Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

jmlease1

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,264

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    30

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    It's true, OPS is not the only batting metric. But it's a substantially more useful one than RBIs to describe a hitter. Wallner's SLG% may have been a bit empty last season, but at least he has one. Only two Twins last season had a higher SLG: Byron Buxton (who was the best position player on the team by a mile) and Jhonny Pareda (who only had 32 PA's). Having that kind of power threat matters. It was a down season for Wallner, to be sure. But it's always a little surprising to me that people want to cut a guy loose at the first sign of struggle, especially when there's been a track record of much better performance (see also, Ober, Bailey). But it also seems like there's such a bias against Wallner because of style (lots of K's) that maybe some people want him to be bad so they can be right about him. It won't take a lot to get Wallner's hitting back closer to where it was in 2023 & 2024; historically he's been excellent with RISP so the 79 PA's he got this season with poor performance might be more of a fluke (or impacted by the failures of every other hitter not named Buxton to be a consistent threat in the lineup) than a reflection of his actual ability. His BABIP was staggeringly low this season (100 pts below his previous career low), which suggests he was also a bit unlucky. If he figures out a way to cover the top half of the plate better, it's quite easy to see a return to form. Would I prefer him to DH more in 2026? Yes, because that would mean that one of our minor league OF like Rodriguez, Jenkins, Fedko, or Gonzalez has stepped up and shown they can hit MLB pitching. That's the best result for the Twins: Wallner hits like the guy from 2023-2024 and production elsewhere makes it easy to slide him over to DH.
  2. jmlease1
    Ozzie was one of the greatest defensive players in the history of the game, though. (and hit .300 in the minors) Are we ready to comp Houston to Ozzie Smith? Guys who can defend like the Wizard of Oz or Andrelton Simmons are exceptionally rare, and even they hit some.
  3. jmlease1
    Your 3rd sentence works. But right now, there's a fair concern that he hits like Noah Miller or worse. I don't care if he adds more power, more contact, more patience or some combination but he can't hit like he did in Cedar Rapids last season, or even what his combined OPS was between the two levels. The bat has to improve no matter how good the glove is.
  4. jmlease1
    He's got excellent defensive chops, which is great to see. I have real concerns about his ability to hit: his breakout power production in college should be viewed with skepticism, as he played in a bandbox and hit most of those homers in it. The cup of coffee he had at Ft. Myers was encouraging, but the the stint in Cedar Rapids was not. Both were just 12 games, so neither should be seen as determinative, but his time in High-A was brutal enough that the average of the two is still disappointing. I don't care if he doesn't have much HR power if he can make good, hard contact and spray some line drives around. Be enough of a threat that advanced pitchers can't just pound away at him until he gets himself out. Take some walks, show a little gap pop, turn on the occasional hanger while racking up singles and we might have something because the defense plays. I don't think the ceiling is all that high here, because I am unconvinced about his bat, but if he can hit enough he could be an excellent role player who defends all over the dirt, makes ground-ball pitchers look good and get on base enough to get it done. Should be an interesting season in Cedar Rapids to see how his bat plays after a professional off-season program. And the glove is going to be fun to watch. But will he be Noah Miller, part 2 or something more?
  5. jmlease1
    Castro was a nice find (I was extremely skeptical when he first made the Opening Day roster, and was proven quite, quite wrong) but he really shouldn't play SS at this point (which is where the Twins have some questions) and as an OF he doesn't play a good CF either. At this point Martin is as good a bet to do a lot of the things Castro used to do (except play 3B, really) and will be substantially cheaper. I'm rooting for Willi (and I have inside information that he really is a good dude) but he's probably not a great fit here at this point. 2023 was great and so was the first half of 2024. But Castro has looked much more like a utility player without the super for a season and half now, with diminishing positional flexibility. Hope he goes somewhere great and has a bounce back season, but I don't see it happening here.
