Riverbrian

Agreed

In regards to the decision to walk Ohtani. I get it and if I'm honest... I probably would have done the same thing with the combination of Ohtani at the plate and Ruiz on deck. However, if you really want to get the math out... The Math probably won't check out in regards to this decision. With one out needed to conclude the game and a runner on first base. Ohtani has a .377 OBP. That alone suggests a .62% chance of getting Ohtani out regardless of his talent. Unless there is a stolen base from Betts. Ohtani would require an extra base hit to score Betts in that situation and tie the game. He has 56 extra base hits on the year in 465 plate appearances. According to those numbers there is a 12% chance of that happening. In regards to Ruiz... He's a small sample size this year with 17 Plate Appearences with an on base percentage of .294. It doesn't mean much with such a small sample but assuming he's a legit .294 OBP guy. He is a 71% chance of making an out and not extending the game. 62% chance compared to a 71% is pretty large difference in the game of baseball... however... in one individual AB it really isn't much at all. The next thing to look at is what changes with run expectancy. Two outs with a runner on 1st and 2nd after the Ohtani walk is a 34% run expectancy. Two out with a runner on 1st is a 21% run expectancy. I could really use some sabermetric guy to really check the math and break it down better but on the back of this napkin... it sure does appear that the benefit of facing Ruiz compared to Ohtani is negated by placing the tying run in scoring position and putting the winning run on the base paths. With all that said... It's Ohtani and Ruiz... I probably would have walked Ohtani as well just because the choice is Ohtani or Ruiz so I don't fault Rocco for possibly over reacting to someone who might be the best player in baseball right now.

Yet interesting that we lost two out of three to perhaps the worst team in the game and followed that with being an umpire call from winning two out of three from perhaps the best team in baseball. That's baseball... the margins are thin.

It's the people who hire the people. Job isn't getting done? Who can do something about it? It's the people who hire the people.

I do wonder if Ohtani is intentionally walked with Duran on the mound. That "doesn't matter who is at the plate" closer mentality is alive and well in today's game. Has Jax not earned this bulldog badge? With that said... Walking Ohtani is justifiable because it's Ohtani and it's Ruiz on deck. However... it's only justifiable because Ruiz was on deck. Once Jax walked Ruiz on incredibly non-competitive pitches. Any potential benefit of the Ohtani walk was immediately negated and flipped to a huge mistake because Freeman was in the hole following Ruiz. i watched Jax throw to Ruiz like he was Ohtani. Watching that AB... I'm talking back to the television after every pitch. "What are you doing Griffin? What are you doing?". Obviously... he couldn't hear me.

You consistently fail to understand my points. And you do so belligerently. Place me on block and stay clear. Asking me Who... Is another example of your failure to understand. Who? Exactly!!! That's my point. How can an organization with budget issues fail to produce sufficient numbers in comparison with their peers. Who? Exactly!!! You want me to name a player so you can tear them to pieces. I'm sorry I don't trust my opinion on Who? And I certainly don't trust yours. I don't even trust the front office to identify the player or players because here we are talking about Brooks Lee needing to be fixed while Brooks Lee is the only player they are investing playing time in, we are about to sell at the deadline and our budget is maxed out so we can't afford to sign players developed by other organizations. I just know that other teams are producing WHO'S. Therefore WHO IS MY POINT!!! You just keep tearing apart the individuals. You want to keep hammering on Larnach... Keep hammering... Your opinion has no interest to me. My point isn't about Larnach specifically... It's about Larnach, Wallner, Kirilloff, Julien and now Clemens over the past 3 years. It's about every left handed hitter to come through these doors in the past 3 years. Why can't we develop a left handed hitter that doesn't require a right handed hitting handcuff? Other teams can do this sort of thing... we can't. That's my point... It's not about Larnach but you want to hammer on Larnach. I have no interest. Jonah Bride... I could give a whatever about Jonah Bride... But I didn't give him a roster spot. When I talk about Jonah Bride burning a roster spot... I'm not pro Jonah Bride... I'm talking about the roster spot on a team that is failing to produce WHO's. Bride gets a roster spot because we have failed for multiple years now to develop a WHO!!! Why isn't there a WHO? Go ahead and continue to lose your mind over Martin. I could care less what your opinion of Martin is... I don't care what my opinion of Martin is. If Martin is not the guy... OK... Fine... THEN WHO IS THE GUY!!! According to this article... Brooks Lee may not be the guy either. Which I find interesting because the Twins have clearly chosen Lee as someone to trust. If Brooks Lee doesn't work out... well there goes almost our entire development effort for the past 3 years down the drain. But... Hey Let's pull that plug at the first sign of trouble. Now please... put me on block.

