tony&rodney

Baseball isn't random. The teams that survive a 162 game season to qualify for the playoffs are all good. Any of the teams are capable of having combinations of players perform throughout the grind of the postseason leading them to the World Series. All teams use analytics similarly to an extent. The makeup of the teams differ and success is a result of the athletes performances. I think you object to the three true outcomes plan for offense which is more a function of strategy suited to personel than just analytics. Yes, I prefer using all options and more contact than a parade of strike outs by the offense but it isn't so simple as just hit the ball as we have seen this postseason.

Pretty exciting to have two teams that have worked so hard to turn around their records in just two years playing in the World Series. The playoffs this year have shown how important getting a place at the table can be for any team. When someone has desires that the Twins need to do much more than just win the AL Central, it is good to remember that a historically great team like Atlanta can lose in their first round of games. Baseball has such a small difference between most teams that whomever peaks or gets hot has a shot at reaching the World Series. Arizona has the third worst record of any team to ever make it to the World Series. The competition is fierce in the playoffs and while some teams seem to ooze talent and have superior tough players, the reality is that any team can go on a run. Just a month or so ago, both Texas and Arizona looked very beatable to a number of teams. The Twins swept the Diamondbacks and defeated the Rangers in 5 out of 7 games. Now the World Series features two exciting teams who have bounced back from their failures of two years past. It could be a really fun series to watch.

Running should be used more often as situations present themselves. The Twins definitely rn more this season. Of course, a more athletic and faster team will be more likely to run. The team also needs to consider the occasional sacrifice bunt. There are times this is a sound plan for scoring runs. Finally, scoring runs by shortening the swing when a runner is on third base with less than two outs adds wins. Sacrifice flies, ground outs, or via a safety squeeze, the Twins can still find ways to improve their offense. Stealing bases is just one way.

There are probably some players that could be acquired via trade that would help the Twins but I'm having a hard time finding ones that are actually available. Lars Nootbar would be a nice addition but unlikely to be moved. Free agent signings are nice but Cody Bellinger is really it besides the DH market. Do the Twins add a guy like Bellinger? Does anyone see the Twins signing an expensive DH or Teoscar Hernandez? I'm not sure that happens. The Twins did fair in the postseason. The biggest disappointments for me were Jeffers and Wallner. I like them both though. They are still gaining experience and learning. So answering the post, I'm not adding much offense to what is already on the roster. Yes, the roster is good enough. Juan Soto would be a nice addition, right?

Every time I look over these lists I keep landing on Montgomery as the only guy to add for big money and Montas or Severino as guys on a one year prove-it deal. The playoffs have changed the numbers perhaps. I would be surprised if Snell, Nola, and Montgomery aren't looking for $25M per year and 6 years too. The month of November should set in motion what the current market will bear. The idea of adding a top starting pitcher is so appealing but the numbers may be prohibitive for the Twins.

The Twins have position player depth, which is good, and they would like to keep that depth. Thing is, starting pitching prices will be high and there is a pretty dire lack of position players available via free agency or trade. The Twins will check in on some starting pitchers and find the bidding too steep. This leaves the Twins looking for teams that find value in their position players. All of Jeffers, Kirilloff, Julien, Lewis, Wallner will draw some interest as will veterans Kepler, Polanco, and Farmer. Additionally, a few teams may see Brooks Lee or another couple of prospects worthy of a conversation. Conversely, the Twins could essentially stand pat and count on solid returns from injured players, a rebound or two from players that were disappointing this year, and increased production from the young guys who led the team in the second half of the year. The Twins may also feel that their AA and AAA players may step in and help as needed. Two directions are possible for Falvey. Fans (me/others) may be asking for additions to the roster but the pickings are slim unless they wade into the deep end. I'm not at all sure what to think about the cost or baseball value of guys like Maeda, Severino, Montas, or a couple of others. Trades or ride the current talent seems to be the play. We could all make two rosters: one that just uses what is available and another includes individual ideas for trades.

David Festa needs another year of experience in AAA, but he isn't a depth piece. If he can make similar improvement next year as he has in the last couple of years, Festa can fit right into the middle of a rotation. Marco Raya is likely two years away. The Twins need to listen to all offers. I believe that only Jenkins and Lewis are off limits. There are options and similar to last winter the Twins only need to find a partner to pull off a worthwhile trade.

