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Jocko87

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Everything posted by Jocko87

  1. Jocko87
    His defense isn't sub-par. Its actively bad. Eye-test, metrics, optics any measurement you want to use. Actively bad. The truest indictment of the defense is how the manager uses him. After passing on using any of the three break glass in case of emergency players last night in obvious situations to platoon for Gallo at DH, Rocco used a tender footed Correa on his day off as a defensive replacement in an 8-2 game. We all know ho much it must have pained Rocco to see left on left crime in the batters box but to realize Juliens defense pained him more? Days off for the superstars are sacred in these parts and Julien can't be trusted with a 6 run lead. Tells us everything we need to know about his future at 2nd base. His arm is stretched at 2nd too, by the way, the double play throws need zip he doesn't have. Organizationally, long term he is a trade chip. A very good one but I wouldn't wait too long as more holes will be exposed. This is an enormous success story though. As an 18th round pick (for now obvious reasons) we have a good chance to see 2nd or 3rd round value returned. Score. As we are seeing the ability of this front office to find and develop AAAA hitters we are going to be flipping a lot of them. The hitters sent away have all been questionable gloves and I expect that trend to continue with Julien, Miranda, Wallner etc. no matter how good they hit.
  2. Jocko87
    Texting my Astros buddy, they are getting ready for a similar stretch of games and prepping for it as well. That's why his pitchers had to wear it a little bit last night.
  3. Jocko87
    It's not polarizing for me. These are the running backs of baseball. Easy to replace skill set, short shelf life unless elite, no ability to return value at other positions. Yes, a special high pick comes along once in a while but at least in the NFL you have a fairly straightforward path to return on your investment. Give him the ball day one. Highly drafted running backs don't pan out at a great rate either. I'm not even looking at the permanent 1st base type in the first ten rounds on my personal board. Maybe there is a special kid at a baseball factory like LSU who happens to play first at the moment because there are 1st round picks everywhere. I'll take a look but would have to be pretty confident in the ability to play elsewhere. I'm also saying this as a permanent first base type. Alas, I was not drafted.
  4. Jocko87
    I have really enjoyed watching young Louis pitch well but I’m far more impressed against who and where he is doing it. Two trips to Yankee stadium and now the healthy defending champs in their place and doing more than holding his own is darn impressive.
  5. Jocko87
    Yup, I think Maeda will get some starts and pair nicely with the long man that never sees action.
  6. Jocko87
    I like using the season over/under simply because the most effort went into creating it. Lots of money on the line. Most places were at 83 or 84 wins which is pretty logical but if they projected the pitching to be at this level the number would’ve been 93. If they projected the hitting to be like this the number would’ve been 75. One of these will normalize significantly. If it’s the sticks 90 wins is still in the cards. I will mention the following as the article author brought it up and not as a specific comment on this piece. Most of the articles should be forum posts. Most of the article authors should spend twice the time on half as many pieces. We are driving our own daily consternation with endless versions of the same story with a different title. All while watching a sport that meanders through the woods at the pace of a lazy butterfly. Then when a conversation that needs to happen over a few weeks to observe and react, oops, that post is 12 pages down and the website gives you a stern warning for bringing up old news. It’s driving the consternation and I agree, it’s quite a bit too much. Both in the levels of concern and hyperbole of the titles and the sheer amount of the articles produced.
  7. Jocko87
    Amen! As a fan base we probably need to stay tuned to the rest of the league a bit more for context as we apply judgement to our beloved. Texting with my Astros fan buddy today, did you know they had a very strong hashtag last year #LOBstros As in left on base Astros. I’d hate to see what they are like when they aren’t winning a World Series. Regarding our front office decisions here, I care much more about the process and improving the process than whatever result of an individual trade. Call me crazy but having a new trainer may have as much to do with acquiring pitchers who were more broken than they thought as the late injury rash. I for one, will celebrate the success of our hitting prospects when we trade them away. If we are selling a better product, we will have better customers willing to pay a higher price. I learned that part from Breaking Bad.
  8. Jocko87
    I’ve been very glad to be living out of the blackout regions and this is a very good thing for those that are stuck. I pay this same money for the MLB tv package and get everything I want living out of market. I wouldn’t have it if I lived in market but would pay for the option to avoid the blackout if I could. I generally don’t do the VPNs and streaming boxes anymore but don’t blame anyone who does. We have to solve dumb problems. I will be curious how this effects my plan. A blackout free full mlb tv package would be at least $500. I like having all the games but wouldn’t pay that. What do they do with the Iowa blackout hole? 5 team package?
