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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Feels like unless the Twins collapse out the gate after the all-star break the only way a trade happens is if they can work a 3-way deal involving one of their top relievers. The teams looking to add a closer/elite set-up man aren't likely going to have a quality MLB bat available to move in the deal and if they're making a playoff push will want to deal in prospects. So maybe there's a 3-way deal that can be made where a team that's heading for the beach already gives up the bat in exchange for the playoff-bound team's prospects. But that's awfully complex and can fall apart quickly. But it's the sort of move that might be worth looking hard at if the Twins are above .500 at the deadline, and I'd certainly be able to support it. Team has ABs available at DH, 1B, or OF for a guy who can hit, especially if they really punish LHP. I suspect little will happen. Pohlads won't authorize more spending, Twins won't be looking to move a prime reliever for prospects, and I don't think the team will fall on its face out the gate hard enough where a fire sale is even that logical (except for the people who gave up on the team months ago, want to blow everything up, and have all the front office & coaching staff fired in favor of the Ghost of Tommy Lasorda or something)
  2. jmlease1
    Since we now know the Ishbia play was at least as much if not more about making a play for CWS, the more public aspects make more sense. I'm not that surprised there isn't a lot of detail out there; most billionaires don't like losing, so they're not going to want their names out there unless they have the deal locked up or close to it. And this way, 10 years from now one of them can leak to a friendly reporter that they were in the running to buy the team and would have done so much better than whatever other billionaire they want to take a shot at...
  3. jmlease1
    I wouldn't trust Rob Manfred as far as I could throw him (and I have a bad back, so I ain't getting far). MLB commissioners have generally been sleazebags who don't give two sh!ts for the fans, and Manfred is a shady tool of the owners as much as any commissioner has been since...Ueberroth, maybe? (that guy was a piece of work to be sure) That said, I hope he's not lying through his misbegotten teeth for once and a Twins sale is moving forward. While I don't share the contempt for the current front office & manager that many around here have, I do think the ownership situation has only harmed the team in the last couple of seasons, and their track record of poor business (outside of getting Target Field built largely on someone else's dime) decisions and inability to grow the fanbase over the past 20 years makes me ready to take on whatever risk we might find in new ownership. I don't see the fanbase growing under this ownership, or real financial gains for the club that would foster more investment in the on-field product (outside of jacking up ticket prices, maybe). I don't see any opportunity for bold moves occurring while ownership is seeking an exit. I don't see anything happening that wouldn't involve the Pohlad family improving their bottom line. Do I expect we'll sudden be in the land of milk & honey with new owners, with a big bump to the payroll, and everything suddenly working out right? Nah. But things under the Pohalds have ground to a halt, and after nearly 50 seasons I'm ready to roll the dice on someone new. Worked out ok with the Vikings, been ok for the Wild, so who knows. New owners should know exactly what they're getting into with the decline of the RSNs too. But this is a big market with the potential for a huge reach. Maybe the new owners could actually tap that, instead of consistently fumbling.
  4. jmlease1
    I think your final sentence is a little too broad. It may not be a position the organization prioritizes in the draft, but if it was one they didn't prioritize at all they never would have signed Vazquez. Developing MLB-quality catchers seems to be the hardest thing to do these days; finding one who can both be quality defensively and hit their weight ain't easy. Would the Twins be better off if they put a lot more draft capital into catching? Maybe, or maybe they just be looking at a lot more busts and people ripping them for wasting draft capital... I think they recognize it's a position of organizational need (it's why they took a flier on Cartaya, for example) but there's very little indication that they draft for need, and considering the development time it takes for most prospects (and the risk associated), I tend to agree. Even though I'd like to see more catching options coming up through the system (he said, hypocritcally).
