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tony&rodney

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Everything posted by tony&rodney

  1. tony&rodney
    You might be missing the notion that even if all three plus Farmer are traded, the Twins are not signing a free agent to a high dollar contract. It is off the table. There have been plenty of decent fair offers for Polanco and Kepler. The Twins are trading either or both IF the deal results in a better team this season. The Twins are not rebuilding. Right now Kepler is the best outfielder and Polanco is the second best infielder for the coming season. Falvey does not want a repeat of 2022. Any transaction for a starting pitcher is tricky because the players being asked about from the Twins roster are Lewis, Julien, and Lee. The idea of adding Bartolo Colon or another interesting corpse of past success as a MLB pitcher does not meet the bar that the Twins are seeking. We just wait for our surprise.
  2. tony&rodney
    Since the off season began, I have questioned whether the Twins could add any players of note via free agency due to payroll limitations and have noted the raises due to Pablo Lopez, Carlos Correa, and the host of guys who shall receive raises via arbitration. Sure it would be sweet to roster Rhys Hoskins and Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery but it does not look like that is a reality. Moving contracts doesn't necessarily help either because big dollars are unlikely to be doled out. The post focuses on Lee or Julien as a choice but fails to raise a name being discussed, Lewis. I'm not a fan of moving any of the pre-arb players for the reasons in MLR's quote. The offense will need to step forward in a big way this season. The pitching is decent as is but the Twins would love to add a #2 starting pitcher. If there is a big trade made for someone who can make a difference then the Twins may need to open up to the possibility of moving Lewis or Lee or Julien. The decision rests largely in the demands of another team versus the willingness of Falvey to move on a deal. Whenever anyone conceives of a trade they should imagine themselves as a huge fan of the other team to see what may be fair and reasonable to each team.
  3. tony&rodney
    No way.
  4. tony&rodney
    I would say that Mauer was the best catcher of his era and if there was a vote of managers, scouts, and GMs across baseball where they could not vote for their own team's catcher, Mauer would receive a healthy majority of the votes. Think of it as picking a team. The consensus pick would definitely be Mauer.
  5. tony&rodney
    The idea of making room for a young prospect who is ready to make significant contributions is pretty common when the player being replaced is injured or declining in productivity. A really good example is Arraez coming into the lineup for Schoop or Julien being called up to fill a spot for an injured Polanco. Where things get complicated is when a prospect is ready and the positions are filled with young players just getting established and developing themsleves. The future is unknown, but all of Kirilloff, Miranda, Julien, and Lewis are young and have potential right now to produce. If these guys are all producing it makes opportunity less obvious and that is a very real scenario for Brooks Lee this summer. I can easily see both Kirilloff and Julien improving much more rapidly than expected by many fans, although injuries and the unknown always remain. The young pitchers can get opportunities for a start here and there, provide valuable relief innings, and be optioned if they struggle or are not needed for a stretch. Positions players usually need a little more rope because no batter goes day after day without having an 0-4 occasionally. Farmer and Polanco are ideal players to fill the lineup in the field from time to time or in Jorge's case DH as well. The Twins infield should be tough to crack this season.
  6. tony&rodney
    2024 should be very interesting as far as watching who develops and shows the skills needed for specific positions. I am keeping an open mind. Why? Because when I watched Julien early last season i thought he played frightened in the field, frankly he was close to brutal. The last two plus months Julien calmed down and not only did he make the plays but we began to see some range too. He still has a ways to go but the improvement was real. Lewis looks pretty beefy. He has a good arm and fair quickness for third base. I do think he would play a good first base. Still, Lewis is an open book with very little time behind him at the MLB level. His bat looked good, for sure. I saw Brooks Lee quite a bit and he is steady at shortstop. I don't think it is fair to compare him to Correa. Lee is still getting better. These three should show their talents in multiple ways this season and perhaps they all fit in the same infield. I suspect that Alex Kirilloff is aware of the task ahead for him and he will have quite a bit to say about how the infield shakes out in the coming year. Health, as always, is a critical point but the development of Lee, Lewis, Julien, and Kirilloff could be fun. Oh, we might want to remember Jose Miranda as well.
