Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

jmlease1

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,746

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    32

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Tracker: Picks & Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I still don't have a lot of belief that Sabato can become a real MLB option (and I know there are people rooting for him to fail since he was a Falvey pick), but I admire how he's ground away and continued to fight for a career in pro baseball and earned his way up to AAA. But you never know with baseball. And if some of these guys figure it out late and even become a platoon option for a couple of years...that's a good thing and I'm rooting for them. Trevor Plouffe didn't become a useful MLB player until he was 26 (he was 8 years into his pro career before he finally made the Opening Day roster); he needed 2 attempts with a lot of struggles and a position change before he could stick. He had 2 ok seasons, 2 really good seasons and then he was basically done and kicked around for 3 more seasons in MLB before hanging it up. You need those guys coming up through the system too; it's not just star or bust.
  2. jmlease1
    Impressive that you've already written him off after he's barely played a full professional season. 23 is hardly old, even for AA. It sounds like you prejudged him before he ever took an AB. Was there anything he could have done to be acceptable to you, or are you just so mad that they picked him and not someone else that he can do no right?
  3. jmlease1
    Can I give you the old Tom Tango quiz? Who is the more impactful hitter (assume the same ballparks): Player A: .300/.370/.425 Player B: .250/.370/.425 No one is saying hitting for power means it's ok to not avoid outs. It's just that it's less meaningful how you avoid those outs. Long before the analytics revolution in baseball people were saying in Little League: "A walk's as good as a hit". Bringing it back around to Amick: if he's taking his walks and showing good pop in his bat, it'll fine if he's got a BA in the .250-270 range. But he has to take those walks and show a good understanding of the strike zone and do damage to balls in the zone.
  4. jmlease1
    I was really excited by Ellwanger, so it was a huge bummer to see him get hurt. Do we have real structural damage there or is it a sprain than can reasonably be expected to recover without surgery? I'd hate for him to lose a full development year (or 2 if it ends up being TJ) but I'd much rather know early than august. Quick deserves the pick, and he's having as good a debut as you could possibly hope for. He's pitched so little in college/pros that I'll be curious to see how much they let him go. But the stuff is for real. Culpepper needs to get moved up, if healthy.
  5. jmlease1
    Because hitting for power is important for creating runs. It just is. avoiding out + hitting for power = runs. It's a simple formula, but a proven one. Miguel Sano gets used as a poster child of what we supposedly don't want around here, but what we don't want with a Sano type is one who gets injured a bunch and goes into rapid decline. As a hitter, however, Sano was very impactful in his healthy seasons. Even with all his injuries and a massive and borderline tragic decline, he's got a career OPS+ of 115. Can you really look at his 2015, 2017, and 2019 seasons and say this guy couldn't hit? (yes, the even-numbered seasons count too, but 1 of those was the idiotic "let's put him in RF!" experiment and the other down seasons are more about injury than lack of skill) If Billy Amick is Miguel Sano as a hitter I'd be thrilled! (he's not) Having a lower BA and a lot of K's may not be aesthetically appealing, and you probably don't want your lineup filled entirely with those dudes, but it's also not a death sentence and can in fact improve your roster. Beyond that, part of what keeps a team in good shape and winning is when you have lower level prospects come up and be solid contributors even if it's only for a few seasons. Be a quality starter for a few years, rather than have to spend precious free agent dollars on an aging veteran to fill in at 1B or 3B or DH. Amick might not get there? You'd like to see his contact rates get higher in AA and his power production be higher as well, but there's things to like about him and potential for him to realize.
  6. jmlease1
    He's at .242/.324/.473 as of 5 May, and that's after a bad week. I don't think anyone is rushing to send him up to AAA, but let's see where he is in a month or two. This is really only his second full pro season, so he's on a solid track and to me is showing potential. I think he's properly rated as a fringe top 20 prospect, and if he produces well this season and shows improvement in his approach, then he'll get an opportunity.
