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Everything posted by ashbury
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The Argument for Trading Jorge Polanco
ashbury replied to Matt Braun's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
In my small-sample of watching Julien in two games at the AFL in October I was unlucky enough (or forgetful enough) to not recall seeing him suitably tested for his fundamental defensive skills. I thought his demeanor on the field was excellent - very focused and all-business - but that says nothing about his range. He did react well to a lousy double-play throw from Martin, managing to keep a toe on the bag to achieve one out on the play; that's a play a good first-baseman might also make, hint hint. Anyway it looks like Julien's bat will eventually play in the majors, if not already, but the scouting reports on his defense seem uniformly negative and I don't have any of my own rinky-dink scouting insights to contradict that. I don't much care for Arraez as a full-time second baseman either, and I don't know of some other heir apparent if Polanco were gone. Gordon maybe? Trading Polanco would be part of a tear-down in the absence of a clear replacement. Yes, probably he could fetch something in trade; but if the Twins were to decide to move on from him (health or whatever), other teams would have the same rationale, and then the trade return would be lowered. As others have said, the arguments for why another team would want him and give up a great deal of value would be the arguments for why he brings value to the Twins as a player and not a trade chip. As I said in another thread, I think the topic is moot anyway, due to what seems like a pretty strong signal from the team that he's coming back for 2023. -
How Big is the Twins Catching Problem?
ashbury replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The typical plate appearance consists of several pitches on each of which the batter must make a decision that helps reveal his skill. League average is just under 4. So those 103 at-bats contain a lot more useful information about the batter than do 103 SB attempts (or fielding chances in general).- 62 replies
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How Big is the Twins Catching Problem?
ashbury replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Sure, it's great to have a guy who can finish the game, or even be pressed into service for a game or two over a short period if the other catcher has a relatively minor owie. Positional flexibility is always good. But I doubt they view Farmer as a backup catcher, and you do need to have a plan for what-if two of your better catchers are on the actual IL for overlapping periods. That's the break-glass scenario I had in mind. If Farmer turns out to be so adept behind the plate that you don't need a third or fourth guy, well, that's an unplanned bonus I guess.- 62 replies
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My one complaint about Jim was his sometimes tin ear for speaking in public. I'm hoping young 40-year old Joe has taken significant lessons in public relations so that when he speaks for the team it can be an inspiration. I want the franchise to be successful, and good PR gets scoffed at but is underrated.
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The ability go right up close and take photos is just one of the appeals of the AFL. Spring Training in Ft Myers is similar in that respect. You can go right down to the front row if you're willing to be up the baseline a little, and if your camera is compact enough you can poke the lens through the protective netting, and with just a little zoom you have a photo of the on deck batter's left nostril if that's your thing. ?
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How Big is the Twins Catching Problem?
ashbury replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
For me the ideal 40 man has 3 catchers: a really good one if you can, an experienced backup who perhaps complements the starter in some specific way, and then a young guy who is promising but hasn't established himself but has minor league options so you can stash him at AAA in readiness for when one of the older guys is injured. A fourth veteran on a minor league contract, break glass in emergency, completes the preparation for the season; having that guy as your third catcher is begging for roster trouble since you can't send him back down at will. IMO we're missing the first two guys. It's a leap of faith to think Jeffers is your number one, especially in the absence of another prospect knocking on the door. He's ideally my number three, and let him fight his way back up. The FO is going to have to give up salary and/or prospect capital, to cover catcher next season unless they want to admit they're not really contending.- 62 replies
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That 11 am starting time for the third game of the home stand definitely ensured crowd noise would not be a factor. And people do like the seats behind home plate since you don't often get those at a major league game. So that photo just before the bottom of the first does present an unusual look that I didn't particularly notice until I posted it.
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The Twins are jointly owned by brothers Jim, Bill, and Bob. Jim has been the managing partner of the Twins, while Bill is better known for working in the movie industry, and Bob seems to have concentrated on overseeing the family's other holdings. They seem to own some things individually and other things (such as the Twins) jointly. I'm sure this is a vast simplification of their approaches to the various businesses. Joe is Bob's son. I doubt very much that he can summarily decide to spend in a way that doesn't show a profit. Nothing in the announcements seemed to indicate a change in ownership share either. I don't think I've ever seen mention of whether the offspring of Carl's three children have some kind of official stake; that may come down simply to the respective will when the three pass away, and if they have unequal numbers of offspring then things may eventually become uneven. For the present, an owner's son now has a highly responsible job in the organization.
