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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Too bad DeAndrade hasn't been able to get on the field. Was hoping he could get some innings to make up for the time he's missed. I like his potential as a fielder, but I do have some concerns about his bat. Shame he's not getting the ABs. (and it sucks having good prospects fighting injuries) Great to see Rosario doing well; he seems recovered fully from his injury and is still hammering the ball. Nice to see him making good contact. It'll be interesting to see where the Twins start him next season: AA or AAA? Either way, I expect to see him in Saint Paul fairly quickly and it's good to see a RH corner OF bat developing. Still has some questions, but boy the ball explodes off his bat!
  2. jmlease1
    No, let's credit the people that deserve it: Falvey, the scouting department, the developmental staff, etc. Not the cheap-ass ownership, who were part if keeping minor league salaries low and conditions absurd for decades. Still haven't seen anything to show that ownership deserves credit for the farm system; they presided on the decline of the farm system previously just as much as the current rise.
  3. jmlease1
    I think that's right. I'm a fan of Rosario, but he's not ready to face MLB pitching, doesn't play a premium defensive position, and unless he's made a leap from a hitting perspective that we're all missing then there's no way he'll stick on an MLB roster for the season. It's tough to stash position players on the MLB roster when you can't forecast any kind of real role for them. Raya, on the other hand, would be someone that a team could slot in to be the last man in the bullpen, do some long relief, etc and see what he's got. Much easier for a bad team to carry him as a reliever for a season while trying to refine his pitches. He must be protected.
  4. jmlease1
    I'm not giving the Pohlads (who aren't involved in the day-to-day decision-making of the baseball operations and aren't making prospect trades or draft picks or hiring developmental staff) credit for the farm system. Unless someone can show that the Twins are substantially outspending other teams or have made other financial investments that are above and beyond other franchises, they receive no points and may god have mercy on their souls.
  5. jmlease1
    I get it, and I don't disagree. And I think the twins have a philosophy of building their bullpen on the cheap by seeking out reclamation projects that they think they can improve by mechanical adjustments, changes in pitch mix, etc, and taking starters who flamed out and transitioning them to the bullpen. For the most part it's worked, but they're going to miss on some guys from time to time because so many relievers simply aren't consistent performers from year to year. It'll be interesting to see where guys like can and Hamilton land this season: will they put up a big year and be a real late-inning option, or are they going to be just another guy again? Look at someone like Pagan: he was pretty meh in 2024, but was (surprisingly) good in 2023 after being decidedly below average in 2022.
  6. jmlease1
    Cano was 3 years ago and in 2022 was unplayable as his usual wild self. Yes, he was great in 2023, but regressed back at age 30 in 2024 to being much more like Alcala or Sands. I suspect 2023 will be a fluke year. Coulumbe was hurt in 2022, great for Balto in 2023, and hurt in 2024 at age 34. Do you want to pay Coulumbe his $4M option in 2025? I guess they missed on Hoffman, but so did a lot of teams: Phillies were way down on the waiver claim. And Hoffman had to go down to AAA with them to figure it out. I'm pretty sure I recall people grousing about the Twins wasting a spot on a 30-year old retread who had never done much in MLB a the time. Hamilton is a pretty fungible reliever. Good in 2023, meh in 2024. he would have been maybe the 5th or 6th best reliever for the Twins in 2024, has gotten hurt in 2023 and 2024...he's just another guy. Do I like him as a bullpen option more than say...Josh Winder? Not really. I think every franchise has a list like this of pitchers who the team traded or released that turned around and had 1-3 good seasons relieving for someone else.
  7. jmlease1
    I understood the Okert signing: they were looking for a 2nd lefty and Okert has been and was for the Twins very good against LH hitters. If he'd been close to his career average against RH hitters he might have been viable, but he was abysmal. 10 years ago he might have had a role as a LOOGY, but unless he figures out a way to survive against righties, he's cooked. It was a reasonable way to backup Thielbar, but it just didn't work. the jackson one never made much sense to me.
