tony&rodney

Brooks Lee and Chris Paddack for Jesus Luzardo might work.

Maybe Polanco and Paddack for Burnes. The Brewers get Polanco for two years plus a guy who can deliver about 250-275 innings in Paddack. The Twins get a draft choice and hopefully 200+ innings from Burnes.

It seems like quite the long shot that the Twins will spend big money on a pitcher, which is precisely why they have not been a player in the free agent market. While all things are possible making it an option, the odds of considering a trade for Castillo are nearly nil. Burnes is a possibility, but also low because he will go to FA and the cost will be a player like Brooks Lee. Does it seem like the eventual addition will be a surprise? We might also be surprised at the cost, which could go either way.

I don't disagree with you about the Twins getting outbid, but this is also an indication that the Twins are not going to pay big salaries for pitchers this year. Things may change next year. I will add that we hoped that the Twins would sign a guy this year, but it isn't going to happen. More and more, I'm not real interested in trading a top prospect/player such as Julien, Lewis, Wallner, Festa, or Lee, much less the key prospects below AAA. I'm not taking on either of Ray or Castillo. I'm still in on Gilbert or Kirby and fully understand that the Mariners are extremely unlikely to trade them. I am also bullish on Louie Varland which most people seem to disagree with right now. The Twins could use some depth behind Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Varland, and Paddack, for sure. Polanco seems to be the guy to trade as well although I'm still believing in his value. The three guys who are going to be constantly asked about though are still Lewis, Lee, and Julien. There are going to be many teams contacting the Mariners and Marlins and both of these teams will be calling the Twins too. If the Twins did trade Polanco for a player earning a minimum salary, I would hope there is room to add a Justin Turner or Rhys Hoskins in the budget.

Why would the Twins trade for Castillo? If the Twins wanted to spend that much money they would just sign Montgomery or Snell. Castillo is not an option at all.

Garver as a power bat? Polanco as a power bat? Who has more career home runs? Season high? Expected? Consistency? RISP? I never think of Polanco as a power bat but why is he so underrated? I get that the Twins have the depth to hopefully cover him at 2B. I get that he has had some injuries and declined in athleticism, but Jorge is still a very good baseball player. Perhaps Polanco gets used all over the infield and as a sometime DH this year. I'm not sure how Jorge himself feels about having an unclear role in 2024. Garver is not nearly as valuable a player as Polanco and he would be more expensive too. Garver in 2024? No way.

Robbie Ray is due back after the All Star Game, which makes his salary about $11-12M for 2024 and then he is still due another $50M plus $1M if traded for 2025-2026. Castillo is due $24+M per year for four years plus an option. Both potentially good pitchers. Why would you trade for these guys as opposed to signing Snell or Montgomery as free agents? Seattle has to either sign some free agents to fill spots in the outfield and infield or acquire some players via trade. Thus far, the Mariners have been a little skittish about paying bats via free agency, although they could certainly change their past practices. I don't believe teams will be looking to help them out.

The Marlins are a bit of an enigma. They need a true starting catcher, a shortstop, and a first baseman/DH. If Miami sees a place on the field for Polanco, I believe they would trade Cabrera to the Twins. A throw in like Mercedes or Sean Mooney type would help add a controllable prospect that does not need to be on the 40 person roster. The Twins will not want to add guys who are out of options that do not figure to be contributors. The money remains a mystery as far as adding Giolito. Bauer has his name brought up in numerous chats on various sites and every writer has said that there is currently zero interest from any MLB team. I believe Bauer is a firm no from the front office. A ton of trade options have been proposed and are always interesting to think about. I'm pretty bullish on Louie Varland as the Twins #4 starting pitcher at this time. Chris Paddack fits perfectly as a #5 starting pitcher because he can be skipped in the rotation as the team uses the schedule to find him days for extra rest. Paddack will be lucky to reach 120 effective innings this season. Varland has no limitations at all.

BTV has shifted values for some players at least three times since the season ended, some by quite a bit. Emm-Rod could slot into a prospect list at #25 or better when all of the new lists come out, which might push his value on BTV into the 40s or 50s. Those lists are quite fluid. Additionally, while there are close values on many trades, we can see vast differences in trades that include major names. Look only to the Lopez-Arraez, Soto, or Glasnow trades to witness the wild discrepancies (according to BTV) in some transactions. Seattle cannot compete with the team they currently have rostered, the Twins can. Knowing this, the Twins need to proceed with the knowledge that other teams need their players much more than the Twins need to complete a deal. Both Polanco and Kepler have tremendous value in the short term. I would not agree to any of the trades offered here. Seattle would jump at #1 and #3. I'm not sure Seattle wants a prospect a couple of years away, especially one who has struck out at high rates (#2), and I'm not feeling as much love for Miller (or Woo) as some others. I'll take Varland. The Twins did not show any interest in Gurriel Jr that I'm aware of and I'm not sure that Falvey is working hard to sign Rhys Hoskins. These were two players I think would benefit the Twins. While it isn't unusual for the Twins to wait until later (Jan.-April) to complete their team, the number of good players has dwindled to high-priced free agents and questionable risks. Trades are going to be difficult to complete with Seattle. Perhaps Miami can be a repeat partner for Falvey.