And the end result of that is a severe lack of developed players that has built up over years of not making them a priority in a playoff race.

I find it interesting that the Twins will hand select one or two prospects and are willing to ride the ups and downs with them... but others not so much. All offensive development eggs are in a basket labeled Brooks Lee. Very few others are allowed a basket. If Brooks Lee fails... That's it... you put everything you had into Brooks Lee. I guess Luke Keaschall will have to save the day so you can claim you produced one player over the past few years. WIth that said... he struggling right now. Players struggle from time to time. I'm not worried about it. Keep playing him... it doesn't have to be every day playing time... but keep playing him... develop him... my god please... develop something.

There are plenty of folks on this website who think the loss of Rooker was justified. The 40 man pressure that you are talking about and the 26 man rules and regulation certainly played a role in that loss. It played a role with the Royals and the Padres as well.

In regards to the original post. I think it was a fantastic post and something that needed to be said. I'm glad Trov said it. It won't raise much debate because in my opinion, it can't be argued with and those who attempt to debate it are probably not considering it nor inclined to consider it but they should be looking at it and looking at it hard. The GM or POBO job is extremely difficult. The CBA lays out clear limitations that make individual roster decisions for the 40 man or 26 man impossible to get 100% correct and I will contend until the Cows come home that there are a handful of superstars out there and there are handfull of players with no business in the major leagues. The rest are a big collection of players in the middle. Front offices must make these individual roster decisions in the face of additional filters such as trying to win right now. Projections, not past results but future performance because we assume the coaching staff is actively working with all players to get better and improve past performance. Front office has budget considerations because all teams have a budget, they have to work with what other teams want in terms of our excess talent and how they assess our talent. Players ping pong... sample sizes need to be built... the margins are thin and hard lines and decisions have to be drawn. I've been saying for multiple years that these roster spots are gold and should be treated as such. Intelligent posters can't understand my point about Bride just wasting a roster spot as I come across as some Bride Fan and the poster just doesn't like Jonah Bride. When I'm talking about the value of the roster spot and wasting it while Ty France plays every day because we haven't developed Ty France level. I mainly refer to the 26 man spots that are available because that's the the first filter from the 40 man that players have to get through in order to improve the current team now and in the future. Regardless everything Trov is saying about the 40 man is correct. Admittedly my response to your post was talking about the 26 man roster holes and the budget remaining to fill those off-season holes and how it might play a role in our deadline decisions... which in my opinion is germaine to the topic... But OK, let's go to the 40 man. Trov is correct. Actually, he is off by one but his point remains valid and I'm not going to split hairs. They currently have two players on the 60 day for a total of 42. Keaschall and Lopez are on the 60. Tonkin accepted outright assignment about a month ago. Some of our current 40 man players will be easy calls to jettison to make room but not a bunch. Come December the Twins will have to consider additions to the 40 man or risk losing the player per CBA rules. I'm not going to project who I think the Twins will add out of names like Lewis, Morris, Schobel, De Andrade, G. Gonzalez, Prelipp and others but if the Twins feels there is a chance of any of them being claimed... they got to roster them. It's another filter attached to all trade considerations. Trov is correct. The Twins have put themselves in a position of being squeezed at the top financially because the budget is maxed out and will be maxed out next year and then squeezed on the 40 man at the bottom in terms of rising prospects plus the addition of whoever we acquire in sell mode. In the middle of all of that squeezing, we have watched our farm products crash against a major league wall resulting in the starting of this season with 8 pre-arb players which is well below the majority of our competition so you kind of wonder if it matters at all. AND HERE IT IS JULY and we have Keaschall and... and... umm... Travis Adams? that have auditioned for next year to add to the 5 pre-arb players (Wallner, Festa, Richarson, Varland and Lee) that we think will be with us next year. We have no major league information on players to get us up to 10 or 13 or 18 like other clubs and 40 MAN DECISIONS to make starting right now with this trade deadline. The 26 man is the critical point but it all starts with the 40 man. I'm scared for our future when I start wondering what's the point of gathering additional prospects in sell mode when the Twins are seemingly only willing to fully commit to only the bare minimum of players making the bare minimum resulting in the situation we are in now. Discussing on TwinsDaily the trade of Joe Ryan for prospects as Ty France and Christian Vazquez are played like superstars.

