tony&rodney

Lot of love for Lewis. Sure hope the weight of expectations after only 280 MLB plate appearances aren't too overwhelming.

Sorry .... just wanted to add one thing. Look at the zone charts of a couple of batters and then Julien on mlb.com. You will see that Julien has zero home runs on pitches out of the zone, he has very few hits on pitches out of the zone, and his quality of contact out of the strike zone is poor. When you look at any number of other hitters you will see vastly different results. Others have some success swinging at borderline pitches. Julien won't last long in the big leagues swinging at pitches out of or on the edge of the strike zone. He knows what he is doing.

Those were different times. I remember pitching to those hitters. It was almost always the easiest outs of any game. The batters would be swinging for contact and bounce one back to the mound or hit a meek dribbler for an automatic out to an infielder or weakly pop out. For me, pitching in the 60s and 70s was easier than pitching in the 90s because of those weak two strike swings. My success as a hitter was compromised by my contact-oriented swing with two strikes, which I often felt affected my confidence as a batter. I always hit a very weak .300 and was more a defensive player and pitcher as a result. I do think that batters can be forceful and still slightly more attuned to making contact with two strikes and this was a big change in the game several decades ago. I expect Julien will make some very slight adjustments this season and punishing more pitches completely in the zone may be seen more often. I don't want to see him offering at those pitches at the edge of the zone or just off of the plate. Julien is a force at the plate and the strike zone mastery is his gold.

The point of an at bat is to get on base or be a person to score runs. Julien is better at offense than any other Twin at this time. His strength is to force pitchers to come to him, which he does exceptionally well. Julien also does punish pitches within the strike zone. His weakness is making solid contact on pitches out of the strike zone, thus he takes those pitches. To swing at pitches off the plate would negate his strength as a hitter. The called third strikes off of the plate are not a problem. I would expect that Julien does improve on those pitches wholly in the strike zone with two strikes. It is important to remember that his exposure to baseball at a highly competitive level has only occurred in the last half dozen years. A player like Brooks Lee or Royce Lewis, for two examples, have a decade of experience against competitive players. Julien is relatively inexperienced and still is learning. The question really is how far he can improve in all areas of his game. There are generally three types of hitters that pitchers do not like to face. One is a guy who smashes the ball so hard and just seems frightening, Like Miguel Sano or Giancarlo Stanton. They are scary. Next are guys who hit line drives all over the place on your best pitches and worse on pitches out of the strike zone. Vladimir Guerrero comes to mind. The third is a guy who takes a ton of pitches and is very difficult to get out but can also go yard on you at any time. This is Julien. The Twins do not have either of the other two hitters at this time. Watch Julien bat against Verlander in the playoffs and look at Justin's face. He is, arguably, the best pitcher of this generation and Julien totally owns those at bats. Can julien maintain and even improve this season? This is the question, but right now he is the best offensive player on the team.

The suggestion looks like it makes sense, except that the Twins are not going to part with either Festa or Raya and are short on outfielders. Wallner may or may not evolve but his power, speed, arm, and the lack of a ready replacement make him unlikely in a trade. I'm accepting these ideas as honest attempts to find a way for the Twins to fill in for the loss of Sonny Gray, but they also weaken the team for this season. Perhaps the only player not counted on right now is Brooks Lee. I don't even believe the Twins are willing to trade him. An extreme move would be Lewis for Kirby .... nah. We better get excited about Louie Varland. He's our guy.

I believe BTV had Arraez at about 26, the same as Jose Miranda, last season. Both were less than Polanco. Lopez was somewhere near 40, mol, but his value rose. I cannot remember exactly, but I'm real close. I do not want to see the Twins trade Julien for Luzardo but it would be similar to the deal last year.

Miami has had good success at developing pitchers. I'm not sure another organization can do better, but a change of scenery helps at times. In my initial plans In my initial thinking back in October, I wanted to trade for Edward Cabrera and put him in the bullpen. Lee will never be traded for Cabrera. Even a Polanco - Cabrera trade is a little iffy. I think the Twins want a pitcher who is more predictable and that means tough trades. Lee - Luzardo probably works if the Twins include a guy like Alcala or Woods Richardson. The Twins seem likely to go with the guys they have right now. The scenarios for trades are all pretty complicated and may leave the team short on depth.

There is so much uncertainty related to the roster budget. Man, have we come a long way from October when a budget of $170 M was floated and the first payroll team was set at $150 M. Now it seems like it is possible that the team is looking for a final figure near $120 M or lower. This influences so many decisions. No addition of a middle type starting pitcher like Clevinger for one. For get Rhys Hoskins. Of course, nobody knows but we have seen reasonable players get contracts that may have been a real boost to the Twins for the coming season. The finances also affects potential deals for any of Luzardo, Gilbert, or Alcantara (for 2025 and beyond). Money being an issue means the Twins are looking to move contracts, not add money. Luzardo at $5M gets much more in the next two years after. All of Lee, Festa, Raya, Julien, Wallner, Ryan, Ober, Varland, and Lewis are inexpensive. If the money issue is real for Minnesota, Seattle, Milwaukee, and Miami I would not expect additions of players who cost money. The Twins would do Luzardo for Farmer and Lee. Do the Twins trade Lee? I think these ideas are entertaining to discuss but just go in circles. The only thing I'm confident of is that I don't have any idea what is going on with some of the financials across baseball. That and both of Polanco and Kepler still have value for Minnesota in the coming season.