I'm hoping to see both Soto and Winokur play a number of times this coming season. Having only seen briefs videos on these two and read their reports, it is tough to get a feel for them. Certainly you and another paint positive pictures, which is exciting. I'm hoping for the Twins to benefit eventually from these two players.

The compensation in baseball for these young (inexperienced) players is a good thing to an extent. CEO pay is 254+ times the pay of median workers. Free market system has never been free. We all get to work somewhere. All is well that ends well: good for Ober and good for Ohtani. The compensation reward tells a story too ... Ober and Julien were the Twins most valuable young players.

Exactly, we don't know. We get to guess though. What is your guess?

This goes back to the budget for 2024. Are the Twins already at their ceiling? Do you believe the Twins will settle at $140 million? If you believe the Twins will go to $140 million or higher for 2024, then there is room to spend $15-20M and add Rhys Hoskins. If the number is at or close to the current figure of @$125M, then there isn't any do-re-mi. That is how. It isn't really something to care about or really discuss but I thought I should address your question. Personally, I would like the Twins to set their roster budget near $175 million. Sadly, they have not contacted me.

A continuing question remains ...... Where will the roster budget rest ? There is quite a divide on TD on that front, apparent from those who propose free agent signings to contracts that may or may not fit, all depending on the final dollar settings. When the offseason began, there were optimistic projections of near $170 million and then the online TD budget tool figure of $150 million. A vague rather flip comment from Falvey suggested that the budget was out of alignment, or some such words to that effect, and that a natural correction to the roster expenditures would occur reflecting several years of overspending. Thereafter, a general range of $125-140 million was put into numerous articles and became the new obscure reality. The bottom figure seemed to indicate the number where a much reduced media deal might push the new roster numbers. Meanwhile, the Twins have passed on just about everything, which has been in any event the usual norm, meaning really nothing or no reason to worry yet. So we wait .... and hope that Falvey has lost Joey Gallo's contacts.

Too bad Houston didn't have that report on Julien.

Way too early to make any guesses about players who have not made it to AA ball yet. On the other hand, we can be excited about the potential of any number of prospects in the Twins system. The physical talent needs to meet the maturation process and deal with days and weeks of failure and then adjustments are made along the line. I can remember going to a game in Dunedin in July years ago where the starting pitcher for the Blue Jays minor league team struck out the side for three consecutive innings on about 35 pitches. The top of the 4th inning that same pitcher gave up three mammoth home runs on consecutive pitches. The manager walked out and took him out. Baseball is tough, there are lessons to learn. I was glad to see the Twins take a chance on signing Winokur because he is athletic. It will be interesting to see how he does this coming year. The same goes for Charlee Soto. Meanwhile other players up the line will be trying to make their mark. The minor leagues are always fun to follow.

The folks who write for Twins Daily have done a remarkable job of churning out content on a consistent basis to the point where Twins fans have no need of The Athletic, MLB.com, or the Trib for interesting content. Whether there is agreement, disagreement, or occasional disinterest readers can find a post. Thank you to all of those who write the posts. I appreciate the writing and especially the work that goes into the product. Often I go immediately into my thoughts on an article, which is as it should be, but felt it necessary (for me) to preface any further comments with a genuine word (or two) of thanks. Slaughterhouse-Five is one of the best anti-war books ever written. Would that we had literate politicians who could read and reflect. Numerous WWII veterans, including my father, commented on the brilliance of this work as the best commentary on war. An interesting choice for a baseball post. The Baltimore Orioles have an absolutely loaded system and the Twins were already quite kind in their giving them Cade Povich and Cano. It seems that the search for pitching has reached a fever pitch, more perhaps than at any time in my memory. The Orioles managed to finish 7th best in MLB in both runs scored and in runs given up, a balanced team. The Twins, for comparison, finished 10th in runs scored and 3rd in runs given up. The Twins lost some pitchers and have some hopes that their offense of the second half of 2023 will hold for an entire season in 2024. This leads me to a few conclusions. The Twins cannot afford to trade pitching prospects who are close to MLB ready unless they are a part of a larger deal which returns a potential front of the rotation pitcher with four or more years of control. While Dean Kremer is a fine pitcher, I do not see a transaction for him because 1) the Orioles need to keep the pitching they have and add to their staff and 2) the Twins have a sufficient lineup of guys who fill the middle and back end of a starting rotation. All of Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Louie Varland, and Chris Paddack are solid pitchers. The Twins need to add a guy who could fit in above these guys. Right now, the market is still unsteady but there may be an opportunity for the Twins to acquire their guy in a trade. It looks like we will wait until then.