  5. jmlease1
    A good weekend (even a great weekend) isn't enough to get me too excited about Ferrer yet. He's doing ok, but one big weekend isn't enough to make any kind of call on whether his prospect status has changed or anything. Raya's recent work is a little more notable. We're not talking about 1-2 good starts, we're looking at 4 straight, which may be an indicator that he's figured something out. I'll be interested to see where he sits in another month, but it's encouraging to see him going in the right direction. He's pitching in a league with a lot of offense, so these strong results are nice to see. I suspect that if he'd had this string of success in hand a few weeks ago he might have gotten tapped for the Adams role. With Zebby doing rehab starts, I suspect we won't see Raya up soon, but when Adams goes back down Raya might be positioned well to take the slot if needed again before Pablo gets back. DeBarge is interesting. The steal are impressive, but the reality is it's not that hard to run in A-ball: the pitchers aren't that focused on/skilled at holding runners on, and the catching is often a little all over the place too. That say, the volume is impressive and shows a tool in his bag. But his overall hitting has fallen off after a hot start, with a not so great June and a bad July. His speed and positional flexibility make him interesting, but he's got to be more consistent at the plate and be more of a threat at the plate or it won't matter if he's got a good eye at the plate because more advanced pitchers will overwhelm him and not be concerned enough about his ability to do damage on a "get over" pitch that those easy walks he gets from A-ball pitchers that can't find the zone dry up. One note that I'm very curious about, and it might just be a statistic fluke, but he's been great at home and trash on the road (.953 OPS vs .558). Maybe he's struggling a little to adjust to the travel schedule? Can't sleep on the road?
  6. jmlease1
    I think it's a little early to write off Festa, Matthews, and Morris as being "solid AAA" arms. Yes, top teams need high-end starters, but those are also hard to find. That said, there are more paths to getting one than just drafting the guys with the best stuff at the time of the draft and hoping.
  7. jmlease1
    This is the part of the draft where expecting to really know much about the players true prospects is beyond me. I'll be interested to see where these guys are in a year or so and see if anyone has broken out. I expect someone will, but I really don't have any idea who that will be right now? Interesting to grab a 6'11" pitcher. Twins do have some experience in working with tall guys, but this is a real outlier. Sure will be fun if her figures it our though!
  8. jmlease1
    Buck did great, and more importantly got to make an important and positive memory with his kids. Man, those moonshots he was launching in round 1 were fun.
  9. jmlease1
    I think that's right: some of these folks are much more likely to get moved up to AAA if the Twins trade away some position players at the deadline and open up MLB slots for guys like Martin, Julien, etc. I think the Twins want guys like GG and Culpepper playing every day and will be less concerned whether they do it in AA or AAA, but just want them getting consistent ABs and time in the field. Fedko's case is a little more interesting, as he's 26 and hasn't really been on the prospect radar. I'd say he's more likely to get a move to test how he does at a higher level. Interesting how the breakout prospects this season have been mostly on the position side. Thrilled to see Zebby looking good. The sooner we can get him back to take the Adams slot, the better.
  10. jmlease1
    I think one of the things we're seeing in this draft is that the Twins aren't all that dogmatic in their player profiling for what they "want" in a draft pick. To me, I look at this draft and see a team looking to get the most value they can with wherever they're picking. Lot of variety in this group to me, but all are reasonable/interesting picks for where they went. I don't think the Twins show a lot of interest in drafting for need, as a rule. Which is probably going to frustrate those who are worrying about the dearth of catching prospects in the system (I have concerns myself) or 1B depth. But considering how much of a crapshoot player development still is...I'm not too hung up on it.
  11. jmlease1
    I'm down with this pick just for the Lew Ford connection. :P
  12. jmlease1
    "don't blame this kid for Delmon Young. don't blame this kid for Delmon Young..." That's going to be my mantra on this one. he's not his uncle. Hopefully he's not genetically predisposed to being an awful defensive player. Dmitri was a fine hitter. Delmon never lived up to expectations, but had some quality seasons at the plate. Both were awful in the field.
  13. jmlease1
    Prielipp is the only one out of that group that had a major arm surgery before the Twins drafted him. (Paddack was acquired via trade, as was Mahle, but Mahle hadn't had a major surgery) Canterino was perfectly healthy when they drafted him but is just looked like Rice University ruined him. I doubt the Twins are a significant outlier on drafting players that have had a TJ; it's an unfortunate reality that it's no longer a rare procedure. In this case, it's someone who is already well past his TJ and has been back pitching, and having TJ is not the kiss of death against a fine career. Seems like a value pick here. I suspect he would not have been there if he were further removed from surgery. If finding consistency with his slider is his biggest issue right now, that does sort of fit into the Twins teaching repertoire, doesn't it? Hard not to be intrigues with his stuff, and depending on how his offseason goes, he could be someone that rises quite quickly in the system.
