jmlease1

I guess I'm unreasonable. Bauer is being paid like he's Max Scherzer and he does not have that kind of track record of consistent success. He had an elite stretch during the pandemic that's out of line with his career totals. Expecting him to be at career highs in H/9, K/9, BB/9 at the same time he's near a career best in HR/9 again for an entire season seems unlikely. His H/9 wasn't just a career best it was far beyond anything he'd ever turned in and screams Small Sample Size. Again: I'd love to know what crystal ball knows for sure that you're gonna get 2020 Trevor Bauer for a full year, when the 2019 Cincy version (which was over almost the exact same number of games) was dreadful. Donaldson has a consistent track record of success when he's on the field. His one bugaboo is injury and he got bit last year (still played almost half the season and was productive; 131 OPS+ shows he can still hit). Hardly useless. The Dodgers can do this because their financial resources are such they can eat a $40M contract if he busts (it'll still hurt even them), but they are one of the few. But it's still a high-risk move.

The Bauer deal is wildly great for the player. If he's awesome, he can opt-out and get an even bigger deal. If he's average, he sticks for another year at a giant salary, rinse and repeat. I mean, great for the player...but this is the kind of contract risk the Twins can't afford. Bauer was unquestionably the choice for the Cy last year. But there's a real chance that this year he's roughly as effective overall as Jake Odorizzi. Bauer's upside is higher and he'll pitch deeper into games, but going back to 2015, Odorizzi has had more 3+ bWAR seasons than Bauer. Maybe Bauer is great again, dominant and unhittable...or maybe 11 starts in the pandemic aren't a very good judge of his value and he regresses much closer to his career averages and he's a 3 bWAR pitcher and staggeringly overpaid. As great as Bauer was over 11 starts last season, he was trash in 10 starts after getting dealt to Cincy the previous year. There is massive risk in this deal. I wouldn't throw this kind of money at Bauer even if I had it in the budget. Maybe it'll pay out for the Dodgers, but I think the only person who wins on this one is Bauer, who gets to be a FA again quickly if he has a great year, gets paid top 5 starter money the next 2 years regardless, and gets to do it on a team that is loaded with talent so they'll win a bunch even if he's not all that great.

I liked Wade, but he was behind Cave as a backup and with Kirilloff and Larnach looking ready it was hard to see The Walking Man get much of an opportunity. He's a solid defender...but not a great one. He draws some walks...but he's basically never shown any real power. Hard to see him playing much if at all, and frankly we have better options for hitters. Shaun Anderson is interesting. Probably good that he has options left, because he's not a finished product yet. But he's clearly got some talent with that slider and if the fastball can back it up he could be a very useful RH reliever. We'll see if he can control it well enough to keep making guys look silly. Decent little swap. I'm not sure Wade had a ton of value out there, so this seems like a good move for the Twins and might work out fine for the Giants too.

I'd be happy to get Clippard back because his reverse splits would give them another option against lefties and he wouldn't cost much. I don't see much need to get another mediocre RHP and see no reason not to let Stashak have a slot: he's pitched well enough to deserve it. I don't think they need another backup INF at this point; If you're gonna carry that kind of guy on the 26-man, let a Nick Gordon or Travis Blankenhorn compete for it but you don't need the same kind of backup SS option when you have Polanco & Simmons on the same team. What's the advantage to having a no-hit utility guy who's D is probably overrated anyway sitting on the bench just because he's a SS? Just insurance against long-term injuries to both Simmons & Polanco? If both those guys go down for 2 months we've got bigger problems one of the utility guys still out there won't solve. It'll be interesting to see what they grab as a starter: cheap veteran on a make-good to compete for the 5th slot or someone like odorizzi who might find himself without a chair as the music stops and decides to jump in with the twins because they're a good team and they want to be a FA when the market is back to normal. I think it's one or the other and I have no idea which it will be; it'll depend on who's available at what price. (Gotta say, the rotation is pretty deep if Happ or Odorizzi is your 5th starter)

It's a solid signing, shores up the bullpen nicely. he's not going to put up the SSS stats he did in 2020 over the course of the season, but there's no reason to think that he can't be similar to any of his previous three seasons, overall. I don't think he's going to be the "closer" because I don't think we're going to have that kind of role defined, but I'm sure he'll be called upon to finish many games. I feel pretty good about the bullpen right now: Colome, Rogers, Duffey, Alcala, Robles, Stashak, and Thielbar. Rogers is going to be deployed in more matchup related scenarios and guys like Robles & Colome will end up throwing a bunch of 9th innings that are actually lower leverage. There's probably going to be 1 more guy in there...who won't end up pitching enough to stay sharp. there are some interesting young arms to provide some depth, the top guys are good enough that if one or two of them get in a slump you can pull back on them a bit, give them lower leverage spots without screwing yourself. I think they could use to sign one more starter (veteran on a make-good kind of deal) to compete for the 5th spot/provide depth, but that's about it. If there's a good deal on a better starter, I'd love of them to go for it...but I don't feel like they need to do it, only if it's the right guy at the right number.

