jmlease1

Tapani was great. Feels like people have already kinda forgotten about him and he had a great 1991 season. Best ERA, ERA+, FIP, WHIP of anyone in the rotation, made 34 starts (only 1 less than the "workhorse" Jack Morris), threw 244 innings (only 2 2/3 less than Morris, who got that extra start)...Tap was fantastic. He got touched up a little in the postseason, but his Game Two of the WS was fantastic. I saw that one again on replace this year before the baseball restart and FSN was running Twins classics and it was a masterful performance. Biggest shame for Tapani was he didn't make the majors until he was 25 and get his first full season when he was 26. I don't understand his minor league career at all, but getting Tap as part of the Viola trade was a shrewd move by the Twins.

That would be the smart thing to do. But considering the original hire was Jerry-driven and cut out the senior management...what are the odds the owner is going to step up here and take the hit? Especially since he considers having fired LaRussa back in the 80s to be the worst mistake he ever made? Hiring LaRussa was always a bad idea, for a variety of reasons. It's only gotten worse with the DUI. But with Alex Cora and AJ Hinch already getting hired back in, it seems the consensus in MLB is that they don't care about problematic managerial hires.

I think the only way someone like Hand is on the table is if the Twins cut Rogers loose into the pool. I'm also refusing to get on the "we need a proven closer" bit: closer is and almost always has been highly overrated. I want good relievers who can be firemen. I want guys who don't need to be in highly structured roles to be effective. And I definitely don't want to pay a ton of money to guy who can only be used in the 9th inning with a clean sheet. There's quite a few good relievers out there, but I would bring back Clippard and May unless someone tosses stupid money that them. And in this environment...who is making that play?

I think you've got better odds of seeing Rooker at 1B than Kirilloff in the next few years. Kirilloff is solid in the corners so I would expect him to stick there. I'm a huge fan of Kirilloff: he's got enough power production for the modern corner OF but he pairs it with tremendous bat control and good understanding of the strike zone. He's going to get a ton of hits and hit for a high average with enough walks to make the OBP look good. The hit tool is really great and he's going to be a guy you really want at the plate with runners in scoring position. He's not going to be chasing and swinging at tons of pitches outside of the zone and is willing to take a walk, but will most definitely swing the bat. He might not replace Rosario's power right away, but I don't think he'll be far off, and he will hit better overall. He won't replace Rosario's arm, but will likely be more consistent in the OF in catching the ball from recent vintages. I don't think the Twins play service time games with him because a) he's ready to go, and they will have a need. The only question mark about Kirilloff is the fact that he didn't play at AAA...and that's because there was no AAA last season.

Balazovic is the obvious call. Rortvedt is a guy I think who could get claimed. His catching is advanced enough that a team could carry him as a catcher even if he might not hit much. I'd add him. Miranda is probably the next one to me? If a team has cleared a bunch of guys, might be in tanking mode...maybe they take a flyer there. It kinda feels like the Rule 5 draft is gonna be a mess this year. How the hell do you project all these guys who didn't play?

I discount any production from Escobar after signing his FA contract: you simply can't say that the Twins would have gotten any of that. Maybe AZ signs him. Maybe another team signs him. Maybe to keep him the Twins have to add 2-3M per year. It's too speculative. They had half a season left of control and flipped him for a guy who projects to be a top half of the rotation starter. That's really good value. De La Trinidad looks like minor league depth at this point, but Maciel might be something more. But I agree: really hard to evaluate minor league guys who didn't get to play. Duran is the real piece for the Twins, and he's looking on track to pitch for the team in 2021 or 2022. The fastball splitter combo is an effective one and if his curve can be a solid third offering then he's got a pitch mix that can allow him to be an excellent starter. The stuff is there, the build looks right to stay healthy and strong. He keeps the ball in the park and the walks aren't too bad, so if he can keep this level of control at the MLB level he'll be fine. He definitely has the stuff to finish off hitters. I like this trade for the Twins.