  14. jmlease1
    Considering power is one of the easier things to add to a player's hitting profile and bat to ball skills are one of the harder ones, I see the logic in making this pick, especially since Houston is seen as someone who will be a quality SS when most of the time the evaluators are predicting every college SS that's drafted will "have to move off the position". Seeing how much the Twins have struggled to find a consistent SS over the past 30 years and have rarely developed one internally that can stick for more than a couple of seasons, I'm not going to complain about having a top glove in the system with some hitting skills. We'll see if he turns out to be more than Noah Miller (who is a fine glove and can't hit) in a couple of seasons; if he can develop some doubles pop then he'll become more exciting. Floor is high, ceiling is questionable? His development will be interesting. Overall, I have faith in the Twins draft process, so I'm not going to bag on Houston. Let's see what he's got.
  15. jmlease1
    Yes, because getting injured is a mark of character. I'm sure if he just cared more he wouldn't get hurt. 🙄 #sarcasm
  16. jmlease1
    He's doing great this season, but Sabato has a lot more failure on his resume than success, so the Twins are unlikely to jump him to MLB, add him to the 40-man, and drop him into a playoff race based on a small sample in AA & AAA. his walks have slipped a little and he's not hitting RHP particularly well (he is annihilating LHP, which which will be intriguing). Julien is much more likely to get a recall since he's already on the 40-man. There's also the basic reality that this Twins regime simply does not let go of depth for nothing, and they definitely do not flip on a veteran after a bad month. France has enough track record in MLB that if the Twins cut him, he'll be gone from the organization and they simply are uninterested in losing assets like that when a vet has a bad run. It's also why some of us are unhappy any time they sign a marginal veteran in the offseason, because we know the leash will be very very long.
  17. jmlease1
    Fun game today. Buxton was awesome, and I love seeing it. He's one of the most exciting baseball player's I've watched and I'm so glad he's having a healthy season and kicking butt. Interesting pitching performance today; Sands was quite good as the opener and seems to be finding his groove again. He'd been a little inconsistent this season and they'd kind of banished him from the higher leverage roles, but it looks like he's getting himself back on track. Adams...looks like a long man. He did better than his first outing, but against a much weaker lineup. But he did what we needed today, which was get 3-4 solid innings, and he put up 4 without giving up too much. And we finished it off without needed any of the higher leverage arms. I'll take that when the offense steps up big. And the offense got it done for sure. Nice to see the ball flying out of the yard and some crooked numbers going up in the box score. Won the series, let's go get a sweep! To quote the immortal Eppy Calvin "Nuke" Laloush: "I looooove winning, man! You know? Like, it beats losing?!?"
  18. jmlease1
    Yes, Cal was a freak of nature. I'm sorry, but this is seriously weird. Gehrig & Ripken's streaks are both massive outliers in MLB history. 3rd place is Everett Scott (ever heard of him? I presume not) which ended in 1925 at 1307. When only 2 guys in history have ever cleared 2000 consecutive games and both are more than 50% higher than 3rd place, I think it's safe to say that neither record has anything to do with "MLB having changed". While one of the best abilities is still availability (tm Tony Kornheiser) you're missing a lot if you only judge durability based on consecutive games played. And comping anyone's durability to Ripken's is kind of meaningless. It's like ripping a guy who hits 30 hrs for not hitting 70.
  19. jmlease1
    Can we just swap Kiersey for Martin, please? Martin's looking all the way back from his injury and while I don't expect him to set the world on fire at the plate, he's almost certainly going to be a better option than Kiersey, and gives the team even more positional flexibility, while still providing speed off the bench. Stop waiting for Keaschall.
  20. jmlease1
    I think the NBA and NFL have warped people's ideas about what you should do with a season. It's much easier to do a quick turnaround in either sport than is likely/possible in baseball, which should disincentivize tanking. Beyond that, baseball margins are close enough (and anything can happen in a short series) that any time you have a chance to get in the playoffs, you should take it. Looking at the bust rate of prospects even in very smart and talented front offices and the challenges in surround great talent with enough support (when you're not one of the super high payroll teams, at least) only reinforces the idea that you should try and compete if you can make the damn playoffs. All of this is to say, I'm enjoying seeing the team win. I hope they keep it up, no matter who the opposition is, and would much rather have the team keep winning and push for a playoff berth than quit on the season and have a fire sale. Skenes is pretty awesome. Beating him was great. Larnach is a real threat against RHP. Hope Correa is ok. Sounds like it isn't too serious, but it makes you nervous.
