stringer bell

The options to be picked up are either inexpensive or remote. I see less than 1% chance of Farmer's mutual option being picked up. Alcalá's is for minimal money and Jackson will be 37 next year, so I think picking up his option will be unlikely unless he's both good and durable this year.

Ooh, tough crowd. I'm not the biggest Sonny Gray booster, but he had a terrific year last year despite a ho-hum win/loss record. He made adjustments as he went through games and held teams down when he didn't have his best stuff or command. I expect many of those things to regress towards the mean in 2024, but I don't blame him for his won/loss record.

I think that two of four progressing, with one regressing and one staying the same is more reasonable. Pitchers are darn hard to predict, but not many just keep getting better and better. I do agree that the offense should be better than the first half offense of 2023 and that the bullpen is better to start the year.

In listening to Gleeman and the Geek, the Twins' formula is something like 50% of revenue goes toward salary. If the $46M is the actual number, then they would have about $23M to spend. The actual revenue from Diamond/Bally hasn't been disclosed and I wonder if it might not have been less than the 85% that the teams under contract with Diamond/Bally received. The contract was over, there was no obligation for Bally at all. I'm sure we'll find out eventually.

I see Martin as the more likely choice because of his ability to play outfield. As I may have said before in discussing Brian's takes, I would hope this year the handcuff is more like loosely applied electrical tape. Yes, give them days off versus left handers, but don't pinch hit in the third inning of a scoreless game. On the flip side, I doubt we'll ever see Kirilloff pinch hit for Santana or someone like Martin hitting for Castro. Switch hitting is an advantage, even with a perceived weaker side.

Among available free agents, that would be MAT? Or do you think Duvall should be considered a center fielder as well? I hope not, and if this is so, Castro's utility value would be almost completely wasted. AFAIK, Buxton had one injury that never really healed after surgery (knee) and reports are that the latest procedure has resolved that problem. Given his injury history, no one should pencil him in for 140 games in center field, but (huge assumption) if the limiting injury is resolved, I don't see any reason why he can't start half to as much as two thirds of the games in center with a fair amount of DH work. Nobody knows for sure, but the Twins not bringing in a center fielder tells me they have some confidence that Buxton will be there or an internal option (Martin) is capable of backing him up. Kyle Farmer is a good baseball player, but he's turning 34 this year and I think his range has diminished. A year has passed since he was penciled in as the Twins SS and for a game or two, I don't think he's the #1 answer, I'd rather see Castro (at least the 2023 version of Castro). Willi didn't play much shortstop last year, but I don't know if that will be the same this year. At third, again I see no reason for Farmer to be preferred over Castro against right handed pitching, the same for second base against right handers with Julien as the DH. Rocco uses his bench liberally and Farmer certainly will get plenty of starts in the course of a season, but Castro should be considered on the dirt in front of Farmer against right handed pitching.

With the Gordon trade, I now expect Austin Martin to win the fourth OF spot on the team. I haven't seen enough of Martin to know for sure, but I'm thinking he profiles as a better center fielder than Castro. If that's the case, there is much more freedom to move Willi around. From my couch, I'd say I would much prefer to have Castro in the lineup against right handed pitching at any position that Farmer plays and given his defensive metrics from 2023, that would include shortstop. I'm sure Rocco will get plenty of work for Farmer if he's still on the Twins during the regular season, but I'll say again that Castro should be the choice against right handed pitching.

The most animosity I recall in contract/service time in recent years is when the team didn't call Buxton back several seasons ago, which guaranteed an additional year of team control. I don't even know if it is the current Front Office. Money seemed to paper over any hard feelings in that case. I don't know if trading Gordon was a shot across the bow or was a natural consequence of a roster crunch where Nick didn't fit well. I do believe that other players knowing that if you don't play ball in arbitration you're more likely to be traded may be a message they want to send while having plausible deniability. I don't hear all the rumors about players, but someone who is seemingly well-liked by fans and the field staff (Luis Arraez) seems to have raised some hackles with his contract two years in a row. Gordon had very little leverage although he was in arbitration. I don't know if it was in his best interest to go to the mat for $350K.

