stringer bell

One thing to remember is that Kirilloff can't be recalled unless someone goes on the IL for the next 10 days. It is probably fair to say that he might need to sustain good performance. Let's hope he can continue to produce and force his way onto the Twins roster.

The Twins concluded the first month of the 2023 regular season with a 17-12 record. They stand 3.5 games ahead of Cleveland in the mediocre AL Central Division. What was projected to be a tough April schedule ended up being very manageable. The Twins played seven games against the New York Yankees, winning four, at an ideal time, with the Yankee pitching staff and lineup hamstrung by injuries. They also played the World Champion Astros, winning two of three, while the Astros were in an early season funk. How did the Twins manage to win 17 games? Pitching is the easy answer. The Twins allowed only 108 runs in 29 games, second best runs per game in the AL. Meanwhile, they scored 134 runs, seventh best, despite early struggles and cold weather. The offensive production was inconsistent until the just-completed home stand where the Twins scored six runs or more in six of the last seven games. That production was fueled by the long ball. The Twins have homered in eleven consecutive games and have already hit nine three-run homers--last year they hit seventeen in the entire season. The pitching started out fantastic. There has been some regression to the mean, but there is still a lot to like. The top three starters have been healthy and effective. Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez have taken the ball and most often completed six or more effective innings. Gray is 4-0 with a microscopic 0.77 ERA, Ryan is 5-0 with a fine 2.81 ERA and after two consecutive subpar starts Lopez is 2-2 with a 4.00 ERA. Lopez has the most innings pitched and strikeouts and his first four starts were outstanding. The bottom half of the rotation has predictably been less effective and now seems dogged by injury. After two decent starts, Kenta Maeda has left his last two starts due to injury and was knocked around before leaving in his last start. Tyler Mahle pitched pretty well, but left his last start and now will be shut down for most of the month of May. The oft-noted rotation depth will be utilized with Bailey Ober already joining the rotation and most likely Louie Varland the next man up. The Twins bullpen has been a top heavy affair. Closer Jhoan Duran wows with his awesome stuff although he's had a few hiccups so far. Jorge Lopez hasn't allowed an earned run, but allowed some hits and an inherited runner in his last two outings, Griffin Jax has been mostly effective although batted ball luck makes his numbers look pretty pedestrian and Caleb Thielbar continues to thrive with one poor outing in an otherwise outstanding month of April. Long relief has done their job, providing lots of innings and pitches in the few one-sided affairs the Twins have played. The problem is the other guys. Jorge Alcala and Jovani Moran were supposed to be reliable bridges to the aforementioned late-inning high-leverage guys and they haven't been effective. Alcala was sent to the minors and Moran looks like he won't be trusted, at least for the near future. Emilio Pagan also provokes anxiety, although he too only had one really bad outing. The Twins' defense is pretty sound so far this year. There isn't a lot of range outside of Taylor, but most everyone is reliable at turning outs into outs. Donovan Solano has played one game at second base and several at first, and he appears substandard. Joey Gallo has adjusted very well to first base. Miranda has been okay, but nothing special at third base. The outfield has played well defensively, with a few exceptions. Positive surprises for the month of April center on the pitching. Lopez, Ryan and Gray have been outstanding on the front end of the rotation--they were projected to be good and they have been better than that. The back end of the bullpen has been as good as advertised, including Jorge Lopez, who seems to have regained the form he had with the Orioles. The Twins have gotten good productivity and good defense from the catchers. Polanco and Buxton are hitting and figure to become the dynamic center of the lineup for a good team. For the position players, health seems to be returning, with Kyle Farmer on the mend and Alex Kirilloff ending his injury rehab. There are concerns that need to be addressed. The front end of the bullpen is unreliable at present and this is one area where the Twins lack depth. Someone needs to step up. Further, if the Twins continue to lean heavily on Jax, Thielbar, JLopez and Duran, they will risk burning out the effective back end guys. Carlos Correa, Nick Gordon and (marginally) Jose Miranda have not been effective hitters. Patience is probably needed for the hitters, with Nick Gordon probably on the bubble for demotion or DFA. The Twins are last in MLB in stolen bases, mostly due to lack of team speed, which also probably is reflected in a lack of range at several positions. In summary, the first month has gone very well. The Twins are now favorites to win the Central division according to betting lines and Fangraphs, but there are still five months of baseball left to secure a place in the playoffs. There are flaws on this team, particularly in bullpen depth. It should be exciting going forward and there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic.

