ashbury

I'm no longer sold on the concept of Opener, as a particularly desirable outcome for a pitcher's career trajectory. However, it might prove to be a valid waypoint along that trajectory, while deciding what his best use will be. "One time through the lineup, and now and then we'll allow you to try to prove you can do more," would for example constitute a plan that I could see catching on better than "one inning... next!" Doesn't have to come at the beginning of a game, for that matter, nor be literally exactly 9 batters faced - bring someone in to pitch to the bottom third of the lineup, say, and keep him in until goes all the way through again to the #9 hitter, relieving him of course if he struggles.

Garcia earned 0.1 WAR in his stint with the Twins. Extrapolated to a full season of starts, that would be 3.2, well above average. Even more encouraging, his BABIP while with the team was an unsightly .421, relative to his career rate of about .300, suggesting even better results if his luck had been closer to normal. All in all, it's high time the Twins retired Number 24 (maybe a co-retirement recognizing Ryan LaMarre). Oh yeah, my favorite Jaime Garcia moment has to be that one time, it is very, very fair to say.

All men are immortal. Socrates is a man. Therefore Socrates is immortal. By coincidence, I was talking to Socrates, just the other day. He said to watch out for false premises. Doesn't matter whether the rest of the logic is sound or not; the conclusion can be ignored. When you say we're in danger of missing the opening of the season because of the players, in a situation that's manifestly a lockout, none of the rest bears close examination. When you suggest the players are uniquely fortunate, it's an omission and half-truth that likewise invalidates the argument. It's not worth going through point by point. "Look what YOU made me do." That's the mating call of the abusive partner. The owners had the choice whether to initiate a lockout or not. You're in too deep and it's probably too late in your career to reexamine your own allegiances, but your biases can be called out whenever they affect the discussion.

You complain that posters have biases. Yet you use your own evident anti-labor bias to continually frame the discussion. I'm not having it. As for missing part of the season, bear in mind that it's a lockout, not a strike. You want to see the world through a funhouse mirror, fine. I'll call it out when I see it, but I'm not engaging in some pointless back-and-forth. We're very aware of management's position.

Each generation of owner is far more fortunate than the previous.

His days as catcher probably are numbered. Unless the Twins think he's capable of developing into another Nelson Cruz, a rare commodity indeed, once relieved of catching duties, I'd say no to an extension.

I'm pretty much on the pessimistic side with regard to this injury. I expect it to be chronic and to flare up occasionally.

No minor league signing is going to move the needle. Needle-movers get major league contract offers, usually multiple offers from teams wanting their needle moved. And yet, every organization sign minor leaguers every year. Every organization. Every year. This guy, at least, is still a bit young and could be a decent substitute if he starts out hot and a roster vacancy occurs. He's 25 and may be just a later bloomer. He's not some 30-year old with no remaining upside.

Is it? Twins went outside the organization to hire David Popkins from the Dodgers in October. Borgschulte then left for a major league job in November. I hope Popkins really is that much better, because all else being equal there's a lot to be said for promoting from within. On the pitching side, the Twins promoted Luis Ramirez from AA, jumping over McCarthy at AAA who now makes a lateral move to a new organization. Again, I hope the difference is a lot, because you might have been able to keep both by promoting sequentially . BTW I think both the guys who left were FalVine hires, so it's not a matter of clearing out dead wood from the past administration. How easy will this make it to attract new coaching talent for the low minors? It would be interesting to see an interview with either of the guys who left, and try to read between the lines. Oh, and FalVine aren't idiots, so I'm sure there was a lot of thought that went into these decisions.

Outstanding article about some outstanding players who had outstanding seasons near the close of their outstanding careers. Looking just at the headline, though, I felt that Jack Morris was left outstanding in the cold by the article.

... or to insult any pins, in the process.

