Brandon

The OF and Starting Rotation is actually pretty solid. The areas of concern are the IF and bullpen. for the pen, I can see the Twins signing a reliever to a major league contract and signing two or three to a minor league deal for depth and competition. In the IF the concerns are mostly SS and 1B. The Twins can sign a low cost 1B like Hoskins or bring in an OF like Larnarch or Wallner as the OF will go through a youth movement due to the skill level of their three prospects in AAA ERod, Gonzales and Jenkins. Larnarch and Wallner will start the season with the Twins, I can see them trading Larnarch especially if they sign Hoskins. On the IF the Twins are giving Lewis a last shot to reclaim his future at 3B and Lee as an IF as well. Culpepper will be ready at some point next season. Or atleast we hope. I hope the Twins keep both starting pitchers but with a strong enough offer, I can see the a trade. 2026 is a rebuilding year with a likely goal of .500 and a small chance of competing if enough goes right. Most likely a 70-75 win team is my expectation as the Twins set up to be competitive in 2027.

This is surprisingly a good trade proposal. There is definitely merit as the Twins need a C for 2027 and that is what the trade is for. Eduardo Tait should be ready by 2028 and hopefully get a callup the second half of 2027 to get some on the job training from Rutschman. I think the Twins should just resign Jeffers, but this isn't the worst thing that can happen. Also need to consider what the Twins would get in a trade for Jeffers in a trade as well.

I was thinking Larnarch could move to 1B or DH and get traded if hitting at the trade deadline. Would love to get something for him. I doubt any of the above prospects would take too many at bats away from Larnarch at the start of the season.

When do we find out the draft order? I guess at the winter meetings?

The projected arbitration salary for Larnarch is 4.7 million. Who is to say the Twins can't get him signed before the contract offer deadline and get him signed for 4.1 million or so? I don't think this is that big of an overpay if he continues to hit just better than Kepler. If he can go back to being 15-20% better than league average then he is a value at that price. I think that Falvey will want to give his first rounder another shot. It would be different if Terry Ryan drafted him I think.

Larnarch has just over 4 years of service time. The Twins have two more seasons of control over him. Trevor Larnach Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Rookie Status & More | Baseball-Reference.com

No one seems to be talking about this so I thought I would post it here. The Pohlad's said they paid off the debt from the new investors investing in the team. How much were the payments on that debt that the Twins are no longer paying. Let's look at some possibilities. First the amount of the debt. I understand the debt to be in the neighborhood of 425 million. what is the interest on that debt and is it interest only or fully amortizing? let's look at 5%, 8% 10% and 12%. on interest only we would see annual payments of at 5% = 21,250,000 8% = 34,000,000 at 10% we have 42,500,000 and at 12% = 51 million. if the debt is amortized we get at 5% = 27,377,900 at 8% = 37,421,993 at 10% = 44,756,150 and at 12% = 52,459,242 This is pretty significant and wide range. With all of the cuts to payroll. It seems the Twins are back to profitability but also they have this newfound resource to reinvest into the team if they so desired. I would think that most of the debt would be int eh 8-10% range some possibly lower and recent debt higher. The Twins are definately saving more than they are losing on the TV deal. and with Revenue Sharing and Attendance revenue The Twins should have a good solid amount of revenue.

I think the Twins plan revolves around many young and inexperienced players. Keaschal, Wallner, Lee, Martin, Gonzales, Jenkins, E Rod, Culpepper, and eventually Tait at C. and also young pitchers, Woods- Richardson, Festa, Matthews, Abel, Preliepp, Rojas, Morris, Ohi and others are all at or near the league minimum. The question is are we better off trading the few vets we have for even more prospects as we could use more pitching prospects. Having all of this low-cost talent will keep payroll low for the next 4 seasons as we develop the next wave of prospects.

Also, these veterans are on short term contracts. Only Buxton goes for the next three seasons. Lopez for two. Ryan has two seasons of team control or two one-year deals. and Jeffers has one year before free agency, and the Twins do not have anyone to replace him.

Or..... instead of trading the extra outfielders for an area of need. Since these guys are not making much we could MOVE them to an area of need too. We need a 1B. Enter Walner. We could use a DH. Enter Larnarch. Now we have two OF spots open and 3 OF prospects E Rod, Jenkins, and Gonzales ready to step in. If Lee succeeds at SS or if Culpepper comes up and succeeds we could finish the year with a really good lineup the second half of the season if all goes well developmentally.

I think the debt issue revolves around COVID and then the Twins invested hoping attendance would grow closer to the 3 million the Twins had after the 87 World Series, and it didn't and then the TV deal fell apart. I think the 425 million give or take also included what the Twins owed for the stadium as well. The Pohlad's are pretty good about finances so I imagine those would be the biggest parts of the reason why the debt is so high. I think the debt issue and bleaker look at comparable finances across the league is the culprit for wha't happening with the Twins.

I guess I was referring to a player needs 1500 AB to see what you have…cause the hitter needs to learn to make adjustments.

Let him hit next year and see what a full season of AB does for him. He is still in the learning phase of his game. He hits the ball pretty hard. Like top 5 in the league if I remember correctly. If you’re thinking of selling your stock because it dropped a little, I will gladly pay you Pennie’s on the dollar because of your fear of loss. if Walner gets worse and even bad we have 3 starting OF prospects starting in AAA who have all been top 100 prospects at one time.

You may be right. But he is also one arm injury away from missing out on a big contract. Maybe he signs a 4, or 5, deal. Maybe he rides it out. I can tell you that I’m not sure of what the ideal contract extension would be. I for one would not go over 5 years. 4 is my comfort level. It’s not like he has the best pure stuff. If his stuff deteriorates as he ages, It could be a big loss of effectiveness.