It's not unusual to make the waiver claims. The question is whether these guys stick. Most of the time the move is going to be marginal, shoring up an area where you don't have a lot of depth in the upper minors or taking a flyer on someone you think you might be able to uncover. The last 3-4 spots on the 40-man are pretty fungible. I have no problem with the Twins making a grab on guys right now to see what they might be able to do. This isn't going to significantly impact free agency; this is covering every option to make sure that your floor is handled. Not sure either guy does much for me: Gibaut has some talent, but I think control is a tough one to fix. If they can, well, he has the stuff to compete. Waddell might be a bullpen option and will be easy to move on from if whatever they see in him turns out to not work out. Marginal moves, but I approve of the idea of constantly trying to make marginal improvements on the back end of the roster as part of your total strategy.

Stroman is interesting...I wonder if he's a 1-year guy looking to rehab his value before gunning for a big contract in a more normal environment? If so, he could be a good fit for the Twins who would likely be comfortable with a 1 year deal, and Stroman might be interested in working with Wes Johnson. Gausman is the guy I think I want; I was interested in him going into last season and getting him out of Balto almost immediately improved his standing. I'd love for him to get the proper coaching and support from the Twins over a couple of seasons...but I really don't know what kind of a deal he's looking for. But I would really look hard there. I'm a big no on Bauer, who I think is a bad fit in the clubhouse and unlikely to match last year. I think someone is going to throw a lot of years at him too, and regardless of what he might be saying I think he'll take it. Also a no is Ray, who looks like a mess. Fixing a player's control is a bigger challenge and Ray has never been strong in that area. age 26-28 seasons should be right in his prime...and he got progressively worse in those years: he may have peaked at 25. You can write off last year to COVID, but he wasn't great in 2019 and was only a little better (if less healthy) in 2018. So there's huge risk there and I'm not sure how much upside is there, despite the great K rates. The peripherals are only great in one area and there's plenty of red flags on this guy. He's literally had one really good/great season: outside of that, he's a 4th/5th starter. There's so much that needs fixing there that I don't think he's a great option. And with that trash control, he's not even a guy that you'd be all that excited about shifting to the bullpen if he falls apart as a starter. Surprised not to see Kluber on this list. He's an interesting rehab guy. If he gets healthy, he could be a huge upside play and that move has worked out ok for the Twins before.

Hinch at least got punished, not one of the players involved got so much as a fine. Was it enough of a penalty? Debatable. My instinct is no, but Hinch also at least expressed remorse for the whole thing and frankly it sounded like he tried to put a stop to it and was overruled by the deeply shady front office. I think it's a fair question to ask, and I think he should get a lot of questions. Let's see how he faces the fire. The LaRussa move is idiotic. I don't think he's going to do well in that clubhouse at all, I think their tactics just got worse, and they damn well better watch for cheating.

Rehab Kluber at a cheap price? Do an incentive-based low-risk contract to see if he has anything left or if the injuries have functionally ended his career. Oliver Perez doesn't do much for me; would rather bring back Clippard. Are we thinking that Clippard is going to suddenly be too expensive? Dude is 35, I just don't see teams throwing a multi-year deal at him.

Romo was fine for us, but this isn't that hard of a call. 1) you can probably resign him for less if you still want him, 2) there are better options available both in FA and internally for the roster spot. He did his job, overall, and was a solid acquisition, but moving on is the right decision. I'm more interested in bringing back Clippard and May. In a normal year, May is probably looking at a 3 year deal with someone who needs a closer option and might throw $20M at him. This year? not sure he gets more than 2 years. Clippard is another guy who probably struggles to get a multi-year deal in this environment; his age is going to work against him. Seeing Kluber's name on this list is really something. When pitchers fall, they can fall really fast. from 2014-2018 he was as good as any pitcher in baseball and now? He might be cooked. Do you kick the tires on him as a comeback player?

