stringer bell

I just fed my obsession by playing golf for about the fifteenth day out of sixteen. Well, it wasn't pretty and I left the course pretty frustrated. Before I got home, I had a chance to read the latest on Twins Daily and Major League Trade Rumors. The Twins will face the high-flying Yankees with three red-hot pitchers going for the Evil Empire. The Twins will counter with Cole Sands, Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy. I don't think I've ever seen such a lopsided matchup in favor of the visiting team when both teams are leading their divisions. Ever. As frustrated as I am with my golf game, the Twins continuing use of the Injured List and granting days off for their most dynamic talent provides me and plenty of other Twins fans with continual angst. It is like they are trying to win with one arm behind their back. Let's examine the components of my frustration; Injured List (pitchers)--A key bullpen arm (Alcala) has missed two months with an arm issue. That happens and all teams run into that on occasion. A marginal projected contributor (Dobnak) has missed the entire season so far and isn't close to coming back. Again not unexpected and all teams run into this. Currently, Gray (pectoral), Ryan (COVID) and Ober (groin) are all out. This is where the frustration builds for me. These aren't arm injuries and both of the injuries were borderline enough that the player wasn't disabled immediately. It seems that maximum caution has been used in all three cases. But these three are the top three starters on the team and none of them will face the Yankees this week. Beyond the immediate frustration is the fact that the team has been very conservative in extending the starts of all of their starters, yet here come the injuries. Add the cherry on top of a COVID case for their top young starter that has caused him to miss about three weeks and you start to wonder, what will happen next. One (frustrating) thing we can count on--there will be more short starts when the Injured List guys return to the rotation. Again, it seems that it is a constant, not the exception. Part two--position players. Having players who are breaking out miss time to injury and illness happens, but the Twins seem to have that as a rule. Gilberto Celestino, Kyle Garlick, Trevor Larnach and Royce Lewis all seemed on the way to proving they were valuable major league players and all were detoured to the injured list for a period of time. The Buxton management scheme seems to have accomplished one thing--make Byron Buxton an ordinary ballplayer. We've seen little of the blazing speed (don't "open it up" unless you absolutely have to) and he's no longer even causes anxiety for teams when he's on base. Buxton has only played about half the time in center field and when I last looked, he wasn't even a plus defender this year (that is a big portion of his value). Buck has hit homers at a prolific rate, but he's not getting on base enough and, as mentioned, he is not displaying many of his off the charts tools. Next Carlos Correa. After a slow start, Correa has shown himself to be a premium player, but because of a bad bruise when he was hit by a pitch and a case of COVID, he will have missed over a third of the Twins games to date when he returns. The COVID absence wouldn't have been so bad, but his heir apparent was hurt the day before he was diagnosed, so the Twins have used a career minor leaguer as their shortstop (Palacios has looked like a big leaguer. Good for him!). From what I can tell the Blue Jays have all of their top position players and top starters healthy and playing every day. Same for the Yankees. Since the middle of April, that hasn't been the case with the Twins. Why can't we have nice things? Agree? Give some feedback if you'd like. Go Twins!

I too wonder how much rope the Twins will give for Duffey. He has been Colume-like bad so far this season. The numbers don't lie.

I thought it was the right call to take Smeltzer out especially after the fourth inning where he allowed only one run thanks to a nice defensive play by Larnach to hold Springer to a single, a nice GDP, then a homer and another hit. My only gripe was that I thought that either Cotton or Jax might have gone two innings. I agree with 2Twins87 about Duran’s usage. He has done two innings frequently and having someone capable of dominating two of the late innings is huge. The looming off day and return of a couple or three bullpen arms also figured into the pitching decisions. There are a number of players making statements about being big leaguers—-Cotton, Moran, Jax, Miranda, Celestino, Larnach, Palacios and Gordon.

Kirilloff's numbers are very good. He has a .348 BA and .992 OPS. It looks like he's too good for AAA, but the question is whether his wrist is healed to the point that he can swing freely.