  6. jmlease1
    I do think it's time to move Winokur off SS; yes, he's still young and wonderfully athletic, but there's little reason to think he can stick there and with Culpepper and Houston (De Andrade is a better SS, frankly and the Twins are already shifting him too) ahead of him, I'm not sure we're doing him any favors. How about 3B and CF? Good to see Mendez continuing to hit, less good that he's not getting as much time and not seeing any of it at 1B like I think some of us (including me) had hoped. But it will be great if his hit tool keeps moving him along. Been kind of a rough season for Amick. Started out well then battled injuries, and so far he hasn't been able to get on track in the AFL, while getting plunked multiple times. Welcome to pro baseball? I like seeing him split time at 3B and 1B though. It's worth seeing if he can hold up at 3B, but good to get him reps at 1B. Stay healthy, guys.
  7. jmlease1
    That's one definition, but I don't think it's all that universal. in the context of all draft picks, making MLB and being replacement level is a real feat, but expectations were unquestionably higher for Brooks Lee, who was a Top 100 prospect (and not just a guy who snuck in to the 90's), played in the Futures Game, and wasn't there just on scholarship by virtue of a top draft spot: he produced in the minors and moved up quickly like a college hitter should. It's part of why I keep thinking about the back injury and whether it's changed his profile.
  8. jmlease1
    Lot of stuff to unpack for Brooks Lee, who looked like a high floor player at worst coming out of the draft and rising through the minors quickly. Is that player still in there? The bat speed and selectivity at the plate are clearly an issue: he's got the bat skills to put the ball in play often enough, but swinging at pitcher's pitches rather than waiting for something in his favor is going to hold him back, especially with the poor bat speed. Improving both would be ideal, but even getting one of those things where it needs to be would be impactful. Have to wonder whether there's ongoing impact on his swing from the back injury. Is that still holding him back from ripping line drives instead of lazy flies and easy grounders? He played 139 games this year so you'd think he was healthy, but back injuries are tricky things. I just don't know if he has the range to stick at SS for a full season. He makes good decisions out there, generally handles the balls he gets to well, but the arm isn't particularly strong even if it's pretty accurate. (his arm plays better at 3B even though it's frequently longer throws he's able to set and throw harder) He was pretty disappointing at the plate in 2025, but was actually better than he was in 2024. But an OBP under .300 isn't good enough and he'll need to push that SLG up to .400 to be a reasonable and consistent threat, rather than someone who runs into a homer by turning on a ball that someone left up. I haven't given up on Lee yet, but I'm disappointed in him so far. My expectations were significantly higher. He looked like a guy with a good hit tool and solid fundamentals with a high baseball IQ, and unless the hit tool perks up, he's a utility guy who shouldn't play SS much, which limits his viability on the bench, especially since he doesn't bring any speed to the table.
  9. jmlease1
    Heck, look at the corner OF for the Dodgers and Jays; a full season of Austin Martin might have made those teams quite happy...
  10. jmlease1
    Defensively, that's possibly true, but the fact that he hits at or above a league average level makes him a viable catcher. Catchers that can hit are few and far between these days, Cal Raleigh not withstanding. But this was the first season since his rookie year in 2020 that Jeffers put up a negative defensive bWAR, so there's also a possibility that this season was a bit of a statistical fluke and he could bounce back. Either way, he's still an easy tender. I was a little surprised that he didn't get moved at the deadline and that there was reportedly no market for him. But maybe other teams are looking at him more like Mr. Lenz seems to be and predicting further degradation in his catching and hitting.
  11. jmlease1
    This has certainly been the Twins model for building a bullpen as well. They haven't been spending significant resources on bullpen guys, they primarily have been building via waivers, minimum salary signings, and internal development (especially converting starting pitching prospects into relievers). And it's worked quite well for the Twins, overall. They haven't been spending big piles of cash on relievers and don't even look to extend their own guys to multi-year deals as a rule. Are the Twins following MKE's example, or did MKE follow the Twins? (better answer: both of them followed the Rays)
  12. jmlease1
    Yeah, I think the deck has been stacked a little here. What is a postseason waiver-wire claim in Kriedler doing here? He's not part of any core. Roden had 12 games with us. was he bad? He surely was, but it's 12 games. He got here the equivalent of 20 minutes ago, and was hardly the key piece in the Varland deal. The guys who were either looked at as being part of a core wave are/were: Julien, Wallner, Miranda, Lewis, Larnach, Lee, Buxton, Jeffers, Keaschall, and Martin. Clemens, Gasper, Fitzpatrick, Paredes, McCusker, Kiersey...these were fliers and waiver claims. Even if Clemens has turned back into a pumpkin, it's not like we've lost anything. Rodriguez hasn't played a game in MLB yet, what's he doing here? There's plenty of worry and concern about the actually guys that matter without cherry-picking out everyone who didn't hit, or focusing only on the bad parts for every single player. Someone needed an editor here.