This has been mol what I have been saying in all of the move RL here or there discussions. Lewis can improve at third base. It is the position he has always been most comfortable playing. He was a 3B in high school and the Twins tried to make him a shortstop and then a brief trial in CF. I don't see him as anywhere but as a corner infielder. Then, it is back to where Brooks Lee plays. The decision impacts potential trades and any addition of either Polanco or Kepler in a package deal.

It is hard to think what the Marlins are looking for from a team like the Twins. Certainly, Miami can still use a starting catcher and shortstop. I'm in general agreement with Matthew Trueblood: BTV and the Marlins are fishing. I wonder how Miami views the lost money this year on Alcantara (TJ surgery with a 2025 return)? Alcantara has three years after 2024 to provide value but at a cost of $55.6 million. Twins interested? Both Edward Cabrera and Max Meyer have not proven themselves even to the extent of Louie Varland, so they are guys who are interesting possibilities but only at a reasonable cost. The Twins would have a problem trading Ryan Jeffers but perhaps a wider trade can be considered. Alcantara, Meyer, and Cabrera come to Minnesota, while Jeffers, Farmer, Larnach, and minor league players go south (Woods Richardson, Schobel, and Raya). I'm not sure Luzardo is available but Cabrera is going to be discussed. I'm not in on Rogers. I would do trade number three.

I sure hope that Royce Lewis can be 80% of the superstar that folks are projecting him to be in the next seven years. That would be sweet.

Las Vegas exists because the odds in gambling always favor the house in the long run. The calls to trade Polanco, Kepler, Vazquez, and Farmer to clear money in order to sign a FA pitcher has been a near mantra. The Twins would not have any problem clearing all of Polanco, Kepler, and Farmer if they were just dumping their contracts. It would also be malpractice because unless the return is reasonable the team would be weakened. The Twins cannot trade Vazquez and replace him and save any appreciable amount of money and Christian is still a decent catcher. They paid the money to have the assurance of having a catcher. When a pitcher throws the ball, there needs to be a catcher. So forget about any reasonable savings that would acrrue from trading Vazquez. The savings from dumping all of Jorge, Max, and Kyle could be $27 million. How many of you (readers) would bet $100 that the Twins will then turn around and sign a free agent pitcher such as Snell or Montgomery, or miraculously contact Yamamoto? The odds are not in your favor. The Twins have a winning roster right now and there may be a trade or two before April. If you are looking to add a strong pitcher via trade, think names such as Lewis, Lee, Julien, Wallner, etc.

To be clear, there are a couple of points to consider. The Twins can always use a guy like Polanco. Jorge could easily rebound and be among the top three Twins players again in 2024. Polanco can also help the Pirates. He remains an excellent MLB player. The Pirates need pitching and the Twins are not going to trade one of their top 5-7 starting pitchers along with Polanco to Pittsburgh. Priester could emerge this season as a strong guy in the rotation for the Pirates, so it really doesn't make sense for them to trade a young pitcher. The Twins have players to cover the loss of Polanco to a reasonable extent. Acquiring Priester for Polanco plus a low level player and cash (?/$5M) makes a ton of sense for the Twins because Priester is the type of player who could move up later and help in 2024 as a strong pitcher in line behind Varland. I don't expect this trade to come to fruition, although it is an interesting exercise.

Royce Lewis created a mound of local love with his return to baseball last season. He is now seen, by many, as the face of the Twins and his charisma has certainly made Twins fans excited about his next year and beyond. Lewis has had two ACL surgeries and some trouble, of unknown degree, with his hamstrings as well. Because the Twins still control Royce for five years, it might be prudent to wait a few years. However, the deals proposed could work with inexpensive buyouts because they are not significantly more than expected arbitration figures. Royce has lifetime money already and may prefer to bet on himself. One can see the arguments from all sides. I expect the Twins to wait another year before approaching Lewis with an interest in long term contracts.

We will know what the plans are if a trade of .... say ...... Polanco plus money and maybe a lower level unranked prospect is sent to Pittsburgh for Priester. That would be a potentially good outcome for both teams, although the Pirates have said they are not trading pitchers.

Quinn Priester is a strong prospect still. Despite having a rough introduction to MLB, the young gun could easily fashion a fine career. His value seems to have gone down from a year ago, but I believe the Pirates would ask for quite a bit more than expected because of his previous ranking as a prospect. They might agree to Polanco plus some cash for Priester. A bigger issue would be how Priester fits into the Twins 2024 season. He doesn't really jump into line behind Lopez or even Ryan or Ober. The Twins should be trying to win in 2024 and Polanco gives them a better chance to do so than Priester in 2024. The Twins are little light on outfielders to offer Kepler plus money for Priester for about the same reason. I expect Quinn Priester to break out some time this coming year or in 2025. The Twins are not looking ahead though.