  7. tony&rodney
    Do you think Lee will push Lewis off of 3B? Since his first year of college scouts have projected him to be a very good third baseman as a MLB player.
  8. tony&rodney
    Tough to trade Raya and Lee and maybe the Twins need to add a couple of guys like Yasser Mercedes and Zebby Matthews ..... tough call to make.
  9. tony&rodney
    Money, money, money. Matt Moore would be guy of interest from your list. Rhys Hoskins would be a nice addition, but $$$.
  10. tony&rodney
    What planning are you expecting?
  11. tony&rodney
    This seems to be as good of an answer as anything really. Health and mind are critical to success.
  12. tony&rodney
    You didn't forget Andrelton Simmons, did you?
  13. tony&rodney
    Farmer is a good player, underrated because he is a utility guy for the Twins. DeSclafani cost $12M and hasn't been good in three years. Think Dobnak. The Mariners wanted to dump Ray and saw haniger and DeSclafaini plus money as a worthwhile deal for the future.
  14. tony&rodney
    In the category of total pure speculation, Kepler seemed very unhappy early in the season for whatever reasons. Later in the year we saw Max smiling and engaging with others in the dugout which did not seem to occur even when he did something good or the team won early in the year. Kepler is a bit of a mystery. To me, Max and Jorge are the heart of the team. Each has had injuries and struggled to perform to their expectations at times but they are not old. I have no idea what it is but both Polanco and Kepler seem like they could be really good for another five years if they are fully content.
  15. tony&rodney
    Austin Martin seems like he has a good shot to be present for Opening Day in Kansas City.
  16. tony&rodney
    Ok, great. That would work for me too. Now do you think Miami would trade Luzardo for Lee or that Seattle would trade Gilbert or Kirby for Lee? Do the Twins need to add someone? Trading for a #2 SP looks tough.
  17. tony&rodney
    Injuries vary from year to year and from team to team. The Twins had some players go on the IL: March - Celestino, Polanco, Winder, Henriquez, Kirilloff April - Kepler, Gallo, Farmer, Maeda May - Mahle, Thielbar, Kepler, Alcala, Polanco, Larnach, Gordon June - Gallo, Sands, Buxton, Thielbar, Polanco, De Leon, Stewart July - Lewis, Miranda, Buxton, Kirilloff August - Ryan, Buxton, Castro, Ortega September - Taylor, Gallo, Correa, Lewis, Moran, Keuchal Plenty of teams had more injuries and this list does not differentiate 10,15,60 day lists. The pitchers were relatively healthy. Missing pitchers like Ryan Mahle, Thielbar, Stewart, Alcala, and Winder does weaken the staff. Position players like Kirilloff, Miranda, Polanco, Lewis, Farmer, Correa, Kepler, Taylor, and Buxton missed enough time to weaken the lineup. Although the Twins began 2023 with strong depth and receieved help from the minor league call-ups, I disagree that the team didn't suffer any notable absence from players due to injury. I have followed Fangraphs for a long time but they are a national outfit and have huge holes in their knowledge of many smaller market organizations. The reliance on data is entertaining but never tells a complete picture. In some ways, the sophistication of the plethora of numbers still results in predictions and writing that mirrors the reports from Baseball Digest, The Sporting News, Sports Illustrated, and others from decades long past; same same but different. It is all good fun but the season plays out in unpredictable fashions.
