvilletwin
    Arraez obviously is now basically a perennial all-star who will win another batting title while leading his team to a possible playoff berth. Steer is probably the second most valuable position player on a Reds team battling for the playoffs and would be leading the Twins in virtually every offensive category (if Rocco ever let him play). He will likely finish in the top three in NL ROY and is probably closer to being an all star than any other Twins player except Lewis. CES was probably the headliner for Reds in the deal and is off to a great start. There’s a lot of room between the cup and the lip, but the values of both Steer and CES are significantly higher today than 12 months ago. You are correct that we will need to see a lot more out of Steer and CES before we can say the trade was a franchise altering screwup by our FO. But you must admit, there is definitely a non-zero possibility of that and there’s no chance that the opposite could happen. Both Steer and CES likely currently project as long term, successful major leaguers with some all-star potential for whom our return was less than negligible.
  13. Nashvilletwin
    I agree with much of your post, particularly your point about accountability for development. However, even though Mahle started the season in the rotation, there was much discussion and speculation about his health throughout the off season. Many of us, including myself, had the under on Mahle pitching 100 innings well before the season started. With Maeda in the same camp (I was wrong about Maeda - I think I set the over under at 150 innings combined for the two), the FO had to make a move. If Mahle’s good health had been a certainty, I think it’s possible they would not have done the Lopez-Arraez trade. If for any reason, that’s not the case, then it still probably speaks to the quality of pitching they expected from Mahle if injury free. Regardless, we are where we are - which is playoff bound and in a great spot to compete with a bright future ahead. Lopez is a wonderful addition and we all hope he anchors our rotation for several years.
  14. Nashvilletwin
    I agree with you that the Lopez - Arraez trade was a necessary move and a good deal for both clubs. But let’s not forget that it was precipitated by the failure of the Mahle trade. Mahle was supposed to be Lopez - but when it became obvious that Mahle would not fill that role, an aggressive move had to be made. The Mahle trade was never the right move for three reasons. First, Mahle was never really consistently very good (he was just ok) and had recent injury issues/concerns. Second, the Twins probably didn’t quite know how good a ballplayer they had in Steer; clearly he was behind several current players/prospects in the pecking order to whom Steer is now clearly superior. Third, that particular trade (Mahle for Steer and CES - who may turn out to be the even bigger gem) was too risky given the fundamental flaws of last season’s club. Yes, hindsight is 20/20, but breakdowns in player evaluations and an overestimation of the teams capabilities made that trade tough for us from the get go. This is possibly why the FO, wisely IMHO, pretty much stood pat this season.
  15. Nashvilletwin
    You don’t know that. What about Miranda, Larnach, Kiriloff, Wallner, etc. - all or most of whom were higher ranked? Who knows what we offered and what they wanted. Besides, that only assumes you make the trade in the first place. There is a difference between being “aggressive” and making ill-conceived, risky moves. Yes, you need to make moves - I agree 100%. But the Mahle trade was a reach from the start. And because the trade was such a disaster, we ended up getting Lopez for Luis, CES and Steer - that’s three ultra bonafide players and existing or potential all-stars (and spare us the Salas upside), Sometimes it’s ok to stand pat (like at this year’s deadline) and sometimes it makes sense to roll the dice (Lopez-Arraez for example when SP help was truly needed when it was apparent Mahle wasn’t going to work). BTW, are you sure you like Julien more? Steer plays an extremely competent 1B, 2B, 3B and LF. He hits against both lefties and righties - unlike (Rocco’s use of) Julien. He’d be leading the Twins in hits, runs, extra base hits, HRs, RBIs, ABs and Games Played, How about Kiriloff? Steer or Kiriloff? Don’t get me wrong, I love both Julien and Kiriloff. But Steer is a legit MLBer, and given his use by his manager on a playoff calibre team, mind you, has outproduced both of them (and every other Twin for that matter) this season. CES isn’t far behind.
  16. Nashvilletwin
    Yeah, a Maeda/Ober combo as the #3 might be an alternative. Still time to make that decision.
