tony&rodney

Watkins made the mistake when Solano was out at third base. He held him up and then waved him to go.

The baseball season is very long, which I like. Last year the Twins were looking pretty decent in late July and were swallowed alive by August and September. This year the team is playing poor baseball and treading water at a .500 mark. The negatives are glaringly apparent as Nick Nelson so adroitly pointed out, and the Twins are frustrating right now to their fans and to themselves. The positives are strong starting pitching and the hope that the talent on the team can get it together and make a sustained run. A decent winning streak could be the tonic needed for the players to shelve their doubts and move forward with confidence. The Twins are trying to hold the middle ground of keeping all of their experienced players and thinking that a return to some past successes is possible. It may be possible. More likely, the front office may need to swallow a contract or two and let the fortunes of 2023 play out with a few younger guys.

This topic draws so many strong opinions and we get repeatedly told by some that an out is an out, making a strike out the same as a pop up and better than hitting into a double play. The thing is that this is only true out of context. If Farmer hits into a double play with the bases loaded the Twins have a run in and a runner on third base with two out. In this case with the infield playing back a double play is better than a strike out. BTW, I agree with the idea that a batter should get an RBI when a run scores on a double play. Additionally, it is actually possible to have a two strike approach. We actually saw Byron Buxton take such a swing (awkwardly) when he hit a fly ball to right field in his only at bat where he both cut down on his swing and coincidently did not strike out last Saturday. Gallo always swings from his heels and can only hit the ball if the pitcher puts it in the narrow path of that severe upper cut. At this point he would not fare any better versus a Senior Mens League pitcher with pinpoint control. There is nothing wrong with swinging as hard as one can but there is also a time when the batter must make an attempt to put the ball in play.. The Tigers used two pitchers in the recent series who have strike out "stuff". All of the others have been hit hard or soft, but hit often thus far this year. The idea that strike outs never matter is plain silly. While extra base hits are certainly valuable, not putting the ball in play a third of the time will never be successful on a sustained basis. What is more curious to me is why this was not addressed in Spring Training or actually in a club or system wide meeting immediately following last season. I do think that the Twins are discussing this now, but I don't know.

Sadly. Joey Gallo is a 2022 Dodger/Yankee player. He seems to really be working but it ain't happening for him. Buxton? A few oddities by any stretch were pinch hitting for Kirilloff, although he is also struggling, and the inexplicable pinch hit appearance by Buxton for the weak hitting Vasquez, a player who would likely at least flip the ball to right field. So many odd occurrences though, such as Solan not going to second base (made no difference) and then not scoring on a ground ball to centerfield (again, just makes it 5-6 so no difference?) when he had to run when the ball hit the ground right off the bat. Baseball is a long season but the players often seem disconnected and unfocused. How many outs are there? Where do I go on every play? Poor routes, transfers, and sailing the ball home from short left field. Lately there have been too many misplays to count and it may be fair to say that 85 wins is too ambitious for the Twins in 2023. Luckily (maybe), there is another game tomorrow.

Mauer was severely diminished due to the concussions yet still played a good first base and could hit. Mauer no longer was the catcher or extra base threat yet he never fell to automatic out DH only status. I feel real bad for whatever Buck is going through right now. I haven't lost all hope that his career is over but I also have no idea what is going on with him. It seems like an IL to regain some strength is needed, but without any first hand knowledge it is only a guess that Byron is even injured or unhealthy in any way, shape, or form.

Yes, it is the offense that needs to turn it around. The pitchers are starting to feel the stress of always trying to throw shutouts. You could see how careful Varland was pitching in a 1-1 game. This leads to problems, although Varland still needs to make the pitches.

Can we all just dispense with any idea that Gallo is still a good defender. Clearly the Tigers had zero respect for his skills.

Polanco has been fine, although he has been pretty crippled the last few years. Kepler and Buxton have each had one good year and a host of glimpses of their talent. Sano? Too bad.

Both Farmer and Kepler reacted very poorly on that carom off of the concrete. Kepler has played outstanding defense out there and made an uncharacteristically poor judgment. Farmer should have been on a dead run as soon as that ball hit the wall. Kirilloff has to be the cutoff.