  9. Jocko87
    But the only player drafted after of any real note at this point is Corbin Carroll, also a risky high schooler. He was not consensus in any way, he went 16th. That portion of the draft board is ugly and the D-backs hit a lottery ticket.
  10. Jocko87
    Yup, even if it does “haunt” it will at least have the benefit of producing several more articles like this over the years. Do the Tampa Bay Rays have a message board lamenting that dang Joe Ryan trade? Serious question, if not, room for expansion! But no worries, we will have new series of trades to lament coming around soon. It’s not great that Mahle is injured but it is good that they are leveraging areas of strength to get pitching. They are, on purpose, acquiring pitchers with question marks as a measured risk. The players they sent away last year, and I expect this year, are bat only prospects and players for the most part. Julien and Miranda should not be too comfy in July if they can’t find an outfield glove. It’s a shock because it’s not the traditional Twins way but get used to it.
  11. Jocko87
    But so do all the rest of the years. For all the rest of the teams. Even in the first round the hit rate is abysmal in the MLB draft. Baseball reference has a good draft pick sort and view. Take a look at some random years. I just picked 2014 for fun. 13 of the 41 first round picks have not yet reached the majors leagues, including the #1 and #2 overall (high school pitchers Brady Aiken and Tyler Kolek). Of the remaining 28 that have played in the majors, 16 have a career WAR under 2.0 including our own Nick Gordon. It’s tough to project even at the top, have to make up for it in volume.
  12. Jocko87
    I don't think the incentive plays into the equation anymore. I was thinking bullpen when he came back as well but have also been thinking he pairs really nicely with the rotating long reliever that hasn't been getting any action with the rest of the rotation being so solid. Maeda can cut it loose, relatively, for 4-5 innings and warm up as a starter. Short notice doesn't feel like it would be great for his arm but just guessing there.
  13. Jocko87
    Shohei is about to make his contract look like peanuts and I'm out at those levels no matter the player. $200-270m? Meh, not my money, price to play.
  14. Jocko87
    It would be nice to have the option though. I don't think anyone believes a hot Kepler is carrying the team, hot Kepler is .750 OPS. We are talking the difference between a low A prospect and maaaybe a ML reliever. Its certainly not a high stakes play. The elephant in the room is that they don't trust that Wallner et al more than Kepler. I'm more concerned about that than spending a few more months with Max. We should be finding out though.
  15. Jocko87
    We agree, and personally I think Gallo provided plenty of backfill for the position. Its not what I would have done. I think they ultimately made the bet that they could get a couple hot months of Kepler and a better in season trade with not a lot of downside. Still might work. It's not an unreasonable play but it does look worse in the rear view mirror.
  16. Jocko87
    Front office is comfortable and should be. The coaching staff should not be. This is the most talent assembled at the upper levels this organization has seen in quite a long time, if ever. They are doing a pretty decent job with the roster and most importantly to me, have been constantly adjusting their approach to get better. The same can't be said for the on field production. Opinions vary about how much of that is the front office vs the coaching staff. I know @chpettit19 and I disagree on the relative impact of coaches but I would say the difference between Royce Lewis or Brooks Lee being stars or solid MLB players is coaching and player development. How much responsibility for that we can assign to the FO is unknown without some inside knowledge. They do hire the coaches though and some will not be invited back if we don't see some improvement long before the FO is gone. While this front office has not exactly drafted any stars they do have a couple hopefully on the way and have done an exceptional job getting stars in other ways. Locking up two top 50 players like they did was masterful. Why those stars aren't performing to their potential is, to me, coaching. Stars need coaching too.
  17. Jocko87
    Greene was a high schooler as well, off the charts risk for me. Lewis was the much lower risk pick, if there can be such a thing at #1. I want high floor but high upside as well at #5. For me I get the upside in position and the floor in talent. In this draft its one of the two pitchers if Langford is gone. Dollander is trending to be a value pick. Dollander was Skenes before Skenes was Skenes. I would certainly take him over one of the shortstops.
  18. Jocko87
    Agreed but they know that's what they are getting. Wallner can do all of that minus the defense. Not unreasonable to set the floor and wait a few months. To get closer to their price they need someone desperate at the deadline.
