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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Some of this depends on how you categorize breakout? Are we looking for guys that were mediocre to bad who we think might become legitimately good, or someone who was good becoming great? One of the things that made Miranda's year so amazing was he hadn't done a lot before that. He was decent, but nothing amazing in A-ball, and only had one game in AA before this season's explosion. Steer hasn't really had any significant struggles to date; there's been a bit of a drop-off after he's gotten the mid-year promotion, but overall he's been pretty good in both of his professional years playing for the Twins. I don't see him as that much of a breakout candidate in that while I think he's going to hit well at AA (and probably get a promotion to AAA midseason) I don't see him as being a guy who is going to take a sudden and big leap forward. Sabato is a better "fit", since he kinda stunk in low A (a 22 year old college player should not be hitting below the Mendoza line in low A, even if it's the FSL, even if he didn't play competitive ball for a year, no matter how many walks he was taking) but showed something in his move to high A that suggested maybe he could make contact with the ball for something other than the occasional dinger. he's a guy that could put it all together next year and restore his prospect status after deservedly getting knocked down the list. Sabato has huge power and a good eye, but I'll be watching to see how much contact he makes. Cavaco is a guy I think could have that "a-ha!" moment next year where his tools catch up to the game. As a super young player, missing a year of development time in 2020 probably really hurt him and being 20 in the FSL isn't easy either. He's a guy I think could be that breakout candidate in 2022.
  2. jmlease1
    It's not unusual for a college player to have a longer swing coming into the minors; the same way that you can get away with stuff in A-ball that you can't in AAA or MLB, there's stuff you can get away with in college you can't in the pros. sometimes I guy can quicken it up and shorten things without sacrificing power and they may have seen that possibility with Sabato. I think we'll no a lot more about whether he's a real prospect or not next season. Lot of guys that really needed to make adjustments in the minors after a year of not seeing competition. Was Sabato one of those? Maybe, maybe not, but the excuse will be gone next year. Wallner has been better to date. The AFL time to date seems to confirm what we saw on him during the year: good eye at the plate, excellent power, loads of Ks. He's going to have to either: cut down on the Ks or take even more walks (preferably both of course) to push his way up the ladder, but there's potential there. AA should tell us a lot about him. If more refined pitchers keep the Ks high, lower the walks, and prevent him from barreling up on the ball...then he's gonna wash out. If he can keep mashing and improve the amount of contact he makes, then he's got a real chance.
  3. jmlease1
    It's a really interesting exercise, and not impossible. I'd hate to lose Buxton; would much rather deal Kepler for a lesser return and re-sign Buxton but I understand that part of this is about being radical. If we were making these kinds of drastic moves, I'd much rather go after Trevor Story than Baez at SS, especially since I'm not convinced Story would cost substantially more? I have no feel for how much Kluber has left; that's one of the more questionable ideas here, but the risk is relatively minimal on a 1 year deal. I'm unenthusiastic about Canaha. while I agree under this construct that the Twins need some veteran reinforcements in the lineup...I can't say I'm excited about spending 3 years on Canaha. (If we lock down SS on a multi-year deal, we still might need a place for Austin Martin, who could slot in LF in a year quite well, and we have other hitters in the pipeline.) I might be more interested in looking for someone cheaper on a 1-2 year deal here, especially if the extra $ ensure we land Story.
  4. jmlease1
    I'm saying it's easier to score runs with power and home runs are the ultimate expression of that. Of course you can construct a great offense comprised of guys performing like Gurriel...but he was the freakin' batting champ in the AL. Does Sano kill more rallies that Guriel? Sure, because Sano had an OPS+ of 113 and Gurriel had one of 131, not because Sano strikes out. (BTW, somehow Gurriel actually grounded into more double plays than Sano last year). I don't really understand the argument you're making. Is it that Gurriel was better than Sano last year? Agreed. Pretty sure no one is going to disagree with you on that one. Is it that Gurriel will be better at the plate than Sano next year? Possibly, probably even likely, but it's important to remember that Sano was actually better at the plate in 2020 and 2019 and is 9 years younger. Is it that the Twins should add more players like Gurriel to the roster and fewer players like Sano? If we get the 2021 version...sure, if you can find him. But if it's that Sano isn't a productive hitter, then...no. I agree that it's all about productivity, but high average hitters like Luis Arraez aren't necessarily more productive than a player like Sano, because slugging matters too. all of those extra-base hits add up and matter just as much on the positive side of the ledger as the Ks are on the negative side. I'm not going to pretend that Sano is an ideal player; his slumps can be brutal and make him borderline unplayable. But his power is fantastic, he'll work a walk, and can be a productive hitter in the middle of a lineup. Strikeouts aren't worse than any other out, except maybe aesthetically.
