LastOnePicked

I think too much emphasis is being placed on the idea that Twins critics are "cranks" who "hate analytics." Sure, there's a bit of that sentiment floating around, but I'm not even sure that's what Viola is saying here. Every organization has to use every legal tool and resource at their disposal to gain a competitive advantage. Analytical analysis of the game is a huge - and wonderful - part of that. The Twins were very late to that aspect, but appear to be catching up. That's all well and good. But not even the deepest dive into analytics will win a team a championship. There's a reason why the White Sox hired a manager like Tony LaRussa ... and there's a reason why that team is looking like a very strong contender for the postseason. Toughness. Fight. Resilience. Cohesion. Clarity of purpose. Baseball IQ. These intangibles just seem sorely lacking in this team. And when this team faces any real pressure to perform, it shows. We do seem to be leading the league in quality excuses, though, as though only our minor league system faced a pandemic and only our big league squad has been hit by injuries. I don't hate the team for losing ground - that happens. But I don't respect the inability of this club to take hard criticism. And I don't see any signs that any lessons are sinking in.

"For the first time in their tenure, Falvey and Levine fell short." I like my fellow Twins fans, I like Twins Daily and I really respect the writers here, but this is an oft-repeated sentiment I just don't understand. The point of a baseball season is to COMPETE and to WIN. IN. THE. PLAYOFFS. That's the ENTIRE reason why professional sports organizations structure their seasons like they do. Falvey and Levine have fallen short every single year so far. Of course, many teams are going to fall short of that high bar, and there are many joys of a baseball season for watching individual players and performances. But mid-market teams often have to endure long cycles of losing in order to assemble a competitive team that is ready and able to at least do some damage in the playoffs. We've endured the cycles of losing ... but Falvey and Levine, like Ryan before them, have so far failed to bring the second part into fruition. It's okay to have the bar set this high, folks. In fact, it's not even such a high bar. Since 2004, only one other MLB team has won fewer postseason games than the Twins. One. Yes, the two recent Division Championships were nice. If we're honest with ourselves, they were won against very weak competition (2019) and in very odd circumstances (2020). But neither team was at all ready for the playoffs, and Viola's criticism seems pretty resonant - they were not (and are not) a fundamentally sound team and for long stretches they do not appear to play with a competitive attitude. Also, deadline trades that should have bolstered the team's chances never happened, and those smaller trades that did happen were ineffective at best. And now, despite an offseason of signings and preseason predictions of another division title, they are one of the worst teams in baseball, with the second worst pitching staff in baseball and with virtually no starting rotation in place for 2022. This is abject failure, plain and simple. We're back to crossing our fingers that Andrew Albers has a good night. I just continue to be confused as to why the general consensus on the leadership of this team is that it's "time for them to grow," rather than, "it's time for them to go." But they will not be fired, that much is clear. And I'll still root for the Twins, no matter what. But I haven't seen much in the way of FO moves from this team, or managerial decisions from Rocco, that inspire confidence that this mess is going to turn around any time soon. I think these folks think they're doing just fine, and have just been a bit unlucky. You can't grow if you can't face your faults ... and your failures.

Every now and then, Stu's column veers from satire into cold, hard reality. Youch. "“Can you just imagine if the Twins have turned things around and are leading the AL Central after Memorial Day?" The joke's on them, though. I can't even imagine this in 2022. Go ahead, Yankees - do your worst.

The antics of team "E-Z Pass" continue, year after year. I don't really mind losing to the Yankees this year (draft pick booster), but I'll believe the Twins are capable to winning a playoff series the year I see them absolutely beat up on the Yankees. Here's hoping that year isn't too far off.

There are openings in the rotation, and some of these young guys are absolutely stepping up and claiming them. There are openings in the bullpen, snd some of these second-chance veterans are doing the same. There was an opening for a leadoff hitter - Kepler is claiming it. There's need for a DH - Jeffers and Rooker and upping their game. There was an opening for team leader - Polanco is making it his. This is all so much fun to see - a bit of assertiveness in these guys that says, "this spot on this team - this spot is mine."