I agree with the outcome on the balloting, but would like to just make a few comments on the mostly ignored Jorge Alcala, who got votes on 21 out of 23 ballots, including some first place votes (and zero love from Nick Nelson). Called up mid-season and with essentially no MLB experience outside of a cup of coffee in 2019, Jorge Alcala was arguably the Twins 4th or 5th best reliever in 2020. He brought some seriously velocity into the bullpen with a fastball that touched triple-digits and a slider that cooks along faster than some of our pitcher's fastballs. he settled in quickly and had some dominant performances (and a few hiccups). He showed he was a guy who could pitch in higher leverage situations but also give you 2 good innings in the middle of the game. He's definitely going to be slotted into the bullpen next season from Day 1 and makes the possible loss of Trevor May much easier to sustain. 3rd place is probably right for him, since he only threw 24 innings, but he looks like a weapon out there and he's going to get a lot of Ks both with that fastball that he can elevate and a slider that is going to force a lot of hitters to guess at sooner than they're ready to make a swing. Jeffers is my pick for Twins Rookie of the Year; he played great and we needed him to step up. His development has been terrific to follow (and I say this as a guy who was on the Rortvedt train) and his ability to adapt to MLB quickly and thrive is especially important since there was no minor-league ball this year. Jeffers still got to develop and play against serious competition and I think it can only help him for next year. Dobnak started out strong and held the rotation together with Maeda while other guys worked through injuries or ineffectiveness, but he fell apart late. It will be interesting to see whether that was just a pandemic fluke or if guys just started to figure things out against him, or maybe he had something nagging that in a normal year gets him 15 days on the IL to rest something minor. Who knows? He'll compete for a spot in the back of the rotation next year, and that's great.

I think the most encouraging thing from all three of these guys is they are under contract for next year and there's little reason to believe they won't be competent starters. They're all guys that have a track record of success, & Maeda & Berrios would slot into the top half of the rotation on most teams. It's really nice not have to be thinking about how the hell we're going to get a decent rotation put together. Maybe they won't be able to repeat exactly this performance, but there's a lot of good in all three of these guys.

Here's the problem with dealing any of these pieces: what are you getting in return? If the goal is to improve the offense, then you have a problem, because a) these are important contributors to the offense you have, and the team you're dealing them to is unlikely to be trading you back an upgrade at those positions...so what are you really doing? We might be able to move Polanco/Arraez for an upgrade in the OF...but now we've got a hole in the INF that needs to get filled, and you've possibly blocked one of your top prospects, several of whom look ready to contribute. If you move Kepler, then you really need to be confident that Kirilloff/Rooker/Larnach are ready to hold down an OF slot, might need to pay Rosario for another year (is that the best use of $10M?) or you might drive your offense down below where we were at this year. We've got better odds of being able to deal any of these guys for pitching (maybe not the priority for once, but maybe worth it depending on who/what you get) or prospects (less attractive with a team that has playoff aspirations and guaranteed to anger the fan base). Just not sure the trade market is the right fit for where the Twins are right now. We're probably long on MLB-quality OFs right now...but it seems likely a spot if coming open there anyway. We don't have a ready-made replacement in the middle INF: Lewis is almost certainly still a year away, especially after missing a developmental year, and Gordon hasn't been able to stay healthy the last two years (this year probably not his fault, but COVID wiped out his season to the point we took a flyer on Vargas; if he was anywhere ready to play, Gordon would have gotten the call). With the money that's coming open (Odorizzi, Rosario, & Gonzalez coming off the books frees up $36M from where the payroll was projected for a full season; even accounting for some raises, the Twins have room to maneuver) I think you can add a veteran starter and cover yourself on a utility guy. Some of the trade talk feels like change for change's sake. Not sure that gets us anywhere.