  8. jmlease1
    No. As good as Santana was at 1B, you just can't accumulate the kind of value and make the number of defensive plays there that you can at SS or CF or C. And it's not like there wasn't elite play at those positions in 2024. Santana deserves the AL Gold Glove at 1B (we'll see if he gets it, or if it goes to someone more famous, though)
  9. jmlease1
    I actually think the bullpen is in decent shape overall for 2025, assuming we don't suddenly dump Jax & Duran for salary reasons. They have 2 real needs: a consistent 2 inning reliever that can go every 3 days or so and a LH option that doesn't get destroyed by RH hitters. Duran, Jax, Sands, and Alcala form a pretty good late-inning bullpen spine, which also means that Topa & Stewart (who are very good when healthy and rarely healthy) are value-added options rather than people you're counting on for significant innings. If Stewart is healthy again, great. but we don't need to bet on him being our 2nd or 3rd best reliever. But asking Alcala to go 2 innings hasn't gone great and moving Sands into higher leverage roles means you'd rather have him pitch 1 later inning twice in 3 days than 2 middle innings once in 3 days. I'd look at Varland for the 2 inning role, personally. And I'm increasingly on board with the idea of Preilipp at a LH option: I just don't think he's likely to be a starting option with his health issues, but he has the pitches to not only be death to LH hitters but hold his own nicely against RH as well. Mock bullpen for 2025: Duran, Jax, Sands, Alcala, Topa/Stewart, Varland, Preilipp, LH to be named later. (Assume at least one of Stewart or Topa won't be ready for Spring Training) Move on from Okert. They probably cant bear to move on from Thielbar. Maybe he can hack it as the second LH, but... That's a pretty good bullpen even if they can't find someone better/more consistent that what's left of Thielbar, especially if at least one of Topa/Stewart is mostly healthy, instead of both of them being zeroes. The biggest question mark is Varland, who has the velocity and stuff to be effective as a reliever, but has also been hit pretty hard. Duran, Jax, and Sands are pretty durable, and Alcala looks recovered from his injury. there's a lot of velocity there and some wicked breaking balls to boot. But having that 2 inning guy will be important to keep the back end fresh enough that you don't have so many guys pitching back to back. Maybe it's Varland. Maybe it's Paddack. Maybe it's Raya? But I think the options are there internally.
  10. jmlease1
    Helman might be able to hold down a utility role just fine...if he can stay healthy. hasn't played a full season since 2022, hasn't played close to a full season. He would have gotten a shot with the twins long before this season if he'd been able to keep himself on the field. I'm fine with giving him a shot, but the injuries are concerning, especially for a Twins franchise that has really struggled with the injury bug over the past few years. Farmer will 100% be gone. I expect someone will take a chance on him for another season before he heads towards retirement and a long career coaching (if he wants it, and it sounds like he does). Heck, if he's ready to retire now I'd offer him a coaching job. Good dude, knows the game. Just maybe can't play it very well any longer.
  11. jmlease1
    Billy Martin was a brilliant manager and an alcoholic maniac. A genius baseball man and a vile, broken human being. One of the greatest turnaround artists in baseball history and one of the most self-destructive people in baseball history (and there's a long list of incredibly self-destructive people in baseball's very long history, and Billy is still top 5). I'm not sure he's the solution, LOL. There's no real evidence that having "too many" guys who play a JD Drew-style of baseball is harmful, in part because it's much more about the total talent, not the style. If you have enough guys that play to JD's level, then you're going to be good. If you don't, you're not. If the twins had 6 guys in the lineup all season with an OPS+ of 125 or better that played station to station baseball, drew walks, didn't steal bases, and had more doubles off the wall than infield hits...they'd have won the division going away. The problem isn't a JD Drew style, it's that not enough guys actually hit at that level. Could they have manufactured a few more runs, especially when everyone was slumping at the plate, by playing a more contact-oriented game, with a hit & run style, stealing bases, etc? Maybe. but it takes a lot more things going right to string singles into runs consistently. Luis Arraez won another batting title this year, and was fun to watch. But was he actually good? 80% of his hits were singles. Matt Wallner might have been frustrating to watch K, but he was substantially better than Arraez this season, even if he was a station to station player with a lot of HRs, and a lot of K's. Wallner wasn't just better at getting on base than Arraez, he was significantly better at it, and his hits were more often more impactful. A walk's as good as a hit. Pretty sure I've heard that somewhere.
  12. jmlease1
    Carlos swiped 4 bags without being caught and generally did a solid job on the basepaths for someone who is pretty dang slow.
  13. jmlease1
    Larnach will probably be better next season with a full off-season to heal up the turf toe that he battled all year. But overall the twins are not great and frequently not aggressive baserunning. Some of that is injury related, some of that is an unwillingness to turn some guys loose. For example, Julien has good ability to swipe bags and has the minor league track record behind him (and he walks enough that he's certainly had opportunities). But they don't send him often.
