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tony&rodney

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Everything posted by tony&rodney

  1. tony&rodney
    The Twins simply do not have any two (or three) player(s) to compare to guys like Judge/Soto or Betts/Freeman/Ohtani. However, I do believe that it is possible that with good fortune, health, and continued growth the Twins will have a strong lineup. The offense of the last half of 2023 could be replicated and even improved in 2024. It is a reason I believe the Twins will be a better team next year than they were in the past year. As far as duos go, I would suggest that Edouard Julien and Royce Lewis batting 1 & 2 could be quite a start in any game. It will be the 1-9 lineup that makes a difference though. The Twins do not have the superstars to make any top ten list of duos in MLB. The Twins ranked #10 in runs last season and it would be sweet to see them reach the top five in the coming year.
  2. tony&rodney
    This is a valid point. I have been aware of that (Keller contract) and should have addressed it in my comment above. I would think the Pirates should try to extend Keller's contract. The Pittsburgh franchise has indicated they intend to compete. I guess it comes down to when the Pirates end the never ending rebuild. Like I said, Keller is a good pitcher. i like him and if the Twins can pick him up it might work out well all around. I try to think of trades from both sides, which is a little futile. As such, i don't see a decent reason for Pittsburgh to trade Keller unless they receive an offer they cannot refuse. They don't need position players, so maybe Raya, Festa, Varland, and Wallner+ or Culpepper+ instead of Wallner. In that case, it might work. On the other hand, I am on record as suggesting that the Twins do not trade any pitching unless it returns either Kirby or Gilbert. I'm just not seeing this match. I thought about how in late October. Others, including Tom Froemming I believe, have suggested trading for Keller and perhaps it all could be done.
  3. tony&rodney
    The United States was at war with itself from roughly 1970-1995, with rates peaking in the early 1900s. Murder, violent crime, and property crime fell off rather dramatically until a spike that began in 2015. Crime, today, remains substantially lower than the 70s, 80s, 90s, or 00s. https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/us-crime-rates-and-trends-analysis-fbi-crime-statistics The social ills referenced by many in the comments are largely a result of growing inequality from 1980 onward that has reversed the trends from roughly 1900-1980. These are choices made by populations (voters). Social problems are distinct from crime. Posey moved back to San Francisco from Atlanta the area because he loves the SF area and it is where he wants his kids to grow up. He is frustrated that the Giants have been unable to sign some free agents and wonders if the perceptions have become reality. In fact, players choose where they play for reasons that do not necessarily have anything to do with negatives, but rather reflect their own preferences. Ohtani likes where he lives in Los Angeles and wants to drive to work, so it was never going to be anywhere but the Dodgers. Aaron Judge was always going to sign with the Yankees. He loves the city and the legacy of being a Yankee great has its own allure. Joe Mauer was always going to retire a Minnesota Twin. He couldn't change his clothes or accent. There isn't any reason to read too much into why athletes make their choices of where to work. People are different.
  4. tony&rodney
    I agree with your comments and also look over these statistics on a routine basis. One note is that the Rays home is in St. Petersburg, not Tampa. The bridge and travel to get from the Tampa area to The Trop in St. Pete has often been stated as a reason for the poor attendance at Rays games. Tampa did have a brief period of glory in the early 1980s where it led the country in violent crime per population.
  5. tony&rodney
    Mitch Keller is a good pitcher, the only decent starting pitcher for the Pirates. Pittsburgh has specifically stated he is not available and that their top goals for this offseason are in this order: SP, SP, and SP. While I would like it if Keller appeared as a Twin next season, I don't understand why Pittsburgh would trade him. Can anyone reasonably explain why the Pirates would trade Keller? The only previous explanation was that the Pirates front office and owners were incompetent to a level that any team could take advantage of them. Hmmmm?
  6. tony&rodney
    I believe this is one of the arguments for keeping Kepler. His salary is low. Trade him and we can sign a mediocre relief pitcher with the savings.
  7. tony&rodney
    This is correct.
  8. tony&rodney
    Max Kepler is a beast and has just started his run of amazing years. It just took him a few years to balance everything out in his life. Now he figured it all out.