  13. jmlease1
    The converse can be true; several role-players get hot at the time same in a short series and suddenly the team with the $200M+ payroll is at home wondering what the hell happened. It's why if you have a chance to make the playoffs you should always go for it because things can get weird in a short series. But the elite players are more likely to be able to hold up when the benches, rotations, and bullpens tighten up. It certainly seemed to hurt the Brewers ability to put runs up on the board against the Dodgers, when Durbin was the only guy that was hitting. And if you're relying on getting baserunners and aggression to get you extra runs, that definitely seems to get harder in the playoffs.
  14. jmlease1
    It's a fair point. The fewer stars you have, the more you're relying on guys that raised your floor in the regular season to get hot during the playoffs. And part of what made MKE so successful in the regular season was not giving innings and ABs to bad players. (116 starts went to guys with an ERA+ over 100, and that doesn't include Misiorowski's 14 with an ERA+ of 95) They had a deep and quality bullpen; the only really bad guys in there that pitched for them were Alexander & Pavamps, who had 60 innings between them. None of their position players with more than 100 PA's had a bWAR at replacement level. (Joey Ortiz was the only real dog in the starters) They were also very healthy...which is something that makes a huge difference for every team and has nothing to do with style. But they didn't have a lot in terms of star power, which seemed like the wall they ran into against the Dodgers, who were able to get their pitching healthy (enough) for the playoffs and have plenty of stars in the lineup to generate runs.
  15. jmlease1
    role players and catchers it seems. But former star players rarely work out as managers. Some of them aren't interested/able to do the grind that good/great managers do in knowing everything that's going on with their team, obsessing about the details, crushing tape to find an edge, etc. Others struggle to communicate the how about things that they did as players or don't understand why players aren't able to just do something that the star player sees as just what a player is supposed to do...because they're asking players with lesser talent to do what they did. Now, if you think you can stack up the coaching roster with guys that do all the teaching and strategy prep and the manager is a CEO type whose primary responsibility is communicating with the media, setting an example/standard, handling the vibes and personalities of the clubhouse, etc then maybe someone like a Torii Hunter or Albert Pujols works? It's not like they don't know baseball, and the media loooooves Hunter, which would certainly generate some positive press. But would either be a good day-to-day manager? I think @dxpavelka is right: they'd be the exceptions to the rule.
  16. jmlease1
    He's an easy tender option for sure. I don't see him as getting traded in the offseason; this front office has shown itself to be pretty adverse to selling low on a player unless they're at the almost cut stage, and Ober is nowhere near that. If he has a sharp first half but Ryan & Lopez are still here and we're seeing more out of people like Bradley, Matthews, SWR, Abel, etc I could see him get moved at the deadline? But still more likely that he's here for 2026 and maybe gets traded in his walk year (presuming the billionaire owners in MLB don't implode the 2027 season...) I like Ober. I think he's one of those guys that's never going to be an ace, but can be a playoff caliber starter.
  17. jmlease1
    I guess I like the fact that not every candidate in the pool is from exactly the same mold? In my experience, having a candidate pool where people have a range of experiences/pathways is a good way to help you find the right fit for the organization's needs. When you're slicing and dicing between 4-6 people that have the exact same profile it can start getting into just vibes, which isn't probably the best way. None of these look like deal-breaker, "oh god, why?!?" picks, but none of them are 100% slam-dunk, "hire them immediately for whatever salary they want!" picks either. Which is sort of to be expected?