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Minnesota Twins Extension Candidate: Joe Ryan
ashbury replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Conversely he and his agent will know a lot more about his market value. If you still want him a year from now it could cost millions more. -
What Defines Success for Byron Buxton in 2023?
ashbury replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The incentive clauses in his contract more or less spell out the definition of success for any of his seasons to come. -
The Glendale Desert Dogs had several representatives from the Twins' farm system. Denny Bentley, Francis Peguero, Jon Olsen and Ryan Shreve were the pitchers, and the position players were Alex Isola, Austin Martin and Edouard Julien. Here's a few photos from my trip in late October. For two of the three games I was joined by the illustrious USAFChief. Driving there meant going through some dusty desert miles. Here is one of the denizens of the town of Beatty NV where I quartered for the night at the picturesque Atomic Inn. I arrived in time for the evening game on the 27th. Unfortunately the game itself wasn't much, from a Twins fan's point of view. Austin Martin played CF and led off, but his 0-4 ledger was redeemed only by a walk. I don't recall him really being tested on defense, but he handled the routine plays (which mainly involved picking up the ball after base hits). Denny Bentley and Francis Peguero both appeared and neither one really shone - Bentley went 2 hitless innings while walking 4 and striking out 4, while Peguero gave up 3 unearned runs in his inning of work, striking out 2 but also surrendering 3 hits that "didn't count" for earned runs in light of the third baseman's error. I didn't take any photos of that 9-6 loss to the hated Salt River Rafters. Probably just as well. Friday's game was more entertaining, and I devoted myself to snapping some shots. Jon Olsen had a very fine afternoon on the mound, going 4 innings against the hated Surprise Saguaros and giving up only 1 hit while striking out 4 and walking nobody. Olsen's had some bad luck with injuries after his college career and thus is a bit of a late bloomer as a 25-year old at high-A Cedar Rapids, but hopefully may have opened some eyes with his AFL showing. Here he is in a couple of shots. Edouard Julien batted leadoff and played second base. He got a hit and scored, and also later drove in a run. I don't recall any particular plays of note in the field for him. Here's a pretty representative example of his swing. While Austin Martin was not in the lineup, he did coach at first base some of the time. Here he is with his ubiquitous head scarf underneath the helmet. Alex Isola was catcher in this game. He had an annoying habit of lobbing the ball back to the pitcher. I would love to know the details on that, such as whether it was just a temporary expedient for some reason. He did throw out a runner at second base during the game. Here's a shot of his leg kick when at bat. On to Saturday's game, which was an 11 am affair to allow AFL fans to move from ballpark to ballpark and see a triple-header. The hated Mesa Solar Sox won this one 10-3. In this game Martin and Julien hit leadoff and second, and were the double play combo. So I was very interested in watching them interact. Here they are getting ready for their turns at bat. Here they are in the field getting ready for a play. Unfortunately the only interesting play was a routine double-play ball. Martin bollixed up the throw so that Julien was pulled off the bag and did well to get even the single out at second base. No photo of that. Back to the hitting. Here's Julien taking a cut. Were any batters hit by a pitch in this game, you ask? Why yes. Here is one. No damage done, though. Peguero got another inning of work in this game. I neglected to get any photos of him this time either. Unfortunately, he gave up another run on a walk and a hit. So not a good showing by him. Ryan Shreve did not appear while I was there. Well, that was my weekend. A nice excuse for 3 days of great weather instead of the colder snowier conditions in northern Nevada.
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Year 6 of this FO's tenure, and "poor mechanics" is still in our vocabulary? Quick, better hire an Assistant Director of Elbow Flexion!
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Analyze This: Jose Abreu Is the Bat Minnesota Needs
ashbury replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
If Abreu had been on the 2022 Twins with those stats, he'd be just another guy we'd be complaining about not coming through. And rightly so. The Twins for the season got 83 RBI from the #3 spot in the batting order. The vaunted Abreu got 75, in almost as many chances; his RBI rate was lower. (The Dodgers, if you want to aim high, set the 2022 benchmark at 110, while the average team got just shy of 90.) He's the wrong guy to be making a righteous stand about. -
Analyze This: Jose Abreu Is the Bat Minnesota Needs
ashbury replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The projections at FG and b-r.com are for 20-22 HR this coming season, with of course no defense to sweeten the package. I don't think I spend 8 figures a year on that. -
Let's Worry About the Lineup This Winter
ashbury replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
As of now, not on the roster. https://www.mlb.com/twins/roster/40-man- 27 replies
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Let's Worry About the Lineup This Winter
ashbury replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Cleveland barely had anybody digging anything, with total attendance of 1,295,870. ?- 27 replies
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- carlos correa
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I want instant gratification and I want it NOW!
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Free shipping, I trust? I'm not inking one of these deals, only to get socked with priority shipping charges.
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Rumor: Toronto Rumored to be Shopping Danny Jansen
ashbury replied to Doctor Gast's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Up the middle talent is always expensive. Multiple bidders competing. I don't expect a bargain to be obtained. Jansen looks like could be the sweet spot for the Twins, value versus what they are willing to give up. -
Which Frontline Starter Should the Twins Go Get?
ashbury replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
That's what the Report button is for, my friend. :)- 52 replies
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How Will Kyle Farmer Fit in for the Twins?
ashbury replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
It's possible for up the middle talent to be "superfluous", but the Twins aren't there yet. I see this as an evolutionary move, certainly not revolutionary. -
Glad you specified median. Had you said mean, USAFChief would drag us up above 100. As it is, I'm still one of the young guys. Yippee!