  5. jmlease1
    Laweryson is taking advantage of his opportunity. He'll be interesting to track in the upcoming minor league season to see if he keeps performing at this level and becomes a real prospect to watch. Wallner is justifying his prospect status. He does a lot of damage when he connects; the only real question with him is will he connect enough as he rises in the ranks to be an effective hitter in the majors. The power plays, but as we've seen with Rooker, if you don't get the bat on the bat enough it might not matter. So far the rest of the guys are not impressing, which is too bad. But part of why the Twins sent these guys down to the AFL was to sort this stuff out.
  6. jmlease1
    I suspect the fact that Kepler only played 97 games in RF and 121 overall may have hurt him?
  7. jmlease1
    I'm not interested in paying a premium on a "closer". I'd like to see them add a veteran RH arm for the bullpen, but assuming Rogers is back, we've got a guy with experience finishing games and several internal options look to have the ability to pitch the 9th as well. These are some interesting internal options to reinforce the bullpen if/when they need some other arms. Cano is interesting to me in particular, and he might get a chance to compete for a spot in spring training.
  8. jmlease1
    Gurriel won the batting title. He hit .319, not .275. (Of course, I always find it "interesting" when an Astros player has a career-best season at age 37 these days, but that's a different story.) Yes, you can out produce Sano while hitting half the homers, but you have to do more than hit .275 and we're not exactly swimming in guys who hit .300 these days. If you're saying we should trade Sano out for a guy who won the batting title...sure, that'd be great. But it's also not going to happen, so what are we talking about here? You seem to be arguing that the Twins need to stop putting sluggers in the lineup and get more guys that hit singles, and play small-ball. In order to actually score more runs than last year (where the Twins were pretty mid-pack, 7th in the AL) you'd need to get major jumps in BA all over the field, which simply isn't realistic. Keep in mind that the Astros & Blue Jays didn't just finish 1-2 in BA, they also finished 1-3 in OBP, and 3-1 in SLG, which is how they finished 1-2 in runs. If we can upgrade 1B to a guy like Gurriel, that's great...but he ain't available. Turning over 3B to Arraez isn't going to improve the offense (Donaldson was about as productive on offense as Gurriel last season).
  9. jmlease1
    I'm 100% down with a rotational DH for 2022. Nelson Cruz was great and I loved having the Boomstick, but now is the right time to roll on past that. And I don't think slotting one guy in there isn't what's best for this roster. I expect Sano, Donaldson (assuming he's on the roster), Garver, and Arraez to get the majority of the ABs there (not necessarily in that order). I think that makes sense: it gives Kirilloff and Garver some opportunities at 1B, Miranda time at 3B, and room to get Arraez's bat in the lineup without needing to put him and his shaky D and bad knees in the field. We have the bats to fill this in nicely while putting that money into pitching.
  10. jmlease1
    Vallimont is going to be a tough decision. If I've got a bad team I would grab him in the Rule 5 because his stuff plays right now and I can stash him in the bullpen for the season to see what he's got and keep working on his command. But is he worth a 40-man spot for the Twins when he isn't ready to participate at all for them?
  11. jmlease1
    Batting average matters, but trading homers for singles ends up being a losing strategy. The math matters here: Cut Sano's HRs in half and get him to that .275 BA requires trading 15 HRs and replacing them with 40 singles. That gets you to a slash line of .276/.355/.391. Is it worth trading 76 points of SLG% for 43 points of OBP? It might be more pleasing to watch, but it's going to take a lot of luck to generate more runs for the team. Slugging is really important in producing runs. You're denigrating solo home runs, but that's a guaranteed run, whereas you need multiple batters to be successful at the same time to generate a single run via singles. There's more opportunities for failure. If Sano is hitting too many solo shots, it's because not enough guys are getting on base in front of him. Essentially, you're suggesting we get rid of Sano and replace him with the offensive equivalent of 2021 Luis Arraez at 1B. I don't think that moves the needle in a positive direction.