Assuming Farmer for Castro on or about May 9th, here are my position player injury replacement scenarios for the month of May: Kepler, Larnach or Gallo—Kirilloff. Buxton—Kirilloff. Taylor—most likely Kirilloff, perhaps Garlick. Vazquez or Jeffers—Tony Wolters (40-man move required). Gordon—perhaps Castro most likely Kirilloff. Farmer—Castro. Solano—perhaps Kirilloff, most likely Castro. Miranda, Correa—Castro. Polanco—Julien. I assume both Lewis and Celestino will start their rehab assignments on or about 5/10, making them eligible to be recalled in the last couple days of May. Lewis might have a similar situation to Kirilloff, if there is no easy path to playing time when his rehab ends, he could be optioned. Celestino almost certainly gets optioned to St. Paul

Official: Kirilloff activated from the IL and optioned to St. Paul.

Watching Gallo leg out a triple earlier in this homestand, perhaps his sprint speed might be underrated. I won’t dispute the numbers and Gallo might not be a viable choice in center field. We shall see. I think the die is cast that Alex Kirilloff will be optioned unless a position player injury occurs.

How many trades happen in the first half of the season before the trade deadline? Secondly and equally in importance, what is the market for a 30-year corner outfielder who has provided league average offense and above average defense?

I'd call it a successful game for Gordon, but he didn't reach base more than once. The article seems to suggest that he did.

Not questioning Gallo in right at all. Kepler is a defensive asset in right field, particularly at Target Field. I think he’s probably as good or better a right fielder as Gallo, but in center, Gallo might be better.

Don't know if it's best to move three positions instead of two. Kepler is comfortable in right field, Gallo less so. If Kepler is going to play regularly, keep him in right.

It's nice to have a guy who can play both infield and outfield and Nick Gordon has done that acceptably. That said, I take issue with the statement above that Nick is a better fielder than Willi Castro. Rocco prefers Willi at both third base and shortstop, for sure. In a game recently, he put Castro in left when he could have used Gordon. Willi Castro is more versatile and probably a better overall fielder than Gordon. I've said this for a couple weeks--if the Twins are looking at Castro and Gordon for their value as versatile utility guys, Castro is the more valuable player. Nick Gordon demonstrated a hit tool last year that probably plays as a platoon starter with most teams in MLB. If that is a fluke, Nick will have a hard time staying in the major leagues.

Service time manipulations may or may not play in situations. Miranda might have been ready to step in on Opening Day last year, especially based on his preceding year in the minors, but I think service time was factored in to give him no shot in Spring Training. Royce Lewis was sent down, which coincidentally would rule him out from getting early arbitration status, but there were other factors in both cases. I don't think any team wants young players with high ceilings sitting on the bench accruing service time. As far as whether to promote Kirilloff at this point, I would say that as a fit 25-year old, the only concern would be the wrist and if swinging a bat against 95 mph fastballs doesn't bother him, he should be in the major leagues. Paparesta has seemed to say that the medical end of his ramp up is complete. Let him play here and now if he is one of the best 13 position players.

For quite a few reasons, tomorrow's game is pretty substantial. The Twins had a long homestand including two last place teams and if they lose, they'll finish .500. It will also be the last game of the month--17-12 looks and sounds so much better than 16-13. The Twins totally shut down the Royals with RiSP in the opening series of the year. Regression to the mean indicates that KC will be hitting better in those spots this series and that has borne out for sure. They also have been getting hits from guys who looked like easy outs--Oliveros and Pratto--so there were less easy innings so far this weekend. Cleveland lost in extra innings today, so no ground lost and the White Sox might be out of it by May Day.