I don't know if this is a bot, but the comment certainly lacks any knowledge of baseball as a base. I believe the phrase "old-time manager" is a reference to Dusty Baker, in which case one should understand this is easily one of the most respected people in MLB today. "Eye-for--an-eye" has been so rare that I cannot recall the last clear retaliation in baseball; it's nearly gone.

Duran is always going to be one pitch away from an elbow or shoulder injury, which is concerning for him and the Twins. Relief pitchers are getting paid handsomely and it might take another handful of millions to get ink from Duran. A $5 million signing bonus might be one way to keep the yearly salaries in the range you suggest. Relievers are risky but Duran is a good one. Move the guarantee to $40 million and I believe it can be done. Whether this is a good idea or not is up to Falvey. The fans mostly say yes to using someone else's money. Duran at the back end of games is a big deal though. Do it.

There is quite a bit of mutual respect common in baseball today. The field coaches and managers as well as players know they could be on a different team next year. If you look around the game today you can see a number of major superstars who were traded or left their former teams via free agency. But, yes I agree with you as do the players.

Abreu is a young pitcher. There are few players in baseball today who care at all about how a player celebrates, unless they specifically and aggressively address another player in an attempt to ridicule.

Luplow does not get a 40 spot, Alcala does. Gordon may be placed on the 40 person now but dropped later.

Good work Nick. Do we make our guesses a week after the World Series? Small detail - minimum for 2024 is $740,000.

Maybe a loose analogy is needed here. Camargo is serviceable as a catcher to be used in case of injury in the same manner that Simeon Woods Richardson or Cole Sands are serviceable as starting pitchers in case of injury. Christian Vazquez is a clear MLB catcher in the same manner in which Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober are clear MLB starting pitchers. A team can do better but a team can do much worse too. The Twins are lucky to have two good MLB catchers.

There is an assumption that Baker knew he had already been ejected and if he actually did know, he wanted to direct a little more wisdom towards the umpire chief. It seems highly unlikely that Baker was putting LeClerc in the freezer. Only Abreu and Maldonado know if that pitch was meant to hit Garcia. It seems doubtful from a baseball strategy perspective. MLB reacted with a little bit of venom perhaps. It is unclear right now whether an appeal will be filed on the two game suspension. If there is any proof that Abreu threw at Garcia with intent to hit him, then the suspension should have been more serious than just two games. Maybe something unfolds over the offseason but I doubt it. I'm a Twins fan first and then an American League fan, but really just a baseball fan. The nonsense about the Astros cheating is as tired as the blame Barry Bonds for everything craziness while ignoring everyone else who began, were involved in ,a nd carried on the entire steroids debacle. I understand the nonsense and cheating undertaken by the Astros and didn't like it. I also believe numerous teams were involved in similar shenanigans and that MLB was privy to all of it and just turned their backs until reporters returned definitive evidence and corroboration. Let's face it, Manfred is a stain on the game far worse than others.

Catcher discussion #2 comes to the same conclusion - the Twins are lucky to have two decent catchers. Additionally, Falvey needs to make sure Camargo signs another contract. Pitchers like decent catchers. Not much else to say.

My favorite ploy for handling stocks. Always worth it because my wife gets excited by the sameness of my financial acumen.

In fairness to the Twins, the team was better in the postseason than Atlanta, a team lauded as among the top three all time great offenses in MLB history. The Twins also did better with the bats than Baltimore, Tampa Bay, and the Dodgers as well. Any team can wind up losing a series against some good pitching. Pablo Lopez made the Astros struggle mightily. The Diamondbacks are a pretty pedestrian team but if they win tonight they will suddenly be getting plaudits and praise beyond all reason. The playoffs are fun and it isn't practical to demand victory. It is reasonable to expect good performance. Julien and Correa were terrific in the postseason as was Lewis. Farmer did fine in limited duty. I want to see better hitting too but am really having a hard time identifying someone who is both a good bet to perform and is a sensible acquisition. Ohtani? Sure, but what are the odds? Soto? Is he even available and at what cost of players sent back to San Diego? It is a down year for bats and it may be quite difficult to pry away a decent piece of lumber from any team. BTW, the trade for Mahle was highly praised nationally and favored by an overwhelming number of folks on Twins Daily. Unfortunately, Mahle hurt his shoulder and then his elbow too. Bad luck for him and the Twins. To close, all of Castro, Solano, and Farmer played significant reserve roles for the Twins and were solid contributors to the season's success. Yes, to any magical bats able to be added. Now .... how?