  14. jmlease1
    This. JD Drew had a career OPS+ of 125. Only 3 Twins exceeded that this season. If more guys had hit like JD, this team would have done much better. the problem with Ed Julien this season was he hit .199 and slugged .323, not that he wasn't animated enough. When he swung the bat, he didn't make enough contact, and when he made contact it wasn't solid enough. People love the scrappy little energizers when things are going well for them and they're getting on base, swiping bags, beating out swinging bunts and slow rollers, etc. And they're just as awful as anyone else when they're not hitting. Scrappiness didn't make Nick Punto a good player in 2007, when he got 150 games in and had an OPS+ of 53. Having a lineup that's got a more varied and balanced approach might help a team avoid lengthy slumps...but then again it might not. Because at the end of the day it's about whether or not the players can hit. And having someone "scrappy" hitting in front of them won't make them any better than having a guy work a walk in front of them.
  15. jmlease1
    Trading Ryan or Ober would be the highest risk of all high risk propositions for this franchise. They would almost certainly bring the highest return of anyone not named Walker Jenkins, but would also blow a hole in the rotation that we might not be able to cover. You'd have to absolutely hit on the trade AND be sure that someone like Festa or Matthews is ready to replace their production from the jump next season, otherwise, this team isn't contending for anything. (Which the Pohlads may not care that much about, but tossing the team into a rebuild spiral with plummeting attendance WILL drive down the price of the franchise by limiting the suitors. For every gazillionaire excited about being able to build their own thing there's 2 who would be saying "wait, we're going to suck for 3 years unless I take big losses out the gate? Hard pass.") I don't think the salary saving this season makes it worth it and there's too much risk in selling on these starters without more confidence in the next wave. I like Festa, Matthews, Lewis, Morris, Raya, etc but I'll know a lot more where they're at after 2025. I'd say we're one season too early to consider moving them. especially because of the surrender optics.
  16. jmlease1
    well, he's from outside the organization, but since he was previously with the Twins I'm sure some people will be furious about this decision.
  17. jmlease1
    The Pohlads are cheap. They've invested in some areas of the farm system, but where exactly have they done more than the average in terms of spending resources on their farm system? Buying into the Saints to bring them into the farm system doesn't really count. Falvey has done a great job in terms of modernizing the farm system. but a lot of that is from setting a new directive for the system and hiring the right people...not necessarily because they're spending additional money.
  18. jmlease1
    Goldschmidt is a Hall of Famer, but it usually ends with a whimper even for the greats. And right now, it looks like age is catching up to Goldy and the 2022 MVP season sure seems like it's the "one last great year" rather than a sign he's going to keep hitting until he's 40. The power is slipping: the last 2 seasons have been 2 of the 3 worst ISO in his career, and all of his 3 worst have been in the last 5. And we're not talking just a little slippage, this is a huge drop off from where he's been, down much closer to MLB average. he's also substantially worse as a defender now too. Goldschmidt has been the much better player over his career, but Carlos Santana was much better in 2024, even with a horrific start. But the bigger issue is a Hall of Fame caliber player like Goldschmidt isn't going to take a massive pay cut to come to a new team that isn't necessarily a title contender. Much more likely that StL signs him to a 2-year deal for $25-30M, or AZ comes a-calling if they can't work out terms with Christian Walker to bring him back to the desert, etc. It'll take $10M+ for sure to sign Goldschmidt, and very possibly 2 years on the deal. twins don't have the money form their self-imposed payroll limitations and Falvey seems pretty adverse (correctly, IMHO) to multi-year deals for aging veterans. I'd say Pass, except I doubt it'll ever really be an option, unless things go very sideways with StL and he's sitting without a team in late Feb. but even then, I doubt we have the money available. I suppose it's possible that he becomes one of the test cases for the new economics of baseball without the sweet sweet RSN money. Aging veterans are definitely the most likely to find their markets drying up first. But it still seems like a fools errand to try and dance with Goldy.
  19. jmlease1
    I'm still a fan of Rosario, and he could be a solid RH bat if he can keep the Ks manageable. Think it was smart to get him back in the AFL to get some ABs considering he missed 2 months in the heart of the season, and the competition level in the AFL is good enough for him to work on some things. He's certainly got the power, and seems like a solid, if unspectacular corner OF. Ben Ross needs to impress here; he's useful defensively, but has very much struggled with the bat in AA. I think the Twins are looking for him to show them something, or his career is going to be hitting the ceiling. Good start in the AFL for him, needs to keep it up.
