jmlease1

Bench in '72 and Piazza in '97 definitely should be in the conversation, but Mauer in '09 was about as good as a catcher has ever been. Just an insanely great season.

I think there's a big difference between someone like Johan (who played 12 seasons and was the BEST pitcher in baseball for 5-7 years) and Fidrych (who only played 5 years, and made fewer starts in his last 4 years combined than his first season). Realistically, Fidrych was a 1 year wonder, and while it was an amazing year (he should have won the Cy too, not just RoY) at the end of the day you can't put someone in the Hall for one year. Fernando is a very different case and is closer to Santana in that he only had a run of about 7 years as an top pitcher...but Fernando wasn't in Johan's class. He was a reasonable pick for the Cy in '81, but it's hard to make an argument that he was ever the best pitcher in the NL again. He wasn't snubbed or screwed over for any awards and after the age of "26" he literally had 1 good season left in him despite playing 9 more years. Johan was simply a better pitcher during their peak runs. Fernando padded out his counting stats with a long period of pitching where he was just another guy. But I think it's fair to look at the guy who was brilliant for a shorter period as being at least as worthy as the guy who wasn't as good, but sustained it longer. Don Sutton was a fine pitcher who threw basically forever...but the only thing he has over Johan was health and he sailed in to the Hall. I'm not saying Sutton isn't deserving...just that Johan is too. When the peak is that high for that long, I'm more than willing to ignore not having an extra 4-6 mediocre years tacked on.

I don't necessarily disagree that Johan might be a fringy HoF candidate, but he deserved better than a 1 and done. The Koufax comps are better than people realize: Johan's bWAR in 12 seasons sits at 51.7. Koufax (also in 12 seasons) 48.9. The JAWS numbers are pretty similar too. If he wins the 3rd Cy (which Colon robbed him of, an indefensible decision) does it make a difference? He wasn't an awful pitcher after coming back from the disastrous injury, but he also wasn't the same guy. If he'd limped along for another 2-3 years and swept up another 15 wins or would it/should it have mattered? Personally, I think it shouldn't. Johan was a comet, but the level of dominance is enough to make up for the relative lack of longevity. He was THE best pitcher in baseball for a 5-7 year period and everyone knew it. There's a place in the Hall for guys who dominate to that level for an extended period but don't have the 18 year career. More importantly, he deserved a few years on the ballot for people to truly look at and appreciate his brilliant career. It's not Johan's fault that Liriano blew out his elbow in 2006 and that wonderful team didn't make the deep run in the playoffs we all wanted. (Johan was terrific in game 1, just got outdueled by Zito) The bats didn't show that series. Should that make a difference? Again, I don't think so. Johan wasn't a good pitcher, he was a great pitcher. He was an amazing pitcher. A signature player with a signature pitch and they should have taken his HoF case a little more seriously. He deserved much better than 1 and done.

Bob Allison comes to mind for me. 31.1 fWAR as a Twin (removing all the Senators seasons, though I'm fine including them) with a terrific run in the prime of his career. Feels like he's become the forgotten man from those great Twins clubs in the 60's. Heck of a player, a big thumper in the middle of the lineup.

welp, that's some hyperbole. Eddie had his lowest BA in three years. Lowest OBP in 3 years. lowest OPS & OPS+. The defense was not good, by any measure. I'm sure the injury influenced his struggles, but I don't see how you can look at Eddie Rosario's 2019 and think that it wasn't a decline from 2018. (unless you think that HRs and RBI are the end-all be-all of batting stats, I guess) Eddie is a good player, and when he's doing well on D and showing a little patience at the plate he can be a very good player, but he's never been an all-star, let alone an MVP candidate. You have to feel good about our OF depth right now. Cave & Wade can both play LF just fine and their offensive production, while different, would likely match Rosario's overall offensive contribution from last year. With Rooker, Kirilloff, and Larnach in the wings it's hard to see the Twins keeping Rosario after this year with his price tag continuing to rise, unless he really turns the defense around and shows much more patience at the plate. I don't see him getting dealt this year, though. If he's crushing it, the Twins will ride that into the playoffs. If he's struggling, they won't get anything for him anyways. The only way he gets moved before the deadline is if the whole team collapses and they're out of contention while he's crushing it. That seems...unlikely.

more than one strength; dude also gets a lot of walks for someone who collects that many hits. He controls the strike zone, which is another strength.