I believe that Falvey already made that decision for us.

Why does it sound like you pine for the days of Denny Hocking at shortstop?

200+ innings are a fair number to assess a successful season. The manner in which teams restrict pitcher usage makes reaching 200 innings a task for any pitcher in the game today. Only five in 2023, eight in 2022, and four pitchers in 2021 were able to throw 200 innings. If Pablo Lopez can throw 200+ innings in 2024, we can expect a high level of excellence and success in his starts because pitchers who struggle in innings 4-7 are lifted for a reliever pretty quickly. Pablo is a great pitcher with a fine repertoire of pitches that he knows how to use and avoiding the IL is a huge must for him and the Twins. If we can look through his stats at the end of the 2024 campaign and see 200+ innings, all other numbers will fall into the plus-plus category. Health is crucial.

The future is coming and the Twins have as good a chance or better at winning the AL Central than any other team. The club does need to continue with changes, however, to bring in a couple of players that will improve the team and solidify a hold (for now) on the division. You will recall that last April both Cleveland and Chicago were seen as more likely to win the AL Central as the Minnesota Twins. Talent, depth, and improvement are important for continued success.

No, Christian Vazquez is not too expensive for 2024. Starting pitching is critical to any winning team and then it is necessary to have someone to catch the ball. Until the Twins have someone better in their system to promote and another guy as a backup in case of an injury, Vazquez stays. Camargo is the backup now. Perhaps after next season Noah Cardenas rises to become a worthwhile MLB catcher. No more Sanchez or Garver guys behind the plate says every pitcher ever.

Royce Lewis seemed like he was being groomed for CF. The ACL injury, which had (really) nothing to do with playing centerfield changed that for him and the Twins. Of course people change their minds but Falvey and Baldelli were pretty emphatic that Lewis is a third baseman. Not totally insignificant, Boras has stated that Lewis is a superstar infielder in the making. So I think that ship has sailed, no matter what seemed possible looking at the Twins personnel from our perspective. Jorge Polanco is still a very good baseball player. What team is going to trade a valuable player for Polanco? While it is possible that there is some future star playing in the Dominican Summer League available in return for Jorge, I doubt the Twins are adding to their farm system by moving a guy like Polanco right now. The rumors of Polanco's demise may be a few years away. It is very possible that Polanco is added to a prospect or a young controlled player as the second Twins player in a trade. Louie Varland has the potential to be better than both Ryan and Ober. He pitched for a small D2 school, Concordia in St. Paul, before just two full minor league seasons before this past year. Varland is relatively inexperienced. He needs some refinement of his pitches but more importantly needs to throw all of his pitches with the same conviction that he throws his fastball. While Varland was dazzling in his relief role this year, I believe he is a strong 6-7 inning starting pitcher. The TV/media revenue stream is important for the Twins revenue. Will a deal be in place before the Twins need to be negotiating with free agents and conducting discussions on potential deals with other teams? Without a deal in place or reasonably sure on the horizon, the player payroll is unlikely to return to $155 million for 2024. A deal for a strong pitcher would be nice but seems more of an outside wish because of the money. A payroll around $150 million for next season sure would be sweet though.

There are risks and the Twins cannot afford to be risk adverse. When we began to hear small murmurs that Miami had some interest in a Twin last Fall, I was all over the idea and didn't really care who we traded if the return was notable. This offseason there should be additional opportunities, but it isn't clear if any teams see a player(s) from the Twins that is an object of desire. The Twins can afford to trade any player that makes their team better. Falvey needs to identify a player or two that can be reasonably acquired. While it would be decent to add via the free agent market, I believe the pitchers will be too expensive for the Twins and the position player options are limited to Cody Bellinger. A high risk trade for Soto seems very unlikely but he would be a difference maker and hold a spot for a miracle-like rise from Emmanuel Rodriguez. Yes, the Twins need to add talented bats (and pitchers). but it will be a tall task. I'm hopeful.