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Brandon

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Everything posted by Brandon

  1. Brandon
    In 2025 I think we are set at C and SS. We are not going to have top prospects at all positions at all times.
  2. Brandon
    I thought you were talking about salaries dragging the teams options down. Also I would put Buxton before Julien on this list.
  3. Brandon
    Count the prospects traded for Mahle and Lopez and the list of development gets even better in the Twins favor. Steer, Povich, Encarnacion, Cano, …. Also the Twins have a high floor at each position going into next season. They could use a stabilizing veteran that can play 2B and 1rst. But otherwise they seem all set and it’s a matter of further development and health for their players.
  4. Brandon
    I was actually fine with the Pohlads as owners until this last season. That was such a huge gut punch to tell the fans you are hoping to push towards a 180 million payroll and then get pushed back 25million. I was happy with the Twins having a responsible 150-160 million payroll that allows them to sign a deal or two at market prices and bargain bin a few deals and home grown the rest. The Pohlads botched their TV deal and fan morale so badly last year. This is now the best outcome. I hope with new owners they can work out regional TV deals and get more fans from all over Twins Territory so attendance hits 2.8 million and payroll goes up to the 170-180 million range next year. Or at least the 150-160 million. If we get new owners we have to support them initially anyways to give them a chance.
  5. Brandon
    Basically like you said WAR is typically 10 million in FA. Buxton is getting paid or if he is worth 1.5 WAR we break even. I just kept it simple and said if he gets 2-4 WAR a season he is a bargain. Rooker has 3 more arbitration seasons left before free agency so his first three seasons of his contract are discounted because of this. You need to factor that in if comparing to Buxton contract.
  6. Brandon
    At 15 million per year Buxton is getting paid like a platoon player getting in only 100 games just about at this point. I suspect he will be worth 8-16 WAR over the remaining 4 years and 60 million on his contract. That’s not an overpay by any means. 7.5 to as low as 3.75 million cost per WAR in the expected range of value he is likely to provide. He could even break out a 6 WAR season still. I can see injury concerns knocking him down a little not his contract. The Twins are about to get a new payroll situation as they seem confident a deal for the team is likely to be done by opening day. I wouldn’t hold payroll at 130 million for seasons beyond this one as an absolute.
  7. Brandon
    Clickbait article as Rosario and Raya are pretty good prospects. Raya is probably not far from being a top 100 either. The Twins first pick was 27th. That’s not as much of a sure thing as a top 5. Every one knows this. The Twins have done fine with their high school picks. All Star and Falvey draft pick Brent Rooker says 🙋‍♂️ hi.
  8. Brandon
    We don’t know yet how the trade tree will continue to branch off. In a few years what to we get in a Woods-Richardson trade? But another season of what we got last year alone at least ties the trade in terms of value. Assuming you are only counting the year and a half of team control and not his extension he signed with the Jays.
  9. Brandon
    I think a fun exercise is for Twinsdaily. To build a formula that determines value taking into effect all things adding and subtracting value to the team like contract, attitude, offense, defense, starting pitcher , control, walks (both hitters and pitchers), revenue generators and more then we can use that formula to create a top 20 list and compare it to the lists we create and maybe Nick Nelson who created this concept can present it at the SABR convention some year. As for the list so far. It’s as I expected. Nitpicking….. one question is how much of a drag is Correas contract to his value? Is Larnarch really more valuable than Jeffers? Who were the other top options at 20 cause I’m wondering if I put someone other than Julien there at this time? It’s Wallner time! With power hitters I use 1 XBH per 10 AB as a standard metric. Wallner has 62 in 490 AB which is a high number over 1.2 XBH per 10 ABs. And Nick hasn’t even finished the countdown yet. Looking forward to it.
  10. Brandon
    The Twins are clearly in a 3 possibly 4 year window for contention with Buxton and Correa and Lopez under long term contracts and in prime playing years. We have Ober and Ryan for three more years Jax and Duran for 3 or 4 … I would add more weight to the value of these rankings if the goal is for the player to contribute to playoff pushes. Also I want to see the whole list before I find fault with these rankings. Nick usually does a good job on these and I usually have to nitpick so I am just waiting to see the final list.
  11. Brandon
    Don’t despair over the lack of transactions. Bargain Bin season is almost upon us. Sure we will trade Paddack and try to trade Dobnak but a Polanco discount / value rebuilding contract is just around the corner. Someone who can play first maybe and a little bit at other positions too. But Seth is right, the Twins don’t have many if any needs at the moment.