Well, I'm not worried about guys getting "blocked"; that just means they're a trade asset or strong depth, and right now the twins are in great shape at 2B. Arraez gives them a strong starter who could get to all-star level if his D improves and he can keep/add enough power in his bat to consistently keep his SLG% in the .400-.425 range. He's young, he's cheap, he looks like he can contend for a batting title...that's awesome. Adrianza can back up 2B just fine, but Marwin probably isn't an answer there any longer. Maybe I'm wrong, but I doubt he's got much middle infield left in him and is basically a backup at the corners: 3B, 1B, LF, RF. That's perfectly ok, IMHO. Gordon's bat looks ready now, and I'm almost certain he would have gotten the call up in Arraez's place if he hadn't gone down with injury right before the opening appeared. I think he's the first middle infielder called up this year and probably gets added if Polanco, Arraez, or Adrianza goes on the IL. While I'm a little concerned about his ability to hold down SS in MLB, I'm less worried about his ability to hold down 2B. Blankenhorn may be the next iteration of the current version of Marwin, but hopefully he can still play 2B for a while as needed as well. His bat looks like it might be close (I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him at AAA by mid-season) and if needed he'll be in line right behind Gordon. The pipeline looks good to fill 2B right now. It looks like we should get some consistency there for a number of years with Arraez, which is kind of exciting: I really don't want to go back to 1998-2012. 15 years of looking for a 2B after Knoblauch got traded until Dozier arrived. That was 15 years of instability or inability or both. The list of primary 2B in those years: Todd Walker (1 ok year, 1 awful year), the immortal Jay Canizaro (ugh), 4 seasons of Luis Rivas (awful), a Nick Punto sighting (in one of his no-hit years), 2 years of Luis Castillo (competent but on the downslide), 2 years of Alexi Casilla (gah), 1 year of Orlando Hudson (quality!), 2 more years of Alexi Casilla (ok, barely). the years between Knoblauch and Dozier were pretty grim at 2B for Twins fans. I feel much better where we're at now with Arraez locked in and depth in the minors that might actually have a future as opposed to "we got no one else".

I feel much better about our rotation depth this year than last year. there are still question marks, but that's normal for most teams and there are enough options that if some of them bust we have other avenues to try. I feel like the FO has done a good job in making sure the floor should be high. If Dobnak, Smeltzer, and/or Thorpe see significant time this year it doesn't feel like one of those "Oh, God!" moments. (If all three of them are in the rotation at the end of the season...then we almost certainly got hit by a bad rash of injuries and that's just the way it goes sometimes)

I think Celestino could hold down the position defensively just fine right now; the fear is that a) he wouldn't be able to hit his weight in MLB right now, and exposing him to that kind of barrage might stunt his development as a hitter for multiple years. When guys aren't hitting they're going to tinker with their approach and he could go from a guy who just needs plenty of reps in the minors to build a hitting base to a guy who is all over the place and has no core to build off of as a hitter. Royce Lewis doesn't have the experience in CF to really be a wise option as a CF replacement at this point. And he could get overwhelmed by MLB pitching at this point too. The best option is going to be moving Kepler over again and letting Wade/Cave fill in the corner if Buxton misses significant time. If he gets a major injury that's going to wipe out the season for him by June, then you can look at trade options too.

That's why OPS+ is part of the comparison: whether the ball was juiced or not isn't going to have a significant impact on OPS+, because that's a comp to the current season's league average. So if the ball is juiced and everyone has an extra 15% in slugging % or if it's a dead ball and the slugging % is down 20% it doesn't matter: the comp is against league average, allowing you to assess a player from very different eras based on how much better they were than the league average hitter. Donaldson & Sano could be one of the best hitting pairs in history if you measure it based on having two guys who both cross a high threshold. Otherwise, you have to consider things like 1981 Phillies Mike Schmidt/Pete Rose (OPS+ of 198/118) where one guy in the pair really carried it. But we're also really talking about them being possibly the best power hitting pair of corner infielders too. Otherwise guys like 1987 Boston Wade Boggs/Dwight Evans (Evans was their primary 1B that year...barely) who turned in 174/154 OPS+ that season, but are DQ'd by the HR requirement. That's what pushes Hrbek/Gaetti out of the mix too: their best "combo" season was 1988 Hrbek had an OPS+ of 150 while Gaetti clocked in at 148, but neither cleared 30 HRs. (that was easily Gaetti's best offensive season in MN, and his next best wasn't one of Hrbek's best) They have the talent. Let's hope they have the health this year to do it. Should be a lot of fun to watch!

