jmlease1

AL East is a really interesting division this season. The NY club is in a bit of trouble with injuries already and their lineup needs guys like Bellinger and Goldschmidt to really step up or their offense is asking a lot of Judge. feels like a race between Balto & Boston to me, but the people writing off TB seem to be ignoring history. I think the AL Central is going to be a fun race; no team is perfect, but there are 4 teams that are all pretty good. My gut says Detroit played over their heads last season, and while they have a heck of an ace, the rest of their team doesn't scare me. Cleveland always seems to find pitching, but their insanely good bullpen last season masked a mediocre starting crew and I'm not sure they'll get that much bullpen production and health 2 years in a row. I think it might be Twins & KC battling it out? KC still feels one bat light, twins have a lot of uncertainty about health, but both have strong rotations.

Not wrong: Ober had 3 really bad blowups last season and two were against KC (he did dominate them in his 3rd pass, though so maybe he figured something out, stopped tipping pitches, something). If you dropped Ober's first 2 outings against KC and the implosion against Atlanta it would have dropped a full run off his ERA. (If you trim the best 3 by Game Score off as well, he still would have been looking at an ERA of 3.38, which is pretty nice. Interesting to see the impact of the best and worst outings on a starters season, though) I'm still a Joe Ryan guy (don't that I don't also like Lopez), but with Ober feeling good the Twins have a strong top 3 in their rotation, one that should be able to compete with most anyone.

Interesting player. I suspect the missing 2020 minor league season screwed up his developmental track, especially as the Twins tried to determine whether or not he could stick at catcher (and catchers usually need more time anyways). he seems to have good control of the strike zone, solid (if not always consistent) pop in the bat, and had a fine season in 2024 against more advanced competition. Does he have a defensive position? Doesn't really have the size you'd like to see at 1B, so corner OF might be the best option. If he can keep hitting, he should get a shot. As a RH bat he might find some opportunity if he keeps making good, hard, consistent contact.

well, since Pitcher Wins isn't all that informative of a stat, I'm not too worried about it. Last season no Cleveland starter had more than 13 "wins" and only 2 reached double-digits. I think what will be the most interesting thing to monitor with Paddack is whether or not his velocity stays fairly even from start to start, and how he responds after going 6 innings in his next outing. Despite it being a disappointing season in 2024, Paddack still had outings with a Game Score of 75. 73, 74, and 67: those are really nice games! Joe Ryan's best 4 last season? 68, 75, 74, 71. Ryan was much better last season because he had fewer clunkers and many more games with a GS in the 60's rather than the 40's or 50's, but you did see why the Twins have been clinging to Paddack's potential. If he's more consistent this season, and healthier, he could be a real asset in the back end of the rotation.

If he's healthy, Paddack is a capable 4th or 5th starter, which is the role he's expected to play for the twins. If he struggles or gets injured (again), we have festa, matthews, morris, raya and more waiting in the wings looking for an opportunity. If paddack is ok and healthy but one of the others is absolutely crushing it in AAA, there's no reason paddack couldn't get moved at the deadline or shifted into a bullpen role. I like the fact that we have realistic options for rotation depth that go more than 1-2 deep.

It would be interesting to know if this is Twins debt or debt added from other Pohlad business ventures? But regardless, it goes to the relatively poor overall business management of the Twins over the past decade or longer. As a business operation, they've done a poor job in growing their own revenue streams, were caught out on the dissolution of the RSNs, failed to develop their own network, botched radio ownership, haven't seemingly done much to expand sponsorships...what exactly have they done well at from a business perspective other than get the state & county to build them a gem of a stadium? Disappointing that the market is stagnating on a sale. I'm exhausted by current ownership. They're not the worst, but they're nowhere near the best, and I can't recall the last time ownership brought good news to the table for the franchise, at least as far as fans are concerned. Outside of Nephew Joe, the family aren't particularly interested in baseball, so them moving on to count their gazillions sounds great. Ain't no way the next ownership group is going to agree to keep Nephew Joe on in any capacity unless he's able to put up a real stake as a minority owner, and even then it seems beyond the pale. "Buy the team, but let the old ownership keep running it!" That's dumber than Glen Taylor's multi-year phased sale. A billionaire is almost certainly going to be the lead partner in any sale, and there's no way they want to hang on to Joe Pohlad as part of the deal. Hells bells that kind of stupid may have sent Justin Ishbia running back to the CWS...

pretty much for the past 30 years. several years of Rivas (who was bad), several years of Casilla (who was a good utility guy miscast as a starter), but only Dozier has put up good results over several seasons since Knoblauch and locked the position down. but this isn't unusual, and until Correa came in we had as much if not more trouble filling SS on a consistent basis. It would be great if someone could seize the job and not let go. Julien took a hold of it and let it slip through his fingers. Lee hasn't been healthy enough to claim it as his own...yet. Maybe Keaschall will make it impossible to keep him out as he's able to to throw and field again...maybe. but it would be great to pencil in the same guy for the next 4-5 years.