  21. jmlease1
    Duran is the right kind of guy to move if you can get a team to make an overpay because of the inflated value teams place on the title of "closer". He's awesome, and I don't want him to leave, but he's starting to get more expensive (you have to figure he's looking at an arbitration figure of at least $8M next season, so even a multi-year, team-friendly-ish deal would be looking at at 2/$20M or 3/$35M). And we do have options in-house to fill that role (Jax, Varland, or Stewart could all get there, and Sands is someone that might be an option too. Most likely Jax or Varland, though). Are we in the position of selling? I don't really know. (I'm less eager than some to simply throw the season away, because baseball is still the "a chip, a chair, and a chance" sport) Are the Jays the right team to deal with? I really don't know. I'd be more interested in exploring some of this if the team had already been sold, or I was certain they'd be sold by the time the off-season starts. I simply don't want the Pohlads having any decision-making power right now, even if they generally leave the baseball moves to the front office.
  22. jmlease1
    Unless the team was unwilling to give the kind of contract he signed with Toronto and he was clear that was the only possible way he would ever consider re-signing with the team. We don't know and we'll probably never know, but it seems likely that was a real factor. The Berrios deal shows the risk of dealing a proven starting pitcher for prospects in that you very well might not get the same value back. But at the same time, Berrios has underwhelmed in Toronto. He was awful in his first full season (2022) and until the first half of this season has looked more like a solid 3rd or 4th starter than someone who you were excited to start a playoff game. In fact, SWR hasn't been that far below Berrios' production the last 1 1/2 seasons. Since Berrios left MN, Bailey Ober has been a better pitcher than Berrios, even when you include the rotten 2025 Ober is having. While I think the Twins would have liked to have seen more from Austin Martin (though he's looking like he may have figured some things out), I'm not sure they have much regret in dealing Berrios, considering what SWR has done, what Martin might still do, and the money they were then able to then spend on Pablo. I think they would have significantly more regret in trading Ryan, who is having a better season this year than Berrios has ever had in his entire career.
  23. jmlease1
    Yeah...no. I get that we're short on starters right now because Lopez, Matthews, Ober, and Morris are injured. It really sucks that once again our injury problems have hit on the same position at the same time (a few years ago it was the OF), but that's not a reason to make a desperation/panic move that would have little chance of success and a large chance of failure. Yes, Jax is a different and better pitch now than when he flunked out as a starter...but it doesn't mean that he's well-equipped now to transition back to the role and succeed. Unless you think he can still go max effort while trying to pitch 5-6 innings (let's be kind and call this overly optimistic) then he's almost certainly going to lose some velocity on his fastball, and that gain he's made has been important to his success in the bullpen. Maybe he can do better because his other offerings are better now, but it's a big maybe. And the fact that he'd have to go down to AAA to get stretched out only makes it more likely we'd lose more games while trying to fill the starting pitching hole...which would be close to getting filled again by the time Jax is ready to start again. Basically, this scheme seems like one designed to help tank this season, make the team sellers, and basically give up. (which the most likely result is a windfall for the hopefully outgoing ownership group as they dump payroll; it's highly unlikely that it will result in increased prospects for 2026) I suppose it'll also guarantee the front office gets fired and a housecleaning occurs under the new ownership, which certainly seems like the primary goal for many around here anyways...
  24. jmlease1
    Blegh. Lifeless offense and a bad outing by Paddack doomed this one pretty early. Don't think i'll be watching the replay when I get off work, though hearing cranky Terry Ryan reading scouting reports would be fun. (I'm assuming Ryan was grouchy and a crank, as I've never seen him be any other way in public.)
  25. jmlease1
    And nice to see Hrbek stop by, even if he didn't get on the mic. The trio seemed genuinely delighted to see him. Only a quick view, but he looked pretty good post-stroke, and I hope he's recovering well.
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