  7. jmlease1
    I think the Twins showed their interest in him by sending him to the AFL early and promoting him to AA despite not exactly having a great finish to his season in Cedar Rapids. Right now he's probably a borderline top 20 prospect, but there's potential if his bat stays live. Think they're handling him pretty well right now, splitting time at 3B and 1B. Be great if he can stick at 3B, but there's also a path for him to rise at 1B when the Twins need to find long-term solutions. We'll see where his bat is in another month, but he's off to a pretty good start to his year. Would like to see him make a little more contact, be a little more patient at the plate, but the power production has been good.
  8. jmlease1
    Have you actually watched a Twins game this year? Because this is an entry for the Preposterous Statement of the Year Tournament. The ranking here are correct. It'll be interesting to see if Abel is coming back soon (he's apparently throwing bullpens again) and where he would slide in. Ceiling is as high as anyone, but between prior track record and now an injury, is he ahead of Ober or not? I think he did enough to open the season to say yes, but it's intriguing. I hope better things happen for SWR. It's surprising to see him struggle this much, because it's not like he's some guy who had a fast start and then teams got a book on. He's been here for a while and has been productive. Of course, someone people have hated him from the jump because he was acquired for Berrios...
  9. jmlease1
    I understand that, but you have to make exceptions for certain players, because that's also part of building your fan base. Having those players that are "your guys" matters, especially when they're like Buxton who doesn't want to go anywhere. (I also think that you make a rebuild higher risk and likely longer when you empty out all of your quality veterans at the same time, but YMMV on that one) despite the current injury I would have preferred to be able to extend Ryan rather than look at him as a trade asset, but I understand the other side of it...and with the stripping of the bullpen assets for more starting pitching it's something that's also not as devastating as it would have been in other circumstances. This isn't 10 years ago when we were desperately signing veteran starters in their 30's and hoping they had one more season in them (or could bounce back after an injury, etc) not just to fill out a 5-man rotation, but hoping one of those guys might be a #3. The success of the rotation makes the current struggles of the bullpen quite frustrating...especially because it probably wasn't necessary.
  10. jmlease1
    The fact that Marek Houston made the honorable mentions makes me very happy. So far I've been entirely wrong about him as a hitter, all my concerns look stupid, and I'm thrilled about it. Hope he continues to have an excellent push in Cedar Rapids and forces a call-up to Wichita sooner rather than later.
  11. jmlease1
    If the only way for this team to somehow succeed is for them to always trade away their best players and never let a great player like Buxton be a 1-team player and a Twins legend, then what are we doing? I do not regret keeping Buxton, I'm glad he doesn't want to be traded, and I'm glad he's here to be a reason to watch Twins baseball. Hells bells, we're not even paying him that much. Considering how often prospects bust, we probably wouldn't have gotten enough value to make it worth it. Sucks to lose Ryan. Hope it's not serious. Love watching him pitch.
  12. jmlease1
    Hope the injury to jenkins is minor and he was removed more out of precautionary reasons over something more significant. This injury jinx to our top prospects makes me want someone to go encase Kaelen Culpepper in bubble wrap...
  13. jmlease1
    Duran was converted to relief when he was called up to MLB. He was still starting in the minors; 2021 was the last time he began a season in the minors and he started in 4 of his 5 outings. Couldn't stay healthy. Made the Twins out of spring training in 2022 as a reliever. He literally had 1 minor league appearance in "relief" and it was a piggy-back outing where he threw 4 1/3 and finished the game. That's not a minor league reliever.