  18. jmlease1
    Because they want to win. Their owner wants to win. They were woefully short on run prevention last season and it was an embarrassing collapse. Twins don't have to trade Ryan, and there will be multiple bidders if they make him available. They shouldn't be able to pry him loose without offering great prospects. Of course, if you're of the opinion that Falvey is a moronic incompetent who is responsible for every failure of the organization in the last decade and someone else was actually responsible for any successes...then yeah, we'll only get a bag of magic beans. I'll admit, the idea of trading a star pitcher to the Mets brings up unpleasant memories of what the potential return could be. Mets do have the prospect capital to make a deal that works for both teams. But I suspect McLean is off the table for them? The late season, successful debut in MLB makes him a guy they're counting on for 2026 in the rotation and swapping him for Ryan doesn't necessarily move the needle for them. They want a rotation that has Ryan and McLean leading the way, with guys like Manea & Montas moved off the roster, and guys like Peterson, Holmes, or Senga moved down to the back end.
  19. jmlease1
    agree on basically all of this. I think it would be very encouraging if the twins could & would lock up Ryan for the next 5-7 seasons (and I feel like the risk is fairly low, as these things go). I just fear that Cheap Pohlad payrolls make it more likely that he gets tendered and traded. Hope the scenarios you propose above come to pass. Even if Ryan isn't a true #1 (YMMV on him) he's still a guy who can anchor your rotation and be predictable in the kind of performances you can expect. I'd really hate to lose that. Plus, I really enjoy watching Ryan pitch.
  20. jmlease1
    I hope the Twins don't tender Joe Ryan. Because I'm hoping that they work out a long-term deal for 3-5 seasons. I recognize that I'm probably living in fantasy land. (we have ice cream cake here, so it's nice)
  21. jmlease1
    There's no question Royce was running better and looked much more comfortable doing it late in the season. I agree he won't likely ever get elite speed back, but if he can avoid leg injuries for once he can be an above average runner. The big question is whether or not he can make contact without swinging at everything. His month-by-month splits are interesting, if not exactly encouraging, for July-Oct. July was kind of the old Royce: hitting well, making hard contact, taking a few walks but not a lot. August was a mess: little contact, more walks, but no pop. Sept/Oct he started making contact again, but was swinging at everything (1 walk in the last 25 games? Oof.) Is he serious about hitting or guessing out there? I was pleased to see the improvement on defense; he looked much more sound and confident out there in the second half of the season, and didn't seem to be taking his troubles at the plate out into the field. Obviously, he gets tendered. Hopefully he can get on a good off-season program that gets him in a better place at the plate and with a strong and healthy lower half going into spring training. The talent is still there, and it's hard to believe that he simply won't hit if he can avoid significant leg injuries.
  22. jmlease1
    We should not. And no one, literally no one should believe anything anyone associated with Twins ownership says about the team's finances without access to the books and a forensic accountant. Sorry, Tom Pohlad: you're a nice guy, but your family has no credibility on this issue. Hells bells, no owner in pro sports have any credibility when it comes to finances. They will always slant things in whatever way is most beneficial to them at the time. Do I believe the Twins were on pace to lose $40M last season? Not really. And frankly, any losses they may have been taking were a result of their own mismanagement (media rights debacles, lack of business acumen to grow the team's popularity, reportedly loading it up with debt to avoid a capital call, inflating the payroll and then cutting it off...the list is long) If they want to lean in more on defense and speed on the baseball side...ok, I guess? It's a strategy choice, and maybe they'll get in the right players to do it. But the bigger issue is if Twins Way 2.0 is really just "bottom 5 payrolls until the union throws a fit".
  23. jmlease1
    On the one hand, they were part of some good success here. On the other hand they were both already here, and maybe we need a fresh voice more than a turn back to the good ol' days voice. I don't think you can blame Shelton for all the ills of Pittsburgh, but they did get the new manager bounce when he was sacked.
  24. jmlease1
    I'd bet Naylor getting 4 for $70M before Arraez a) getting 5 years, or 2) getting $70M. Maybe I'm completely wrong, but there was so little interest in him at $14M on an expiring last winter that I have trouble seeing anyone re-upping him for 5 years at the same rate. But Naylor is definitely getting more and for longer.
  25. jmlease1
    oh, I hear you. for some reason, pitcher injuries always seem worse. I'm not going to pretend this is entirely rational.
×
×
  • Create New...