  9. tony&rodney
    This made me laugh. I remember getting trashed for speaking up for Kepler, but I also remember that my belief in him was wobbling badly. There isn't much logic in why I love to see Max Kepler on the Twins. He seems like that rare player who has a run of a 5-7 years of his best baseball that began last July. But then again ...... pumpkin.
  10. tony&rodney
    Emm-Rod is immature. He has moments where his concentration just wanders. This is pretty typical of young guys. He gets to Wichita and to St. Paul and then we should see him begin to take everything a little more seriously. Do not underestimate how difficult it is to grow up. We shall see soon. It often looked like he was disinterested. However, what about that grand slam in the playoffs. I could see that coming and actually said it out loud, "He going yard in this at bat". Let's check back with Emmanuel on August 1.
  11. tony&rodney
    Last season the Twins starting pitchers were among the leaders in innings pitched as a team because they had the guys to successfully pitch deeper into games. In other years, some of the pitchers often struggled in the 3rd inning. If Baldelli has guys pitching effectively he will let them keep going. It is the weakness of pitchers that results in shorter outings. One example - Greg Maddux could face a lineup four times and the batters would never see the same pitches. That and the friendly strike zone.
  12. tony&rodney
    Come on now. They don't play the same position. Their results are not actually similar, You are being silly.
  13. tony&rodney
    I was more referring to the Giants running into some roadblocks when signing major contracts with star players recently. Sure, the Giants have won three and that does take some luck, but they are also always working to some extent to put a decent team on the field. I'm not sure all teams can make that claim. Your point stands, a ton of teams are in line for better luck.
  14. tony&rodney
    I can't disagree with you really. I'm going off of a couple of things. The Twins (Falvey) loosely indicated a reduction in payroll. I'm guessing somewhere from $120-130 M. Of course this could be far different, it is just a guess. Last year I guessed $150 million. I was low then too.
  15. tony&rodney
    Ok. I agree that this is a problem that should be resolved.
  16. tony&rodney
    That trade includes a prospect and the Mariners have specifically stated that they are looking for MLB ready guys with lower K-rates. I believe it best to take people at their word, although i will grant anyone that people change their minds. Substitute Bailey Ober for Emm-Rod and you might get some interest. Additionally, Julien does strike out more than both Polanco or Brooks Lee, so maybe a substitution is needed there as well.
  17. tony&rodney
    Yes, I agree the Twins are looking to make a trade. There is zero chance in my opinion that the Twins sign a player for big bucks even if they clear dollars first. They have not played in that territory. As I often say, anything can happen. I would bet a grand against a Snell or Montgomery signing.
  18. tony&rodney
    We are likely working from different guesses. I'm guessing the Twins are going to land in the $120-130 million range for a roster budget, but I CLEARLY don't know. Thus, the Twins won't add guys with the knowledge that they have to reduce later via trade because their options would be severely restricted due to a need to sell. I'm also guessing that trades are the path that the Twins are looking towards in order to improve the team. I also believe the Twins are looking to trade for a pitcher that fits in with Pablo Lopez. The Twins are not going to sign a pitcher like Montgomery or Snell because that is not their practice. Now could the Twins do something far different? Of course. They could also issue a statement that they came very close to signing Ohtani. Anything can happen.
  19. tony&rodney
    If the Twins haven't moved on Lugo or Wacha it may indicate that the payroll is at the limit already, which may mean any moves that cost money depend on salary coming off the rolls before a new number is added. If, I mean if, that is the case we should not be entertaining any thoughts about signing free agents above the minor league deals with a an invite to Ft. Myers. Trades remain a possibility. Fortunately the Twins are already in a fair position with their current roster.
  20. tony&rodney
    I had to laugh when I saw this post and the number of comments. Then I looked for what Brock had to say. I'm a big fan of Max Kepler, always have been and have been disappointed at times but hung in for him. I also believe the Twins need him for 2024. A trade would need to return a substantial pitcher. There may be help on the way in a couple of years from Emm-Rod and Jenkins, but the outfield is thin right now. I had high hopes for Trevor Larnach but he didn't look very good in St. Paul and may do better with a change/trade. Wallner made some impressive adjustments but still has a lot to prove. I'm putting him in the lineup every day though. All of Gordon, Martin, Prato, Helman, and Lewis look like decent utility players until they manage to grab a position and prove themselves as regulars. The players who have value to trade include: Jeffers, Julien, Lewis, Ryan, Ober, Varland, Duran, and Lee. Polanco and Kepler are complimentary pieces. Kepler alone returns a relief pitcher. If the return includes a controllable pitcher like Gilbert or Kirby, the Twins may consider adding Raya or Festa to the pile.