I'm not concerned at all about Ober's physical condition or injury. While it is true that he has had an assortment of injuries in the past, Bailey is a very big strong man. His pitch counts have been very conservative and he has not been stretched in any game thus far this year. Ober should get another 15 plus starts this year and if he maintains a solid routine between starts he would end the season with around 150 innings. Throwing strikes and avoiding stressful long innings is the key and he has done that quite well this season to date. Ober is not a guy just growing into his body like Marco Raya, David Festa, or even Louie Varland. Right now, Ober's routines and outings are going smoothly. Let's hope the ride continues.

Solano has returned to hunting base hits recently after hitting some long fly ball outs earlier in the season. He is a consistently good bat who belongs at DH most of the time.

It was an ugly game.

The Pohlad family runs the entire operation. If attendance craters in August and September, they will notice. The development of players is a key part of a front office task, but the philosophy of play is also important. There have been instances where we see a few differences this season in approach, yet the Twins still lack in fundamental areas. The strike outs have been discussed and occasionally we do see different two strike swings. The guys who have the salaries have been a great disappointment to me. Correa plays a great shortstop but might benefit from hitting in the five or six hole. Buxton is, sadly, a shadow in the last month plus. If Taylor didn't have the ninth spot in the order locked up solid, Buxton belongs there. Gallo is working hard to make contact with too many holes in the bucket. Can he become functional again? Only if the pitcher puts the ball in his one small zone. Polanco has been hurt too often to know what anyone can expect later this year much less next season. Finally, Kepler and Vasquez have lost their bats. That is six guys with real struggles holding them down, which makes wins tough to collect. Things can always change and we hope it does but the best lineup right now would likely include more inexperienced players: Julien, Solano, Kirilloff, Lewis, Wallner, Correa, Larnach, Jeffers, and Taylor/Castro. Something has gone wrong, for a fair period of time now, with the guys we wanted to lead the team. The performance is not there and the energy seems inconsistent too. What responsibility is on the shoulders of Falvey and Baldelli is unclear. The Pohlads put out more than $20 million more in salaries than the ceiling from the Twins Daily charts last winter. The product has produced good starting pitching and half of a bullpen with weak support most of the time from the offense. I'm guessing that the patience of the Pohlad family will be tested if August and September are a repeat of last year. It is pretty hard to fire all of the players.

Emmanuel Rodriguez finally has the average over .200. He has cut the strike outs down a little bit but he has a long way to go and much work to accomplish with the bat.

Who are you confident in? Is Royce Lewis an adequate defender? Solano? Gallo? Castro? The Twins have three really good defensive players: Farmer, Kepler, and Correa. The others are all adequate to varying degrees. Vasquez has 5 errors, Miranda 4, and Correa, Farmer, Solano, and Lewis have 3 errors each. The Twins are just average defensively, which is not a bad thing. When I watch the games I see the other teams defense as similar in almost every series. I'm more concerned about the consistency of the bats.

A healthy and productive Jorge Polanco is the best player the Twins have on their roster. Unhealthy Polanco should just heal on the IL, and the same goes for Buxton. The Twins have some depth. The objections to Julien at second base are unrealistic. He is not Joe Morgan or Roberto Alomar. We can all agree on that. Thus far his fielding has yielded a handful of awkward plays that still recorded outs and one error. His range is fine and even though it looks like he stumbles in all directions, he records the outs. Is Eddie as good as we want at second base? No, but he is a positive force right now and showing signs of getting better. His defense is much better than Koskie showed when he first came to the majors and in time we saw the glove join the bat for Corey at third base. I'm thinking the Twins need to roster those players whose presence raises the odds of wins. Right now, Julien is a no brain decision to keep. Larnach was sent down because he has options but we should hope his absence is not critical because he has shown he could be a player too. There are some tough decisions coming by the end of July and those calls will determine the fate of the team.

Ober and Varland should be locked into the rotation with how they have pitched this year. Positives for the bats is starting to happen, which is really good news.