While I strongly disagree with the "what are our realistic chances in the playoffs" reasoning. I do agree that I don't like our odds of reaching. For 2026... We will have at least 7 26 man roster spots to fill based on our current expiring contracts. The money saved on those contracts will be spent on arbitration raises. I don't have any expectation that a new owner will drastically increase pay roll. I have no reason to think the Twins manager or front office are comfortable just flooding the roster with an increase of youth to fill the roster spots. So I'm guessing an additional move beyond the expiring contracts to free up additional money... that can be spread thinly across the open spots on the roster this off-season.

With the DFA of Lou Trevino and the call up of a young bullpen arm. The Dodgers have risen from 10 to 11 players with less than 3 years experience on their 26 man roster. The Twins arrived at Dodger Stadium with 10 players. The Dodgers have a record of 59-42 The Twins have a record of 48-52 I post these pre-arb totals once a series to illustrate how our Twins compare to the other 29 teams in terms of young affordable talent. The reason I am doing this is to show how the Twins have fallen behind in regards to development. To show that the Twins are building their roster in a similar fashion to the Dodgers and Phillies (without Dodger and Phillies Money) while the Tigers and Brewers have double the pre-arb totals. I always post the records to fairly show the results of the efforts. To show that youth doesn't mean wins and more importantly show that youth doesn't mean losses. To show that not every team are the Brewers on the high end and not every team are the Twins on the low end. In the end, the Twins are spending 30 to 50 million a year to cover this development shortfall.

I was going to post that when we play the Dodgers. I've been doing it once a series... So for those who want to wait until then... Spoiler Alert... STOP READING HERE: As of July 19 the answer is 10 - The exact same number as the Twins have today. The Twins are in a similar situation as the Dodgers without similar money.

The Rockies 26 man roster contains 15 Pre-Arb players. The Twins arrived in Denver with 10 Pre-Arb players The Twins are currently 47-50 The Rockies are 23-74

The second sentence says it. Third sentence... I'm not ready to throw in that towel... but I'm doing arm exercises just in case I have to give it a chuck. These strength of schedule attempts at analysis are fun and even interesting... but like your 2nd sentence accurately states. If your team is playing well... it isn't going to matter much who they play. If your team isn't playing well... it isn't going to matter much who they play. That goes for all 29 teams. If you catch the Rockies when they are playing well. If you catch the Dodgers when they are not. One game at a time... put your cleats on. Worry about your own business.

This is such a good sentence and it should be repeated over and over. This sentence speaks volumes. If they don't think they have the players on the farm. They should tender their resignations because apart from wins. Having the players in their system is the single most important job that they have. If the players don't exist... they haven't done the job required.