What ... is ... happening? I talked trash about this team for two weeks, and they come out play like this? After Cruz is traded? Baseball is confusing. And glorious. But mostly confusing.

I'm not sure I'm reading Simmons' tweet correctly - is he sort of poking fun at the CDC or other entities for pushing a vaccine that isn't 100% effective? If so, it's a dumb take, sure (no one ever claimed that the vaccine was 100% effective or that it had no side effects). Evidence indicates that's it's widely effective with very mild side effects. BUT, I might want to hear him out first before calling him a nut. And the Twins didn't sign him for his bat or his medical expertise - they signed him to prevent runs. He's done that. Let's move on.

I don't get to watch games often. Haven't made it to Target Field in awhile, and I mostly listen on the radio, so yesterday's YouTube game was a treat. I'm not in any way an expert on pitching, but I came way very, very impressed with Ober. He had remarkable command and poise. If he's a harbinger of things to come, the Twins have a very solid chance at being competitive within a year or so. I say this as a huge FO skeptic and a generally grumpy Twins fan overall. But there might be signs that an organizational plan is coalescing here. I hope so.

After about two solid days of being a fairly negative voice around here, I'm just going to say that I loved watching today's game and I LOVE beating the White Sox. More, please.

Fair points overall, but a big "no" to this. FO staff receive detailed scouting reports, reports on health and physical conditioning - and with regard to trades they field offers from other teams' FO staff that we never hear about. We fans have access to a lot of data, but not the crucial data to make these franchise-altering decisions. If the stated goal from a FO is to develop top-tier starting pitching or to contend for the World Series title and these things don't happen within a reasonable timeframe, it makes all the sense in the world that fans would call for change. It's not our job as fans to do better work for them, or to find the owner a new FO staff. Maybe all we're just arguing here is whether or not it's been a reasonable timeframe yet. Some folks don't think so. Some do. And that's fine - viva la difference.

Friendly request: Can we not expect any fan of a team (we all likely have careers, modest paychecks, family, other obligations) to do the work of a FO staff of a team? It's not the fan's job to be better than the people who are paid tremendous salaries to do this work. It's the fan's job to hold that staff to very high expectations, and to raise the heat when the decisions by the paid professionals don't lead to good outcomes. Fair or not, results are the standard of success - not the quantity or quality of excuses.

They didn't win one game, correct. They weren't even remotely competitive in those playoff appearances. That matters. If some were happy with winning a weak division twice, that's fine. For a lot of us, that wasn't nearly enough. And that's okay, too - it's okay to have high expectations of a highly-touted farm system and a hyped-up FO rebuild. That's not a Bizarro World at all. If you don't ask for more, hope for more or expect more you rarely get more.

Nick, I like that you're trying to stay positive. But these kinds of cherry-picked data points don't help your argument. The first 42 games still count in this miserable season. If anything, those first 42 games are when the FO fielded the Plan A team they intended to field in 2021 - and they were even worse than Plan C (or whatever iteration of this team we're on now). That's not necessarily a mark in their favor - though I was glad to see the team adapt and show some fight in Houston.

For the most part, I agree. Trust in the baseball operations aspect was very low, and animosity was high. But there was a lot of hope and hype for the new prospects in the system. I remember Dave St. Peter responding to one of my emails that the team saw itself on the verge of AL contention, despite the dismal then-current results. We all carried that hope with us. That hope hasn't panned out, even with a FO and organizational overhaul. Does that mean we should long for the days of Terry Ryan? Gosh no - but we also shouldn't exaggerate what we've gotten so far either, or downplay where we are right now as we look ahead. Now, you seem to see this year as just a blip on an otherwise steady path. You used the phrase "because of one bad season" in your article, as though you saw the future and 2021 was just an anomaly. If you can see into the future, great - bring me back some winning lottery numbers. But if you can't, you may have to realize that this season could be part of a long losing streak, rather than a blip. It's fine to hope for a 2022 turnaround, but they've lost their best hitter and their best pitcher, and they were already a terrible team. And these high-end prospect arms we hear about? Almost all have been shut down due to injury or wear. Ober and Jax are probably little more than Nick Blackburn and Andrew Albers. Young sluggers aren't getting fastballs and are going to continue to struggle to adjust. Our defense is below average and slow. And that's a recipe for contention? Is it as bad as we FO detractors think? Maybe not. But it's probably not as rosy a picture as you paint here. If I owned the team, I'd thank Falvey and Levine for their service, but I'd move on - maybe try to pull some folks from SF or TB. I haven't seen anything yet to indicate this FO is better than average at what they need to do (draft, trade, develop), and a team with the Twins' payroll and market needs a well-above-average FO. Without Andy MacPhail, the Twins would have never won in 87 and 91. Top-tier staffing makes a difference. And now I'll let it go. We'll all return to this conversation in a year, when we'll have a better vantage point to see who was more right - the pro-Falvey/Levine crowd, or the folks who were ready to move on.

