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tony&rodney

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Everything posted by tony&rodney

  1. tony&rodney
    I totally agree with this comparison. The concern with Paddack, which was voiced by both Perkins and Hawkins in an interview at TwinsFest, is that his innings and outings need to be closely monitored for stress. Hopefully he beats the over/under of 120 innings, but the Twins will want him healthy for 2025 too. There will be times to skip Paddack in the rotation, but I do think he replaces Maeda very nicely. Quickly, I state my appreciation to Maeda for his outings. He was mostly very good but had less room for error when his control was off as do all pitchers with less velocity. Paddack has good velocity and we hope he has an excellent year.
  2. tony&rodney
    I'm not sure how to communicate with those who have so little faith in Louie Varland. He has a 4.40 MLB ERA. He compares to some extent to Bryce Miller with a 4.32 ERA and Bryan Woo with a 4.24 ERA, both of whom are seen as stalwarts after one season. I think I'm real close on those numbers. We can pick away at the differences but the main idea is that if a pitcher is ever to become a bonafide middle or even good backend member of a starting rotation, those guys needs to get the ball. Varland has the pitches, the stamina, and the work ethic to succeed. Anthony DeSclafani would fit just fine as a swingman in the bullpen. While teams need multiple starting pitchers during any given year, my pure speculation is that the Twins cannot count on Cleveland and Detroit to crater again this season. Last season, Mahle went down fast and Ober began his run of starts in late April. Varland does not need his innings monitored after reaching 150 in each of the last two years. The Twins best shot out of the gate is with their best pitchers.
  3. tony&rodney
    The answer to all dilemmas and worries is Louie Varland. I may be a voice in the wilderness but it has spoken.
  4. tony&rodney
    Doubt the Pohlads buy lottery tickets.
  5. tony&rodney
    This is so true which is why I had hoped that the Twins would keep Polanco. So it goes. I'm just hoping for the best.
  6. tony&rodney
    Varland is written in ink in the rotation for me. 180 innings of ball with somewhere in the vicinity of 4.00-4.50 ERA. He is in nearly the same spot as Ober was last year but the Twins do not have a Mahle this year. We each pick our guys, right?
  7. tony&rodney
    When I have listened to Julien's interviews in the past it seemed like he was surprised to be playing major league baseball. Most players have it in their heads that they will be stars some day once they become really good in high school, some earlier. Trust me, I have heard that from a thousand players. Julien sounded different in a few interviews since the end of the season. I think he awoke to the possibilities for himself. I'm thinking Julien could bust out in a big way.
  8. tony&rodney
    Actually, several people (including me) on Twins Daily were suggesting/ trying to pry Cabrera away from the Marlins the offseason before this one. The hope was that a blockbuster deal for Cabrera and Luzardo for Arraez could be done. Both players were not as highly thought of then, although they still carried a decent price. People also suggested Lopez but the consensus for many (influenced by BTV) was that the Marlins would want Arraez plus two more considerable pieces for Lopez. Most of my plans for 2023 centered on acquiring both Cabrera and Luzardo because I too believed that Miami would not trade Pablo. Shows you what we all know.
  9. tony&rodney
    I'm just wondering if you are jousting/playing the grumpy old man Gladden routine where he gets down on everything as opposed to the excited happy Gladden who loves everyone and everything? Gladden's two routines can be funny, in a way. Or, do you feel the Twins will struggle to be a .500 team? The post is on the starting pitching. Would you take the five starters from last year versus the five from this year? 2023 = Gray, Lopez, Ryan, Mahle, Maeda? 2024 = Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Varland, Paddack?
  10. tony&rodney
    I think that none of the above may be your initial choice. However, perhaps you want Lewis in the outfield, so there - click that box. I chose none of the above because the logjam is not apparent yet.