  12. jmlease1
    Well, let's make sure we're being accurate here. Let's look at the OPS: Mar/Apr .555 May .737 June .787 July .829 Aug .820 Sept/Oct .825 Sano was awful in Mar/April, not all that great in May, but closer to passable, acceptable in June (YMMV), and then good in Jul, Aug, Sept/Oct. He didn't just have a couple of hot months late in the season; Sano had his game together at the plate in July and had already started to round the corner back in June. His first half and second half splits are instructive: .705 OPS in the first half after an almost unfathomly bad start to the season vs .847 in the second half. If Sano can get off to a reasonable start instead of a god-awful one, Kirilloff and Garver will make fine backups while Sano gets some days off at DH and the production should be ok at 1B. Basically this comes down to who you think Sano is more likely to be: the guy who missed on almost everything in the first half or the guy who made powerful contact in the second half. Odds are he was probably a bit unlucky in the first half as well; Sano has a career BABIP of .329, but in the first half it was down at .249. Second half it was back up to .331. Dude makes hard contact when he connects his entire career, so the second half seems very repeatable. Gleeman & Bonnes have been talking about this a fair bit on the pod and I think they're right: early impressions stick. Sano was awful to start the season, so it's easy to keep thinking he struggled most of the year and put it together a little at the end. But that's not really the case, and if you reordered his months a little we'd probably be talking about him differently.
  13. jmlease1
    all locks. good players here with exciting potential. It'll be interesting to see where Winder and Sand fall in the pecking order for pitching callups; even in a good year where the rotation is generally healthy like 2019 the twins had 9 guys make starts (I'm not counting Stashak popping in as an "opener") so even assuming the twins sign 2 FA to pair with say Ober, Ryan, and Dobnak...we should expect to see at least 5 more guys make starts for the club, possibly as many as 8. The good news is, we have Winder, Duran, Balazovic, Strotman, Canterino, Sands, and Woods Richardson who could/should all be ready to make their debut in the Twins rotation in 2022. I think this may be around what I think is the pecking order, assuming equal health? Interesting to think about it: Twins starting pitching was a mess this year, but at the end of the day we still only used 13 starters plus 2 openers and whatever the hell you want to call Beau Burrows' outing. With guys like Winder and Sands coming on to the 40-man I already feel much better about our minor-league pitching depth.
  14. jmlease1
    Wander Javier is an interesting case. He's stalled out a bit as a prospect and normally you'd look at him and think he'd want to move on to another organization and wouldn't be worthy of a 40-man spot. but he's experienced another organization and came back to the twins when presented with the opportunity. So while I still don't think he's a good choice to add to the 40-man...I think there's a real possibility he might be interested in staying with the twins on a minor league deal for another season since he started to get back on track this year being back in his first organization. the grass is not always greener, and he may be less enthusiastic about jumping elsewhere after struggling in Tampa.
  15. jmlease1
    I'm happy to sign Pineda at this price...and I think there's a fine chance that he'd take it. 9In fact, I could see the twins going 2 years and $15-18M on him. He is who he is at this point, but if you go in understanding that he's got a lot of value. He's going to make 20-25 starts, throw 100-150 innings, with an ERA+ that's probably going to land between 105-125. You have to expect that he's going to miss some time (and if he doesn't, that's a bonus) but that he'll be effective when healthy. he likes it here, the team likes him, and if he comes into camp in shape he should be able to hold down a rotation spot for most of the year. If we make the rebound and get back to the playoffs, I wouldn't feel bad about Pineda making a start for the twins.
  16. jmlease1
    Wallner is still as advertised: good power, lots of Ks, but so far makes enough contact and shows enough patience to be effective. Glad to see him getting ABs in the AFL; looking forward to seeing how he does at AA next year and whether he can still make enough contact to be effective. The power plays, and I can live with Ks if he'll still make enough contact. Good for Laweryson in taking advantage of the innings and opportunity. Might be small sample size, but performance still counts. He gave up too many hits in high A this year, but he could be someone who got really hurt by the missed development year and needed time to get back on track. Wallner was the only "real" prospect the Twins sent to the AFL, IMHO. The rest are there on a "we like something about you, now go prove it" tickets. Helmen & Bechtold are doing pretty well, Laweryson is showing his ability to hunt Ks. Sisk, Funderburk, and Featherstone need to do better with the opportunity.
  17. jmlease1
    This is...interesting? I can't see spending $17M on Marte to play LF under any circumstances, though, and dropping $14M on veteran bullpen adds while filling the rotation via quantity over quality scares me. (I also don't see Garlick making this team next year) Gray makes sense to me as an option and bringing back Adrianza as a utility option who can actually play SS is interesting.
  18. jmlease1
    I agree. They could use one experienced RH arm to balance things out, but otherwise I feel pretty good about a bullpen featuring Rogers, Thielbar, Duffey, Alcala, Moran, and maybe Gant or Minaya plus 1 FA RH reliever. I expect they'll take a flier on a waiver wire/reclamation project for the 8th spot (which I have no objection to). With some of the other options from the minors...I think they're in decent shape there.