I don't know if Willi picked up his third base coach or not. Watkins probably had a better idea if a play at third was going to be close. The play was behind Castro, so I do think it would be up to the third base coach. Hitters 4-5 were coming up, so it's not like it was Gordon and Jeffers. Duran wasn't sharp. He usually doesn't have a problem with walks, but he lost two guys (plus an intentional walk) and walking one of the fastest guys in MLB isn't optimum. It was like a leadoff double.

Agree with the bulk of this. For the last week to ten days, I've been bullish on the back end of the bullpen. They struggled, but succeeded on Friday and struggled again today and lost a late lead. I was surprised Rocco used all three of Jax, Thielbar and JLopez on consecutive days, especially since none of them had an easy time on Friday. What does that say about the rest of the BP? Pretty sure it's nothing good. I didn't see anywhere where Winder was designated as long relief. He has worked multiple innings in most, if not all, of his rehab appearances. But if Rocco isn't going to use any of the "front end four" except in lowest leverage, there is a good chance he'll burn out the back end.

Today might be the first game where stolen bases really hurt the Twins. The Royals got stolen base threats on base and took advantage. There will be more, I presume.

Not exactly the same, but I recall Kirby getting credited for a single on a ball that was on home plate. The ball had backspin a rolled backwards onto the plate. The catcher tried to barehand the ball and overran it.

It is all about hitting. If Nick can find the groove as a hitter, he can carve out a role either with the Twins or another club as a platoon player. If their hitting is similar, Willi Castro is the better option as a utility player. Castro is a switch hitter and plays a competent third, short, second and outfield. If Gordon doesn't hit right handers at an above-average level, he really doesn't have much value to the Twins. Gordon is extremely vulnerable to left handed pitching and isn't the Twins' preferred backup at either shortstop or third base, even with Kyle Farmer on IL. There is already an oversupply of left handed hitters in the corner outfield, so getting Nick plate appearances there is unlikely. Michael A Taylor's relative success in center also limits his chances.

I wonder if Kirilloff will play today against the Red Wings. I'd bet against it.

It's been the wrist. He's come up and hit the ball hard and then diminished as the wrist pain has increased, kind of similar to Trevor Larnach--playing with an injury that suppresses good numbers. This probably justifies slow-rolling his recall and the slow ramp-up he has experienced in his rehab.

Maeda to IL and Ober officially recalled and starting this afternoon's game. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/04/twins-place-kenta-maeda-on-il-recall-bailey-ober.html

Woods Richardson had a very nice outing despite taking a loss. Watching him in long relief for the Twins was interesting mostly because of his seemingly unique delivery. I think, at 22, continued development at St. Paul isn't really wasting ammo in games that don't matter.

Agreed, but optioning Castro or DFAing either Gordon or Solano reduces the right handed hitters and defensive flexibility. The most likely scenario is that one of perhaps eight guys goes on the Injured List in the next week or so and Kirilloff is recalled in their place.

I don't think service time issues are the only reason why Alex Kirilloff or any player gets optioned, but it certainly can be a factor. A similar case is Edouard Julien....his current optional assignment will guarantee that he won't be credited with a full year of service time and be under team control through 2029. In another case, the Twins kept an undeniable major league relief pitcher (Duran) on the roster for the entire year and now will have him under team control through 2027.

I am a fan of AK and really believe (as you do) that if healthy, he is the real deal. As the OP points out there are unknowns about his health and the possibility exists that he won't ever reach his full potential. There isn't an easy way to put Kirilloff on the active roster and see how it plays out. Byron Buxton is currently a full-time DH, Joey Gallo has been terrific and both Max Kepler and Trevor Larnach have above-average OPS+ numbers at this point.

I can see it--"Riverbrian, come on down!"