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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    Ha, one more Mack Jones nugget. While reading a TD article about Max Kepler, I scrolled down on Max's b-r.com page, and glanced as his most-similar players. For whatever it's worth, his ninth best comp is.... Mack Jones. Don't know whether that makes Jones's case stronger or weaker, TBH. (Jackie Brandt's most-similar players? Chuck Hinton, Tommy Agee, Mike Devereaux.)
  2. ashbury
    He's got the bat. Prior to 2023, he put up two full seasons worth of work maintaining a .874 OPS. That's a first baseman's production, over a long enough time (1066 plate appearances) to not be Small Sample Size. Trouble is, those "two full seasons" as I called it were spread across four years, 2019-2022. He can't stay on the field. We all know that. It's not a point of dispute. But "when healthy" (those dreaded words), those numbers say he is a strong hitter. Heck, in 2023 he started out strong again, then suffered a sequence of debilitating damage that he tried to play through and it wrecked his season. The attempt to keep him healthy by DHing him was a complete failure. I don't want that repeated. He needs to play CF, not 1B, not DH - and not because he doesn't have the chops on offense, but because staying out of CF is not a successful strategy for him. I'm not one who generally tries to be tough guy and tell players what to do. But in this case, my stance would be that if he can't go as a centerfielder, then he sits. If he has to sit for multiple days, then he goes on the IL. If he's on the IL all the time, then at some point a negotiated buy-out is in the interest of both player and team. He's about my favorite Twin, so I don't say any of this out of animosity. But just say no to first base.
  3. ashbury
    Big Papi II. Book it.
  4. ashbury
    Jones's batting numbers at AAA look pretty enticing though. It looks like that '64 squad was blessed with good health for all the regulars. If that were to change, I could see Jones being a real asset as a fourth outfielder. The real Jackie Brandt started to slide in his hitting performance after the '64 season. That's another reason to not sleep on having a guy like Mack Jones to step in for a leading role. I loves me some good defense up the middle, but there is a lower limit on how many runs any defender can save, while there is no upper limit on runs a player can score. Can't argue with success and Brandt clearly contributed to a world championship. But a front office can't be complacent, and CF looks (with the benefit of real-world hindsight of course) like a potential trouble spot. You're set in RF for a while, however. Have I ever mentioned that OOTP is an absolute blast?
  5. ashbury
    Because each level is harder the the previous one, this is certainly not the pattern you would expect. My own rule of thumb is to subtract .100 points of OPS when moving up a level, but human performance isn't nearly as neat and clean as some amateur's rule of thumb. When the unexpected happens, I like to look at BA on Balls In Play. Typical players run around .300 in that stat, so when BABIP is really low, .217 at AA for Prato, or really high, .387 at AAA for him, it seems wise to make allowances, Some call it luck, I call it non-reproducible results, but either way the guy was presumably the same hitter throughout but somehow the balls were maybe going right at fielders the first half of his season, while a few more than normal fell in for him safely during the second half. Presumably the organization's "eye test" was telling the FO that he was performing soundly, otherwise the mid-season promotion would make little sense. They say a player is never as bad as he seems when things are going badly, and never as good as when things go well. The "real" Anthony Prato is likely somewhere between the stat lines of his two half-seasons. Odd, yes. And perhaps all that it is.
  6. ashbury
    Would Keirsey provide any certainty?
  7. ashbury
    Oh, this just gets better and better. The same program as Teddy Ballgame, you say? Executive Summary: Chief's a head case. (I always knew it.)
  8. ashbury
    So the original Chief from 1961 has already kicked the bucket at 99+, and had to be reinstated? Meanwhile I'm a young and spry 37-year old who will live forever, plus with a well-deserved WS title on my resume already. Sweet. Flags Fly Forever.
  9. ashbury
    Unless the team has decided there is something wrong with his makeup (an insight we'll never get until possibly long after the fact), I continue to think Larnach can be an overall above average corner outfielder, with a plus bat and so-so fielding. It seems to me that his struggles at the plate when in the majors have coincided with injury. I guess that would be another thing the team might decide will never get better, if they think he'll be plagued by muscle pulls and strains perpetually. But absent that, I would not like to give up on him for only small return.
  10. ashbury
    Oh yeah, I remember now. That was a long time ago.
  11. ashbury
    Flip side is that none of the outside talent brought in exactly set the world on fire in 2023. Maybe the lesson, with Joey Gallo exhibit A as evidence, is that the FO ought not to be trusted to spend one penny on anyone not already on the roster.
  12. ashbury
    What became of Mack Jones? I thought he was a great rule-5 pickup, but I didn't spot him in any of the displays.
  13. ashbury
    Reputation: Inexperienced. I'm devastated. Personality: Personable. I'm flattered. Age: 37. I'm thrilled.
  14. ashbury
    There's a lot to like about this year's Twins roster of course, but the OP touches on an aspect that seems like the Bad Old Days during Terry Ryan's second reign, and that is the "and if nothing else, he can DH" mantra. That philosophy if not kept in check can lead in games against NL teams to Josh Willingham playing left and Ryan Doumit playing right field, and I use that verb advisedly in both instances. Those old rosters had hardening of the arteries, and unfortunately having Mitch Garver here in 2023 or going forward would feed into that. Not his fault, just not a good fit.
  15. ashbury
    Half's still a lot of course.
  16. ashbury
    Believe what you wish, but it's only half.
  17. ashbury
    Unless the contract was written in some exceptional way, the no-trade clause includes having another team claim him on waivers. The clause is there to protect the player's interest, not simply to hamstring the team in certain ways but leave loopholes for others.
  18. ashbury
    Then Hank Aaron would be the third logical guess - he and Willie and Frank are nearly interchangeable in terms of their odds. After that, there are many excellent players who could have gotten hot; I'll double up my guesses and suggest Tommy Davis, after Hank.
  19. ashbury
    Frank Robinson?
  20. ashbury
    Did any of these video clips demonstrate his arm from CF? My impression is that it's going to be deemed unsatisfactory at the major league level.
  21. ashbury
    Yeah, that tracks pretty well with reality.
  22. ashbury
    And now you know the special importance of Rick Monday! (Other than being a good player, I mean.)
  23. ashbury
    What happened to those '61 Yankees? No M&M Boys taking a run at Ruth's record? "Your" Braves really blundered leaving Mack Jones available for Rule 5. Real World Jones played for the Real World Braves in '61. Niekro may be a reach at his age, but a good get if he can stick, obviously. (Really sticking my neck out about a future HoFer, there.)
  24. ashbury
    A reasonable approximation of his age. Hoping for the best. You do realize that one other aspect of reality they've folded into this game is that the older the owner, the more likely they are to croak*. Don't know if they'll let Chief get close to seeing a World Series. BTW, what's up with a home town of Boston? I trust that Fictional Chief will use that top-4 farm system as nature intended - to trade for major league talent! * One thing I like to do when my meddling owner pisses me off is to go into the editor and change his age to 99, and let nature take its course.
  25. ashbury
    What, are you saying I'm old? I guess I'm curious about the differences between 1961 and 1962, in which essentially the same team went from bad to good. Lots of incremental changes, rather than a few guys who suddenly came out of nowhere.
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