Yeah, I don't know he needs to change his approach. If he can stay anywhere near league average slugging while getting on base nearly 37-40% of the time, he's going to be a wonderful player. I love having a guy who has the high average-high on base % combo, and as long as he doesn't fall through the floor on power and start posting slugging that's consistently under .400 he's going to be a wonderful asset. Players who get more walks than Ks are really valuable, and I'd love Arraez to be one of those guys for the next 5 years. (Pedroia did it 4 times and came close a couple more) Home runs are wonderful, but this team doesn't have a shortage on power. I think it's really good to have a few table setters sprinkled in among the big boppers, especially ones who can collect hits like Arraez.

Hackimer feels like he's got the million-dollar arm/five-cent head thing going on, though. He's got to make sure he's got all the other stuff settled. The talent is there, but he hasn't shown he's a guy that can be counted on yet.

I'm not sure I like Adrianza more defensively at 1B. For a first baseman, he's a fine shortstop... But I do think the Wiel question is an interesting one. He's not seen as a top prospect by any means, but he's almost certainly going to be a more consistent defensive player than Rooker (who basically hasn't played 1B for the Twins yet) and he had a fine season at the plate last year in his first repeat at AAA. If he shows better plate discipline and gets off to a fast start, he could play his way on the team if/when injury strikes. But he's not on the 40-man (neither is Rooker), which makes me think they'd be more likely to bring up Gordon or Cave/Wade and let a combo platter or Marwin, Adrianza, and Garver handle 1B

Ryu has the best numbers, but the highest risk of injury. Wheeler has the best upside and projectable future, but it's still a projection (and he's had injuries too) Bumgarner has the track record & big game performance, with likely age-related dropoff pending. Maeda probably has the best balance between performance and risk? In terms of upside, I'd rank them like this: 1. Ryu, 2. Wheeler, 3. Maeda, 4. Bumgarner In terms of risk, I'd rank them: 1. Maeda, 2. Wheeler, 3. Bumgarner, 4. Ryu

Our depth at 1B is a bit odd: Sano is clearly the starter and expected to take most of the time there, but we don't really have an identified backup and clear depth if he misses extended time (which Sano has, unfortunately). Marwin fields the position well, but his bat is pedestrian there. Garver deserves some time there, but having his bat at catcher is such a huge advantage that spending significant time at 1B isn't where you want to go. Adrianza can play pretty much anywhere, but he's not a 1B. The minors is interesting too: Rooker can probably play it, but hasn't gotten much time at it so might be the Butcher of Cairo over there. (Adam Dunn sure was, and there's a lot of similarity in those guys' profiles) Kirilloff is starting to get some run there, but we don't know when he'll be ready, though I suspect it's soon. be interested to see what his D really looks like? Right now, might we actually pull up Zander Wiel if Sano gets unlucky and misses significant time? Plenty of guys who *can* play 1B...outside of Sano there's not as much depth for guys who are clearly targeted to 1B. i think Sano is going to do well there this year. He won't amaze with the D, and there will probably be a blooper or three that will make people think he's worse than he is, but i think overall he'll be solid on D and elite on offense. The only thing keeping him from 40 HRs this year is whether he's healthy enough to play 130+ games. I'd love for him to keep the Ks under 200 for the season, but I'll live with it if he's got the OPS+ of 130-140...

I'd vote Blankenhorn. His path to the majors right now isn't an easy one, and the more positional flexibility he has the better off he'll be. If I'm Blankenhorn I start going to the Josh Donaldson 3B School and make damn sure I have perfect attendance and take lots of notes. If Blankenhorn can become a legit option at 2B/3B/corner OF he's going to improve his chances of advancing in this or any organization significantly. Marwin is almost certainly gone after this season and Blankenhorn could line himself up to be the next super-utility guy. Positional flexibility is still really valuable, even with the 26th man. Oh, and if ol' Travis wants to learn how to keep the Ks in check while adding some walks and upping the power line a bit, that'd be just fine too. I hear Donaldson knows a few things about that stuff.