  19. jmlease1
    I think the $15M is total value, not AAV. That's the problem with Knebel or Graveman, who are coming off good seasons: they could demand multi-year deals and I'm less excited about giving any reliever three years with an AAV over $5M, and both of those guys could get offers for $6-7M per year and someone could easily offer them the extra year to close the deal. Do we want that? Imagine if we were stuck with Colome for 2 more years right now. people would be talking about burning the stadium down!
  20. jmlease1
    This post is depressing to me because I love Greinke and part of me just wants him with the Twins, and there's a lot of good evidence here that it would be a terrible idea. Sigh.
  21. jmlease1
    Well, obviously the Twins were also hoping for a bounceback from Jake Cave to fill in some of those LH ABs in the OF to prevent Kirilloff or Larnach from having to carry the burden before they were ready. Unfortunately, Cave struggled, got seriously injured, and never bounced back. Considering how effective he'd been pre-pandemic, it wasn't a crazy bet, but it was one that didn't work out. I think the Twins would have been happy to keep Eddie Rosario from another season, just not for $9M+, and once that decision happened Eddie was gone because pride gets in the way. He'd take less money (he had no choice) but wasn't going to take less from the Twins. Kirilloff was more effective in fewer games even with the injury and cost the league minimum, so it's hard to say the twins made a mistake: they didn't, no matter how fun Eddie Rosario is. He's having one of his patented hot streaks with Atlanta right now, which is great for them, but no team is going to bet on eddie staying hot like that for a full season. He's a good player and a useful one. but he's not a guy to commit to for 3+ years and for significant money. he's had two seasons with a bWAR over 2, and one was his rookie season. (to be fair he probably would have met that in 2020 if there had been enough games). He's likely to be worth 1-2 bWAR next year, containing a fantastic hot stretch and a couple of brutal cold ones at the plate, while adding very little else on the field (the baserunning is poor, the fielding is poor, and that stuff matters). He's unlikely to get a multi-year contract. he is who he is. He's made over $20M in MLB and been a starter for basically 6 seasons. Good for him. But it's a poor financial and baseball decision to pay him more than $5-6M at this point and he was never going to agree to stay with the twins at that number.
  22. jmlease1
    i think he's worth bringing back at the arbitration price. he's good enough that you generally know what you're getting, a 1 year deal has minimal risk, he should have time to recover from the injury by spring training, and he'd have some value at the trade deadline if things tank for the twins again next year. He's a good pitcher and with him, Thielbar, and Moran they'd really have the left side of the bullpen well covered with guys who can destroy lefty batters but also be effective against righties. (I believe in Moran's change) With Rogers back, they could have a very good, very flexible, and very effective bullpen.
  23. jmlease1
    My goodness, these were some moonshots. I can't decide which ones are more fun: the ones that clear the restaurant in CF or the ones that drop into the 3rd deck in LF, or just Sano going slightly oppo to deposit one in the bleachers in CF. Oh, my. you know, Justin morneau hit some long ones in his career so when he's amazed...
  24. jmlease1
    Kirilloff is going to be excellent next season. He can flat-out hit and will fit in very nicely in the heart of the order. he should be the starting LF from Day 1 next year, backup at 1B and get a few days off at DH. here's hoping he plays 150 games next year, because if he does I see 20+ HRs and 30+ doubles with a very nice slash line. He's passable in the corners and can hold it down just fine until 1B opens up.
  25. jmlease1
    I don't disagree, but the problem is the entire fanbase might have PTSD in relation to Colome...and if we do, does the team? But seriously, I'm not sure his style is right overall for the Twins 'pen. He's basically a cutter guy who's hard to square up on if he keeps it out of the heart of the plate, but struggled to do just that at times with the Twins. I'd prefer to get a RH arm who really brings some gas and strike outs to the party. (I'm not sure who that will be at this point, but there should be someone?) Twins will almost certainly run out a 8-man bullpen again, and I like 6 internal options right now: Rogers, Alcala, Duffey, Thielbar, Moran, and John Gant. (I think Gant is a better option for the bullpen. Others might prefer running Minaya back) I really do believe in Moran and his change-up. I'd look to find this year's Trevor May to fill one more spot in FA and look in-house for the last one, in part to keep the Twins from getting stuck in the sunk-cost fallacy. We got to a solid bullpen by the end of the year when we started churning arms until we found the combo that worked. Sign a bunch of veterans to $1M+ contracts and they'd better perform out the gate, because those guys probably don't get churned if/when they struggle. It's a tough world out there for relief pitchers because increasingly there's no "middle class" and more teams are seeing everyone that's not on the top end as being fungible...and they might not be wrong.
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