  18. tony&rodney
    I am confused why there is a conversation about Correa's contract and whether or not to trade him. He has a no trade deal. The contract has been in force for a year and has five years left before options are considered. It is in the past and there is nothing to be done about it. The Correa deal is part of how the Pohlad's have put the team together. The Pohlads signed Joe Mauer to a contract once upon a time and made a ton of money off of that deal. Looking backwards is rather pointless. Right now, it appears the Twins are being very cautious given the collapse of their media monies. Despite many people suggesting that it should not be a big deal and that something else will replace it, the Pohlad's have determined otherwise and are tightening up the roster budget at this time. Again, it just is the way it is. Replaying events from the past doesn't change them. If you feel the Twins need a pitcher now, make a realistic suggestion for a means of acquiring that guy. The contracts to question are the ones that have not been finished yet. For example, I believe it is not a good time, in consideration of the financial uncertainties right now, for the Twins to sign any large long term contracts. Any significant trades will need to come at the expense of losing one or more of our favored young players. Perhaps the time to trade is not now if the team and/or fans are unwilling to lose a major guy(s).
  19. tony&rodney
    ZIPS is highly respected and frequently used by folks in their analysis of teams and players. Sadly, it does nothing for me and I have followed it from the beginning. Cannot ever get my head around its usefulness. We already know that poor teams face longer odds and stacked rosters project to win more games. We also know that tweener teams, like the Twins, could win somewhere from 80+ to 90+ games. Such is life.
  20. tony&rodney
    Would you trade Pablo Lopez for Lee? Julien? What kind of deal would work using all players in the Twins system to trade for Lopez? Every team wants more pitching.
  21. tony&rodney
    Interesting thought. I will take the under at 120 innings for Paddack if he has perfect health. Do you think the Twins will use Matt Canterino as a starter for 125+ innings. This seems dubious at best. Hopefully he is healthy and gets some time in relief for the Twins. Ober is a weird dude. He hasn't had arm issues and often looks like he could throw all day. His issues are command in the strike zone. Ryan has a rubber arm. Hopefully he avoids leg injuries.
  22. tony&rodney
    I'm hoping Louie is the #4 pitcher. Varland has thrown 150 innings each of the last two years. He will not have any restrictions. I put Paddack at #5 because he is coming off of his second TJ surgery and has never thrown more than 140 innings and that was in 2019. He should be handled very carefully. 120 innings would be terrific for Paddack and set him up nicely for 2025. The real unknown is how many innings the team receives from guys like Festa, Woods Richardson, Headrick, and others.
  23. tony&rodney
    Interesting experiment. If one just throws out the name of Royce Lewis, instant recoil, disfavor, and derision is a result. No need to wait hours to see the full reaction. The Twins have a decent team right now, but Kirby or Gilbert, just to name two, are not available for prospects or Polanco/Kepler plus prospects. I'm assuming the one player totally off limits is Walker Jenkins. While the Twins should keep Royce Lewis to see what they have in the young third baseman, he is the only name that would work in a deal for a top starting pitcher. The Larnach (fill in the name) plus similar others doesn't work. The idea of strengthening the offense is one I can get behind. The Twins had some solid depth last season, which has already been pointed out. Trading any of Polanco, Kepler, Farmer, or Vazquez weakens that depth after the team has already seen Solano, Farmer, and Gallo move on as expected. Those three had 1170 PA. I think Riverbrain gave a full account on the argument for offense. Nobody has an idea of where the final roster budget will rest. Perhaps someone could put up a poll. Do you think the front office will sign Jordan Montgomery or Blake Snell if trades cleared $27.1 million? That is JP, MK, & KF. The Twins are not signing a high priced free agent. Thus, all talk about putting cost savings toward pitching is moot. Buxton and Correa have no trade clauses in their contracts. Discussions of that type belong in the fantasy league sections. Other teams face similar difficult situations. Seattle gets discussed quite a bit and Trader Jerry has been spinning the roster and clearing money. Seattle has a couple of fine utility players and feel that a return to Seattle will help resurrect Haniger. So Raley and Haniger vs. Wallner and Kepler? Urias and Rojas vs. Lewis and Polanco/Julien? Really pointless because there is an entire roster to consider, but you get the idea. Every team faces some challenges. The Twins need all of their starting pitchers to do their best and the offense needs to take a big step forward in the coming year.
  24. tony&rodney
    So maybe if getting a good starting pitcher is so important the Twins should be discussing what type of return is possible for Royce Lewis.
  25. tony&rodney
    Farmer and Polanco can both play first base.
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