Really happy to have Cruz back for another run. It's a reasonable deal for both sides and one year limits the risk. It's a good bridge so the Twins don't have to count on too many rookies too fast, but doesn't block young hitters from getting the opportunities they'll need for too long. Cruz is a leader on the team and it'll be good to have him back. Will he regress? Probably a little, but I suspect they'll do a good job in keeping him rested and ready and it's just great to have a feared bat like that in the heart of the order. The lineup looks strong, with plenty of depth. Injuries will end up being the key for them like it is for so many teams: if Buxton and Donaldson and the middle infielders stay relatively healthy and are in a groove come playoffs...I expect the Twins to be in them. I think we'll see the team sign one more veteran RHP reliever for depth (probably in the $2-3M range) and a veteran reclamation project to compete for the 5th starter. Get that done and I feel pretty good about the off-season. (But I'm also a huge proponent of adding Andrelton Simmons)

Schoop lost the job to Arraez during the season, so it's pretty hard to say he wasn't adequately replaced. Schoop played better last year for Det than he did for us, but it's to say he was significantly better than Arraez, just a bit healthier. Considering Arraez is younger and cheaper, I think the Twins did just fine there. Time will tell if Kirilloff or Larnach are capable replacements for Rosario, but assuming they won't be before the season even started indicates a pretty significant bias. Rosario isn't a bad player by any means, but the market has already shown that he wasn't worth the $10M he was set to get in arbitration, since he only got 1/$8M. Would the Twins have resigned him at that number? Maybe, but the way pride messes with people, as soon as the Twins declined arbitration, he was never coming back here. Who else have the Twins not adequately replaced in recent years? CJ Cron? I think they managed that one just fine (adding Donaldson and moving Sano over). Jason Castro? Ryan Jeffers stepped in rather well, I'd say. Adrianza? We just added Andrelton Simmons. Robbie Grossman? We replaced him with Cruz. We haven't replaced Marwin yet, but considering how much he sucked last year...it shouldn't be that hard to replace that production. (Frankly, I wouldn't mind seeing Blankenhorn get a shot; with Arraez/Polanco taking most of the remaining AB at 2B, backing up SS, and 3B...outside of protection against injury there aren't going to be that many ABs out there) Rosario had a good run with the Twins and was a nice player. But his defense declined, his plate discipline never really improved and there's really no reason to believe he's going to have a renaissance as a player.

Law is well respected as a prospect evaluator and he's not a guy who just looks at stat lines when doing his evaluations. He scouts players live and on tape and knows what he's doing. He has biases and like everyone he will have misses, but he does a good job of explaining why he's rating players where they are and what he projects them to end up being as a player. He's an actual professional and has earned it. He explains straight-up in his ranking this year how much harder it was to put together the list and feel confident in accuracy because of the pandemic and how much less he was able to see any of these players. That's why he's being listened to. I may not always agree with KLaw, but I would never ignore him.

Target Field has a relatively large LF, as I recall. If they're worried about coverage, they might move Kepler. Probably not, considering how well Kepler's arm plays in RF. We've burned before having guys that just couldn't get to balls (Willingham!), but it's probably not that big of a deal with Kirilloff at this point.

I think you have to feel very good about this top 5 if you're a Twins fan. There's high ceiling talent here, you've got guys who have been moving through the system showing consistent success, and you're seeing guys living up to their potential. Royce is the one who was probably damaged the most by losing out on a season of minor league ball: he needs the ABs to work on his hitting and the reps in the INF to work on his D, but the tools are still really impressive. Kirilloff is going to be exciting, I think. Last year on the prospect list for him. I really think his approach at the plate and gorgeous swing will play immediately in the majors and we're going to see him slashing liners all over the park this year. Kepler should be able to move over to LF without much trouble; he's certainly got the range to play there and his arm plays at any position in the OF, so it makes more sense to move him and slot Kirilloff in at RF I think. But Kirilloff could probably hold down LF if needed right now; it's not like he's Josh Willingham out there. I'm excited about Duran too; he's got an interesting pitch mix and if he's able to keep refining the secondary offerings it'll help the fastball play up a bit better (weird to say that about a pitch that hits triple digits, but it doesn't have a lot of movement, so guys will hit speed if you pump it in there too often). That splinker of his is fun and a bit unusual, which should make some guys look pretty silly bouncing wimpy grounders out there. Fun to see some of these high end guys getting so close to MLB, and it's gonna be great to be able to spot them in Saint Paul.