  11. tony&rodney
    Cabrera was a trade I proposed last November, but I put him in the bullpen. He is out of options and a little shaky with his control, but basically unhittable when going well. In terms of coaching, I love the cool and confidence that Maki projects. However, we should remember that Miami is a franchise that seems to develop more pitchers than most organizations and certainly more than the Twins. It might be a stretch to say out guys could do what their guys could not accomplish. Still, sometimes an organizational change and some maturation wakes up a player and helps them to focus where before they had problems.
  12. tony&rodney
    These are likely ongoing front office debates. The cost ($25,55) of Vazquez, Farmer, Santana, and DeSclafani could perhaps be spent on a single or two better players. Sometimes it does seem like those smaller contracts will get cut off more. That said, the conversations may counter that a Hoskins can bomb or get injured which negates the ability to add those peripheral players who can be critical to a team's depth. Agree that Vazquez was added at a time of need at the price the market set.
  13. tony&rodney
    Just curious - did you see him play when he was in high school or later when he played for Auburn?
  14. tony&rodney
    I agree that Lewis will not be traded. Lewis would be the name in a big trade. I don't think the Twins should trade Lewis. This is why the Twins do not have either Kirby or Gilbert right now. They are not willing to trade Lewis. I agree with that, although I have hesitated and weighed the pros and cons many times. The Twins have one pitcher that is in their rotation who was developed in the system, Bailey Ober. It is now time to completely remove the limitations from Louie Varland. He belongs in the rotation. Furthermore, i believe he is a key to the staff. Why? Because Varland has stamina and can deliver 180 innings of 4.00 - 4.50 pitching. None of the others considered for the back of the rotation can deliver that production. Varland is a big reason I would not trade Royce Lewis for George Kirby. While Varland will not come close to being the ace that Kirby is, having Lewis at third base along with Varland's more than decent pitching for a #4 starter makes the Twins a better team.
  15. tony&rodney
    I'm a little confused as to the title of the post. National writers and various prediction engines (ZIPS, etc.) all predict the Twins to have a minimum of a top ten rotation. Going into last season, the Twins were not in the top half of baseball. If your starting staff this year has greater respect in predictions than the starting staff that started last year did, how does that equate to fallen? Might be a good idea to wait until the year is finished before we compare 2023 to 2024.
  16. tony&rodney
    The comparisons from the start of each season is a fair thing to do. You cannot compare how a pitcher X did last season to how pitcher Y did this season. This season has not been played. Pablo Lopez was an hopeful unknown last season, but he is now looked at as a potential Cy Young Award guy. Joe Ryan was looked on as a solid guy and he still is. Experience should mean he is better. Bailey Ober was seen as someone who could be counted on and now he is counted on. Louie Varland has pitched effectively but is still unproven. Sonny Gray was proven and pitched wonderfully. Chris Paddack closed last season looking healthy and should replace Kenta Maeda who entered last season in a similar position to where Paddack is currently. Anthony DeSclafani says he is 100% entering Spring Training as did Tyler Mahle last year. So there it is, apples to apples. Gray gives the 2023 staff a big win, Paddack/Maeda is a wash, Lopez, Ryan, Ober are a plus for this year, and DeScla cannot be any worse than Mahle unless he too goes down for the year. Final tally is 3-1 with 2 draws in favor of the 2024 starting staff. If you want to compare how each starting staff does, wait until November of this year.
  17. tony&rodney
    The answer depends on how you felt about the guys who left and whether you expected them (if resigned) to be better than what is present currently. Health is always the key. Pablo Lopez was pretty good last year. I hope he repeats. Joe Ryan had a good year but should be even better this season with experience and health. Ober should better than last year with more experience. Paddack should be good for 100-120 innings of solid pitching, enough to replace Maeda, who was good. Sonny Gray cannot be replaced. Mahle was a loss due to injury. I believe that Varland can be very good. In summation, the starting staff clearly needs to be healthy but that is true for every team every year. I'm as bullish on the 2024 starters as I was for the 2023 ones. I also think an improved offense this year should help the pitchers.