Correct. I do realize that few hold Festa in as high of a position as I do. I would agree to trade Polanco, Festa, and another for any of Kirby, Gilbert, or Luzardo. If I am looking from Miami's or Seattle's view, I do not trade those pitchers. FWIW, I do believe that both the Marlins and Mariners are in a bit of a bind because they should keep their pitchers but their bats are not going to cut it. I get the move by Seattle to cut strikeouts. Apparently salary was also a key factor in their trades. Losing Gonzales, White, Suarez, Hernandez, and Murphy plus the end of other lost money to players no longer around from 2023 has saved the Mariners a pile of dough. I'm not privy to their financial stability, but it seems like they will mostly sit out the larger free agent market. Mitch Garver could be ok for them. If I am a Mariner's fan, I'm nervous about 1B, 2B, 3B, LF, and RF. Some people like the guys they hold in those positions now, but Sometimes it is as easy as pretending to pick teams and then the Mariners look weak. Thing is they play the games and it all tells us the story at the end of each season. Long way of saying that SEA & MIA will probably be calling Falvey from time to time.

I would not trade Festa for Meyer and would hesitate to trade him for Cabrera. Then again, admittedly, I see much higher potential from David Festa than most and time will tell on that guess. Cabrera is out of options, has great stuff, but struggles to throw strikes. His issues are seemingly growing, not receding. We do not know where Falvey or the Marlins sit on Cabrera. I still would like to see the Twins acquire Cabrera but don't have a feel for what Miami wants in return. Certainly, Polanco, SWR, and maybe a rookie league guy, at least. I don't believe they will entertain offers for Meyer though. Money and years of control is a real thing for teams like Miami, Milwaukee, Seattle, and Minnesota among others. Large market teams would place greater value on Polanco and not be interested in moving him. Jorge looked pretty healthy in October. I don't think other teams or the Twins feel Polanco has to prove himself. He is an established MLB ballplayer who is highly respected around baseball even if some Twins fans are now giving him the Mauer treatment. Luzardo is on another level of projected value, similar to Royce Lewis. What intrigues me is whether Miami has financial concerns which would facilitate a move of the injured Alcantara to save money which would reduce the cost of a Cabrera. However, perhaps the Twins have more serious money troubles. It is a difficult offseason to read.

RpR gives a good response. I used Catch-22 in much the same manner. Perhaps that needs some further explanation. Polo nor any other Twin has the ability on their own to return a Logan Gilbert or George Kirby. Teams that are trading for Jorge want to win and are not giving up their best pitchers. Polanco also does not have the future value to return a top young prospect. Trading him for a player that does not improve the team for the coming year weakens the team because the Twins can certainly use the depth, experience, and level of professionalism that Polanco brings to the field. I hope that makes sense or helps somewhat. The unknown is whether the Twins would put together an aggressive deal that includes several players to potentially lure a GM into trading a #2 type starting pitcher. Polanco, really anyone could be in such a transaction. This assumes we are talking about just this coming season and not trying to engineer some mini rebuild for 2-3 years from now.

No hurry to even worry about Solano as an option right now.

It's the same old song. The prevailing thought last winter on Max Kepler still applies this winter to both Max and Jorge Polanco. If a team has an interest and can offer a player in return that makes the Twins a better team in 2024, then the Twins can trade either or both Max and Jorge. Conversely, it makes zero sense to trade either or both for a return that does not help the team in 2024. Unless, the Twins are rebuilding ...... then it doesn't matter and a lower level prospect is a good idea. We can read sixty plus comments that include various numerical justifications to trade Polanco (and Kepler) and the adjoining guess that age plus injuries have muted their skills. The reality will remain that these two are on short term team friendly deals, both players have questions, and neither will return a significant starting pitcher/player or prospect of note by themselves. If Miami wants to trade one of Max Meyer or Edward Cabrera for Jorge Polanco, I think the Twins take a chance. I'm just not seeing these type of deals being completed right now. The old worn saying, "a bird in hand", probably applies to the Twins and Polanco/Kepler. I believe the loss of either or both players will be a loss the Twins cannot handle next season, unless we are talking about a major deal that returns a player on the order of Pablo Lopez. So unless the big deal is out there, Polanco and Kepler stay. I guess I should address the money saved from a potential trade since it seems to come up often. The Twins are not going to sign Snell or Montgomery even if all of JP, MK, Farmer, and Vazquez are traded. If the Twins cannot field a team at $120 million next season, there are perhaps some bigger issues, which I do not predict or expect. If either or both of Max and Jorge are dumped for salary relief, I predict the Twins do not win the AL Central. On to speculative trades .... many have been floated. Brewers? Burnes plus Quero for Polanco plus Ryan and Raya. Miami? Alcantara plus Cabrera for Polanco plus Jeffers. Seattle? Polanco plus Lee and Raya for Gilbert. I don't believe any of those will work, nor suggest they should. Just throwing Polanco in a few trades. Polanco is not a player to trade if the Twins are looking for a starting pitcher or hoping to win the AL Central in 2024. He has more value for the Twins than for another team to give up a stud pitcher. Catch-22.