Julien has a good eye at the plate to get on base, makes the pitchers work hard, can hit for some power, can run a bit, and could hit for average. All eyes and comments stress that he doesn't look good (awkward) defensively and even the routine plays aren't smooth. This is true as an observation. Yet, the plays are generally made and the idea he has hurt the team with his defense just hasn't happened yet. He makes an odd flip to Correa, who throws the ball away and Kirilloff fails to dig out the throw. Folks, including Morneau, put the blame on Julien. Julien forced Correa to throw the ball away when he had time to adjust with a slow runner? Farmer makes a clean relay, Correa makes a strong throw to first and the batter is safe. The play gets highlighted by Morneau but it wasn't effective. Julien will not win a Gold Glove any time soon, but he makes plays and gets to batted balls in respectful numbers. I'm not a fan of defensive metrics. I trust my eyes much more than some data points even though they mostly agree with what I see. Miranda was brutal at first base and Arraez wasn't much better. Arraez was decent at second base but panned the last few years. The optics where Julien looks hesitant and mechanical are not important if he can get the ball and the out. Nevertheless, it is what Julien does at the plate that will determine his career. If he can get on base at a .400 or better clip and hit for some power, I'm thinking that is good for runs and victories. I will immediately comment when I see Julien hurting the team with his glove but it hasn't happened yet, which may or may not be a coincidence.

Polanco has been the Twins best player, but the injuries have begun to take a toll. When healthy he is still a very good hitter and plays a decent second base. The performances when Jorge plays with the injuries are not good. His swing changes and the defensive range is diminished when he plays through the limiting hurts. Thus, Polanco is a bit of an enigma for planning purposes. When healthy, there is no one better to play second base. It is difficult to watch both Polanco and Buxton when they are clearly hurting and playing in a reduced physical capacity. He stays until someone totally forces their way into the lineup. The Twins way be wondering how other teams value Polanco and it seems unknown to me.

Miranda still has a bright future. He got into a rut this year swinging for extra bases and biting on every high fastball. If he returns to just hitting line drives the potential for 40 doubles and 12-15 home runs is there. The walks need to exceed the strike outs for guys who are not true sluggers. The whiffs on pitches well out of the zone and pop ups don't help. Miranda could also be a decent front talent paired with another (or two) in a trade, although I don't have any fresh ideas myself on who to target.

Runs follow Julien. The guy looks a little awkward but gets on base and hits. Is he the leadoff batter the Twins need?

I wonder if Byron isn't so dinged up and restricted by pain that he decides to retire long before his contract ends. The contract was fine but the injuries and effect on his play is just sad.

Julien catches so much heat. Apparently on base is no longer very important. I agree with those who suggest he made a poor feed to Correa because he did. Correa made the bad throw though and Kirilloff failed to dig it out. Then Vasquez called off speed when Chapman couldn't touch the fastball and Varland grooved a pitch with zero movement. It takes a village. Julien makes pitchers work and offense (runs) follow him around. Kirilloff and Lewis have been fun to watch. I'm not ready to see Larnach back in St. Paul. If these four produce runs, let them play. Make the others wait their turn.

The ceiling is always the World Series because it can happen. The description of "horribly inconsistent" is pretty accurate. The All Star game will bring a full evaluation of the roster and I would expect several changes by August at the latest. The starting pitching has kept the team in almost every game. Half of the bullpen has been good and the other half is shaky. The defense has been just average, good enough to not be of any huge concern yet a little worrisome at times. An example from the game today was Julien failing on a smooth delivery to Correa, Correa failing to make a good throw when he had time, and Kirilloff failing to dig the ball out at first to bail out the two middle infielders. Of course, Varland made several good pitchers and Chapman looked off balance until Louie grooved a change up that didn't move. Should Vasquez have called for the letter high fastball there? Pretty much going on in a short sequence but the real culprit all season and even in the game today is hitting and moving runners along to score runs. This may seem distant if the offense turns it around after what has mostly been a ten week slump. It may still be too early to know the direction of the team. I'm still thinking that the World Series is the ceiling.

The bulk of the picks for win totals for the year were between 82-88 victories. I thought 83-79 would win the AL Central. The Twins remain quite frustrating but also on course. They are also showing some signs of putting things together. If the team can slowly improve their hitting, the record improves. A rough series of missed chances/plays cost the Twins a sweep of the Blue Jays in front of packed houses in Toronto, so the team is working hard to compete. It sure seems like the lineup has more life with all of Julien, Kirilloff, Larnach, and Lewis playing. Let them play. I'm not ready to see the return of these guys to AAA or to the bench. The next run of games should help. I'm concerned about a revival of the zero offense redux with a couple of players returning and getting put back in pen on the lineup card. I guess we shall see.