It's a sign of how deep this team is and how well our development has gone that the only significant concern at catcher we have this year is "What if Mitch Garver gets really hurt?" 3/4 of the teams in baseball would kill for our situation. We have an elite starting catcher, a veteran backup who compliments our starter almost perfectly, a super utility player who can serve as the 3rd catcher on the roster, and 2 solid catching prospects in AA either of whom are possible contenders for the backup job in 2021. About the only way this gets better is if a) Garver already had another elite hitting season under his belt so people are less worried about regression, either Rortvedt or Jeffers was already in AAA, and c) we had a hot catching prospect in Cedar Rapids as the next one in the pipeline. These are all luxury items in a league where so many teams get very little production from the catcher position.

Some of this isn't really new: people have been talking about not swinging at bad pitches forever, and the idea of crushing the pitch you want is pretty old school too. the difference is we're tracking and quantifying all of it now. Instead of having a feeling about whether a guy is going after too many sliders in the dirt, we have the numbers. Where process over results really helps is with things like exit velocity and barrel rate, two metrics that if you're killing it in there but not getting hits/home runs/extra base hits etc we can tell someone to not screw with their approach and know that the hits are almost certainly going to come. It's a long season and sometimes guys are going to be unlucky. I think the Twins are being smart in their integration of advanced statistics and new technologies, because they seem to be measured in it. They're not demanding that all players follow the same regimen or track 14 different stat profiles. Guys who want more, get more. Coaches (with the analytics team) are the ones who are getting the burden of interpreting & translating the statistical analysis for the players so that it can translate to positive action, not analysis paralysis. It's nice to move into the modern world. I'm always a little baffled by the anti-stats crowd. baseball has always been the most statistically driven major sport. The only thing that's changed is what numbers are looked at and how much importance they have. For example, think about the classic "Triple Crown" stats: Batting Average, Home Runs, and RBIs. Batting Average is still an important stat! It's not valued as highly right now across baseball, but being able to hit for a high average is still a great skill (thank you, Luis Arraez) to have. (and probably an underrated one right now) Home Runs are still the straw that stirs the drink in baseball. More guys are hitting them, but the guys who hit the most are still the guys who get the biggest bucks (for position players). RBIs are still an interesting stat, it's just that we now know they're not a great determinative stat about the player who collects them. If a guy collects 150 RBIs you still know they had a heck of a season and now we know that it can tell you things about how good the lineup in front of that player was. There's still value in being able to look at one stat and immediately knowing those things.

I'm still on the Royce Lewis train. the tools are all there, and I love that his speed plays as a baserunner; I'm of the opinion that stolen bases are undervalued in MLB with this focus on station-to-station baseball and home run output. Players who can put pressure on defense with their speed and baserunning have under-valued utility. the swing is a bit of a concern, but he certainly didn't have any problems with it in the AFL. Let's see how he does with a full year in AA and a little tinkering. A maturing body and plenty of ABs against high value pitchers could be exactly what he needs. I think the future is really high on him either as a SS or a CF. Anyone who wants him in a deal is going to have to give up a top of the rotation starter under contract/control for more than 1 year. I can live with trading him if the deal is there to really go for the title; I can't live with getting a mid-rotation starter and an A-ball lottery ticket.

They also may be looking at his AA season as more indicative of his ability and not caring (or knowing) that he was fighting through a lingering wrist injury. I'm a big fan of Kirilloff. I hope he gets plenty of time in the OF and not just at 1B, because he would be a great replacement for Rosario if needed and Sano is going to be locked in at 1B for the next few years. But If he can be solid at both a corner OF spot and 1B...the job sharing between a few spots gets easier to fit everyone in when Cruz retires. I love his hit tool. I think he's a guy who can hit for high average along with plenty of power and it's going to be fun to watch him roll.

I think Balazovic was left off because he was less of a comp to Graterol. There's been basically no discussion about Balazovic ending up in the bullpen, there's no injury concerns there to date, there's no real pitch mix concerns that could push him to the bullpen, and he's not an 100mph fastball guy. (like Colina and Duran). It's not about whether he's in the same class, talent-wise, just that the pitching profile doesn't line up as well as the other three. Having Duran, Colina, and Alcala definitely makes it easier to trade Graterol. That depth is nice, and it's never bad to keep pitchers like that coming through the pipeline.