As Fonsie would say: Exactamundo. Or was that Laverne or Shirley? If you want to extend Jose Ramirez you have to develop Jose Ramirez. And in addition to that... you have to be able to afford the extension. And you can't afford the extension because your roster is filled with players in arbitration or one year free agent necessities because you are light on players that don't cost money. For a team going for it... Why is trading Joe Ryan a legitimate discussion? It's a legitimate discussion because Arb raises are going to eat up the majority of money coming off the books and we still have 7 to 9 roster holes that need to be filled. So the answer is to: A. Trade Joe Ryan to free up cash to fill the 8 other holes that need filling. B. Trade Duran and Jax to free up the cash to keep Joe Ryan and still have the problem with the 8 other holes that need filling. C. Sell everything not nailed down. Buxton and Correa are nailed down and surround those two with the future in an all at once fashion. If the answer is C... I'm going to ask for a new front office to lead us through this since the reason answer C is the option is because of their development failure. An influx of players that need development in the hands of people who are not developing is like turning the faucet on with the drain wide open. One last point... that fits what we are talking about. How does Dombrowski get fired in Boston? He won a world series and gets fired. How is that possible? It's possible he got fired because he had left himself with nothing coming from the farm... while payroll continued to increase. Payroll was maxed out... the team had a down year. The owner asks him how to fix it and he has no choice but to ask for more money because he burnt down the cheaper option avenue. Enter Bloom to reset the franchise. Which he does despite some additional down years as the Red Sox are now in the process of bringing in multiple high end players making the minimum. Bloom will get the Cards farm producing... Bank on it. Dombrowski is doing well in Philly but seems to be a little more attentive to the farm this time around.

Things are rarely black and white so it's probably a combination of both things you list... plus other stuff we haven't even thought of. I have no idea what specifically is wrong inside the operation but something is wrong. I'll start with a premise that could play a major role in there decision making. I could be right... I could be wrong but here goes. The Twins are going for it... right now... That's it... that's the premise... and they have been going for it for many years now . That mindset is the path they have chosen... going for it and NOT quite getting there potentially causing a sacrifice of tomorrow. Nothing wrong with going for it... a rebuild isn't necessarily necessary. The problem is that the Brewers, Rays and Cleveland are also going for it with a completely different approach. I was guessing that the Brewers were going to rebuild after trading Corbin Burnes. They didn't. They just capably replaced Corbin Burnes with players from their system. They had faith in what they were doing on the development side. The Twins don't display that same faith toward THEIR own development. Why? I don't know but it's the crux of the problem in my eyes. Why is that? Is it their belief that they need seasoned players in order to consistently go for it and limiting opportunity from the farm or are they looking at their pile of players on the farm and not liking what they see. Either way... it's a development problem and ultimately we are low on pre-arb players while the Brewers have double the amount and still going for it.

Absolutely... Have your Coors and get a Blue Moon at the spot it was first brewed. While you are enjoying those 10 to 20 beers at the stadium... Get the Elvis Shake. It's not something you are going to make at home and you can't find it at the local Dairy Queen or Cold Stone. Despite the unique combination of ingredients (Banana Ice Cream, Peanut Butter, Caramel Corn and Bacon). It actually tastes OK... but... admittedly you'll be braver to try one after 8 beers. If you drive yourself to Coors Field... Rental Car or road tripping in a Kia like I did. I'll pass along that downtown Denver is a nice walk in the summer time, the parking was plentiful and progressively cheaper as you drive away from the stadium. I found a nice spot with a nice walk for a very reasonable price by not pulling into the first location I saw.

It's hard for us mere mortals. Myself I've reached the point where I believe we have a development problem based on an imperfect system. Simply counting the younger players on every team on the 26 man roster to start the season and the numbers on every team once the injuries and call up start happening. It's unfair for me to judge with this basic approach because I'm not counting stats on the younger players and adding them up for a measurement of production. I'm counting the numbers for financial reasons and the obvious budget that our team must adhere to. In order to really measure... you'd have to take their numbers add them together and average them out and compare them to the vets. Lots of data entry involved so make sure you have drinks and snacks nearby. If anybody did this type of research... I'd be absolutely interested in the results. But it would have to be comprehensive... All 30 teams. That will only get you so far because you still have the unanswerable question of who gets credit for the development. In the case of trades... Did Ryan develop with the Rays or did the Twins find something. Did Ryan find it on his own or did the Twins development team find something. In the meantime... Yet while unfair... It's also fair because I'm sitting here wondering how the Twins are so low on pre-arb players and how the Brewers are beating us and others with double the amount. The Brewers have two major league rotations right now. The one in Milwaukee and the one in Nashville that would probably be better than 5 teams in the majors right now. The Twins have the vet presence of teams like the Phillies but we don't spend that kind of money. Milwaukee could trade Joe Ryan and not miss a beat. As a matter of fact... they have traded Corbin Burnes, Josh Hader, Devin Williams and seem to come out of it stronger every time and for 30 million dollars less than the Twins spend. 30 Million... that's one BIG FREE AGENT that the Twins could add to the roster. Why do we need to trade Joe Ryan... Not to copy the Brewers... but to plug the holes that the farm isn't filling because we are not copying the Brewers... we are more like the Phillies.