Keoni Cavaco is one of the players who was hurt by not having a minor league season in 2020. He clearly needs serious development and missing a season like that at his age could really set him back. I hope he gets the playing and development time he needs this year and we can see where he's really at, but right now I wouldn't put him this high on the list. He might have been a reach when drafted and he definitely struggled in his first (limited) exposure to pro ball. I hope this isn't the FO's first big draft pick bust, but I'm a bit worried about this one. Big big fan of Balazovic (although I keep screwing up pronouncing his last name) and I really think he's going be a nice starter. Will he make his debut in 2021? I guess that depends a little on where he starts the year and what happens with injuries. But I think he's on the path to compete for a spot in the rotation for 2022 for sure. Looking forward to seeing him pitch.

Looking forward to seeing how celestino's hit tool progresses. If he can get on base at a respectable pace he'll be a very useful player because the D is legit. CFs who cover miles and miles of ground make me happy, they are so wonderfully fun to watch, and I will probably overrate them in my head.

Love this move. Simmons gives us a plus defender at SS for the first time in quite a while, and while he has very little pop in his bat, he does make good contact and take a few walks, so it's not like he's a black hole at the plate. He's not a great hitter, but he'll be ok at the bottom of the order. I'm just excited about the defense. And with Polanco in a super-utility role at 2B, SS, maybe a little 3B, occasionally in the OF if needed...that should be an upgrade over what Marwin gave us last season. Even more importantly, if Polanco gets nicked up again they should be able to rest him rather than having him play through it. We just didn't have the SS depth last year.

I think right now it's Kirilloff. He's passed the test at every level so far and looks to have an elite hit tool that's backed up with performance. Lewis has great athleticism and elite potential, but he hasn't locked into a defensive position yet and he hasn't unlocked his hit potential yet. This is also probably the last time we talk about them this way, because Kirilloff is about to graduate from prospect status. While it's possible Larnach or Rooker beats him out for a starting position in the OF, he's the odds-on favorite to grab a corner OF slot. And I don't think he's gonna let it go once he lands it. The only real knock against Kirilloff is health: he's been dinged a few times. Hopefully he's able to stay on the field and slash line drives at everyone and every thing. I can't wait to see him out there for the Twins. I'm still high on Royce Lewis, but he's still got some work to do. He'll be back as #1 after this season as Kirilloff graduates. Hopefully the loss of last season's minor league games don't set him back.

Trout is an amazing player and the best in the game right now. But he's a different player than Hank Aaron. If Trout can be this kind of player though his 30's like he was in his 20's...then he's the greatest of all-time. but Hank Aaron was legitimately great through his entire 30's too. It's so hard to be great for so long. And Trout, for all his brilliance has never had to deal with the same kind of crap that Hank Aaron endured

Hank Aaron was insanely great. To be so consistently great for so long is just unbelievable. He won an MVP and deserved it, but could have easily have won several more (biggest barrier: Willie freakin' Mays). Top 10 in MVP finishes 13 times, including 8 top 5. More all-star nods than anyone, and again: deserved them (19 of the 21 were legit all-star caliber seasons, which is nuts). Led the NL in HRs at 23 and at 33 (with 2 others in between). Aaron was as good a hitter as anyone in baseball at age 37, his 18th year in baseball. He won RBI crowns, batting titles, gold gloves...just an amazing player. It's hard to believe we'll ever see a player like Hank Aaron ever again in baseball.

I'd rather spend $8M on a depth starter than that kind of money on a reliever. It's just got much higher potential for real impact. He's the #4, behind Pineda, but expecting all your starters to be healthy the entire season is unrealistic, which is why you don't want to go into the season needing to fill 2 slots in the rotation from unproven guys in your system: those guys are probably going to get their shots anyways as we go 7-8+ guys getting starts. It's possible Happ is cooked, but that's why this is a 1 year deal. It's not a major splash move, but it's a "raise the floor" move and those have been critical to the team's success in the Falvey/Levine era: trying to make sure they don't hand off piles of innings to guys who can't pitch/aren't ready to pitch in MLB. Yes, you need top-end talent to compete for a title, but reducing the number of ABs taken and innings pitched by bad players is also important in getting you there in the first place.