  12. Brandon
    Guys the Twins have a pretty stable roster at the moment. I don’t expect much the next theee offseason either maybe a trade of a player for prospects with a player ready to come up from the minors thing. Also the AL Central is gearing up for the bargain bin shopping bonanza before the start of the season. Kansas City only needs complimentary players some offense that can hit above league average and a few relievers Cleveland can sign Polanco for 2B, Detroit was talking with Flaherty I think and can probably get by with another offensive player or two off the discount rack. Detroit is the only competitive team that really needs a player like Bergman at 3B. So get ready for the discounted dollar store shopping spree coming soon to the AL Central. Be there or miss the offseason…. I guess.
  13. Brandon
    And here is a scary thought. If we sign this guy is one of Ober or Ryan on the trade block? If we have several minor league players ready to come up and this guy can be a lower cost placeholder and we get a great prospect or three it could be a move we make right?
  14. Brandon
    If we trade Paddack he could get a few starts to see if he can start in the majors 4 or 5 games before turning it over to Festa and moving him to the pen. You can never have too much pitching right?
  15. Brandon
    Baldelli has been at the helm for two Twins teams collapses at the end of the season. Granted injuries were the main culprit in both seasons having a team collapse twice is a good excuse to make a change. My question for this last season is why didn’t the Twins put Miranda on the DL? It seems clear he was affected by a HBP. He didn’t hit the rest of the season after that. But also Rocco doesn’t seem able to keep the team from getting down and staying there. He may have good development processes but the teams that should produce need to. I think Levine was on his way out anyways. I think that has more to do with the Twins scaling back costs and the stability of the roster. The pitching staff is mostly set for the next 3 seasons. Most of the lineup is as well. Our minor leagues have many prospects. What is Levine and Falvey going to do?
  16. Brandon
    I hope he has at least 3 more seasons and he gets into 500 games for his career. 500 games is a solid career
  17. Brandon
    I said this at the very beginning of the offseason. I’ll say it again here and now. Twins offseason: trade Paddack for cost savings and a mid level prospect, sign pitching depth to minor league deals, trade Dobnak if possible, possibly sign a 1B maybe a backup RH OF. I think Polanco could be resigned for a low cost and can play multiple positions of need if we don’t resign Santana. End of offseason. What we really need next season is for our top talent to remain healthy for a change.
  18. Brandon
    If the Twins trade Lopez, they better get value back and include all of Vazquez salary in a trade. Maybe send a million or two max but that’s it. And for talent coming back it needs to include a hitter or C that is pre arbitration and a pitching prospect in high minors that is highly rated.. since we are trading Paddack we can take back a little salary in this trade so…..
  19. Brandon
    Need an inexpensive 1B..... This guy..... Yuli Gurriel
  20. Brandon
    Jeff Hoffman was let go for nothing. Ouch!
  21. Brandon
    Should either player decline offensively next season Santana can still add value on defense. He has the higher floor for next year. How much of a raise does he get? I do expect either Miranda or Julien to get some time at 1B next year. So Santana should get some time at DH and some time on the bench and maybe get 450 AB next season so more players get more playing time and Santana remains fresher for play.
  22. Brandon
    I’m not saying he won’t be a good owner but if he spent his whole life rooting for the Tigers….. and I don’t live in Minnesota anymore. I live 10 miles from Angels stadium.
  23. Brandon
    Matt Ishbia live in or around Pontiac Michigan His main company United Wholesale Mortgage is in Pontiac Michigan. He grew up there and went to college there. He has college team mates work for him there too.
  24. Brandon
    I’ve met Matt Ishbia a few times. He’s a positive high energy person. Was the last man on the bench in college ball. Knows how to win and has the Pohlads loyalty/ family vibe to the workplace. You will like him as the owner only concern is he is based out of Detroit. Ishbia took a small mortgage wholesaler and made them in some respects the largest lender in the Nation. He runs his company off of 6 principles. I don’t remember them but thumbs for I’m responsible and people are your biggest resource. I’m going to go visit his company again soon. Hopefully in January. Let me know if you want me to ask any questions
  25. Brandon
    I can totally see this happening especially when our current OF consists of Larnarch, Buxton, and Wallner with Emmanuel Rodriguez and walker Jenkins getting closer and closer to debuting by the day.. we also have Castro as well on a one year 6 million or so deal. There is plenty of room to lock up another OF for 3 years. Makes perfect sense to me 🤡
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