  20. jmlease1
    I think it's Soto. He's got great stuff, a projectable frame, and he's already shown flashes. He's also young enough for prospect hounds to project all of their hopes and dreams upon, along with being picked high enough to add some pedigree sheen to his profile. Prielipp is incredibly talented, but the injury history is a huge red flag for these kinds of lists, specially combined with his age and the fact that he's likely up in AA. He's already 23 with only 30 professional innings. Most of the people doing lists like this prioritize projection and at 24 in AA they're already writing him off into the bullpen, and they don't put very many bullpen arms into a Top 100 prospect list. Culpepper is the next best bet, IMHO. He did great at Ft. Myers out the gate and still competed at Cedar Rapids. Jumping all the way up to high A in your draft year is impressive, even from a college player.
  21. jmlease1
    Peter Angelos wasn't marketing the Orioles before his death; Peter Angelos hadn't been active with the team in years and his diminished health kept him from any kind of decision-making or real role in selling the team. The man was 94 with advanced dementia. The Pohlads certainly have some real similarities to the Angelos family in that there's a number of them that don't care about baseball and are perfectly happy to exit from this business. It will be interesting to see who is actually driving the sale; I'm quite confident it won't be Joe Pohlad. Frankly, it's much more likely that Bob Pohlad will be steering things quietly from behind the scenes. He's always been Carl's truest heir to the family businesses; Jim was the official owner of the Twins because he liked baseball the most.
  22. jmlease1
    I think this is fair. It's a little depressing to keep seeing "did great, but missed half the season" in various permutations for Correa, Buxton, Ryan, Wallner...
  23. jmlease1
    This is the thing: yes, you could have made even more money investing the $44M in something else. But the risk levels are going to be much higher and the variation much greater. Pro sports franchises have appreciated massively for decades. At any time, you could cash out and make staggering profits, and without needing to sell off the business for parts. there's really no other industry like it, and again: the low-risk levels are exactly why you're seeing investment firms, hedge funds, etc buying equity stakes in pro sports and/or providing financial backing for people who want in on this. there will be plenty of suitors for the twins. Whether they'll meet the Pohlad family's demands are another matter. Pohlads might be asking for $2B on a franchise that's worth $1.5B. they might have stacked any of the operating losses as team debt (while having extracted the profitable years as dividends to the family) and expect the new owners to eat that. there's all kinds of ways it could go sideways...but there will be all kinds of bidders. i just hope we get some that will have the cash assets where they won't need to turn around operating profits on the Twins in the millions to support something else straight out the gate. I want them to have the funds to invest in their new asset , not immediately seek to extract from it. That's what I'm watching for.
  24. jmlease1
    Despite the twins TV contract issues, not hitting their attendance targets, missing the playoffs, etc the team increased in value by $73M in a year according to Forbes. That's in a BAD year where the economics of baseball outside the largest markets has gotten wobblier. (And I expect that because of ownership's maneuvers they probably still made their annual profit, not that anyone will ever know for sure; hell will freeze over before a Pohlad or any other non-Atlanta ownership will open their books! But YMMV) Pro sports might not be a great year over year profit center in every market, but it is an incredible place to park large sums of cash. That $44M investment the Pohlads made 40 years ago would be worth $255M at an annual rate of 12% (historically, achievable in the stock market over time). That's actually a fine return that most of us would be happy with for our 401(k). If the Pohlad's get $1.5B, then they're talking about what, 84% interest per annum? Who cares about having a few years with an operating loss if the value is increasing at that kind of rate? (No, it wasn't linear, and yes you have to actually sell at some point to realize it...but it's still there) This is why hedge funds are interested in becoming stakeholders in franchises. Historically, it's a spectacular place to hold money.
  25. jmlease1
    Sure, but MLB wants a market like that to either be a) sitting vacant as potential blackmail for stadium deals, or b) an expansion target which generates a huge windfall for all the current owners. (look at what is happening with the NBA: they're creating 2 new franchises and it's going to mean a check cut to each owner for $300M that they don't have to share with the players. And it's the real reason Lore & A-Rod were finally able to get the financial backing they needed to complete the sale, since they didn't actually have the cash themselves, and why they need the sale to happen before expansion is approved). MLB doesn't want a team moving out of a substantial market like this. they were fine with it happening (finally) in Oakland because they still have a team in the Bay and they couldn't get the stadium deal done...and they'd much rather do expansion in Nashville or Charlotte than Vegas.
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