well, there definitely seems to be an increasing preference on this board for players who hit for a higher BA. People here seem to be tired of K's and want more singles. Sano has been coming under fire for this all season (and last season), so now I guess it's Kepler's turn in the barrel. I'm not in favor of moving Kepler, especially because I think it's unlikely that Rosario is back next year. So I'm not excited about the idea of turning over the corner OF spots to two relatively untested players, no matter who they are. I'll feel better if one of those spots is commandeered by a rookie with two veterans next to them. Or do people think that dealing Kepler gets them back a starting RF or LF? (A player like this doesn't go into a challenge deal, IMHO. They'd be mostly likely dealing for pitching, and or prospects. Maybe an upgrade in the INF, but again: not a lot of room to add there without bumping or trading someone else out, so it's complicated.) Kepler's an elite defender in RF who is respectable in CF as needed. His contract is team-friendly. He's got some pop in his bat and an ability to get on base; despite the low BA he's had a better OBP than Rosario the last two seasons and has a higher one overall for their respective careers. (Rosario did have 2 seasons where he did better than Kepler in terms of getting on base in '17 & '18 but hasn't been able to match those since) I don't know which is more likely to be the fluky season, '19 or '20; '19 had the juiced baseball, '20 has the messed up pandemic deal (and more games missed for injury as a % of the season). But regardless, Kepler is a quality starter in MLB at a good price, and you don't toss that away casually. He looks like a player who is all-star quality in a good year and solid starter in a bad year and that makes for a good cornerstone for a franchise that's been winning big the last two seasons. The playoffs haven't gone out way the last two years but a) that's small sample size stuff, and moving on from Kepler isn't likely to improve the odds of playoff success significantly. I'm also amused at the people throwing Rooker's name into this when complaining about K's; have you not followed his career? Don't be fooled by 21 ABs in MLB; he's almost certainly not going to be a .300 hitter. going into the season the ceiling on him was Adam Dunn. I like Rooker and think he can be valuable, but let's not pretend he's not going to strike out a ton if he gets a full season of ABs against MLB pitching.

No no no! Buxton adds huge value defensively in the OF. Even he was very good immediately at 1B (a stretch since he's never played there...ever), he's going to add next to nothing. The risk in him getting injured is the price you have to pay for that elite defense. He's showing skills at the plate, but his plate discipline was awful this year and I just don't know that he can slug like he's Nelson Cruz over a full season, and he's need that level of production to be a plus performer at 1B. He's a CF. If he gets hurt, he gets hurt. But he's a CF.

I'm fine with looking internally for one of these spots and externally for the other. Trying to find a strong-glove SS should be a priority, especially if they could fill in a little at 3B as necessary. Then you can let Blankenhorn & Gordon fight it out for the other spot with the loser waiting in the wings in the minors to step in for an additional injury. Not sure who that SS backup is yet, but I think they'll need to go outside the organization for it. Not sure Adrianza should be run back again; he's ok defensively, not great and if he's not hitting he's just another utility guy.

Because he's also a giant ass and could be a major clubhouse cancer? Because you don't know which Trevor Bauer you're going to get? If you get the 2018 version, wonderful. If you get the 2017 version, not so wonderful. If you get the 2019 version, you're betting you get the CLE version (very good) and hoping you don't get the CIN version (dreadful). Do you want to bet $30M that the small sample size of 2020, when hitting was down all over the place if reflective of who he is as a pitcher at age 30? "But what about Maeda?" you might ask. "Aren't you betting on the same thing?" Answer: no, not really. I don't expect him to be as dominant as he was in pandemic season, because I expect hitting to be back up next year. But I do think he'll be good, and we're not paying him ludicrous money no matter how well he pitches (with incentives, he eventually tops out at like $13M) so the risk is less. Sure, 1 year deal are always relatively low-risk...but dude also has some baggage.

Part of what was concerning about Buxton's injury history previously was it was also coupled with real struggles at the plate for long stretches and you wondered whether he'd stay healthy long enough to get into a groove. I think Buxton will be fine, but should probably be looked at as being a 125-140 game player at most in a normal season (at least until he proves he can do it). And with everything he adds to the game, I can live with that. I don't believe that because a player has some injuries that they can't necessarily stay on the field in the future, though, and he's in his physical prime right now. Donaldson is a bit more concerning; you do have to worry that the calf issue may be a chronic thing for him since it's been recurring and he's an older guy. That said, the pandemic compressed season definitely hurt him and a return to a more normal schedule (whether fans are in the stands or not) will help him I think. It'll be easier to get him regular rest and there will be programmed days off in the calendar. There will be less pressure to push through something. Both players have a concern, but honestly? Neither are a code red, get rid of this, he'll never play enough to be worth it situation, IMHO. If you set the over/under on games for them for next year (assuming a normal schedule) at 220 between the two...I'd bet the over and feel fairly confident about it.

