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Brandon

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Everything posted by Brandon

  1. Brandon
    Here is a fun stat. The Twins have paid Paddack through the end of this season 12.525 million for his time with the Twins. So far he has pitched 167.2 innings with a 4.56 ERA. He has 142 Ks and 43 BBs. His ERA is skewed by 3 or 4 bad starts. He could throw another 100 innings this season. Let’s just say he throws 60 with an ERA around the expected 3.75. I would say 230 innings of 4.4 ERA is a solid value. I feel pretty good with where we are now with his numbers vs his salary. Overall Paddack has been what we paid him to be and possibly/ likely a little more.
  2. Brandon
    It’s good to be negative to kill the good vibes while things are going good. How dare the Twins fans enjoy the good run Paddacks on right now. We should all be reigned to a life of failure and lower expectations. Success from Paddack is nothing to see here…. Move along….. He will be bad any minute now just wait. Can the author point out good things in his metrics or explain that there are successful outliers despite the numbers? What are your overall expectations from Paddack? Mine is 120-140 innings of 3.5-4.00 ERA. He is killing that right now. So he has plenty of built in regression and still beat my expectations for him. He has already justified his salary for the season. I don’t know about you but I’m just enjoying the ride.
  3. Brandon
    Kody Clemens is hitting extra bases at a similar rate to Aaron Judge. Kody has 10 XBH in 47 AB. That is over 100 XBH over a full 162 games Also who had Harrison Bader and Kody Clemens as 2 of the teams top 4 hitters in OPS on the team. 1. Kody 2 Byron Buxton 3. Wallner 4. Bader.
  4. Brandon
    Our offense is good when everyone is healthy. Missing Buxton, Wallner, and Keaschal and we just got Correa and Lewis back. That’s most of our offensive talent.
  5. Brandon
    It’s good to get value from your education, especially when you can recognize the pinnacle moment when all of those years of school come together to give you the perfect Article title. 😎🤣 I don’t expect the Royals to be competitive by the end of the year without more offense.
  6. Brandon
    Pablo was helped by a terrible offense. They only have 2 hitters worth anything.
  7. Brandon
    My point was that Polanco had a 13 million contract or so and to make the deal work for Seattle Minnesota had to take some cash back in the deal and that’s fine cash back in the deal was DeSclafini. I imagine the Twins probably Tried to get away with only taking 3 million of his salary so they would have more to offer Santana but didn’t get it.
  8. Brandon
    They had to eat that salary to make the trade hence Gonzalez was included. I really liked the creativity of the trade. I doubt anyone was expecting Topa and DeSclafani to be hurt the full year. I was thinking we would get around 20 starts give or take from Desclafini and most if not the whole year of health from Topa.
  9. Brandon
    I would only say the Twins saved 5.625 million in the trade. I include the Santana signing because it happened literally the next day for the exact amount we saved in the deal. It’s a grey area so you can just say the Twins saved 5.625 million in the deal and that’s fine because the Twins required less value for a good return because they now had less cash outlay. Around 40% less then what Polanco was paid.
  10. Brandon
    I don’t take Kansas City too seriously as their offense is beyond bad. Their pitching will keep them competitive but they will end up below .500 if they don’t find some offense. Their pitching Twins have more talent than Cleveland so it’s on the Twins to finish the season ahead of them. Clemens and Vasquez and Bride have sure done a good job so far turning our bench around. From beyond awful to great. For all of the talk of injuries on the team, our pitching has been pretty healthy this season. Only a hiccup to Lopez and Coloumbe even have any of them on the DL at all. GO TWINS!
  11. Brandon
    A couple of notes. 1. You failed to mention the Twins saved 5.625 million in that trade and immediately signed Santana for that amount to play 1B last season. While not in the trade, we clearly had that signing prenegotiated subject to this trade occurring. So you can kinda count Santana’s contributions too. (That is a grey area).. 2. Once Polanco became a free agent the trade link is broken. He is now a free agent signing. The value from Polanco is from Free Agency. Counting his contributions from this year is (also a grey area) because you could say that Seattle only signed him because they knew him from last year being on the team. Based on these factors, the Twins won the trade hands down. But yes both teams are getting good value from the players in the trade this season. Gonzales could be our future LF, 1B, or DH. And we have another season of Topa after this one too.
  12. Brandon
    12 games ago the Twins were on pace for a 64 win season from a 13-20 record. Now they are on a 90 win pace 12 games later. 25-20.
  13. Brandon
    Kansas City Royals and Cleveland Guardians are two teams I believe are getting results above their talent level. I expect them to return to the mean. Detroit well I can’t tell but their team seems to be firing on all cylinders.
  14. Brandon
    I was saying that as of the time of signing. I am sure the plan was to have him start but if he ended up in a bench role due to lack of success, France could still be of value as a bench player. or He is not a loss if he played bad and was let go. He has earned a longer leash as a starter. I do think Wallner and Keaschall and Lewis and Lee all up and hitting could spell France some to keep the rookies developing in the lineup though. Not saying thats how it will play out but its in the realm of possibilities.
  15. Brandon
    I actually like the Pohlads. While their message doesn’t come through well at all, they are consistent and do spend some on payroll. They have done what they said they would do if we built the stadium. That being said I would be happy if the Twins could get their payroll up to 180-190 million range. But that has more with broadcasting revenue and I put that on the owners for their failure to creatively work through the revenue issues.