  14. jmlease1
    Meh. Not excited about the idea of converting starters to relievers earlier in their careers before they've proven that they can't start. Yes, the bullpen this season is a mess and it's a self-inflicted wound, but it's still harder to find starters and quality ones are more valuable. Beyond that they get injured frequently and you always need reinforcements (as has been proven this season as well). Does anyone really believe that Raya would be thriving as a reliever if they'd made him one back in AA rather than continuing to try him in the rotation until he struggled at AAA? Would we be happier with Matthews or Rojas already in the bullpen, or would we be complaining about the shortage of starters if another guy goes down for a few weeks? The problem is they stripped down the bullpen to almost nothing at the deadline, and then did nothing of substance to rebuild it in the offseason. They spent their self-imposed budget limit more on the lineup and put little to no resources on the bullpen, despite it being a gaping hole. This was always the most likely scenario. But if they can ID a couple of guys as pieces this season (Klein, Morris, Matthews, Festa, Funderburk are contenders) and actually spend a little money for next season then they should be back to a functional bullpen. I'm glad to see Rojas looking impactful, because if he busts while Varland keeps being a high impact arm....
  15. jmlease1
    Congrats to John Klein on his debut. Glad to finally see him up here to see what he can do and have another guy in the bullpen who can throw 95+. I do believe that you can rebuild a bullpen on the cheap, using converted starters, guys you collect from the DFA line, etc...but you have to be willing to actually churn them, not keep sending them out there when they look rotten, or convince yourself that one or two decent outings in the middle of 4 bad ones is the true worth. I don't think the Twins really know how to churn the veterans with the young guys to figure out who can hack it with any kind of speed. The rotation at least looks to be in good hands, but it's already gotten old to see the game be competitive for 5-6 innings and know that the bullpen is more likely than not to cough it up. Prielipp may have given up a couple of big flies but he also limited the damage and did well to get through 5 effective innings. New career high for pitches: 91. He's doing ok. Glad to see him healthy. Lineup didn't do itself any favors; they've been at their best scoring runs when they're taking walks and they made it too easy on Cease.
  16. jmlease1
    did bot have SWR as the clear weakest link in the rotation on my dance card, but it is what it is. He needs to dig in and start figuring it out because he's the only one who isn't holding up his end of the bargain right now. Too hittable, too homer-happy, and not finishing off enough hitters with a K. His first 2 outings were solid enough, so I have to wonder if he's fighting something? 10 hits and 2 BB should push across more than 3 runs, but 1-5 with RISP and Buck was the only non-single. Martin continues to impress with his ability to get on base, and nice to see Lee provide a spark at the bottom of the lineup. But Caratini is in a massive slump right now (his last 2 weeks have been dreadful) and Keaschall still isn't producing anything.
  17. jmlease1
    Like seeing Jenkins hitting doubles like this. It feels like a sign that he's got his swing working. I'm confident that more power will come, and if he's ripping doubles like this you'll start seeing it more and more without adding in too much swing and miss. His plate discipline has stayed good even when he's struggled a bit. Really the only question left for him is whether or not he's going to hit LHP; he was passable in 2025, not great in 2024 and so far this season he's getting murdered. Bummer about Rodriguez; hopefully it's minor and somewhat precautionary because he'd been looking like he was near a call-up. Diaw is on an impressive heater. Good for him. Need to see his bat click, especially if they want him to keep catching. DeBarge continues to be in a real hole and having a rotten week. 3-23 with 1 BB, 8 K's, and no xbhs is pretty dire, and he might be a candidate to get demoted at this rate. Yuck.
  18. jmlease1
    I don't understand the argument that the homers that a player hits don't actually matter. We'll see where Lee ends up and whether or not what he's currently doing is sustainable, but he's increased his triple slash in every category; this isn't just improvement by boosting the SLG and nothing else. Right now he's not a black hole 80% at the plate (in fact, he's never been a black hole 80% of the time; even in his first season he had an OBP of .265, so at worst he could have only been a "black hole" 73% of the time...) and it's not just been the last 10 days that have put him there. It is funny to hear Lee compared to Gallo: they're so unalike at the plate it's hilarious. Gallo was a very selective hitter who swung very hard, missed a lot, but also made very hard contact when he did connect. Lee swings a lot more, doesn't swing nearly as hard, makes a lot more weak contact, but also still puts up higher batting averages. If Lee can keep chasing less and swing with more authority on balls he can do damage with, rather than just getting his bat on everything he can reach, he can continue to progress. The fact that to date in his MLB career he's improved at the plate in every season should be encouraging.