With respect, we need to get ourselves away from this perspective. When the Twins (or any team) trades away or loses a prospect who has a breakout year or becomes a star, no other team in all of baseball had a better opportunity or clearer vantage point to evaluate that player. The blame falls the heaviest by far on the team that controlled the player. Yes, this does happen across MLB. But some teams can afford these mistakes more than others. And the best Front Offices don't make these mistakes very often, if at all. This FO has made this mistake five times already.

Exactly this. It seems like a lot of folks here are acting like the Twins are running neck-and-neck with Cleveland as division/WC runners-up this year. They are one of the WORST TEAMS IN MLB. This isn't a matter of falling a little short of contention - this is "Total System Failure" territory. That's why I'm so down on the FO. Many teams fall short of their hopes and goals - that's fine. This team was expected to win the division and isn't even close to being competent. That signals a major organizational problem moving forward. Now, the team may have gotten lucky in one way. If you're not going to win, it's probably better to trade Cruz and Berrios and to have a top-5 draft pick in 2022. Let's see what they can do with this little silver lining. Take your lumps, learn from the contenders and turn this thing around in a hurry.

Fair enough, my friend. For what it's worth, I hope I'm wrong and off-base. And I admire your willingness to see the good.

In the interest of fairness, there were some very good FA signings in 2019: Cruz, Cron, Schoop. This made for a very nice mix of established veterans, guys with something to prove and developing young talent. They were a dominant AL Central team in 2019 (though they did maybe benefit from a Cleveland slide at the end). It was fun. Good for them. 2020 doesn't strike me as all that good. Many players regressed, and they backed into the division title against fairly weak competition. Had 2020 been a full season, I doubt the Twins would have even made the playoffs last year. How much credit are they supposed to get for this? I fully understand that if the WS is the only goal, then fans of 28 teams are going to experience disappointing seasons each year. As a fan, I would have considered just some degree of postseason fight - and the development of a young core and strong starting staff and bullpen to build upon - to be worthy of praise. These things just haven't happened. Instead of building and getting stronger, they've now completely collapsed as an organization and seemingly missed a window of contention. Again, why is that worthy of credit?

But we do have an idea after these 5-6 years. They took over one of the worst teams in baseball, and they are again one of the worst teams in baseball. In between, they won zero playoff games. Their trades and free agent signings are a mixed bag at best. Their internal talent evaluation is very poor. They have made dubious contract extensions, and whiffed on extending higher-impact players. Their highly-touted young arms have mostly blown out. The deals they made at this year's deadline generated plenty of press, but the proof of their impact is years away, while the players they traded are thriving. I'm not saying anything negative about who they are as human beings. But I just don't understand the fan loyalty at this point, which doesn't in any way seem earned. Was it all the dazzle of the Bomba Squad year? Don't get me wrong - I LOVE that we beat the Yankees for the season HR record, but I'd trade that in a second for an organization that produces competitive talent more like the Rays or Giants.