Is Kirilloff ready to come back to the Twins?

The Twins finished the month of May with an 18-12 record. Given the schedule they faced in that month, 18 wins isn't exactly dominating. They closed with a 4-5 record in their last nine games playing bottom-dwellers in those last games. Here are the stats for May per ESPN. https://www.espn.com/mlb/team/stats/_/name/min/split/41/table/batting/sort/OPS/dir/desc and https://www.espn.com/mlb/team/stats/_/type/pitching/name/min/split/41 Just a few highlights. Luis Arraez, Trevor Larnach, and Gary Sanchez had fine months. Arraez was an OBP machine. Trevor Larnach had a fine month, but only played in 16 games due to injury. Lowlights: Buxton, Jeffers, and Miranda. Pitching highlights included excellent months from Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Devin Smeltzer and Jhoan Duran. Disappointments included Chris Archer and Yennier Cano. The team outscored their opponents 137-120. The hitters walked 105 times, while Twins' pitchers walked 83 hitters, they struck out 256 batters while the hitters struck out 231 times. The Twins allowed 249 hits while getting 266 hits from their offense. The home run discrepency was 30-27 in favor of the Al Central leaders. Looking at stats provides a little longer view of the season and the month. My view of the month was that there were some interludes where they were very good, but they finished the month playing less than their best. Injuries and COVID-19 have flipped the roster sideways. Byron Buxton needs to either get right or get well and the pitching staff needs health or reinforcements.

The Twins finished 18-12 for May. I was hoping for 20 wins in the month, so it is a minor disappointment. The next month will tell a tale, but it's a long season and players not on the horizon might play a role in future months.

I think Smeltzer has been a great story and without thinking, I thought he would be a lock for Twins Pitcher of the Month. That said, Gray was outstanding and is a great choice.

With Celestino and Kepler both presumably out for a while, maybe it makes more sense to recall Kirilloff than I earlier thought. He is after all, a corner outfielder/first baseman. I don't think the time is now to bid farewell to Gordon. That he provides infield depth and outfield depth and a reasonable chance to reach base makes him pretty ideal as a bench player. I would guess that Sanchez should be fine today and that a third catcher isn't needed.

Lewis probably wouldn't be in right field if Kepler is out. Larnach has quite a bit of experience there and Lewis is a better fit for the bigger area in left.

Agree with all of this. Miranda currently provides backup at both first and third, but bringing up both guys would also cover those positions. There is some question whether Kirilloff is all the way back, but every sharply hit ball gives evidence that he is. Lewis has done nothing to indicate that he is not ready to be back with the Twins.

It's pretty hard to say definitivly that sending Lewis down was a mistake when the team hasn't lost a game since he was sent down. If Lewis returns in early June and is ready to assume 10th regular duties, I don't think the move is a mistake at all.

Is Steer this year's version of Miranda? Actually, that is kind of a double-edged sword given Miranda's production so far this year. Glad to see him (Steer) promoted. It seems that all of the exciting arms are at AA and below, with the exception of Balazovic, who hasn't quite found his groove yet this year. Lots of retreads at St. Paul, which I guess is the way they do things. A couple more guys currently on the Twins might be on their way to St. Paul soon.

Jorge Polanco isn’t hitting much either. Today was his first multi-hit in over a week and his overall numbers have suffered. It is pretty impressive that the Twins have won seven of nine with so little production from two of their best players.

Ober will pitch at KC I believe. Honestly my current trust level is 1) Ryan 2) Gray 3) Ober 4) Winder 5) Smeltzer 6) Bundy 7) Archer. I noticed Smeltzer’s velo consistently in the low 90s. Much better than the 86-88 that he had before. The separation in speed between the heater and breaking stuff should make him more effective.

Kirilloff has a place to play on the major league team, Lewis does not. I agree that Kirilloff driving the ball and getting two extra-base hits is the most important news of the night in the minors. In his last three games he has eight hits, so maybe the turnaround came in the doubleheader on Tuesday. I would expect that he will have to both pass the "eye test" of finding his swing and sustain the hard hit balls before the Twins would consider his recall in a week to two weeks.