This is your all-time best post.

If the Phillies are looking to trade Nick Castellanos or release him, I wonder if the Twins could swing a trade and have him play 1B? The Phillies would need to pay 18-19 million of the 20 million owed in any deal. This would get us a power hitting 1B -DH. We could still offer Santana or France a million contract to be defensive specialist at 1B.

This is definitely a rebuilding year roster of players easy to jettison for sure. We have lots of prospects coming up and we are on a budget so low cost ads. My first attempt I had a better 1B and kept Ober and kept Larnarch . These players I had to subtract to make the budget work.

Ryan is not getting 6 years in FA. He has 2 years till FA. He will turn 32 the first year of his new. Contract. He will likely get 3-4 years in FA. A good guarantee now is a great idea for someone like him. Arguing for what amount and if this contract should be 5 years instead of 4 is valid.

Ryan has two years of arbitration and the offer was a 4 year deal to include two years of FA. I figured around 60-64 million for the 4 season based on 20 million per season. He might could get 25 million in FA. You could add 3 million per season to his total if you like. But I also took into account the Twins would want a discount. I figured 4 million. What do you think Ryan will make over next 4 seasons?

Since the Twins don’t have anyone else for the bullpen he obviously stays. If the Twins had say 5 reliable bullpen arms then I would think it’s a real decision. But I think he stays.

I only have them hitting triple digits as a result of paying Correa. The gamble is that enough rookies show enough promise to be a .500 team next year if they tank to low the Twins could sell off at the trade deadline. I think if their payroll drops below 80 million the union will say something as will the owners paying into revenue sharing.

The Twins have done well in the draft overall. The real way to grade drafts is to see if we are consistently adding 2-3 players to the team per season that stick in the majors. We have several pitchers that were drafted lower that are really good. Varland, Jax, Ober.... those were great draft picks. I mean the Twins drafted that pitcher with the #2 pick that never panned out 20 years ago. We drafted Gorden 4th overall and he was ok but not that good. not all first round picks make it. I think Jenkins will be really good. I think Larnarch and Lee have been the most disappointing so far. but both are still producing and hopefully getting better.

Here is my initial take on the upcoming Twins offseason. It would be nice to have the Twins Daily blueprint available to edit and post, I have one I can use still for here so I will do the best with what I got. The Twins will be on a limited budget next season, and they are bringing up several rookies next year. We need to keep some veterans to show the rookies how it works in the majors. Here are my transactions. 1. Sign Ryan to a 4 year 58 million contract. front load it. 14 million in years one and two and 15 million in years 3 and 4. 2. Sign Jeffers to a 4 year 52 million extension with 13 million each year. 3. Ober will be traded in my scenario. I tried to sign him to a 2 year deal but we do not have the budget for him. I also planned to keep Larnarch too but he too is an expense we can not keep. I wanted these two as depth to help push us over .500 next season. They can do that but we also have players ready to step into their roles. 4. My Plan was to sign a 1B in the 3-8 million range. Ryan O Hearn and Josh Bell seem like the best targets. but we are at budget so at best go cheap here and sign Santana for a million to hold the fort too, I guess. 5. We need to earmark around 5 - 10 million for the pen. maybe not 10 but .... Lets be able to sign 3 or 4 to minor league contracts with invites to spring training. and sign 1 or 2 relievers. Hunter Strickland is a decent reliever we could sign for around 3 million a season. I wonder if we could resign Danny Couloumbe or Theilbar for around 3-4 million next season. Those would be our big budget ads. then to see if we can sign the minor league contracts. I think we keep both Topa and Tonkin, provided Tonkin resigns for around 1.1-1.2 million. Now lets look at our budget. Are we a potential .500 team next year: C Jeffers 13 million 1B Gonzales .75 mil 2B Keaschall .75 mil SS Lee .75 mil 3B Lewis 4.0 mil LF Martin .75 mil CF Buxton / Jenkins 15 mil / .75 mil RF E Rod .75 mil DH Wallner .75 mil C Vazquez 3.00 1B/ OF Clemens .75 1B Santana 1 million Total offense = 42 million ROtation Lopez 21,75 Ryan 13 mil Bradley or Matthews .75 mil Woods-Richardson .75 mil Abel .75 mil Sands 1.3mil Topa 2.0 million Tonkin 1.2 million Coulumbe 3.5 million Hunter Strickland 4 mil 3 other relievers totaling around 2.3-3 million. Pitching costs: 52 11 million Correa Total cost is 105 million (I can see the Twins going to 105 to as high a 108 million) I think they prefer under 100 million and its that way if they take out the 11 million for Correa but they won't want to add the full 11 million back in. This is my best educated guess for next season and gives us a chance at .500 if some of the rookies perform. Hopefully the Budget will eventually go back up when they get better TV revenue and regain fan interest. but front loading Jeffers and Ryan help like the Polanco and Kepler extensions of yesteryear.

This should probably be a blog post but as is the rotation is pretty solid with lots of candidates to be the 5th starter. Pavlov, Ryan, Ober, Woods-Richardson, (Abel, Matthews, Bradley) The bullpen needs help big time but a few can come from within and a few low cost additions and we could have a serviceable pen. Offense has a youth movement coming in (Culpepper, Jenkins, Gonzales, E Rodriguez,). There are also several inexpensive 1B hitting FA. I think the keys are Lewis rebounding and Lee developing and One or two rookies taking off and the offense is good and we are competing. we wouldn’t be a pennant winning team but possibly above.500 it all depends on development 2027 appears to be more of the same hence the importance of front loading extensions for Ryan and Jeffers.

I would keep him for a lower contract. For Tonkin, he’s been here and there are so many openings in the pen. There is no better opportunity to stay on a roster then here….