Worked out ok with Dozier. (who should have been a multiple all-star player, but had the misfortune to be playing in the same league as Cano and Altuve in their primes) Drafted as a SS, didn't become a primary 2B until he was in MLB. It'd be great if we could lock someone into the job for 5-7 years again a la Knoblauch/Dozier, but not easy to find those guys.

I read the first part, but it wasn't relevant to my comment which was about his offense. He wasn't a disappointment offensively in spring training, which you were using to pile on to his less than great defense. He's not a great defender. This is not news. Defense is important, but it's not more important than offense. The Twins have strong defenders up the middle at SS, C, and CF; while it would be preferable to have a strong defender at 2B as well (and I think Lee would be), I don't think this lineup can afford to have a bad hitter at 2B right now.

It's simply bad luck though that all of our injuries have hit essentially similar spots on the roster for position players, though. If Bader had the same injury that lee does, we'd just be all "Kiersey, here's your shot". And predicting that Gasper would get spiked? If you knew that was coming, Mickey would like a word with you about why you didn't warn him. Bullpen is still fine: Blewett can take the last spot in the bullpen if no one on the cut line appeals, but unless the rotation (which looks nice and healthy) implodes early the last guy in the bullpen might not have much work in April to begin with. Jax, Duran, Sands, Alcala, Coulombe, Varland, and even Topa still give plenty of innings and quality. Hopefully Lee's stint on the IL is mostly preventative and he's back in the minimum time.

Julien out-hit Castro, Lee, and Martin in spring training. The only 2B contender he didn't out-perform in spring training was Gasper. (not counting Keaschall, since he's still on the recovery train) Spring training stats aren't all that meaningful, but Julien did fine. He did look nervous and indecisive defensively, however.

Honestly, the biggest concern is Lee: is he on the IL to start the season because the twins are being extra cautious and want to make sure he's 100% before running him out there in cold weather, or is there something here that's going to linger like last season? If he's back after a week, then frankly the team is in pretty decent shape overall. I'm not worried all that much about Stewart (it's not an arm issue for once), and Tonkin is fungible. Blewett for Tonkin won't miss a beat, and I'm actually excited to see Varland get some run in the bullpen. Despite a few injuries, the bullpen looks fine so long as Duran's lower velocity doesn't tank his effectiveness. I always looked at it as if anything we got from Stewart as a bonus, not a guy we needed to be counting on to be successful. Duran, Jax, Sands, Alcala, Coulombe, Varland, Blewett, and Topa is still a good bullpen with the potential to be great. Shame about Gasper, who was having a fine spring and was looking like he might be a useful bench bat and infielder. getting spiked sucks, and hopefully his recovery will be quick. I'd probably give the last spot to Kiersey, who has had a solid spring and would free up Castro to stay in the infield, while giving the team some additional bench speed, but I'd be ok with Martin as well who has done fine in spring training as well and can handle 2B fine in a pinch. no need to panic...yet!

Because he had just enough success early on as a starter to make it possible to foresee a scenario where that worked out for him. And if he could have made it as a starter, that has more value for the team, especially when this journey started. It's a lot easier to push Varland to the 'pen when you have Festa, Matthews, Morris, Raya, and Lewis at AAA, coming off a season when SWR was effective in MLB for most of the seasons, and Paddack looks healthy. Starting pitching depth was in a different place entering 2023 or even 2024.

sure, if everyone gets hurt the season won't go well. That's almost every season. but right now, this is not a 4th place team. They should be contending for the division. It feels like the late season collapse has made a segment of people quit on this roster, these players, the manager, the front office, and frankly the whole franchise. Again, I'm as tired of this ownership as anyone...but I'm still excited to watch Twins baseball this year.

Yep. but a lot of weird things all had to happen to make that true. Want to bet on it happening that way again? It might not be inconceivable to finish that way again, but looking at their competition in the AL Central predicting them as a 4th place team is a) flying in the face of objectivity, and 2) the kind of doomcasting about the team that the people on this site are supposed to like that I'm not interested in being part of. Why give up in spring freakin' training? I'm as sick of the ownership as anyone, but I'm not going to blame the players for it. Also? players aren't really dropping like flies. There's 1 significant injury (Lewis) so far, a couple of minor ones (Topa, Tonkin) to back end of the roster players, and a "we don't actually know anything" with Brooks Lee. The rotation? healthy. The top bullpen guys? healthy. The outfield? healthy. Catchers? healthy. Infield has some injuries, but is also the deepest part of the team.

I will happily take the money of the people who think this is a 4th place team.