The trade of Joe Ryan doesn't mean the end of 2025 for the Twins. It just makes us more uncomfortable and less optimistic because it's a name we know and trust. If it's possible to be less optimistic in consideration of the current state of optimism expressed on Twinsdaily. The Red Sox were 36-36 when they traded Rafael Devers. Alex Bregman was also on the injured list. They have gone 16-8 since. The trade of Joe Ryan doesn't mean the end sometimes it means the beginning. With that said... if the Twins trade Joe Ryan... If they trade Joe Ryan. They better do a better job with the young prospects acquired then they have done with their own farm raised prospects. It's important to note... very important to note that the primary reason that a Joe Ryan trade can be justified in July of 2025 is because they haven't done a good job raising their young for many years now. If they struggle with the raising of their own young... bringing them more young to raise seems to be a bad idea... it would be like trying to collect water in your sink with the drain wide open.

This is everything in a one sentence. Playing Ty France every day like he's Freddie Freeman or Pete Alonso is a neon sign.

Correct and Clemens is probably only getting the opportunity to be stuck with because he had that two week stretch where he was one of the best hitters in baseball. Without that... he would be no different than Jonah Bride. That's why I can't fault them entirely for playing the long game. You kind of have to because trying to time the streaks is probably impossible. Want to bench Royce Lewis because he has been below terrible for a long stretch. You might sit him down right when he is just about to come out of it. Clemens is hot now... Clemens just went cold... Hey He's hot again. Clemens and everyone will go hot and cold over the course of a season. Dare I say it... Buxton will probably fall for a stretch this year. However, for these very same reasons... I will fault them when they glue someone to the bench because they don't know who is going to go Kody Clemens for a stretch. If you got a hitter in hot streak... keep playing them until they cool down. If you got a hitter in a rough patch... play him... just not as much. If a hitter reaches June hasn't woken up. You got to start thinking about alternatives and possibly acting on those alternatives.

Every year there is going to be a discrepancy between expected and actual in regards to each individual player. Pleyers ping pong up and down throughout the season and they ping pong year by year. It's hard to get it right. Right or Wrong (I'm not saying it's right or wrong)... the Twins will consistently play the long game in hopes of a better 2nd half from those they expect to perform when it's all said and done. By long game I mean... they will ride with the players they expect to perform until they actually do... or the clock runs out on the season and they don't. Sometimes they bounce back... a lot of times they just don't. It doesn't matter to me what everyone thinks of Kody Clemens. I wasn't comfortable with his acquisition at the time it happened and that also doesn't matter. Many are thinking he will turn back into a pumpkin eventually and maybe he will... maybe he won't but that also doesn't matter. On the year thus far. Only two players have an OPS over .800... Buxton and Clemens. In the past 30 days. Clemens has the 2nd highest OPS on the team. His batting average isn't amazing but 6 bombs in 50 AB's in the past 30 days (most of them clutch) and he has been our 2nd best hitter. The key is 50 AB's in the past 30 days compared to Ty France with his 73 AB's in the past 30 days with a .228 OPS and an even worse .274 slug. Has Rocco finally chosen Clemens over France? Not entirely but Clemens did make 3 starts at 1B (plus 1 at 2B) in the past 5 games all vs. Righties. 2 for France in that time frame. Jeffers and Vazquez... Pretty much equal playing time as they split those catching duties right down the middle. One has a .468 slug over the last 30 days and the other has .098... I'll let you all figure out who is who but those catching duties remain split right down the middle with Jeffers getting some extra DH work against left handed pitchers. Correa and Lewis were supposed to hitters... Doesn't matter if they are not... They get every day playing just like they are. The Twins will stay with them until they prove the Twins right for playing them every day. Bottom Line: The Twins tend to choose the guys they like best and they sink or swim with them. They will absorb a lot of sinking waiting for the occasional swim.

I'd be alright with you in charge.