Larnach should be back this week and he has done well. Arraez has been satisfactory at first and Kirilloff is starting to hit at St. Paul. Both the starting rotation and the bullpen have surprised, but I think both could use some fortification.

Kirilloff had four hits for the Saints today, including a double and a homer. His AAA numbers suddenly look very good. I believe Alex now has eight hits in the last four games. Hopefully, he can sustain this hot streak, get his confidence back and return to help the Twins.

I think you're right, but Dick and LaTroy were saying that Larnach might have a short rehab before he rejoins the club. If Miranda is optioned, there is about 10 games total of first base experience, almost all of it in Arraez. I'd really love for Kirilloff to start raking, but the team can't count on that at this point. Until the Oakland series, I thought it was a no-brainer that Lewis would be sent down. He was the best offensive player in the two game in Oakland and I started to warm to him becoming a 10th starter on the fly. This isn't an outrage and I don't think this says much about how the front office is viewing this season. I hope Royce is back soon and it's not to replace Correa because of another injury.

I submit that if Lewis stayed, the guy to go would be ........Celestino, and he's hitting for a higher average than Royce. The Twins have a short-term first base problem and I wouldn't be surprised if Curtis Terry is brought up to fill the RH half of that problem. I'm pretty sure if there was room on the 40-man, it would already be done. The place for Lewis to find playing time with Correa being activated is in the outfield, I think. If Buxton is the half-time CF, Lewis could take the other half, but where does that leave Celestino? Lewis' history in other defensive positions is all from his time in the AFL, correct?

Royce Lewis spent a whole month in St. Paul. If he stayed in the majors the remainder of the year, it wouldn't change his eligibility for free agency. There could be the matter of salary arbitration, but the Twins will have Lewis for six more years beyond 2022. Miranda has performed poorly, but is an option at first base.

Pagán has a decent fastball, but it’s the second pitch that will determine his effectiveness. If he can get the split change in the zone or get hitters to chase, he’ll be fine. If not, low-leverage middle relief.

My opinions about Baldelli--1) "Player's Manager"--The first two years here, Rocco had players older than he was. He is as connected to today's players as any MLB manager. He doesn't publicly berate his players and routinely gives players days off, tries not to overextend key bullpen arms and makes some BP voluntary. Most players welcome being treated in this manner, I think. Some might take advantage in some way. 2) Big Picture--Today's game is important, but having the squad have a chance to win games in postseason is more important. Two instances of resting star players have been controversial, but Baldelli would not use Correa in a game against the White Sox and Buxton in a game vs. Cleveland. Rocco and Wes seem determined to limit innings for most of the starting staff, while at the same time, trying to keep the bullpen stocked with available arms. It's tricky, but so far the results have been excellent. The big picture philosophy also shows in use of the Injured List. Better to be careful with a player and let them heal as opposed to playing through an injury that results in missing a large portion of the season. Of course, this is not the case for Byron Buxton, who is being frequently rested and used as a DH in an attempt to get him through a knee injury. 3) Analytics etc.--Baldelli has been accused of being a slave to analytics--refusing to let a pitcher face a lineup for the third time, shifting, changing the lineup on a near daily basis as well as not using small-ball tools like bunts and stolen bases. I think analytics are helpful in deciding when a pitcher should be taken out. Baldelli goes with percentages and tendencies and most often he is right. I think Rocco Baldelli is a good fit for the MInnesota Twins this year and probably going forward. Manager of the Year? It's way to early to even speculate.

Short starts and a well-used bullpen argue to keep the maximum number of pitchers. Of all the factors about Lewis, the one area of concern would be defense. Sticking him at third where he played a bit in the AFL, or in the outfield would be a stretch IMHO. He has aced the audition, but that doesn’t qualify him to be a utility player or supplant Correa