I hope that he does become a cult hero, because that means he'll have had at least one season where he did some awesome and memorable things. Astudillo became a cult hero not just because of the flowing hair and fun factor of his appearances, but because he knocked the snot out of the ball in his initial foray with the Twins. It turned out to be small sample size mania and once he was exposed as a guy who would swing at anything he couldn't sustain it, but what fun we all had that september. Gasper is a fascinating case of how a player's development can go sideways without the player ever really performing poorly. gasper looks like he's had some injuries along the way, and the missing COVID minor league year followed by an injury season seemed get him lost as a prospect. He hit quite well in 2022, but now he's 26 and no longer looking like a catching prospect. Yankees only gave him 20 games at AAA in 2023 before burying him back in AA for...reasons? Boston picks him up but starts him back in AA AGAIN? Gasper hit AA pitching just fine in parts of 4 different seasons, so why waste half the year with him in AA at age 28? Good luck to him hope he gets a legit chance and is able to do something with it. Wouldn't mind at all having a switch-hitting bench bat who can cover a couple of positions, DH, and be an emergency catcher. He seems to know the strike zone well and that's a good skill.

Really the only big issue is at SS, where Castro is the only other option if Correa needs a day off or gets hurt; Miranda can play 3B, Julien can play 2B, and Gasper seems to be able to handle 1B & 2B acceptably (with France at 1B) and Castro can play 3B & 2B just fine. But Castro isn't the best option at SS and we don't really have another good choice there. I'm not too worried about the depth short-term. the much bigger concern is if Lee's back becomes a chronic problem or one that leads to extended unavailability, but more because he's such a talented player that we want in the lineup. I think healthy his bat will play and he's going to be a plus defender at 2B or 3B and solid backup at SS. Hopefully this is just minor tightness that can get worked out with a little therapy and he's really just out for precautionary reasons.

One of the things that's interesting about Cleveland is how good their health was last season. they weren't running tons of guys through their lineup, their entire infield played at least 140 games, they had 7 bullpen guys appear in 50+ games, and while their rotation suffered without Bieber they still weren't spreading a gazillion starts around. Maintaining that level of health will likely be pretty key for them? As good as Gimenez was defensively, he wasn't impressive on the other side, and frankly the Cleveland lineup still looks thin. They really need Santana to not be cooked, because they simply don't have a lot of guys who can hit. They're going to need Noel to not have any kind of sophomore slump, too, or they might be looking at putting out uninspiring bats at C, 1B (if Santana falls off again), 2B, SS, CF, and RF...get past Ramirez (an absolute beast and legit MVP candidate) and Kwan (a quality player in his prime) and what's left? They're asking 2 guys to carry a lot of offense, rely on excellent defense (which to be fair, isn't subject to slumps the same way), and their pitching. They were really good in 1-run games and extra-innings last season, which can be pretty fungible. That said, having a great bullpen makes it less about luck and more about skill. Be interesting to see if they have 4-5 dominant guys rolling out 50+ games again this season. History says no, but Cleveland has patched it together before.

There's a lot of good in the Twins bullpen. I am concerned about Duran's loss of velocity, but it may well be that he's able to manage it just fine without needing to hit 102-104 consistently on the gun with the fastball. Especially since he has the excellent curve and "splinker" to rely on. (the curve has been his best pitch for the past 2 years anyways) but it's fair to be worried. Him being the primary 9th inning guy may actually help the Twins in this regard, putting him in some easier situations at times. Jax is a monster. Sands did very well last season; it will be interesting to see whether he drops back and becomes one of those fungible relievers when you don't really know when his next good season will be, but even an average one makes him a fair option in the 6th-7th inning. Stewart's health is a huge issue, but his arm seems healthy and his stuff is filthy. That gives you 4 guys who at least from the start of the season you should feel confident in for the last couple of innings. That's a really good base. Coulombe is another guy whose health needs to be monitored, but he's been very effective the past 3 seasons and gives you a LHP who can shut down LH hitters without giving it all back to the RH pinch hitter. He's got flexibility of use. Alcala is a guy I like more than most it seems; he's not consistent enough to be a real weapon, but he's also not filler. Right now he's maybe 6th in the pecking order, which is pretty great, IMHO. I feel pretty good having a guy like him being up in the 6th-7th innings, and his stock could rise again if he finds consistency again. he had a couple of bad blowups late, but he was really good last season outside of the August Implosion. I'm excited to have Varland transition to the bullpen full time. I think he can be really good there, and has the stuff to be a back-end guy, not a middle relief/long man. If he's able to stay refined with his fastball/cutter combo at max effort, he'll be a weapon...and he's going to start the season as likely the 7th man. I'm fine with them giving the last slot to Castellano; he's got the stuff to hang and the last man in the bullpen isn't going to pitch very much anyways. I'd prefer the Twins make a deal on him so they can send him down as needed, but especially while we're waiting for Topa/Tonkin to get healthy. I assumed going in to the season that the Twins would have 1-3 injuries i the bullpen either coming out of spring training or very early in the year, and that's tracking. The good thing is, none of them look too serious, and none of them are impacting our top relievers. Right now, our depth looks capable of managing through this. things do start getting a little thinner if we have to go much beyond this; Blewett is Just Another Guy, Ynoa is still coming back from a major injury really, etc. Prielipp is an exciting arm, but hasn't thrown an inning above A-ball yet and only 30 innings as a pro. That said...he seems to be healthy, finally and the stuff is incredible. Hopefully he's starting at AA; more A-ball seems like a waste. It's a good bullpen with the ability to be great. Considering how deep the rotation is, this could be one of the better twins pitching staffs in a long time. here's hoping they get decent health.