  21. tony&rodney
    Money helps but it does not come close to being equal and can never surpass the power of the unknown. The Yankees and the Dodgers have been powerful organizations for a long time. In the same market, neither the Mets nor the Angels have managed to capture similar success. The development of baseball players bears zero resemblance to the developmental paths of sports such as football and basketball. Those highly drafted athletes slot immediately into starting and starring roles for their respective teams. Baseball has Aaron Sabato, Mark Prior, and everything in between. Baseball players have a difficult road to playing time at the highest levels with an unpredictable end point, where injuries or even social problems can end careers quickly. MLB has weak leadership that has failed to access the media and attendance potential of the sport at a similar level to basketball and football. Those who decry the competition should examine the results of the last 40 years in comparison to the preceding 40 years in baseball. There are conversations and negotiations on various details that may enhance the sport for all teams and the players, but the game is not suffering at the moment. The Shohei Ohtani signing has incited a raft of comments that push notions of imbalance and unfairness. The reality is that Ohtani was focused on playing for the Dodgers and the financials were irrelevant. We can be certain that multiple teams were willing to extend more lucrative contracts to Shohei. Baseball players should be able to work wherever they desire if they are able to manage the details. I would think that everyone should understand the allure of choosing your living and employment situation.
  22. tony&rodney
    I always agreed that the Twins could easily afford Shohei Ohtani. Thing is, Shohei just wanted to play for the Dodgers. He is a simple guy, lives in Los Angeles, and wants to work there too.
  23. tony&rodney
    The Twins have a strong team. I am agreement that in order to maintain or take another step the ceiling needs to be raised because the floor is solid. How to do that is tricky because any trade of a big name young player will be risky as depth will be reduced. The pitchers being mentioned thus far are on playoff contending teams (Seattle, Milwaukee, Miami), which includes the Twins. Similar to the Twins, these teams will want players who are MLB ready now. While oft named guys like Polanco, Kepler, Farmer, and Vazquez could have some interest it is much more likely we are talking about discussions that identify younger players such as Jeffers, Kirilloff, Miranda, Julien, Lewis, and Lee (near ready). The Twins also hear interest in all of Ryan, Ober, Varland, Duran, and Jax. The Twins are not going to be able to make a convenient trade but a gamble trade may work. I don't expect anything until January or February, and perhaps Falvey just holds the hand in hand.
  24. tony&rodney
    My first seven decades are in the books, so i qualify for your first point. Money is available to attend games but I'm loathe to spend cash on myself because the prices still shock me to an extent. When I do go to games, it is fun and I spend without worrying. I have had partial season tickets but find myself more comfortable listening or watching from home. Going to games takes time and beautiful days on the lake win out. I'm not understanding the accessibility point. Whenever I go to the games I park in the North Loop. It is really nice around there with a ton of little shops plus a brewery right there. Safety? I'm sure there are issues but I don't go to strip clubs or the bars where all the hip people hang out. I would get carded and refused entry. I just stayed in an Airbnb downtown for four nights during Thanksgiving with my spouse and kids. We went out every day walking for hours and also went out at night. I think the scariest thing I ever saw in Minneapolis was Bob Lurtsema walking briskly along in a t-shirt on a January day where the temperature was -10 degrees F. The Twins will need to figure out how to get their games "out' on various media platforms. I have cable but am dropping it next week. I also have a subscription to mlb.com. There must be someone smart enough to put together a plan to make the games available so that people can watch or listen if they are interested. Lastly, I cannot state what level of appeal the Twins reach as far as younger fans. When I go to games, I usually go with someone in their thirties who has called me up and asked to to a game. Looking around there seems to be quite a few younger fans but there must be someone who works for the Twins who knows all of those details. The Twins are ok right now and old goats who have followed the team have seen plenty of lean years.
  25. tony&rodney
    I hope he is great. The Giants could use a little good luck.
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