tony&rodney

Good that you enjoy Correa. The reality of contracts for MLB teams is that rarely does any contract actually hinder their financial approach. Of course, we can look to Tampa Bay and the pathetically run Athletics as a couple of examples where contracts are dumped. The Twins have the money by the tens of millions. I don't care how the Pohlads spend their money because there is no way I can control their habits. I'm also fine with them doing their mega big business deal approach to profit because .... again, i have no say in the matter. We should never confuse any contract, Mauer, Buxton, Correa, etc., for a drain or some minimal limitation on the Twins financial decisions simply because none exists. This has been argued endlessly but I will just close by saying, enjoy Correa for what he brings to the game and completely forget about the money because you have no say in the matter.

Don't give a #*&@ about the Hall of Fame, but Carlos Correa is a mighty fine baseball player. The amount I pay for a game is not determined at all by his salary, so forget his contract and try to enjoy a magnificent shortstop playing for our Minnesota Twins.

I agree that the Twins need to hold their best prospects (top five - Jenkins, Lee, EmRod, Festa, Raya). Of course, every prospect "may" have reached their ceiling but EmRod could explode this season to Dylan Crews status/value. I don't see the value as very important when the organization plans to develop and put a player into their own lineup. The value for trading is all over the place. Where does Falvey see EmRod in two years? I think he sees him on the grass at Target Field.

This season should tell people where Correa is headed for the next few years. Hopefully, the foot and all minor aches, pains, and little injuries are completely healed and that Carlos enters the year at 100% health. Plantar fasciitis is brutal, but Correa managed to fight through the year. Fully healthy and with a stronger lineup all around him, perhaps we see CC go back to career averages or better. Then folks can revisit his candidacy in five years time.

Bailey Ober is a large human and tall pitchers often develop more slowly. Last season Ober was pretty good and it often seemed like he could throw all day. There are still questions about whether Ober can repeat his success of last season for a full year and beyond. Reasonable. I'm thinking Ober has a great shot at settling in as a really good #3 pitcher for several years. Ryan is a different type of pitcher. He needs to have his control working for him. I do think he can be a really good #4 pitcher a decent run and have confidence in him. Both pitchers are good but were a bit rundown by the end of last year. I'm expecting more durability this year.

Last year my range was plus or minus five from 82 wins. This year it may be too early to guess, but i will say plus or minus five from 88 wins. I'm taking the over on 86.5 victories. At this time, the offense looks solid and there is good depth as well. The pitching is always an unknown but I'm good with our starting five and bullpen. A big addition would be nice but there is a concern about the cost given for any transaction.

When was the last time Falvey traded a top ten organizational prospect before that player had reached the majors? Perhaps this is important .... or not, but at least we should be aware of how Falvey has worked in the past. Spencer Steer topped out as a #11 prospect for the Twins. He was behind a ton of players. Good for him that he has received an opportunity with the Reds. Steer would not have received a promotion with the Twins. Luck and circumstances play into careers. The guy the Twins should not have given up to Cincinnati was Encarnacion-Strand. The Twins need Emmanuel Rodriguez to develop into a star. He might not but Falvey is unlikely to risk the young slugger reaching his potential with another team and there should not be anyone blocking his path as soon as next year. Who knows what will happen between now and May. I'm open to improvements, but do not see using EmRod as a trade chip as a good idea. Besides, the point is likely moot because teams like Seattle are trying to win now and not looking for prospects.

Some have wondered if EmRod is too patient and whether he takes strikes right down the middle. Based just on about 75 at bats that I have watched, the knowledge of the strike zone is real. I cannot comment on whether he is too patient. He does, in fact, take a number of pitches middle middle in the zone. These are rarely with guys on base or late in a close game. I wonder (we will not hear) what his coaches say about his concentration at times. He seems (as i said above) to give away at bats. I expect this potential issue to go away once he sees the prize and money of MLB; he will grow considerably in his attention to details IMHO.

Emmanuel has stats that fall oddly in various places. He has better numbers versus left-handed pitchers and late in games. It is tough to take anything away from an analysis of all of his numbers. Via milb.com or by going to a few games though a few items seem pertinent about EmRod. Most noticeable is that his bat gets through the zone in a hurry. He is athletic and knows the strike zone. The one thing that seemed to stick out as a negative is that Rodriguez gives at bats away. There are times he seems disinterested with poor results following. However, when the game calls for something he sure looked like a guy you wanted at the plate. From watching dozens of his at bats my takeaway is that the young outfielder is just a bit immature. His placement on the 40 person roster puts him a few injuries down the list from MLB. My guess (or hunch) is that we should see the best of EmRod this year in terms of where he may be headed as a baseball player. I have seen performances from him last year to indicate a top ten global prospect. Only the consistency is missing. By himself, Rodriguez will not return a #2 starting pitcher because his performance has not totally blown people away. The ceiling is too high to ignore the future value. While a ER for Kirby trade would be worthy for the Twins, there is no way Seattle takes that gamble. Anything less is a poor gamble for the Twins. I'm firmly in the Do Not Trade camp on Emmanuel Rodriguez. While he may not reach MVP status in the next few years, his outstanding ability to see the strike zone along with his quick powerful swing make his chances to excel at the highest level pretty good.