It's not inexplicable: between the goofy pandemic season where they didn't really get a proper spring training, the stats on pitchers facing guys a third time, the fact that you have guys like Rich Hill on the staff who is a 4-5 inning pitcher now...it really wasn't all that inexplicable. And the bullpen wasn't bad: Duffey, Clippard, Wisler, and even Thielbar were great. May, Romo, & Rogers were good overall...it's just that Rogers was weirdly hittable and he and Romo had some bad late shots. Literally, the only guy who was actually bad was Littell and he only got 6 innings (and after his previous season you had to give him a little rope to see if he could repeat it, right?) The pitching wasn't a problem this year, at all. They had the 4th best ERA+ in baseball this year. They had the 4th best WHIP. If you don't like the advanced stats, they had the 4th best ERA too. The pitching was really effective all season and they used a similar strategy in the playoffs. And the failure in the playoffs was still more about offense. They considered geniuses because Falvey has a track record of developing pitching, and since coming to MN they've made a lot of very smart bets and quality moves. They had a really effective off-season last year, making a lot of smart plays: 1. Traded for Maeda. Yes, they gave up a quality arm, but they traded a bullpen guy for a starter who is going to likely finish 2nd in the AL Cy. That's a great move. 2. Signed Donaldson, which improved the team defense and added a star quality player when they couldn't sign the starting pitcher they wanted. That's a great pivot, even if Donaldson had injuries during this sprint of a year. I'm still high on the move 3. Didn't give Bumgarner a desperation extra year to try and grab a starter. No panic, just pivot to a good plan B 4. Signed Wisler, who was brilliant and cost them nothing. 5. Made sure the team had depth, both in starting pitching and on the field. (They always had options to go to; the only desperation play was when they took a flyer on Vargas, and that was because Nick Gordon had COVID. Are we really going to fault them for not setting up a 4th string 2B?) Not everything worked out, but mostly on offense, and offense was down all over the place. Hitters had more trouble than anyone else in pandemic world.

I'd like to bring May back, but someone might offer him too much (either year, money or both). But I like him as a power arm, so they should make the effort and if they can get him on a deal of 3 years they should try and make the dollars work. You let Romo go. He's a great guy and everything, but it's time to move on. Clippard would be nice to bring back, but I don't think you make a multi-year on him. They need a reliable second lefty arm, but for most of the slots they can look to fill internally. Alcala looks ready to be a serious factor in the back end. Cruz: yes, if he'll do another 1+1 kind of deal and the money doesn't surge too high. But if he's getting offers over $15M and for 2-3 years guaranteed...then you probably have to move on. They do have hitters ready to step up and having the DH slot available to move guys into from the field wouldn't be bad either to get Rooker/Larnach/Kirilloff regular time either. Rotation is an interesting one; the good thing is the top three slots are locked in nicely, which hasn't always been the case. I think Dobnak fits fine as a 4th/5th option and you can let other guys in the system compete with him. They will need to either bring in one guy or look to re-sign Odorizzi. It will be really interesting to see what his market looks like; he might be willing to do a 1 year back with a team that he likes and has had success with in order to get huis value back up after an injury riddled year. I don't think he's getting the 4-5 deal he was hoping for; at this point I dunno if anyone will give him more than 3 and the money might not be anywhere what he thinks he's worth. I'd give him a hard look and if you can't make the money/years work you look for another option on the FA market. I don't think Hill should be an option; he's pretty much cooked as a starter. Utility...I like the idea of Blankenhorn getting a shot at Gonzalez's old role. The bigger issue is finding a backup at SS that can really pick it. Maybe that's Adrianza, but if he's not gonna hit at all, maybe you look for a better all-glove option? Nick Gordon can backup 2B nicely, might be stretched at SS. LF isn't too complicated: Rosario gets non-tendered ($10M is going to more more than the team is willing to pay for a poor overall defender who is a good but not great hitter) and Kirilloff gets his shot to take the job. Cave/Wade is a fine option to have as insurance, and Larnach is probably ready to push for it. I like Eddie, but moving on to Kirilloff is something I'm ready to do...and I think the Twins are too. I think a real question is catcher: Jeffers looks ready, we don't know if Garver will bounce back...and we don't know if the two of them will work splitting time, either. Is La Tortuga an option to spend some time there? Do they need a platoon split guy like Avila again?