  19. jmlease1
    It probably wasn't mentioned, because he didn't change his approach back this season, he did it back in like 2023. He showed this exact same approach last season in MLB and was successful with it. The biggest part of why he's been even better this season is getting measured for an accurate strike zone for ABS and having a lot more pitches at the top of the zone being called balls rather than strikes like they might have a year ago. He's having a nice season and if he improves his baserunning should be a useful player even when his OBP comes back down to earth a little more.
  20. jmlease1
    More likely explanation: Keaschall was overperforming expectations in a limited sample last season before getting hurt (again). Now there's a book on him and he's pressing and not doing the things that made him successful in the first place. That's much more likely than the Twins messing with him.
  21. jmlease1
    Diaw having a very nice week and his bat seems to be heating up. Houston doing a very nice of making me look very stupid for doubting his ability as a hitter. While it might be nice for him to K a little less, the exchange for showing enough pop to be an impact hitter on any pitcher foolish enough to lob him a meatball is just fine. Kind of feels like he'll get a promotion to AA by June at this rate, which would be excellent. Unfortunately, I remain concerned about DeBarge. Oof, he's having a lot of days where he doesn't get a hit. Can't hit .184 in AA and expect to advance. Rosario on the other hand is having a nice week and starting to drag that ugly BA out of the dumps with his usual combination of patience and pop. Not sure what his future really is, but I find him interesting.
  22. jmlease1
    Ober is doing a heck of a job. Unsure how sustainable it is without a tick more velocity on the fastball, but you never know. location, changing speeds, making hitters uncomfortable, and not being predictable is a recipe for success at almost any velocity and the changeup has been filthy. Still concerning that the fastball gets ripped so hard, but maybe tossing junk after junk can work. Good for him. Fewer hits, but the Twins took their walks and pushed more runs across with those xbhs. Jeffers is really having a nice season and he's been leading the offense. With Buxton hitting like this as well I'd like to see him out of the leadoff spot to drive more runners in, especially since Martin keeps playing well, but that's not a huge issue. Nice work from Morris. If he can give you two good innings every 3 days or so that would be very helpful. Don't need to push him to 3 if he can consistently give you 2. We'll see how he does; I still think the bullpen needs reinforcements and more velocity.
  23. jmlease1
    My only real concern is just how little Quick has pitched in either college or pro. he's got so few innings. But if he continues to maul the competition in cedar Rapids, I see little problem in moving him to AA
  24. jmlease1
    Hard not to be impressed with Quick so far. He's pitched so little overall (only 87 college innings total) that you have to temper the expectations a little bit, and I have to believe that the Twins will be very careful about his workload this season...but this is a fantastic start. He's even been efficient: only needed 41 pitches to get through 4?!? This guy might rack up 4-5 inning starts on a 50 pitch limit! Hey, love to see the early promotion. I thought they might keep him in Ft. Myers this season, just to better monitor his health and workload, but at this rate he might land in Wichita before the season's done. Good for him. Diaw is an interesting prospect. Off to a bit of a slow start at the plate, but his approach has been pretty good. Trying to recall another catcher/CF combo outside of Biggio...and I hate comping an A-ball guy to a Hall of Famer, you know? But it's unusual and speaks to his athleticism. He's not super young like Tait, so he needs to get moving a bit. Be interesting to see where his bat lands by the end of May.
  25. jmlease1
    Yep, here's the crappy bullpen we were worried about. There's literally no one you truly trust right now. You're playing roulette with these guys. Bradley did well. Offense should have given him more support with that many hits, but it can be hard to get the runs when it's only one for extra bases. (hitting for power does matter!)
×
×
  • Create New...