  19. Jocko87
    Agreed but in the larger picture a month or two isn't going to matter much. On the balance, offense/defense, even the assumed difference just isn't that large. They locked in a more certain player for a few months. I do think they are overestimating his value, I don't think the LH corner OF market is down-I think that's what it is. Saturated. I still think they have to move him but if they are overvaluing him I could see taking pivoting to a much larger return for Wallner or Larnach. Its not likely they move either of those guys but the best return for Kepler is a middle relief pitcher.
  20. Jocko87
    I wish someone would have thought to tell him not to run into walls years ago. Sorry-too easy. I can summarize all this discussion with the following statement. If MAT had an OPS that was about 100-150 points higher our problems would be solved. No? I think that would be a fantastic outcome. The problem is that player is a unicorn, like a Buxton-but healthy. I just spent some time sorting through various leaders in center field and it would be a good exercise for everyone in the thread. Some Trouts and J-Rods, lotta Ruiz and MAT. Sorry. That said, Lewis may be the best option we have to maximize the roster. I do believe that much of the Lewis to center field talk and action was based on Miranda locking down 3rd base. Where do we play all these studs? I've shifted to Miranda in the outfield and Lewis at 3rd just to maximize the value of Royce. He doesn't need fooled with at this point in his career. Having little or no minor league experience means he will be doing a ton of adjustments with the big club. Lets not add to the curve with defensive changes too. I wouldn't mind if they made the change in the off-season. Give him time to adjust and make it permanent. I don't think anyone will play him off 3rd base though. Miranda would have to come around hard plus Lee and Julien pressing. It would signal the end of Buxton in the outfield sadly.
  21. Jocko87
    If he's healthy he starts. I'd like to see more platoon use for him but without any RH hitting outfielders truly in the mix it is was it is. He will not be benched as, yes, an organizational favorite and well respected veteran but as a solid player that can be counted on. Would we like more? Sure, but we need all the stability we can get. Besides, if you bench him his trade value is tanked. It's low enough as everyone else knows what we have waiting too.
  22. Jocko87
    I've been saying for months that they will be taking 4-5 more shortstop types no matter who they have in the pipeline but I would not advocate it with the top two-three picks. I love the idea of stocking up on players with lots of skills and ability to move around the diamond. They make great trade chips, which are my favorite kind. I do believe you have to look at your organization and draft in the top 5 to profile on your roster in some manner. I'm not talking about taking a catcher 10 spots to high because you need catchers, I'm just using it as a tiebreaker between equalish talents. I don't want a high school lefty corner outfielder because they grow on trees, unless its a generational talent. If they are, they won't be there at 5. I can fill that spot ten different ways. Give me the pitcher or the RH outfield bat we need badly for use within the next two years.
  23. Jocko87
    To pass on Skenes they would have to have something from Wes bordering on arm falling off. It’s also reasonable to assume they would have the best insights from Wes but they also might not be on speaking terms. Who knows. I’m of the asset value thought process and there would be no greater value than Skenes at #5 unless he has a metal plate in his shoulder. Trade value would be off the charts if they wanted to go that way.
  24. Jocko87
    Everyone is still very tight lipped and there is so so much left to happen. In addition to the workouts and meetings, we still have to sign with agents and signability discussions. A composite of the teams boards would look like that conspiracy theorist meme with lines every where. The ESPN mock from today had Clark going #1 so Pitt could save almost a million. The preps can still threaten to go to college and while NIL money hasn't hit baseball fully yet it will soon. How much NIL money does it take to skew the slot value game? Also, did you say 110mph AVERAGE exit velocity? Langford was my target already but sheesh.
  25. Jocko87
    This is basically what it comes down to. Kepler being a known, very affordable piece, is insurance against the kids not being alright. The cost is that we get to have threads like this. The FO made the right play here even if its not exactly what most of us would have done. It's not that they are holding the kids down, they are buying a few months to make sure they want to proceed. It's a perfectly reasonable play. Someone probably moves at the deadline, but don't be certain its Kepler. Also, we are seeing the market for LH hitting corner outfielders isn't tremendous. Every team has several and more are on the way. I have no data but assume it lines up roughly with the start of the platoon era, 20-30 years ago. It's the main reason I'm out on the 2 high school kids at the #5 pick. While one might stick in center, I hate paying the highest price for an asset in the most loaded area. They have to be generational talents to pay off. Meanwhile, we can't do better than Garlick from the RH side of the plate. Nobody cares how bad his defense is because he hits RH.
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