1. I think yes, but maybe not right away and maybe not full stands. I think it's possible that a real and properly tested vaccine may be available and in distribution by March, which is the only way large-crowd events will be able to be handled safely, particularly as we continue to deal with flare-ups on the pandemic. If it's been distributed widely enough and shows enough effectiveness...I think fans will be able to watch live again. In some fashion. 2. I'd look to bring him back, on similar terms to the original: 1 year or 1 + a team option. Otherwise...you let him go. (You probably let him go if someone offers him $20M too) 3. Biggest need might be for a high BA hitter to add to the lineup. It's not a monumental need, but with the power swingers and high K guys, they might need to sprinkle in another guy who hits for average as part of their good OB%. I'm not interested in a guy who hits an empty .300 and never walks and is nothing but a singles hitter...but frankly even a late-period Joe Mauer hitter would be good for the lineup. Maybe Kirilloff is that guy (with much more power)? 4. Unless you think Varela has lost the room, you might as well bring him back. It's really hard to know much about his specific performance in this weird sprint of a season. I think hitting coaches have more impact over time. 5. It's definitely more of a reload with a little retool over a rebuild. The rotation is solid for next season, there's a bunch of good arms in the bullpen, the lineup should be very good to great, even in the face of what happened here. Overreaction to small sample sizes and weird, impossible seasons is the sort of thing franchises with massive revenue streams can do and buy their way out of any mistakes they make by making decisions made based on emotion...it's not a path to sustained success for the Twins. Who have been very successful the last two seasons. It's been a lot of wins and a team that's been very fun to watch. The "blow it up, fire everyone" crowd should probably go take a nap.

Hill is pitching decently right now, but I don't think there's much doubt that Maeda, Berrios and Pineda are the three best Twins starters right now and have the best chance for giving the team 6-7 quality innings. Hill is probably maxed out more like 4-5. Hopefully Berrios and Donaldson can go for Game 1 and be themselves; that is definitely the other big thing (beyond Maeda) that could be different from last year: the team being relatively healthy.

One more thing on this topic generally: this FO has done a really good job of raising the floor on the team. While you do need to have top-end talent and performers in order to win a title, one of the best and cheapest things you can do to improve your team is to stop giving AB and innings to bad players. Making sure that you have depth to replace your best players when they need rest or go down with an injury with at least adequate players, or guys that you can slide into platoon kinds of roles and not get them exposed is really important. And that's something this FO has really worked on. That's why you sign an Alex Avila: he's a great platoon fit for someone like Garver (or even Jeffers). It's not a move that moves the needle in an obvious way, it's not flashy...but it gives you depth and options. It's why the Marwin move was so good: he wasn't signed to start, but to be the super-utility guy who can plug in and fix any problem you're having at like 4-5 spots on the field. That depth is showing in the rotation this year: we haven't had to hope and pray that Lewis Thorpe or Smeltzer or Littell could figure it out in the rotation and hold things down despite having injuries to starters; instead it's been a spot start not handing them the job. Homer Bailey wasn't bad...and got designated for assignment. But he was an insurance policy. It's a big change to have legit options battling for a 5th spot in the rotation, instead of needing an unproven guy to step up and fill the 3rd spot. Raising the floor has been something this FO has done very well, and it's something that will continue to pay dividends down the line if/when young players become stars.

This doesn't even talk about the smart extensions for key performers like Polanco, Kepler, and Sano. This FO has put the Twins in a position to win not just this year but to be a consistent winner. Hopefully they'll be able to get deals done with Berrios and Buxton to lock in a strong core for the next several years...and I'm not going to bet against this group. They're handling team business with foresight and professionalism, and I really don't think there's much question that they're the best front office in Minnesota professional sports right now. (Wolves are on the rise, but the results haven't shown yet. Vikings have done a lot of things well over the past several years, but overall haven't managed the QB spot well and are now paying for it. Wild are in a transitional mode, too soon to tell)