With the current roster, Castro could see quite a bit of time in the infield. I can see Lewis DHing and Willi at third base or Julien DH and Castro at second. Related, the bar I want for any hitter acquired at this time for 2024 should be a better offensive option than Willi Castro against right handed pitching.

Jackson will be on the Opening Day roster, I believe. He can't be optioned and the Twins have the option on a second year. The club can carry no more than 13 pitchers. It appears with all the relievers the club has accumulated, they will stay at 13 pitchers. The New York Mets GM story notwithstanding, I would expect a lot of use of the IL and the St. Paul shuttle.

Yes.

They have added a lot of depth in the bullpen. St. Paul should also have a full bullpen. I suppose some of the minor league deals they have signed might have opt-outs. BTW, with the addition of Okert, I think Headrick is in the Saints' rotation and Funderburk probably doesn't make the Opening Day roster.

Yes, you’re correct. Okert didn’t reach the majors in 2019, so I’m guessing he didn’t opt out.

Didn't Luis Arraez take the Twins to arbitration too? I think Arraez ruffled the feathers of Miami refusing to settle for the second year in a row. Honestly, I don't know if a trade was certain as soon as Gordon didn't settle, but I don't think it helps job security. If the Twins don't get a starter before the season starts or a right handed hitter who is good enough to get 500 or more plate appearances, I'm ready for the Twins to compete with what they have.

This is a great opportunity and perhaps endorsement for Austin Martin. Reusse's column today indicates that Martin should be good to excellent in center field. I don't know if he is ready for the Big Show, but it is time to find out. If the Twins can get a hitter that starts 130 games, yeah bring it on. If not, let's go with Martin spelling Buxton and maybe getting some starts in left field.

Good luck Nick Gordon! He proved he was a major league player in 2022 and he'll get a lot more at-bats in Miami and he's a Florida guy (Orlando, not Miami). I've thought the Twins were overbalanced for with right handers in the bullpen, so getting Okert looks like a good idea. As far as adding a right handed bat, if the Twins don't get a starter and/or legitimate center fielder, they should just go with Martin.

TV--While the details are not known, the Twins have re-upped with Diamond/Bally for another (and final season). I am one that has been able to watch every Twins game, which is the main reason I have the "Sports Pack" on DirecTV. The reported amount on the television contract is 85% of what the Twins received in 2023, a reduction of perhaps $8M. The prospects for a better number in 2025 are not great unless the Twis profit greatly from streaming. While I am relieved the Twins will be available on TV and I don't have to do anything to see a great majority of their games, it seems to me the long-term outlook is still plenty cloudy. Rights fees are going to fall, perhaps precipitously, and the cost to subscribers on cable is almost certain to jump. How much, a no-blackout streaming contract would generate is open to questions from all sides? How much will the teams get? How much will the streamer charge to subscribe? What are fans going to pay and will they be willing to pay what is charged? It has entered my mind that if things go sideways, overall revenue will drop sharply to the point that players salaries will go down. IMHO, the cost for medium talent is out of hand--give Shohei and Judge their money, but don't pay obscene amounts to okay to good players. Arbitration season contracts bear this out, as well. Injuries--Probably fifteen (maybe more) teams can credibly say today (within days of Spring Training) if they have good health, they will make the post season. I would say that includes the Twins. In 2022, the Twins used the IL second most in MLB. Last year, they were sixth. The difference for the Twins from 2022 to 2023 is that they had major league players available when other players went down. They were six or seven deep in competent starting pitchers and had major league ready players available for position player injuries. Bailey Ober and Louie Varland filled in well and guys like Donovan Solano, Kyle Farmer and Michael A Taylor met or exceeded expectations and got plenty of playing time. Royce Lewis, Matt Wallner and Edouard Julien got their chances as well and cemented themselves into the Twins' 2024 plans. This year, the Twins have added on veteran, Carlos Santana, to the position player mix, but Solano and Taylor are gone and Jorge Polanco was traded. Reinforcements would come from the same system that produced Lewis, Wallner and Julien. Last year, Polanco and Kirilloff started the season on the IL, this year there is no such carryover, but there is less proven depth to cover absences due to injuries, especially the starting pitching rotation. On the subject of injuries, I've seen TD posters question the recoveries of Byron Buxton, Alex Kirilloff, Jose Miranda and newcomer Anthony DeSlafani. and Josh Staumont. Who knows? Maybe none of them will be ready, but there's no evidence either way that they won't be healthy on Wednesday. We shall see. Personally, I doubt the recovery of DeSclafani the most. Bullpen--In contrast to the position player possibilities and the starting rotation, the Twins have added a bunch of veteran relief arms, most of them with options. Josh Staumont, Jay Jackson, Justin Topa and Zack Weiss were added to the bullpen and all are over 30, all under team control for multiple years and all but Jackson have options. They have additional pitchers with big league experience on minor league contracts. I'd say they have redundancy in the bullpen. They shouldn't have much hesitancy to option any of these guys and someone should be effective. The floor of the bullpen has been lifted considerably. Carlos Santana--Yeah, he's 38 and he hasn't been a truly above-average hitter for five years, but he had 23 homers and 86 RBI last year. I can't see a huge falloff in 2024 from this guy. He's historically better against left handed pitching and his floor with the 2024 Twins is as a platoon partner for Alex Kirilloff. Injuries will probably give him plenty of at-bats against right handers. It is an open question if another, younger option might be a better fit. If Santana crashes and burns, I would hope the Twins can cashier him rather than keep him on the roster all season.