First, thanks for understanding that my "No" answer to an "or" question was part of the social fabric here. And you deserve a more serious answer than that. Next, I have literally zero interest in Happ or Shoemaker or Gant. Zero. There was a reason Happ signed for the low, low bargain prices of $8M - no team with pennant aspirations bid up his price- and the other two are even less valuable assets. I want to see our vaunted pipeline of pitching prospects come through. You pretty much anticipated the things I would have said - "not ready yet," the risk of harming development if a push to the majors proved premature. If force-feeding the best prospects is a good idea, then why doesn't every first-round draft pick start at AAA and stay there until his numbers demonstrate he should be called up? (Unless you're the Orioles or Pirates, in which case just let them start in the majors since you're not worried about pennant chances.) Where we mainly disagree is your apparent view that bringing up young players is all a crapshoot with no possible guidance as to who is ready and who is not. But they keep stats on minor league games, and while those games aren't of the same quality as in the majors, they are played against opponents who also are trying, and thus you can gain some notion of success. When Joe Ryan got the call to the majors, he had put together a partial season at AAA with an OPS-against of .559 in 66 innings. It's fair to ask what more he could be asked to demonstrate - he was 25 years old to boot, so bring him up, let's have a look. Ditto for Bailey Ober to a lesser degree - an OPS-against in the low .600s at AAA in only 4 games, and he was about to turn 26 years old, so he was about as ready as he'll ever be, probably - give him a shot. It worked out well for both. But neither was on an opening-day big league roster. The situation for the 3 prospects you named is not hopeless, but not the same as those two. Duran is the one I'd be most willing to try. In 2021 his OPS-against at AAA was .742. That's not terrible, but it also doesn't suggest dominance. I use a very rough rule of thumb of .100 points in OPS for each level of promotion (AAA to majors, AA to AAA), and if he had been brought up and pitched to a .842 OPS-against, that might have turned into an ERA in the high 5s. That's not going to draw fans back for second and third looks as the season wears on. I'd like him to pitch some more at AAA and get those numbers even lower. Balazovic and SWR pitched at AA last year, and had .698 and .737 for OPS-against. Not terrible, but not dominant, and at a level of competition one notch lower than for the other player comps. Tack on .200 instead of .100 for jumping 2 levels to the majors, and again we are looking at ERAs that could run in the 6s or worse. One of Bill James's seminal contribution to baseball analytics was to demonstrate that minor league numbers could indeed translate to major league equivalency - individual players will always vary but the overall numbers were pretty coherent. I'm hoping each of these guys tears it up in AAA, and earns a promotion to see whether the skills will play at the major league level. But, when you ask me whether I want the major league retreads you named, on opening day,, or three of these rookies, I ask, isn't there some third and better option? Thus my answer of 'no' was only partly tongue in cheek.

No.

I have so much trouble embracing this. All last season we were assured that a perfect storm of bad luck and injuries had occurred, to torpedo the season for a team expected to contend for the AL Central crown, if not outright favored. Now we are asked to accept that not only was last season not a fluke, but a rebuild is called for and 2022 should be completely punted. We are burning prime years of an offense that we were assured was capable of leading to a World Series - apparently those bats are not valued as much as we were told. We suffered through nearly a decade of irrelevance, for the benefit of a window that turned out to be only 2 years? I've rooted for the team through thick and thin, since moving to the area in 1978 and even after moving away in 1996. But this kind of cynical ratio is the sort of thing that could kill my interest at last, if you are indeed channeling our FO's thinking. "Pie in the sky, by and by."

Nice recap. Thanks.

Very enjoyable take!

Turning SS from an offensive liability to an offensive asset, by signing Carlos Correa, would be going all-in. I'm not prepared to use that term on a good but no longer elite corner bat.

Exactly. The off-season isn't over, but the Twins saw the lockout staring them in the face, and they so far have spent like they're Pittsburgh. Someday MLB will create a trophy for the most wins per dollar, or the best performance by a mid-tier market. Until then, we go for the Commissioner's Trophy as World Series champ, and nothing less.

Q How many legs does a dog have if you call his tail a leg? A: Four. Calling a tail a leg doesn't make it a leg. Terry Ryan never called his 2013 rebuild a rebuild either. Didn't change the situation. You could tell what it was by the moves - the Clete Thomas Era said it all. I'd be more enamored of the vaunted pitching pipeline that is supposed to be our salvation, if the national prospect rankers out there had our guys higher on their lists. They don't have their knives out for our Twins, and they see both teams when they scout one of our guys - what they seem to be saying is, yeah, maybe, on most of our arms. And our list of guys contains a lot of 24-25 year olds who still are only knocking at the door. Our guys look like they could pitch in the majors, but maybe not stand out. We need to hit big, on more than just a couple, if this strategy is going to pan out. If not, where are our championships actually going to come from?

Best statement of the dilemma I've seen in a while.

Who do you propose hires this person?

Wait... unless... we got this guy: In that case, I am intrigued by the outside-the-box thinking.

Chances are this is a faulty assumption. Revenue isn't simply a switch you flip to 'On'.

"Acquire Jake Cave's backup." Another checklist item marked Complete.