I think this is a solid depth signing. He wasn't bad for the Yankees last year and isn't far removed from being really good. but we'll see how much he has left in the tank. I think you always need depth in starting pitching, and this helps. price seems about right?

just I was not happy with this trade at the time, mostly because I wasn't a huge Capps fan (he did really well that first year) and more over I was already on the "don't over pay for reliever because he's a closer" train. And that applied to trade or free agency. I just didn't think Capps was worth giving up a guy who looked like he was going to be an excellent hitting catcher for a decade. Capps was actually better than I expected that first year, but went back to being just another reliever afterwards and his career ended early. But he was overvalued for what he actually did and people got fooled by small sample size a little. Ramos never really lived up to the hype; he made 2 all-star teams, but he didn't really deserve either of them and ended up being a good but not great catcher who struggled to stay healthy. This goes down as being a bad trade because Ramos' value was pretty dang high as a prospect and it felt like the twins panic-traded for an ok closer and didn't get the dominant arm they really needed. It could have been worse.

So because he didn't get a chance early enough in his career, you want to write-off his upside? He doesn't have the 98mph fastball, so ignore his results and bury him. What a waste. (also, Guerrier had an 11 year MLB career.)

The writer's whose opinion I care the least about at the Athletic is Jim Bowden's.

Stashak is an interesting bullpen option. I'd say his viability as a higher-leverage guy depends on his ability to not give up hits at this point. He can get Ks, he doesn't give up too many BBs, he keeps the ball in the park at a very reasonable ratio. If he can keep the H/9 down around the levels he did in the minors (and did in 2020) then he's going to be a guy you can count on, not just to come in and get you through the 6th inning, but to come in and get you out of a jam too with runners on base. I'll be watching to see where his WHIP goes this season, especially his h/9. If he's giving up better than a hit per inning, then he's a middle reliever who comes in to get you an inning or so, best served coming in at the start of an inning with a clean sheet. You worry less about relievers giving up more on the BB side than giving up hits as part of WHIP when they also have high K rates because they're keeping the ball out of play when runners are on base. But if you're a guy that gives up too many cheap singles consistently...then the value in higher leverage situations declines. Stashak's ability to get Ks, keep the ball in the park and not hand out too many walks gives him real value as a reliever. His ability to ascend in the bullpen rankings will depend on how well he keeps guys from getting hits. He's useful regardless, but how much versatility he can give will be interesting to watch. I definitely think he should be a contender to pick up some of those innings from May & Romo.

I think if we'd signed Hendriks and/or Hand the article would have been written. It would have been along the lines of "He's good and makes the bullpen better, but is it the best use of our resources?" Which I think is fair. Would I have wanted Hendriks? Sure, in a vacuum. In a world where the Twins have no financial constraints. Do I want him at what the ChiSox paid him? I don't think so. He's getting a premium as a "proven closer" and it's just so rare that those guys add enough extra value consistently over relievers that can be found/made at much lower prices that it's usually not worth it. (I do think it's ok to pay a bit of an extra premium to retain your own players; continuity can matter, showing loyalty can matter for organizational reputation, etc. but even that has limits)

I was interested in Kluber...but $11M is pretty high for a guy who might be completely washed. This is the advantage to being a team like the Yankees or the Dodgers: you can toss an extra $3-5M on a contract and not care about it. On a 1 year deal they can basically out-bid anyone and it doesn't really matter. I wonder what it will take to bring back Odorizzi on his version of the 1 year "prove it" deal? I don't think he's getting the kind of multi-year deal he wants and a 1 year deal to show he's healthy and rebuild his value with an organization he likes and has had respect with makes sense, but what's the number to get it done? $5? $8M $12M? Kluber has a better track record and higher ceiling, but a much more serious injury to return from. I'm thinking it's $8-10M, but who knows. I would sign him as the 4th starter. LeMahieu never seemed like he was on the Twins radar this offseason. Frankly, he never seemed likely to leave the Yankees at all and barely seemed to be on the market. The international signings look interesting, but both SS are lottery tickets at this point. That said I'm glad to see the Twins continue to make investments in the international market: they've had success in developing guys this way before. I'll admit, I do worry a bit about grabbing guys who are 16 and have so much physical development to do: I do think that gets harder to project, and you can end up having to make some hard decisions about Rule 5 when they're still deep in development mode. And with the minor leagues contracting...where and how do they play?

They're a good team, but the only thing Moncado has on Donaldson is health. Moncado has had exactly one good year as a hitter, and if he doesn't repeat it this year it'll be a classic fluke year. He's not a significant defensive player, either. Tim Anderson has a flashy BA, but Polanco has just as much ability in getting on base, so if he's our starting SS he can compete. in 2019, when Anderson was grabbing praise and a batting title, Polanco was the better player. Yes, on D too. Luis Robert has a great future...but Buxton is still more talented, and despite the injuries last season was more productive. Basically the only thing the ChiSox lineup in the field really has on the Twins as currently constituted is health...and it's really hard to project health.