CF is one of the bigger areas of concern; as much as I like Max Kepler we're much better off with him crushing it in one of the corners. I'm guessing this is one of the reasons they put Celestino on the 40 man this year to ensure they had a plus defender in CF in the pipeline. Kepler is fine in CF, but moving him means shuffling multiple positions which is never great. We don't have a true backup defensively right now. Cave & Wade are just overstretched there. Catcher is a little bit of a concern, but that's an issue on every team: if they lose their primary catcher, they're almost certainly going to be thin/stretching a guy/hoping someone from the minors can step up before they're "ready". Frankly, the Twins are better off than most with Avila having been a quality starter before, Astudillo being functional back there and Rortvedt & Jeffers getting close. SS is probably the 2nd area of depth concern not because they don't have guys who can play there but because they don't have a true plus defender there who is ready to step in at need. Adrianza is solid enough, but stretched as a starter. Arraez is not a SS. Nick Gordon can play there, but is more valuable for his bat. It's like the CF question all over again. If Polanco goes down for an extended period, it's going to hurt. Of course, losing an all-star for an extended period hurts regardless of depth! Overall, the Twins depth is in really good shape right now. The MLB roster has quality and positional flexibility and there are multiple players in AAA or even in AA that look ready to contribute now or soon.

Larnach is definitely proof that you should draft talent over need in baseball. Being long in OFs is just fine, and you can always trade prospects to address need later. So get the best guy you can. Larnach looks terrific: high floor with a nice ceiling, projects to be an above average corner OF with all-star potential, depending on how his D holds up and his power progresses. The power progression is going to be interesting. He's got solid pop now but he's more a doubles guy right now than a big masher. I just hope that plussing up the home run stroke doesn't lead to bushels of additional Ks. If he can add another 50 pts of SLG% while keeping that k rate where it is, he's going to be a complete hitter. As much as I recognize the importance of hitting home runs and power production, I think hitting for average is getting to be an under-valued skill and it's really nice to have a few .300 hitters sprinkled all over the lineup. Very nice player. Good development path. Really puts the Twins in a good position if an OF gets hurt, gets too expensive, or they have an opportunity to add a really high impact player to try and win the title.

Cave might be better value than Rosario because the D is better the hitting is close and the cost is much lower, but Rosario is still the better player for now. I'm be more positive on a Cave breakout if he could hold up in CF. But for all that Cave is showing he's a better defensive player right now than Rosario...he hasn't been good. It's also problematic to take rate stats and project them across a season to compare someone to a guy who actually played a full year. Players are more likely to get exposed if they're overstretched in a full season of ABs. Guys are more likely to have slumps that are driven by nagging injuries but the team needs them to be in the lineup anyways and play through it. We've never seen Cave do that in MLB; we have seen that from Rosario. Cave is a useful piece, and he would have made trading Rosario less painful, but it's unclear that he's actually good enough to take the job. If he's going to be a corner guy, he need to be more consistent on D or improve the power numbers to be more than just a decent player. Because it doesn't seem like the Twins have much confidence on his ability to play CF.

May is the biggest name here to me and the toughest one to know what his market is. He was excellent last year, good but dinged up the year before. The talent is there, but it's hard to be sure on his health. But he'd be a great set-up man to keep around...would he do 3/$12M? Hard to go longer on a reliever. Odorizzi is a guy that will draw a lot of interest if he has another year like this, but I suspect someone might throw 4/$80M at him, if not more (5/$100M?). That gets harder, which is why i'm glad we added Maeda. Marwin is gone after this year. He's a useful player, but his utility is declining as he ages and is less capable of playing SS/2B/3B and his hit tool doesn't make him a plus guy in the OF, especially if his D slips more. We signed him to the right contract initially and will likely allow him to move on quietly. Hill/Bailey were intentionally signed to 1-year deals. Hill may be cooked regardless, but at best he's a guy that you go year to year on. bailey is younger, but unless he has a heck of a renaissance, I don't see him in the Twins plans, and even if he does have that big comeback year...the risk is pretty high it might be a fluke year. Not a lot of downside in moving on. Again Maeda mitigates the risk here.