  17. Nashvilletwin
    I’m wondering if a RH batter hitting .270 with 22 dingers, 82 RBIs and an OPs of .815 in over 540 ABs playing in 147 games would be considered our best hitter, if not team MVP? Fleeced. BTW, that’s also how you develop a young player with just 28 career major league games prior to this season. You let the player play to see what you have. The Reds did and now look what they have.
  18. Nashvilletwin
    Steer would be the best hitter on the Twins this year. That Mahle trade was literally the worst ever: a) was an unnecessary, risky strategic move; b) we gave up a ton and got zippo; and c) its utter failure precipitated the Lopez Arraez trade.
  19. Nashvilletwin
    2024 may very well be a transition year (maybe 2025, too); however, not to Jenkins, but more likely Rodriguez. My understanding is that he is only playing CF in the minors and Jenkins projects more as a corner OFer. CF over the next two years will most likely be a combo of Martin, Castro and, yes, Gordon. That solution would be plenty good enough. In 2026 one of Rodriguez or Jenkins takes center and the other plays a corner (unless Martin proves himself and then both Jenkins and Rodriguez move to the corners - think about how cool that is!). Buxton will, sadly, likely be long retired by then. Lewis stays in the IF at 3B and Lee is at 2B. Kiriloff ideally will be at 1B and Julien will be traded ala Arraez for pitching. Jeffers plus one of our up and coming catchers are behind the dish. There is plenty of current and approaching talent in the organization to fill all the remaining utility roles. That is one hell of an exciting young and inexpensive (excluding Correa) position player lineup. The future is quite bright.
  20. Nashvilletwin
    Couldn’t agree more - a first round bye would be huge for this team (or any team for that matter). The way the schedule is lining up for the rest of the year, it’s not outside the realm of reasonable probability that the Twins could go on a big run. Regardless, having solid momentum going into the playoffs would be a big plus for the confidence of this club given our most recent playoff history. Keep the pedal to the metal and see what happens!
  21. Nashvilletwin
    Love Wallner, but the jury’s still out on him too. 100% agree - Gallo ABs (and $11MM) were wasted in terms of player development and future trade value - regardless of whether all or some were allocated to Larnach, Wallner and/or someone else. But the point remains the same - Larnach is unlikely going to get his shot to be an every day major leaguer here in Minnesota at this point. And he knows it. And so he probably prays he gets a shot somewhere else, ala Steer et al.
  22. Nashvilletwin
    Your suggestion is exactly my point about why Larnach prays every night to be traded. Yeah, just what he wants - to be kept in AAA for most or all of another year as “depth”. The man wants to be a major leaguer - not a permanent AAAer. For crying out loud, the Twins spent $11MM on Joey Gallo and gave him hundreds of ABs while Larnach has festered in St.Paul. Larnach must be shaking his head wondering how much better he’d be if he had those major league ABs (and how much more valuable he might be for the Twins in the trade market - his value couldn’t really be any lower now.). Honestly, Larnach must be wondering how much the organization thinks of him with Gallo having played nearly the entire season. Not much is the answer. Meanwhile, Larnach is in AAA thinking Garlick looks like his best career ceiling with the Twins. Free the man - he needs another organization. He deserves it.
  23. Nashvilletwin
    Excellent point. But let’s say we do want another top end starter but don’t want extra payroll. One way to achieve that is to resign Gray. So, assuming Gray costs $25MM +, would we rather have Gray and Larnach, or Kepler and Polanco (Gallo’s $11 MM I’m already assuming is in the pot)? We’d have to trade a lot more prospect capital than Larnach to come up with a starter like Gray.
  24. Nashvilletwin
    Or we could not pick up the options and use the $18MM or so on a FA starter. But, you are most likely correct, both options are probably going to be picked up and that means less/no room for Larnach. If I’m Larnach I’m praying every night that I get traded to a team that will give me a true shot - not the up and down circus he’s had here in Minnesota. He has nothing else to prove in AAA and he’s not getting younger. Free the man - let him have his shot at what he has worked hard for his entire life, namely to be a major league ballplayer. He’s earned that shot in our organization and he’s damn well good enough.
  25. Nashvilletwin
    Agree - the best comp is obvious: he’s Robert Redford as Roy Hobbs in The Natural.
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