I guess I was agreeing with the general point that prospect lists are a jumble but also adding the enormous change in value brought on by the big money today. I think Baltimore sees Holliday as the future face of the franchise. Milwaukee just gave a huge guaranteed contract to Jackson Chourio, who may not even make his debut this year although I expect he will due to the contract. The one thing that remains true is that the players need to prove it on the field.

The 1977 Twins would argue that the 1970s were a loss. That was one of the most exciting teams to watch, but oh my, the pitching.

Falvey is not playing fantasy baseball. There isn't a GM in MLB that would trade Max Kepler for Ty France, save for the suddenly flabbergasted Jerry Dipoto of Seattle. Ty France is a good ballplayer but he does not compare to Kepler. For one, you might consider that they play different positions. I'm not sure why you look down on Kepler and Polanco or if you genuinely believe that the Twins need the money badly and should just dump both players. I will be the first to openly congratulate you if Falvey just decides that both Polanco and Kepler have limited value. Until the final decisions are made, we can wait.

I agree that the prospect lists are mostly for entertainment, but it is also very true that in the game today prospects and generally many younger players carry significant value due to their years of financial control. The high contracts (@$15M per year) and paucity of those available for back end rotation pieces makes any breathing starting pitcher look attractive. This is even more true if the guy has some years left before free agency. Also, the players who are ranked in the top ten have crazy value before ever taking an at bat. I'm pretty sure that Baltimore would not trade Jackson Holliday for any two Twins. Prospects are a gamble, for sure, and as the money grows so does the gambling.

Yah .... I like Meyer too, but so do the Marlins.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/reds-to-sign-frankie-montas.html Another off the list; Montas makes money too.

Meyer is right handed, was the #3 pick, and Miami would certainly ask for Brooks Lee, the #8 pick.

I'm not sure Miami sees Alcantara as having negative value. If they do there may be some real value in working towards a bigger trade with the Marlins. I'm pretty sure that Brooks Lee and/or Ryan Jeffers are names that come up in that mythical discussion.

We don't really know what are the limitations for the roster budget, but it would seem that a contract as you suggest for Clevinger could fit. It is also possible that Clevinger wants 2/$36M+ or 3/$45M+ too. If the Twins were going to sign a pitcher for "limited" dollars, the contract for Kenta Maeda was likely as good as it gets. From watching the offseason play out, it looks like the Twins are sitting out free agency. If the Twins are indeed hoping to realize a gain in quality through a trade or two, I would expect that pitchers such as Luis Castillo are not on their list due to his contract. Why trade useful players when a similar player could be gathered in free agency? The new year may bring some surprises but the deadlock right now is real. I'm not seeing too many trades for decent pitching that does not involve Lewis, Lee, or Julien in some form. I thought Giolito might sign a one year deal and hope to cash in next year but his new contract with the Red Sox gives him opt-outs and a possible third year. Either way, Giolito did well for himself. These contracts, partnered with the chaos of the Twins media uncertainties, have left the Twins on the outside looking in. Clevinger is still there. I thought Gurriel Jr. was a potential addition and many have mentioned Rhys Hoskins. The Twins may have to go with the team they have and look for good health and further positive development from their younger players, especially the pitchers.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/red-sox-in-agreement-with-lucas-giolito.html A good contract for Giolito.

Good grief. Why make suggestions about Max Kepler when all he has ever done is suit up to the best of his ability. Do those of you who question any part of his integrity think before you type? Kepler is the best outfielder we have right now. Rocco Baldelli is happy every time he puts Kepler's name in the lineup. The notion that Kepler is overpaid, spoiled, and selfish just doesn't jive with any reporting ever much less my few conversations with Twins employees. I always liked how Jake Cave hustled, but I sure wish so many people didn't spend their time wishing for him to return. Or maybe some people prefer we sign Kyle Garlick, Mark Contreras, or Tim Beckham. BTV has a trade where the Twins receive Brent Rooker for Kepler, Farmer, and Thielbar. Now there is a deal someone thought of and it was accepted too. Are you in? Max Kepler is needed in the outfield and if the Twins still have Byron Buxton around on April 1, he is the centerfielder. There are plenty of guys to fill: Willi Castro and Austin Martin to begin. They also have a glove guy in AAA, Kiersey Jr. Unless the Twins are going to sign Cody Bellinger or return Michael A. Taylor, centerfield is set.

They are both wonderful. The French are charming and friendly. Having rented a car and driven all over France on numerous occasions, I suggest you plan your next trip to ..... France. Oh, carry a tiny translation book (or phone) to manage your French and stay at Bed & Breakfast places for inexpensive travel.