One of the things to remember is the last guy in the bullpen can often go quite a while without actually pitching. With 8 guys in the bullpen, frankly there will be stretches where guys aren't getting consistent work. One of the reasons they shuttle guys down after one of those mop-up starts isn't because of real need but more about ensuring they have additional depth; it's not like the new guy comes up and pitches that same day. It's just risk-aversion, but the actual jeopardy is closer to the need for a 3rd catcher on the roster than a true danger. They just sell it better than Gardy used to about his 3rd catcher security blanket. I'd still prefer to make a trade for Castellano to maintain flexibility and not risk getting squeezed, but we can ride with him as last man in the bullpen if Philly wants to keep playing chicken or make outrageous trade demands.

I'd prefer that the Twins make a deal to keep Castellano and give themselves the flexibility to send him down to the minors. But right now with a couple of injuries to guys that I saw as being back end of the bullpen guys, there is a roster spot available, so if Philly thinks they can win the game of chicken before cut down day, I'm pretty confident they're going to lose that staring contest. There other thing the Twins have going for them on this one is there are a couple of off-days built into the schedule early on to help handle a short start, and frankly the way the Twins rotation is shaping up and 8 guys in the bullpen, they can handle 1 low-leverage guy hanging in there, at least early on. Varland looks like he's going to grab a bullpen spot from the jump, and he's also someone more than capable of throwing 2 innings without needing 2-3 days off. Castellano has shown he has the stuff worthy of protecting if you can manage it. Hope the Twins are able to thread the needle to keep him.

Sigh. It's a shame that a player with some much skill, so much talent is always struggling to show it on the field because of injuries. Moderate is better than severe, but it's still significant. Here's hoping he's back by May; we should be thinking weeks rather than months right now. An opportunity has been created for Brooks Lee, Jose Miranda, and Ed Julien (heck, even Mickey Gasper is likely to get a shot while Royce is on the shelf). Who will be the guy to seize it? Hope one of them makes it easy to go slow on Royce's return.

You're right in that there are 1.0 WAR players available every season on the waiver wire or cheaply through free agency, but figuring out who those players are vs the ones who can't get to that level at all isn't easy, because there are a lot of them around too. But in terms of player valuation you shouldn't just take the "1 WAR equals $8M" or whatever it is now and multiply it out to rate value, because scarcity shows that a 4 WAR player is worth more than two 2.0 WAR players. I don't mind the Twins bringing in low-wattage bats every season to supplement the roster; if done correctly they can raise the floor for the team. And simply not giving ABs & innings to bad players is a good and relatively cheap way to raise the floor and win more games. And with the way baseball playoffs go, all you need is a chip a chair and chance to make a run. Where I get nervous is when they ride those veteran bats even when they're not playing well and can't bring themselves to move on and/or give a young player enough of an opportunity to prove themselves. Twins (like most teams, frankly) struggle with the sunk cost fallacy, and after being burned so badly a few seasons ago value depth maybe a little too much now (I would argue there was a bit of overcorrection there). If Ty France cracks the ball hard this year, they'll be proven right on this one. If he goes into a 2 month long slump and they keep running him out every day while letting Miranda/Julien et al sit...then we have a problem.

Larnach isn't bad in LF when he's healthy; last season he was not healthy. He was quite good in limited time in 2022, so he might be able to get back to that if his legs are good. Margot was shockingly bad last season, so there's definitely some addition by subtraction, and for all that Kepler has historically been excellent in RF, that really hasn't been true for the last 2 seasons. So less of a loss there. Bader is certainly a plus, and if the Twins are able to deploy him the way they had hoped to use Michael A. Taylor a couple of years ago, that could really ramp things up: giving Buxton a break, defensive replacement in one of the corners when it's close & late, spelling Larnach/Wallner against LHP...that really could improve the D in the OF quite a bit. It certainly should be an improvement over last season, but a lot depends on health.