  18. tony&rodney
    None of Kirilloff, Julien, Lewis, or Wallner have even one year at the MLB level. Lee (Happy Birthday to him) has just 168 PA at AAA. We are getting way ahead of ourselves here. Does anyone remember a player by the name of Jose Miranda?
  19. tony&rodney
    The lower numbers for Funderburk may well be due to uncertainty of his appearances/innings due to options. The same can be said for Varland. I'm hoping with the depth of the pen that the Twins choose the best pitchers for their staff. The Twins opened last year with Sonny Gray, Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, and Kenta Maeda. Ober had a great camp but it would have been rare to choose him over a returning, healthy, accomplished veteran. That decision made sense. This is not the situation this year. Lopez, Ryan, and Ober are the returning, healthy, accomplished vets now. That leaves two rotation spots. The Twins are invested in Paddack for the #5 SP position. He will need to have his starts and innings monitored. There isn't any reason to not make the #4 SP spot a competition in camp. The Twins should be playing to win.
  20. tony&rodney
    Perhaps the title perfectly describes why nothing will be done for several months at least. The logjam is only apparent at this time as you state. Is Kirilloff healthy enough to play on a regular basis? If he is then 1B is set for quite some time because that swing will play in any lineup. Does Julien continue with his strengths at the plate while making additional strides as a fielder? If so, 2nd is set. Will Lewis blossom as all hope and expect? If so, 3rd looks set. Can Wallner make the needed adjustments to be a full time regular? If so, he is a lock in the lineup. Can all of these players avoid injuries? The depth is solid now with Farmer, Castro, Martin, and others ready to play. I believe Brooks Lee will be a very good MLB player. How will he do early this year in AAA? It seems to me that the Twins have a full year to see how each of their young players develops before they need to make any decisions on moving someone to another position or making a guy available in a trade. They certainly had conversations about all of these players with other clubs during the offseason and decided to hold for now. Got to know when to hold em.
  21. tony&rodney
    Well, as a previous comment mentioned, teams prefer to keep some of their guys in camp for a few weeks and playing in warm weather. The Twins have some significant funds invested in Jenkins and a month of Florida weather in April beats the vagaries of whatever might be occurring in Cedar Rapids. If all goes perfectly, expect Jenkins in Iowa no sooner than May.
  22. tony&rodney
    Last season, it seemed like the Twins carried a pitcher in the bullpen who rarely actually pitched in games. The relief pile looks pretty good right now. Hopefully the Twins are a little more proactive about using everyone. The post points out that the pen is pretty full with Duran, Stewart, Jax, Thielbar, Jackson, Topa, and Okert seemingly set. That leaves some pretty decent arms (Alcala, Funderburk, Winder, Sands, Weiss, and others) trying to squeeze into one slot or waiting for their shot while pitching for the Saints. Staumont, if healthy, is a strong pitcher too. I can't disagree that having a host of options increases the odds of success for the bullpen, but do feel for guys like Funderburk who are good enough to be relied on consistently but because of options are long shots to start the season on the roster. The one area where I want to see a clear positive decision concerns Louie Varland. I don't really care that he has options. Unless DeSclafani is fully healthy and displays better pitches than Varland in March, Varland should be the #4 starting pitcher. I'm fine going with DeSclafani if it is clear that he is the better pitcher with superior stuff. If not, and if DeScla is fully healthy, the last bullpen position can go to him (DeScla). It would not be a surprise for Staumont, DeSclafani, or someone else to need a stint on the IL out of training camp. A number of people are still hoping for a TOR pitcher and I'm not opposed to that if we are talking about Luzardo or much better. That means no pointless signings of shredded guys like Syndergaard or Lorenzen. I'm not too worried about Falvey handing out long term deals to Montgomery or Snell. The pitching looks good.