I am trying to look at this thing and I’m squinting through management glasses. Is it possible they’re reducing payroll this year so that they can retain all their young players in 2025? It appears they budgeted as if they would get $0 for local TV. Now with perhaps $45M, they should have some money to spend.

We have a rather offhand mention that he had not begun throwing (as of ??) and many here are already putting him on the 60-day IL prepping for TJ surgery. The most recent thing I’ve read (from BBRef) is that only Staumont is a possible 60-day assignment, which would indicate that DeSclafani will be participating in Spring Training. Given his injury in 2023, I am skeptical that non-surgical treatment will get him all the way back, but the Twins must have thoroughly examined his medical records. I don’t think it is worth it to speculate, especially with Spring Training on the horizon, when there will be concrete answers.

The report referred to Gordon as a switch hitter and assumed he would be on the Twins' Opening Day roster. One part is incorrect and the other is premature (IMHO).

With ST just a few days away, I guess we’ll soon find out where DeSclafani is medically. mlbtraderumors.com had a list of possible 60-day IL assignments and didn’t include DeSclafani, but did list Staumont.

It doesn't happen often that a player is better and healthier in his thirties than his twenties, but we can dream. I'm reasonably optimistic that the knee won't be a major issue going forward, but he's had just about every other injury as well. Another long-term issue seemed to be his hip. I don't know if that has been resolved.

Good luck Matt Canterino! It would be great if he and Paddack could replace Gray and Maeda (asking for a lot I know). I suppose just about every team has a wild card like him who could drastically improve their pitching staff. An aside: Reusse may be old and curmudgeonly, but he still is a great writer, especially about baseball. I used to listen to his show on the radio and enjoyed that too.

Gray has had a good career, but I don’t think he’s elite. I think he will allow more long balls and strand a lower percentage of base runners. When most TD posters say “replace Sonny Gray”, they mean replace his contribution from last year—a tall order.

IMHO the problem for Sands is he doesn't have an even average fastball and doesn't have good enough command on his breaking pitches, which are pretty good. If he can make adjustments to make his fastball more effective or get better command with his other pitches, he could be pretty good. He has gotten some really awkward swings off his breaking ball at times, but if he's continually behind in the count, and he's not hitting his spots, he's in big trouble.