  16. Brandon
    There is more to it than what you have written. The goal is team building and how it’s done with the resources available. Like compare the records of similar payroll teams and compare total results from their allocation of resources over time. 1 year is not enough but 3 or 5 seasons and you can compare trends and successes. I guarantee the Twins are one of the best teams at identifying and developing scrap heap relievers and getting the most out of them at minimal costs. Also the Twins have done a good job of developing pitching. We are 5th in MLB and 3rd best staff on AL right now. Also we seem to have lots of injuries. And with players like Rooker who improved after moving on but the Twins knew he could be successful….. And I will add this. While he is at 8 years, and we should have a nice pipeline of prospects coming up, Development was halted at his current midpoint for a full season for COVID. COVID doesn’t buy him any forgiveness moving forward but we also had a nice crop of graduates to MLB too with some good ones on the way. Wallner, Larnarch, Jeffers, Lee, Lewis, Ryan, Ober, Woods-Richardson, Varland, Duran, Jax, Sands. Some of these guys were traded for and developed on the farm. But if you are not counting Rooker who we drafted then you can count the ones we traded for and developed. on the way is Keaschall, Jenkins and Rodriguez…… and so on and so on….
  17. Brandon
    Good stuff. Now we just need 4 more top 100 prospects side like pitching, you can never have too many many top 100 prospects. On a more serious note. It’s cool to learn more about our players and prospects and their skill set.
  18. Brandon
    France for 1 million is basically a bench player/ option for playing time that you don’t feel bad if you cut loose. He is starting and hitting ok. Not great but solid and at 1 million that’s a good value. Miranda or Keaschall or both could easily push Ty down the depth chart and injuries are preventing that from happening. Wallner injury helps Ty too because Bader is worth more playing time right now which could push Larnarch or Wallner into more DH or 1B duty taking time away from Ty.
  19. Brandon
    Coulombe was always a solid signing at 3 million. The question with him is how much of the season will he be available? Ty France at 1 million is throwing mud against the wall to see if he sticks. He is out hitting Santana at 1/12th the price. He was signed at a price to be a bench player. Bader is great defensively and the offense is higher than advertised and the small sample size keeps growing. Even if he regresses to a .750 OPS that’s a big upgrade for him. these guys were signed to be role players but are taking on larger roles. And these guys are clearly a good if not great value for their cost.
  20. Brandon
    The Twins starting rotation is currently the 1987 version of Nolan Ryan. he led the league in ERA 2.76 and went 8 - 16 with 270 strike outs in 211.67 innings.
  21. Brandon
    Correa started in a slump. He is 13 for his last 37. He will be fine. THe issues with the lineup has been injuries (Wallner, Keaschall, and Lewis and Castro) slumps Correa to start the season and Julien, and Velazquez) and the bench has been atrocious. Normally the bench is almost as good as the regulars but not this year. Bader would be a great bench bat except he is full time right now, Castro has been hurt. Gasper hasnt hit not has Velazquez, Keirsay hasnt hit, Julien nope though he got stuck starting.... Though there is hope on the horizon. Lewis is back and moves Lee to 2B and Castro is also back. If Correa continues to hit.... our offense could be better moving forward. We still need that one big bat that Wallner provides so hope he comes back soon. I did want to point out that Ty France is out hitting Santana who signed with Cleveland for 12 million vs the 1 million France got. Our pitching has been good overall. Paddack and Ober had 1 really bad start each that is skewing their numbers. Jax has been bad and Steward has recently and Alcala seems to be pitching better too. otherwise the staff has pitched pretty good.
  22. Brandon
    i think the thought process was 4 years at 9 million locks in a pitching spot where he could be a 5th starter with a mid 4 ERA or a multi inning reliever and if he had 1 season of around a 150 innings with a 4 -4.5 ERA and a few season relieving he would have been worth the contract. and if he had that 150 inning season the year they signed him he may have had a big arbitration number which would make the Twins drop him sooner if he was in the pen and not starting.
  23. Brandon
    Dobnak was paid to be a multi-inning reliever and the bonus was if he could continue starting when he signed that contract. Hopefully he gets more opportunities and is able to give us some value and be able to get a deal for next year for somebody and keep going. maybe a split contract. but anyways it wouldn't take much for us to recoup over half the value of this contract this year if he gets more opportunities and that would be nice.... or just to be worth the 3 million we are spending on him.
  24. Brandon
    The 2-4 Twins are in a 5 way tie for 1rst place in the AL Central. Bader is on pace for 81 HR and 216 RBI and he has 40% of the team RBI total. Wili Castro is tied for the bullpen ERA lead with a scoreless appearance. Ober has a 4.125 WHIP Alcala is averaging 27 K's per 9 innings 3 pitchers on our roster have an ERA over 24.00 (Take out those 3 performances and our team ERA drops from 5.40 too 2.09) Christian Vazquez is 0 for 10 with no BB or HBP and is tied for the league lead in caught stealing
  25. Brandon
    The Rocco question is the hardest one for me. I want to say yes, but we have had 2 massive collapses under his leadership. the kind of collapse that 1 usually gets a manager fired. So it's hard to say. Anything less than a playoff spot or at least 90 wins if we don't go to the playoffs this year should put his job in jeopardy.
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