  23. tony&rodney
    JB is 6'-5" and listed at 215 pounds (looking bigger). DF is 6'-6" and listed at 185 pounds (looking like 155). JB had AA/AAA WHIPs of 1.40, 1.97, and 1.73 with BAA of .255, .338, and .269. Jordan had innings where he looked good but really struggled at AA and AAA in the last three years. He is still in the system and will be at AAA. Festa only pitched at AA and AAA last season. He looked really good for 3-5 innings before losing it at times. In AA, DF had a WHIP of 1.36, a BAA of .249 with less hits than innings pitched and a ton more strikeouts than innings. In only 12 innings at AAA, DF had 15 SO but also 9 walks. The BAA was .222. A bunch of numbers that essentially say that Festa has to refine his control but can dominate hitters at AAA, whereas Balazovic really never got his feet settled above A ball. Festa is still learning how to focus but seems to be growing quickly into a potential beast on the mound. Balazovic was all over the place in every inning I saw him with little apparent understanding of how to pitch. He was a thrower in AAA. We shall see, but I think you would really enjoy watching the skinny guy pitch.
  24. tony&rodney
    I don't know where you are coming from. I will merely give some information that we know with mild speculation. The Giants tried to sign Correa for more money than the Twins signed him for. Insurance did not sign off for SF, it did for MN. Why? I don't know the details. The Giants now have a prospect just like Lee, Marco Luciano. The Giants are not looking for a shortstop at this time. The Red Sox would not pay their former shortstop (Xander Bogaerts) to a long term contract because Marcelo Mayer is a top ten global prospect, considered the best fielder shortstop prospect among all shortstop prospects. The Red Sox have zero interest in other shortstops. Correa has a no trade contract. These are very difficult and rarely given up, usually only for a much better deal. Unlike most scouts and talent evaluators I believe that it is possible for Brooks Lee to play shortstop in MLB. He is most suited for third base. Absolutely no one would predict Lee to be near as good as Correa at shortstop. On pitching, here is where you and others may grievously disagree, the Twins have a top of the rotation pitcher in Pablo Lopez. Behind him are Ryan, Ober, Varland, and Paddack with DeSclafani available. Numerous sites have ranked the Twins starting pitching anywhere from top 4-9 in baseball. David Festa is a year away and Marco Raya another year behind him with plenty of other arms developing in the system. The Twins have never signed a top free agent pitcher and I'm not even interested in either Snell or Montgomery unless they want to play for $10 million on a one year deal. I'm sure open to trades for any of Luzardo, Kirby, or Gilbert. Do you believe the Twins will trade Royce Lewis and/or Brooks Lee? That would be the price. Brooks Lee will get an opportunity to play major league baseball. The team and position are still unknown, but openings occur in a myriad of fashions. An example .... many have called for Lewis to be moved to the outfield. I don't expect that, but an injury or need could arise and perhaps against all odds Lewis is needed on the grass. If Lee has impressed and shown that he is primed and ready to play with the big boys .... poof, he is our new third baseman. Stuff happens, just not trades of key players who have huge contracts that include a no trade clause. This we can all be certain of, right?
  25. tony&rodney
    He is an elite talent by consensus of virtually anyone in baseball. Is Juan Soto an elite talent? How about Shohei Ohtani? You get the point - there are elite talents whether you or somebody else decides to ignore a specific player. Now would the Twins trade Pablo Lopez for Soto, Ohtani, Betts, Freeman, etc.? Of course not. Money is real and teams won't make a trade for a super expensive player and give up a top of the rotation pitcher who costs very little. The Twins would not trade for Gerrit Cole because their budget does not allow it. The Twins decided to sign Kirby Puckett to the largest (at the time) contract in MLB, they signed Mauer, and they signed Correa. All of these guys are elite talents. You may not like Correa making money and Correa may have had a down year last season but neither of those change the reality of how baseball views Correa - he is elite. Now the Twins and their fans hope he has a great series of seasons strung together.
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