For what player? Sabato?

Go outside. Wear a t-shirt. When you get back in the house, your mind will feel right.

I have been convinced to add Randy Dobnak to Nick Gordon for Manoah.

Yes, but every player is a regression candidate. Those players who command the strike zone as hitters are less prone to regression and this makes Julien less prone to regression than any other Twin. However, your point that Julien may be a regression candidate is true.

Miami has some issues. Money, drawing crowds to their games, stability, and offense look like problems. The Marlins went to the playoffs with Arraez so i doubt they regret the trade. The inability to sign the right people to long term contracts and luck hurts them. Alcantara signs a friendly deal and gets hurt. The Marlins still have some guys to trade and some players who could perk up on offense. They should be an interesting team to watch, both now for what they might do in transactions and also in the season to come.

Toronto has not likely reached the point where they will just send Manoah away and I don't see Falvey looking to add a pitcher whose contributions are a sheer gamble. I guess Falvey would trade Gordon for Manoah, which is a way of saying it is a very unlikely event.

The author asked for an approximate fair price. Lee still has not played a game at the MLB level. I don't believe Seattle is looking to trade any of their pitchers unless Trader Jerry finds a taker for DeSclafani and signs Snell. Conversely, the Twins like Lewis. I do believe Arraez was a bigger fan favorite than Lewis. "Maybe not 1 for 1"? Seattle would want a pitching prospect and Minnesota would want a position prospect added. I would hazard a guess that Lewis has a smidge more value than Gilbert or Kirby. The unknown is how other teams value any of the Twins players. Despite my placing huge value on Kepler and/or Polanco, fans can forget about those two players returning a starting pitcher to slot above Ryan or Ober. My comment was merely responding to fair value mol.

Royce Lewis would be the price or at least very close for either Gilbert or Kirby.

Overpay.

Hey maybe the Twins do add a starting pitcher through a huge trade. As of right now though, only Seattle and Houston look to have a better top five (very subjective). i will be interested to see if Ryan, Ober, and Varland can all stay healthy and start 30 games each.

Ryan and Ober are both very good starting pitchers. Varland may join them this year as a dependable starting pitcher after a full season of starts at the MLB level. While i'm not going to complain if the Twins sign Blake Snell, I may say, "They did what?" Don't expect it. There really isn't anyone to sign above Varland and a trade would need to be a real surprise challenge type deal. I would expect a pitcher added along the lines of Jose De Leon from last year. There are several months left for teams to shake out what their plans are for the coming year.

I might trade Julien for George Kirby, but I might not. The Twins still have Polanco and Lee has promise. I would not trade Julien for Woo and Brash. We all value different players in our own ways. So does each organization. The answer is a few months away.

Oh, I have no opinion on any of these players whatsoever. I also do not have any inside information, just the widely reported and commonly read articles. My comment was that Falvey likely has different thoughts. The book on Edouard Julien has just begun. He has his detractors, for sure. I will say that he and Kepler drove the second half success in my opinion. Those folks who liked a showdown at the plate missing when Luis Arraez was traded should have enjoyed Julien. Despite clumsy claims to the contrary, Edouard became a decent second baseman by the end of the year. Playing Polanco at 2B in the playoffs was a no brain move - Polanco has been the heart and soul of the team, injuries aside. Don't ask any Houston pitchers if Julien is a tough out. Brooks Lee has done extremely well in his short time in professional baseball. He finished the year in AAA and so his story as an MLB ballplayer has yet to be known. Lee has great promise. Who to trade? I don't want to trade either player or as I stated above in a separate comment, perhaps who needs to be opened up to more players. I don't want to make a trade. Still, to the post ... I go back to picking teams on the playground and I'm picking Julien for my team. Those who choose Lee, I understand. We make our picks and play the games. I never regret my picks.

I believe all I said is that it is an option. While I myself might expect a trade or some move, sometimes the best trades are the ones not made (cliche). Tom Petty, "The future is wide open."

Figuring out what Falvey will do to replace Sonny Gray has filled the pages of Twins Daily. The process is tricky and may just involve going with the roster in place. All I take away from the article is a Jerry Dipoto like "We really like our baseball team". The main lesson from last season was the importance of depth. The financial restrictions self-imposed this offseason, largely or partially as a result of the changing media contracts, puts Falvey in a position where difficult decisions need to be made ..... or perhaps he just decides to do nothing at all.

Falvey likely has different thoughts on Clevinger. Speaking for myself only, I'm with Varland at #4 and Paddack at #5. If the Twins can bring in Luzardo, Gilbert, or Kirby in a shocking move I shall not complain and if Seattle signs Snell after dumping DeSclafani and then trades Woo or Miller to the Twins for Polanco, I shall not complain too much. All of these are distant though. Clevinger, Bauer, Urias - all quite different but seem like a stretch for Falvey.