Imagine two people run a race. One has everything it needs to win (good shoes, youth, rest, health), and the other runs the race barefooted and hungover. No, it's not the "fault" of the one with the advantage for winning the race, but it's probably not best for him/her to brag too much about winning it, either. Those two division titles are often used as Exhibit A as to why we FO detractors are "wrong." But what was our record against those outside our division and against teams above .500? Most importantly, what was our experience in the playoffs after those titles were won? I'm not angry that they haven't won a World Series, by the way, but I'm concerned that they haven't even in one game been remotely competitive. For all the hype, there just hasn't been much substance. I'm coming off as harsher than I probably am, but I'm surprised that the consensus fan response at this point isn't a whole lot of skepticism and a whole lot of pressure on these guys to make good on their stated objectives. As someone else said here, their leash should be very short at this point. We seem almost too quick to accept their excuses ... or worse, even to make excuses for them.

I swear, last post for a bit, but for those like Nick who are wondering why there's so much negativity or pushback on this FO, here's the core of our argument: Ability to draft: Perhaps too early to tell, though first-round choices don't seem overwhelmingly impressive. And some (Sabato) are mind-bogglingly bad. Ability to assess MiLB talent internally: Doesn't look great at this point. Pathways for prospects isn't clear, and many get blocked by sub-par or replacement-level players. Ability to develop MLB players: So-so. Most young Twins seem particularly fundamentally unsound (though rookies often struggle). Ability to trade and assess MiLB/MLB talent externally: Not good at all. Maeda may have been a slight win, while there are some major, major losses. Ability to field a winner: Division championships in the years when 3 of 5 division foes were completely rebuilding. Not a single playoff victory - in fact, not even a competitive game or a close loss yet. In fact, many of us are wondering why is there so much defense of this regime. It's not a particularly hasty assessment at this point. I'm hoping for the best, but I'm waiting for actual results of a sustainable winner - which was their stated goal. If my assessment isn't fair, I'll be very happy to eat my words.

Isn't the wisest roster management to keep players with the most talent and ability - particularly at the moment when you need those talents/skills? I can be fairly accused of trying to make a point with the benefit of hindsight, but I'm hoping that there is an important lesson in here for Falvey/Levine about talent assessment, too.

That's probably conventional wisdom, yes. But what is Baddoo's actual "position" this year? Who appears more capable of contributing to a MLB team - Baddoo or Cave? I want the FO to be able to make those kinds of assessments with accuracy - not just to rely on general conventional wisdom. I fully realize I'm being additionally tough on the FO here. But like all of you, I love this team, and I want to see them at their best with the most effective talent assessment possible. That's the only way we can build a winner here. And winning a championship is fun - I'm old enough to have seen two of them.

Yes, but I have to repeat an earlier comment - no other MLB team had better access to assess and evaluate Miranda as a player than the Twins. The Twins somehow believed he wasn't ready, and were fine with exposing him. I understand that these decisions are probably very challenging. But I'm getting weary of the idea that all of this happens just by being "unlucky." The best Front Offices find a way to maximize returns consistently. I'd rather be looking for the best than hoping these guys will get better.

I wish I could, but I just can't. They somehow had room for Jake Cave and others on the roster. Baddoo hit .390 in Spring Training. He was clearly ready to go, and any series of offseason workouts/assessments could have told them so. He was the third player drafted in Rule 5. In other words, other teams knew what we didn't know. That's just .... very bad. Plus, they also exposed their breakout 2021 Minor League Player of the Year, Jose Miranda to the Rule 5 draft. Ugh. Yes, it's tough on FO staff, but the only way to evaluate a transaction is by the results. We can give people some grace for understandable mistakes, but teams like the Twins don't have a lot of wiggle room for these kinds of mistakes. These mistakes build - they compound. A Twins team with Baddoo has less to worry about if Kiriloff goes down again or if we end up losing Buxton. Or he could have been a great young trade chip while trying to bring in pitching. More gaps need to be covered now, and all the expense of drafting and developing is a lost investment. This FO is going to get more chances here, and maybe that's as it should be. But I think the team would be fine if they decided to look for other bright young minds from other organizations who are looking for a chance to build a winner. This FO doesn't appear to be anything particularly special.